1. Hao Juikratoke quoted in Bryan Walsh, “A Sickness Spreads,” Time (Asia) (11 October 2004).
2. Albert Camus, The Plague, translated by Stuart Gilbert (New York: A. A. Knopf, 1948), p. 38.
3. My account is a composite of “Human Transmission Possible,” and “Fear Grips Village in Kamphaeng Phet,” Nation (Bangkok) (29 September 2004); ThailandChats.com, 3 October 2004; Noppawan Bunluesilp, “Fear Stalks Village of Thai Bird Flu Victim,” Reuters (4 October 2004); Connie Levett, “Tens of Millions of Fowl Have Been Slaughtered in the Effort to Eradicate the Disease,” Age (4 October 2004);Walsh, “Sickness Spreads” and Debora MacKenzie, “Bird Flu Transmitted Between Humans in Thailand,” New Scientist (28 September 2004). In one account the village name is given as Ban Mu 19.
4. Kumnuan Ungchusak et al., “Probable Person-to-Person Transmission of Avian Influenza A (H5N1),” New England Journal of Medicine 352, no. 4 (27 January 2005): p. 336.
5. Ibid., pp. 339–40.
6. Pete Davies, The Devil’s Flu (New York: Henry Holt, 2000), p. 75.
7. The pioneering article is R. Slemons et al., “Type A Influenza Viruses Isolated from Wild Free-Flying Ducks in California,” Avian Diseases 18 (1974): pp. 119–24.
8. Cited in Edwin Kilbourne, Influenza (New York: Plenum Medical Book, 1987), p. 243.
9. Toshihiro Ito and Yoshihiro Kawaoka, “Avian Influenza,” in Textbook of Influenza, edited by Karl Nicholson, Robert Webster, and Alan Hay (Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press, 1998), pp. 126 and 129.
10. Alan Hampson, “Influenza Virus Antigens and ‘Antigenic Drift,’ ” in Influenza, edited by C. Potter (Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2003), p. 49.
11. J. Taubenberger and A. Reid, “Archaevirology: Characterization of the 1918 ‘Spanish’ Influenza Pandemic Virus,” in Emerging Pathogens, edited by Charles Greenblatt and Mark Spigelman (Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press, 2003), p. 189.
12. Steven Frank, Immunology and Evolution of Infectious Disease (Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press, 2002), p. 205.
13. John Holland, “Replication Error, Quasispecies Populations, and Extreme Evolution Rates of RNA Viruses,” in Emerging Viruses, edited by Stephen Morse (New York: Oxford Univ. Press, 1993), p. 213.
14. Robert Webster and William Bean Jr., “Evolution and Ecology of Influenza Viruses: Interspecies Transmission,” in Nicholson, Webster and Hay, Textbook, p. 117.
15. Holland, “Replication Error,” pp. 207–9.
16. G. Air, A. Gibbs, W. Laver, and R. Webster, “Evolutionary Changes in Influenza B Are Not Primarily Governed by Antibody Selection,” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 87, no. 10 (1990): pp. 3884–88.
17. Dorothy Crawford, The Invisible Enemy: A Natural History of Viruses (Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press, 2000), p. 92.
18. Taubenberger and Reid, “Archaevirology,” p. 196.
19. Christopher Scholtissek, Virginia Hinshaw, and Christopher Olsen, “Influenza in Pigs and Their Role as the Intermediate Host,” in Nicholson, Webster, and Hay, Textbook, p. 143.
20. Brian Murphy, “Factors Restraining Emergence of New Influenza Viruses,” in Morse, Emerging Viruses, p. 240.
21. Mark Gibbs, John Armstrong, and Adrian Gibbs, “Recombination in the Hemagglutinin Gene of the 1918 ‘Spanish Flu,’ ” Science 293 (7 September 2001): pp. 1842–45.
22. Ervin Fodor and George Brownlee, “Influenza Virus Replication,” in Potter, Influenza, p. 18.
23. J. Oxford et al., “Antiviral Activity of Oseltamivir Carbosylate Against a Human Isolate of the Current H5N1 Chicken Strain,” poster 3839, InterScience Conference on Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy, Washington, DC, 31 August 2004.
24. Jocelyn Kaiser, “Facing Down Pandemic Flu, the World’s Defenses Are Weak,” Science 306 (15 October 2004): p. 394.
25. Richard Webby and Robert Webster, “Are We Ready for Pandemic Influenzas?” in Learning from SARS: preparing for the next disease outbreak, edited by Stacey Knobler et al. (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2004), p. 208.
26. Karl Nicholson, “Human Influenza,” in Nicholson, Webster, and Hay, Textbook, p. 221.
27. See historical discussion in Jonathan Nguyen-Van-Tam, “Epidemiology of Influenza,” in Nicholson, Webster, and Hay, Textbook, pp. 181–84.
28. T. Reichert et al., “Influenza and the Winter Increase in Mortality in the United States, 1959–1999,” American Journal of Epidemiology 160, no. 5 (1 September 2004): pp. 492–502.
29. Lower figure from DHHS, Draft Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response Plan, August 2004, p. 3; and higher from James Stevens et al., “Structure of the Uncleaved Human H1 Hemagglutinin from the Extinct 1918 Influenza Virus,” Science 303 (19 March 2004): p. 1866.
30. B. Schoub, J. McAnerney, and T. Besselaar, “Regional Perspectives on Influenza Surveillance in Africa,” Vaccine 20, Suppl. 2 (15 May 2002): p. S46.
31. Alan Hampson, “Epidemiological Data on Influenza in Asian Countries,” Vaccine 17, Suppl. 1 (30 July 1999): pp. S19–S23.
32. Schoub, McAnerney, and Besselaar, “Regional Perspectives,” p. S46.
33. Leon Simonsen, “The Global Impact of Influenza on Morbidity and Mortality,” Vaccine, 17, Suppl. 1 (30 July 1999): pp. S3–S10; F. Karaivanova, “Viral Respiratory Infections and Their Role as a Public Health Problem in Tropical Countries (Review),” African Journal of Medicine and Medical Science 24, no. 1 (1995): pp. 1–7; and C. Wong et al., “Influenza-Associated Mortality in Hong Kong,” Clinical Infectious Diseases 39, no. 11 (1 December 2004): p. 1611.
34. Shoub, McAnerney, and Besselaar, “Regional Perspectives,” S45–46; and “Influenza Outbreak in the District of Bosobolo, DRC, Nov.–Dec. 2002,” Weekly Epidemiological Record 13 (28 March 2003): pp. 94–96.
35. WHO, Avian Influenza and Human Health: Report by Secretariat, Geneva (8 April 2004): p. 1.
36. For an overview of origin debate, see John Barry, “The Site of Origin of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic and its Public Health Implications,” Journal of Translational Medicine 2, no. 3 (20 January 2004): pp. 1–4.
37. Niall Johnson and Juergen Mueller, “Updating the Accounts: Global Mortality of the 1918–1920 ‘Spanish’ Influenza Pandemic,” Bulletin of the History of Medicine 76 (2002): tables 1–5; and Edwin Oakes Jordan, Epidemic Influenza (Chicago: American Medical Association, 1927).
38. Ibid. pp. 108 and 115; and K. Davis, The Population of India and Pakistan (Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press, 1951), p. 37 (estimate of 20 million dead).
39. I. Mills, “The 1918–19 Influenza Pandemic—The Indian Experience,” Indian Economic and Social History Review 23, no. 1 (1986): pp. 1–40.
40. Ibid., p. 35.
41. Mridula Ramanna, “Coping with the Influenza Pandemic: The Bombay Experience,” in The Spanish Influenza Pandemic of 1918–19: New Perspectives, edited by Howard Phillips and David Killingray (London: Routledge, 2003), p. 95.
42. Quoted in Peter Harnetty, “The Famine That Never Was: Christian Missionaries in India, 1918–1919,” Historian (Spring 2001): p. 2.
43. Ramanna, “Bombay Experience,” p. 97.
44. Mills, “Indian Experience,” pp. 34–35.
45. Johnson and Mueller, “Updating the Accounts,” p. 106 (research of Svenn-Erik Mamelund).
46. Amir Afkhami, “Compromised Constitutions: The Iranian Experience with the 1918 Influenza Pandemic,” Bulletin of the History of Medicine 77 (2003): pp. 371–72.
47. Ibid., pp. 386–91.
48. Kevin McCracken and Peter Curson, “Flu Downunder,” in Phillips and Killingray, Spanish Influenza, pp. 130–31.
49. Memo, 15 March 1976, quoted in Richard Neustadt and Harvey Fineberg, The EpidemicThat NeverWas (New York: Vintage Books, 1982), p. 207.
50. John Barry, The Great Influenza (New York: Viking, 2004), p. 5.
51. J. Oxford et al., “World War I May Have Allowed the Emergence of ‘Spanish’ Influenza,” Lancet Infectious Diseases 2, no. 2 (February 2002): pp. 11–14.
52. William Henry Welch, quoted in Alfred Crosby, America’s Forgotten Pandemic: The Influenza of 1918, new ed. (Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press, 2003), p. 11.
53. Jeffrey Taubenberger et al., “Integrating Historical, Clinical and Molecular Genetic Data in Order to Explain the Origin and Virulence of the 1918 Spanish Influenza Virus,” Phil. Trans. R. Soc. London B 356 (2001): p. 1831.
54. National Academy of Sciences, “Thomas Francis Jr.,” Biographical Memoirs 44 (Washington, DC: 1974), pp. 71–73.
55. Edwin Kilbourne et al., “The Total Influenza Vaccine Failure of 1947 Revisited,” PNAS 99, no. 16 (6 August 2002): pp. 10748–52.
56. Gerald Pyle, The Diffusion of Influenza: Patterns and Paradigms (Totowa, NJ: Rowman & Littlefield, 1986), p. 141.
57. J. Donald Millar and June Osborne, “Precursors of the Scientific Decision-Making Process Leading to the 1976 National Immunization Campaign,” in Influenza in America, 1918–1976, edited by Osborne (New York: Prodist, 1977), pp. 22–23.
58. Global mortality for 1957 pandemic from testimony of Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, to the House Committee on Government Reform, 12 February 2004.
59. Miller and Osborne, “Precursors,” pp. 21–23.
60. Ibid.; and 1968 global estimate from Fauci testimony.
61. Pyle, Diffusion, p. 141.
62. M. Kitler, P. Gavinio, and D. Lavanchy, “Influenza and the Work of the World Health Organization,” Vaccine 20, Suppl. 2 (15 May 2002): p. 9, www.sciencedirect.com.
63. Miller and Osborne, “Precursors,” pp. 19–22.
64. See the recollections by famed Australian influenza researcher Graeme Laver, “Influenza Virus Surface Glycoproteins, Haemagglutinin and Neuraminidase: Personal Account,” in Potter, Influenza, pp. 31–47.
65. Neustadt and Fineberg, Never Was, pp. 17–22.
66. Ibid., p. 35.
67. Ibid., pp. 64 and 81.
68. Ibid., pp. 67 and 95.
69. Kilbourne, Influenza, p. 331.
70. Ibid., p. xx.
71. Ibid., pp. 225–26.
72. Jaap Goudsmit, Viral Fitness: The Next SARS and West Nile in the Making (Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press), p. 23.
73. Edward Stokes, Hong Kong’s Wild Places (Hong Kong: Oxford Univ. Press, 1995), pp. 175–76.
74. Davies, Devil’s Flu, p. 2.
75. D. Alexander, “A Review of Avian Influenza in Different Bird Species,” Veterinary Microbiology 74 (2000): pp. 3–13.
76. K. Shortridge, J. Peiris, and Y. Guan, “The Next Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from Hong Kong,” Journal of Applied Microbiology 94, Symposium Supplement (2003): p. 71S.
77. Rene Sancken et al., “The Next Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from Hong Kong, 1997,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 5, no. 2 (March–April 1999): p. 198.
78. Davies, Devil’s Flu, pp. 8–12. Davies’s vivid account, based on wide-ranging interviews and travel to Hong Kong, is preferred to Gina Kolata’s error-ridden narrative, Flu (New York: Farrar, Straus, Ginoax 1999). Kolata, a New York Times science reporter who relies unduly on the CDC version of events, gets the date of the little boy’s death wrong and, more significantly, fails to acknowledge that the Dutch were first to make the type identification.
79. Robert Webster and Alan Hay, “The H5N1 Influenza Outbreak in Hong Kong: A Test of Pandemic Preparedness,” in Nicholson, Webster, and Hay, Textbook, p. 561.
80. Davies, Devil’s Flu, p. 19; Jocelyn Kaiser, “1918 Flu Experiments Spark Concerns About Biosafety,” Science 306 (22 October 2004): p. 591; and Agriculture Research Service, USDA, “Containing the Hong Kong Poultry Flu Outbreak,” (December 1998), see www.ars.usda.gov.
81. Robin Ajello and Catherine Shepherd, “The Flu Fighters” (1998), Asiaweek.com.
82. Gretchen Reynolds, “The Flu Hunters,” New York Times Magazine, 7 November 2004.
83. It is important to note, however, that researchers never found any direct evidence of the route of transmission: whether by contact with bird feces or direct inhalation of aerosolized virus. See Anthony Mounts et al., “Case-Control Study of Risk Factors of Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Disease, Hong Kong, 1997,” Journal of Infectious Diseases 180 (1999): pp. 507–8.
84. Ajello and Shepherd, “Flu Fighters,” p. 2.
85. Shortridge, Peiris, and Guan, “Next Influenza Pandemic,” p. 72S.
86. Quoted in Goudsmit, Viral Fitness, p. 148.
87. Richard Krause, “Foreword,” in Morse, Emerging Viruses, p. vii.
88. William McNeill, “Control and Catastrophe in Human Affairs,” Daedalus 118, no. 1 (1989): pp. 1–12.
89. Ibid.
90. William McNeill, “Patterns of Disease Emergence in History,” in Morse, Emerging Viruses, p. 33.
91. Justin Brashares et al. “Bushmeat Hunting, Wildlife Declines, and Fish Supply in West Africa,” Science 306 (12 November 2004): pp. 1180–82.
92. “Bushmeat and the Origin of HIV/AIDS,” conference abstract, Environmental and Energy Study Institute, Washington, DC, February 2002; and BBC news file, “AIDS Warning over Bushmeat Trade,” 26 October 2004.
93. Yanzhong Huang, “The SARS Epidemic and its Aftermath in China: A Political Perspective,” in Stacey Knobler, Learning from SARS, p. 127.
94. Sidney Morning Herald, 9 April 2003.
95. National Academy of Sciences, Growing Populations, Changing Landscapes: Studies from India, China, and the United States (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 2001), pp. 211, 212, 214, and 220.
96. Ibid.
97. WHO press release, “Increased Surveillance for Influenza Should Be Continued,” 28 January 1998.
98. Guo Yuanji, “Influenza Activity in China: 1998–1999,” Vaccine 20, Suppl. 2 (15 May 2002): pp. 28–35.
99. K. Li et al., “Characterization of H9 Subtype Influenza Viruses from the Ducks of Southern China: a Candidate for the Next Influenza Pandemic in Humans?” Journal of Virology 77, no. 12 (June 2003): pp. 6988–89.
100. Simon Levin, “Population Biology and the Evolution of Influenza A,” (working paper, n.d.), p. 23.
101. Li, “H9 Subtypes,” pp. 6989 and 6992–93.
102. New Scientist interview quoted on eces.org/articles/00760.php.
103. K. Shortridge, “Next Influenza Pandemic,” pp. 73–74.
104. Li, “H9 Subtypes,” p. 6993.
105. K. Choi et al., “Continuing Evolution of H9N2 Influenza Viruses in Southeastern China,” Journal of Virology 78, no. 16 (August 2004): pp. 8609–14.
106. Yi Guan et al., “Emergence of Multiple Genotypes of H5N1 Avian Influenza Viruses in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,” PNAS 99, no. 13 (25 June 2002): p. 8950–54.
107. Emma Young, “Hong Kong Chicken Flu Slaughter ‘Failed,’ ” New Scientist, 19 April 2002.
108. Katharine Sturm-Ramirez et al., “Reemerging H5N1 Influenza Viruses in Hong Kong in 2002 Are Highly Pathogenic to Ducks,” Journal of Virology 78, no. 9 (May 2004): p. 4899.
109. Ibid., pp. 4892–4900.
110. “Update on the Avian Influenza Situation #26,” FAOAIDE News (20 December 2004): p. 2.
111. Shortridge, Peiris, and Guan, “Next Influenza Pandemic,” p. 77S.
112. J. Peiris et al., “Re-emergence of Fatal Human Influenza A Subtype H5N1 Diseases,” Lancet 363 (21 February 2004): pp. 617–19.
113. “An Avian Flu Jumps to People,” Science 299 (7 March 2003): p. 1504.
114. Robin Weiss and Angela McLean, “What Have We Learnt from SARS?” Phil.Trans. R. Soc. Lond. 359 B (2004): p. 1139.
115. WHO, “SARS: Chronology of a Serial Killer,” Update 95; and Tabitha Powledge, “Genetic Analysis of Bird Flu,” Scientist, 27 February 2003.
116. Huang in Knobler, Learning from SARS, p. 118.
117. J. Mackenzie et al., “The WHO Response to SARS and Preparations for the Future,” in Knobler, Learning from SARS, p. 43; and Karen Monaghan, “SARS: Down But Still a Threat,” in Knobler, Learning from SARS, p. 249 (CDC chart).
118. I. Yu and J. Sung, “The Epidemiology of the Outbreak of SARS in Hong Kong—What We Do Know and What We Don’t,” Epidemiol. Infect. 132 (2004): pp. 784: Hong Kong Department of Health, “Outbreak of SARS at Amoy Gardens, Kowloon Bay, Hong Kong: Main Findings of the Investigation,” 17 April 2003.
119. “Summary and Assessment,” in Knobler, Learning from SARS, p. 4.
120. Huang in Knobler, Learning from SARS, pp. 123–25.
121. Ibid.; also Monaghan in Knobler, Learning from SARS, p. 255.
122. Y. Guan et al., “Isolation and Characterization of Viruses Related to the SARS Coronavirus from Animals in Southern China,” in Knobler, Learning from SARS, pp. 157–65.
123. Diana Bell, Scott Roberton, and Paul Hunter, “Animal Origins of SARS Coronavirus: Possible Links with the International Trade in Small Carnivores,” Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. 359 B (2004): pp. 1107 and 1112.
124. Goudsmit, Viral Fitness, p. 142.
125. C. Naylor, Cyril Chantler, and Sian Griffiths, “Learning from SARS in Hong Kong and Toronto,” JAMA 291, no. 20 (26 May 2004): pp. 2483–84. Also Abu Abdullah et al., “Lessons from the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Outbreak in Hong Kong,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 9, no. 9 (September 2003): p. 2 (on Chinese health workers).
126. Robert Webster, “Wet Markets—A Continuing Source of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Influenza?” Lancet 363 (17 January 2004): p. 236.
127. Roy Anderson et al., “Epidemiology, Transmission Dynamics and Control of SARS: The 2002–2003 Epidemic,” Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond, 359 B (2004): p. 1104.
128. Goudsmit, Viral Fitness, p. 148.
129. J. Peiris and Y. Guan, “Confronting SARS: A View from Hong Kong,” Phil.Trans. R. Soc. Lond, 359 B (2004): p. 1077.
130. Anderson, “Transmission Dynamics,” p. 1096.
131. Weiss and McLean, “What Have We Learnt?” p. 1139.
132. Quoted in Bernice Wuethrich, “Chasing the Fickle Swine Flu,” Science 299 (7 March 2003): p. 1502.
133. For the evidence that implicates Kansas, see Barry, “The Site of Origin.”
134. Christopher Delgado, Mark Rosegrant, and Nikolas Wada, “Meating and Milking Global Demand: Stakes for Small-Scale Farmers in Developing Countries,” in The Livestock Revolution: A Pathway from Poverty? edited by A. Brown (Canberra ATSE Crawford Fund, 2003), p. 17, tables 4–5; and FAO Statistics Database.
135. Ibid., p. 14.
136. UNEP/GEF, “Protecting the Environment from the Impact of the Growing Industrialization of Livestock Production in East Asia,” working paper, Phuket (Thailand) 2003, p. 1.
137. Donald Stull and Michael Broadway, Slaughterhouse Blues: The Meat and Poultry Industry in North America (Belmont, CA: Thompson/Wadsworth, 2004), p. 41.
138. James Rhodes, “The Industrialization of Hog Production,” Review of Agricultural Economics 17 (1995): pp. 107–18.
139. William Boyd and Michael Watts, “Agro-industrial Just-in-Time: The Chicken Industry and Postwar American Capitalism,” in Globalising Food: Agrarian Questions and Global Restructuring, edited by Michael Goodman and Michael Watts (London: Routledge, 1997), p. 209.
140. J. van Middelkoop, “High Density Broiler Production—The European Way,” Government of Alberta Poultry Website, www.agric.gov.ab.ca./livestock/poultry.
141. Ron Fouchier et al., “Avian Influenza A Virus (H7N7) Associated with Human Conjunctivitis and a Fatal Case of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome,” PNAS 101, no. 5 (3 February 2004): p. 1360.
142. Marion Koopmans et al., “Transmission of H7N7 Avian Influenza A Virus to Human Beings during a Large Outbreak in Commercial Poultry Farms in the Netherlands,” Lancet 363 (21 February 2004): p. 587.
143. Ibid., pp. 587–88.
144. Ibid., pp. 588–90;Adam Meijer et al., “Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus A (H7N7) Infection of Humans and Human-to-Human Transmission during Avian Influenza Outbreak in the Netherlands,” in Options for the Control of Influenza V, edited by Y. Kawaoka (Amsterdam, Elsevier, 2004), pp. 65–68; Martin Enserink, “Bird Flu Infected 1000,” Science 306 (22 October 2004): p. 590; and Fox News, “Dutch Investigation Shows Bird Flu Outbreak Worsens in the Netherlands,” 18 January 2005 (2000 figure).
145. Enserink, “Bird Flu,” p. 590.
146. Fouchier, “Avian Influenza A,” p. 1360.
147. Koopmans, “Transmission of H7N7,” p. 593.
148. Wuethrich, “Fickle Swine Flu,” pp. 1502–5; and Christopher Olsen, Gabriele Landolt, and Alexander Karasin, “The Emergence of Novel Influenza Viruses among Pigs in North America due to Interspecies Transmission and Reassortment,” in Kawaoka, “Options,” pp. 196–98.
149. Rodger Ott quoted in Wuethrich, “Fickle Swine Flu,” p. 1503.
150. Wuethrich, “Fickle Swine Flu,” p. 1503.
151. P. Woolcock, D. Suarez, and D. Kuney, “Low-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus (H6N2) in Chickens in California, 2000–02,” Avian Diseases 47, Suppl. 3 (2003): pp. 872–81.
152. “Summary and Assessment,” in The Threat of Pandemic Influenza: Are We Ready?, edited by Knobler et al. (Washington D.C.: Institute of Medicine 2005), pp. 21–23.
153. Ibid.
154. Carol Cardona, “Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Outbreaks in Commercial Poultry in California,” in Knobler, Threat, p. 195.
155. For a review of the debate, see D. Alexander, “Should We Change the Definition of Avian Influenza for Eradication Purposes?” Avian Diseases 47, Suppl. 3 (2003): pp. 976–81.
156. Jim Monke, “Avian Influenza: Multiple Strains Cause Different Effects Worldwide,” Congressional Research Service, Report for Congress (14 May 2004), pp. 3–5, and USDA, see www.aphis.usda.gov.
157. Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, 8 November 2004.
158. Martin Hirst et al., “Novel Avian Influenza H7N3 Strain Outbreak, British Columbia,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 10, no. 12 (December 2004).
159. S. Tweed et al., “Human Illness from Avian Influenza H7N3, British Columbia,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 10, no. 12 (December 2004): pp. 1–2 (CDC Website edition).
160. Ibid., p. 4.
161. CBC News, “Federal Agency Accused of Mishandling Avian Flu in B.C.,” 19 January 2005.
162. Wuethrich, “Fickle Swine Flu,” p. 1505.
163. Jasper Becker, “Bird Flu Hits China,” Independent (London), 30 January 2004.
164. A. Fumihito et al., “One Subspecies of the Red Junglefowl (Gallus gallus gallus) Suffices as the Matriarchic Ancestor of all Domestic Breeds,” PNAS 91 (20 December 1994): pp. 12505–9.
165. Christopher Delgado, Clare Narrod, and Marites Tiongco, “Policy, Technical, and Environmental Determinants and Implications of the Scaling-Up of Livestock Production in Four Fast-Growing Developing Countries: A Synthesis,” (IFFPRI/FAO working paper, 2003), section 2.2, “Growth and Concentration in Thailand.”
166. See www.cpthailand.com.
167. Isabelle Delforge, “The Flu That Made Agribusiness Stronger,” originally published in Bangkok Post, posted at www.focusweb.org.
168. Felicity Lawrence, “Fowl Play,” Guardian, 8 July 2002.
169. William Roenick, “World Poultry Consumption,” Poultry Science 78 (1999): pp. 722–28.
170. Erick Stowers, “Chinagate Scandal,” Pressing Times, Spring 2002.
171. Dan Moldea and David Corn, “Influence Peddling, Bush Style,” Nation (New York), 23 October 2000.
172. Pasuk Phongpaichit, Corruption, Governance, and Globalisation: Lessons from the New Thailand, Corner House Briefing #29 (London 2003), p. 18.
173. Bruce Einhorn, “China: New Plague, Same Coverup?” BusinessWeek Online (10 February 2004)
174. “Bird Flu Found in Smuggled Duck,” Taipei Times, 1 January 2004.
175. Debora MacKenzie, “Bird Flu Outbreak Started a Year Ago,” New Scientist, 28 January 2004.
176. Robin McKie et al., ‘Warning as Bird Flu Crossover Danger Escalates,” Observer, 12 December 2004.
177. Senator Nirun Phitakwatchara, quoted in “Thailand and Cambodia Admit Bird Flu,” New Scientist, 23 January 2004.
178. Bangkok Post (30 January, 5–6 February, and 25 March), quoted in Isabelle Delforge, “Thailand: The World’s Kitchen,” Le Monde diplomatique (English edition), July 2004.
179. Anton Rychener, the FAO representative in Hanoi, told the press in February 2004 that Vietnamese poultry had been testing positive for avian flu “for months.” See Keith Bradsher, “Bird Flu Is Back,” New York Times, 30 August 2004.
180. Justin McCurry, “Bird Flu Suicides in Japan,” Guardian, 9 March 2004.
181. Quoted in Bangkok Post, 7 February 2004.
182. David Cyranoski, “Vaccine Sought as Bird Flu Infects Humans,” Nature 422 (6 March 2003).
183. Richard Ehrlich, “Thailand Denies Bird Flu Cover-Up” (26 January 2004), www.scoop.co.nz.
184. “Cover-up Began Last Year,” Nation (Bangkok), 23 January 2004; and Manager (2 February 2004), cited in Chanida Chanyapate and Isabelle Delforge, “The Politics of Bird Flu in Thailand” (19 April 2004), www.focusweb.org.
185. “Thai PM Admits Mistakes Over Bird Flu,” Guardian Unlimited, 28 January 2004.
186. Sirima Manapornsamrat, quoted in “Thailand’s Poultry Industry Facing Huge Losses from Bird Flu Crisis” (25 January 2004), www.eubusiness.com.
187. “Sukhothai Death: Victims of the Information Gap,” Nation (Bangkok), 2 February 2004.
188. Interviewed by Delforge, “Thailand: The World’s Kitchen.”
189. Ibid.
190. “Chicken Exports: Watana Threatens Retaliation,” Nation (Bangkok), 4 February 2004.
191. Chanyapate and Delforge, “Politics,”
192. FAO press release, Bangkok, 28 January 2004.
193. Slingenbergh et al., “Ecological Sources of Zoonotic Diseases,” Rev. Sci.Tech. Off. Epiz. 23, no. 2 (2004): p. 476.
194. Delforge, “The Flu,” and “Hay Tay Wages Grueling War on Avian Flu,” Vietnam News, 4 February 2004.
195. John Aglionby, “The Politics of Poultry,” Guardian, 29 January 2004.
196. Leu Siew Ting, “China: Criticism Grows Over Media Coverage,” South China Morning Post, 11 February 2004.
197. Chanyapate and Delforge, “Politics,” “Focus on Foreign Wildfowl,” Nation (Bangkok), 26 January 2004; and “Pigeons to Be Slaughtered,” Nation (Bangkok), 30 January 2004.
198. Secretariat, WHO, “Avian Influenza and Human Health,” Geneva (8 April 2004); and Keith Bradsher and Lawrence Altman, “A War and a Mystery: Confronting Avian Flu,” New York Times, 12 October 2004.
199. Associated Press, 1 February 2004.
200. “China: Towards ‘Xiaokang,’ but Still Living Dangerously,” Lancet 363 (7 February 2004): p. 409.
201. Webster, “Wet Markets,” pp. 234–36.
202. Y. Guan et al., “H5N1 influenza: A Protean Pandemic Threat,” PNAS 101, no. 20 (25 May 2004): pp. 8156–57.
203. Ibid.
204. Alison Abbott and Helen Pearson, “Fear of Human Pandemic Grows as Bird Flu Sweeps through Asia,” Nature 427 (5 February 2004): pp. 472–73.
205. Joint statement by FAO and OIE, 23 March 2004.
206. Quoted in Keith Bradsher and Lawrence Altman, “UN Health Official Foresees Tens of Millions Dying in a Global Flu,” New York Times, 29 November 2004.
207. Reuters, “US Chicken Exports Rise,” 28 January 2004; notes at www.thaistocks.com; “Bird-flu Outbreaks Elsewhere Present Opportunities to Taiwan Exporters,” 23 February 2004, www.taiwanheadlines.gov.tw; and Delforge, “The World’s Kitchen.”
208. K. Li et al., “Genesis of a Highly Pathogenic and Potentially Pandemic H5N1 Influenza Virus in Eastern Asia,” Nature 430 (8 July 2004): pp. 209–12.
209. Who, “Laboratory Study of H5N1 in Domestic Ducks,” WHO press release, October 2004; and H. Chen et al., “The Evolution of H5N1 Influenza Viruses in Ducks in Southern China,” PNAS 101, no. 28 (13 July 2004): p. 10452.
210. Li, “Genesis,” pp. 209–12.
211. Jeffery Taubenberger, Ann Reid, and Thomas Fanning, “Capturing a Killer Flu Virus,” Scientific American (January 2005): p. 70.
212. Reynolds, “Flu Hunter.”
213. Report by the Secretariat, WHO, Avian Influenza and Human Health, Geneva (8 April 2004), p. 3.
214. David Cyranoski, “Bird Flu Data Languish in Chinese Journals,” Nature 430 (26 August 2004): p. 955.
215. Donald McNeil, “Experts Call Wild Birds Victims, not Vectors,” New York Times, 12 October 2004.
216. Shaoni Bhattacharya, “Three People Killed by Bird Flu in Vietnam,” New Scientist, 12 August 2004.
217. WHO release, 12 September 2004, www.smh.com.au.
218. “Concern over Bird, Humanflu Outbreaks,” Nation (Bangkok), 15 September, and “Bird Flu Suspected in Child Deaths,” Nation (Bangkok), 24 September 2004.
219. “Cambodia: Outbreak of Bird Flu,” Nation (Bangkok), 22 September 2004.
220. “Thailand Offers Chicken for Russian Arms,” Moscow News, 1 September 2004.
221. Bryan Walsh, “Sickness Spreads,” and Debora MacKenzie, “Bird Flu Transmitted between Humans in Thailand,” New Scientist.
222. “Cabinet Given Bird-Flu Deadline,” Nation (Bangkok), 30 September 2004.
223. “Young Girl becomes Third Bird Flu Fatality,” Nation (Bangkok), 5 October 2004.
224. Thijs Kuiken et al., “Avian H5N1 Influenza in Cats,” Science 306 (8 October 2004): p. 241.
225. Deborah MacKenzie, “Europe Has Close Call with Deadly Bird Flu,” New Scientist, November 2004.
226. “Flu Pandemic ‘Could Wreck Ecosystem,’ ” Seven News (Australia), 11 December 2004.
227. “Scary Strains,” Newsweek, 1 November 2004.
228. Associated Press, 1 November 2004.
229. Conference press releases: Sabin Vaccine Institute, 28 October; UK government, Health and Community, 23 November; and WHO, Regional Office for Southeast Asia, 25 November 2004.
230. Keith Bradsher and Lawrence Altman, “Tens of Millions,” New York Times, 29 November 2004.
231. Martin Enserink, “WHO Adds More ‘1918’ to Pandemic Predictions,” Science 306 (17 December 2004): p. 2025; and Neil Mackay, “Is This the Scourge of 2005?” Sunday Herald, 26 December 2004.
232. Richard Webby and Robert Webster, “Are We Ready for Pandemic Influenza?” in Knobler, Learning from SARS, p. 217.
233. Quoted in Erika Check, “Thompson Cedes Crown,” Nature 432 (9 December 2004), p. 660.
234. Robert Pear, “U.S. Health Chief, Stepping Down, Issues Warning,” New York Times, 4 December 2004.
235. $105 million for abstinence and $100 million for influenza; see New York Times, 23 November 2004.
236. Richard Horton, Heath Wars (New York: New York Review of Books, 2003), p. 79.
237. GAO.
238. Report quoted in Llewellyn Lefters, Linda Brink, and Ernest Takafuji, “Are We Prepared for a Viral Epidemic Emergency?” in Morse, Emerging Viruses, p. 272.
239. Report quoted in Horton, Heath Wars, p. 79; and M. Cohen, “Changing Patterns of Infectious Disease,” Nature 406 (2000): pp. 762–67.
240. Greg Behrman, The Invisible People (New York: Free Press, 2004).
241. Government Accounting Office (GAO), Influenza Pandemic: Plan Needed for Federal and State Response (Washington, DC: The Office, 2000), pp. 5, 8–11, 17, and 27–28.
242. Institute of Health, Calling the Shots: Immunization Finance Policies and Practices (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 2000), pp. 3–4, 88, and 144.
243. Medical Center, University of Rochester, press release, 12 December 2003.
244. Robert Hockberger, “Even Without a Flu Epidemic, ERs Are in Crisis,” Los Angeles Times, 27 December 2003.
245. Raymond Strikas, Gregory Wallace, and Martin Myers, “Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Action Plan for the United States: 2002 Update,” CUD 35 Vaccines (1 September 2002), p. 591.
246. Institute of Medicine, Committee on Assuring the Health of the Public in the 21st Century, The Future of the Public’s Health in the 21st Century (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 2003), pp. 97–99.
247. Debora MacKenzie, “Anthrax Attack Bug ‘Identical’ to Army Strain,” New Scientist, 9 May 2002.
248. Robert Webster and Elizabeth Walker, “Influenza,” American Scientist (March–April 2003).
249. Graeme Laver and Robert Webster, “Introduction,” Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., 356 B (2001): p. 1814. This message is repeated in Graeme Laver and Elspeth Garman, “The Origin and Control of Pandemic Influenza,” Science 293 (7 September 2001); Robert Webster and Elizabeth Walker, “Influenza, American Scientist (March-April 2003); and Richard Webby and Robert Webster, “Are We Ready for Pandemic Influenza?” Science 302 (28 November 2003).
250. Edward Richards, “Bioterrorism and the Use of Fear in Public Health,” at http://plague.law.umkc.edu.
251. U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services, “Opening Statement by Tommy Thompson, Secretary . . . on Project Bioshield,” House Select Commission on Homeland Security, 27 March 2003.
252. Merrill Goozner, “Bioterror Brain Drain,” American Prospect, 1 October 2003.
253. Scott Shane, “Exposure at Germ Lab Reignites a Public Health Debate,” New York Times, 24 January 2005.
254. Quoted in Patrick Martin, “US Health Care Workers Spurn Bush Smallpox Vaccination Plan,” World Socialist Website (1 March 2003), www.wsws.org.
255. Marcia Angell, The Truth About the Drug Companies (New York: Random House, 2004), p. 11.
256. “Drug Makers Find Vaccines Can Be Good for Business,” New York Times, 29 October 2004.
257. Martin Leeb, “A Shot in the Arm,” Nature 431 (21 October 2004): p. 893.
258. Greg Critser, “Pharmaceutical Group Chiefs March to Individual Beats,” Los Angeles Times, 20 December 2000.
259. Donald Barlett and James Steele, “The Health of Nations,” New York Times, 24 October 2004, Op-Ed.
260. Walsh, “Sickness Spreads,” Time (Asia), 11 October 2004.
261. Michael Rosenwald, “Flu Crisis Sparks Fresh Look at Vaccine Production,” Washington Post, 27 November 2004.
262. Halla Thorsteinsdottir, “Cuba—Innovation through Synergy,” Nature Biotechnology 22 (December 2004): p. DC19.
263. Sabin Russell, San Francisco Chronicle, 17 October 2004.
264. Mark Smolinski, Margaret Hamburg, and Joshua Lederberg (eds.), Microbial Threats to Health: Emergence, Detection and Response, Institute of Medicine (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2003), p. 136.
265. Trust for America’s Health, Ready or Not? Protecting the Public’s Health in the Age of Bioterrorism (Washington, DC: 2004), p. 32.
266. GAO, Flu Vaccine: Supply Problems Heighten Need to Ensure Access for High-Risk People (Washington, DC: May 2001); p. 7; and Dr. W. Paul Glezen of Baylor, quoted in New York Times, 17 October 2004.
267. Geoffrey Porges, quoted in Jonathan Peterson and Denise Gellene, “Flu Vaccine Problems Run Deep,” Los Angeles Times, 18 November 2004.
268. Ibid.
269. Zachary Coile, “Chiron Found Bad Flu Vaccine in July,” San Francisco Chronicle, 18 November 2004; and David Brown, “U.S. Knew Last Year of Flu Vaccine’s Plant’s Woes,” Washington Post, 18 November 2004.
270. Keith Bradsher and Lawrence Altman, “Experts Confront Major Obstacles in Containing Virulent Bird Flu,” New York Times, 30 September 2004.
271. DHHS, Draft: Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response Plan, August 2004, p. 23.
272. Editorial, New York Times, 12 October 2004.
273. Bradsher and Altman, “Experts.”
274. Dr. William Winkenwerder, covering letter to Department of Defense Pandemic Influenza Preparation and Response Planning Guidance, office of The Assistant Secretary of Defense, 21 September 2004.
275. Martin Enserink, “Looking the Pandemic in the Eye,” Science 306 (15 October 2004): p. 394.
276. ACP/ASIM press release, 15 August 2002; and “IDSA Makes Recommendations to Strengthen Draft Plan,” Medical News Today, 29 October 2004.
277. Quoted in CIDRAP News, 15 November 2004.
278. My emphasis, DHHS, Draft, p. 35.
279. Interviewed by Reynolds, “The Flu Hunters,” p. 10.
280. John Minz and Joby Warrick, “U.S. Unprepared Despite Progress, Experts Say,” Washington Post, 8 November 2004.
281. Trust for America’s Health, Ready or Not?, pp. 3 and 33–34; and Facing the Flu, February 2004, pp. 1–2 and 6.
282. Editorial, “Struggling with the Flu,” Nature 431 (28 October 2004): p. 1023.
283. Kerry-Edwards campaign, “George Bush Passing the Blame on the Flu Vaccine,” press release, 19 October 2004.
284. Ralph Nader, “Bush Administration Ignores the Potential Threat of Bird Flu,” CommonDreams.org, 4 Feburary 2004; and Nader for President press release, 26 August 2004.
285. Horton, Heath Wars, p. 326.
286. Paul Ewald, Plague Time: The New Germ Theory of Disease (New York: The Free Press, 2002), pp. 21–25.
287. Paul Ewald, Evolution of Infectious Disease (Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press, 1994), pp. 110–13.
288. A. McMichael, “Environmental and Social Influences on Emerging Infectious Diseases: Past, Present and Future,” Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. 359 B (2004): p. 1052.
289. Ewald, Evolution, p. 117.
290. Laurie Garrett, Betrayal of Trust: The Collapse of Global Public Health (New York: Hyperion, 2000), pp. 3 and 9.
291. Horton, Heath Wars, pp. 325, 328–331, and 343.
292. Editorial, “Political Neglect in India’s Health,” Lancet 363 (15 May 2004): p. 1565.
293. Alex de Waal, “Sex in Summertown,” TLS, 6 August 2004, p. 6.
294. Vasant Narasimhan et al., “Responding to the Global Human Resources Crisis,” Lancet 363 (1 May 2004), p. 1469; and Science 304 (25 June 2004), p. 1910.
295. Debora MacKenzie, “Lack of Vaccine Raises Fears of Flu Pandemic,” NewScientist.com, 23 September 2004; and Guardian (London), 23 September 2004.
296. Richard Webby and Robert Webster, “Are We Ready for Pandemic Influenzas?” in Knobler, Learning from SARS, p. 214.
297. Kaiser, “Facing Down the Flu,” p. 394.
298. Enserink, “Looking,” p. 393.
299. Kaiser, “Facing Down the Flu,” p. 395.
300. Ibid., p. 397.
301. S. Ragnar Norrby, “Alert to a European Epidemic,” Nature 431 (30 September 2004): pp. 507–8.
302. Kaiser, “Facing Down the Flu,” p. 394.
303. Rene Snacken et al., “The Next Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from Hong Kong, 1997,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 5, no. 2 (March–April 1999): p. 201.
304. Kaiser, “Facing Down the Flu,” p. 394.
305. Bradsher and Altman, “A War and a Mystery.”
306. Leeb, “A Shot in the Arm” and Carl Nathan, “Antibiotics at the Crossroads,” Nature 431 (21 October 2004): pp. 892–93 and 899.
307. Ghanshyam Shah, Public Health and Urban Development: The Plague in Surat (New Delhi 1997), pp. 109–10.
308. Garrett, Betrayal, p. 27.
309. Ibid., pp. 31–33.
310. Shah, Urban Development, pp. 224–26.
311. Kaiser, “Facing Down the Flu,” p. 397.
312. “Fact Sheet: HIV/AIDS and the Flu,” CDC, 8 November 2004.
313. “Future Flu Epidemic Warning,” CBSNEWS.com, 15 December 2004.
314. Keith Bradsher, “Vietnam Seeks Global Aid to Fight Bird Flu,” 3 February 2005; and “A Medical Mystery Man Bounces Back from Avian Flu,” New York Times, 5 February 2005.
315. Quoted in “Vietnam Moves to Curb Bird Flu,” Los Angeles Times, 3 February 2005.
316. Hans Troedsson and Anton Rychener, “When Influenza Takes Flight,” New York Times, 5 February 2005, Op-Ed.
317. Pete Aldhous, “Vietnam’s War on Flu,” Nature 433 (13 January 2005): p. 104.
318. “Dangerous State of Denial,” Nature 433 (12 January 2005).
319. WHO, “Report by the Secretariat: Influenza Pandemic Preparedness and Response,” press release, 20 January 2005.
320. CIDRAP News Network, 28 January 2005; and “Secrets and Epidemics,” Los Angeles Times, 28 January 2005, editorial.
321. Darren Schuettler, “West Urged to Help Fight Avian Flu,” Globe and Mail (26 February 2005); Menno de Jong, et al., “Fatal Avian Influenza A (H5N1) in a Child Presenting with Diarrhea Followed by a Coma,” New England Journal of Medicine 352, no. 7 (17 February 2005): p. 686; Barry, The Great Influenza, p. 392; and David Syranoski, “Tests in Tokyo Reveal Flaws in Vietnam’s Bird Flu Surveillance,” Nature 433 (24 February 2005): p. 787.
322. Jehangir Pocha, “The Coming Bird Flu Pandemic,” In These Times, 1 March 2005; and Dennis Normile, “First Human Case in Cambodia Highlights Surveillance Shortcomings,” Science 307 (18 February 2005).
323. “Avian Influenza: Perfect Storm Now Gathering?” Lancet 365 (5 March 2005): p. 820.
324. Martin Enserink and Dennis Normile, “True Numbers Remain Elusive in Bird Flu Outbreak,” Science 307 (25 March 2005): p. 1865.
325. Rob Stein, “Internal Dissension Grows as CDC Faces Big Threats to Public Health,” Washington Post, 6 March 2005.
326. Scott Shane, “U.S. Germ-Research Policy is Protested by 758 Scientists,” New York Times, 1 March, 2005.
327. Mike Leavitt, “Preparing Against Pandemic Influenza,” (speech text), 7 April 2005 (available at www.medicalnewstoday.com).
328. Shane, “U.S. Germ-Research Policy”; Leavitt, “Preparing Against Pandemic Influenza”; and Gerberding, CIDRAP News, 21 February 2005.
329. Independent, 27 Feburary 2005; and Reuters, 2 March 2005.
330. Robert Roos, “Vendor Thought H2N2 Virus was Safe, Officials Say,” CIDRAP News, 13 April 2005; “Deadly 1957 Strain of Flu is Found in Lab-Test Kits,” Associated Press, 13 April 2005; and Lawrence Altman and Marc Santor, “Risk from Deadly Flu Strain Is Called Low,” New York Times, 14 April 2005.
331. Roos, “Vendor Thought H2N2 Virus was Safe.”
332. OIE press release, 8 April 2005; Alisa Tang, “Bird Flu Strains Could Combine,” Associated Press, 6 April 2002; and Dennis Normile, “North Korea Collaborates to Fight Bird Flu,” Science 308 (8 April 2005).
333. Declan Butler, “Vaccination Will Work Better than Culling, Say Bird Flu Experts,” Nature 434 (14 April 2005): p. 810.
334. Ilaria Capua quoted in Martin Enserink, “Veterinary Scientists Shore Up Defenses Against Bird Flu,” Science 308 (15 April 2005): p. 341.