Key points from this chapterHow quickly should you move on your problem? Sometimes the need to make a choice overrides all the rules about how to solve the problem. When that happens, you have to go with the best input you’ve got, and the best minds you have available at that time. But knowing when you have to move fast, rather than taking the time to make a more perfect decision, is a fine art. There are four urgency factors that tell you how quickly you have to move:
The first urgency factor: What’s the competition doing?
In business, knowing what the competition is doing is essential to knowing how fast you have to move. If you’ve got an exclusive patent on a new genetically engineered drug, you may have months or years in which to solve the problems that come up. You can take the time to get everything just right before you move. In the computer business you may have only days to make a move.
Knowing the competition is the key, but how do you get information on what the competition’s doing? First, don’t be afraid to ask. Unless it violates fair trade rules, just pick up the phone and ask. Now, they may not answer the question, but a good reporter knows there are many more reasons to ask a question, other than the hope the person might give you an answer. You can learn a lot by studying the way people respond. Reporters constantly ask questions that they know the person will not answer. They want to know how the person refuses to answer the question and how he reacts to being asked. Ask and you still gather information, even if you don’t get an answer.
I was once the dinner speaker at the annual meeting of a large packaging company. At dinner, they sat me between the president of the packaging company and the vice president of their biggest customer, a Fortune 100 company. I said to the president of the packaging company on my left, “How much of these people’s business do you get?”
He told me, “We don’t know—they wouldn’t tell us that. We just know they don’t like to give all their packaging business to one company.”
A few minutes later, I turned to the vice president, who was their biggest customer, and said, “How much of your packaging business do these people get?”
To my astonishment he told me, “27.8 percent.”
I said, “I suppose you like to spread your business around?”
He said, “Well, that used to be our policy, but we recently changed that. Now if we find a supplier that’s willing to partner with us, we’re willing to give them all our business.”
Here was valuable information the man on my left would’ve loved to have—and could have had. But he didn’t ask, because he didn’t think they’d answer the question. The moral of the story? Ask the question even if you are sure they won’t answer.
When you talk to a competitor, if you want to get, you’ve got to give. Be ready to horse trade information. Sometimes it’s best to volunteer the information first, which obligates them to reciprocate.
“But that doesn’t make sense,” you say. “I don’t want to give my competition any information.” Well, I can see where that may be so. Just be smart about the way you do it. Don’t call or go to see the competition yourself. Send somebody who doesn’t know your secrets. Then when they’re asked for information you don’t want to give away, they can honestly say, “I’m sorry, I just don’t know. I’d tell you if I did, but I don’t.” In that way you only have to trade the information you want to trade.
Knowing what the competition is doing relates to your personal life as well as your business life. You’re wondering whether you have the courage to ask out that beautiful woman, who just broke up with her significant other. She’s gorgeous, to die for—enough to make bishop kick out a stained glass window, as Raymond Chandler would say. And she just won 10 million dollars in the state lottery. You’ve probably got a lot of competition that is ready to move quickly! You’d better get on the phone and do it now, or you’ll regret it for the rest of your life.
The first factor that tells you how much time you have to make the decision is what the competition is doing.
The second urgency factor: The life cycle of the decision
Sometimes, if you wait too long, it’s too late—however good the solution to your problem. If your decision has a short life cycle, you need to make a decision faster. What businesspeople all over the country are telling me, is this: In today’s speeded-up economy, decisions need to be made faster, because their life cycle is so much shorter.
Take the now famous case of U.S. Airways pilot “Sulley” Sullenberger flying from La Guardia airport in New York to Charlotte, North Carolina. Shortly after takeoff he hit a large flock of Canadian geese that disabled both his engines, something that very rarely happens. He had a massive problem on his hands and only seconds to solve it. He discussed with air traffic control the possibility of returning to La Guardia or trying to land at Teterboro Airport in New Jersey. That must have been the shortest brainstorming session in history. He quickly decided that his only viable option was to ditch the Airbus A320 in the Hudson River. Not an attractive option to be sure, because this was January 15th and the water was extremely cold.
Note the way in which he solved his problem. He methodically eliminated what wouldn’t work and narrowed his options down to what had a possibility of working. He narrowed his options, not expecting to find the perfect solution. I wonder how many times in his decades of piloting he thought, “What would I do now if I lost both engines?”
His fast problem-solving skills saved the life of all 155 people on board. It turned out that if this had to happen it couldn’t have happened with a more qualified pilot on board. He had flown F4s for the U.S. Air Force before spending 29 years as a commercial pilot for U.S. Airways. He had founded a company focused on helping businesses improve safety.
In spite of all this specialized knowledge of disaster situations and his impressive piloting experience, he said in a CBS 60 Minutes interview that the moments before the crash were “the worst sickening, pit-of-your-stomach, falling-through-the-floor feeling” that he had ever experienced.
It was a historic event in which the urgent need to solve the problem met the most experienced and talented problem solver on the planet. When that happens you don’t have or need much time to come up with a perfect solution.
My good friend Mike Summey, who was my coauthor on the Weekend Millionaire series of books, and owns and pilots a Beechcraft King Air airplane, added an additional insight to the Sulley Sullenberger incident. He told me that it’s one thing to choose a solution quickly to your problem. The key is that, having chosen a solution, it enables you to focus solely on making that solution work. Sulley made a quick decision to put the plane in the river, and once that decision was made he was able to focus all his attention on making a good landing on the water.
Had he hesitated over his decision, he may have gotten out of position to reach the river and no level of piloting skill would have averted a disaster.
The third urgency factor: How reversible is the decision?
This means: If you goof, how easily can you get out of trouble? Perhaps your banker has called you and said, “I can’t believe the real estate opportunity we have for you. We’ve just foreclosed on an office building that would be an ideal headquarters for your company. If you can make a decision by noon tomorrow, you can get it for 50 percent of the true market value, and we’ll finance it 100 percent.”
If you’re a good problem solver, the question isn’t “Would this make a good main office for us?” That might take you weeks to decide. Rather, the question is. “If I go ahead, how reversible is the decision?” If you truly can buy it for 50 percent of the market value, and they’ll finance it 100 percent, you can’t lose. Even if you never move into the building, you can sell it, and probably make a very good profit. To me, that’s a decision that shouldn’t take more than five minutes to make, even if it’s a multimillion-dollar investment. Provided, of course, you know enough about the current real estate market. And provided your corporate mission statement supports such a move.
Reversibility is a concept of which we all ought to be more conscious. Before you do anything you should be thinking, “How reversible is this action?” Slamming the front door of your house or the door of your car is not a problem because if you have the key in your pocket you can quickly reverse the action. If the only key is inside the car or house it could create a big problem.
Whenever you choose a solution to a problem you should be thinking, “This seems like the right thing to do, but if I’m wrong can I easily undo the action?”
The fourth urgency factor: How big is the downside?
What’s the loss potential if you make the wrong decision? We all fall into this trap. We agonize over which video to rent. We should be saying, “What am I spending time on this for? The down side is only $3.00. I’ll get this one too. If I decide not to watch it, I’ve lost $3.00. That’s tipping money, so it’s no big deal.”
I remember very clearly standing in the streets of Pamplona, Spain, with my son John, who wanted to run with the bulls. His motto is “It’s better to be gored than bored.” I wanted to run with the bulls, too—mainly because it would make a terrific story for my talks! But if a bull tossed me, my speaker friends would never let me get over it. When a bull tosses a speaker, it’s like a man biting a dog: It’s headline news!
When I evaluated the upside versus the downside, the risk didn’t make sense. The upside was very small, and the downside huge. I wouldn’t have to be tossed by a bull for it to be a disaster, either. After we left Spain, we were going to the Alps to climb Mont Blanc and the Matterhorn. Just a twisted ankle would bring that plan to a screeching halt. My son was 21 years old. If worse came to worst, he had a couple of decades left to climb those mountains. I was 50 years old, so I didn’t have many years left when I could throw myself at the Matterhorn and have a chance of getting to the top. That’s what we call a small upside and a huge downside!
Key points from this chapter
Sometimes you’re forced to make a decision without having the time to go through all the stages of problem solving. Here are the urgency factors that tell you when you must move fast:
1. First, what’s the competition doing? If you’re in a race to see who can get to market first, you may be better off to go with what you’ve got.
2. Second, how long is the life cycle of the decision? The decision to marry someone should take longer than the decision to market a new Christmas toy.
3. Third, how reversible is the decision? If you goof, can you get out of it without too much damage?
4. And fourth, what’s the downside? If you can absorb the loss, vacillating may cost more than writing off a mistake.
What if you’ve considered all these points, and they’re still pressuring you for a decision before you’re ready? The rule is that you’re probably better off to defer making a decision. It isn’t a 100 percent rule. But it’s the best thing to do enough of the time to make it a good rule.
If you’re forced to make a decision, do it, and then focus on making that decision work.