NOTES
Prologue
1Henry Belot, ‘Election 2019: Scott Morrison says “I have always believed in miracles” as Coalition retains power’, ABC News Online, ‹www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-18/federal-election-result-2019-antony-green-calls-shock-victory/11126536›, accessed 24 January 2020.
2Derived from ‘Party Representation in Parliament: House of Representatives’, Parliamentary Handbook of the Commonwealth of Australia (Canberra: Parliamentary Library, 2017), 423, and Australian Electoral Commission, ‘2019 Federal Election: House of Representatives – final results’, AEC, ‹results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseDefault-24310.htm›, accessed 24 January 2020. Noteworthy changes in the size of the House of Representatives are noted at the bottom of the table.
3Damien Cave, ‘Australia burns again, and now its biggest city is choking’, New York Times, 6 December 2019, ‹www.nytimes.com/2019/12/06/world/australia/sydney-fires.html›, accessed 24 January 2020.
4Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Globaïa, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDB), Stockholm Resilience Centre and Stockholm Environment Institute, ‘Welcome to the Anthropocene,’ ‹http://anthropocene.info/anthropocene-timeline.php›, accessed 12 June 2020.
5Since renamed the Noel Butlin Archives Centre.
6The Labor MPs were Gordon Bilney (Kingston) and Senator Rose Crowley (SA), and the Liberal was Senator Peter Baume (NSW). Gordon Bilney was later extremely apologetic.
7Irving L Janis, Victims of Groupthink: A psychological study of foreign-policy decisions and fiascos (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1972); Marlene E Turner and Anthony R Pratkanis, ‘Twenty-Five Years of Groupthink Theory and Research: Lessons from the Evaluation of a Theory’, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 73, 2/3 (February/March) 1998, 105–115.
1Elect a leader who can do the substance and theatre of politics
1Based on preference flows at the 2016 election to produce a ‘two-party preferred’ vote – that is, the vote each of the two main political groupings in Australia (Labor on the one hand, and the Liberal and National parties [LNP] on the other) – were likely to get after the preference of every vote was exhausted. Preferences are discussed further on pages 42–43.
2Auditor-General Report No 23 of 2019–2020, Award of Funding under the Community Sport Infrastructure Program, 15 January 2020, Australian National Audit Office, Canberra, ‹www.anao.gov.au/work/performance-audit/award-funding-under-the-community-sport-infrastructure-program›, accessed 4 February 2020.
3‘Voters neither understood nor particularly liked Whitlam as opposition leader, and this remained the case in the run-up to the 1972 election – the first at which Labor used market research at a national level as part of its campaign planning … Direct quotes about Whitlam from voters in qualitative research groups at the time included: “Ignores questions, and is evasive; justifies too much; cold, distant, not human; gives impotent answers to potent questions; never seen with women; oily, irritating voice (but better than McMahon’s); intelligent, intellectual loner; talks and qualifies too much; always knocking the government; not what he says, but the way he says it; does not hold attention; bends over backward not to offend; not rugged or manly; sorry for him … seems to be in the wrong party; don’t trust him; does not come across as strong.”’ Christine Wallace, ‘The Silken Cord: Contemporaneous 20th Century Prime Ministerial Biography in Australia and Its Meaning’, a thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of the Australian National University, 10 June 2015, 240.
4‘I urged Gillard to challenge Rudd: Bill Shorten’, Sydney Morning Herald, 29 June 2010, ‹www.smh.com.au/national/i-urged-gillard-to-challenge-rudd-bill-shorten-20100629-zfms.html›, accessed 24 January 2020.
5‘It is a stunning turnaround for the right faction leader (Bill Shorten), who played a pivotal role in the ouster of Mr Rudd three years ago – almost to the day.’ Emma Griffiths, ‘Kevin Rudd to face off against Julia Gillard in Labor leadership spill, loser to quit Parliament’, ABC Online, 26 June 2013, ‹www.abc.net.au/news/specials/rudd-returns/2013-06-26/gillard-calls-spill-after-rudd-backers-move-against-her/4783136›, accessed 24 January 2020.
6Roderick M Kramer, ‘When Paranoia Makes Sense’, Harvard Business Review, July 2002, ‹hbr.org/2002/07/when-paranoia-makes-sense›, accessed 24 January 2020.
7The vote of at least 60 per cent of Labor MPs is required to change the party leader between elections, rising in government to a 75 per cent hurdle.
8Katharine Murphy and Paul Karp, ‘Liberal Party changes rules to require two-thirds majority to unseat sitting PM’, Guardian, 3 December 2018, ‹www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/03/liberal-party-morrison-changes-rules-to-require-two-thirds-majority-to-unseat-sitting-pm›, accessed 24 January 2020.
9Compare: ‘While there is no appetite for a fresh round of leadership theatrics, years of virtuous behaviour with no electoral payoff have led to some incredibly frank talk within Labor ranks. If Albanese is not seen as being competitive with Scott Morrison within “18 months”, one senior MP tells me, the reluctance to act to remove him that occurred under Shorten will not be repeated. There is a pragmatism in the party now that discipline was too prized over the past six years and timidity to speak up got them nowhere’: Patricia Karvelas, ‘Parliament has run out of steam, and at times, it felt more like an episode of Seinfeld’, ABC Online, 19 October 2019, ‹www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-19/parliament-out-of-steam-both-sides-trying-to-land-gloves/11616460?pfmredir=sm›, accessed 24 January 2020.
10‘The public sphere is not the realm of civic dialogue, a deliberative order in which citizenship is exercised. It is simply a space for appearances. Its central event is not dialogue, which is fundamentally something spoken, egalitarian, and symmetrical. Public dialogue, the fixation of so many intellectuals and activists, is but a contradiction in terms: the moment there is an audience, a dialogue will inevitably mutate into a spectacle. In effect, the main event of the public sphere is spectacle, which is fundamentally something visual, inegalitarian, and asymmetrical’: Ari Adut, Reign of Appearances: The misery and splendor of the public sphere (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2018), x–xii.
11Karen Middleton, ‘Exclusive: Auditor-General found Morrison breaches’, The Saturday Paper, 10-16 November 2018, ‹www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2018/11/10/exclusive-auditor-general-found-morrison-breaches/15417684007120›, accessed 24 January 2020; and ‘Fresh documents in Morrison sacking’, The Saturday Paper, 8–14 June 2019, ‹www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2019/06/08/fresh-documents-morrisons-sacking/15599160008252›, accessed 24 January 2020.
12Auditor-General Report No 23 of 2019–2020, Award of Funding under the Community Sport Infrastructure Program, 15 January 2020, Australian National Audit Office, Canberra, ‹www.anao.gov.au/work/performance-audit/award-funding-under-the-community-sport-infrastructure-program›, accessed 4 February 2020.
13Glyn Davis, ‘Leader of the gang’, Griffith Review, November 2011, ‹www.griffithreview.com/articles/15823›, accessed 24 January 2020.
14David Runciman, ‘Do your homework’, London Review of Books, 39, 6, 16 March 2017, ‹www.lrb.co.uk/v39/n06/david-runciman/do-your-homework›, accessed 24 January 2020.
15Rolling Stone, 481, March 1993; John Hewson interview with Mike Willesee, A Current Affair, Nine Network, 3 March 1993.
2Put frontbenchers who bring voters along with them into key portfolios
1Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill, Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 7 November 2019, 9, ‹alp.org.au/media/2043/alp-campaign-review-2019.pdf›, accessed 24 January 2020.
2Findings 2 and 4, Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign.
3Findings 1, 3, 5, 6 and 7, Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign. The only other one was Finding 8: ‘Bill Shorten’s unpopularity contributed to the election loss’: Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign.
4Finding 4, Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign.
5Finding 2, Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign.
6Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign.
7Upon Chris Bowen announcing his Labor leadership candidacy, the ABC, for example, reported: ‘While Mr Bowen was speaking, rank and file members of the NSW right were expressing their disbelief at his candidacy. Two people contacted the ABC to say “WTF?” and “he’s got to be kidding himself”. Labor right powerbroker Don Farrell, a senator from South Australia, questioned Mr Bowen’s path to the leadership. “I’m not sure Chris will end up being a candidate for the leadership,” he told the ABC.’ The report also said that Bowen’s prominent New South Wales right colleague Tony Burke had declared support for Anthony Albanese over his own factional colleague Bowen. Brett Worthington, ‘Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen to run for Labor leader’, ABC News, 21 May 2019, ‹www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-21/chris-bowen-to-run-for-labor-leader/11132928›, accessed 24 January 2020. Bowen withdrew from the contest a day later. Brett Worthington, ‘Chris Bowen pulls out of Labor leadership battle after party’s election defeat’, ABC News, 22 May 2019, ‹www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-22/federal-election-labor-chris-bowen-leadership-anthony-albanese/11127254›, accessed 24 January 2020.
8Chris Bowen to Jon Faine, ABC Radio Melbourne, 29 January 2019, ‹www.chrisbowen.net/media-releases/abc-radio-melbourne-with-jon-faine-tuesday-29-january-2019›, accessed 24 January 2020.
9David Crowe, ‘“We’ll have to recalibrate”: Bowen to aim for Labor’s heartland’, Sydney Morning Herald, 22 May 2019, ‹www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-ll-have-to-recalibrate-bowen-to-aim-for-labor-s-heartland-20190521-p51pra.html›, accessed 24 January 2020.
10Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 35.
11The franking credit policy proposed ending cash refunds on share franking credits on the basis they were a tax break on tax that had never been paid.
12Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 12. Phillip Coorey, ‘Franking credits not to blame for election loss: Bowen’, Australian Financial Review, 6 November 2019, ‹www.afr.com/politics/federal/franking-credits-not-to-blame-for-election-loss-bowen-20191106-p537tn›, accessed 24 January 2020.
13Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 12.
14John Kerin, The Way I Saw It; The Way It Was: The making of national agricultural and natural resource management policy (Melbourne: Analysis & Policy Observatory, 2017), ‹apo.org.au/node/76216›, accessed 24 January 2020.
3Create policy winners, not losers
1When it happens you remember it forever; compare Shane Warne’s ‘Gatting ball’ at Old Trafford on 4 June 1993, ‹youtu.be/5Y1hI2Tt8F8›, accessed 24 January 2020. It very occasionally happens in politics. In Australian politics Andrew Peacock’s return as Liberal leader in 1989 was crippled almost immediately when four of the plotters who engineered it appeared on ABC-TV’s Four Corners program and smugly detailed how they did it, dealing a devastating blow to Peacock’s leadership.
2Gough Whitlam, speech to the Annual Conference of the Australian Labor Party (Victorian Branch), Melbourne, 9 June 1967, ‹whitlamdismissal.com/downloads/1967/67-06-09_speech-to-victorian-alp-conference_whitlam.pdf›, accessed 24 January 2020.
3Gough Whitlam, speech to the Annual Conference of the Australian Labor Party (Victorian Branch).
4The policy formulation process ‘lacked coherence and was driven by multiple demands rather than by a compelling story of why Labor should be elected to government’ (Finding 13). The ‘sheer size, complexity and frequency of Labor’s policy announcements’ crowded each other in the media and made them difficult for local campaigns to communicate (Finding 34). The ‘almost daily announcements of new, multi-billion-dollar policy initiatives raised anxieties’ among low-income voters that ‘Labor’s expensive policy agenda would crash the economy and risk their jobs’ (Finding 35) and, especially in response to fears cleverly stoked by the Liberals over Labor’s franking credit policy, they ‘swung strongly against Labor’ (Finding 39). Labor’s ‘climate change policy was not costed’ (and) Labor’s inability to respond to Liberal attacks on this ‘played into the Coalition’s characterisation of Labor as a risk’: Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign.
5Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 17.
6Liberal Party of Australia, Fightback! Taxation and Expenditure Reform for Jobs and Growth, 21 November 1991, ‹parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/library/partypol/6DDU6/upload_binary/6DDU6.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22library/partypol/6DDU6%22›, accessed 24 January 2020.
7Gough Whitlam, ALP Campaign Launch Speech, Blacktown Civic Centre, 13 November 1972, 30, ‹www.flipsnack.com/Whitlam/it-s-time-1972-markups.html›, accessed 24 January 2020.
8Whitlam, ALP Campaign Launch Speech, Blacktown Civic Centre.
9‘The new path for Australia after the fifth of March 1983 will be national reconciliation, national recovery, national reconstruction’: Bob Hawke, ALP Campaign Launch, Sydney, 16 February 1983, ‹electionspeeches.moadoph.gov.au/speeches/1983-bob-hawke›, accessed 24 January 2020.
10Australian Electoral Commission, House of Representatives – Two party preferred results 1949 to present, ‹www.aec.gov.au/elections/federal_elections/tpp-results.htm›, accessed 24 January 2020.
11Finding 39, Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 12.
12Finding 39, Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 12.
13George Eaton, ‘Why Labour lost – and how it can recover from an epic defeat’, New Statesman, 15 December 2019, ‹www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/12/why-labour-lost-and-how-it-can-recover-epic-defeat›, accessed 24 January 2020.
4Get excellent polling, focus on the primary vote
1Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 6.
2Two-party preferred: that is, after preferences are notionally allocated.
3Newspoll, Federal two-party preferred (vote) based on the preference flow at the July 2016 federal election, The Australian, ‹www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll›, accessed 24 January 2020.
4Rudd Labor’s primary vote at the 2013 election was 33.4 per cent, only worsened in the post-war period by Shorten Labor’s 2019 result of 33.34 per cent.
5Chris Wallace, ‘Libs’ poll warns of disaster: “Alexander is ready to fall over as soon as someone blows hard enough”’, Australian Financial Review, 9 January 1995.
6Federal two-party preferred (vote) based on the preference flow at the July 2016 federal election.
7Campbell Rhodes, ‘A brief history of opinion polls’, Museum of Australian Democracy, ‹www.moadoph.gov.au/blog/a-brief-history-of-opinion-polls/#›, accessed 24 January 2020.
8Richard Casey letter to Keith Murdoch, 6 May 1940, cited in Simon King, ‘“Australia Speaks”: Reactions to Political Opinion Polls in Australia 1941–1943’, Flinders Journal of History and Politics, 28, 2012, 125–126.
9Tom DC Roberts, Before Rupert: Keith Murdoch and the birth of a dynasty (St Lucia: University of Queensland Press, 2015), 231.
10Murray Goot, ‘Morgan, Roy Edward (1908–1985)’, Australian Dictionary of Biography, National Centre of Biography, Australian National University, ‹adb.anu.edu.au/biography/morgan-roy-edward-15763/text26951›, published first in hardcopy 2012, accessed 24 January 2020; Roy Morgan Research, ‘Roy Morgan – Founder’, ‹www.roymorgan.com/about/about-roy-morgan/founder›, accessed 24 January 2020.
11‘“Australia Speaks”: Reactions to Political Opinion Polls in Australia 1941–1943’, 118–138, see examples throughout the text.
12Newspoll, the polling arm of Murdoch family-controlled News Corp Australia, closed in 2015. News Corp retained ownership of the Newspoll brand and contracted out the actual polling to Galaxy Research. Galaxy was subsequently taken over by British polling firm YouGov and is now YouGov Galaxy, part of YouGov Asia Pacific. Miranda Ward, ‘Newspoll workers to protest sacking, asking for fair redundancy packages and references’, Mumbrella, 29 May 2015, ‹mumbrella.com.au/newspoll-workers-to-protest-sacking-asking-for-fair-redundancy-packages-and-references-297015›, accessed 24 January 2020; Paul Wallbank, ‘YouGov acquires Galaxy Research’, Mumbrella, 13 December 2017, ‹mumbrella.com.au/yougov-acquires-galaxy-research-489774›, accessed 24 January 2020.
13Federal two-party preferred (vote) based on the preference flow at the July 2016 federal election.
14Australian Electoral Commission, 2019 Federal Election, House of Representatives, Two-party preferred, ‹results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseTppByState-24310.htm›, accessed 24 January 2020.
15Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 67.
16Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 68.
17Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 68.
18Brian Schmidt, ‘The mathematics does not lie: Why polling got the Australian election wrong’, Guardian, 20 May 2019, ‹www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/20/mathematics-does-not-lie-why-polling-got-the-australian-election-wrong›, accessed 24 January 2020.
19‘The mathematics does not lie: Why polling got the Australian election wrong’.
20Michael Koziol, ‘“Embarrassed” pollster ripped up poll that showed Labor losing election’, Sydney Morning Herald, 9 June 2019, ‹www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/embarrassed-pollster-ripped-up-poll-that-showed-labor-losing-election-20190604-p51u9v.html›, accessed 24 January 2020.
21‘“Embarrassed” pollster ripped up poll that showed Labor losing election’.
22Percentages rounded to one decimal point. Parliamentary Library, Federal Election Results 1901–2016, Reissue 2, 5 July 2018, ‹parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/library/prspub/5359594/upload_binary/5359594.pdf›, accessed 29 January 2020; Australian Electoral Commission, 2019 Federal Election, First preferences by party, 11 July 2019, ‹results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-NAT.htm›, accessed 29 January 2020.
23Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 67.
24Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 67–68.
25David Briggs, managing director YouGov Galaxy, pinned tweet @YouGovGalaxy, 21 May 2019, ‹twitter.com/YouGovGalaxy/status/1130758769002999809›, accessed 24 January 2020.
5Make regional variations work for you, not against you
1Bob Hawke, ALP Campaign Launch, Sydney, 16 February 1983, ‹electionspeeches.moadoph.gov.au/speeches/1983-bob-hawke›, accessed 24 January 2020; Blanche d’Alpuget, Bob Hawke: The complete biography (Sydney: Simon and Schuster, 2019).
2‘The historian Manning Clark described modern Australia as born of a battle between the “enlargers”, who sought to make the most of their freedom from Mother England on what they saw as their empty continent full of opportunities, and the “punishers and straighteners”, who were reluctant to give away the power of the prison guards and governors who defined so much of the early culture of the great big penal colony they had set up’: Richard Denniss, ‘Dead Right: How neoliberalism redefined growth in the ugliest of ways – a Quarterly Essay abstract’, The Monthly, 15 June 2018, ‹www.themonthly.com.au/blog/richard-denniss/2018/15/2018/1529022371/dead-right›, accessed 13 February 2020. Paul Keating referred to ‘straighteners and enlargers’ several times during the 1993 election campaign: Stuart Macintyre and Anna Clark, The History Wars (Carlton: Melbourne University Press, 2004), revised edition, 242; first published 2003.
3Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Globaïa, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDB) and Stockholm Resilience Centre and Stockholm Environment Institute, ‘Welcome to the Anthropocene’, 2012, ‹anthropocene.info›, accessed 24 January 2020.
4Chris Wallace, ‘The Liberal Party is failing women miserably compared to other democracies, and needs quotas’, The Conversation, 22 January 2019, ‹theconversation.com/the-liberal-party-is-failing-women-miserably-compared-to-other-democracies-and-needs-quotas-110172›, accessed 24 January 2020; ‘Quotas are not pretty but they work – Liberal women should insist on them’, The Conversation, 21 September 2018, ‹theconversation.com/quotas-are-not-pretty-but-they-work-liberal-women-should-insist-on-them-103517›, accessed 24 January 2020.
5Jack Halberstam, The Queer Art of Failure (Durham: Duke University Press, 2011), 56.
6The Queer Art of Failure, 56–57.
7The Queer Art of Failure, 57.
8Hywel Griffith and Jay Savage, ‘Scott Morrison: How Australia’s PM built a “miracle” election win’, BBC News Online, 19 May 2019, ‹www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-48325009›, accessed 24 January 2020.
9Josh Hafner, ‘Donald Trump loves the “poorly educated” – and they love him’, USA Today, 24 February 2016, ‹www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/02/24/donald-trump-nevada-poorly-educated/80860078/›, accessed 24 January 2020; Thomas B Edsall, ‘We aren’t seeing white support for Trump for what it is’, New York Times, 28 August 2018, ‹www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/opinion/trump-white-voters.html›, accessed 24 January 2020.
10Sarah Cameron and Ian McAllister, ‘The 2019 Australian Federal Election: Results from the Australian Election Study’, School of Politics and International Relations, the Australian National University, December 2019, 21, ‹australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/The-2019-Australian-Federal-Election-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study.pdf›, accessed 24 January 2020.
11‘The 2019 Australian Federal Election: Results from the Australian Election Study’.
12Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 52.
13Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 52–53.
14‘The 2019 Australian Federal Election: Results from the Australian Election Study’.
15There was also a large swing against Labor in South East Queensland. The Labor election review found that those who swung most heavily against Labor there were ‘self-described Christians and economically insecure, low-income voters who do not like or follow politics’: Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 19.
16Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 53.
17Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 45.
18Darren Gray, ‘No one behind the wheel: The new workforce driving Australian mines’, Sydney Morning Herald, 27 April 2019, ‹www.smh.com.au/business/companies/no-one-behind-the-wheel-the-new-workforce-driving-australia-s-mines-20190411-p51dd2.html›, accessed 24 January 2020.
19‘No one behind the wheel: The new workforce driving Australian mines’.
20Matthew Stevens, ‘BHP opens robot wars in the battleground state’, Australian Financial Review, 14 November 2019, ‹www.afr.com/companies/mining/bhp-opens-robot-wars-in-the-battleground-state-20191113-p53abt›, accessed 24 January 2020.
6Negotiate better relationships with opponents on the same side of politics
1Chris Wallace, ‘Need, greed or deeds’, Griffith Review, 51, 2016, ‹www.griffithreview.com/articles/need-greed-or-deeds/›, accessed 24 January 2020.
2Max Weber, ‘Politics as a Vocation’, in Max Weber, From Max Weber: Essays in sociology, edited, with an introduction by HH Gerth and C Wright Mills with a new preface by Bryan S Turner (Milton Park: Routledge, 2009), 115; originally ‘Politik als Beruf’ published in 1919 by Duncker & Humboldt, Munich cited in Wallace, ‘Need, greed or deeds’.
3‘Politics as a Vocation’, 115–116.
4‘Need, greed or deeds’.
5Construction Forestry Maritime Mining and Energy Union.
6To more fully explore them see ‘Game theory’, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 8 March 2019, ‹plato.stanford.edu/entries/game-theory›, accessed 24 January 2020.
7‘On Lyons’s death in April 1939 Page became caretaker prime minister for nineteen days while the UAP elected a new leader. He and Richard (Lord) Casey failed to persuade Bruce to return to take office, and (Sir) Robert Menzies, a man with no love for the Country Party, was elected’: Carl Bridge, ‘Page, Sir Earle Christmas (1880–1961)’, Australian Dictionary of Biography, National Centre of Biography, Australian National University, ‹adb.anu.edu.au/biography/page-sir-earle-christmas-7941/text13821›, accessed 24 January 2020.
8‘Page, Sir Earle Christmas (1880–1961)’.
9‘Page, Sir Earle Christmas (1880–1961)’.
10Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 53.
7Neutralise hostile media and befriend unbiased journalists
1‘Politics as a Vocation’, 115–116.
2Tom DC Roberts, Before Rupert: Keith Murdoch and the Birth of a Dynasty; Chris Wallace review of Tom DC Roberts, ‘Before Rupert: Keith Murdoch and the Birth of a Dynasty and Paul Strangio, Paul ‘t Hart and James Walter, ‘The Pivot of Power: Australian Prime Ministers and Political Leadership, 1949–2016’, Australian Journal of Biography and History, 3, 2020 (forthcoming).
3Sally Young, Paper Emperors: The rise of Australia’s media empires (New South: Sydney, 2019).
4Author unidentified, Keith Murdoch, Journalist (Melbourne: Herald & Weekly Times, 1952), 35.
5Keith Murdoch, Journalist, 53 and 22; Before Rupert; Chris Wallace, review of Tom DC Roberts, ‘Before Rupert: Keith Murdoch and the Birth of a Dynasty’.
6Sinclair Davidson, ‘Labor’s franking credits plan adds up to a nana tax’, 30 January 2019, Institute of Public Affairs, ‹ipa.org.au/publications-ipa/labors-franking-credits-plan-adds-up-to-a-nana-tax›, accessed 24 January 2020.
7Mélissa Godin, ‘James Murdoch Criticizes His Father’s Media Empire Over Climate Crisis Denial’, Time Magazine, 15 January 2020, ‹time.com/5765304/rupert-murdoch-son-climate›, accessed 13 February 2020; Max Mason, ‘James Murdoch attacks family empire’, Australian Financial Review, 15 January 2020, ‹www.afr.com/companies/media-and-marketing/james-murdoch-criticises-news-corp-coverage-of-climate-20200115-p53rjw›, accessed 13 February 2020; Kate Walton, ‘How “Murdocracy” controls the climate debate in Australia’, Al Jazeera, 24 January 2020, ‹www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/murdochracy-controls-climate-debate-australia-200124052356203.html›, accessed 13 February 2020.
8Sally Young, How Australia Decides: Election Reporting & the Media (Port Melbourne: Cambridge University Press, 2011), 242-244.
9How Australia Decides, 253.
10How Australia Decides, 278.
11John Stapleton, ‘Dark side of Sky at night: Analysis of Murdoch TV network reveals extent of anti-Labor comments’, The New Daily, May 2019, ‹thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/05/14/andrew-bolt-sky-news-labor/›, accessed 16 February 2020; Andrew Fowler, ‘Changing channels: the questionable influence of radio shock jocks and Sky after dark’, Guardian, 30 December 2018, ‹www.theguardian.com/media/2018/dec/30/changing-channels-the-questionable-influence-of-radio-shock-jocks-and-sky-after-dark›, accessed 24 January 2020.
12For the importance of physical techniques to sloughing off stress see Bessel van der Kolk, The Body Keeps the Score: Brain, mind, and body in the healing of trauma (New York: Penguin, 2015); Emily Nagoski and Amelia Nagoski, Burnout: The secret to unlocking the stress cycle (New York: Ballantine, 2019).
13Julianne Schultz, ‘Disrupting media and politics: When the old rules break, how can the public interest be served?’ in Jenny M. Lewis and Anne Tiernan (eds), Oxford Handbook of Australian Politics (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2020), forthcoming.
14Guardian, ‹www.theguardian.com/au›, accessed 24 January 2020.
15JO Fairfax, ‘Fairfax, John (1804–1877)’, Australian Dictionary of Biography, National Centre of Biography, Australian National University, ‹adb.anu.edu.au/biography/fairfax-john-3493/text5357›, accessed 24 January 2020; CE Sayers, ‘Syme, David (1827–1908)’, Australian Dictionary of Biography, National Centre of Biography, Australian National University, ‹adb.anu.edu.au/biography/syme-david-4679/text7741›, accessed 24 January 2020.
8Do brilliant cut-through ads
1Claire Cozens, ‘Saatchi poster “cost Labour the 1979 election”’, Guardian, 30 May 2001, ‹www.theguardian.com/media/2001/may/30/advertising.marketingandpr›, accessed 13 February 2020; Michael Beschloss, ‘The ad that helped Reagan sell good times to an uncertain nation’, New York Times, 7 May 2016, ‹www.nytimes.com/2016/05/08/business/the-ad-that-helped-reagan-sell-good-times-to-an-uncertain-nation.html›, accessed 13 February 2020.
2Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 24.
3Paul Karp and Nick Evershed, ‘Coal lobby ads biggest third-party political expenditure in Australia’, Guardian, 31 January 2018, ‹www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/01/coal-lobby-ads-biggest-third-party-political-expenditure-in-australia›, accessed 13 February 2020.
4United Australia Party, Political Party Disclosure Return 2018–2019 to the Australian Electoral Commission, ‹transparency.aec.gov.au/Download/ReturnImageByMoniker?moniker=76-BAHLU9›, accessed 4 February 2020; Tom McIlroy and Edmund Tadros, ‘Clive Palmer spent $83 million on failed election bid’, Australian Financial Review, 3 February 2020, ‹www.afr.com/politics/federal/clive-palmer-spent-83-million-on-failed-election-bid-20200203-p53x4j›, accessed 4 February 2020.
5‘Election 2019: Clive Palmer says Scott Morrison can thank UAP’s anti-Labor ads for result’, ABC News Online, 19 May 2019, ‹www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/election-2019-clive-palmer-says-uap-ads-gave-coalition-win/11128160›, accessed 24 January 2020.
6Ben Smee, ‘Clive Palmer says he “decided to polarise electorate” with anti-Labor ads to ensure Coalition win’, 22 May 2019, ‹www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/22/clive-palmer-says-he-decided-to-polarise-electorate-with-anti-labor-ads-to-ensure-coalition-win›, accessed 24 January 2020.
7‘The 2019 Australian Federal Election: Results from the Australian Election Study’, 24.
8‘The 2019 Australian Federal Election: Results from the Australian Election Study’, 23.
9‘The 2019 Australian Federal Election: Results from the Australian Election Study’, 23.
10‘The 2019 Australian Federal Election: Results from the Australian Election Study’, 24.
11‘The 2019 Australian Federal Election: Results from the Australian Election Study’, 21.
12Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 74.
13Sarah Martin, ‘Coalition gave out $100 million in pre-election grants favouring targeted seats, audit office says’, Guardian, 14 January 2020, ‹www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/15/coalition-gave-out-100m-election-grants-not-assessed-merit›, accessed 13 February 2020; Paul Karp, ‘Sports rorts: almost half the projects funded were ineligible, audit office says’, Guardian, 13 February 2020, ‹www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/feb/13/sports-rorts-almost-half-projects-funded-ineligible-audit-office-says›, accessed 13 February 2020; Australian National Audit Office, ‘Award of funding under the Community Sport Infrastructure Program’, Performance Audit Report, Auditor-General Report No 23 of 2019–2020, Canberra, 15 January 2020, ‹www.anao.gov.au/work/performance-audit/award-funding-under-the-community-sport-infrastructure-program›, accessed 13 February 2020.
14Why Labor did not take pre-emptive action is one of life’s political mysteries, along with why Labor allowed Turnbull’s prime ministership to sail on regardless of his extensive personal use of foreign tax havens.
15Parliamentary Library, ‘Budget Review 2010–11: Taxation: Resource super profits tax’, Parliament of Australia, 2010, ‹www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/BudgetReview201011/TaxationRSPTax›, accessed 13 February 2020; Australia’s Future Tax System Review Panel, Australia’s Future Tax System: A Report to the Treasurer (Treasury of Australia: Canberra, 2010), ‹treasury.gov.au/review/the-australias-future-tax-system-review/final-report›, accessed 13 February 2020.
16Australia and New Zealand School of Government, ‘Undermining the Resources Super Profits Tax 2013-152.1’, Case Library, 1 November 2013, 5–6, ‹www.anzsog.edu.au/resource-library/case-library/undermining-the-resources-super-profits-tax-2013-152-1›, accessed 13 February 2020.
17‘Undermining the Resources Super Profits Tax 2013-152.1’, 7.
18‘Undermining the Resources Super Profits Tax 2013-152.1’, 8.
19‘Undermining the Resources Super Profits Tax 2013-152.1’.
20Angela Woollacott, Don Dunstan, Visionary Politician Who Changed Australia (Sydney: Allen & Unwin, 2019), 126–129 and 142–145.
9Be social
1Donald J Trump, Twitter, 11 November 2012, ‹twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/267286284182118400?lang=en›, accessed 24 January 2020.
2Gillian Tett, ‘It’s the data, stupid’, Financial Times (Asia edition), 11–12 January 2020: Life & Arts, 1–2.
3US Federal Election Commission, Federal Elections 2016: Election Results for the US President, the US Senate and the US House of Representatives (FEC: Washington DC, 2017), 5 and 12, ‹transition.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2016/federalelections2016.pdf›, accessed 24 January 2020.
4Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 78–80.
5Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The fight for a human future at the new frontier of power (Hachette: New York, 2019).
6As at second quarter 2019, ‘active’ defined as at least monthly use: @c_s_wallace tweet of Ragan Petrie presentation at the Tax & Transfer Policy Institute, Australian National University, Canberra, 29 October 2019, ‹twitter.com/c_s_wallace/status/1188996717204500480›, accessed 24 January 2020.
7Caryn Coatney, John Curtin: How he won over the media (Australian Scholarly: North Melbourne, 2016), 151.
8Kennedy-Nixon First Presidential Debate, 26 September 1960, John F Kennedy Library Foundation, ‹www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbrcRKqLSRw›, accessed 24 January 2020.
9‘How JFK’s Clever TV Strategies Helped Him Win the Election’, Smithsonian Channel, 15 July 2017, ‹www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMWQnoDA0o8›, accessed 24 January 2020; Jake Tapper, ‘In debates, appearances matter: Kennedy v Nixon’, 25 September 2016, ‹www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpIuO3P68q4›, accessed 24 January 2020.
10‘It’s Time’ ALP campaign ad 1972, ‹www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqMCZBjvmD4›, accessed 24 January 2020; Adrienne Parr, ‘Curator’s Notes – ALP: It’s Time’, National Film and Sound Archive, ‹www.nfsa.gov.au/collection/curated/alp-its-time›, accessed 24 January 2020; and Hansen-Rubensohn-McCann-Erickson, ‘It’s Time original Campaign Proposal’, July 1971, ‹www.flipsnack.com/Whitlam/it-s-time-original-campaign-proposal.html›, accessed 24 January 2020.
11Nick Dyrenfurth and Frank Bongiorno, A Little History of the Australian Labor Party (UNSW Press: Sydney, 2011), 133.
12116th Congress 1st Session Senate, Report 116–XX, ‘Report of the Select Committee on Intelligence on Russian Active Measures Campaigns and Interference in the 2016 US Election, Vol 2: Russia’s Use of Social Media With Additional Views’, October 2019, 1–5, ‹www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Report_Volume2.pdf›, accessed 24 January 2020.
13‘Report of the Select Committee on Intelligence on Russian Active Measures Campaigns and Interference in the 2016 US Election …’, 6.
14Carole Cadwalladr and Emma Graham-Harrison, ‘Revealed: 50 million Facebook profiles harvested for Cambridge Analytica in major data breach’, Guardian, 18 March 2018, ‹www.theguardian.com/news/2018/mar/17/cambridge-analytica-facebook-influence-us-election›, accessed 24 January 2020.
15Paul Lewis and Paul Hilder, ‘Leaked: Cambridge Analytica’s blueprint for Trump victory’, Guardian, 23 March 2018, ‹www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/23/leaked-cambridge-analyticas-blueprint-for-trump-victory›, accessed 24 January 2020.
16Philip N Howard and Samuel C Woolley (eds), Computational Propaganda: Political parties, politics, and political manipulation on social media (Oxford University Press: Oxford, 2018).
17Aatif Sulleyman, ‘Brexit: Pro-Leave Twitter-bots played “strategic role” in referendum result, says Oxford University study’, Independent, 21 June 2018, ‹www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/brexit-twitter-bots-pro-leave-eu-referendum-result-oxford-university-study-a7800786.html›, accessed 24 January 2020.
18Carole Cadwalladr, ‘Why Britain needs its own Mueller’, NYR Daily, New York Review of Books, 16 November 2018, ‹www.nybooks.com/daily/2018/11/16/why-britain-needs-its-own-mueller›, accessed 24 January 2020.
19Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 78.
20Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign, 78–79.
21Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign.
22‘It’s the data, stupid’, 1–2.
23‘It’s the data, stupid’, 2.
24Matthew Rosenberg, Nick Corasaniti, Sheera Frenkel and Nicole Perlroth, ‘Faulty Iowa app was part of push to restore Democrats’ digital edge’, New York Times, 4 February 2020, ‹www.nytimes.com/2020/02/04/us/politics/iowa-caucus-shadow-app.html›, accessed 13 February 2020.
Epilogue
1Labour Together, 2019 Election Review, ‹https://docs.labourtogether.uk/Labour%20Together%202019%20Election%20Review.pdf›, accessed 21 June 2020.
2David Runciman, How Democracy Ends (London: Profile, 2018), 215.
3McKay Coppins, ‘The Billion Dollar Disinformation Campaign to Reelect the President: How new technologies and techniques pioneered by dictators will shape the 2020 election’, The Atlantic, March 2020, ‹www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/03/the-2020-disinformation-war/605530/›, accessed 15 February 2020.
4Paolo Gerbaudo, The Digital Party: Political organisation and online democracy (Polity: London, 2019).
5Eleanor Margolis, ‘The Tories’ “Dave from Bolton” ad shows how well they understand social media’, Guardian, 8 February 2020, ‹www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/06/tories-dave-from-bolton-ad-social-media›, accessed 8 February 2020.
6‘Dave from Bolton’, Conservatives, YouTube, ‹www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=4&v=kzPwgpnUzoA&feature=emb_logo›, accessed 10 February 2020.
7Jeff Berardelli, ‘Arctic records its hottest temperature ever,’ CBS News, 20 June 2020, ‹https://www.cbsnews.com/news/arctic-records-its-hottest-temperature-ever-2020-06-20/›, accessed 21 June 2020.
8Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez @AOC tweet, 20 June 2020: Actually you just got ROCKED by teens on TikTok who flooded the Trump campaign w/fake ticket reservations & tricked you into believing a million people wanted your white supremacist open mic enough to pack an arena during COVID Shout out to Zoomers. Y’all make me so proud.’, ‹https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1274499021625794565›, accessed 21 June 2020; Steve Schmidt @SteveSchmidtSES tweet, 20 June 2020: ‘.@realDonaldTrump Tonight you sweated and snarled your way through what will be remembered as the “Emptysburgh Address.” The story of your dangerous shuffle down the ramp was pathetic. Tonight was a failure, just like your Presidency. America saw a small crowd looking at a loser’, ‹https://twitter.com/steveschmidtses/status/1274539633481670658?s=11›, accessed 21 June 2020.