“We do not know what is happening to us, and that is precisely the thing that is happening to us, the fact of not knowing what is happening to us.… Such is always the vital sensation which besets man in periods of historical crisis.” Thus wrote the famed Spanish philosopher José Ortega y Gasset in the early 1930s, a time of social and political upheaval in Europe.
Ortega y Gasset’s observation is applicable to today’s world. Our time is also one of great turmoil and uncertainty. It’s easy to sense that profound changes are afoot and that they will impact us, our families, friends, employers and employees, cities, nations, and, yes, the world as a whole. Discerning how these changes will affect us in practice is the challenge of this book; it is my attempt to sort out “what is happening to us.” Over the several years it took me to research and write it, I was fortunate to count on colleagues and friends whose knowledge and intellectual rigor are only exceeded by their generosity.
Foremost among them is Francisco “Quico” Toro, a cherished colleague and dear friend. He was the first reader to whom I would send my rough drafts or float an idea, a dilemma, or a doubt. His pointed questions, smart suggestions, and careful corrections helped me refine my thinking and clarify the way I conveyed my thoughts. James Gibney, a good friend and one of the best editors I have worked with, also greatly helped me sharpen my arguments and my writing.
Mike Abramowitz, Bill Bradley, Jessica Mathews, Jonathan Tepperman, and Bob Zoellick read and carefully commented on several earlier drafts. This book is much better thanks to them.
I am also deeply indebted to Madeleine Albright, Anne Applebaum, Frank Fukuyama, Adam Grant, Alan Murray and David Rubinstein for their useful observations and their generous comments.
Roger Abravanel, Cayetana Alvarez de Toledo, Ricardo Avila, Sebastian Buckup, Gustavo Coronel, Javier Corrales, Liza Darnton, Luca d’Agnese, Uri Friedman, Enrique Goni, Francisco Gonzalez, Gianni di Giovanni, Brian Joseph, David Kamenetzky, Julie Katzman, Ricardo Lagos, Ed Luce, Thierry Malleret, Maurizio Molinari, Luis Alberto Moreno, Yascha Mounk, Anne Neuberger, Ben Press, Jose Rimsky, Gianni Riotta, Gerver Torres, Christopher Walker, Andrew Weiss, and Brian Winter read some chapters or the entirety of the manuscript and offered useful comments and encouragement.
I have had a long and fruitful association with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the Washington-based think tank where I work. It has been my intellectual home for decades, and the way I think about the world and the forbidding challenges we confront or the amazing possibilities we face is, in large measure, molded by my years at Carnegie. Bill Burns was Carnegie’s president between 2014 and 2021, when he left to become the director of the Central Intelligence Agency. That is also the period in which I researched and wrote much of this book and thus benefitted from Bill’s support. Tom Carothers is Carnegie’s senior vice president for research and one of the world’s most respected students of democracy and its perils. These are central themes of this book, and I was lucky to have Tom’s comments and suggestions. My thanks to Bill, Tom, and the many Carnegie colleagues who, over the years, shared their knowledge and ideas with me. Martha Higgings, the director of Carnegie’s library, and her team were immensely helpful in tracking down texts or pointing me toward relevant materials.
Tim Bartlett, an executive editor at St. Martin’s Press, was the editor of my previous book, The End of Power, as well as this one. His deep understanding of the subject matter, combined with his long experience steering authors and making their ideas shine, make him an ideal editor. I feel fortunate to have had his support during all these years. Gail Ross, my literary agent, offered invaluable advice and support, as did Miguel Aguilar at Penguin Random House in Spain and Gianluca Foglia at Feltrinelli in Italy.
My indomitable assistant, Angelica “Angie” Estevez, performed innumerable tasks with precision, effectiveness, and grace. She also helped with research and the production of the analytical index. Lara Ballou, Christina Lara, and Valentina Cano, my assistants at different times during this project, were immensely helpful. My thanks to all of them.
I feel very lucky to have a family whose members were not only willing to read the multiple drafts of this book but were also great at detecting its flaws and helping me correct them. My infinite thanks to my wife, Susana, our children, and their spouses.
This book is dedicated to Nusia Feldman, who despite having witnessed firsthand the very worst of malignant power, kept a warm smile, a gentle soul, and an unshakable trust in the innate goodness of people.