Growth and development
Thomas Malthus (1766–1834)
17th century Mercantilist thought argues that a large populace benefits the economy.
1785 French philosopher Marquis de Condorcet argues for social reform to raise living standards.
1793 English philosopher William Godwin advocates the redistribution of national resources to help the poor.
1870s Karl Marx attacks Malthus’s ideas, characterizing him as a reactionary defender of the status quo.
1968 US ecologist Garrett Hardin warns of the dangers of overpopulation in his essay The Tragedy of the Commons.
During the 18th century enlightened thinkers began to consider the possibility of improving society’s lot through wise social and economic reforms. The British economist Thomas Malthus was a pessimistic voice in this optimistic era, claiming that the growth of populations dooms societies to poverty. Malthus argued that the human sex drive causes faster and faster expansion of the populace. Food production would not keep up because of the law of diminishing returns: as more people work on a fixed amount of land, less and less output is added. The result is an ever-widening imbalance between the number of people and the supply of food.
However, there is a counteracting force. Malthus saw that malnutrition and disease caused by a more limited food supply would lead to increased mortality and stop the imbalance from getting out of control. Less food to go around would also mean fewer children could be supported, and the birth rate would fall. This would lessen the pressure on land, restoring living standards.
As well as preventing total starvation, changes in birth and death rates stop the population from benefiting from higher living standards for very long. Suppose that the economy has a windfall through the discovery of land. Extra land gives a one-time boost to food production and provides more food per person. People become healthier and the death rate falls. Higher living standards allow for more children. Together, these forces add to population growth. Food production cannot keep up, and the economy reverts to the original, lower level of living standards. This is called the Malthusian trap: higher living standards are always choked off by population growth. So whatever happens, the economy always reverts to the level of food output that is just enough to support a stable population.
Malthus’s vision was one of economic stagnation, with the population eking out a living and its growth being checked by hunger and disease. However, his model—an economy of farmers toiling with simple tools on a fixed amount of land—was already out of step with the times by the turn of the 18th century. New techniques allowed more food to be produced from the same amount of land and labor. New machines and factories allowed more goods to be produced per worker. Technological progress meant that growing populations enjoyed ever-higher living standards. By 2000, Britain had more than three times the population of Malthus’s time, with incomes 10 times higher.
Over time, technology has overcome the constraints of land and demographics. Malthus did not foresee this. Today, his ideas are echoed in fears that population levels are pushing against the capacity of the Earth in ways that new technology cannot offset.
Survivors of an earthquake in Pakistan receive food handouts. Malthus opposed any such relief—to assist the destitute would only encourage them to have more children.
Thomas Robert Malthus was born in Surrey, England, in 1766, and was given a liberal education by his father, a country squire. His godfathers were the philosophers David Hume and Jean-Jacques Rousseau. He was born with a cleft palate and suffered from a speech defect.
At Cambridge University Malthus was tutored by a religious dissenter, William Frend, before being ordained into the Church of England in 1788. Like his teacher he never shied away from controversy. In 1798, he published his Essay on the Principle of Population, the work that would bring him notoriety. In 1805, the new East India College appointed him Professor of Political Economy, a subject not yet taught at universities, which perhaps makes him the first academic economist. Malthus died of heart disease in 1834, aged 68.
1798 An Essay on the Principle of Population
1815 The Nature of Rent
1820 Principles of Political Economy