BIG WINS AND LOSSES,
AND ANTE-POST
BETTING
I CLASSIFY a really big touch as one that earns me in excess of £200,000 on a single race. If I include the Scoop6 bonus, I’ve done this five times. You will read about the Exponential coup – so who were the other three?
The Tony Carroll-trained Cerulean Rose, at Glorious Goodwood in 2003, sticks in the mind like toffee to a rug. I first spotted her a month earlier, when she showed great promise at Bath, and I was sufficiently impressed to back her next time at Lingfield, where she finished 14th of 16 after receiving what I would describe as an ‘interesting’ ride from Jamie Mackay. My interest had been pricked. I put my losses of £8,220 down to experience and expected to get them back before too long.
Next time out at Doncaster, almost a month later, Cerulean Rose again ran off a lowly handicap mark of 37. After Lingfield I wasn’t certain what sort of ride to expect from little-known apprentice Liam Jones, but at 20-1 I was prepared to speculate a small amount and had £2,200 to win. Cerulean Rose received a much more aggressive ride this time and I was very happy with winnings of £44,000. I also considered backing her a week later at Chepstow, but had no reason to rate her better than the Doncaster form and so let her run unsupported. Oops. She won in such eye-catching style that I felt compelled to take a radical view of the performance. It suggested she was something to bet heavily on, especially if she was turned out again quickly while in such sparkling form.
The race at Chepstow took place on a very quiet Friday evening, which might well ensure that my knowledge of just how impressive she had been would not be widely shared within the betting industry. More importantly, it was only four days until the start of Glorious Goodwood. If Cerulean Rose were to turn out there in a five-furlong handicap, I would be able to go to war in an ultra-strong betting market.
As if by magic, Cerulean Rose was entered in a five-furlong handicap at Goodwood the following Wednesday. I wanted her as close as possible to the favoured far rail, so my cup was well on the way to running over when she was drawn highest of all in stall 23. It occurred to me that someone with more sympathy for the other side would have to feel guilty at being given such a huge opportunity. A horse I thought capable of winning with a stone more weight had been handed a gilt-edged chance thanks to the luck of the draw. That someone wasn’t me.
Cerulean Rose was a typical punter’s definition of the best bet I’ve ever had. She is the longest-priced horse ever that I considered almost sure to win. I would genuinely have been extremely surprised had she not done so. Cerulean Rose was the perfect dream bet for the man in the street. He could have walked into a betting shop and had a £1,000 bet accepted without question.
She was double smash material in spades, although I needed to be subtle with the first phase to avoid ruining the afternoon price. At early prices of around 6-1, I chose my opening salvos very carefully. As a result of this subterfuge, 6-1 was available on the opening show as well. Time for the heavy brigade. In a strong market the price fell to 9-2 at the off as I managed to get on £44,470.
There was a brief scare just after halfway when she was involved in a minor skirmish towards the far rail, but Cerulean Rose was soon in the clear and surged ahead to win by a smooth-looking length and a half. My profit of £262,027.50 was a personal record for a single bet. It would be three years before I bettered it.
Next up, the 2004 Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot. I’ve already referred to missing out on a monster touch on the unlucky Ellens Academy in 2001, but I more than made up for it three years later with Lafi.
Lafi was trained by David Nicholls. His reappearance run at Thirsk had caught my eye, to say the least, with his jockey Liam Treadwell not seeming at all keen to overexert himself. At Epsom next time, in finishing third, Lafi shaped like a horse about to strike form. As Nicholls’ horses rarely peaked by their second outing of the season, I felt Lafi had a huge chance in the Wokingham. But there was a complication. The horse was part-owned by well-known tipster Henry Rix. If I waited until large amounts of money confirmed him an intended runner, I’d find the odds tumbling too quickly. On the other hand, if I steamed in too early and took all the best prices, the owners could quite rightly take exception and choose a different target, leaving me holding useless vouchers for Royal Ascot.
I had to wait and see. A few days later, Lafi shortened in price with three bookmakers. Someone was building a position. Time to build mine, although I’d have to make sure I placed the bets with enough subtlety to avoid upsetting anyone. Geoffrey Pooley and I organised just over £4,000 each-way, mostly at 16-1 with a bit of 20-1, of which my share came to £3,320 each-way. I didn’t want too big a position in case the subsequent draw proved unfavourable. Luck was on my side again. Although this would level out in time, the draw was still of crucial importance at many meetings in 2004 and Royal Ascot was one of them.
Lafi had stall 30. Perfect. Word filtered through that the expected money from Rix and his cohorts had arrived on Friday lunchtime. I held my nerve, reckoning I’d wait until the Saturday, as if my team joined in too there was a danger of the price collapsing. I’d booked a suite at Pennyhill Park Hotel, not too far from Ascot, and had beaten the traffic the night before by taking the helicopter to the hotel helipad. Shortly before business opened on Saturday morning, I lined up my collection of mobile phones and summoned every agent I could locate.
The bad news was that Lafi was heavily tipped in that morning’s Racing Post, which would make him very much more popular, but I was willing to take well under the top offer. Accordingly, I instructed my agents that the horse was a ‘what you can get, 8 or bigger’ situation. This meant that they were to place bets with no limit and take all the odds available of 10-1, 9-1 and 8-1.
My morning’s business amounted to £14,363.70 each-way, but I hadn’t finished. By the afternoon, Lafi’s odds of 6-1 might have seemed very short for a race of this nature, but I felt that a £50,000 stake was appropriate and still believed the horse was overpriced. I organised a further £4,500 each-way at 6-1 and placed a £2,500 reverse forecast on Lafi and Dazzling Bay. Forecast betting pools are normally too small for me to bother with, but not in a race like this. All in, I’d staked £49,367.40.
Eddie Ahern sensibly kept Lafi closer to the pace than normal to avoid needing to switch wide. Horse and jockey then stormed through a furlong out to win by a length and a half. As I’d scooped £254,611.72, it was perhaps stretching a point and sympathy to consider myself unlucky – but if Dazzling Bay had managed to run one length closer and claim second instead of fifth, my winnings would have increased to almost £400,000.
It had been some week. The helicopter was taking me up to Yorkshire for a birthday party that evening and I had agreed to give a lift to Peter Easterby, who was in particularly fine form as his son Tim’s Fayr Jag had won the Group 1 Golden Jubilee Stakes that afternoon. Peter is a highly entertaining character, although his expert eye wasn’t quite as sharp from the air. Towards the end of the flight, I put him on the satellite phone to his wife Marjorie, and he reported that he’d be back home ready for a cup of tea in ten minutes. Peter then looked out of the window and asked me which racecourse we were passing over. I was unable to resist teasing him for failing to recognise York, where he’d been a top trainer for decades.
The last horse in my big five is Silver Touch, who in September 2006 narrowly beat my record for a single horse with a win of £272,447.99. The figures for the top four singles are quite close to each other, which suggests that it is going to be hard for me to collect more than £300,000 in one hit. That won’t stop me trying, though.
The most significant outcome of Silver Touch’s success was that she was the one who took me over the £10 million mark since my troubles in Cambridge, sealing my decision to take the whole of 2007 off and enjoy a whole summer, as well as two winters, away from gambling. I still had the occasional punt, but didn’t study racing over that period.
Once a trainer has made up his mind about a horse’s trip, it can be hard to persuade him or her to reconsider. Silver Touch was trained by Mick Channon, and after her debut success over seven furlongs that April she ran twice over a mile. She was bred to stay that trip, but I was convinced she could excel at shorter distances and had to wait for Channon to ‘come round to my way of thinking’!
Fortunately, he did, although it wasn’t until early September that Silver Touch was entered in a seven-furlong Listed race at York. I couldn’t see her being beaten and took further encouragement from the belief that the off-course betting market would be strong, with bookmakers taking the view that there are fewer secrets for them to worry about in races like this as opposed to lower-grade contests.
As before, it was a case of getting some decent bets on in the morning as subtly as possible to allow for a double smash, and Geoffrey and I managed to bury some large wagers in places that would not be too conspicuous. After morning prices of 9-2 and 4-1, Silver Touch did shorten up by the afternoon, as there seemed to be a big word for her at the track, so we had to take shorter prices on the opening show. With a carefully co-ordinated attack via the phones there were still plenty of places to get on, including the internet, betting shops and, finally, on this rare occasion, on-course. The York on-course market was very strong and as Silver Touch was clear second-favourite, the bookies were likely to be keen to lay some hefty bets. My father was racing that day with a couple of friends, so I arranged for £20,000 in cash to be at the track and travelled there to distribute it among the three of them, with strict instructions as to how it should be placed. I shan’t name the other two, in case they are needed in future.
As Silver Touch entered the stalls, the final tally, including bets for my trading manager and a few others, was impressively long: £13,300 win, £8,300 place at 9-2, £23,000 win at 4-1, £1,000 each-way at 7-2, £14,900 win, £3,900 place at 100-30, £5,000 win at 3-1, £44,000 win at 11-4. It all added up to a whopping £101,200 win, £13,200 place, of which my share was £76,720 win and £10,560 place.
Given my past success, some in the betting industry will wonder how we managed stakes of this size, but it only happened by devoting hundreds of hours to devising the best possible system for the placing of bets. We needed to have different outlets available according to the type of race. In the case of Silver Touch, I am 99 per cent confident that not one of the bets struck was recognised as coming from a source connected to me. However, the biggest factor was the type of race. Placing large stakes on one of the market leaders in a Listed race is much easier than in races where the form is less well known. Bookmakers take much more field money in these races and are less wary of the contenders.
The result was never in doubt from halfway. A slow early pace was certain to suit Silver Touch and I could not see anything beating her for speed in the final two furlongs. Sure enough, she came through strongly to win fairly comfortably by a length and a quarter. Although my total winnings came to more than £272,000, it was the £56,000 cash profit from the betting ring that provided the most satisfaction. I stayed hidden behind the stands as my father and his two friends emerged with huge bundles of cash stuffed into every pocket. By the time we left the racecourse I looked like the Michelin Man.
We headed to the Marriott Hotel close to the racecourse. I’d stressed the need for total secrecy before and after the race, but in his excitement one of the group had forgotten his instructions. As we left the course, we bumped into journalist Tim Richards, who lives near York. When he asked how our day had gone, I swiftly interrupted the member of the group who had started to chuckle and reply “Well, yes…” My firm ‘not too bad, probably about level’ quickly reminded my one-off soldier of the rules. Back in my hotel room, we sent for champagne before getting down to counting the cash. It took some time, but no-one seemed to mind. Finally, I had to arrange for the money to be taken away securely for banking. I make a point of never keeping large amounts of cash at my house or on my person, being ever mindful of security.
The only other time I’ve had more than £50,000 on a horse was also a winner, albeit at much shorter odds, with Caesar Beware at Windsor in August 2004. We managed to get on £98,000, of which my share came to £77,680. The 11-10 favourite hosed up by six lengths and my winnings amounted to £95,416.
Now, let’s turn to some losers. Although I don’t back that many favourites, my biggest losses have tended to be on short-priced horses, simply because bigger stakes were possible. Five Years On, who never won a race in his life, set the record at Musselburgh in September 2004. He was expected to win very easily but finished fourth of six, and turned out to be one of those who gallop far better in the mornings than the afternoons. My losses came to £48,800.
I lost £39,800 on Always Waining at Goodwood in July 2004, and blew an almost identical amount when taking plenty of 11-10 about Strike Up The Band at Chester in May 2005. My other £40,000 reverse – which tends to be my ‘normal’ maximum, to all intents and purposes – was Quality Street at Sandown in July 2005.
It’s rare that I go for a big bet ante-post. One substantial loser, however, was Three Valleys. After he won the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2003 I had a monster bet on him for the following year’s 2,000 Guineas. I thought he was the best two-year-old I had seen in some years and took all I could get each-way at 25-1, 20-1 and 16-1.
As seasoned ante-post players will know, late June is very early to have a serious view about a Classic race the following year. The horse was next due to run in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh, and following reports of tremendous work at home I stepped in once more for the Guineas, taking another lump at around 12-1. The bet now stood to win me more than £300,000. However, after One Cool Cat and Old Deuteronomy had put him in his place – third – I stopped reckoning up the bookmakers’ liabilities and turned to my own. They amounted to £26,400 when he beat only three horses home at Newmarket the following spring.
My most memorable ante-post winner was Love Divine in the 2000 Oaks. The market moved very quickly after her win in the Lupe Stakes at Goodwood and I had to take a variety of prices to achieve a decent position. I was very taken with her that day and was surprised when she wasn’t made a warm favourite after the race. I stood to win just under £60,000 from my each-way stakes, but on the day I became increasingly convinced that she would win. I smashed into her that morning with win bets at 7-2, 3-1 and 11-4, topping up my stake to a total of £40,000.
I was so confident I decided to start the celebrations hours before the race. Pride goes before a fall – but not this time. The Robot was sent to HMV and came back with a suitably chosen CD of hymns – very much a first for my CD collection, but I recalled that ‘Love Divine’ was a hymn we’d been forced to sing at school. Over lunch, the CD was set up as the voicemail message on all my mobile phones.
Love Divine was given a sound tactical ride by Richard Quinn and won comfortably without providing a moment’s anxiety, thereby ensuring winnings of £142,065.64. The phone calls flooded in from my agents after the race, but I took the rest of the afternoon off and headed for the gym. As I didn’t answer any of my phones, everyone who called was greeted by a bunch of boy sopranos blaring out “Love Di-i-vine all loves excelling”.
Media Puzzle in the 2002 Melbourne Cup was another great ante-post touch. I’d received a good word for the horse a few weeks before the race and got some decent bets on at 33-1 and 25-1. As it was the end of the turf season, I indulged myself and tinkered with how the bet was shared, so that I stood to win exactly £100,000.
Staying cool and collected as a gambler is as important a technique as any part of the selection process. I think this race illustrated better than any other how I had come very close to mastering this elusive art. The Cup was due off at 4.10am UK time, so I set my alarm for 4.09am. I had a big night out planned the following evening, so I wanted to get back to sleep as quickly as possible. Five minutes later, Media Puzzle had won smoothly by a couple of lengths. Two minutes after that, I was asleep. I can imagine many punters being critical. Surely, I can hear them say, why not enjoy the moment? But waking up the next morning and remembering that you won £100,000 during the night – that’s enjoying the moment.
Surprisingly, my biggest ante-post win came over jumps with Rooster Booster in the 2003 Champion Hurdle. It had been years since I’d been a serious student of jump form, but a call from one of my sources at the beginning of November alerted me to his prospects. Bets were struck at 25-1 and 20-1, and a second wave of business a couple of weeks later saw me step in for a large top-up, mostly at 10-1. In the Champion Hurdle, he slaughtered the opposition by 11 lengths. I’d decided that as it was a jump race and outside the Flat season, I’d waive my ‘no cheering’ rule and shout him home with two of my agents who had also backed him. In a rare outbreak of ill-discipline I was far noisier than you’d ever see me when I back a winner on the Flat. Winning £154,500 on a jump race was a great way to start the Flat season the following week.