Decision Tips
Become a skeptic.
Most of our so-called reasoning consists in finding arguments for going on believing as we already do.
—J. H. Robinson
Mike Delaney is a fitness nut. Now 48 years old, he has been working out regularly since he was in his late teens. In a typical week, Mike will spend two hours a day, three days a week, lifting weights at his health club. In addition, he runs an average of 35 miles a week. He occasionally breaks up his routine with workouts on a stair climber or putting in an hour on a rowing machine.
In recent months, Mike has been plagued by a number of aches and pains—a lot more than usual. His knees ache, his Achilles’ tendons are sore, and his lower back is bothering him. He called his regular doctor, who recommended he see a sports medicine specialist. After a thorough exam, the specialist told Mike to cut back on his training. “You’re too old to be training this hard. Your body can’t take the abuse like it used to. You don’t need to workout more than 30 to 45 minutes a day to stay in good health.”
Although Mike is annoyed and pained by his injuries, does he follow the doctor’s advice and cut back on his training? No. Mike says, “If you don’t use it, you lose it. I’ve read where the health benefits of training require intense workouts. My aches and pains are only temporary. I can train through them. If I were to cut back on my training, I’d lose all the work I’ve done, and my fitness level would just begin to deteriorate.”
Mike is suffering from the confirmation bias. He is ignoring information he doesn’t want to hear and giving greater weight to information that supports his preconceived views.
The rational decision-making process assumes that we objectively gather information. But we don’t. As noted in the previous chapter, we selectively gather information. The confirmation bias represents a specific case of selective perception. We seek out information that reaffirms our past choices, and we discount information that contradicts past judgments.1 We also tend to accept at face value information that confirms our preconceived views, while being critical and skeptical of information that challenges these views. Therefore, the information we gather is typically biased toward supporting views we already hold. This confirmation bias influences where we go to collect evidence because we tend to seek out places that are more likely to tell us what we want to hear. It also leads us to give too much weight to supporting information and too little to contradictory information.
The confirmation bias influences where we go to collect evidence because we tend to seek out places that are more likely to tell us what we want to hear.
Why do we tend to seek out evidence that supports our current beliefs and dismiss evidence that challenges them? One explanation is consistency.2 As noted in previous chapters, rational decision making needs to be perceived as consistent. And we can increase our consistency by staying the course and ignoring information that might suggest that our course is wrong. Another explanation is that confirming evidence acts as a reward and is more reinforcing. We tend to be more engaged by things we like than things we don’t. And confirming evidence rewards us by saying we’re on the right track, while disconfirming evidence implies we’re not as smart as we think we are.3 A third explanation is that it reduces conflict and complexity. Life and decision making are simpler if we can minimize our exposure to data that challenges the neat, consistent, and uncomplicated world we’ve created in our heads.4
We see the confirmation bias in an array of decisions. For instance, in our dating years, it shapes our relationships when we ignore information that suggests that someone might not be a good match for us. It clouds our career decisions when we stay with a job that limits the use of our talents or when we miss out on new job opportunities because we focus on the pluses of our current job. And it taints our investment decisions when we ignore information that tells us our current investment strategy isn’t working.
Unfortunately, the evidence suggests that the confirmation bias is hard to overcome.5 The obvious solution—to aggressively search out contrary or disconfirming information—is difficult for people to actually do. Even when individuals are given extensive instructions stressing the value of disconfirming evidence, it seems to have only modest effects on their judgments. So what can you do? My best advice is to begin by being honest about your motives.6 Are you seriously trying to get information to make an informed decision, or are you just looking for evidence to confirm what you’d like to do? If you’re serious about this, then you need to purposely seek out disconfirming information. That means you need to be prepared to hear what you don’t want to hear. You’ll also need to practice skepticism until it becomes habitual. You have to train yourself to consistently challenge your favored beliefs. In the same way that a defense attorney seeks contradictory evidence to disprove a plaintiff’s case, you have to think of reasons why your beliefs might be wrong and then aggressively seek out evidence that might prove them to be so.
Become a skeptic.
Actively look for information that disconfirms your beliefs.
Consider reasons why your beliefs might be wrong and try to prove them so.