PREPARATION
I’VE KEPT one ownership story back until the very end of this section. Of all the coups I’ve landed, the punt on Exponential on August 16, 2004 at Nottingham was the most dramatic and certainly attracted the most publicity. The gamble from 100-1 to 8-1 is, as far as I’m aware, the largest tumble in odds, during the pre-race shows, about a winner in the UK. The betting shows in the final ten minutes before a race are the most important by far. Before that, bookmakers put up a variety of flaky odds that can disappear in seconds, but once the show appears, the same price is available everywhere. Experience has taught them that they can lay these odds with more confidence, as there has been plenty of time to adjust for moves in the market.
Exponential was bought at the Doncaster two-year-old breeze-up sale in the spring of 2004. Breeze-up auctions are different from other sales in the UK, as the horses, who are all unraced, gallop in public before the sale. Over the previous few seasons, I had used a method that allowed me a tremendous edge at these sales. Most buyers would use their eyes to see which horses were impressive, although at the Newmarket breeze-up stopwatches were available, allowing timing between the furlong markers. However, taking furlong-marker timings is far from easy to do accurately from a distance, or even from the TV pictures. It was clear that very few buyers had access to accurate timings. This contrasted with American breeze-ups, where exact sectional times were published.
It was obvious that having precise times would be a considerable advantage, so from 2000 onwards, I took a team of my agents and placed them at five positions along the track. By co-ordinating stopwatches to start at exactly the same time, and recording the split time as a horse went past them, it was possible to produce extremely accurate sectional times. Nothing was left to chance; each agent was even given a spare stopwatch. The strategy paid rich dividends and I bought a steady stream of winners for knockdown prices. By far the most remarkable was the purchase of Curfew at Newmarket in 2001. She ran six lengths quicker over two furlongs than any other horse that day, yet I managed to buy her for only £21,000.
The downside was that our activities attracted considerable attention. The timers had a visible presence and the need to watch videos of the breezes while processing figures on a laptop attracted further scrutiny. In 2001, we walked away with two serious horses, bought for much less than other lots were making. Our status as pioneers couldn’t last, and a legion of timers appeared in subsequent years. In 2005, representatives of Sheikh Mohammed’s son Rashid bought heavily at the sales using a timing-based strategy. Suddenly, horses I had been buying for £20-30,000 were being bought less selectively, yet making £100,000+. As a result, the value of the timings has been eroded, and I have to be far more selective at these sales now, relying on my skills as a racereader.
There were still a few pickings left in April 2004 at Doncaster, where I bought a dark bay colt by Prix de l’Abbaye winner Namid for £27,000. I sent him to be trained by Stuart Williams, who had helped in the selection process. As with nearly all my horses, a partnership was registered, including Geoffrey Pooley and a few others.
At the sale, there had been quite a lot of banter among friends and trainer Ralph Beckett had been coming in for some stick. Geoffrey had known him since school and had been best man at his wedding. Stuart and I had long contended that the word Ralph was correctly pronounced with a short ‘a’ as in, say, Ralph Lauren, whereas those from the top public schools favoured the rather stranger version, as in Ralph Fiennes. Anyway, by the end of a lively session in a Doncaster curry house, things had degenerated to the point where Ralph had been renamed Rolph Bucket. On the way back to London, we decided to name the horse ‘Rolph’ under the partnership of ‘The Bucketeers’ with, of course, his namesake to be left unawares until the horse made its debut.
A few weeks later, Stuart told me that the colt was promising and that there was a chance we would land a touch if we allowed him time to mature. This caused a rethink on the naming situation. Rolph had seemed a good idea after the fun of the sales, but now that we might have business to do there was no value in alerting too many people to the horse. If even a few ‘faces’ in the betting industry deduce a horse is mine, the odds are dramatically affected. Rolph became Exponential, named after a trading term I used.
As I mentioned in the Sendintank story, Stuart’s horses made a very quiet start to the 2004 turf season. Dealing with a period like this is made much easier for his clients by his complete frankness. Owners tend to remain with the stable for many years because they know Stuart does not wear rose-tinted glasses when assessing or describing his horses, reporting any concerns as soon as they arise. Those who like a bet also appreciate that Stuart is insistent that the owner of the horse is the priority and should not have to compete with others in securing his price. The only difficulty as an owner is that the trainer is so open about his concerns that in a particularly frustrating period he can seem to be excessively pessimistic. His Newmarket neighbour William Haggas often gives him a ribbing about this and has nicknamed him ‘Grumble’.
Stuart felt Exponential was ready for his first outing in high summer, although at the time his horses were woefully out of form. It was assumed that there was some sort of virus affecting them, but it is often hard to nail down an exact cause. Stuart was adamant that Exponential was not unwell, however, and would need a run to get the hang of things. Some horses learn about racing naturally, whereas many need experience before they know their job, so Exponential headed to Beverley for his first outing in July, a five-furlong two-year-old maiden.
Stuart felt that as the horse was a quirky character he was likely to need some sort of headgear to make him concentrate enough to fulfil his potential. Blinkers may stop an erratic horse being distracted, but bookmakers are well aware of the merits of this tactic so they tend to be more cautious about horses wearing such headgear for the first time. It is normal to give a horse the benefit of the doubt at the very beginning of a career, then add headgear if he subsequently proves difficult. Using headgear on a horse’s debut is an extreme tactic and is likely to affect any resale value, as it creates the image of a wayward type. Nevertheless, I was happy to fit headgear straight away. Although we were losing the chance to produce extra improvement at a later date, we would avoid giving the clue of ‘first-time blinkers’ on such an occasion. Stuart also felt that an eyeshield wouldn’t go amiss, so we added that for good measure, arguably raising further questions about the horse’s attitude.
With his yard in the middle of a barren spell and equipped with both blinkers and an eyeshield, Exponential was completely unfancied both by the stable and the racing public, and started at 25-1 at Beverley. He showed some early speed but, despite being given every chance by jockey Vince Halliday, fell away tamely in the latter stages of the race and came in last of the 13 runners.
At this stage, it is important to point out that our jockey gave him positive encouragement to get involved in the race. It may be perceived that someone with betting in mind might want their horse held up at the back of the field and given little encouragement. As I’ve said before and will say again, this is not something I believe in.
The fact that Vince very clearly asked Exponential to be competitive before the horse dropped away would avoid press write-ups about a ‘promising’ first run. As has often been the case, by following the rules I would end up with a bigger price. When racereaders’ reports were published, the bait about the blinkers had been taken. Timeform commented that he was ‘disconcertingly fitted with headgear on his debut’. As he had finished last, punters were going to be itching to oppose him next time.
Over the next few weeks, Stuart’s stable began to return to form. Viral problems often seem to go as quickly as they appear. After the first winner on July 15 ended a drought stretching back to early May, there were another five winners by the end of the month. In Newmarket, Exponential was making terrific strides in his work. Stuart felt he was ready for another run at the end of the month and hinted that we had chances of winning at long odds. His horses tend to improve gradually with racing, with the result that many of them need a few runs before they manage to win. Stuart felt he had found a very fast learner who might defy normal expectations.
At this point, I took the crucial decision to delay Exponential’s second run for a week or two. I wanted to be sure. We already knew enough to have a bet at long odds and often it is wise to strike when a horse seems right, but I sensed that Stuart was warming to the horse by the day and if we waited a little longer we might really have something to go to war with. I suggested another couple of tests at home before a race in mid-August.
The plan paid off. Stuart called a week later to say that he now thought Exponential could make up into the best horse I’d owned. His work had been outstanding and Stuart felt he could win a maiden without difficulty. We decided on a five-furlong contest at Nottingham on Monday, August 16. The Ebor meeting at York, the feature event of the month, started the following day. Punters and bookmakers would be far more interested in looking ahead to York than sniffing around for information in little races at Nottingham, trying to find out what I didn’t want them to know. Although I tend to have my horses in stables that are fairly secure, there are always risks that information will leak out.
On the preceding Saturday, I carefully looked through the likely runners. There were plenty of horses with decent form, but on closer inspection none of them looked seriously promising. This was perfect, as Stuart only felt that we needed to avoid a really strong contender, and the fact that several had proper form would make it easy to rule out our horse. On this occasion, Stuart’s reputation as a shrewd operator would count in our favour, as he was rightly respected as a trainer who did well in handicaps. Knowing that he didn’t win many maiden races, tipsters and form students would be swift to write off Exponential’s chance of success. Similar thinking had led them astray when The Baroness landed her punt a year earlier.
Stuart didn’t have a stable jockey at the time and we needed a capable rider who would not attract a lot of attention. David Allan was attached to Tim Easterby’s yard and had been riding well without being noted as fashionable. He looked an ideal choice. I called Stuart on the Sunday evening. He wasn’t pessimistic this time. He believed we had a horse who might progress to Listed company the following season, and suggested that my betting strategy should be a simple one. I should get as much money on as I could manage at whatever price was available, with no lower limit. Given that early forecasts were around 50-1 there seemed no danger of the price going too low, but I confirmed exactly what he meant by asking: “So even if the price is cut to something ridiculous like 5-2, will I continue to smash away?” “Yes,” he replied. An interesting day lay ahead.