■ Contents

LIST OF FIGURES

LIST OF TABLES

LIST OF BOXES

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

1 Introduction: Scenario planning—The Oxford Approach

Introduction

Introducing the OSPA: seven key premises

Distinctive features of the OSPA

Methodological choices in the OSPA

Organization of this book

2 The OSPA as social process

Introduction

Strategic situations are always socially constructed

Time matters

Sensemaking in the safe space: plausibility, memorability, and consistency

Social benefits of scenario planning

Ethics and governance in scenario planning

Conclusion

3 Scenario planning as a knowledge acquisition and generation process

Introduction

What is knowledge?

Knowledge of the future?

Engaging the unknown and the uncertain: scenario planning as research methodology in the OSPA

Eliciting and accessing knowledge

The roles of modeling in scenario planning

The roles of research in scenario planning

Conclusion

4 Working with scenario planning learners

Introduction

Starting with learners, purposes, and intended uses

Working with the scenario planning learner

Helping to redirect the learner’s attention

Matters of technique to engage learners effectively

Conclusion: engaging the learner’s mind actively

5 How scenario planning is done: The OSPA in action

Introduction

Methodology

Designing a scenario planning intervention: choices and key parameters

Conclusion: reframing services, not products

6 Learning and teaching: Scenario planning in executive development

Introduction

Designing learning for scenario planning

Pedagogy and action learning

Scenario planning and reflective practice

Executive learning as designed inquiry and engaged scholarship

Conclusion

7 Conclusion: An incomplete guide to scenario planning and the beginning of a conversation

Introduction

Distinctive characteristics of the OSPA

Delving deeper: ontological and epistemological foundations of the OSPA

Unresolved issues

New directions for research

An incomplete guide to the future of scenario planning, and a better place to start

appendix a wärtsilä case study

appendix b shell 2001 global scenarios case study

appendix c united european gastroenterology case study

appendix d aids in africa case study

appendix e the european patent office case study

appendix f risk-world scenarios case study

GLOSSARY

REFERENCES

SUBJECT INDEX

NAME INDEX