Dam it
* Raise a glass to world peace
* Draw up a draft for drought
* Net profit from a wet resource
There are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and the unerring ability of humans to make abundant resources scarce. Anyone looking for ways to unleash ecological Armageddon will appreciate the latter. Try removing access to water and see what happens. Analysis of half a millennium of human conflict – more than 8,000 wars – has concluded that water shortage is a profound trigger of upheaval. Experts identify 102 countries, together home to 3.7 billion people, where climate change and water-related crises could bubble over into violent conflict or instability. Depriving people of what they need, really need, gives you power.
Some 220 of the world’s major rivers flow through more than one country. Each offers a sublime dynamic for possible conflict. If the upstream state withholds its supply, people further down are gonna get tetchy. The planet is running out of water at a rate that, some believe, will soon make it the most valuable commodity on earth. Water is emerging as the biggest single security issue in the world. Welcome to the era of ‘hydro-nationalism’. Water will be to the twenty-first century what oil was to the twentieth.
Just down from the temples of Karnak, locals sat staring at the eddying waters of the Nile. They had seen it low before, but this was getting ludicrous. Elsewhere, among the teeming streets of Cairo, the mood was fraught as the city coped with fresh rioting over high water prices. Without the Nile, Egypt would be finished. Upstream, Ethiopia was saying precisely the same thing. Yet, although Ethiopia owns the source of the Blue Nile, they aren’t allowed to touch it. Not a pint-pot. 85 per cent of the water in Africa’s greatest river surges from its soil, and all they can do is watch it ebb away into the arms of their angry neighbour. Only the truly perverse could have cooked up this little number. Britain of course. The Nile might meander through ten African countries but, almost eighty years ago, your colonial brothers had the foresight to broker a deal that, in your hands, will lead to one mighty scrap.
So, here is how it stands. Egypt wants to build new towns in the desert to sate a booming population. For this it desperately craves more water. Ethiopia desperately craves more water to stop its people dying of thirst. It is time for you to ‘help’. Using a private company you must come to the assistance of the Ethiopian people. Discreetly, you will construct a massive dam using plans already prepared by the Ethiopian government. The dam will be sited just below Lake Tana in the Ethiopian highlands and very near to the river’s source. Care must be taken to ensure that the construction cannot be spotted from the air; bank loans and aid must be carefully diverted to fund the project, but the investment will be well worth it. With the dam in place, the hand is on the tap, braced for the signal to turn it off.
Overnight, the Nile will cease flowing through Egypt and Sudan. Billions of tonnes of water will back up behind the dam, forming one of the greatest lakes in eastern Africa. Ethiopia’s 60,000-strong army will be deployed to its border. War will come quickly. Cairo makes no secret of the fact that any attempt to alter the Nile’s status would be interpreted as an act of war. President Anwar Sadat could hardly have been more explicit when signing the 1979 peace accord with Israel, stating that his country would never go to war again except to protect its water resources.
In the aftermath of the dam, skirmishes soon erupt on the south-eastern Sudanese border, as troops attempt to invade Ethiopia. Meanwhile, in the north, frenetic fighting breaks out near Lake Nasser as Egyptian infantry attempt to head south through Sudan to reach the battlezone. Air strikes from Cairo engulf Ethiopia. Tanzania comes to Ethiopia’s aid. Uganda gets involved. Kenya has a pop. Gradually, a chain reaction of violence ripples along the entire length of the Nile. By 2012, much of Africa is embroiled in its most vicious war yet.
Not too far from Ethiopia, a corner of Sudan already offers a classic model for how water shortages can neatly cause conflict. A savvy combination of low rainfall and the advancing Sahara desert is blamed by many as the true genesis of the Darfur conflict. Many are in dire need of water but lack the billions of pounds required to build the infrastructure to transport and treat it. In your hands, water will become a recognized instrument of social control, as you cartelize access to man’s most essential commodity. Act now. Soon everyone will be wanting a slice of the watery profits.
Of the many firms looking to control the world’s water, only a few seem worthy of consideration. Lancashire-based Biwater might be intrigued by the Lake Tana project. Tanzania is among the ninety countries the water giant has been involved with. Britain’s natty little archaic agreement with Egypt means that Tanzania is forbidden from doing anything that might affect the flow of the Nile. Consequently, the UK government backed Biwater to deliver clean water for Tanzania. For its goodwill, Biwater was set to make millions. But within two years, Tanzania’s government cancelled the deal. The charge sheet of allegations was spectacular. No new domestic pipework had been installed, promised investment had stalled and water quality had declined. Biwater forcibly denied the claims and bit back, claiming that they had been misled from the start by Tanzania’s water authorities. Obviously, with such experience, Biwater should remain in your thoughts.
Ideally, investment should be placed in companies with poor maintenance records and atrocious leakage rates. Similarly, those that manage to merge generous leakage rates with shameless profits should also be viewed accordingly. In this respect, Britain yields another two possible contenders. Thames Water (leakage: 894 million litres a day: profits £350 million) is looking to expand overseas. Severn Trent Water (leakage: 525 million litres a day: profits £150 million) is no slouch either.
Of course, not everyone has money to fritter on water companies. But we can all do our bit. Pass a toilet, any toilet, and flush it. In one gush, the amount an African uses in an entire day for drinking, cooking, and washing will satisfactorily gurgle into the innards of the sewage system. Take a long, long shower. Better still, a bath. Take a two-week holiday, leaving the garden sprinklers on to ensure the lawn doesn’t suffer in your absence.
In total, Britons consume a hundred times their weight in water every day. Make it two hundred. A thousand. Of course, you don’t drink the stuff – not since they started to bottle it – but there’s no excuse not to try and eat it. A modest 50-gram bag of salad from Africa requires almost 50 litres of water to produce. This ‘virtual’ water trade is a neat way of plundering H2O. Water is covertly stolen from where it is most precious. The perfect crime.
Recently, though, worrying signs have emerged that world leaders may be cottoning on to the psychotic behaviour produced in those who have no water. The issue has been raised at the top table of the UN security council. An internal Pentagon report confirms that dwindling resources will trigger ‘offensive aggression’. Defence and environment ministers, meanwhile, concur that armed forces must start preparing for the inevitable round of ‘water wars’.
For all that, you must remain grateful that there are still no internationally agreed rules on how nations should share rivers. Almost immediately after Labour regained power, more than ten years ago, a disturbing moment surfaced when the party publicly noted the potential for water conflict. In 1997, Labour sponsored a Watercourses Convention at the UN which, had it gone ahead, would have vastly reduced the prospect of future conflict. With remarkable prescience, though, they never bothered ratifying the convention in parliament. Recently, the then international development secretary Hilary Benn decided to explain what took place in parliament: ‘We do not believe that any potential domestic benefits justify the resources that would be required.’ Benn, the softly spoken child of firebrand father Tony, effectively told his colleagues to go ahead and f**k the planet. World peace, access to water, and ecological breakdown should never – and could never – be described as domestic concerns, said Hilary. Proof, again, that you can always count on the most unlikely of allies.
The non-clarity of international law is a cause for celebration. The level of potential for further conflicts remains reassuringly high. It will only get better. India’s demand for water will exceed supply by 2020. In China, 550 of the 600 largest cities are running short. A world split between those who have water and those who don’t is edging ever closer. Uganda’s president Yoweri Museveni describes rising emissions as an ‘act of aggression’ by the rich nations against the poor. Well, come on then, Museveni. We’re waiting. Museveni seems desperate to be remembered for his naivety. He once wanted Uganda to be powered by clean energy. Indeed, four-fifths of his country’s energy once came from hydroelectric power, but now there is a drought. There is no water behind his vast dams. Poor Museveni, persecuted for his well-intentioned folly. In Egypt, where Moses once received the ten commandments, they wait for war. The rest of the continent waits for a biblical deluge. They wait in vain.
* By 2014, there are seven wars involving water shortages, each making Darfur look like a playground spat. Probable.
* The UN shelves targets to solve global water shortage. Two years later, people without safe drinking water climbs to 1.5 billion. Likely.
* Despite environmental pressure, Western Europe increases water use per head to around 160 litres a day. Bottled-water sales increase. Certainty.
* Ethiopia unveils plan to build dam on Blue Nile. Within two hours, Egypt launches air strikes on Addis Ababa. Tenable.
* In 2012 head of UN describes the threat of terrorism as far inferior to the security concerns from water shortages. The following month, Britons use a record 160 litres each. Another good year for power shower manufacturers. Maybe.
Likelihood of water conflicts by 2012: 84%