notes
one the rise of innovation
1. Barry Trevelyan, Matthew Smallman-Raynor, and Andrew Cliff, “The Spatial Dynamics of Poliomyelitis in the United States: From Epidemic Emergence to Vaccine-Induced Retreat, 1910–1971,” Annals of the Association of American Geographers 95 (2005): 269–93.
2. Centers for Disease Control, Division of Reproductive Health, “Achievements in Public Health, 1900–1999: Healthier Mothers and Babies,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 48, no. 38 (1999): 849–58.
3. Albert Feuerwerker, Chinese Economic History in Comparative Perspectives (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990).
4. David Landes, The Wealth and Poverty of Nations: Why Some Are Rich and Some So Poor (New York: W. W. Norton, 1999).
5. Patricia Ebrey, Anne Walthall, and James Palais, East Asia: A Cultural, Social, and Political History (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 2006).
6. Peter Drucker, “The Next Information Revolution,” www.s-jtech.com (accessed March 7, 2012).
7. Landes, The Wealth and Poverty of Nations.
8. Ibid.
9. The Applied History Research Group, University of Calgary, “The European Voyages of Exploration,” www.ucalgary.ca/applied_history/tutor/eurvoya/columbus.html (accessed March 7, 2012).
10. Ebrey, Walthall, and Palais, East Asia.
11. Landes, The Wealth and Poverty of Nations.
12. William Rosen, The Most Powerful Idea in the World: A Story of Steam, Industry, and Invention (New York: Random House, 2010).
two the incredible present
1. World Health Organization, Global Observatory Data Repository, www.who.int/gho/en/ (accessed January 23, 2012).
2. Ibid.
3. Ibid.
4. Ibid.
5. World Health Organization, Global Health Risks: Mortality and Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risks (Geneva: WHO Press, 2009).
6. National Cancer Institute, Cancer Trends Progress Report—2009/2010 Update (Bethesda, MD: National Cancer Institute, 2010).
7. National Institutes of Health, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Factbook, Fiscal Year 2006 Washington, DC: National Institutes of Health, 2007).
8. Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development, OECD Factbook 2010: Economic, Environmental, and Social Statistics (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2011).
9. Kenneth Manton and XiLiang Gu, “Changes in the Prevalence of Chronic Disability in the United States Black and Nonblack Population Above Age 65 from 1982 to 1999,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 98, no. 11 (2001): 6354–59.
10. Robert Fogel, “Changes in the Process of Aging during the Twentieth Century: Findings and Procedures of the Early Indicators Project,” Population and Development Review (Aging, Health, and Public Policy: Demographic and Economic Perspectives Supplement) 30 (2004): 19–47.
11. Roderick Floud, Robert Fogel, Bernard Harris, and Sok Hong, The Changing Body: Health, Nutrition, and Human Development in the Western World Since 1700 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011).
12. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, “The World Distribution of Income: Falling Poverty and . . . Convergence, Period,” www.columbia.edu/~xs23/papers/pdfs/World_Income_Distribution_QJE.pdf (accessed March 7, 2012).
13. Maxim Pinkovsky and Xavier Sala-i-Martin, “Parametric Estimations of the World Distribution of Income” (National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper. no. 15433, 2009).
14. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), The State of Food Insecurity in the World: Addressing Food Insecurity in Protracted Crises 2010 (Rome: FAO, 2010.
15. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “FAOSTAT,” http://faostat.fao.org/ (accessed January 23, 2012).
16. Daniel Cohen and Marcelo Soto, “Growth and Human Capital; Good Data, Good Results,” Journal of Economic Growth 12, no. 1 (2007): 51–76.
17. International Telecommunications Union, Measuring the Information Society 2011 (Geneva: ITU, 2011).
18. International Telecommunications Union, “ICT Indicators Database 2011,” www.itu.int/pub/D-IND-WTID.OL-2011 (accessed March 7, 2012).
19. David Lam, “Lessons from 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History,” (Department of Economics and Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Population Studies Center Research Report 11–743, 2011).
20. Indur Goklany, “Have Increases in Population, Affluence and Technology Worsened Human and Environmental Well-Being?” Electronic Journal of Sustainable Development 1. no. 3 (2009).
21. Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Interactive Data,” www.bea.gov/itable/ (accessed March 7, 2012).
22. Center for Sustainable Systems, University of Michigan, “U.S. Environmental Footprint Factsheet” (Pub. No. CSS08-08, 2011).
23. Louis Johnston and Samuel H. Williamson, “What Was the U.S. GDP Then?” MeasuringWorth, www.measuringworth.org/usgdp/.
24. “Genghis Khan a Prolific Lover, DNA Data Implies, “National Geographic News, February 14, 2003.
25. Tahir Shah, “Jewel in the Crown: A Palace Fit for a Nizam,” Guardian, February 19, 2011.
26. Plutarch, Plutarch’s Lives: Life of Crassus, Charles River Editors, trans. John Dryden (Amazon Digital Services).
three running out of steam
1. Capital Professional Services, “History of Oil Prices,” http://inflationdata.com (accessed March 7, 2012).
2. VOA News, “Oil Industry Set for Record Exploration Spending in 2011,” Voice of America News, December 29, 2010.
3. U.S. Department of Energy, “Enhanced Oil Recovery/CO2 Injection,” www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/oilgas/eor/index.html (accessed March 7, 2012).
4. Alfred Cavallo, “Hubbert’s Petroleum Production Model: An Evaluation and Implications for World Oil Production Forecasts,” Natural Resources Research 13, no. 4 (2004): 211–21.
5. James Cordahi and Andy Critchlow, “Kuwait Oil Field, World’s 2nd Largest, Is ‘Exhausted,’” Bloomberg, November 10, 2005.
6. Euan Meams, “GHAWAR: An Estimate of Remaining Oil Reserves and Production Decline (Part 2—Results),” The Oil Drum: Europe, www.theoildrum.com/node/2494 (accessed March 7, 2012).
7. British Petroleum, “Prudhoe Bay: Fact Sheet,” www.bp.com (accessed March 7, 2012).
8. M. King Hubbert, Energy and Power (W.H. Freeman, 1972). www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/energypower/ (accessed January 30, 2012).
9. IHS, “IHS CERA: Energy Strategy,” www.ihs.com/products/cera/index.aspx (accessed March 7, 2012).
10. Jad Mouawad, “Oil Industry Sets a Brisk Pace of New Discoveries,” New York Times, September 23, 2009.
11. Ken White, “The Year of Macondo, Brazil Discoveries Set 2010 Pace,” AAPG Explorer, January 2011.
12. Calatrava Almudena, “Huge Oil Discovery Boosts Argentina’s Potential,” Seattle PI, November 8, 2011.
13. U.S. Geological Survey Department, U.S. Department of the Interior, “3 to 4.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil Assessed in North Dakota and Montana’s Bakken Formation—25 Times More Than 1995 Estimate,” www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911 (accessed January 30, 2012).
14. “Update 4-Statoil: N. Sea Find May Be World’s Biggest in 2011,” Reuters, August 16, 2011.
15. Herbert Abraham, Asphalts and Allied Substances (New York: Van Nostrand, 1920).
16. IHS CERA, “Oil Sands Technology; Past, Present, and Future,” www.ihs.com/products/cera/energy-report.aspx?id=1065928651 (accessed January 30, 2012).
17. Cutler Cleveland, “An Assessment of the Energy Return of Investment of Oil Shale,” Western Resource Advocates, www.westernresourceadvocates.org/land/pdf/oseroireport.pdf (accessed March 7, 2012).
18. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Annual Energy Outlook 2010: With Projections to 2035,” http://infousa.state.gov/economy/technology/docs/0383.pdf
19. Natural Petroleum Council, “Coal to Liquids and Gas Subgroup of the Technology Task Group of the NPC Committee on Global Oil and Gas,” www.npc.org/Study_Topic_Papers/18-TTG-Coals-to-Liquids.pdf (accessed March 7, 2012).
20. Stuart Staniford, “IEA Acknowledges Peak Oil,” http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/11/ (accessed January 30, 2012).
21. Steve Connor, “Warning: Oil Supplies Are Running Out Fast,” Independent, August 3, 2009.
22. Chris Skrebowski, Fatih Birol, Jeremy Leggett, and Jonica Newby, “Peak Oil: Just Around the Corner,” Radio National; The Science Show, April 23, 2011.
23. James D. Hamilton, “Nonlinearities and the Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Prices,” Macroeconomic Dynamics15, no. 3 (2011): 364–78.
24. Kristie Engermann, Kevin Kliesen, and Michael Owyang, “Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles?” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Working Paper Series, http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2010/2010-007.pdf (accessed January 30, 2012).
25. Hillard Huntington, “The Economic Consequences of Higher Crude Oil Prices,” Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford University, http://emf.stanford.edu/files/pubs/22457/EMFSR9.pdf (accessed January 30, 2012).
four peak everything?
1. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “FAOSTAT,” faostat.fao.org/ (accessed January 23, 2012).
2. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “How to Feed the World in 2050,” www.fao.org (accessed March 7, 2012).
3. Dow Futures, “Historical Copper Prices History,” http://dow-futures.net/commodity/historical-copper-prices-history.html (accessed March 7, 2012).
4. International Monetary Fund, “IMF Primary Commodity Prices,” www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/index.aspx (accessed March 7, 2012).
5. Ibid.
6. Ibid.
7. USGS, “Copper Statistics and Information,” http://minerals.usgs.gov (accessed March 7, 2012).
8. Dana Cordell, “The Story of Phosphorus: 8 Reasons Why We Need to Rethink the Management of Phosphorus Resources in the Global Food System,” Sustainable Phosphorus Futures, http://phosphorusfutures.net/why-phosphorus (accessed January 30, 2012).
9. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “Fisheries at the Limit?” www.fao.org/docrep/u8480e/U8480E0f.htm (accessed March 7, 2012).
10. Yumiko Kura, Carmen Revenga, Eriko Hoshino, and Greg Mock, “Fishing for Answers; Making Sense of the Global Fish Crisis,” World Resources Institute, http://pdf.wri.org/fishanswer_fulltext.pdf (accessed January 30, 2012).
11. American University, “Peruvian Anchovy Case,”. www1.american.edu/TED/anchovy.htm (accessed March 7, 2012).
12. George Pararas-Carayannis, “A Year after Johannesburg, Ocean Governance and Sustainable Development: Ocean and Coasts—a Glimpse into the Future,” International Ocean Institute, www.drgeorgepc.com/OceanGovernance.html (accessed January 30, 2012).
13. Mark Bittman, “A Seafood Snob Ponders the Future of Fish,” New York Times, November 15, 2008.
14. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department, The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture (Rome: FAO, 2010).
15. Ruth Thurstan, Simon Brockington, and Callum Roberts. “The Effects of 118 Years of Industrial Fishing on UK Bottom Trawl Fisheries,” Nature Communications (2010): doi 10.1038/ncomms1013.
16. Sea Around Us Project, “Stock Status in the Global Ocean,” www.seaaroundus.org/global/1/101.aspx (accessed March 7, 2012); Boris Worm et al., Impacts of Biodiversity Loss on Ocean Ecosystem Services,” Science 13 no. 5800 (November 3 2006787–90; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “Fisheries at the Limit?”
17. Manjula Guru, “The Ogallala Aquifer,” The Kerr Center for Sustainable Agriculture, Inc, www.kerrcenter.com/publications/ogallala_aquifer.pdf (accessed March 7, 2012).
18. David Biello, “Is Northwestern India’s Breadbasket Running Out of Water?” Scientific American, August 12, 2009.
19. Lester Brown, “China’s Water Table Levels Are Dropping Fast,” Grist, October 26, 2001, http://grist.org/food/table/ (accessed January 31, 2012).
20. Lester Brown, “Aquifer Depletion,” The Encyclopedia of Earth, January 23, 2010. www.eoearth.org/article/Aquifer_depletion (accessed January 31, 2012).
21. Fred Pearce, “Water Scarcity: The Real Food Crisis,” Yale Environment 360, June 3, 2009, http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=1825 (accessed February 6, 2012).
22. Sarah Zielinski, “The Colorado River Runs Dry,” Smithsonian Magazine, October 2010.
23. Philip Whish-Wilson, “The Aral Sea Environmental Health Crisis,” Journal of Rural and Remote Environmental Health 1, no. 2 (2002): 29–34.
24. World Resources Institute, “Earth Trends: The Environmental Information Portal,” http://earthtrends.wri.org (accessed March 7, 2012).
25. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, State of the World’s Forests (Rome: FAO, 2011).
26. James Astill, “Seeing the Wood,” Economist, September 23, 2010.
27. Frank Field, “How You Can Save the Rainforest,” Sunday Times (London), October 8, 2006.
28. National Footprint Accounts, “Calculation Methodology for the National Footprint Accounts, 2010 Edition,” www.footprintnetwork.org (accessed March 7, 2012).
29. Global Footprint Network, “Humanity’s Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity through Time,” www.footprintnetwork.org/atlas (accessed March 7, 2012).
five greenhouse earth
1. United States Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, “Retreat of Glaciers in Glacier National Park,” http://nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/glacier_retreat.htm (accessed February 6, 2012).
2. Georg Kaser, Douglas Hardy, Thomas Molg, Raymond Bradley, and Tharsis Hyera, “Modern Glacier Retreat on Kilimanjaro as Evidence of Climate Change: Observations and Facts,” International Journal of Climatology 24 (2004): 329–39.
3. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “NOAA Data Set N 09 Area,” ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Sep/N_09_area.txt (accessed March 7, 2012).
4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001).
5. Geoffrey Lean, “For the First Time in Human History, the North Pole Can Be Circumnavigated,” Independent, August 31, 2008.
6. Vladimir Romanovsky, “Arctic Theme Page,” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, www.arctic.noaa.gov/essay_romanovsky.html (accessed February 6, 2012).
7. Anna York, “Alaskan Village Stands on Leading Edge of Climate Change,” University of Carolina at Chapel Hill, http://unc.news21.com/index.php/stories/alaska.html (accessed February 6, 2012).
8. Hinkle Charitable Foundation, “Report: How Real Is Global Warming? The Physical Evidence,” www.thehcf.org/emaila1.html (accessed March 7, 2012).
9. Robin McKie, “Natural Signs That Show Spring Comes Earlier,” Guardian, January 22, 2011.
10. Seth Borenstein, “Spring Keeps Coming Earlier for Birds, Bees, Trees,” USA Today, March 21, 2008.
11. John Church and Neil White, “A 20th Century Acceleration in Global Sea-Level Rise,” Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006). doi:10.1029/2005GL024826.
12. John Tyndall, “The Bakerian Lecture: On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption, and Conduction,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 151 (1861): 1–36.
13. H. Le Treut, R. Somerville, U. Cubasch, Y. Ding, C. Mauritzen, A. Mokssit, T. Peterson, and M. Prather, “Historical Overview of Climate Change,” in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007).
14. Svante Arrhenius, Svante, “On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground,” Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science, April 1896.
15. John Gribbon and Mary Gribbon, James Lovelock: In Search of Gaia (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009).
16. Eugene Robinson, “The Scientific Finding That Settles the Climate-Change Debate,” Washington Post, October 24, 2011.
17. Richard Muller, “I Stick to the Science,” Scientific American, June 2011.
18. Richard Muller, “Statement to the Committee on Science, Space and Technology of the United States House of Representatives,” http://berkeleyearth.org/pdf/muller-testimony-31-march-2011.pdf (accessed February 6, 2012).
19. Robert Rohde et al. “Berkeley Earth Temperature Averaging Process,” Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project, http://berkeleyearth.org/pdf/berkeley-earth-averaging-process.pdf (accessed February 7, 2012).
20. Kevin Trenberth, et al., “Chapter 3: Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change,” in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007).
21. Ibid.
22. World Meterological Organization, Press Release No. 935, www.wmo.int (accessed February 2, 2012).
23. Judith Lean and David Rind, “How Natural and Anthropogenix Influences Alter Global and Regional Surface Temperatures: 1889 to 2006,” Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008).
24. C. Bertrand, J. P. Ypersele, and A. Berger, “Volcanic and Solar Impacts on Climate Since 1700,” Climate Dynamics 15. no. 5 (1998): 355–67.
25. NOAA, “Global Climate Change Indicators,” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, www.ncdc.noaa.gov/indicators/ (accessed March 7, 2012).
26. John Cook, “CO2 Lags Temperature—What Does It Mean?” Skeptical Science, www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature-intermediate.htm (accessed February 24, 2012).
27. Aradhna K. Tripati, Christopher D. Roberts, and Robert A. Eagle, “Coupling of CO2 and Ice Sheet Stability over Major Climate Transitions of the Last 20 Million Years,” Science 326. no. 5958 (2009): 1394–97.
28. John Harries, Helen Brindley, Pretty Sagoo, and Richard Bantges, “Increases in Greenhouse Forcing Inferred from the Outgoing Longwave Radiation Spectra of the Earth in 1970 and 1997,” Nature, May 17, 2000, 355–57.
29. Nate Hagens, “Unconventional Oil: Tar Sands and Shale Oil—EROI on the Web,” The Oil Drum: Net Energy, www.theoildrum.com/node/3839 (accessed February 2, 2012).
30. Cleveland, “An Assessment of the Energy Return of Investment of Oil Shale.”
31. Anthony Stranges, “Friedrich Bergius and the Rise of the German Synthetic Fuel Industry,” ISIS 75 (1984): 643–67.
32. World Coal Association, “Emissions Reductions from Synthetic Fuels,” www.worldcoal.org/coal/uses-of-coal/coal-to-liquids/ (accessed February 24, 2012).
33. Natural Resources Defense Council, “Why Liquid Coal Is Not a Viable Option to Move America beyond Oil,” www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/coal/liquids.pdf (accessed February 24, 2012).
34. Jeffrey Kiehl. “Lessons from Earth’s Past,” Science, January 14, 2011, 158–59.
35. A. P. Sokolov, et al. “Probabilistic Forecast for Twenty-First-Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (without Policy) and Climate Parameters,” Journal of Climate 22, no. 19 (2009): 5175–5204.
36. Ibid.
37. Janet Larsen, “Setting the Record Straight: More Than 52,000 Europeans Died from Heat in Summer 2003,” Earth Policy Institute, www.earth-policy.org (accessed March 7, 2012).
38. Tania Branigan, “Drought Threatens Chinese Wheat Crop,” Guardian, February 4, 2009.
39. Jilin Dunhua, “Flood-Hit Families to Get Subsidies from Government to Rebuild Homes,” Xinhua, August 8, 2010, http://news.xinhuanet.com (accessed March 7, 2012).
40. Lucia Kim and Maria Levitov, “Russia Heat Wave May Kill 15,000, Shave $15 Billion of GDP,” Bloomberg News, August 10, 2010.
41. “Pakistan Floods Seen as Massive Economic Challenge,” New Zealand Radio, August 22, 2010, www.radionz.co.nz/news/world (accessed March 7, 2012).
42. Hillary Hylton, “The Great Dry State of Texas: The Drought That Wouldn’t Leave Has Lone Star Farmers Scared,” Time, August 10, 2011.
43. Texas Business, “Texas Wheat Crop to Fall by Two-Thirds,” www.texasbusiness.com (accessed February 2, 2012).
44. Whitney McFerron and Jeff Wilson, “Drought Withers Smallest Hay Crop in Century to Boost Beef Costs,” Bloomberg News, July 25, 2011.
45. Bryan Walsh, “Drought Cripples the South: Why the ‘Creeping Disaster’ Could Get a Whole Lot Worse,” Time, August 9, 2011.
46. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2009). http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf (accessed February 2, 2012).
47. S. Rahmstorf and D. Coumou, “Increase of Extreme Events in a Weather World,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108, no. 44 (2011): 17905–909.
48. Kerry Emanuel, “Increasing Destructiveness of Tropical Cyclones over the Past 30 Years,” Nature 436 (2005).
49. P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, and H. R. Chang, “Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment,” Science 309, no. 5742 (September 16, 2005): 1844–46.
50. National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Services, “State of the Climate Wildfires, January 2011,” www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/fire/2011/1 (accessed February 2, 2012).
51. Incident Information System, “Texas Initial Attack News Release; Texas Wildfires 2011 Fact Sheet,” www.inciweb.org/incident/article/2315/13641/ (accessed February 24, 2012).
52. David Bowman et al., “Fire in the Earth System,” Science 324, no. 5926 (2009).
53. Aiguo Dai, “Drought under Global Warming: A Review,” Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2, no. 1 (2011): 45–65.
54. Ibid.
55. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “2050: A Third More Mouths to Feed; Food Production Will Have to Increase by 70 percent,” www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/35571/ (accessed February 24, 2012).
56. David Lobell, Wolfram Schlenker, and Justin Costa-Roberts, “Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980,” Science 333, no. 6042 (July 29, 2011): 616–20.
57. David Grantz and Anil Shrestha, “Ozone Reduces Crop Yields and Alters Competition with Weeds Such as Yellow Nutsedge,” California Agriculture 59, no. 2 (2005).
58. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “Potentially Catastrophic Climate Impacts On Food,” www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/54337/icode/ (accessed February 24, 2012).
59. S. L. Lewis, P. M. Brando, O. L. Phillips, G. M. F. van der Heijden, and D. Nepstad, “The 2010 Amazon Drought,” Science 331, no. 6017 (2011): 554, doi: 10.1126/science.1200807
60. Lauren Morello, “Another Amazon Drought Spurs Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” Scientific American, February 4, 2011.
61. Global Issues, “Coral Reefs: Ecosystems of Environmental and Human Value,” www.globalissues.org/article/173/coral-reefs (accessed February 24, 2012).
62. I. E. Hendriks, C. M. Duarte, and M. Alvarez, “Vulnerability of Marine Biodiversity to Ocean Acidification: A Meta-Analysis,” Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 86, no. 2 (2010).
63. Justin Ries, Anne Cohen, and Daniel McCorkle, “Marine Calcifiers Exhibit Mixed Responses to CO2-Induced Ocean Acidification,” Geology 37, no. 12 (July 21, 2009): 1131–34.
64. Andy Ridgwell and Daniela N. Schmidt, “Past Constraints on the Vulnerability of Marine Calcifiers to Massive Carbon Dioxide Release,” Nature Geoscience 14 (February 2010), doi: 10.1038/NGEO755. Zimmer, “An Ominous Warning on the Effects of Ocean Acidification,” Yale Environment 360, http://e360.yale.edu (accessed February 24, 2012).
65. C. Schneibner and R. P. Speijer, Decline of Coral Reefs during Late Paleocene to Early Eocene Global Warming, Copernicus Publications, 2008, www.electronic-earth.net/3/19/2008/ee-3-19-2008.pdf (accessed March 7, 2012).
66. Clay Kelly et al., “Rapid Diversification of Planktonic Foraminifera in the Tropical Pacific (ODP Site 865) during the Late Paleocene Thermal Maximum,” Geology 24, no. 5 (1996): 423–26.
67. Robin Huttenbach, “Cumulative Emissions of CO2,” A Response to Climate Change, http://petrolog.typepad.com (accessed February 24, 2012).
68. Drew Shindell et al., “Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions,” Science 326, no. 5953 (2009): 716–18.
69. Global Carbon Project, “Super-Size Deposits of Frozen Carbon in Arctic Could Worsen Climate Change,” ScienceDaily, June 30, 2009.
70. K. M. Walter et al., “Methane Bubbling from Siberian Thaw Lakes as a Positive Feedback to Climate Warming,” Nature 443 (2006): 71–75.
71. Torre Jorgenson, Yuri Shur, and Erik Pullman, “Abrupt Increase in Permafrost Degradation in Arctic Alaska,” Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006).
72. Arthur Max, “Methane Seeping from Siberian Ice a Climate Concern,” Associated Press.
73. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “Forests and Climate Change: Better Forest Management Has Key Role to Play in Dealing with Climate Change,” www.fao.org/newsroom/en/focus/2006/1000247/index.html (accessed February 4, 2012); Crisis Coalition Team, “Permafrost Methane Time Bomb,” www.planetextinction.com/planet_extinction_permafrost.htm (accessed February 4, 2012).
74. Bruce Buffett and David Archer, “Global Inventory of Methane Clathrate: Sensitivity to Changes in the Deep Ocean,” Earth and Planetary Science Letters 227 (2004): 185–99.
75. National Science Foundation, “Methane Releases from Arctic Shelf May Be Much Larger and Faster Than Anticipated” (Press Release 10-036), www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=116532&org=NSF&from=news (accessed February 4, 2012).
76. “‘Fountains’ of Methane 1,000m Across Erupt from Arctic Ice—A Greenhouse Gas 20 Times More Potent Than Carbon Dioxide,” Daily Mail, December 13, 2011.
77. “When Crocodiles Roamed the Arctic,” New Scientist 2661 (June 18, 2008).
78. A. M. Grachev and J. P. Severinghaus, “A Revised 10 4C Magnitude of the Abrupt Change in Greenland Temperature at the Younger Dryas Termination Using Published GISP2 Gas Isotope Data and Air Thermal Diffusion Constants,” Quaternary Science Reviews 24, nos. 5–6 (2005): 513–19.
79. K. C. Taylor, “The Holocene-Younger Dryas Transition Recorded at Summit, Greenland,” Science 279, no. 5339 (1997): 825–25.
80. Only Zero Carbon, “Message from Ancient Ice,” www.onlyzerocarbon.org/uploads/Ice_messaging.pdf (accessed March 7, 2012).
81. Global Warming Forecast, “Global Warming Underestimates and Misforecasts: Global Warming Underestimated,” www.global-warming-forecasts.com/under estimates.php (accessed February 24, 2012).
six end of the party?
1. Bill McKibben, Eaarth: Making a Life on a Tough Planet (New York: Times Books, 2010), 48.
2. Paul Gilding, The Great Disruption: Why the Climate Crisis Will Bring on the End of Shopping and the Birth of a New World (New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2011), 1
3. Richard Heinberg, The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality (Gabriola Island, BC: New Society, 2011), 2.
4. World Resources Institute, “Earth Trends: The Environmental Information Portal,” http://earthtrends.wri.org/ (accessed March 7, 2012).
5. Dianne Schwager, “Trends in Single-Occupant Vehicle and Vehicle Miles of Travel Growth in the United States,” Transit Cooperative Research Program, August 1998, http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/tcrp/tcrp_rrd_30.pdf (accessed February 24, 2012).
6. U.S. Department of Energy, “Fact 475: June 25, 2007, Light Vehicle Weight on the Rise,” Vehicle Technologies Program—Facts of the Week, www1.eere.energy.gov (accessed March 7, 2012).
7. Wards Auto, “Data Center,” http://wardsauto.com/data-center (accessed March 7, 2012).
8. Center for Sustainable Systems, University of Michigan, “U.S. Environmental Footprint,” http://css.snre.umich.edu/css_doc/CSS08-08.pdf (accessed February 4, 2012).
9. Gilding, The Great Disruption, 1
10. Heinberg, The End of Growth, 2
11. Congressional Research Service, “China-U.S. Trade Issues.” http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/155009.pdf (accessed March 7, 2012).
12. Anna Ringstrom, “Global Military Spending Hits High but Growth Slows,” Reuters, April 10, 2011.
13. World Trade Organization, “World Trade Developments,” www.wto.org (accessed March 7, 2012).
14. Brad Johnson, “Pentagon: ‘Climate Change, Energy Security, and Economic Stability Are Inextricably Linked,’” Think Progress, February 1, 2010, www.grist.org (accessed February 4, 2012).
15. Fred Thompson, “The Darfur Genocide and Global Warming,” Townhall, June 28, 2007, http://townhall.com/columnists/fredthompson/2007 (accessed March 7, 2012).
16. David Zhang et al., “Climate Change and War Frequency in Eastern China over the Last Millennium,” Human Ecology 35, no. 4 (2011): 403–14.
17. “Unquenchable Thirst: A Growing Rivalry between India, Pakistan and China over the Region’s Great Rivers May Be Threatening South Asia’s Peace,” Economist, November 19, 2011.
seven the first energy technology
1. Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb (New York: Sierra Club/Ballantine Books, 1968).
2. UN Data, “Population Database,” http://data.un.org/ (accessed March 7, 2012).
3. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “FAOSTAT,” faostat.fao.org/ accessed January 23, 2012.
4. Lyn Wadley and Zenobia Jacobs, “Sibudu Cave, KwaZulu-Natal: Background to the Excavations of Middle Stone Age and Iron Age Occupations,” South African Journal of Science 100 (March 2004): 145–51.
5. Marcus J. Hamilton, Bruce T. Milne, Robert S. Walker, and James H. Brown, “Nonlinear Scaling of Space Use in Human Hunter-Gatherers,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, no. 11 (March 13, 2007): 4765–69.
6. AgBioWorld, “Iowans Who Fed the World—Norman Borlaug: Geneticist,” www.agbioworld.org (accessed March 7, 2012).
7. William Gaud, “The Green Revolution: Accomplishments and Apprehensions,” www.agbioworld.org (accessed February 4, 2012).
8. Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture (Rome: FAO, 2010).
9. Data compiled from multiple sources. Pre-agrarian population density from: Hamilton et al., “Nonlinear Scaling of Space Use.” Preindustrial agricultural productivity from B. H. Slicher Van Bath, “The Yields of Different Crops (Mainly Cereals) in Relation to the Seed,” In Acta Historiae Neerlandica II, ed. J. W. Schulte and J. A. Faber (Leiden, Netherlands: E. J. Brill, 1967). Yields since 1800 from: Food and Agriculture Organization, “FAOSTAT.”
10. M. Colchester and L. Lohmann, “The Struggle for Land and the Fate of the Forest,” Forestry 67, no. 2 (1994): 167–68.
11. Daniel Cantliffe, “Protected Structures for Production of High Valve Vegetable Crops for Florida Producers,” The Protected Agriculture Project, University of Florida, http://hos.ufl.edu/protectedag/overview.htm (accessed February 22, 2012).
12. Jesse Ausubel and Dale Langford, Technological Trajectories and the Human Environment (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 1997).
13. United States Department of Agriculture, “Energy and Agriculture,” USDA 2007 Farm Bill Theme Paper, www.usda.gov/documents/Farmbill07energy.pdf (accessed February 22, 2012); United States Department of Agriculture, “Agricultural Productivity in the United States,” www.ers.usda.gov/Data/AgProductivity/ (accessed February 23, 2012).
14. Jeremy Woods et al., “Energy and the Food System,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 365, no. 1554 (2010): 2991–3006.
15. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural and Consumer Protection Department, “Raising Water Productivity,” www.fao.org/ag/magazine/0303sp2.htm (accessed February 15, 2012).
16. United States Summary and State Data, “2007 Census of Agriculture,” www.agcensus.usda.gov/Publications/2007/Full_Report/usv1.pdf (accessed March 7, 2012).
17. Ricegrowers’ Association of Australia, “Australian Rice Growers Are Continually Improving Their Water Use Efficiency,” www.aboutrice.com/facts/fact01.html (accessed February 23, 2012).
18. USGS, “Management Practices a Factor in Herbicide Declines,” http://toxics.usgs.gov/highlights/herbicide_decline.html (accessed February 15, 2012).
eight the transformer
1. Paul Romer, “Endogenous Technological Change,” Journal of Political Economy 98, no. 5 (1990), http://artsci.wustl.edu/~econ502/Romer.pdf (accessed March 7, 2012).
2. David Henderson, The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics (Indianapolis, IN: Liberty Fund, 2008).
3. WattzOn, Embodied Energy Database, www.wattzon.com/ (accessed March 7, 2012).
4. Henderson, The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics.
5. Stephen Fenichell, Plastic: The Making of a Synthetic Century (New York: Harper Collins, 1996).
6. Adrian Kinnane, DuPont: From the Banks of the Brandywine to Miracle of Science (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2002).
7. Nylon-Stocking-Society, www.orgsites.com/oh/nylon-stocking-society/ (accessed February 15, 2012).
8. Jeffrey Meikle, American Plastic: A Cultural History (New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 1995).
9. P. C. W. Davies and Julian Brown, Superstrings: A Theory of Everything? (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992).
10. Alex Hudson, “Is Graphene a Miracle Material?” BBC News, May 21, 2011; and Columbia News, “Columbia Engineers Prove Graphene Is the Strongest Material,” www.columbia.edu/cu/news/08/07/graphene.html (accessed March 7, 2012).
nine the substitute
1. Herman Melville, Moby-Dick; or The Whale (1851; repr., New York: Library of America, 1983), 1249.
2. Peter Applebome, “They Used to Say Whale Oil Was Indispensable, Too,” New York Times, August 3, 2008.
3. Hal Whitehead, Sperm Whales: Social Evolution in the Ocean (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2003).
4. Nathaniel Philbrick, In the Heart of the Sea: The Tragedy of the Whaleship Essex (New York: Penguin, 2001).
5. Walter Tower, A History of the American Whale Fishery (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania, 1907).
6. James Robbins, “How Capitalism Saved the Whales,” New Scotland, http://newscotland1398.ca/99/gesner-whales.html (accessed February 15, 2012).
7. R. M. Hazen, The Diamond Makers (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999).
8. D. Leckel, “Diesel Production from Fischer-Tropsch: The Past, the Present, and New Concepts,” Energy Fuels 23 (2009): 2342–58.
ten the reducer
1. Ernst Worrell, Paul Blinde, Maarten Neelis, Eliane Blomen, and Eric Masanet, “Energy Efficiency Improvement and Cost Saving Opportunities for the U.S. Iron and Steel Industry,” Berkeley National Laboratory, October 2010, www.energystar.gov/ia/business/industry/Iron_Steel_Guide.pdf (accessed February 15, 2012).
2. “The Elusive Negawatt: If Energy Conservation Both Saves Money and Is Good for the Planet, Why Don’t More People Do More of It?” Economist, May 8, 2008; “Appliance Standards Awareness Project,” www.appliance-standards.org (accessed March 7, 2012).
3. Office of Energy of Efficiency, “Energy Efficiency Trends in Canada 1990 to 2005,” Natural Resources Canada, http://oee.nrcan.gc.ca (accessed February 21, 2012).
4. U.S. Department of Energy, “Energy Intensity Indicators in the U.S.: Residential Buildings Total Energy Consumption,” www1.eere.energy.gov/ba/pba/intensityindicators (accessed February 15, 2012).
5. P. M. Peeters, J. Middel, and A. Hoolhorst, “Fuel Efficiency of Commercial Aircraft,” National Aerospace Laboratory (NLR), November 2005, www.transportenvironment.org/Publications (accessed February 15, 2012).
6. Airlines for America, “Annual Round-Trip Fares and Fees: Domestic,” www.airlines.org (accessed February 23, 2012).
7. S. J. Smith et al., “Anthropogenic Sulfur Dioxide Emissions: 1850–2005,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 10 (2010): 16111–151.
8. Joel Schwartz, “Future Air Pollution Levels and Climate Change: A Step Toward Realism,” World Climate Change, August 10, 2007, www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2007/08/10 (accessed February 15, 2012).
9. United States Environmental Protection Agency, “National and Local Trends in Lead Levels,” www.epa.gov/air/airtrends/lead.html (accessed February 15, 2012).
10. United States Department of Energy, “Fuel Economy: Where the Energy Goes,” www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml (accessed February 15, 2012).
11. Bullitt Center, “Living Building Challenge,” http://bullittcenter.org/ (accessed March 7, 2012).
12. Based on national average energy use of 17 kwh per square foot and $.10 per kwh electricity prices.
13. Phil McKenna, “Buildings and Clothes Could Melt to Save Energy,” New Scientist, January 5, 2012.
14. Consortium for Energy Efficiency, “2011 Annual Industry Report,” www.cee1.org/ee-pe/2011AIR.php3 (accessed March 7, 2012).
15. John Laitner, Steven Nadel, Neal Elliot, Harvey Sachs, and Siddiq Khan, “The Long-Term Energy Efficiency Potential: What the Evidence Suggests,” American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, January 11, 2012, http://aceee.org/research-report/E121 (accessed February 21, 2012).
16. Clean Air Task Force, “SO2, NOx mercury Emissions,” www.coaltransition.org/pages/gasification_page_link1/45.php (accessed February 21, 2012).
eleven the recycler
1. Exodus 15:25
2. DESWARE, Encyclopedia of Desalination and Water Resources, “Timelines—Desalination Technology,” www.desware.net/Timelines-Desalination-Technology.aspx (accessed February 21, 2012).
3. Ibid.
4. “Tapping the Oceans,” Economist, June 5, 2008.
5. Menachem Elimelech and William A. Phillip, “The Future of Seawater Desalination: Energy, Technology, and the Environment,” Science 333, no. 6043 (August 5, 2011): 712–17.
6. Black & Veatch Ltd, “Black & Veatch-Designed Desalination Plant Wins Global Water Distinction,” www.edie.net/news/news_story.asp?id=11402&channel=0 (accessed February 24, 2012).
7. “French-Run Water Plant Launched in Israel,” European Jewish Press, December 28, 2005, www.ejpress.org/article/4873 (accessed February 24, 2012).
8. Spanish Succession, “Cannonade of Helchteren 1702,” www.spanishsuccession.nl/helchteren.html (accessed March 7, 2012).
9. Enhanced Landfill Mining Consortium, “Enhanced Landfill Mining and the Transition to Sustainable Materials Management,” www.elfm-symposium.eu/downloads.php (accessed March 7, 2012).
10. Kit Strange, “Landfill Mining: Preserving Resources through Integrated Sustainable Management of Waste,” World Resource Foundation, www.enviroalternatives.com/landfill.html (accessed February 24, 2012).
11. Justin Thomas, “There’s Gold in Them Thar Smelly Hills,” Treehugger, July 29, 2006, www.treehugger.com (accessed February 2, 2012).
12. International Panel for Sustainable Resource Management, “Metal Stocks in Society,” www.unep.org/resourcepanel/Portals/24102/PDFs/Metalstocksinsociety.pdf (accessed March 7, 2012).
13. Louise Gray, “Britain ‘Could Be Mining Landfill for Gold in a Decade,’” Telegraph, October 8, 2008.
14. Hiroku Tabuchi, “Japan Recycles Minerals from Used Electronics,” New York Times, October 4, 2010.
15. “Rare Element Resources: Potential Short Opportunity,” Shareholder Watchdog, October 21, 2010.
16. Van Gercen et al., “An Integrated Materials Valorisation Scheme for Enhanced Landfill Mining,” International Academic Symposium on Enhanced Landfill Mining, www.elfm-symposium.eu (accessed February 4, 2012).
17. Thomas, “There’s Gold in Them Thar Smelly Hills.”
18. International Energy Agency, “Turing a Liability into an Asset: The Importance of Policy in Fostering Landfill Gas Use Worldwide,” www.iea.org/papers/2009/landfill.pdf (accessed February 4, 2012).
19. Gas Separation Technology LLC, “Landfill Gas,” www.gassep.com/lfg.htm (accessed February 24, 2012).
20. R. P. Siegel, “Virgin Atlantic’s New Waste Fuel Gas Program Will Save Billions of Gallons,” Triple Pundit, October 17, 2011, www.triplepundit.com/2011/10/ (accessed February 4, 2012).
21. Katie Fehrenbacher, “Alphabet Energy: Capturing Waste Heat for $1 per Watt,” GigaOM, May 3, 2010, http://gigaom.com (accessed February 24, 2012).
22. James Elser and Stuart White, “Peak Phosphorus,” Foreign Policy, April 20, 2010.
23. Sustainable Phosphorus Futures, http://phosphorusfutures.net/ (accessed March 7, 2012).
24. Sustainable Phosphorus Futures, “Phosphorus Recovery,” http://phosphorusfutures.net/ (accessed March 7, 2012).
25. Xiurong Wang, Yingxiang Wang, Jiang Tian, Boon Lim, Xiaolong Yan, and Hong Liao, “Overexpressing AtPAP15 Enhances Phosphorus Efficiency in Soybean,” Plant Physiology 151 (2009): 233–40, www.plantphysiol.org/content/151/1/233.abstract (accessed February 4, 2012).
26. Copper Development Association, “Copper in the USA: Bright Future Glorious Past,” www.copper.org/education/history/g_fact_producers.html (accessed February 4, 2012).
27. Earth 911, “Facts about Aluminum Recycling,” http://earth911.com (accessed February 24, 2012).
28. Kyle Morris, “Recycling Importance of Gold and Lead,” Emporia State University, http://academic.emporia.edu/abersusa/go336/morris/ (accessed February 24, 2012).
29. TAPPI, “Frequently Asked Questions,” www.tappi.org/paperu/all_about_paper/faq.htm (accessed February 24, 2012).
30. Bureau of International Recycling, Ferrous Division, “World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006–2010,” www.bir.org (accessed February 24, 2012).
31. Ziggy Hanaor, Recycle: The Essential Guide (London: Black Dog Publishing, 2005).
twelve the multiplier
1. State Master, “Total Electricity Consumption by State,” www.statemaster.com (accessed February 24, 2012).
2. Dennis Elliot, Marc Schwartz, Steve Haymes, Donna Heimiller, and Walt Musial, “Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Potential in the United States,” National Renewable Energy Laboratory, www.nrel.gov/docs/fy11osti/51332.pdf (accessed February 24, 2012).
3. Wes Hermann and A. J. Simon, “Global Exergy Flux, Reservoirs, and Destruction,” Global Climate and Energy Project, http://gcep.stanford.edu/pdfs/GCEP_Exergy_Poster_web.pdf (accessed February 24, 2012).
4. W. L. Chan et al., “Observing the Multiexciton State in Singlet Fission and Ensuing Ultrafast Multielectron Transfer,” Science 334, no. 6062 (2011): 1541–45.
5. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review, “Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2008,” www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0908464.html (accessed February 24, 2012).
6. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, “Cost Curves 2002,” www.nrel.gov (accessed March 7, 2012).
7. Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger, “2009 Wind Technologies Market Report,” U.S. Department of Energy, www.nrel.gov (accessed March 7, 2012).
8. K. Branker, M. J. M. Pathak, and J. M. Pearce, “A Review of Solar Photovoltaic Levelized Cost of Electricity,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 15, no. 9 (2011): 4470–82.
9. Brian Wingfield, “GE Sees Solar Cheaper Than Fossil Power in Five Years,” Bloomberg News, May 26, 2011.
10. Ibid.
11. Solarbuzz, “Module Pricing,” www.solarbuzz.com/node/3184 (accessed March 7, 2012).
12. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012). http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/IPCC_SRREN_Full_Report.pdf (accessed February 27, 2012).
13. Solarbuzz, “Module Pricing: Retail Price Summary—February 2012 Update,” www.solarbuzz.com/node/3184 (accessed February 27, 2012).
14. Joseph Kanter, Ana Mileva, and Dan Kammen, “Solar Photovoltaics,” Gigaton Throwdown, U.C. Berkley, www.gigatonthrowdown.org (accessed February 24, 2012).
15. Evergreen Solar, Inc., “Evergreen Solar and Silpro Announce Polysilicon Supply Agreement,” http://renewableenergystocks.blogspot.com/2007/12 (accessed February 24, 2012).
16. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, “PV FAQs,” www.nrel.gov/docs/fy04osti/35489.pdf (accessed February 24, 2012); Colin Bankier and Steve Gale, “Energy Payback of Roof Mounted Photovoltaic Cells,” Energy Bulletin, June 16, 2006.
17. Renewable Energy Corporation ASA, “REC Produces First PV Modules with One Year Energy Payback Time and Leading Low Carbon Footprint,” www.recgroup.com/en/media/newsroom (accessed February 24, 2012).
18. David Murphy and Charles Hall, “Year in Review—EROI or Energy Return on (Energy) Invested,” Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1185 Ecological Economics Reviews (January 2010): 102–18; Cutler Cleveland, “Net Energy from the Extraction of Oil and Gas in the United States, 1954–1997,” http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu (accessed February 27, 2012).
19. Parliament of the United Kingdom, “Chapter 3: Technologies for Renewable Electricity Generation,” www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200708/ldselect/ldeconaf/195/19506.htm (accessed February 24, 2012).
20. David Anderson and Dalia Patino-Echeverri, “An Evaluation of Current and Future Costs for Lithium-Ion Batteries for Use in Electrified Vehicle Powertrains,” http://dukespace.lib.duke.edu (accessed February 24, 2012).
21. Jonathan Amos, “Solar Plant Makes Record Flight,” BBC News, August 24, 2008.
22. Paula Doe, “Energy Storage Sector Looks to Solid State Solutions,” SEMI, www.semi.org/en/IndustrySegments/CTR_037160?id=sguna0610 (accessed February 13, 2012).
23. EOS Energy Storage, “Energy Storage: Opportunity Summary,” www.eosenergystorage.com/download/Eos_General0611.pdf (accessed February 14, 2012).
24. Chen-Xi Zu and Hong Li, “Thermodynamic Analysis on Energy Densities of Batteries,” Energy & Environmental Science 8 (2011).
25. Alexander Farrell et al., “Ethanol Can Contribute to Energy and Environmental Goals,” Science 311, no. 5760 (2006): 506–8.
26. David Murphy, C.A. S. Hall, and Bobby Powers, “New Perspectives on the Energy Return on Investments of Corn Based Ethanol: Part 1 of 2,” Environment, Development, and Sustainability 13, no. 1 (July 2010).
27. Tom Doggett, “Ethanol to take 30 percent of U.S. Corn Crop in 2012: GAO,” Reuters, June 11, 2007, www.reuters.com/article/2007/06/11 (accessed February 14, 2012).
28. Elizabeth Weise, “Ethanol Pumping Up Food Prices,” USA Today, February 14, 2011.
29. Jim Lane, “Steel in the Ground,” Biofuels Digest, www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2011/03/10 (accessed February 22, 2012).
30. Ibid.
31. David Duncan, “Big Oil Turns to Algae,” MIT Technology Review, July 22, 2009.
32. Bryan Willson, “Large Scale Production of Microalgae for Biofuels,” Solix Biofuels, www.ascension-publishing.com/BIZ/Solix.pdf (accessed February 27, 2012).
33. Concentric Energies & Resource Group, “2008–2009 Review, U.S. Biofuels Industry: Mind the Gap,” www1.eere.energy.gov (accessed March 7, 2012).
34. Stacy Feldman, “Algae Fuel Inches toward Price Parity with Oil,” Reuters, November 22, 2010.
35. Suzanne Goldenberg, “Algae to Solve the Pentagon’s Jet Fuel Problem,” Guardian, February 13, 2010.
36. Nathan Hodge, “U.S.’s Afghan Headache: $400-a-Gallon Gasoline,” Wall Street Journal, December 6, 2011.
37. Kevin Bullis, “A Biofuel Process to Replace All Fossil Fuels,” MIT Technology Review, July 27, 2009. Brendan Borrell, “Clean Dreams or Pond Scum? ExxonMobil and Craig Venter Team Up in Quest for Algae-Based Biofuels,” Scientific American, July 14, 2009.
38. Joule, “About Joule Unlimited,” www.jouleunlimited.com/about/overview (accessed February 10, 2012).
39. James Hamilton, “Nonlinearities and the Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Prices,” University of California, San Diego. Department of Economics, December 9, 2009, http://dss.ucsd.edu/~jhamilto/oil_nonlinear_macro_dyn.pdf (accessed February 10, 2012).
40. Liz Morrison, “Make Fertilizer from Thin Air?” Corn & Soybean Digest, December 15, 2011, http://cornandsoybeandigest.com (accessed February 10, 2012).
41. Alex Renton, “Barefoot Solar Engineers of India,” OneWorld South Asia, November 9, 2009, http://southasia.oneworld.net (accessed February 10, 2012).
42. Barefoot College, “About Us,” www.barefootcollege.org/ (accessed February 27, 2012).
43. John Hanger, “Global Wind Revolution Hits 240,000 Megawatts and to Double Again,” John Hanger’s Facts of the Day, http://johnhanger.blogspot.com (accessed February 27, 2012).
44. ECN, “Global PV Installations to Hit 24 GW in 2011 Predicts IMS Research,” www.ecnmag.com/News/2011/11 (accessed February 10, 2012).
45. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation.
46. World Wildlife Fund, “The Energy Report: 100 percent Renewable Energy by 2050,” http://wwf.panda.org (accessed February 22, 2012).
47. “A Plan for 100 percent Energy from Wind, Water, and Solar by 2050,” Skeptical Science, March 27, 2011, www.skepticalscience.com (accessed February 10, 2012).
thirteen investing in ideas
1. Bill Scanlon, “Breakthrough Furnace Can Cut Solar Costs,” National Renewable Energy Laboratory, October 21, 2011, www.nrel.gov (accessed March 7, 2012).
2. Sean Pool, “Investing in Innovation Pays Off,” Science Progress, May 18, 2011, http://scienceprogress.org/2011/05 (accessed March 7, 2012).
3. Wire Reports, “Pickens Says U.S. Oil Imports Rose 28 Percent in 2010,” Tulsa World, January 1, 2011. www.tulsaworld.com (accessed February 22, 2012).
4. Alex Tabarrok, Launching the Innovation Renaissance: A New Path to Bring Smart Ideas to Market Fast (TED Books, 2011).
5. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Databases, Tables & Calculators,” www.bls.gov/data/ (accessed March 7, 2012).
6. Claudia Goldin and Lawrence F. Katz, The Race between Education and Technology (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2010).
7. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Employment Projections,” www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htm (accessed March 7, 2012).
8. Robert Balfanz, John Bridgeland, Joanna Fox, and Laura Moore, “Building a Grad Nation; Progress and Challenge in Ending the High School Dropout Epidemic,” America’s Promise Alliance, www.americaspromise.org (accessed March 7, 2012).
9. Sean Reardon, “The Widening Academic Achievement Gap between the Rich and the Poor: New Evidence and Possible Explanations,” Stanford University, http://cepa.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/reardon whither opportunity—chapter 5.pdf (accessed March 7, 2012).
10. National Center for Education Studies, http://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=37.
fourteen the flaw in the market
1. Lisa Brandt and Thomas Rawski, China’s Great Economic Transformation (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008).
2. Gideon Rachman, Zero-Sum Future: American Power in an Age of Anxiety (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2011).
3. “India’s Poverty Will Fall From 51 percent to 22 percent by 2015: UN Report,” Times of India, July 8, 2011.
4. Jonah Lehrer, “A Physicist Solves the City,” New York Times, December 17, 2010; Arie de Geus, Living Company: Habits for Survival in a Turbulent Business Environment (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2002).
5. John Hagel III, “Running Fast, Falling Behind,” Knowledge @ Wharton, June 23, 2010, http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2523 (accessed February 10, 2012).
6. Michael Ellman, “Soviet Agricultural Policy,” Economic and Political Weekly 23, no. 24 (1988).
7. Encyclopedia of the Nations, “Soviet Union: Policy and Administration,” www.country-data.com/cgi-bin/query/r-12746.html (accessed February 27, 2012).
8. The Great Idea Finder, “20th Century Innovation Timeline,” www.ideafinder.com/history/timeline/the1900s.htm (accessed February 10, 2012).
9. Caleb Johnson, “Tisquantum, Massasoit, and Hobbamock,” Mayflower History, www.mayflowerhistory.com/History/indians4.php (accessed February 10, 2012).
10. Anti-Defamation League, “Lewis and Clark: The Unheard Voices,” www.adl.org/education/curriculum_connections/NA_Quotes.asp (accessed February 10, 2012).
11. Kelly Sloan, “‘The Fruits of the Earth Belong to Us All’ The Left’s Hostility Toward Competition,” Liberty Ink, 2011, www.libertyinkjournal.com (accessed February 27, 2012).
12. Aristotle, Politics, ed. Benjamin Jowett (New York: Dover Publications, 2000).
13. Quoted in Rachman, Zero-Sum Future, p. 56.
fifteen market solutions
1. Richard Conniff, “The Political History of Cap and Trade,” Smithsonian, August 2009.
2. Steven Hayward, “Energy Fact of the Week: Sulfur Dioxide Emissions from Coal Have Declined 54 Percent,” The American, April 21, 2011.
3. Roger Raufer and Stephen Feldman, Acid Rain and Emissions Trading (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 1987.
4. Environmental Protection Agency, “Acid Rain Program Benefits Exceed Expectations,” www.epa.gov/capandtrade/documents/benefits.pdf (accessed February 22, 2012).
5. Ibid.
6. “The Legacy of James Watt,” Time, October 24, 1983.
7. Dennis Hayes, “Highest Disregard,” Mother Jones, December 1989.
8. Jeffrey Masters, “The Skeptics vs. the Ozone Hole,” Wunderground, www.wunderground.com (accessed February 22, 2012).
9. Jessica Whittemore, “Reagan and the Montreal Protocol: Environmentalism at Its Unlikely Finest,” The Presidency, www.thepresidency.org/storage/documents/Fellows2008/Whittemore.pdf (accessed February 22, 2012).
10. Cry Wolf Project, “Industry Claims about the Clean Air Act,” June 16, 2009. http://crywolfproject.org (accessed March 7, 2012).
11. Ben Lieberman, “The High Cost of Cool: The Economic Impact of the CFC Phaseout in the United States,” Competitive Enterprise Institute, June 1994, http://cei.org (accessed February 22, 2012).
12. Hart Hodges, “Falling Prices: Cost of Complying with Environmental Regulations Almost Always Less Than Advertised,” Economic Policy Institute, www.epi.org/page/-/old/briefingpapers/bp69.pdf(accessed February 27, 2012).
13. “We Have a Winner: British Columbia’s Carbon Tax Woos Skeptics,” Economist, July 21, 2011.
14. James Hansen, “China Can Slow Global Warming If the US Won’t,” Transition Voice, December 6, 2010, http://transitionvoice.com/2010/12 (accessed February 22, 2012).
15. Keith Bradsher, “China Leading Global Race to Make Clean Energy,” New York Times, January 30, 2010.
16. Wikipedia, “List of Wind Turbine Manufacturers,” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wind_turbine_manufacturers (accessed March 7, 2012).
17. “Winds from the East,” Economist, February 3, 2011.
18. Feng An, Robert Earley, and Lucia Green-Weiskel, “Global Overview of Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Emission Standards: Policy Options and Perspectives for International Cooperation,” United Nations Department of Economics and Social Affairs, May 13, 2011, www.un.org/esa/dsd/resources/res_pdfs/csd-19/Background-paper3-transport.pdf (accessed February 22, 2012).
19. Todd Woody, “Clean Energy Investment Hits Record in 2011 as U.S. Reclaims Lead from China,” Forbes, January 12, 2012.
20. Michael Marshall, “China Set to Launch First Caps on CO2 Emissions,” New Scientist, January 17, 2012.
21. Heritage Foundation, “2012 Index of Economic Freedom,” www.heritage.org/index.
22. “An Expensive Gamble: The Prime Minister Stakes Her Future on a Divisive Scheme,” Economist, July 14, 2011.
23. A. Leiserowitz, E. Maibach, C. Roser-Renouf, N. Smith, and J. D. Hmielowski, Climate Change in the American Mind: Public Support for Climate and Energy Policies in November 2011, Yale University and George Mason University (New Haven, CT: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication).
24. Josh Nelson, “New Gallop Poll Shows Sharp Partisan Divide in Understanding of Climate Change,” Grist, March 16, 2010, www.grist.org (accessed February 22, 2012).
25. Peter Aldhous, “How Not to Change a Climate Skeptic’s Mind,” New Scientist, March 18, 2011.
26. Laurence Smith, Kistler Book Award Prize Ceremony Speech, 2011.
27. Ronald Reagan, Remarks at Dedication Ceremonies for the New Building of the National Geographic Society, June 19, 1984, www.climateconservative.org/Full_Reagan_Speech_Ad_1.pdf.
28. Jamison Foser, “Flashback: Despite Deficits, Reagan Wanted to Increase EPA Funding,” Political Correction, July 18, 2011, http://politicalcorrection.org/blog/201107180010 (accessed February 22, 2012).
sixteen the unthinkable: here there be dragons
1. Dean Fetter, “How Long Will the World’s Uranium Supplies Last?” Scientific American, January 26, 2009, www.scientificamerican.com (accessed February 22, 2012).
2. Clean Air Task Force, “The Toll From Coal,” www.catf.us/resources/publications (accessed February 22, 2012).
3. Gideon Polya, “Pollutants from Coal-Based Electricity Generation Kill 170,000 People Annually,” Green Blog, www.green-blog.org/2008/06/14/ (accessed February 22, 2012).
4. National Police Agency of Japan, “Damage Situation and Police Countermeasures Associated with 2011 Tohoku District,” www.npa.go.jp/archive (accessed March 7, 2012).
5. Burton Bennett, Michael Repacholi, and Zhanat Carr, “Health Effects of the Chernobyl Accident and Special Health Care Programmes,” UN Chernobyl Forum, 2006.
6. Cost of nuclear based on $700 billion in economic damages from disasters, divided by 70 trillion kilowatt hours of energy produced. Social cost of coal: Center for Health and the Global Environment, “Mining Coal, Mounting Costs: The Life Cycle Consequences of Coal,” http://wvgazette.com/static/coaltattoo/HarvardCoalReportSummary.pdf (accessed March 7, 2012).
7. Mara Hvistendahl, “Coal Ash Is More Radioactive Than Nuclear Waste,” Scientific American, December 13, 2007.
8. William Hannum, Gerald Marsh, and George Stanford, “Smarter Use of Fast-Neutron Reactors Could Extract Much More Energy from Recycled Nuclear Fuels, Minimize Risks of Weapons Proliferation and Markedly Reduce the Time Nuclear Waste Must Be Isolated,” Scientific American, December 2005.
9. Hvistendahl, “Coal Ash Is More Radioactive Than Nuclear Waste.”
10. MIT Energy Initiative, “Future of Nuclear Power,” http://web.mit.edu/nuclearpower (accessed February 22, 2012).
11. Armory Lovins, Imran Sheikh, and Alex Markevich, “Nuclear Power: Climate Fix or Folly?” Rocky Mountain Institute, www.rmi.org/Knowledge-Center/Library (accessed February 22, 2012).
12. Craig Severance, Nuclear Information and Resource Service, “Business Risks and Costs of New Nuclear Power,” www.nirs.org/neconomics/nuclearcosts2009.pdf (accessed February 22, 2012).
seventeen the unthinkable: climate engineering
1. “Pilotstandort Ketzin: Geology,” www.co2ketzin.de/index.php?id=13&L=1 (accessed March 7, 2012).
2. Mohammed Al-Juaied and Adam Whitmore, “Realistic Costs of Carbon Capture,” Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, July 2009, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/19185 (accessed March 7, 2012).
3. Mark Little and Robert Jackson, “Potential Impacts of Leakage from Deep CO2 Geosequestration on Overlying Freshwater Aquifers,” Environment Science Technology 44 (2010): 9225–32.
4. Marguerite Holloway, “Trying to Tame the Roar of Deadly Lakes,” New York Times, February 27, 2001.
5. Kurt House et al., “Electrochemical Acceleration of Chemical Weathering as an Energetically Feasible Approach to Mitigating Anthropogenic Climate Change,” Environment Science Technology 41 (2007): 8464–70.
6. Greg Rau, “CO2 Mitigation via Capture and Chemical Conversion in Seawater,” Environment Science Technology 45, no. 3 (2011): 1088–92.
7. Calera, “Inputs Outputs,” http://calera.com/index.php/technology/inputs_outputs/ (accessed March 7, 2012).
8. Jeff Goodell, “The Big Lie in the Durban U.N. Climate Talks,” Rolling Stone, December 1, 2011.
9. Connor, Steve. “Scientist Publishes ‘Escape Route’ from Global Warming,” Independent, July 31, 2006.
eighteen greener than green
1. Joel Archenbach, “A ‘Dead Zone’ in the Gulf of Mexico,” Washington Post, July 31, 2008.
2. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Protecting Water Quality from Agricultural Runoff,” www.epa.gov/owow/NPS/Ag_Runoff_Fact_Sheet.pdf (accessed February 22, 2012).
3. Food and Agriculture Organization, “Livestock a Major Threat to Environment: Remedies Urgently Needed,” November 29, 2006, www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2006 (accessed February 17, 2012).
4. U.S. Department of Agriculture, “2007 Census of Agriculture: 2008 Organic Production Survey,” www.agcensus.usda.gov/ (accessed February 25, 2012).
5. Steven Savage, “A Detailed Analysis of U.S. Organic Crops,” www.scribd.com/doc/47829728 (accessed February 17, 2012).
6. Cattle Today, “Breeds of Beef Cattle,” http://cattle-today.com/ (accessed February 17, 2012).
7. Steven Savage, “The Carbon Footprint of Fertilization with Manure and Composed Manure,” www.scribd.com/doc/17356325 (accessed February 25, 2012). Steven Savage, SustainABlog, “Putting the ‘Carbon Footprint’ of Farming in Perspective,” http://blog.sustainablog.org/2009/07 (accessed February 25, 2012).
8. David Tribe, “High Iron and Zinc Rice Gives Hope to Micronutrient Deficient Millions,” Australian Centre for Plant Functional Genomics, September 10, 2011.
9. Donald Danforth Plant Science Center, “Biocassava Plus Information,” www.danforthcenter.org (accessed February 17, 2012).
10. Colin Osborne and David Beerling, “Nature’s Green Revolution: The Remarkable Evolutionary Rise of C4 Plants,” The Royal Society 361 no. 1465 (2006): 173–94.
11. International Rice Research Institute, “All About C4 Rice Consortium Resources,” http://irri.org/c4rice (accessed February 17, 2012).
12. David Fogarty, “Factbox: Building a Better Rice Plant,” Reuters, June 10, 2011.
13. Debora MacKenzie, “Supercrops: Fixing the Flaws in Photosynthesis,” Colombo Herald, September 20, 2010.
14. Perrin Beatty and Allen Good, “Future Prospects for Cereals That Fix Nitrogen,” Science, 333, no. 6041 (2011): 416–17.
15. “Drought Tolerant GM Wheat Great Progress in China,” Crop Biotech Update, June 17, 2011, www.isaaa.org (accessed February 17, 2012).
16. David Biello, “Coming to a Cornfield Near You: Genetically Induced Drought-Resistance,” Scientific American, May 13, 2011.
17. University of California, Riverside Newsroom, “How Plants Sense Low Oxygen Levels to Survive Flooding,” http://newsroom.ucr.edu/2769 (accessed February 17, 2012).
18. Darren Plett et al., “Improved Salinity Tolerance of Rice through Cell Type-Specific Expression of AtHKT1;1,” PLoS ONE 5, no. 9, September 3, 2010.
19. David Tribe, “Australian Scientific Collaboration Set to Break World’s Reliance on Fish for Long Chain Omega-3,” GMO Pundit, April 11, 2011, http://gmopundit.blogspot.com/2011/04 (accessed February 17, 2012); Stephen Daniells, “Omega 3 Oil from Yeast Similar to Fish Oil in Safety and Nutritional Effect,” GMO Pundit, September 16, 2010, http://gmopundit.blogspot.com/2010/09 (accessed February 17, 2012).
20. P. B. Pope et al., “Isolation of Succinivibrionaceae Implicated in Low Methane Emissions of Tammar Wallabies,” Science, June 30, 2011.
21. Alan Boyle, “Lab-Grown Hamburger to Be Served Up This Year,” MSNBC, February 19, 2012.
22. United States Geological Survey, “Management Practices a Factor in Herbicide Declines,” http://toxics.usgs.gov/highlights/herbicide_decline.html (accessed February 17, 2012).
23. Ibid.
24. Committee on the Impact of Biotechnology on Farm-Level Economics and Sustainability and National Research Council, The Impact of Genetically Engineered Crops on Farm Sustainability in the United States (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2010).
25. Rick Elkins, “No Till Planting Gaining in Popularity,” Recorder Online, June 7, 2011, www.recorderonline.com (accessed February 17, 2012); Committee on the Impact of Biotechnology on Farm-Level Economics and Sustainability and National Research Council, The Impact of Genetically Engineered Crops.
26. National Research Council, The Impact of Genetically Engineered Crops.
27. Ibid.
28. K. R. Kranthi, “10 Years of Bt in India: Biotech Seeds Save Indian Market,” Cotton 24/7, May 1, 2011, http://cotton247.com/news/?storyid=2160 (accessed February 16, 2012).
29. Shahzad Kouser and Martin Qaim, “Bt Cotton Now Helps to Avoid Several Million Cases of Pesticide Poisoning in India Every Year,” Ecological Economics 70, no. 11 (September 2011): 2105–13.
30. Robert Paarlberg, Starved for Science: How Biotechnology Is Being Kept Out of Africa(Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2009).
31. Ibid.
32. “Eat This or Die: The Poison Politics of Food Aid,” Greenpeace International, September 30, 2002, www.greenpeace.org/international/en (accessed February 16, 2012).
33. Henri Cauvin, “Between Famine and Politics, Zambians Starve,” New York Times, August 30, 2002.
34. “Zambia Allows GM Aid for Refugees,” BBC News, September 8, 2002.
35. Roger Bate, “Political Food Folly: Putting Food on the Negotiating Table,” National Review Online, August 6, 2004, www.nationalreview.com (accessed February 16, 2012).
36. “Austrian Government Retracts Conclusions Reported in a Long Term Reproduction Study on GM Corn Lines MON810 and NK603,” Food Standards, April 2010. http://www.foodstandards.gov.au (accessed February 16, 2012).
37. Committee on Identifying and Assessing Unintended Effects of Genetically Engineered Foods on Human Health, National Research Council, Safety of Genetically Engineered Foods: Approaches to Assessing Unintended Health Effects (Washington DC: National Academies Press, 2004).
38. Suzie Key, Julian Ma, and M. W. Drake. “Genetically Modified Plants and Human Health,” Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine 101, no. 6 (2008): 290–98.
39. Committee on the Impact of Biotechnology on Farm-Level Economics and Sustainability, and National Research Council, Impact of Genetically Engineered Crops.
40. “Spain Confirms BT Corn Has No Adverse Effects on the Environment,” Crop Biotech Update, July 22, 2011.
41. Anthony Shelton and Mark Sears, “The Monarch Butterfly Controversy: Scientific Interpretations of a Phenomenon,” The Plant Journal 27, no. 6 (2001): 483–88.
42. Peggy Lemaux, “Genetically Engineered Plants and Foods: A Scientist’s Analysis of the Issues,” Annual Review of Plant Biology 59 (2008): 771–812.
43. European Commission, A Decade of EU-Funded GMO Research (Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2010). ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/fp7/kbbe/docs/a-decade-of-eu-funded-gmo-research_en.pdf (accessed March 7, 2012).
44. Sybille Hamaide, “French Court Annuls Ban on Growing Monsanto GMO Maize,” Reuters, November 28, 2011.
45. Morten Gylling, “The Danish Coexistence Regulation and the Danish Farmers Attitude Towards GMO,” Institute of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen, www.gmls.eu/beitraege/GMLS2_Gylling.pdf (accessed March 2, 2012).
46. Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (New York: Viking Press, 2005).
nineteen the decoupler
1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Annual Energy Outlook 2011: With Projections to 2035,” April 2011; International Energy Agency, “Statistics & Balances,” www.iea.org/stats/index.asp (accessed March 7, 2012).
2. International Energy Agency, “Statistics & Balances.”
3. Steven Davis and Ken Caldeira, “Consumption-Based Accounting of CO2 Emissions,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107, no. 12 (2010): 5687–92.
4. Pacific Institute, “Fact Sheet on Water Use in the United States,” www.pacinst. org (accessed February 22, 2012).
5. The World Bank, “Indicators,” http://data.worldbank.org/indicator (accessed March 7, 2012).
6. Water Footprint Network, “WaterStat,” www.waterfootprint.org/?page=files/WaterStat (accessed March 7, 2012).
7. Taras Berezowsky, “US Steelmaking Only a Small Part of Global Steel CO2 Emissions—Part One,” Metal Miner, March 28, 2011, http://agmetalminer.com (accessed February 16, 2012).
8. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, State of the World’s Forests 2011 (Rome: FAO, 2011).
9. Ibid.
10. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “FAOSTAT,” faostat.fao.org/ (accessed January 23, 2012).
11. S. J. Smith, J. Aardenne, Z. Klimont, R. J. Andres, and A. Volke, et al., “Anthropogenic Sulfur Dioxide Emissions: 1850–2005,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, June 30, 2010.
12. Gary Fields, Distribution and Development: A New Look at the Developing World (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2002).
twenty of mouths and minds
1. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Diabetes: Successes and Opportunities for Population-Based Prevention and Control,” CDC, August 1, 2011, www.cdc.gov (accessed February 16, 2012).
2. Timothy Dall, Yiduo Zhang, Yaozhu Chen, William Quick, Wenya Yang, and Jeanene Fogli, “The Economic Burden of Diabetes,” Health Affairs 29 (2010): 2297– 303.
3. Charles Jones, “Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas,” American Economic Review 92, no. 1 (2002): 220–39 www.stanford.edu/~chadj/papers.html
4. Alex Tabarrok, “TED Talk,” February 2009, www.ted.com/talks/alex_tabarrok_foresees_economic_growth.html.
5. Thomas Jefferson, The Writings of Thomas Jefferson, ed. Andrew Lipscomb and Albert Bergh (Whitefish, MT: Kessinger, 2006).
6. Ronald Bailey, “Post Scarcity Prophet,” Reason.com, December 1, 2001, http://reason.com (accessed February 16, 2012).
7. “No Sex Please, We’re Japanese: Country Heads for Extinction as Survey Reveals Young People Shunning Marriage,” Mail Online, November 28, 2011.
8. “Demographic Change and Work in Europe,” European Working Conditions Observatory, August 20, 2010.
9. Haunxin, Zhao. “Working-Age Population Set to Decline,” China Daily, September 1, 2006.
10. David Pierson, “China’s One-Child Policy Causing Working-Age Population to Shrink,” Los Angeles Times, July 12, 2009.
11. Michael Kremer, “Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 108, no. 3 (1993): 681–716.
12. Jonah Lehrer, “A Physicist Solves the City,” New York Times, December 17, 2010.
13. Luis Bettencourt, Jose Lobo, Dirk Helbing, Christian Kuhnert, and Geoffrey West, “Growth, Innovation, Scaling, and the Pace of Life in Cities,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA 104, no. 17 (April 24, 2007): 7301–06.
14. Wei Pan, Gourah Ghoshal, Sandy Pentland, and Manuel Cebrian, “Urban Economy Scaling: Linking Geography, Population and Social Interactions,” web. media.mit.edu/~cebrian/urbanlink.pdf (accessed February 27, 2012).
15. William McGurn, “And Baby Makes Seven Billion,” Wall Street Journal, October 24, 2011.
coda
1. Kaare Christensen et al., “Ageing Populations: The Challenges Ahead,” Lancet 374 (October 2009): 1196–208.