NOTES

1. WISHFUL THINKING

 1 Victor Hugo, Les Misérables, trans. Norman Denny (London, 1988 [1862]), pp. 279–324.

 2 James Joyce, Ulysses, ed. Hans Walter Gabler (London, 1986 [1922]), p. 21.

 3 “Le nez de Cléopatre: s’il eût été plus court, toute la face de la terre aurait changé,” in Blaise Pascal, Pensées, ed. Léon Brunschwig (Paris, 1976), p. 71; Edward Hallett Carr, What Is History? 40th anniv. ed. (London, 2001 [1961]), pp. 91–93.

 4 The Adventures of Robert Chevalier, call’d De Beauchene, Captain of a Privateer in New-France (London, 1745 [1732]).

 5 Edward Gibbon, The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (London, 1910 [1772–89]), vol. 5, p. 399; for Gibbon’s Oxford experience, see his Autobiography of Edward Gibbon, as originally edited by Lord Sheffield (London, 1907 [1796]), pp. 31–55.

 6 Isaac D’Israeli, “Of a History of Events Which Have Not Happened,” in Curiosities of Literature (Paris, 1835), vol. 2, pp. 369–78. D’Israeli originally published the Curiosities in 1791, with a second volume in 1793, followed by various new editions, including one with a third volume in 1817, adding extra essays as he went along. For Alexander, see Livy, Ab urbe condita, book 9, sections 17–19; for Tirant lo Blanc, see the translation by David Rosenthal (London, 1984), pp. 555–624.

 7 Christoph Rodiek, Erfundene Vergangenheit: Kontrafaktische Geschichtsdarstellung (Uchronie) in der Literatur, Analecta Romana 57 (Frankfurt am Main, 1997), p. 63.

 8 Jean Tulard, ed., Napoléon à Sainte-Hélène: Par les quatre évangélistes Las Cases, Montolon, Gourgaud, Bertrand (Paris, 1981), pp. 326–7, quoted in Rodiek, Erfundene Vergangenheit, p. 67 (my translation). See also Kai Brodersen, Virtuelle Antike: Wendepunkte der Alten Geschichte (Darmstadt, 2000).

 9 Louis Geoffroy, Napoléon apocryphe, 1812–1832: Histoire de la conquête du monde et de la monarchie universelle (Paris, 1844 [1836]); Rodiek, Erfundene Vergangenheit, pp. 67–89.

 10 Rodiek, Erfundene Vergangenheit, p. 72 n. 10; Emmanuel Carrère, Le détroit de Behring: Introduction à l’uchronie: Essai (Paris, 1986), pp. 18–32. Josephine actually died in 1814.

 11 Rodiek, Erfundene Vergangenheit, pp. 67–76; see also Pierre Veber, Seconde vie de Napoléon Ier (Paris, 1924), and Louis Millanvoy, Seconde vie de Napoléon (1821–1836) (Paris, 1913).

 12 Charles Renouvier, Uchronie (L’utopie dans l’histoire): Esquisse historique apocryphe du développement de la civilisation européenne tel qu’il n’a pas été, tel qui’il aurait pu être (Paris, 1876, reprinting articles in Revue philosophique et religieuse 7 (1857), pp. 187–208, and 510–41; and 8 (1857), pp. 246–79; see also Rodiek, Erfundene Vergangenheit, pp. 77–89, and Carrère, Le détroit de Behring, pp. 53–62. See more generally Paul Alkon, Origins of French Fantastic Fiction (Atlanta, GA, 1987).

 13 Rodiek, Erfundene Vergangenheit, p. 79.

 14 Ibid., Erfundene Vergangenheit, pp. 77–90. Renouvier’s appendices fill more than a hundred pages of his book.

 15 “If Napoleon Had Won the Battle of Waterloo,” in George Macaulay Trevelyan, Clio: A Muse, and Other Essays, Literary and Pedestrian (London, 1913), pp. 184–200; reprinted in John Collings Squire, ed., If It Had Happened Otherwise (London, 1972 [1932]), pp. 299–312.

 16 See David Cannadine, G. M. Trevelyan: A Life in History (London, 1992).

 17 Edmund Blunden, “Sir John Collings Squire,” rev. Clare L. Taylor, Oxford Dictionary of National Biography (Oxford, 2004), Index number 101036227.

 18 See also the reworking of this fantasy in Geoffrey Hawthorn, Plausible Worlds: Possibility and Understanding in History and the Social Sciences (Cambridge, 1991), pp. 1–3.

19 Squire, If It Had Happened Otherwise, p. 48.

 20 Arnold J. Toynbee, A Study of History (Oxford, 1934), vol. 2, The Genesis of Civilisations, part 2.

 21 A Confederate victory in the Civil War is one of the most popular counterfactuals, though the consequences drawn differ very widely indeed. See Phil Patton, “Lee Defeats Grant,” American Heritage 50 (September 1999), pp. 39–45.

 22 William L. Shirer, “If Hitler Had Won World War II,” Look (19 December 1961), pp. 28 and 43. See also the discussion in Gavriel Rosenfeld, The World Hitler Never Made: Alternate History and the Memory of Nazism (Cambridge, 2011), pp. 103–4. For speculative fiction imagining a Catholic England and a traditionalist papacy enduring to the late twentieth century, see Kingsley Amis, The Alteration (London, 1976). Philip Roth’s classic The Plot Against America (New York, 2004) imagines a fascist and antisemitic United States following the election of Charles Lindbergh as U.S. president in 1940.

 23 Geoffrey Parker, “If the Armada Had Landed,” History 61 (1976), pp. 358–68.

 24 Guido Morselli, Past Conditional: A Retrospective Hypothesis (London, 1989 [1975]).

 25 Shulamit Volkov, Walther Rathenau: Weimar’s Fallen Statesman (New Haven, CT, 2012).

 26 Rodiek, Erfundene Vergangenheit, pp. 100–108; see also Susanne Kleinert, “Historiographie und fiktionale Geschichtdarstellung in Guido Morsellis ‘Contro-passato prossimo,’” in Helene Harth et al., eds., Konflikt der Diskurse: Zum Verhältnis von Literatur und Wissenschaft im modernen Italien (Tübingen, 1991), pp. 231–48.

 27 Victor Alba, 1936–1976: Historia de la II República Española (Barcelona, 1976), discussed in Rodiek, Erfundene Vergangenheit, pp. 117–19.

 28 Rodiek, Erfundene Vergangenheit, pp. 119–22, discussing Fernando Vizcaíno Casas, Los rojos ganaron la guerra: Como hubiera podido ser el futuro—nuestro presente—si Franco pierde la guerra civil (Barcelona, 1989), and Manuel Talens, “Ucronia,” in Venganzas (Barcelona, 1994), pp. 25–34.

 29 Barbara W. Tuchman, “If Mao Had Come to Washington: An Essay in Alternatives,” Foreign Affairs 51 (1971–72), pp. 44–64. See also Rodiek, Erfundene Vergangenheit, p. 128.

 30 Carr, What Is History? pp. 91–93.

 31 Daniel Snowman, ed., If I Had Been … Ten Historical Fantasies (London, 1979).

 32 Ibid., p. 2.

 33 Ibid., pp. 4–5.

 34 Ibid., pp. 6–8.

 35 Niall Ferguson, ed., Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals (London, 1997), p. 12.

 36 Ian Kershaw, Popular Opinion and Political Dissent in the Third Reich: Bavaria 1933–1945 (Oxford, 1983), p. viii.

 37 Snowman, If I Had Been …, pp. 3, 9.

 38 Ibid., pp. 28, 70, 94–95.

 39 Alexander Demandt, History That Never Happened: A Treatise on the Question, What Would Have Happened If …? 3rd ed. (Jefferson, NC, 1993 [1984]), pp. 135–51.

 40 John M.Merriman, ed., For Want of a Horse: Choice and Chance in History (Lexington, MA, 1985), p. x.

 41 The following year saw another American collection, Alternative Histories: Eleven Stories of the World as It Might Have Been, ed. Charles G. Waugh and Martin H. Greenberg (New York, 1986), suggesting that the genre was starting already to come back into vogue. Compensatory fantasies about a Confederate victory in the American Civil War had already been parodied by the humorist James Thurber in his short story “If Grant Had Been Drinking at Appomattox” (available at numerous websites online).

 42 Aviezer Tucker, review of Ferguson, Virtual History, in History and Theory 38, no. 2 (May 1999), pp. 254–76, here, pp. 265–66.

 43 H. A. L. Fisher, A History of Europe (London, 1936), pp. v–vi.

 44 Edward Hallett Carr, From Napoleon to Stalin (London, 1989), pp, 262–63 (interview with Perry Anderson).

 45 Friedrich Meinecke, Werke (Munich, 1957–79), vol. 4, p. 261, quoted in Demandt, History, pp. 5–6.

 46 Robert William Fogel, Railroads and American Economic Growth: Essays in Econometric History (Baltimore, MD, 1964). See also Stanley L. Engerman, “Counterfactuals and the New Economic History,” Inquiry 23 (1980), pp. 157–72. For a defense of these procedures, see Eric Hobsbawm, On History (London, 1997), pp. 113–15.

 47 Merriman, For Want of a Horse, p. ix.

 48 “Historians Warming to Games of ‘What If,’” New York Times, 7 January 1998; Martin Arnold, “The What Ifs That Fascinate,” New York Times, 21 December 2000.

 49 Rosenfeld, The World Hitler Never Made, pp. 4–11. See also his “Why Do We Ask ‘What If ?’ Reflections on the Function of Alternate History,” History and Theory 41, no. 4 (December, 2010). pp. 90–103.

 50 Tristram Hunt, “Pasting Over the Past,” Guardian, 7 April 2004.

 51 Rosenfeld, The World Hitler Never Made, pp. 1–11. See also Mark A. Carnes, ed., Past Imperfect: History According to the Movies (New York, 1995), and Richard J. Evans, In Defense of History, 2nd ed., (London, 2001 [1997]).

 52 Quoted in Philip E. Tetlock, Richard Ned Lebow, and Geoffrey Parker, eds., Unmaking the West: “What-If?” Scenarios That Rewrite World History (Ann Arbor, MI, 2000), pp. 14–16, 28–35 and notes.

 53 Rosenfeld, The World Hitler Never Made, p. 11.

2. VIRTUAL HISTORY

 1 Cowley, More What If?, p. xv.

 2 Jeremy Black, What If? Counterfactualism and the Problem of History (London, 2008), pp. 6–7.

 3 Andrew Roberts, What Might Have Been: Leading Historians on Twelve “What Ifs” of History (London, 2004), p. 2.

 4 Benjamin Aldes Wurgaft, “The Uses of Walter: Walter Benjamin and the Counterfactual Imagination,” History and Theory 49, no. 3 (October 2010), pp. 361–83; at p. 361.

 5 Geoffrey Parker and Philip Tetlock, “Counterfactual Thought Experiments,” in Tetlock, Lebow, and Parker, Unmaking the West, pp. 14–46, at p. 17.

 6 Simon J. Kaye, “Challenging Certainty: The Utility and History of Counterfactualism,” History and Theory 49, no. 1 (February 2010), pp, 38–57, at p. 38.

 7 Merriman, For Want of a Horse, pp. ix–x.

 8 Black, What If?, pp. 7–9.

 9 Hunt, “Pasting Over the Past.”

 10 Carr, What Is History?, p. 95.

 11 Roberts, What Might Have Been, p. 3.

 12 Ferguson, Virtual History, pp. 53–55.

 13 Eric Hobsbawm, Primitive Rebels: Studies in Archaic Forms of Social Movement in the 19th and 20th Centuries (Manchester, 1959); Edward Thompson, The Making of the English Working Class (London, 1991 [1963]), p. 12.

 14 Edward Hallett Carr, Socialism in One Country, 1924–1926, vol. I (London, 1958), pp. 151–202 (“Personalities”).

 15 Ferguson, Virtual History, pp. 38–9.

 16 Karl Marx, Der achtzehnte Brumaire des Louis Bonaparte (1852), in Karl Marx, Friedrich Engels, Ausgewählte Schriften in Zwei Bänden (East Berlin, 1968), vol. 1, p. 226 (my translation).

 17 Allan Megill, Historical Knowledge, Historial Error: A Contemporary Guide to Practice (Chicago, 2007), p. 152.

 18 Fernand Braudel, The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of Philip II, 2 vols. (London, 1972–73 [1949]).

 19 Fernand Braudel, On History (London, 1980), p. 80.

 20 Ferguson, Virtual History, p. 87.

 21 Herbert Butterfield, The Whig Interpretation of History (London, 1931).

 22 Tucker, review of Ferguson, pp. 266–67.

 23 Ferguson, Virtual History, pp. 61–62.

 24 Ibid., p. 61.

 25 See the classic critique in Pieter Geyl, Debates with Historians (London, 1962 [1955]), pp. 112–210.

 26 Tucker, review of Ferguson, pp. 267–8, citing Maurice Mandelbaum, The Anatomy of Historical Knowledge (Baltimore, 1977), pp. 105–10.

 27 Quoted in Ferguson, Virtual History, pp. 39–41.

 28 Tucker, review of Ferguson, p. 268. Tucker’s examples of particular counterfactuals that supposedly challenge particular theories are not counterfactuals but factuals.

 29 Ferguson, Virtual History, pp. 64–67.

 30 Tucker, review of Ferguson, p. 268; see also Evans, In Defense of History, pp. 68–69, 138–40, 148–49; and Hayden White, Meta-history: The Historical Imagination in Nineteenth-Century Europe (Baltimore, 1987).

 31 See Paul M. Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (London, 1987), and Lawrence Stone, The Causes of the English Revolution 1529–1642 (London, 1975).

 32 Tucker, review of Ferguson, p. 271.

 33 Richard Ned Lebow, Forbidden Fruit: Counterfactuals and International Relations (Princeton, NJ, 2010), pp. 47–49.

 34 Ferguson, Virtual History, p. 237.

 35 Ibid., p. 279.

 36 John Charmley, Churchill: The End of Glory, A Political Biography (London, 1992). See my discussion of this book in Richard J. Evans, Rereading German History, 1800–1996: From Unification to Reunification (London, 1996), pp. 204–12.

 37 Alan Clark, “A Reputation Ripe for Revision,” The Times, 2 January 1993. See also the excellent discussion in Rosenfeld, The World Hitler Never Made, pp. 83–86 and 88–89.

 38 R. W. Johnson, “The Greatest Error of Modern History,” London Review of Books 21, no. 4 (18 February 1999), pp. 7–8.

 39 Ian Kershaw, Hitler 1936–45: Nemesis (London, 2000), pp. 369–80.

 40 Roy Jenkins, Churchill (London, 2001), p. 608.

 41 Paul Addison, “Churchill and the Price of Victory: 1939–1945,” in Nick Tiratsoo, ed., From Blitz to Blair: A New History of Britain Since 1939 (London, 1997), pp. 63–64.

 42 Andrew Roberts, “Hitler’s England: What if Germany Had Invaded Britain in May 1940?,” in Ferguson, Virtual History, pp. 281–320, quote on p. 298.

 43 C. J. Sansom, Dominion (London, 2012), pp. 571–93.

 44 Holger H. Herwig, “Hitler Wins in the East but Germany Still Loses World War II,” in Tetlock, Lebow, and Parker, Unmaking the West, pp. 323–62.

 45 Sansom, Dominion, pp. 581–88.

 46 John Lukacs, “What if Hitler Had Won the Second World War?,” in David Wallechinsky, ed., The People’s Almanac, vol. 2 (New York, 1978), pp. 396–98.

 47 Paul Addison, The Road to 1945: British Politics and the Second World War (London, 1975).

 48 Johannes Bulhof, “What If? Modality and History,” History and Theory 38, no. 2 (May, 1999), pp. 145–68, at pp. 146–47.

 49 Megill, Historical Knowledge, Historial Error, p. 152.

 50 Martin Bunzl, “Counterfactual History: A User’s Guide,” American Historical Review, vol. 109 (2004), pp. 845–68.

 51 Jon Elster, Logic and Society: Contradictions and Possible Worlds (New York, 1978).

 52 Steven Lukes, “Elster on Counterfactuals,” in Inquiry: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Philosophy 23, no. 2 (1980), pp. 145–55, at p. 153.

 53 Carrère, Le détroit de Behring, p. 91 (my translation).

 54 J. C. D. Clark, “British America: What If There Had Been no American Revolution?,” in Ferguson, ed., Virtual History, pp. 125–74, here p. 174.

 55 Ibid., p. 171.

 56 Tetlock, Lebow, and Parker, Unmaking the West, p. 372.

 57 Ferguson, Virtual History, p. 237.

 58 Clark, “British America,” p. 171.

 59 Ibid., p. 174.

3. FUTURE FICTIONS

 1 Jorge Semprún, L’Algarabie (Paris, 1981), pp. 109–15.

 2 Rodiek, Erfundene Vergangenheit, pp. 15–24.

 3 Tucker, review of Ferguson, p. 265.

 4 Rosenfeld, The World Hitler Never Made, p. 518.

 5 Ibid. See also Rodiek, Erfundene Vergangenheit, pp. 141–49 and 161–62.

 6 Rosenfeld, The World Hitler Never Made, p. 518.

 7 Henry Vollam Morton, I, James Blunt (Toronto, 1942), p. 3, quoted in Rosenfeld, The World Hitler Never Made, p. 39.

 8 For Coward’s play see Rodiek, Erfundene Vergangenheit, pp. 130–32.

 9 Ibid., pp. 132–35. See also Carrère, Le détroit de Behring, p. 50.

 10 Rosenfeld, The World Hitler Never Made, pp. 45–49.

 11 Richard J. Evans, Society and Politics in Wilhelmine Germany (London, 1978), pp. 11–3.

 12 Norman Longmate, If Britain Had Fallen: The Real Nazi Occupation Plans (London, 2004 [1972]), p. 109.

 13 Ibid., pp. 107–108, 117–18, 116, 8.

 14 Ibid., pp. 135–45, 173, 178–79, 186–206, 207–57, 258–62.

 15 David Lampe, The Last Ditch (London, 1968), and Adrian Gilbert, Britain Invaded (London, 1990).

 16 John Ramsden, Don’t Mention the War: The British and the Germans since 1890 (London, 2006), pp. 412–14. Rosenfeld (p. 71) attempts to sustain his thesis that there was a continuous process of “normalization” in British depictions of Germany and Nazism from the 1960s onward, with no backsliding or contradiction, by referring to a later, secondary source published in 2002 but does not take these poll data into account.

 17 William Cash, Against a Federal Europe: The Battle for Britain (London, 1991), pp. 1, 71, 82.

 18 John Charmley, “Why, Sadly, We Can Never Trust Germany,” Daily Mail, 8 May 1995, p. 8.

 19 See Andrew Bonnell, “Europhobia in the New Tory Historiography,” in John Milfull, ed., Britain in Europe: Prospects for Change (Aldershot, 1999), 207–25.

 20 Madeleine Bunting, The Model Occupation: The Channel Islands under German Rule, 1940–1945 (London, 1995).

 21 Roberts, “Hitler’s England,” p. 305.

 22 Ibid., p. 317.

 23 Owen Sheers, Resistance (London, 2007), p. 217.

 24 Andrew Roberts, The Aachen Memorandum (London, 1995), pp. 10–11, 14–20, 25.

 25 Ibid., pp. 9, 25.

 26 Robert Harris, “Nightmare Landscape of Nazism Triumphant,” Sunday Times, 10 May 1992, section 2, p. 1, quoted in Rosenfeld, The World Hitler Never Made, p. 423, n. 187. Rosenfeld (n. 188) notes that Harris distanced himself from the view that other features of the EU resembled a Nazi-run Europe, but the fact remains that the novel shared many features of the anti-German British Euroscepticism of the 1990s.

 27 Rosenfeld, The World Hitler Never Made, p. 87. See also Rodiek, Erfundene Vergangenheit, pp. 150–152; and Philip Purser, “Hitler’s Common Market,” London Review of Books, 6 August 1991, p. 22.

 28 Sansom, Dominion, pp. 578, 588.

 29 Ibid., pp. 584–85.

 30 Timothy W. Mason, Social Policy in the Third Reich: The Working Class and the “National Community” (Providence, RI, 1993), p. 7. See also, as a contrast, Niall Ferguson, “What Might Have Happened,” Times Literary Supplement, 19 September 2007.

 31 Richard J. Evans, The Third Reich at War (New York, 2009), pp. 332–33.

 32 Rosenfeld, World Hitler Never Made, pp. 15–18, 22–23, 193–94, etc.

 33 Ibid., p. 33, for an example.

 34 Ibid., pp. 199–245, 259.

 35 Bill Niven, Facing the Nazi Past: United Germany and the Legacy of the Third Reich (London, 2002), offers a useful introduction.

 36 Peter Novick, The Holocaust and Collective Memory: The American Experience (New York, 1999), pp. 127–45.

 37 Rosenfeld, The World Hitler Never Made, pp. 227–31.

 38 W. Hugh Thomas, Doppelgängers: The Truth About the Bodies in the Bunker (London, 1995); also his The Murder of Rudolf Hess (London, 1979); and SS-1: The Unlikely Death of Heinrich Himmler (London, 2001).

 39 See Deborah Lipstadt, Denying the Holocaust: The Growing Assault on Truth and Memory (New York, 1994), and Richard J. Evans, Telling Lies about Hitler: The Holocaust, History, and the David Irving Trial (London, 2002).

 40 http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release, accessed 11 April 2013.

 41 Philip K Dick, The Man in the High Castle (London, 2001 [1962]), pp. 246–47.

 42 Keith Roberts, Pavane (London, 1968); Kingsley Amis, The Alteration (London, 1976).

 43 Rodiek, Erfundene Vergangenheit, p. 42. See also Jörg Helbig, Der parahistorische Roman: Ein literaturhistorischer und gattungstypologischer Beitrag zur Allotopieforschung (Frankfurt am Main, 1988), and Eric B. Henriet, L’histoire révisité: L’uchronie dans toutes ses formes (Paris, 1999).

 44 Christian Goeschel, Suicide in Nazi Germany (Oxford, 2009).

 45 See Karen Hellekson, The Alternate History: Refiguring Historical Time (Kent, OH, 2001); and Ian Watson and Ian Whates, eds., The Mammoth Book of Alternate Histories (New York, 2010).

4. POSSIBLE WORLDS

 1 Nathaniel Hawthorne, “P’s Correspondence,” in Mosses from an Old Manse (New York, 1846).

 2 Hilary Mantel, Wolf Hall (London, 2009); also, Bring up the Bodies (London, 2012).

 3 See I. F. Clarke, Voices Prophesying War: Future Wars, 1763–3749 (London, 1992).

 4 Rodiek, Erfundene Vegangenheit, p. 48.

 5 Black, What If?, p. 188.

 6 Tucker, review of Ferguson, p. 276.

 7 Black, What If?, pp. 91, 188–90.

 8 Tucker, review of Ferguson, p. 274.

 9 Roberts, What Might Have Been, flap text of paperback edition (2005).

 10 Tetlock, Lebow, and Parker, Unmaking the West, p. 335.

 11 Dominic Sandbrook, “What If … Egypt Had Ruled Over Us,” New Statesman, 2 December 2010; “What If … William Hadn’t Conquered,” New Statesman, 1 July 2010; “What If … Henry V Had Lived On,” New Statesman, 6 January 2011; “What If … Little Prince Hal Had Lived,” New Statesman, 3 February 2011; “What If … Reformation Had Failed,” New Statesman, 8 July 2010. Dawkins is of course the militant English atheist Richard Dawkins, author of The God Delusion; Muggeridge, who stands in for General Franco in an imagined English setting, was the acerbic journalist Malcolm Muggeridge.

 12 Dominic Sandbrook, “What If … Britain Was Still a Republic,” New Statesman, 4 November 2010.

 13 Ferguson, “Afterword: A Virtual History, 1646–1996,” in Virtual History, pp. 416–40.

 14 Ferguson, Virtual History, pp. 14–17.

 15 Tucker, review of Ferguson, p. 276.

 16 Roberts, What Might Have Been, pp. 15–58.

 17 Ferguson, Virtual History, pp. 91–124. Robert Cowley’s contribution to Roberts’s volume (pp. 59–78) is not true counterfactual history because, while describing how one very small and specific incident might have altered the course of the War of American Independence, it does not go into the consequences of this. Amanda Foreman (pp. 92–104), suggesting that the war that threatened between Britain and the United States in 1861 might not have been averted, is, like Cowley, more interested in the mechanics of how history took another turn than in the consequences of the alternative turn taken.

 18 Jonathan Haslam, “Stalin’s War or Peace: What If the Cold War Had Been Avoided?,” in Ferguson, Virtual History, pp. 348–67.

 19 Roberts, What Might Have Been, pp. 79–133.

 20 Ibid., 166–88.

 21 Black, What If?, p. 10.

 22 Tetlock, Lebow, and Parker, Unmaking the West, pp. 241–322; William H. McNeill, “What If Pizarro Had Not Found Potatoes in Peru?,” in Cowley, More What If?, pp. 413–27, mostly actually devoted to a straightforward account of the actual influence of the potato in Europe.

 23 Hunt, “Pasting Over the Past.”

 24 Lubomir Dolezel, Possible Worlds of Fiction and History: The Postmodern Stage (Baltimore, MD, 2010), p. 122.

 25 Hawthorn, Plausible Worlds, pp. 39–80.

 26 Joel Mokyr, “King Kong and Cold Fusion: Counterfactual Analysis of the History of Technology,” in Tetlock, Lebow, and Parker, Unmaking the West, pp. 277–322, at p. 311.

 27 Niall Ferguson, Civilization: The West and the Rest (London, 2011).

 28 Tucker, review of Ferguson, p. 275.

 29 Tetlock, Lebow, and Parker, Unmaking the West, pp. 264–65.

 30 Henry A. Turner, Jr., Hitler’s Thirty Days to Power: January, 1933 (New York, 1996), p. 168.

 31 Tetlock, Lebow, and Parker, Unmaking the West, pp. 264–65.

 32 Richard J. Evans, The Coming of the Third Reich (New York, 2003), pp. 301–308.

 33 Megill, Historical Knowledge, Historical Error, p. 151.

 34 Ibid., pp. 153–54.

 35 Ibid., p. 152–55.

 36 Tucker, review of Ferguson, p. 270.

 37 Ibid.

 38 Bulhof, “What If ?,” pp. 155–56; Daniel Jonah Goldhagen, Hitler’s Willing Executioners: Ordinary Germans and the Holocaust (New York, 1996), p. 6.

 39 Bunzl, “Counterfactual History,” p. 855.

 40 Ibid., p. 857.

 41 Ibid.

 42 Sansom, Dominion, p. 589.

 43 Thus the Soviet Union was already producing more than three times as many tanks than Germany in 1943, a disparity not reduced by Speer’s rationalization measures: see Evans, The Third Reich at War, pp. 332–33.

 44 Tucker, review of Ferguson, pp. 268–71; citing Yemima Ben-Menachem, “Historical Contingency,” Ratio 10 (1997), pp. 99–107.

 45 In Cowley, More What If?, pp. 279–90.

 46 Herwig, in Tetlock, Lebow, and Parker, Unmaking the West, pp. 323–60.

 47 Parker and Tetlock, in ibid., p. 367.

 48 Goldstone, in ibid., pp. 168–96.

 49 Pestana, in ibid., pp. 367, 200.

 50 Robert J. W. Evans, Rudolf II and His World: A Study in Intellectual History, 1576–1612 (Oxford, 1973).

 51 See the interesting, if somewhat inconclusive discussion in Lebow, Forbidden Fruit, pp. 69–102 (“Franz Ferdinand Found Alive: World War I Unnecessary”). For yet another example of wishful thinking in connection with the survival of Franz Ferdinand in 1914, see Demandt, History, pp. 104–7.

 52 Hobsbawm, On History, pp. 245–46.

 53 Herwig, “Hitler Wins,” p. 352.

 54 See the brilliant cultural history by Michael Saler, As If: Modern Enchantment and the Literary Prehistory of Virtual Reality (New York, 2012).

 55 Tetlock, Lebow, and Parker, Unmaking the West, p. 389.

 56 Max Weber, “Kritische Studien auf dem Gebiet der kulturwissenschaftlichen Logik” (1906), in Gesammelte Aufsätze zur Wissenschaftslehre (1968), p. 275, cited in Demandt, History, p. 14.

 57 Rosenfeld, “Why Do We Ask ‘What If?’” p. 90.

 58 Wurgaft, “The Uses of Walter,” p. 361.

 59 Friedrich Nietzsche, Werke, vol. 4, part 1, p. 132, cited in Demandt, History, p. 1.

 60 Walther Rathenau, Die neue Wirtschaft (Berlin, 1918), p. 82, cited in Rodiek, Erfundene Vergangenheit, p. 100.