12 Crash: 2008 and its legacy (with an addendum by George Krimpas entitled ‘The Recycling Problem in a Currency Union’)
1 We found this out back in 2003 after publishing our basic argument. See Halevi and Varoufakis (2003a and 2003b).
2 The trickle-down theory is an old chestnut. It is actually the initial version of Adam Smith’s ‘invisible hand’ argument. In his Theory of Moral Sentiments (1759) Adam Smith writes: The rich only select from the heap what is most precious and agreeable. They consume little more than the poor, and in spite of their natural selfishness and rapacity, though they mean only their own conveniency, though the sole end which they propose from the labours of all the thousands whom they employ, be the gratification of their own vain and insatiable desires, they divide with the poor the produce of all their improvements. They are led by an invisible, hand to make nearly the same distribution of the necessaries of life, which would have been made, had the earth been divided into equal portions among all its inhabitants, and thus without intending it, without knowing it, advance the interest of the society, and afford means to the multiplication of the species. When Providence divided the earth among a few lordly masters, it neither forgot nor abandoned those who seemed to have been left out in the partition. These last too enjoy their share of all that it produces.’Smith (1759 [1982]), IV.i.10, pp. 184-5 (emphasis added).
3 For the relevant supporting tables, see Chapter 11. For additional evidence see Bernstein and Allegretto (2007) who demonstrate that, in the unregulated US labour market, hard work and investment in one’s human capital does not buy one a ticket out of poverty and into a higher social stratum. According to the latest figures from official US sources, social mobility is less correlated with educational accomplishment than ever before\ Mischel, Bernstein and Allegretto (2007). See also Rick Wolff for further supporting evidence: Wolff (2010).
4 Indeed, if we look at the 1977 to 1998 period, the real hourly wage of American workers (excluding the wages of corporate managers) fell by 14 per cent!
5 When unemployment broke the one million mark in 1975 this was a cultural shock in the UK, Thatcher in her election campaign promised to reduce unemployment with the famous Saatchi poster of a dole queue with the not too subtle pun ‘Labour isn’t working’. Eventually after endless
massaging of the unemployment statistics, 17 changes in all, of which only three were neutral and the rest reduced the number of unemployed statistically, unemployment trebled reaching in 198^ an all-time-post depression height of more than 10 per cent at 3 million unemployed with the massaged data.
6 Table 12.1 confirms that unit labour costs in Britain rose fast, more than 11 times as fast as in the United States. Even in the 1990s, British labour costs rose faster than in all other major developed countries.
7 These were essentially ‘stag’ issues that were heavily oversubscribed and hence rationed. TSB did not even belong to the British Government. In some cases, as with BP, the advisors to tiie government were also the underwriters of the issue; and disaster following a stock market crash prior to the scheduled IPO was averted by the government guaranteeing the price of the share. The public was encouraged to buy through mass TV advertisement (The ‘Tell Sid’ campaign of British Gas. for example). Joe Q. Public soon cashed his profits by selling the stocks which reverted to the hands of the usual investors thus ending the dreams of public capitalism. For a history of privatisation in the Thatcher era see David Parker (2009).
8 Volcker 2005.
9 Extracts from a speech given by Stephen Roach in New York on 12 May 2002, entitled 'World Think, Disequilibrium and the Dollar’. We first read that speech on Morgan Stanley's website, which no longer lists it. Quoted in Chesnais (2006), p. 50.
10 See also Lanchester (2006), Fishman (2006) and the 2005 documentary by Robert Greenwald entitled ‘Wal-Mart: The High Cost of Low Price’.
1 1 Which, although higher than the minimum wage in the United States, means that its workers live permanently under the poverty line.
12 Moreover, in a curious case of misogyny, Wal-Mart seems unwilling to promote its female workers. Apparently, the largest private lawsuit in US history involves Wal-Mart’s underpayment and failure to promote more than 1.5 million women workers.
13 Quoted from a radio interview in December 2008.
14 Figure 12.1 somewhat underplays the extent of Europe’s and Japan’s financing of the Minotaur by including Britain in the European camp, given that Britain was running (just like the United States).
15 See John Lanchester (2009).
16 See Black and Scholes (1973).
17 These include the Russian default of 1998, which we already mentioned, the collapse of LTCM in the same year, the contemporaneous major crisis in South-East Asia and, finally, the implosion of the dot.com or New Economy bubble in 2000-1.
18 See Markowitz (1952).
19 Toin (1958).
20 In effect, Black and Scholes openly threw out of court an economist’s approach, replacing it with an actuarial perspective. The Latins have an apt saying on this: Quod ah initio vitiosum est non posset ex post convalescere.
21 Li grew up in rural China in the 1960s. He studied economics at Nankai University before moving to Canada to complete an MBA at Laval University. Then he took an MA in Actuarial Science and gained a PhD in Statistics, both from the University of Waterloo. By the time the East Asian crisis was destroying LCTM, in 1997, he started working for the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, In 2004 he moved to Barclays Capital where he proceeded to build from scratch its quantitative analysis department.
22 In an interview he gave to Mark Whitehouse (see The Wall Street Journal, 12 September. 2005), well before the Crash of2008, Dr Li said that ‘the most dangerous part [of his formula], is when people believe everything coming out of it ... [V]ery few people understand the essence of the model.’ Whitehouse (2005).
23 Doubt about the constancy of y would have cost them their jobs, especially so given that their supervisors did not really understand the equation but were receiving huge bonuses while it was being used.
24 The following subsection draws heavily from two articles published in Monthly Review: Halevi and Lucareli (2002) and Flalevi and Varoufakis (2003a).
25 Indeed, from 1985 to 1987, the dollar devalued relative to the yen by more than 50 per cent.
26 The other purpose of Plaza was to accommodate the United States’ determination that its multinationals should play a larger role in the global electronics market that Japan and Germany threatened to dominate.
27 Indeed, during the period of real estate bubble the richest man in the world in Forbes list was a Japanese real estate magnate, Yoshiaki Tsutsumi. By 2007 he was removed from the billionaire’s list.
28 As for Britain, we leave it outside this taxonomy for reasons already alluded to above. Following its deindustrialisation, under the Thatcher government, the only thing standing between Britain and the magpies was the City of London; its pivotal position in the world of finance. In the aftermath of2008, perhaps it is time to include it in the magpies, albeit in a category of its own in view of the retention of its own currency.
29 France too was not very keen on sustained growth because successive governments, including the socialist administration of President Mitterrand, feared that growth would lead to further wage demands.
30 Recall (from Chapter 11) how in the 1940s and 1950s the Americans decided to set up the European branch of the institutions supporting the Global Plan in Paris, rather in the territory of their main protégé (Germany). The OEEC, which later turned into the OECD, is a case in point.
31 The actual plan for a common currency was essentially drafted by President Mitterrand and his ex-minister of finance, Jacques Delors, who had become (perhaps the only influential) head of the European Commission. Their motivation was to use the creation of the Euro as a means of getting around the ants’ neo-mercantilism and of exercising a modicum of control over Germany’s stringently deflationary monetary policies.
32 French philosopher Gilles Deleuze (1968) defines a simulacrum as the avenue by which an authority occupying a globally privileged position may be ‘challenged and overturned’. In his reading, a simulacrum is a ‘system ... in which different relates to different by means of difference itself. What is essential is that we find in these systems no prior identity, no internal resemblance’. See
. Gilles Deleuze (1968), pp. 372-3.
33 Wolfgang Münchau reported in the Financial Times of 21 March 2010 that: ‘Rainer Brüderle, economics minister, said last week there was nothing the government could do about demand because consumption was a decision taken by private individuals. A senior Bundesbank official even compared the Eurozone to a football league, in which Germany proudly held the number one slot.’ it is impossible to believe that anyone who has even thought of macroeconomics, let alone studied it, would draw such an inane comparison. Every single German economics minister, from the 1950s to this day, set out to ensure that aggregate demand is managed in such a way as to ensure that domestic consumption remains more or less constant (as a percentage of German income) and the additional aggregate demand that is necessary to maintain German capital accumulation is imported from the rest of Europe. Brüderle’s comments are simply a cynical statement symbolising Germany’s authoritarian refusal to enter into a sensible debate on the EU’s inacroeconomy.
34 The import dependency on technology sectors and also on durable goods is such that past pre-euro devaluations did not help improve the external position of these countries. Both Spain and Greece, but not Portugal, experienced higher than EU average growth rates. Spain’s growth was due to the insertion of the country into the international real estate market via the City of London. In the case of Greece its fiscal deficit enabled it to sustain an import oriented growth. In both instances the growth of domestic demand led to higher activity entailing yet more imports per capita.
35 At a time that Europe's magpies and France had to reckon also with growing deficits with Asia.
36 See also Jôrg Bibow (2009).
37 Meanwhile, the East of Germany had entered terminal decline. Bibow (2009) explains: ‘A population of 16 million in 1989 had collapsed to 12.5 million by 2008, and was set to fall further -perhaps much further - with the exodus of young women to the West. Between 1993 and 2008, no less than two-thirds of 18- to 29-year-olds born in the East had abandoned it. In the DDR, a leading writer from the region has remarked that buildings rotted, but they contained people who had work; now the buildings are brightly refurbished, and the people are dead or gone.’
38 The reader may point out that wages also rose in that same period by about 4 per cent. While this is a true average figure, it hides the fact that from 1995 to 2008 the bottom 25 per cent of workers (in terms of wages) saw a 14 per cent decline in their wages.
39 See Reinhart and Rogoff (2009).
40 Of all those books, we pick two at random to recommend to the reader: Kansas (2009) and Soros (2009).
41 The Treasury’s equity contribution of the S5 would actually come from something called TARp (the Troubled Assets Relief Program) whereas the Fed’s §50 would come from the FDJC (the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, founded by the New Dealers, as part of the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, in order to guarantee to depositors their savings in case of a bank failure). The Geithner-Summers Plan set aside §150 billion for TARP, $820 billion for FDIC and expected the private sector (hedge and pension fonds) to chip in S30 billion of their own money.
42 If the good scenario materialises, FTs return equals S15. If the bad good scenario materialises. H\ returns are zero. Should it take part in. this simulated market gain? The entry cost is $5. Suppose that the probability of the good scenario is p (where Q<p<\). H’s, expected returns from participating equal 15/? + 0(1 ~~p) = 15p. its cost from participating is a fixed $5. Clearly, it is on average a good idea to participate if 15p> 5, i.e. if p> 1/3. But if hedge funds estimate p to be less than 1/3. they would stay out.
43 Moreover, if by some miracle its subsidiary FT can sell c for more than $100, it will stand to gain an extra sum.
44 Vandana Shiva (2005), an Indian physicist and ecologist who directs the Research Foundation on Science, Technology, and Ecology offers a compelling explanation of the food crisis that had erupted in the developing nations just before the Crash of2008,
45 In 2008, just before all hell broke loose, the EU had an annual trade surplus with the United States in manufactures of €64 billion (with another €6 billion in services) while the net capital transfer from the EU to the United States came to €104.6 billion. While these figures pale into insignificance when compared to the zillions pumped by governments into the financial system in 2008, they reflect real money (as opposed to the monopoly money bandied about by Wall Street, central banks and governments in the context of financialisation and the states’ attempt to save ith
46 See Theil (2009).
47 The French banks, it must be noted, took advantage of the US government’s bailout of the financial sector. The bailout of AIG in particular saved their bacon, since a collapse of the American insurer would have translated into a French write off of hundreds of billions of dollars. This can be gleaned from what followed Lehman’s collapse. BNP-Paribas claimed around $1.3 billion dollars from the US government fund that oversaw the dismantling of Lehman Brothers; Société Generale $800 million and Dexia $400 million.
48 While the IMF was to charge less than 3 per cent for its €15 billion, the EZ-ECB loans (at Germany’s insistence) would be given at an interest rate of 5 per cent. In effect, a net transfer of wealth was being proposed from Athens to Berlin, since Germany would be able to borrow that money at less than 3 per cent and then re-iend it to Greece at 5 per cent. There is nothing like European solidarity to bring a tear to an outsider’s eye ...
49 The reader is reminded that Herbert Hoover was the US President in 1929, whose response to the Crash was a policy of belt-tightening; a policy that turned the Crash of 1929 into the Great Depression of the 1930s.
50 ‘Dr Melchior: A Defeated Enemy’, Keynes (1949 [1972]), p. 428.
51 We have replaced ‘Greek’ for German; ‘European’ for French and British; ‘Greece’ for Germany; ‘financial assistance package’ for Peace; ‘the 2008 crisis’ for war. See the ‘Introduction’ to John Maynard Keynes’s The Economic Consequences of the Peace. New York: Harcourt Brace, 1920.
52 Why do we claim that the EU-ECB-IMF package constitutes punishment, when all it reportedly does is to save Greece from bankruptcy? Because, we suggest, it does no such thing. With the exorbitant interest rates that it charges, and given its steadfast resistance to any renegotiation of Greece’s existing debt, it pushes Greece further into insolvency. Just as a cruel doctor might administer enough medicine to keep the patient alive for a while longer so that he/she keeps suffering more excruciating pain, but not enough medicine to prevent him/her from shuffling off the mortal coil, so too the EU-ECB-IMF package, as it stands, only prolongs the Greek state’s agony without preventing the inevitable bankruptcy. And when the bankruptcy comes, it will come at a time of a smaller national income and a higher overall debt level. It is not, therefore, unreasonable to describe this package as a punishment that is as cruel as it is unusual.
53 E.g. letting Greece default and allowing the ECB to bail out the banks (Greek, French and German).
54 We owe the problématique of this subsection, its title and quite a few complete sentences to George Krimpas.
55 From Virgil’s Aeneid (11.49). The most common English translation is ‘Whatever this is, beware of the Greeks even if they are bearing gifts’. The popular German translation quoted here paraphrases Virgil to say: ‘Beware of false friends’.
56 See A.i.P. Taylor (1954).
57 In particular the readiness of the German trade unions, post-unification, to accept collective bargains that would limit pay in exchange for higher employment rates.
58 China’s orders for German capital goods dropped by more than 50 per cent in the 2008-10 period as the Beijing government chose to maintain the growth rate by means of a stimulus package that is aimed at domestically produced capital goods.
59 While penned by French bureaucrats and politicians, the Maastricht Treaty, as is all Treaties, a compromise, was nonetheless a German Treaty, a Westfalian treaty in reverse: an imposition on Europe of the German Order, an exportation of the internal German order; an order that required no military divisions but only hard monetary reserves.
60 Chapter VI, p. 238, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, New York, Flarcourt Brace, 1920.
61 Latin America too reacted both politically (by electing left wing governments) and also by turning to China for sources of both investment and demand.
62 The IMF reported that in 2007 alone developing economies (primarily China, but also India, Brazil and Argentina) attracted S600 billion in net private capital inflows. At the same time, they ran a $630 billion current account surplus. To alleviate this gross imbalance, their central banks bought dollars and amassed SI.24 trillion in dollar and Euro exchange reserves. Their governments’ sovereign funds (whose purpose is to buy shares abroad as a form of national investment) added approximately another SI50 to the total. While more is going to sovereign funds, the vast majority remains with the world’s central banks.
63 Which was no more than the spread of US-style financialisation to the four corners of the world under the tutelage of the Global Minotaur.
64 In an Australian Broadcasting Company (ABC) radio interview, Mexican economist Rogelio Ramirez de la O stated in 2009: ‘Even strong companies that are subsidiaries of international firms are very, very discouraged at the way their volumes have fallen and their margins have been totally squeezed. The China effect is kind of overwhelming.’
65 Alan Greenspan, ‘We need a better cushion against risk’, Financial Times, 26 March 2009.
66 See Varoufakis (2002-3),
67 See PBS (2008).
13 A future for hope: Postscript to Book 2
1 In Norman Jewison’s 1991 film Other People’s Money, such an old-style entrepreneur is played by Gregory Peck whose old-fashioned factory comes under attack by Larry the Liquidator, played by Danny DeVito, not for the productive value of the factory but for its asset stripping potential. The speeches by the two men at the General Assembly of the shareholders, who vote in favour of Larry, typify the old and the new ethic.
2 See Bryan and Rafferty (2006).
3 Which, as we saw in Chapter 9, was the strong version of neoclassicism’s third meta-axiom.
4 See Bertolt Brecht’s Threepenny Novel, where the parable is part of the plot (Brecht, 1956: 374 ft).
5 The definition of the dissident as a person ‘living in truth’ is due to Vaclav Flavel, the Czech dissident playwright who later became President of Czechoslovakia. His own life is a cautionary tale of how heroic dissidence can shrivel and die once in power. Havel’s own demeanour, once he became President, offers insights.
6 John Lanchesfer in an article in November 2009 in the London Review of Books with the title ‘Bankocracy’ wrote ‘In the meantime, perhaps we should try and think of a name for the new economic system, which certainly isn’t capitalism: that, remember, is ail about “creative destruction”, and the freedom to fail. That’s exactly what we don’t have. The most accurate term would probably be “bankocracy” ’. Since two of us are Greeks we may suggest the better term ‘trapezocracy’ for rule by the banks (trapeza in Greek, ancient and modern, means bank) instead of the anglo-latin hybrid. As, however, an astute reader of the article (Mazen Labban, 2010) observed the term was already in use by Marx in Capital, vol. 1, ch. 31. The term is Bankokratie in German and can also be found in Capital, Vol, 1, ch. 27, The Class Struggles in France, etc. Alas, even in trapezocracy we are not the first. Googling the term produced a single result by an eindite but anonymous reader of Lanchester’s article who in deep cyberspace objected to the term bankocracy and suggested trapezocracy instead.
7 It is called ‘Mitigating Credibility Problems through Institutional Design’ (Rogoff, 1986).
8 As the ancient Athenians knew only too well, the lynchpin of democracy is isegoria, that is, equal say in the final formulation of policy independently of whether one is rich, comfortably off, 0r indeed a pauper eking a modest existence out of manual labour (see Herodotus, 5.78. The Greek dictionary of Liddell, Scott & Jones defines it as ‘equal right of speech, and generally, political equality'). In this reading, the key figure in classical Athens was not Pericles, or orators of stunning talent like Demosthenes, but, rather, the anonymous landless peasant who, despite his propertyless" ness, had a voice in the Assembly of equal weight to that of the great and the good. See also Wood (1988).
9 The plebs (e.g. workers, mechanics; i.e. Aristotle’s banausoi) ‘are sensible that their habits in life have not been such as to give them those acquired endowments without which, in a deliberative assembly, the greatest natural abilities are for the most part useless ...We must therefore consider merchants as the natural representatives of all these classes in the communityAlexander Hamilton, Federalist, 35 (emphasis added). See Wood (1995), ch. 7 entitled ‘The Demos versus “We, the People’”.
10 Trapeza, which is, as we said above, Greek for bank, is a good antonym for Demos, we feel.
11 To give just one example, the US-Mexico border fence is being built by Israeli companies that cut their teeth building the Wall in Palestine.
12 His poem Second Coming written after the First World War (1919) [Yeats 1920, p. 19] is even more apposite to the present situation. We quote:
Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The bloocl-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full ofpassionate intensity.
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