Up until the early ’90s US intelligence and warfare tactics faced a traditional kind of threat. Typically, the threat involved military or guerilla fighters planning attacks on America and its allies, which included providing a way of escape. Today, this has all changed.
Hamas, Al Qaeda and a host of splinter terrorist groups have begun to employ a new and deadly weapon in their campaign against the West and Israel, the suicide bomber. Al Qaeda, and its affiliate groups, recruit, by the thousands, radical Islamic converts to act as suicide bombers; promising them the rewards of martyrdom in the afterlife. This trend continues to be the single most deadly and difficult threat to counter in international security today.
I want to begin with a discussion of the basic religious tenets behind suicide attacks. These terrorist groups proclaim suicide attacks are supported by Islam’s holiest book, the Koran. This could not be farther from the truth. In reality, the Koran is direct and clear in its teaching that suicide is forbidden. This is found in 4:29 of the Koran. The Koran does teach in several passages the martyr can expect a reward and eternal life in “paradise” (3:170-174 and 22:58).
Osama Bin Laden and the leaders of Hamas have duped young Islamic converts into believing suicide attacks are a form of martyrdom and guarantee them a reward in the afterlife, which includes seventy-two virgins waiting for them in paradise. This has been a gross distortion of the teachings of Islam and the Koran itself.
The Koranic view of martyrdom was derived from the historic example of the Islamic martyr, the third Imam, Husayn, the grandson of Mohammed. Husayn was murdered by followers of the Caliph Yazid and the Umayyads in the year 680. Husayn’s shrine is one of the great pilgrimage sites in the Muslim world. The issue of his martyrdom is one of the greatest divisive subjects, more than Islamic law or theology, in modern Islam.
The greatest split in Islam was created by Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran. Shi’a Islam is the dominant form of the religion in that country. Although Husayn has been historically portrayed as a peaceful, suffering martyr, Khomeini altered this interpretation and portrayed Husayn as a political activist and a hero of social change. This helped fuel the Iranian revolt and the overturn of the Shah of Iran. Since then, certain sectors of Shi’a Islam, most notably Al Qaeda, have portrayed Husayn as the example of political revolt against oppression.
Although the Koran forbids it, Bin Laden and others have mutated Koranic teaching and Husayn’s death to teach suicide bombings are an act of Islamic martyrdom, guaranteeing the attacker a reward in the afterlife. Thus, as many modern Islamic groups are aware, but afraid to decry publicly for fear of death, Khomeini, Bin Laden and others have radically changed the beliefs of traditional Islam itself.
Grand Ayatollah, Ruhollah Khomeini, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Leader of the 1979 Iranian revolution. Initiated Islamic suicide terrorism.
Essentially, suicide bombers are an innovative weapon of warfare. They are, in effect, smart bombs. They have perfect guidance systems, intelligence, the ability to change plans based on circumstances and can blend in with the intended target. These are typically young men, and now women bred and trained to be weapons of mass murder. They can identify their target with 100% accuracy. They can abort and move to a secondary target without programming. They have perfect guidance systems.
Suicide bombers and their handlers conduct research and intelligence before choosing their target. They are trained and educated to acquire the skills necessary for each particular attack, such as 9/11. The lethality of their attacks is without limitation. Studies show that approximately 1,000 new suicide bombers are recruited every quarter.
Several analytical reports have indicated there are similarities in the majority of suicide bombers. Some of these similarities are:
Physical appearance:
* Healthy, strong and undistinguished in appearance and manner
* Physical fitness enhanced by extensive commando training
* Scars on their knuckles, hands and forearms from commando
training
* Medium height and build - easily blend into crowds
* No abnormal physical and peculiar features that would cause their
identification - e.g., no tattoos
* Dress and hair styles are inconspicuous
* Trained to talk and behave like average people
* Well dressed if in the first-class section of an airliner targeted for
hijacking
* Employ disguises or plastic surgery
* In their twenties, healthy and strong - relatively few are older
* Leaders are older, in their thirties to sixties
* Younger terrorists are used to hijack jetliners, infiltrate government
buildings, throw grenades into sidewalk cafés, assassinate heads of state, or
detonate body-bombs on buses
* Appropriately dressed (or disguised) - acting normal before
initiating the attack
* Suicide terrorists must approach a target inconspicuously by blending in
* The necessity to appear like a normal citizen also applies to the
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the Liberation Tigers of
Tamil Eelam (LTTE), the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and other
guerrilla organizations
An example of the preferred physical appearance used by terrorists is Imad Mughniyah (head of Hezbollah’s special operations) who was described as “someone you would pass in the street without even noticing or giving a second glance.”
Examples of some devices used by suicide bombers
Suicide Belt (Manual switch detonation).
(Photo courtesy of Inert Products, LLC)
Suicide Back Pack (Remote detonation via cell phone).
(Photo courtesy of Inert Products, LLC)
Suicide Car Bomb (Remote detonation via cell phone).
(Photo courtesy of Inert Products, LLC)
Suicide Bomb Concealed in a Laptop Computer (C-4 Explosive).
(Photo courtesy of Inert Products, LLC)
Other Common Terrorist Characteristics:
* Religiously motivated terrorists are more dangerous than politically motivated terrorists
* Religiously motivated terrorists are the groups most likely to develop and use weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to fulfill their messianic or apocalyptic visions
* Women make formidable terrorists because of their coolness under pressure. They have proven to be more dangerous than male terrorists. Security check points have been hesitant to conduct body searches on women, and some of these suicide bombers carry explosives under a disguise that makes them appear pregnant
* Hezbollah, the LTTE, PKK and other groups have used attractive young women as suicide body-bombers with devastating effect
* Chechnyan rebels utilize female suicide bombers, known as “Black Widows.” They are carrying out suicide attacks as reprisal for the Russian killing of their husbands. Some of these Black Widows are elderly women
* They can work together with other suicide bombers - increasing the devastation; superior to any weapons system made
* Suicide body-bombers are trained to be totally at ease and confident when approaching their target
* Average marital status: 75% to 80% unmarried. Family responsibilities hinder requirements for mobility, flexibility, initiative, security and total dedication to cause
Aftermath of a Hamas suicide attack on the Sbarro pizza restaurant in Jerusalem. 15 innocent Israeli civilians were killed and 130 wounded. After the bombing, every restaurant the Author visited had a tense, guarded atmosphere. Israeli citizens could no longer relax and enjoy eating out without fearing another attack.
Signals and Warning Indicators
Case studies show not all suicide terrorists are able to act normally in approaching their target. In most cases psycho physiology, behavioral analysis and trained observation are useful in detection. For example, stress, or euphoria (in the case of the smiling terrorist convinced he is going to heaven to receive seventy-two virgins) chemicals are released by the autonomic nervous system and revealed in physical behavior. Antiterrorism training in Behavioral Analysis and Attack Recognition are Critical.
Early warning indicators of a terrorist attack include:
* Intelligence information on the individual, such as a “watch list”
* Unanticipated stress and nervousness may be exhibited - a hazard of the profession, involuntary and difficult to control
* The terrorist has higher levels of stress, resulting in involuntary psycho physiological responses
One of the challenges presented to law enforcement and counter terrorism professionals is the fact that most terrorists are trained to cope with nervousness. Female terrorists are particularly cool under pressure. A terrorist will look, dress or behave like a normal person—for example, a university student—until he or she executes the assigned mission. Terrorist profiling, based on personality, physical and sociological traits has limitations and is not as effective as other counterterrorism tactics such as intelligence and counter operations.
There are several motivations for a terrorist organization to carry out an attack. They include, but are not limited to:
* Political
* Religious
* Ideological
* Issues specific to their cause
* Criminal activity and Narcotics
* Environmental causes and Animal rights
Terrorist organizations share similar characteristics, such as:
* Ability to conduct sophisticated surveillance
* Ability to act on surveillance information
* Intensive, high risk, expert training
* Weapons, equipment, money and logistics support
* Educated, professional experts - engineers, explosives technicians
It is also important to know the historical characteristics of a potential victim of a terrorist attack. Some of these characteristics are:
* Position, fame, or threat to the group’s cause
* Personal and professional habits
* Quality and quantity of security
* Predictability of daily routes and routines
* Location and security of home or office
There is a plethora of terrorist organizations in the world today. Some of these are currently more active than others. The following is a list of current terrorist organizations. I have indicated the most active, lethal organizations that target the US, its allies and Israel in bold print.
Terrorist Organizations
Abu Nidal Organization (ANO) - worldwide
Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) - Philippines
Al-Qaida - Worldwide network
HAMAS (Islamic Resistance Movement)
Breton Liberation Army (ARB) - France
Armed Islamic Group (GIA)
Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia (ASALA)
Armed Forces of National Liberation (FALN)
Army of National Liberation (ELN)
Aum Supreme Truth (Aum) - Japan
Basque Fatherland and Liberty (ETA)
Devrimci Sol (Revolutionary Left)
Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)
Front de la Liberation de la Bretagne (FLB)
Front de la Liberation de la Cote de Somalie (FLCS)
National Front for the Liberation of Corsica (FNLC)
Harakat ul-Mujaheddin (HUM)
Al-Gamaa’t al-Islamiyya (Islamic Group, IG)
Hezbollah (Party of God)
Islamic Resistance Movement
Jaish-e-Mohammed - India
Japanese Red Army (JRA)
Kach and Kahane Chai - Israel
Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
The Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) - Uganda
Mujaheddin-e-Khalq Organization (MEK or MKO)
The Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ)
Palestine Liberation Front (PLF)
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command (PFLP)
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)
Revolutionary Organization 17 November (17 November)
Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party/Front (DHKP/C)
Revolutionary People’s Struggle (ELA)
Revolutionary United Front (RUF) - Sierra Leone
Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path, SL)
Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement (MRTA)
Alex Boncayao Brigade (ABB)
Continuity Irish Republican Army (CIRA)
Irish Republican Army (IRA)
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)
Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF)
New People’s Army (NPA)
Orange Volunteers (OV)
The Party of Democratic Kampuchea (Khmer Rouge)
Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA)
Qibla and People Against Gangsterism and Drugs (PAGAD)
Real Irish Republican Army (IRA)
Red Hand Defenders (RHD)
Sikh Terrorism
Taliban
Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution
(Iranian Revolutionary Guard - supporter of Hezbollah and Hamas, responsible for terrorist attacks against American troops in Iraq)
Department of State List of Designated Terrorist Organizations:
* Abu Nidal Organization (ANO)
* Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG)
* Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade (AAMS)
* Al-Shabaab
* Ansar al-Islam (AAI)
* Asbat al-Ansar
* Aum Shinrikyo (AUM)
* Basque Fatherland and Liberty (ETA)
* Communist Party of the Philippines/New People's Army (CPP/NPA)
* Continuity Irish Republican Army (CIRA)
* Gama’a al-Islamiyya (Islamic Group)
* HAMAS (Islamic Resistance Movement)
* Harakat ul-Jihad-i-Islami/Bangladesh (HUJI-B)
* Harakat ul-Mujahidin (HUM)
* Hizballah (Party of God)
* Islamic Jihad Union (IJU)
* Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)
* Jaish-e-Mohammed (JEM) (Army of Mohammed)
* Jemaah Islamiya organization (JI)
* Jemmah Anshorut Tauhid (JAT)
* Kahane Chai (Kach)
* Kata'ib Hizballah (KH)
* Kongra-Gel (KGK, formerly Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, KADEK)
* Lashkar-e Tayyiba (LT) (Army of the Righteous)
* Lashkar i Jhangvi (LJ)
* Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
* Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG)
* Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group (GICM)
* Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MEK)
* National Liberation Army (ELN)
* Palestine Liberation Front (PLF)
* Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)
* Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)
* PFLP-General Command (PFLP-GC)
* al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI)
* al-Qa’ida (AQ)
* al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
* al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (formerly GSPC)
* Real IRA (RIRA)
* Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)
* Revolutionary Organization 17 November (17N)
* Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party/Front (DHKP/C)
* Revolutionary Struggle (RS)
* Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso, SL)
* United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC)
* Harakat-ul Jihad Islami (HUJI)
* Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
* Jundallah
* Army of Islam (AOI)
* Indian Mujahideen (IM)
* Pakistan's Haqqani network
One of my assignments as an Agency officer was subject matter expert and instructor of surveillance and counter surveillance. Part of my duties included training several Agency officers and US foreign embassy personnel in techniques to detect pre-attack terrorist surveillance. The following is the typical modus operandi used in the majority of terrorist attacks, also known as the “Terrorist Attack Cycle.” The most exploitable cycle steps are in bold print. For the sake of security, I will not go into operational detail on each of the steps of the cycle.
It is my conviction that, if Americans and citizens in other countries of the free world know how terrorist groups operate, it will enable them to spot unfolding terrorist attacks before they occur. There will be a larger number of “eyes on the ground” potentially picking out terrorist activity, especially in the planning stages, and reporting it to authorities.
Steps in the Terrorist Attack Cycle (TAC):
1. Select, indoctrinate and train attack teams
2. Collect intelligence on potential targets
3. Identify list of possible targets
4. Initial surveillance of listed targets
5. Analysis and final selection (a soft target, i.e., the easiest to hit)
6. Additional surveillance and planning
7. Final victim and site selection (usually the softest target)
8. Attack escape planning (rapidly being eliminated by the deployment of suicide bombers, but still conducted by their handlers)
9. Attack rehearsed and timed
10. Attack team deployment
11. Target identification and final surveillance
12. Attack event (historical accounts indicate that in this phase there is only a 20% chance of survival)
13. Escape - No longer an option for the suicide bomber
14. Connected secondary attack, directed at law enforcement and emergency response personnel - a common operational signature of Al Qaeda
In my view the global war on terrorism represents the potential of World War IV. The clear intent of Islamic Jihad is the destruction of Western democracies and their replacement with a world Islamic Theocracy.
Now, two Asian countries (India and Pakistan), fortunately allies of the US to date, possess nuclear weapons. Both of these countries are at political odds with one another, and Pakistan’s government is in a state of instability with the Taliban exerting tremendous pressure on the capital, Islamabad, at the time of this writing. The leaking of nuclear secrets by Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, considered to be the father of Pakistan's nuclear bomb program, to Libya, Iran and North Korea in 2004 is alarming.
The fervent efforts of current Iranian president Ahmadinejad represent a grave threat to the free world. Of particular concern is Ahmadinejad’s strongly held and publicly declared belief in the coming of the Muslim equivalent of a Messiah, called the “12th Imam.” In his public statements Ahmadinejad has made it clear his political and military intentions revolve around his deeply held belief in the imminent return of the 12th Imam.
The Shiite form of Islam is the predominant religion in Iran. In Shiite teaching an Imam is an anointed leader or theocratic ruler. Shiites believe only Allah can appoint an Imam (whereas Shias believe an Imam can be a prayer leader or cleric and Sunnis believe an Imam can be a prophet, a belief also held by Shiites).
Shiite Islam includes prophecies that foretell there is coming a 12th Imam, who is the great spiritual savior of all Muslims. This religious figure is known as Abu al-Qasim Muhammad and is also called Muhammad al Mahdi. Mahdi, as he is commonly called, is said to have been the son of the 11th Imam, Hasan Al-Askari. Shiite teachings give an account of Mahdi going into hiding as a five-year-old child during the 13th Century. Shiite Islam teaches Mahdi has been “in hiding” in caves since his disappearance and will supernaturally return just before Allah’s Day of Judgment.
According to Shiite teaching, the Hadith, the signs of the 12th or Hidden Imam, are:
* A descendant of Muhammad and the son of Fatima
* Physical appearance will have a broad forehead and pointed nose
* Will return just before the end of the world
* Appearance will be preceded by a number of prophetic events during three years of horrendous world chaos, tyranny and oppression
* Will escape from Madina to Mekkah; thousands will pledge allegiance to him
* Will rule over the Arabs and the world for seven years
* Will lead a prayer in Mekkah, with Jesus at his side and following his prayer
* Will eradicate all tyranny and oppression bringing harmony and total peace
Ahmadinejad possesses a deeply held belief that he is personally responsible for preparing the world for the coming of Mahdi, the Muslim Messiah. In order to prepare the way for the coming of the 12th Imam, Ahmadinejad believes the world must be in a state of chaos. He believes he has been “directed by Allah to pave the way for the glorious appearance of the Mahdi.” This is nothing short of an apocalyptic view that drives Ahmadinejad’s politics, and very possibly his motivation to acquire nuclear capability.
Considering Ahmadinejad’s threats to “wipe Israel off the map,” his denial of the Holocaust, a soundly documented historical event, his philosophical hatred of America and his deeply held messianic and apocalyptic world view, if Iran acquires nuclear capability the threat of a global terrorist nuclear World War IV could become very real.
Ahmadinejad’s recent announcement that Iran is beginning a manned space program could simply be designed to conceal the development of ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear payloads for long distances. At the time of this publication Ahmadinejad and Iran are considered the single biggest threat to international security. Sanctions imposed by the United Nations are not working and, frankly, never will against a Theocracy such as Iran. I shudder to think what will happen to the US and Israel if Iran is allowed to continue its nuclear weapons program over the short period of time necessary to develop and deploy a nuclear warhead.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Considers himself called to pave the way for the “12th Imam,” through initiating world chaos.
Arak heavy water nuclear reactor in Iran.