TWENTY-SIX
On Friday, October 30, four days before the election, Chairman Milley examined the latest sensitive intelligence. What he read was alarming: The Chinese believed the United States was going to attack them.
Milley knew it was untrue. But the Chinese were on high alert, and whenever a superpower is on high alert, the risk of war escalates. Asian media reports were filled with rumors and talk of tensions between the two countries over the Freedom of Navigation exercises in the South China Sea, where the U.S. Navy routinely sails ships in areas to challenge maritime claims by the Chinese and promote freedom of the seas.
There were suggestions that Trump might want to manufacture a “Wag the Dog” war before the election so he could rally the voters and beat Biden.
Miscommunications were often the seeds of war. In 1987, Admiral William J. Crowe, chairman of the Joints Chiefs under President Ronald Reagan, had established a back-channel relationship with the head of the Soviet Union’s military, to avoid an accidental war. Crowe had not informed President Reagan about his decision to take national security into his own hands and work directly with Marshal Sergei Akhromeyev, the chief of the Soviet General Staff.
Milley was aware his immediate predecessors, Generals Martin Dempsey and Joseph Dunford, had set up similar back-channel arrangements with the heads of the military in Russia and China. And in a time of crisis, Milley knew he could dial up Russian General Valery Gerasimov or General Li Zuocheng of the People’s Liberation Army.
This was such a moment. While he often put a hold on or stopped various tactical and routine U.S. military exercises that could look provocative to the other side or be misinterpreted, this was not a time for just a hold. He arranged a call with General Li.
Trump was attacking China on the campaign trail at every turn, blaming them for the coronavirus. “I beat this crazy, horrible China virus,” he told Fox News on October 11. Milley knew the Chinese might not know where the politics ended and possible action began.
To give the call with Li a more routine flavor, Milley first raised mundane issues like the staff-to-staff communications and methods for making sure they could always rapidly reach each other.
Finally, getting to the point, Milley said, “General Li, I want to assure you that the American government is stable and everything is going to be okay. We are not going to attack or conduct any kinetic operations against you.
“General Li, you and I have known each other for now five years. If we’re going to attack, I’m going to call you ahead of time. It’s not going to be a surprise. It’s not going to be a bolt out of the blue.
“If there was a war or some kind of kinetic action between the United States and China, there’s going to be a buildup, just like there has been always in history.
“And there’s going to be tension. And I’m going to be communicating with you pretty regularly,” Milley said. “So this is not one of those times. It’s going to be okay. We’re not going to have a fight.”
“Okay,” General Li said, “I take you at your word.”
Milley instantly realized how valuable and important a channel he had. In a few minutes, he had been able to deescalate and avoid miscommunication that could lead to an incident or even a war between the U.S. and China.
Milley could see the Lincoln Memorial from Quarters 6, his home. Arlington National Cemetery was nearby.
“I’ve buried 242 kids up here,” he later told others one Saturday morning. “I’m not really interested in having a war with anybody.
“I’ll defend the country if it’s necessary. But war, the military instrument, must be a last resort, not a first resort.”
He did not tell Trump about his call with General Li.
Just before the election, Milley reminded the chiefs that the post-election period—what he had labeled “Phase 2” in the Tank months earlier—would be the most dangerous period for the country, with an unnerving wait between the election and the January 6 certification of the results.
“If President Trump wins, then the street’s going to explode with riots and civil unrest. If President Trump loses, there’s going to be significant issues there about a contested election,” Milley said at a meeting.
There were hints of coming tumult in the streets. On social media, Trump’s campaign was pumping the idea of a military-style political clash. Mail-in ballots, which many states were using due to the pandemic, were being cast as fraudulent and the tools of conspiracy.
“We need you to join ARMY FOR TRUMP’s election security operation!” read one official Trump campaign post at the end of September, with Donald Trump Jr. imploring “every able-bodied man, woman” to enlist in the president’s “security” effort.
“Don’t let them steal it,” Trump Jr. said. “Enlist today.”