CALM BEFORE
THE STORM
FRIDAY, July 30, 2004 was by no means an average day for my operation. Turnover was sky high and the results were not typical either, but describing in detail one of my busiest days will probably reveal more than a report of a standard day. As I’ve said, it is only by looking back a number of years that I am able to reveal the full day’s activities. Detailing more recent trading would provide too many clues that would allow bookmakers to trace my future business.
It was the fourth day of five at Glorious Goodwood. I would travel to the course in the late morning and stay there until after racing on the Saturday. The previous three days had been spent in the office. Financially, I was slightly in front, but there had been no huge wagers as yet.
The alarm in my London flat went off at 8am. During the summer I wake up at the same time nearly every morning. That time is later than in previous years, ensuring that the occasional late night is not too disruptive to my sleep patterns. Occasionally, after a very late Saturday night, I’ll have a Sunday morning lie-in, although I’ll rouse myself to switch my phone on at 9.45 as one of my trainers might be trying to contact me about declaring a horse before the 10am deadline. My sleep patterns change completely when the winter break arrives. As nightlife in the UK has moved to more continental hours, especially in London, I often keep much later hours. I’m careful to check any horse declarations in advance, as I simply sleep until my body tells me to wake.
I ate breakfast straight after waking. I have quite a high metabolism, so my blood sugar falls overnight, causing me to wake hungry. Taking any sort of financial decision before eating would be unwise, as my typically positive mood is reversed until some food wakes up my system, so I settled down to read the Racing Post over a bowl of cereal. Having read the news, I reviewed the previous day’s results. The major draw biases still in place in 2004 were already having an impact at Goodwood, but the situation was far from static. Continued watering through the week, combined with movement of the running rails, made for a complex situation. Having finished the paper and breakfast, I headed for the shower and got dressed for the races.
Just after 8.30, I was back at my desk to review my shortlist of horses for Friday, prepared the night before. A full list had been scanned, containing more than 300 horses I’d made notes on during the preceding months. Some were negative, some were positive, but for all there was some reason to expect that the betting market might misread their chances on subsequent runs.
Eighteen ‘list horses’ were running that day, of which ten had been eliminated the day before. In most cases, detailed study showed that they might not be good enough, even allowing for any anticipated improvement. Others were taken out as their race was unsuitable. In the case of positive notes, there was often a nuance that I believed to be hiding a horse’s true potential. Softer ground might have been needed, or maybe a longer distance, or perhaps a track more in keeping with the horse’s characteristics. If a positive list horse was not facing optimum conditions I would ignore it and wait for a more suitable contest.
Negative list horses needed to feature prominently in the betting in their chosen race. If there was to be value in opposing them, then interest would be very limited if they were available at a double-figure price. My negative choices would, as always, have been a major surprise to most racing experts. Compiling lists of underachieving or lazy horses was pointless, as these would be ruthlessly opposed in the betting market, so the negatives were mostly horses who seemed to have excelled on their latest starts but who I had judged to be overrated. A typical example might be a horse who had won by four lengths, with the jockey taking it easy close home. I might have decided that the manner of victory was less impressive than the experts believed, or that the race was substandard, particularly if this was not reported elsewhere.
The shortlist of eight needed further analysis. I analysed form lines on the computer while comparing a range of time- and form-based ratings in each of the chosen races. The ratings provided a guide but the detailed form study was far more important. All ratings are based on assumption, the estimates that either manual or computerised compilers make at the time they are produced. I needed to rework the form of the main contenders in each race, checking the assumptions against the latest form evidence. A race would look significantly weaker or stronger after the protagonists had raced again. Such study would continue many levels deep. Not only would the recent races of contenders be reworked, but the previous outings of the runners in those races would be reworked as well. A race that had occurred a month earlier would be reworked in both directions, reassessing the contenders in terms of the latest evidence about their past and future performances.
My hard drives had the last five years of racing fully indexed, so I could flick up the video of any race in seconds. A contender for the day, or a horse who had provided a key formline by racing again, would be watched in detail to see if its bare form looked in any way misleading. By 9.15, my shortlist had been narrowed down to five main contenders, plus a key note about the draw.
All For Laura (Nottingham 6.20) came from a race at Newmarket in early June that I’d been keen to oppose. I hadn’t been taken with her performance on that debut and felt she might be a false price next time.
Blue Dakota (Goodwood 3.50) was noted as one to oppose if trying six furlongs. He’d scrambled home over five furlongs at Ascot and I’d been surprised to read afterwards that a step up in trip was likely.
Inter Vision (Thirsk 4.45) was noted after two runs on easier ground after a promising effort at Thirsk. Very well treated on a rating of 79.
Lucky Spin (Goodwood 2.40) wasn’t as impressive as many had thought when winning a moderate Listed event at Warwick on her previous start and listed as one to oppose.
Nordwind (Nottingham 7.20) as usual, I’d seen little of the all-weather racing, but had happened to see Nordwind rout a field of maidens at Lingfield a fortnight earlier. He’d been seriously impressive, much more than the pundits seemed to believe. I felt they had underestimated the extent to which a step up in distance would bring enormous improvement.
DRAW: 3.15 High+++, 5.35 extremes?? The William Hill Mile at 3.15 saw a huge advantage for those drawn high. They would race towards the inside on ground that was both faster and less damaged by recent racing. The draw on the sprint course was more complex, but I suspected that the ground was quicker on the two flanks. A large field at 4.25 would provide a key indicator as to which flank was favoured and by how much.
I was in the middle of a thunderstorm, a time when my reading of the form is working particularly well and I take advantage by increasing both the size and quantity of my investments. On a day with plenty of interest, I had to make some major decisions, and needed to get some of the races sorted early. That way I wouldn’t have too many balls to juggle once I left for the track, so the next hour was spent making some betting decisions and discussing them with my trading manager Geoffrey Pooley.
Lucky Spin had to be opposed in the Oak Tree Stakes at 2.40, and I fancied the chances of Chic, trained by Sir Michael Stoute. She’d been travelling exceptionally well when clipping the heels of another runner in a strong race at Ascot the time before. I didn’t feel I had a huge edge, however, as the form was well exposed, so I gave Geoffrey a bet of £3,000. I only wanted to play at the best of the prices available.
In the 3.15, I’d placed a relatively small ante-post bet on Ancient World on Wednesday. I’d been asked to place a bet for a well-connected source and had followed the money in the light of his draw, 20 of 22, which was a huge advantage. I’d placed bets at 25-1, 20-1 and 16-1, totalling £1,360 each-way. Many others followed in the gamble as word spread of some impressive home gallops, and he was to start 9-2 favourite on the day. In fact, he wasn’t a strong fancy of mine. The draw, combined with his long odds, had made a small bet hard to resist despite my reservations about his form. At the morning prices I favoured Sawwaah and Unshakable, in stalls 22 and 21, so I gave Geoffrey instructions to place £5,000 each-way on each during the morning.
Although a thunderstorm does enormous damage to our betting accounts, Geoffrey and The Robot had worked hard to ensure they had access to many new betting outlets, as they needed to arrange for bets to be placed on accounts that were not ‘marked’ by previous warm business. Providing they used unmarked accounts, placing large bets on a 22-runner handicap at Glorious Goodwood would not be too difficult.
Moving on to Blue Dakota in the 3.50, I fielded against him with a bet of £4,000 on Stetchworth Prince. I’d also opposed Blue Dakota at Ascot, figuring that the stiff uphill finish would not suit him, and his narrow victory had proved expensive. I was more cautious this time, but Stetchworth Prince’s debut win at Newmarket had been boosted when the runner-up Army Of Angels had won two days earlier in a fast time.
Nordwind looked the strongest bet of the day at Nottingham, as I was quite confident that he could defy a handicap rating of 75. The main question was how to time the bet, and we felt that early afternoon would be the time to strike. Bookmakers would be fielding huge turnover for Goodwood and it would be much easier to hide our business among this level of activity; it was a good day to hide bad news for the bookmakers.
With a strong hand of new outlets, Geoffrey was confident of being able to place my stake of £20,000. He would typically try to place an additional 25 per cent for himself in such circumstances. In particularly strong markets, I might describe a bet as ‘40 per cent okay’, meaning that I authorised him to place a stake of up to 40 per cent of my bet for himself. Although the bet would not be placed for many hours, it suited me to clear as many items off my list as possible. There was always the option to change the bet if there was a development in the meantime, but at this stage I could assume that the bet would be placed during the afternoon and I’d receive a phone call or text message confirming my return.
With morning betting dealt with, I had just over an hour to start making inroads into the video study for the previous day. I had to review the meetings at Goodwood, Carlisle, Epsom and Musselburgh. There was no hope of finishing in that time, but it was vital to use windows of time when they became available. The next opportunity to study the tapes would be Sunday, and it would be a huge burden to finish three full days at one session.
The problem is one of maintaining a very high level of sustained effort. It’s possible to work without a break for 12, 14 or 16 hours, but scientific tests have proven that the quality of mental activity deteriorates quite rapidly after periods of immense concentration. A novice helicopter pilot is rarely allowed to fly for more than 30 minutes in the first few lessons – their performance usually drops quite rapidly after this time as the level of concentration takes its toll.
Watching race videos to a high standard is immensely tiring. You are watching 15 different stories unfold at the same time, so there is never a period when the eyes and mind can coast for a few seconds. The mind is constantly darting from horse to horse looking for something noteworthy. Of course, it would be easy to relax and simply let the race unfold, waiting for a performance to stand out, but this is not what is required. The purpose of watching a race is not to seek a performance that is ‘impressive’ or ‘unimpressive’. Instead, a horse who is ‘underestimated’ or ‘overestimated’ is needed. Finding a performance that the experts have misunderstood is a hugely exacting process.
For each runner, it is necessary to watch both horse and jockey with great care. Scrutiny of the jockey will show the extent to which a runner is being restrained or urged forward. This can be fairly easy to spot, but in some cases the style of the rider or a restricted view will make it more difficult. Occasionally, I may conclude that the jockey is concealing his true level of effort by performing arm movements purely for show, with little effect on the horse. This is usually spotted by watching the precise movement of the hands and reins. The hands will typically move significantly less in a forward and back direction and, crucially, the reins will stay tight. When this lack of communication between rider and horse is accompanied by shaking of the elbows, my suspicions will be aroused. Air shots with the whip are a rather less subtle tactic, seen more rarely these days.
Watching the horse itself provides vital clues. The eye needs to be trained to spot horses who are suited or unsuited by the track or prevailing going. The pundits will focus on the more obvious clues, aware that a horse with a flowing stride will often perform well on fast ground, whereas a more awkward stride with plenty of bend in the knee will suit soft ground. These are acceptable rules of thumb, but as with betting as a whole, it is often more valuable to spot those occasions when the simple rule is wrong. Each horse is also watched in terms of in which sections of the race it is working hardest, and whether that was a wise use of energy at that point in the race. Once again, I’m looking for the underrated performance, not just one that is overtly promising.
As usual, The Robot watched the races with me. Although I was relying mainly on my own assessments, having a second party to bounce ideas off was an advantage. A second pair of eyes to suggest “what about the one in blue, out the back, he’s taking it fairly easy on that one isn’t he?” helped ensure that I missed as little as possible. After an hour, we’d completed only the meetings at Goodwood and Carlisle, and I’d made notes to keep an eye on seven horses. Three more would be added on Sunday when I studied the second half of the day. The total of ten was a little below average for a busy racing day. My notes show that Friday provided a massive contrast, with 26 horses recorded for further scrutiny when they reappeared.
I now had 15 minutes to finish getting ready for the races. I would carry only the notes and printouts I needed. Everything else, including my travel bag and clothes, was packed and ready to go in my Mercedes. The Robot’s assistant Gareth was ready to drive down to The Spread Eagle Hotel at Midhurst, along with Greg, my computer programmer. They would jointly set up a remote office in my hotel room.
Just before 11.30am, I headed for the door. Penny, my personal assistant, had made all the arrangements regarding my travel and she handed me the helicopter bag. For each journey this contains printouts of maps and aerial photos for the pilot, as well as precise landing instructions. Landings at Goodwood are contracted out to a specialist company, with whom booking had to be made in advance. They supply a precise route into the racecourse, as well as a radio service to co-ordinate the arrival of the various machines. The bag also contained my satellite phone, which looks like a throwback to the first generation of mobile phones, being about eight inches long and three inches wide and deep. It doesn’t look very cool.
A car had been booked to take me to Battersea Heliport, a journey that takes between 20 and 30 minutes, depending on traffic. This was a brief chance to relax, fitting a couple of social calls into the steady stream of racing-related ones. On the business front, some information was coming in about the day’s runners, although nothing that changed my betting plans. I also used the time to discuss news with a couple of my trainers. There were a few runners due the following week and we needed to choose between races, as well as selecting a jockey.
Just before midday, I arrived at Battersea’s tiny terminal. My machine, G-VEIT, was already on one of the landing spaces outside. Penny had booked the departure to be ‘rotors running’, which meant that the pilot did not shut down the machine and I could be away in seconds, so I was led straight out by Leon, a regular face at the heliport. Arrangements were normally fairly easy at Battersea, unless a general election was imminent, in which case the party leaders and their security arrangements tended to get in the way.
I sat in the front passenger seat next to my regular pilot Julian Vacher, who radioed for permission to leave immediately. For safety reasons, as a single-engine helicopter, we were only allowed to fly out of London along the Thames, so we headed west along the river for a couple of minutes before turning south for Goodwood. With favourable weather conditions, we made it to the racecourse in around 25 minutes, a huge time saving over a car journey, particularly with raceday traffic to contend with. As the distance was relatively short, Julian would return the helicopter to its base near London, allowing him to go home and return the following day. On longer journeys, the pilot stays overnight and leaves the helicopter at a nearby airfield.
At the track, I had an hour and a half before racing to finalise plans. Some friends had already arrived and secured a table on the lawn as a base. We had a chat and I took a few more calls, most importantly to update on morning business with Geoffrey. In a strong market, everything had gone to plan, with the exception of Chic, where my firm minimum price instruction had resulted in a slightly reduced return of £2,510. The Nordwind business would start a little later.
I made a couple of calls regarding the 6.20 at Nottingham. I was keen to oppose All For Laura and checked reports about the unraced Stoute filly Regina. Word reached me that she was not fully wound up, but might be ready to win first time. Not a strong positive, but a source I respected felt she would be good value. There was very hot money in the same race for Neverletmego, trained by Geoff Wragg, with talk of her being a strong favourite. She was the first foal out of the Group 1-winning sprinter Cassandra Go, which would further shorten her price but raised a question in my mind. Cassandra Go had not shown quality form until she was four and her high-quality brother Verglas had also been beaten on his debut. With a family that suggested gradual improvement, I was happy to oppose her with a small bet on Regina, and left Geoffrey a stake of £4,000 to be placed nearer the time.
At the same time, I received word from a profitable source for Akilana in the 7.25 at Galway. I had no time to study the Irish form but the past record of the source led me to place a bet of £1,500, obtaining prices of around 3-1 in a thin market. The final word during lunchtime came from the Mick Easterby camp. New Wish, in the 7.50 at Nottingham, had been laid out for the race and I was invited to place a lumpy bet for connections. A stake of £5,300 was required, and connections were happy to be guided by my views as to when the business should be placed. I put Geoffrey in charge of watching the betting with care. I suspected that a move during the afternoon would be wise, although the hot nature of the business would make it unwise to use the freshest accounts. Instead, we’d use a wide team of agents, splitting the business into a multitude of smaller amounts. New Wish had plummeted in the ratings over the previous season, down from 90 to 66. Although it was hard to be certain how much ability he retained, it was still impossible to resist backing him, given the knowledge that he was fit and fancied on his reappearance. I decided on a stake of £8,000 and would await news of the market.
The stage was set for a big afternoon, an afternoon that combined the delights of spending a beautiful summer afternoon with friends and of feverish betting turnover during a purple patch. I didn’t have many more decisions to take in the early part of the afternoon so I took it easy on the lawn, bantering with friends between races. There would be more decisions later on, but for an hour or two I could relax.