Contents

Martin Rees

“Deep Time” and the Far Future

Far more time lies ahead than has elapsed up until now.

Marcelo Gleiser

We Are Unique

Modern science, traditionally considered guilty of reducing our existence to a pointless accident in an indifferent universe, is actually saying the opposite.

P.Z. Myers

The Mediocrity Principle

Everything that you as a human being consider cosmically important is an accident.

Sean Carroll

The Pointless Universe

Looking at the universe through our anthropocentric eyes, we can’t help but view things in terms of causes, purposes, and natural ways of being.

Samuel Arbesman

The Copernican Principle

We are not anywhere special.

J. Craig Venter

We Are Not Alone in the Universe

There is a humancentric, Earthcentric view of life that permeates most cultural and societal thinking.

Stewart Brand

Microbes Run the World

This biotech century will be microbe-enhanced and maybe microbe-inspired.

Richard Dawkins

The Double-Blind Control Experiment

Why do half of all Americans believe in ghosts, three-quarters believe in angels, a third believe in astrology, three-quarters believe in hell?

Max Tegmark

Promoting a Scientific Lifestyle

Our global scientific community has been nothing short of a spectacular failure when it comes to educating the public.

Roger Schank

Experimentation

Experimentation is something done by everyone all the time.

Timo Hannay

The Controlled Experiment

When required to make a decision, the instinctive response of most nonscientists is to introspect, or perhaps call a meeting.

Gino Segre

Gedankenexperiment

Consciously or unconsciously, we carry out gedankenexperiments of one sort or another in our everyday life.

Kathryn Schulz

The Pessimistic Meta-Induction from the History of Science

One generation’s verities . . . often become the next generation’s falsehoods.

Samuel Barondes

Each of Us Is Ordinary, Yet One of a Kind

This dual view of each of us, as both run-of-the-mill and special, has been so well established by biologists and behavioral scientists that it may now seem self-evident.

John Tooby

Nexus Causality, Moral Warfare, and Misattribution Arbitrage

Our self-evidently superior selves and in-groups are error-besotted.

David G. Myers

Self-Serving Bias

Compared with our average peer, most of us fancy ourselves as more intelligent, better-looking, less prejudiced, more ethical, healthier, and likely to live longer.

Gary Marcus

Cognitive Humility

Computer memory is much better than human memory because early computer scientists discovered a trick that evolution never did.

Douglas Rushkoff

Technologies Have Biases

Our widespread inability to recognize or even acknowledge the biases of the technologies we use renders us incapable of gaining any real agency through them.

Gerald Smallberg

Bias Is the Nose for the Story

Our brains evolved having to make the right bet with limited information.

Jonah Lehrer

Control Your Spotlight

Too often, we assume that willpower is about having strong moral fiber. But that’s wrong.

Daniel Kahneman

The Focusing Illusion

The mismatch in the allocation of attention between thinking about a life condition and actually living it is the cause of the focusing illusion.

Carlo Rovelli

The Uselessness of Certainty

The very foundation of science is to keep the door open to doubt.

Lawrence Krauss

Uncertainty

In the public parlance, uncertainty is a bad thing, implying a lack of rigor and predictability.

Aubrey de Grey

A Sense of Proportion About Fear of the Unknown

Fear of the unknown is not remotely irrational in principle . . . but it can be and generally is overdone.

Nigel Goldenfeld

Because

Complex systems, such as financial markets or the Earth’s biosphere, do not seem to obey causality.

Stuart Firestein

The Name Game

Even words that, like “gravity,” seem well settled may lend more of an aura to an idea than it deserves.

Seth Lloyd

Living Is Fatal

People are bad at probability on a deep, intuitive level.

Garrett Lisi

Uncalculated Risk

We are afraid of the wrong things, and we are making bad decisions.

Neil Gershenfeld

Truth Is a Model

Building models is . . . a never-ending process of discovery and refinement.

Jon Kleinberg

E Pluribus Unum

The challenge for a distributed system is to achieve this illusion of a single unified behavior in the face of so much underlying complexity.

Stefano Boeri

A Proxemics of Urban Sexuality

Even the warmest and most cohesive community can rapidly dissolve in the absence of erotic tension.

Kevin Kelly

Failure Liberates Success

Failure is not something to be avoided but something to be cultivated.

Nicholas A. Christakis

Holism

Holism takes a while to acquire and appreciate. It is a grown-up disposition.

Robert R. Provine

TANSTAAFL

“There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch” [is] a universal truth having broad and deep explanatory power in science and daily life.

Gerald Holton

Skeptical Empiricism

In politics and society at large, important decisions are all too often based on deeply held presuppositions.

Thomas A. Bass

Open Systems

Now that the Web has frothed through twenty years of chaotic inventiveness, we have to push back against the forces that would close it down.

George Church

Non-Inherent Inheritance

We are well into an unprecedented new phase of evolution, in which we must generalize beyond our DNA-centric worldview.

Paul Kedrosky

Shifting Baseline Syndrome

We don’t have enough data to know what is normal, so we convince ourselves that this is normal.

Martin Seligman

PERMA

The elements of well-being must be exclusive, measurable independently of one another, and—ideally—exhaustive.

Steven Pinker

Positive-Sum Games

In a positive-sum game, a rational, self-interested actor may benefit the other actor with the same choice that benefits himself or herself.

Roger Highfield

The Snuggle for Existence

Competition does not tell the whole story of biology.

Dylan Evans

The Law of Comparative Advantage

At a time of growing protectionism, it is more important than ever to reassert the value of free trade.

Jason Zweig

Structured Serendipity

Creativity can be enhanced deliberately through environmental variation.

Rudy Rucker

The World is Unpredictable

Even if the world is as deterministic as a computer program, you still can’t predict what you’re going to do.

Charles Seife

Randomness

Without an understanding of randomness, we are stuck in a perfectly predictable universe that simply doesn’t exist outside our heads.

Clifford Pickover

The Kaleidoscopic Discovery Engine

We are reluctant to believe that great discoveries are part of a discovery kaleidoscope and are mirrored in numerous individuals at once.

Rebecca Newberger Goldstein

Inference to the Best Explanation

Not all explanations are created equal.

Emanuel Derman

Pragmamorphism

Being pragmamorphic sounds equivalent to taking a scientific attitude toward the world, but it easily evolves into dull scientism.

Nicholas Carr

Cognitive Load

When our cognitive load exceeds the capacity of our working memory, our intellectual abilities take a hit.

Hans Ulrich Obrist

To Curate

In our phase of globalization . . . there is a danger of homogenization but at the same time a countermovement, the retreat into one’s own culture.

Richard Nisbett

“Graceful” SHAs

An assumption of educators for centuries has been that formal logic improves thinking skills. . . . But this belief may be mistaken.

Rob Kurzban

Externalities

The notion of externalities forces us to think about unintended (positive and negative) effects of actions, an issue that looms larger as the world gets smaller.

James O’Donnell

Everything Is in Motion

Remembering that everything is in motion—feverish, ceaseless, unbelievably rapid motion—is always hard for us.

Douglas T. Kenrick

Subselves and the Modular Mind

The only way we manage to accomplish anything in life is to allow only one subself to take the conscious driver’s seat at any given time.

Andy Clark

Predictive Coding

The brain exploits prediction and anticipation in making sense of incoming signals and using them to guide perception, thought, and action.

Donald Hoffman

Our Sensory Desktop

Our sensory experiences . . . can be thought of as sensory desktops that have evolved to guide adaptive behavior, not report objective truths.

Barry C. Smith

The Senses and the Multisensory

We now know that the senses do not operate in isolation but combine, both at early and late stages of processing, to produce our rich perceptual experiences of our surroundings.

David Eagleman

The Umwelt

Our brains are tuned to detect a shockingly small fraction of the surrounding reality.

Alison Gopnik

The Rational Unconscious

The idea of the rational unconscious has . . . transformed our scientific understanding of creatures whose rationality has traditionally been denied, such as young children and animals.

Adam Alter

We Are Blind to Much That Shapes Our Mental Life

Our brains are processing multitudes of information below the surface of conscious awareness.

W. Tecumseh Fitch

An Instinct to Learn

The antidote to “nature versus nurture” thinking is to recognize the existence, and importance, of “instincts to learn.”

Michael Shermer

Think Bottom Up, Not Top Down

Almost everything important that happens in both nature and society happens from the bottom up, not the top down.

Irene Pepperberg

Fixed-Action Patterns

The concept of a fixed-action pattern, despite its simplicity, may prove valuable as a metaphorical means to study and change human behavior.

Terrence Sejnowski

Powers of 10

Thinking in powers of 10 is such a basic skill that it ought to be taught along with integers in elementary school.

Juan Enriquez

Life Code

As we begin to rewrite existing life, strange things evolve.

Stephen M. Kosslyn

Constraint Satisfaction

When moving into a new house, my wife and I had to decide how to arrange the furniture in the bedroom.

Daniel C. Dennett

Cycles

The secret ingredient of improvement is always the same: practice, practice, practice.

Jennifer Jacquet

Keystone Consumers

A relative few can . . . ruin a resource for the rest of us.

Jaron Lanier

Cumulative Error

Our brains have unrealistic expectations of information transformation.

Dan Sperber

Cultural Attractors

In spite of variations, an Irish stew is an Irish stew, Little Red Riding Hood is Little Red Riding Hood, and a samba is a samba.

Giulio Boccaletti

Scale Analysis

It is through scale analysis that we can often make sense of complex nonlinear phenomena in terms of simpler models.

Frank Wilczek

Hidden Layers

Hidden layers embody in a concrete physical form the fashionable but rather vague and abstract idea of emergence.

Lisa Randall

“Science”

The theory that works might not be the ultimate truth, but it’s as close an approximation to the truth as you need.

Marcel Kinsbourne

The Expanding In-Group

The in-group-vs.-out-group double standard . . . could in theory be eliminated if everyone alive were considered to be in everyone else’s in-group.

Jonathan Haidt

Contingent Superorganisms

It is the most noble and the most terrifying human ability.

Clay Shirky

The Pareto Principle

We are still failing to predict it, even though it is everywhere.

William Calvin

Find That Frame

What has been cropped out of the frame can lead the unwary to an incorrect inference.

Jay Rosen

Wicked Problems

In the United States, rising health care costs are a classic case of a wicked problem. No “right” way to view it.

Daniel Goleman

Anthropocene Thinking

Beginning with cultivation and accelerating with the Industrial Revolution, our planet left the Holocene epoch and entered . . . the Anthropocene, in which human systems erode the natural systems that support life.

Alun Anderson

Homo dilatus

Cancun follows Copenhagen follows Kyoto, but the more we dither and no extraordinary disaster follows, the more dithering seems just fine.

Sam Harris

We Are Lost in Thought

Our relationship to our own thinking is strange to the point of paradox.

Thomas Metzinger

The Phenomenally Transparent Self-Model

A transparent self-model necessarily creates the realistic conscious experience of selfhood—of being directly and immediately in touch with oneself as a whole.

Sue Blackmore

Correlation Is Not a Cause

Understanding that a correlation is not a cause could raise levels of debate over some of today’s most pressing scientific issues.

David Darymple

Information Flow

Saying “A causes B” sounds precise but is actually very vague.

Lee Smolin

Thinking in Time Versus Thinking Outside of Time

Thinking outside of time often implies the existence of an imagined realm, outside the universe, where the truth lies.

Richard Foreman

Negative Capability Is a Profound Therapy

Mistakes, errors, false starts—accept them all.

Tor Nørretranders

Depth

It is not what is there but what used to be there that matters.

Helen Fisher

Temperament Dimensions

Temperament is . . . the foundation of who you are.

Geoffrey Miller

The Personality/Insanity Continuum

We are all more or less crazy in many ways.

Joel Gold

ARISE

Sometimes it takes a genius to see that a fifth-grade science experiment is all that is needed to solve a problem.

Matthew Ritchie

Systemic Equilibrium

Living on a single planet, we are all participants in a single physical system that has only one direction—toward systemic equilibrium.

Linda Stone

Projective Thinking

When we cling rigidly to our constructs . . . we can be blinded to what’s right in front of us.

V.S. Ramachandran

Anomalies and Paradigms

One can speak of reigning paradigms—what Kuhn calls normal science and what I cynically refer to as a mutual-admiration club trapped in a cul-de-sac of specialization.

David Gelernter

Recursive Structure

It helps us understand the connections between art and technology, helps us see the aesthetic principles that guide the best engineers and technologists and the ideas of clarity and elegance that underlie every kind of successful design.

Don Tapscott

Designing Your Mind

Want to strengthen your working memory and ability to multitask? Try reverse mentoring—learning with your teenager.

Andrian Kreye

Free Jazz

The 1960 session that gave the genre its name . . . was a precursor to a form of communication that has left linear conventions and entered the realm of multiple parallel interactions.

Matt Ridley

Collective Intelligence

Human achievement is based on collective intelligence—the nodes in the human neural network are people themselves.

Gerd Gigerenzer

Risk Literacy

Unlike basic literacy, risk literacy requires emotional rewiring—rejecting comforting paternalism and illusions of certainty and learning to take responsibility and to live with uncertainty.

Ross Anderson

Science Versus Theater

Modern societies waste billions on protective measures whose real aim is to reassure rather than to reduce risk.

Keith Devlin

The Base Rate

In cases where [an] event is dramatic and scary, like a terrorist attack on an airplane, failure to take account of the base rate can result in wasting massive amounts of effort and money trying to prevent something that is very unlikely.

Marti Hearst

Findex

Although some have written about information overload, data smog, and the like, my view has always been the more information online the better, as long as good search tools are available.

Susan Fiske

An Assertion Is Often an Empirical Question, Settled by Collecting Evidence

People’s stories are stories, and fiction keeps us going. But science should settle policy.

Gregory Paul

Scientists Should Be Scientists

Folks are prone to getting pet opinions into their heads and thinking they’re true to the point of obstinacy, even when they have little or no idea of what they’re talking about in the first place.

James Croak

Bricoleur

Currently, encompassing worldviews in philosophy have been shelved, and master art movements of style and conclusion folded alongside them; no more isms are being run up the flagpole, because no one is saluting.

Mark Henderson

Science’s Methods Aren’t Just for Science

Science as a method has great things to contribute to all sorts of pursuits beyond the laboratory.

Nick Bostrom

The Game of Life—and Looking for Generators

It’s a brilliant demonstration platform for several important concepts—a virtual “philosophy of science laboratory.”

Robert Sapolsky

Anecdotalism

Every good journalist knows its power.

Tom Standage

You Can Show That Something Is Definitely Dangerous but Not That It’s Definitely Safe

A wider understanding of the fact that you can’t prove a negative would, in my view, do a great deal to upgrade the public debate around science and technology.

Christine Finn

Absence and Evidence

Philosophically this is a challenging concept, but at an archaeological site all became clear in the painstaking tasks of digging, brushing, and troweling.

John McWhorter

Path Dependence

One may assume that cats cover their waste out of fastidiousness, when the same creature will happily consume its own vomit and then jump on your lap.

Scott D. Sampson

Interbeing

Each of us is far more akin to a whirlpool, a brief, ever-shifting concentration of energy in a vast river that has been flowing for billions of years.

Dimitar Sasselov

The Other

Astronomy and space science are intensifying the search for life on other planets. . . . The chances of success may hinge on our understanding of the possible diversity of the chemical basis of life itself.

Brian Eno

Ecology

We now increasingly view life as a profoundly complex weblike system with information running in all directions.

Stephon H. Alexander

Dualities

A duality allows us to describe a physical phenomenon from two different perspectives.

Amanda Gefter

Dualities

Dualities are as counterintuitive a notion as they come, but physics is riddled with them.

Anthony Aguirre

The Paradox

Nature appears to contradict itself with the utmost rarity, and so a paradox can be an opportunity for us to lay bare our cherished assumptions.

Eric Topol

Hunting for Root Cause: The Human “Black Box”

Each of us is gradually being morphed into an event-data recorder by virtue of our digital identity and presence on the Web.

David Rowan

Personal Data Mining

We need to [mine] our own output to extract patterns that turn our raw personal data stream into predictive, actionable information.

Satyajit Das

Parallelism in Art and Commerce

[Damien] Hirst was the artist of choice for conspicuously consuming hedge-fund managers, who were getting very rich.

Laurence C. Smith

Innovation

In the world of science, innovation stretches the mind to find an explanation when the universe wants to hold on to its secrets just a little longer.

Kevin Hand

The Gibbs Landscape

The systems we have designed and built are inefficient and incomplete in the utilization of energy to do the work of civilization’s ecosystems.

Vinod Khosla

Black Swan Technologies

Who would be crazy enough to have forecast in 2000 that by 2010 almost twice as many people in India would have access to cell phones as to latrines?

Gloria Origgi

Kakonomics

Kakonomics is the strange yet widespread preference for mediocre exchanges insofar as nobody complains about them.

Eric Weinstein

Kayfabe

It provides the most complete example of the process by which a wide class of important endeavors transition from failed reality to successful fakery.

Kai Krause

Einstein’s Blade in Ockham’s Razor

And there it was, the dancing interplay between simplex and complex that has fascinated me in so many forms.

Dave Winer

Heat-Seeking Missiles

Your weakness is attractive. Your space is up for grabs.

Marco Iacoboni

Entanglement

Entanglement feels like magic. . . . Yet [it] is a real phenomenon, measurable and reproducible in the lab.

Timothy Taylor

Technology Paved the Way for Humanity

Thinking through things and with things, and manipulating virtual things in our minds, is an essential part of critical self-consciousness.

Paul Saffo

Time Span of Discretion

We all have a natural time horizon we are comfortable with.

Tania Lombrozo

Defeasibility

Between blind faith and radical skepticism is a vast but sparsely populated space where defeasibility finds its home.

Richard Thaler

Aether

Aether variables are extremely common in my own field of economics.

Mark Pagel

Knowledge as a Hypothesis

There will always be some element of doubt about anything we come to “know” from our observations of the world.

Evgeny Morozov

The Einstellung Effect

Familiar solutions may not be optimal.

Eduardo Salcedo-Albarán

Homo sensus sapiens: The Animal That Feels and Reasons

We are the tension of the sensus and the sapiens.

Fiery Cushman

Understanding Confabulation

Automatic behaviors can be remarkably organized and even goal-driven.

David M. Buss

Sexual Selection

Research on human mating strategies has exploded over the past decade, as the profound implications of sexual selection become more deeply understood.

Bart Kosko

QED Moments

We can really only prove tautologies.

Richard Saul Wurman

Objects of Understanding and Communication

I want help flying through my waking dreams connecting the threads of these epiphanies.

Carl Zimmer

Life as a Side Effect

Everyone would do well to overcome that urge to see agents where there are none.

Gregory Cochran

The Veeck Effect

It occurs whenever someone adjusts the standards of evidence in order to favor a preferred outcome.

Joshua Greene

Supervenience!

A TOE won’t tell you anything interesting about Macbeth or the Boxer Rebellion.

Hazel Rose Markus and Alana Conner

The Culture Cycle

Just as there is no such thing as a culture without agents, there are no agents without culture.

Victoria Stodden

Phase Transitions and Scale Transitions

Our intuition regularly seems to break down with scale.

Brian Knutson

Replicability

Replication should be celebrated rather than denigrated.

Xeni Jardin

Ambient Memory and the Myth of Neutral Observation

Facts are more fluid than in the days of our grandfathers.

Diane F. Halpern

A Statistically Significant Difference in Understanding the Scientific Process

“Statistically significant difference” is a core concept in research and statistics, but . . . it is not an intuitive idea.

Beatrice Golomb

The Dece(i)bo Effect

Key presumptions regarding placebos and placebo effects are more typically wrong than not.

Andrew Revkin

Anthropophilia

More fully considering our nature . . . could help identify certain kinds of challenges that we know we’ll tend to get wrong.

Mahzarin R. Banaji

A Solution for Collapsed Thinking: Signal Detection Theory

Signal-detection theory . . . provides a mathematically rigorous framework for understanding the nature of decision processes.

David Pizarro

Everyday Apophenia

The pattern-detection responsible for so much of our species’ success can just as easily betray us.

Ernst Pöppel

A Cognitive Toolkit Full of Garbage

Because we are a victim of our biological past, and as a consequence a victim of ourselves, we end up with shabby SHAs, having left behind reality.