How to Cope
It is your human environment that makes climate.
—Mark Twain
In the future, unlike on Star Trek, we probably won’t be able to control the weather. But instead of just talking about it, we may be able to mitigate, learn to live with, understand, and deal with it.
Most of the death and destruction from water-bearing storms comes from storm surges caused by winds pushing relentlessly onto the shore. They are more like rollers of high water that form as the windborne ocean crashes inland. They may occur in addition to high tides. For cities that are at increased risk of flooding, architects are moving away from traditional defenses such as dykes, levees, and dams that are expensive to build and maintain and can be overwhelmed, causing massive flooding in extreme conditions. Instead, there are new plans to make space for water in the urban fabric so that life can (mostly) continue with far less damage due to flooding.[1]
Water plazas holding storm rain during floods will act as reservoirs until the water can drain away via naturally permeable pavement and can also be directed into huge underground cisterns or into some buildings by hydraulic diversion.[2]
For residents of many coastal cities, the future of continual flooding is already here in the form of rising sea levels and frequent, destructive floods. And the problem is only going to get worse.[3]
More than 90 US communities already face chronic inundation from rising seas caused by climate change, and the number could jump to nearly 170 communities in less than twenty years and as many as 670 by the end of the century, according to a study by analysts at the Union of Concerned Scientists.[4] Environmental scientists and engineers are devising a range of ways to prevent coastal flooding by diversion, saturating permeable materials, using natural green defenses, limiting erosion, and deflecting wave energy.[5]
Skyscrapers may not suffer the same flooding conditions of smaller buildings—inhabitants can always move up and use the basements areas for drainage. In the future, buildings will be far more self-contained and efficient, but there will always be the problem of isolation when the streets and underground areas are flooded—in fact, that’s one reason that future buildings will be more self-sufficient.
Seawalls and bulkheads (vertical walls that retain soil) and revetments (sloping structures on banks and cliffs) have long been the go-to defenses against coastal flooding. Fourteen percent of all continental US shorelines have been armored with these “hard” structures, and it’s estimated that nearly one-third of US coastlines will be reinforced by 2100.[6]
But there’s a problem: instead of damping wave energy, these cement structures simply deflect wave power to areas “next door.” So if waves batter a seawall along one location, their energy will be redirected to neighboring properties. That means some areas will experience wave energies and destruction even greater than would be experienced if the seawalls weren’t even there.[7]
A more workable and more natural solution is to create “living shorelines” with various soft, green shore-protecting techniques and technologies that primarily involve natural materials.
Nature has protected potentially flooding lands in a primal way by water-absorbing salt marshes and using shoreline rock structures, oyster beds, coral reefs, and other natural breakwaters to deflect water and protect the shoreline. Now we are striving to re-create what nature created in the beginning, to disperse the terrific force of the oceans. Stabilization projects involve what coastal engineers refer to as shore protection in conjunction with a beach restoration and maintenance plan. Shore protection is generally categorized as “soft” or “hard” solutions. Soft solutions include beach grass plantings, sand/snow drift fencing, and fiber roll technology. A fiber roll is a collection of coconut fibers rolled together, encased in organic netting, and anchored at the base of the coastal slope. And according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), just fifteen horizontal feet of marshy terrain can absorb 50 percent of incoming wave energy.[8] The growth of oyster reefs has a good chance of protecting a coastal area.
In one project, coastal scientists and volunteers built and installed square wire cages through which marsh plants would grow, creating a slope of plant matter to lessen wave impact, especially when utilized against a wall.[9]
Research suggests that marshes are significantly better than bulkheads at protecting shorelines. In a survey of three coastal regions of North Carolina, it was observed that Hurricane Irene damaged 76 percent of bulkheads. But the shorelines protected by natural marshes sustained little or no damage.[10]
Green growth also provides protection against floods and rising waters. Plant infrastructure can help mitigate the flooding by rainwater that rises when the ground is covered by impermeable surfaces, such as asphalt, pavement, and cement.
Another idea is basically a human-made “bowl” one hundred to three hundred square feet in diameter that is filled with soil, clay, sand, plants, and mulch. These bowls collect stormwater runoff from houses or small buildings so that it can be absorbed by plants or returned to the atmosphere as water vapor.[11]
Some communities have created larger versions of rain gardens known as bioretention systems, created by punching a hole through a clay layer in the ground to increase water draining.[12] Another solution is called a bioswale—that is, a sloped landscape that channels water into vegetation-filled ditches, complementing other green infrastructures.[13]
Green roofs and green walls with thick vegetation can reduce the volume of stormwater runoff from buildings.[14] On hard, impervious land, ground covers can be replaced with a porous surface concrete product called Topmix Permeable that can absorb water at a rate of about 880 gallons per minute, preventing pooling in parking lots and road surfaces.[15]
Living shorelines aren’t possible for all places. Take New York City, for example. To combat a powerful storm like Hurricane Sandy would have required establishing many miles of natural habitat, which could not have been possible in an urban waterfront setting.[16]
One inevitable problem is that some cities that suffer habitual flooding are at the lowest and flattest parts of the coastal United States, where the land is also sinking. Climate change will only worsen the plight of these communities and similar ones in other parts of the country.[17]
If global sea levels were to rise just one foot within the next twenty years (a good but gloomy guess), more than one hundred coastal communities would see up to 25 percent of their livable land flooded. A far more pessimistic guesstimate is that by 2100, close to 670 communities would be chronically flooded, including Boston, Newark (New Jersey), Fort Lauderdale, Los Angeles, and all but one of New York City’s five boroughs.[18] The latest research suggests that by 2100, up to 60 percent of oceanfront communities on the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States may experience chronic flooding from climate change.[19]
On the West Coast, dire predictions include losing expensive beach front real estate in southern California, airports in Oakland and San Francisco along with forty-two thousand homes along the coast and the inland Sacramento delta.[20]
The final, dismal solution to flooding is simple: pull up stakes and move away.
Ultimately, creeping climate change is going to be inherited by future generations. But for residents of many coastal cities, the future is right around the corner—or already peeking at us—in the form of rising sea levels and frequent, destructive floods. Worst-case scenario is that parts of America could experience sea-level rises of as much as eight feet by 2100.[21]
Consequently, this isn’t a great time to buy coastal property, especially with a thirty-year mortgage. About 40 percent, or 125 million members, of the US population live in counties located on a coastline.[22] It’s not too hard to guess what will happen to property values along the coast as rising ocean levels and extreme climate events put more and more homes in danger of being flooded, swept out to sea in high tide, or destroyed by storm surges or hurricane events. Even in nonextreme circumstances there is the danger that they will collapse along eroding shoreline bluffs or regularly become flooded because they’re below the (new) mean high-water line.
Just north of San Diego, the small, coastal town of Del Mar (ironically means “of the sea” in Spanish) is a wealthy enclave full of expensive homes built almost on top of Pacific Ocean bluffs and shoreline. The state of California requires Del Mar and all other coastal communities to create plans for managing their properties in the face of the expected rise of three to six feet in average sea level over the next several decades and to also understand that the land—including cliffs and beaches—will inevitably be taken by the Pacific Ocean.[23]
That actually happened way, way farther inland, in Grand Forks, North Dakota, where the Red River area was inundated so badly that people just abandoned their land and homes and simply moved to higher ground.[24]
Jerry Yudelson, a green guru and author of Reinventing Green Building, has stated, “My prediction: this same debate and response is going to happen in city after city as people begin to face up to the reality that ‘mitigation’ because of climate change damages might very well mean ‘abandonment,’ of settled areas, leaving them to face the elements.”[25]
NASA, the world’s leading climate research agency, says all ten of the planet’s warmest years since records have been kept occurred in the past twelve years. In some places global sea level rose about seventeen centimeters (6.7 inches) in the last century. In some places the rate in the last decade is nearly double that.[26] All three major global surface temperature reconstructions show that Earth has warmed since 1880.[27]
The growing heat island effect in cities, which contributes to global warming, can be partially handled by using green building materials that don’t capture heat.[28] Dark-colored asphalt absorbs between 80 and 95 percent of the sun’s rays, heating up not just the streets themselves but the entire surrounding area. And according to the Bureau of Street Services, the LA streets that have been rendered lighter in color with a grayish-white coating known as CoolSeal renders the streets ten to fifteen degrees cooler on average.[29] Using green building materials and alternatives could be one of the keys to saving our coastal communities.
Protecting places like New York City by dissipating big waves is not practical. It makes more sense to create larger versions of rain gardens known as bioretention gardens, a former wetland area punched with holes through the clay layer to increase infiltration. The garden fills with rain and floodwater, turning it into a full wetland that serves as habitat for wildlife.[30]
Green roofs and green walls blanketed with vegetation can reduce the volume of storm water runoff from buildings. New York has been weighing very ambitious plans for defending itself against further assaults from the sea by constructing a combination of a large chain of artificial islands and a giant floodwall.[31]
Perhaps more practical plans, as reported by the New York Times, includes the idea that the risk of future flooding is changing the way that buildings are designed in the city. Top-floor penthouses might be replaced with emergency generators that can provide enough power for residents to remain in their apartment for as long as a week, and ground floors are being built with materials that can tolerate floods.[32]
The occurrence of earthquake tremblers will become more problematic as more people move to urban environments and as structures grow. Luckily, over the last few decades, architects and engineers have devised a number of clever technologies to ensure that houses, multidwelling units, and skyscrapers bend but don’t break. As a result, after the building shakes and suffers only minimal damage, inhabitants can walk out unharmed.[33]
Earthquakes also produce land and surface waves. The former travel rapidly through the earth’s interior. The latter travel more slowly through the upper crust and include a subset of waves—known as Rayleigh waves—that move the ground vertically. This up-and-down motion causes most of the shaking and damage associated with an earthquake.[34]
Devices such as isolation systems and dampers are designed to reduce vibrations and, as a result, the damage of structures. These devices include a novel barrier that absorbs an earthquake’s ground waves. The “ViBa” is essentially a box containing a solid central mass connected to the foundations of buildings through the soil. It is held in place by springs, allowing the mass to move back and forth and absorb the vibrations created by seismic waves. It should be able to absorb a significant portion of that energy, with a subsequent 40 to 80 percent reduction of seismic response.[35]
Another system involves “floating” a building above its foundation on lead and rubber bearings, which contain a solid lead core wrapped in alternating layers of rubber and steel. Steel plates attach the bearings to the building foundation and, when an earthquake hits, allow the foundation to move without moving the structure above it.[36]
Yet another system uses a cushion of forced air. When sensors on the building detect seismic activity, a network of sensors communicates with an air compressor that, within a half-second of being alerted, forces air between the building and its foundation. The cushion of air lifts the structure up to 1.18 inches off the ground, isolating it from the quake force. When the earthquake subsides, the compressor turns off, and the building settles back down to its foundation.[37]
Shock absorbers in a building slow down and reduce the magnitude of vibrations by turning the kinetic energy of the suspension devices into heat energy dissipated through hydraulic fluid, a process known as damping. Dampers can be placed on each building level with one end attached to a column and the other end attached to a beam. Each damper with a piston head moves inside a cylinder filled with silicone oil. When an earthquake strikes, the horizontal motion of the building causes the piston in each damper to push against the oil, damping the motion.[38]
Another solution, especially for skyscrapers, involves suspending an enormous mass near the top of the structure. Steel cables support the mass, while viscous fluid dampers lie between the mass and the building it’s trying to protect. When seismic activity causes the building to sway, the mass moves in the opposite direction, dissipating the energy.[39]
Another idea is a controlled rocking system in which the steel frames that make up the structure are elastic and allowed to rock on top of the foundation, which means they can pull the entire structure upright when the shaking stops. The final components are the replaceable steel fuses placed between two frames or at the bases of columns. The metal teeth of the fuses absorb seismic energy as the building rocks. If they “blow” during an earthquake, they can be replaced relatively quickly and cost-effectively to restore the building to its original, ribbon-cutting form.[40]
One more design is a rocking core-wall at the ground level that prevents the concrete in the wall from being permanently deformed. To accomplish this, engineers reinforce the lower two levels of a building with steel, and they incorporate post-tensioning forms along the entire height. In post-tensioning systems, steel tendons are threaded through the core wall. The tendons act like rubber bands, which can be tightly stretched by hydraulic jacks to increase the tensile strength of the core-wall.[41]
Scientists call another possible system a “seismic invisibility cloak” for its ability to render a building invisible to surface waves. Engineers believe they can fashion a “cloak” out of one hundred concentric plastic rings buried beneath the foundation of a building. As seismic waves approach, they enter the rings at one end and become contained within the system. Harnessed within the “cloak,” the waves can’t impart their energy to the structure above. They simply pass around the building’s foundation and emerge on the other side, where they exit the rings.[42]
A “shape memory” alloy can endure heavy strains and still return to its original shape. Engineers are experimenting with these so-called smart materials as replacements for traditional steel-and-concrete construction. One promising alloy is nickel titanium, or nitinol, which offers 10 to 30 percent more elasticity than steel.[43] Researchers compared the seismic performance of bridge columns made of steel and concrete with columns made of nitinol and concrete. The columns made of nitinol and concrete allow for shape memory, which means the structures can endure heavy strains and still return to their original shape. They far outperformed the traditional materials on all levels and experienced far less damage.[44]
Another promising solution, much easier to implement, requires a technology known as fiber-reinforced plastic wrap. Manufacturers produce these wraps by mixing carbon fibers with binding polymers, such as epoxy polyester, vinyl ester, or nylon, to create a lightweight but incredibly strong composite material.
Engineers simply wrap the material around concrete support columns of bridges or buildings and then pump pressurized epoxy into the gap between the column and the material, offering significantly higher strength and ductility (strength before rupture). Earthquake-damaged columns can be repaired with carbon-fiber wraps and can be 24 to 38 percent stronger than unwrapped columns.[45]
Some marine biologists have suggested using the sticky fibers of sea mussels, known as byssal threads, because the flexible strands absorb the shock and dissipate the energy of the ocean. Researchers have even calculated the exact ratio of stiff-to-flexible fibers—80:20—that gives the mussel its stickiness, and they are developing materials that mimic the mussel’s strength.[46]
Another biomimic is spider silk. It’s stronger than steel pound for pound (just ask Peter Parker), and its dynamic response under heavy strain makes it unique. When the silk is tugged, the threads are initially stiff, then stretchy, then stiff again. It’s this response that makes spider webs so resilient and spider thread such a tantalizing material to mimic in the next generation of earthquake-resistant construction.[47] Scientists are presently trying to solve the problem of mass amounts of the spidey silk by hybridizing the genes of a silk spider with a goat. The silk is part of the goat’s milk and is purified producing the spider silk protein into much, higher quantities.[48]
Another possibility is for humble cardboard tubes to be coated with polyurethane and combined with wood as primary framing elements. Because the cardboard-and-wood structure is extremely light and flexible, it performs much better than concrete during seismic events. If it collapses, it’s far less likely to crush people gathered inside.[49] And it’s easy to reproduce.
For something more personal, how about Capsule K107, an egg-shaped pod? Once a quake hits, you step inside, close the door, and hide inside and ride out an earthquake. The survival capsule is a spherical, reinforced metal ball that can withstand being crushed and will also float in the case of a tsunami—and it can be lived in for up to a month. A basic version goes for $2,400, but a top-of-the-line model costs $10,000. The pods feature a pouch for human waste, an air purifier, and a vapor condenser to supply drinking water.[50]
The moon has little to no atmosphere, which means there’s no wind and very little weather. The surface can reach temperatures of up to 253°F during the day and drop to −243° at night.[51]
On our neighboring planets there’s going to be very little enjoyment, if any, of extraterrestrial strolls, rainstorms, or snowfalls. And as for enjoying a summer breeze, winds in the strongest Martian storms top out at about 60 mph, about three-quarters the speed of a Category 1 hurricane on Earth.[52]
Because of its thin atmosphere and its greater distance from the sun, the surface temperature of Mars is much colder than that of Earth. The average temperature on Mars ranges from a balmy 70 to a brisk −225°F.[53] The atmosphere of Mars is also roughly one hundred times thinner than Earth’s, but it is still thick enough to support some weather phenomena, like clouds and winds.[54] Mars is infamous for intense dust storms that sometimes kick up enough dust to be seen by telescopes on Earth. Every year there are some big dust storms that can completely cover the planet and block out the sun.[55]
Because Venus is closer to the sun, and because it has a thick atmosphere of heat that traps carbon dioxide and sulfuric acid, the average temperature is about 860°. On its surface is a crushing atmosphere ninety-three times heavier than on Earth, plus a thick, sulfuric acid–laced atmosphere in which there are lightning storms very much like those on Earth.[56] In fact, scientists claim that the only way to colonize the planet is to live high above the hostile atmosphere in giant dirigibles capable of housing thousands of “cloud people.”[57]
What you see when you look out the window on a daily basis is weather. Climate change refers to alterations in the atmosphere such as temperature, precipitation, ice melt, the jet stream, and wind patterns, measured over hundreds, even thousands, of years. The problem is that there is evidence that temperatures within human history have never increased as rapidly as in the past one hundred years. According to scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), globally, the warmest temperatures were those of 2015, 2016, 2017, and made 2018 the second-warmest year on record behind only 2017.[58] That increase is driven largely by human activities, mainly the use of fossil fuels.[59]
An international team of researchers formed some conclusions by running computer simulations and predicted what future weather patterns around the globe would look like if levels of greenhouse gases continued to rise as expected.
The simulations were run three times, with greenhouse gases set at either low, medium, or high. All three scenarios predicted increases in extreme weather conditions but differed regarding their frequency. Here is what they figure will occur by the end of the century:
Most areas above latitude 40° north, including parts of Canada and northern parts of the United States will experience more days of heavy rain, defined as more than 0.40 inches.
Dry spells, which can lead to drought, could lengthen significantly across the western United States.
On the bright side, the average growing season could increase significantly across most of North America.[60]
There are many factors that influence global weather, but one key message is that climate change and warming are likely to make extreme weather on both ends of the spectrum more common.
With the threat of rising global temperatures, increased rainfall, and severe droughts, and more and larger events, scientists are racing to develop technologies that will actually change the weather, like “making it rain” to mitigate the severe droughts experienced especially in the Southwest. One such older technology is cloud seeding; it is the process of spreading either dry ice, or more commonly, silver iodide aerosols, into the upper part of clouds to try to stimulate the precipitation process and form rain. Silver iodide gets sprinkled into clouds by airplanes or blasted up into clouds on rockets, or winds are used to naturally transport the silver iodide into the clouds. The chemical has a very similar structure to ice, so it will bond to clouds, making them increasingly heavy until they let loose their moisture.[61]
Some of these technologies seem promising, but there’s no telling about consequences when we start messing with Mother Nature.
Carbon dioxide is not a total bogeyman: it retains heat in the atmosphere and keeps the planet warm enough to sustain life. But it is a problem when we end up with too much, especially through the burning of fossil fuels. Certain gases in the atmosphere block heat from escaping. Long-lived gases that remain semipermanently in the atmosphere and do not respond physically or chemically to changes in temperature are described as “forcing” climate change. Gases, such as water vapor, which respond physically or chemically to changes in temperature are seen as “feedbacks,” causing a rise in temperature.[62]
The four most common greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and water vapor (H2O).[63] Impacts of climate change include:
Sea level rises due to the melting of ice sheets; sea levels in the United States could rise more than twenty inches in the twenty-first century
Extinction of animals migrating to higher elevations or away from the equator as temperatures warm, and the extinction of many forms of plant life
Absorption by the oceans of extra carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, making it difficult for corals and microorganisms to survive and disrupting the food supply for other sea animals
Increased fires in forests and brush, exacerbating forest decline, drought, and devastating wildfires
Stressed water supplies due to increased drought.
Whether you choose to bury your head in the oncoming rising tide or, instead, pay attention to people who have made it their life’s work to follow the climate of our earth, it seems that erring on the side of reason and safety makes far more sense than relying on ignorance and hearsay. Roll the dice offered by some “leaders” and politicians if you choose; just don’t whine when you get your feet wet or your crops fail.
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