Michael Junge
Across the major Westerosi wars, fleets play small but incomparably pivotal roles. Wars are fought and won ashore. Those small roles are so central that even small fleets remain important, to the point that marriages, plots, and promises revolve around fleets more than armies.
The history of Westerosi naval power is largely a narrative of contests between kingdoms, rivals, and violence at sea. The wealth and strength of kingdoms rises and falls with sea commerce and control and has done so since the First Men. The greatest tactic to increase wealth in Westeros is to exclude others, or remove them, from the sea. Whether it be the Dornish trade or blockade as siege, wealth moves or stops moving via the sea. Commerce by sea, while important and often violent, rarely leads to war on land. Even the loss of fleets is seldom seen as a threat to the houses ashore. However, fleets are inseparable from war on land.
While seaborne commerce was not the sole cause of war, wars between kingdoms routinely relied on fleets of ships to bring goods, material, horses, or men to the field of battle. Ships laid and relieved sieges. Control of the seas tipped the balance or modified conduct ashore. Sea power and maritime history are inextricably military history. One does not exist without the other.
Armies are, in relation to fleets, easy to raise. Every holding, every barony, and every kingdom has soldiers organized into some level of army. Skills gained in hunting animals translate easily to armed conflict on land. Not so at sea.
Most kingdoms have, at best, a small fishing fleet. And even then, only those who have sufficient coast and harbors need to be at sea. Fishing boats make poor ships of the line. Fishing boats have one purpose—catching and transporting fish. They are not intended for carrying men or horses, and when fishing boats carry men, armored men, the totals number only in the dozens. If horses are desired, then no men are carried in the same boat. Fishing boats are not armored or armed. They are not solid enough to carry cannon of consequence, and any arms fired from them must contend with the moving sea. It’s very different from firing a bow and arrow or a cannon from solid and unmoving land. House Tully thrives on the fact that water of any sort, even an unbridged river, can so retard an army’s progress as to give victory to the opponent. And bridges do not yet cross the sea.
What makes a sea power? Alfred Thayer Mahan tells us there are six features: geographic position; physical geography including climate, natural resources, and topography; territorial expanse; population size; population character; and government character.1 In all of Westeros there are only three fleets: the Royal Fleet, in King’s Landing; the Iron Fleet, of the Iron Islands; and the Redwyne Fleet, pledged to House Tyrell and, through them, to the king. The Royal Fleet numbers around two hundred ships; the Iron Fleet, around a hundred. Of these three fleets, only the Iron Fleet has the physical location and individual character to seek sea power. Other houses lack either the geographic location, the topography, the expanse, the population, or the government interest to field a fleet that could become central to its culture and identity.
The North is the largest of the Seven Kingdoms but has been without any sort of real sea power since Brandon the Shipwright sailed south and disappeared; in his grief, Brandon’s son, Brandon the Burner, destroyed the remnants of the fleet and any shipbuilding industry. For centuries, no real threat came by way of the sea—only Ironborn raiders, coming and going like the Free Folk, attacked from beyond the Wall, taking and leaving but never seeking to conquer. The White Walkers and Night King, however far off in history, always sought to conquer, destroy, and remain. The history of the North is focused on a single threat, a single great (or greater) power. Winterfell is central to the holding, without interest in the sea. Likewise, the remaining kingdoms are largely ruled from central locations. The government of the North—and with it, its people and character—is not interested in the sea. While extensively bordered by water—the Sunset Sea to the west and the Narrow Sea to the east—the North is far more focused on the Wall and winter.
Even with the largely insignificant emphasis on sea power, the quest for ships and fleets takes up much time, intrigue, and gold. Jorah Mormont knows that gold can buy ships and intercedes, ineffectually at first but with great impact later, against Daenerys’s benevolence during a Dothraki sack. Ser Davos Seaworth, the Onion Knight, knows that Stannis can only take King’s Landing—and with it, seize the Iron Throne—with ships. In order to acquire ships, Robb Stark goes against his mother’s advice by seeking an alliance with Balon Greyjoy. And Daenerys needs ships to cross the Narrow Sea. Even when Daenerys is installed in Dragonstone and begins her conquest of Westeros, her need for and reliance on ships is not finished. To avoid being perceived as a foreign invader, Daenerys sends the Iron Fleet, or the portion controlled by Theon and Asha, south to ferry the Dornish army to lay siege on King’s Landing, while the Unsullied sail for Casterly Rock.
Not every hunter is a soldier, and not every guard detachment an army. Some cultures are better suited to war than others. The famed Unsullied and other sellswords provide one direction for war; the standing armies in Westeros, another. Finally, the warlike Dothraki nomads provide a third. Each of these three are isolated in their own place, their own lands. Eddard Stark knew this, telling King Robert, “Even a million Dothraki are no threat to the realm, as long as they remain on the other side of the Narrow Sea.”2 For the Unsullied, Dothraki, or Seven Kingdoms to ever come into conflict would require more than just desire—it would require a fleet.
As Daenerys begins her conquest, Cersei also seeks allies, choosing an untrustworthy one in Euron Greyjoy, recognizing that the Ironborn “have ships, and they’re good at killing.”3 Euron has the remainder of the Iron Fleet and is also good at killing, having led a revolt against King Robert, which included burning the Lannister fleet. Like Daenerys in Meereen, Cersei is willing to offer marriage in return for a fleet. And Cersei’s arrangement proves disastrous for Daenerys.
What lessons can the non-Westerosi learn from this? Look back again at the criteria, the needs and foundations, for sea power: geographic position; physical geography including climate, natural resources, and topography; territorial expanse; population size; population character; and government character. In the United States of America a maritime heritage is so enshrined in our culture that we take all six of the criteria for granted. We romanticize the industrial might that brought victory in the Second World War. We are so resource rich that even as our industrial base shrinks, many believe that it can be rapidly reconstituted. With feature films like The Perfect Storm and television shows like Deadliest Catch, the public sees a fishing industry that is now a fraction of what it once was. Even with more aircraft carriers than the rest of the world combined, we tend to sit comfortably on our laurels; should we?
The American central position—between two benevolent or indifferent neighbors to the north and south and separated from Europe and Asia by oceans to the east and west—will remain. Geography is one of those things that changes little within the life span of countries or even empires. To what extent will climate change, resource depletion, and urban sprawl alter the culture and population of this maritime nation? Much of the physical geography will remain—deepwater ports for instance—but other things are in question.
In 1776 every state (née colony) had coastline to the east. By 1812 three of the eighteen states were landlocked—no matter how grand the Mississippi River is or how great the Great Lakes are, they are not the sea. By 1860 half the states were landlocked—a ratio that remains today.
Balancing this is that much of the population lives near the coast. In fact, this is true around the globe; 80 percent of the world’s population lives within two hundred miles of the sea. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Coastal Population Report tells us that 52 percent of Americans live in counties that border the oceans.4 Of the country’s twenty-five largest cities, twelve are on the coasts, and another seven are in coastal states.
Ninety percent of global trade travels by sea, and the United States is by far the biggest consumer of commercial goods and global natural resources. Maintaining global access to the maritime commons is, has been, and will be in the United States’ interests. Meanwhile, our merchant fleet ranks twenty-second in the world by tonnage—behind Antigua and Barbuda, Bermuda, Japan, Norway, and even Malta.5 The United States claims two hundred container ships. By comparison, China has over two thousand.6
Among fishing fleets, the story is similar, with the United States ranking roughly sixth behind Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, and Korea and capturing a quarter as much as China and half as much as Peru—both of whom have smaller fleets.
Among navies, however, the United States ranks first. The United States has the most ships, the greatest reach, and the greatest overall firepower. U.S. aircraft carriers total more than the rest of the world combined. Not only are there more of them, but each carrier can carry twice as many aircraft as the next-largest foreign carrier. Like the merchant and fishing fleets, however, the U.S. Navy is in both overall and relative decline.
Like Brandon the Shipwright’s travels, China once sailed far across the Indo-Pacific region. During the Ming dynasty (1368–1644), Chinese fleets sailed as far south as Java, as far west as the Persian Gulf and Africa, and possibly as far east as North America. And like Brandon the Burner, in 1433 China burned its fleets and retreated from the sea to remain shore bound for centuries. Now, in the last two decades, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy has seen a tenfold increase in defense spending and boasts two aircraft carriers and over a hundred blue water combatant ships.7 China has increased its reach, routinely operates off the coast of Africa, and is building a naval base in the Horn of Africa. Russia remains a capable naval power with Cold War–era ships and a modernization plan.
George R. R. Martin has admitted that his Game of Thrones is Mediterranean centric, Eurocentric, and even Anglocentric.8 His historical analogies only go so far. Despite the great naval battles and rivalries of the past two thousand years, no country was able to take a position like the United States until the last century. No other country in the world has had the position, geography, topography, climate, population, and government to field both a large army and large navy. But this capability may be short-lived. Aegon Targaryen captured and united Westeros with an army, small fleet, and three dragons. His descendants ruled for three hundred years. For the time, dragons were the ultimate in asymmetric warfare, as they struck fear into the hearts of all men and laid waste to wood, stone, and steel. In time those dragons shrank in stature, until they finally withered away to become shadows of their former selves and their masters went from cruel conquerors to cruel and crazed. A united Seven Kingdoms could not be conquered with an army, small fleet, and three dragons—Daenerys needs a large army, a fleet of warships and transports, and three dragons.
Pax Americana is only in its first century—will it make two more?
1. A. T. Mahan, The Influence of Sea Power upon History, 1660–1783 (Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1890; Project Gutenberg, 2007), http://www.gutenberg.org/files/13529/13529-h/13529-h.htm.
2. David Benioff and D. B. Weiss, “The Kingsroad,” season 1, episode 2, dir. Tim Van Patten, Game of Thrones, aired April 24, 2011, on HBO.
3. David Benioff and D. B. Weiss, “Dragonstone,” season 7, episode 1, dir. Jeremy Podeswa, Game of Thrones, aired July 16, 2017, on HBO.
4. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Coastal Population Report: Population Trends from 1970–2020 (Washington DC: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Census Bureau, March 2013), https://aamboceanservice.blob.core.windows.net/oceanservice-prod/facts/coastal-population-report.pdf.
5. See “Shipping Fleet Statistics: Data Tables (FLE),” Department of Transport, March 28, 2018, https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/shipping-fleet-statistics.
6. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Review of Maritime Transport 2017 (Geneva, Switzerland: United Nations, 2017), 30, https://unctad.org/en/publicationslibrary/rmt2017_en.pdf.
7. Kyle Mizokami, “The Chinese Military Is a Paper Dragon,” Real Clear Defense, September 5, 2014, https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2014/09/05/the_chinese_military_is_a_paper_dragon_107416.html.
8. grrm [George R. R. Martin], July 4, 2013, comment on grrm [George R. R. Martin], “We’re Number One . . . ,” Not a Blog, June 29, 2013, grrm.livejournal.com/326474.html?thread=17863242#t17863242.