Index

A

abundance of options, 145-148

accepting responsibility, 109

active inaction, 129-132

adaptation bias, 111-113

example, 111-112

explained, 112

overcoming, 112-113

“agony of defeat,” 112

Allan, Paul, 163

alternatives

evaluating, 9, 12

generating, 9, 102

testing against goals, 123-124

Amazon, 131

anchoring effect

example, 63

explained, 63-65

overcoming, 65-66

Are You a Maximizer or Satisficer? questionnaire, 27-28

Are You a Risk Taker? questionnaire, 23-26

arrogance, 162-164

assessing

decision criteria, 8, 12

decision styles, 19-21

emotional control, 39-41

impulsiveness, 35-37

locus of control, 29-30

maximizers versus satisficers, 27-28

overconfidence, 43-44

personality profile, 45-47

problems, 8

procrastination, 33-34

risk taking, 23-26

ATP Oil & Gas, 54

attributions, 108

automatic “action” strategies, 57

availability bias, 79-82

example, 79-80

explained, 80-81

overcoming, 81-82

aversion to risk, 153-155

B

barriers to rational decision process, 11-15

Berenson, B., 95

Berra, Yogi, 171

biases and errors, 13

adaptation bias, 111-113

example, 111-112

explained, 112

overcoming, 112-113

availability bias, 79-82

example, 79-80

explained, 80-81

overcoming, 81-82

confirmation bias, 71-73, 174-175

example, 71-72

explained, 72-73

overcoming, 73

emotional involvement error, 103-106

emotional cascades, 105

example, 103-104

explained, 104-105

negative emotions, 105

overcoming, 105-106

false cause-effect relations, 175

familiarity bias, 91-93

examples, 91-92

explained, 92-93

overcoming, 93

framing bias, 75-78

example, 75

explained, 76-77

overcoming, 77-78

hindsight bias, 115-117, 174-175

explained, 115-116

overcoming, 117

imaginary patterns, 87-89

immediate gratification bias, 59-62

inertia bias. See procrastination

initial values, 66

limited search error, 99-102

example, 99-100

explained, 100-102

reducing, 102

representation bias, 83-86

example, 83

explained, 83-86

overcoming, 86

regression to the mean, 84-85

sample sizes, 85-86

selective perception bias, 67-70

example, 67-68

explained, 68-69

overcoming, 69-70

self-serving bias, 107-110

example, 107-108

explained, 108-109

overcoming, 109

sunk costs, 95-97

example, 95

explained, 95-97

ignoring, 97

Billings, J., 51

Borders, 131

bounded rationality, 99-102

Branson, Richard, 4

Buffett, Warren, 4, 91

C

calculated risks, 153-155

Cantril, H., 75

Capote, T., 79

cause-effect relations, 162, 175

challenged frames, 77-78

chance, 87-89

change, embracing, 155

Chesterton, G. K., 67

choices, limiting, 145-148

chronic indecision, 55-56

Clark, Shawna, 69

Clinton, Bill, 116

cognitive bias. See biases and errors

collectivism, 167

complexity of problems, 12

confirmation bias, 71-73, 174-175

example, 71-72

explained, 72-73

overcoming, 73

conflict, 123

consequences of decisions, 133-135

considering decisions in context, 133-135

constraints, 12, 57

context, 133-135

control

emotional control

assessing, 39-41

developing, 105-106

emotional cascades, 105

emotional involvement error, 103-106

explained, 41

negative emotions, 41, 105

regret, 149-152

locus of control

assessing, 29-30

explained, 31

Cooper, Carl, 141

costs

cost of doing nothing, 173-174

sunk costs, 95-97

criteria. See decision criteria

critical decisions, identifying, 137-140

cultural differences, 165-168

D

Davis, Ray, 103

Decca Recording Company, 51

decision criteria

identifying, 8, 12

weighting, 9, 12

decision making, 171

anchoring effect

example, 63

explained, 63-65

overcoming, 65-66

biases and errors

availability bias, 79-82

confirmation bias, 71-73, 174-175

emotional involvement error, 103-106

false cause-effect relations, 175

familiarity bias, 91-93

framing bias, 75-78

hindsight bias, 115-117, 174-175

immediate gratification bias, 59-62

inertia bias. See procrastination

initial values, 66

limited search error, 99-102

representation bias, 83-86

selective perception bias, 67-70

self-serving bias, 107-110

sunk costs, 95-97

considering decisions in context, 133-135

cost of doing nothing, 173-174

cultural differences, 165-168

decision styles

assessing, 19-21

explained, 21

intuitive decision style, 21

rational decision style, 21

emotional control

assessing, 39-41

explained, 41

negative emotions, 41

experience, 161-164

goals, 121-124, 172

“good enough” choices, 14-15

hindsight bias, 174-175

imaginary patterns and superstitions, 87-89

immediate gratification bias, 59-62

impact on life, 3-5

importance test, 137-140

improving, 5, 171-172

impulsiveness

assessing, 35-37

causes, 60-61

emotional intelligence (EI), 60

example, 59

explained, 37

overcoming, 61-62

information overload, 141-143

limiting options, 145-148

locus of control

assessing, 29-30

explained, 31

lowering expectations, 147

maximizers versus satisficers, 147

assessing, 27-28

explained, 28

mistakes, 157-159

nondecision decision, 129-132

outcomes, lack of control over, 5

outsider’s perspective, 175

overconfidence, 162-164

assessing, 43-44

causes, 53

explained, 44

famous examples, 51

limiting, 53-54

personality profile, 45-47

procrastination

assessing, 33-34

causes, 56

explained, 34, 55-56

overcoming, 56-58

rational decision process, 7-10

advantages of, 8

barriers to, 11-15

example, 7-8

managing irrationality, 14

non-rational scenarios, 9-10

steps, 8-9

summary, 173

regret, 149-152

rehashing past decisions, 149-152

risk taking, 153-155, 157-159, 167

assessing, 23-26

cultural differences, 167

explained, 26

mistakes, 157-159

value of, 176

status quo, maintaining, 125-127, 129-132

decision making biases and errors adaptation bias, 111-113

decision styles

assessing, 19-21

explained, 21

intuitive decision style, 21

rational decision style, 21

Delaney, Mike, 71-72

delay in feedback, 162

Detroit Automobile Company, 157

developing emotional control, 105-106

Digital Equipment Co., 51

Disney, Walt, 157

doing nothing, 125-127, 129-132

Dr. Seuss, 157

Drucker, Peter, 141

Dyson, James, 157

E

EI (emotional intelligence), 60

Einstein, Albert, 21, 99

embracing change, 155

emotional cascades, 105

emotional control

assessing, 39-41

developing, 105-106

emotional cascades, 105

emotional involvement error

example, 103-104

explained, 104-105

overcoming, 105-106

explained, 41

negative emotions, 41, 105

regret, 149-152

emotional intelligence (EI), 60

emotional involvement error, 103-106

emotional cascades, 105

example, 103-104

explained, 104-105

negative emotions, 105

overcoming, 105-106

errors. See biases and errors

evaluating alternatives, 9, 12

expectations, lowering, 147

experience, overreliance on, 13, 161-164

external locus of control, 30

F

false cause-effect relations, 175

falsifying frames, 78

familiarity bias, 91-93

examples, 91-92

explained, 92-93

overcoming, 93

feedback, delay in, 162

feeling decision style, 21

Fisher, Irving, 51

Ford, Henry, 157

Ford Motor Company, 157

framing bias, 75-78

example, 75

explained, 76-77

overcoming, 77-78

G

Gabel, M., 125

Gates, Bill, 21

Geffen, D., 111

Geisel, Theodor, 157

generating alternatives, 9

goals, 121-124, 172

“good enough” choices, 14-15

Gorbachev, Mikhail, 21

Gretzky, Wayne, 153

H

Hernandez, Julie, 149

high risk-takers, 26, 153-155

hindsight bias, 115-117, 174-175

example, 115-116

explained, 115-116

overcoming, 117

Hubbard, E. G., 157

I

Iacocca, Lee, 137

identifying important decisions, 137-140

ignoring. See overcoming

imaginary patterns, 87-89

immediate gratification bias, 59-62

impact of decisions, 3-5

importance of decision making, 3-5

importance test, 137-140

impulsiveness, 13

assessing, 35-37

causes, 60-61

emotional intelligence (EI), 60

emotional involvement error, 103-106

emotional cascades, 105

example, 103-104

explained, 104-105

negative emotions, 105

overcoming, 105-106

example, 59

explained, 37

overcoming, 61-62

inaction, 125-127, 129-132

incorrect attributions, 108

indecision, chronic, 55-56

individualism, 167

inertia bias. See procrastination

information overload, 141-143

interconnection between decisions, 133-135

internal locus of control, 30

intuitive decision style, 21

irrationality, managing, 14

J-K

Jordan, Michael, 157

Kindle, 131

Kissinger, Henry, 121

Kmart, 131

L

Lair, J., 45

learning from past, 13

life-changing decisions, identifying, 137-140

limited search error, 99-102

example, 99-100

explained, 100-102

reducing, 102

limiting options, 145-148

links between decisions, 133-135

locus of control

assessing, 29-30

explained, 31

Lovecraft, H. P., 91

lowering expectations, 147

low-risk seekers, 26, 153-155

Lucci, Todd, 99

Lynch, Peter, 91

M

maintaining status quo, 125-127, 129-132

managing irrationality, 14

Manning, Peyton, 4

Marx, Groucho, 83

maximizers versus satisficers, 147

assessing, 27-28

explained, 28

mean, regression to, 84-85

media sensationalism, 79-80

memory, selective, 13

minimizing regret, 149-152

mistakes, 157-159, 176

Moore, Dee, 121

N

National Rifle Association (NRA), 77

negative emotions, 41, 105

neutral parties, input from, 175

9/11 attacks, 11

nondecision decision, 129-132

non-rational scenarios, 9-10

Norris, Sean, 7-8

NRA (National Rifle Association), 77

O

Obama, Barack, 134

obsessing on past decisions, 149-152

Olson, Ken, 51

outcomes, lack of control over, 5

outsider’s perspective, 175

overabundance of options, 145-148

overcoming

anchoring effect, 65-66

availability bias, 81-82

confirmation bias, 73

emotional involvement error, 105-106

familiarity bias, 93

framing bias, 77-78

hindsight bias, 117

impulsiveness, 61-62

limited search error, 102

overconfidence, 53-54

procrastination, 56-58

regret, 149-152

representation bias, 86

selective perception bias, 69-70

self-serving bias, 109

sunk costs, 97

superstitions, 88-89

overcoming adaptation bias, 112-113

overconfidence, 13, 162-164

assessing, 43-44

causes, 53

explained, 44

famous examples, 51

limiting, 53-54

overreliance on experience, 13

P

passive inaction, 129-132

past decisions, revisiting, 149-152

patterns, imaginary, 87-89

perceptions, selective perception bias, 67-70

perfectionism, 158-159

personality factors

decision styles

assessing, 19-21

explained, 21

emotional control

assessing, 39-41

explained, 41

impulsiveness

assessing, 35-37

causes, 60-61

emotional intelligence (EI), 60

example, 59

explained, 37

overcoming, 61-62

knowing your personality tendencies, 174

locus of control

assessing, 29-30

explained, 31

maximizers versus satisficers, 147

assessing, 27-28

explained, 28

overconfidence, 162-164

assessing, 43-44

causes, 53

explained, 44

famous examples, 51

limiting, 53-54

personality profile, 45-47

procrastination

assessing, 33-34

causes, 56

explained, 34, 55-56

overcoming, 56-58

risk taking, 153-155

assessing, 23-26

cultural differences, 167

explained, 26

mistakes, 157-159

personality profile, 45-47

Pickens, T. Boone, 163

planning ahead, 13, 121-124

postdecision regret, 149-152

priorities, assessing, 123

problems

complexity of, 12

identifying, 8

procrastination

assessing, 33-34

causes, 56

explained, 34, 55-56

overcoming, 56-58

profiles (personality), 45-47

Q

questionnaires

Are You a Maximizer or Satisficer?, 27-28

Are You a Risk Taker?, 23-26

Are You Impulsive?, 35-37

Are You Overconfident?, 43-44

Can You Control Your Emotions?, 39-41

Do You Procrastinate?, 33-34

What’s Your Decision Style?, 19-20

Who Controls Your Destiny?, 29

R

Rand, Ayn, 21

Randall, Brion, 107-108

Randall, Chuck, 55

randomness, 87-89

rational decision process, 7-10

advantages of, 8

barriers to, 11-15

biases and errors, 13

unrealistic assumptions, 12

bounded rationality, 99-102

example, 7-8

goals, 121-124

managing irrationality, 14

non-rational scenarios, 9-10

steps, 8-9

summary, 173

rational decision style, 21

rationality

barriers to, 11-15

biases and errors, 13

unrealistic assumptions, 12

rational decision process, 7-10

reducing limited search error, 102

Reed, Chris, 165-166

reframing problems, 77-78

regression to the mean, 84-85

regret, 149-152

rehashing past decisions, 149-152

reinforcement theory, 158

representation bias, 83-86

example, 83

explained, 83-86

overcoming, 86

regression to the mean, 84-85

sample sizes, 85-86

responsibility, accepting, 109

revisiting past decisions, 149-152

risk taking, 153-155

assessing, 23-26

cultural differences, 167

explained, 26

mistakes, 157-159

value of, 176

Robbins, S., 145

Robinson, J. H., 71

Rogers, Will, 55

Roosevelt, Eleanor, 21

S

sample sizes, 85-86

Sanders, Harland, 157

Satie, E., 87

satisfactory (“good enough”) choices, 14-15

satisficers versus maximizers, 147

assessing, 27-28

explained, 28

Schulz, Charles, 129

Schweitzer, Albert, 21

scoring

decision style questionnaire, 20

emotional control questionnaire, 40-41

impulsiveness questionnaire, 36-37

locus of control questionnaire, 30

maximizer/satisficer questionnaire, 27-28

overconfidence questionnaire, 43-44

procrastination questionnaire, 34

risk-taking questionnaire, 26

Sears, 131

Segal, Nancy, 95

selective memory, 13

selective perception bias, 67-70

example, 67-68

explained, 68-69

overcoming, 69-70

self-serving bias, 107-110

example, 107-108

explained, 108-109

overcoming, 109

sensationalism in media, 79-80

September eleventh attacks, 11

setting goals, 121-124

shaping life via decisions, 3-5

size of samples, 85-86

skepticism, 73

slowing down pleasurable activities, 112-113

speeding up unpleasant activities, 112-113

Spielberg, Steven, 4

status quo

cost of doing nothing, 173-174

maintaining, 125-127, 129-132

streams of decisions, 133-135

sunk costs, 95-97

example, 95

explained, 95-97

ignoring, 97

superstitions, 88-89

T

taking risk. See risk taking

Tang, Cindy, 129

thinking decision style, 21

“thrill of victory,” 112

Truman, Harry, 149

Twain, Mark, 7

U-V

unrealistic assumptions, 12

upfront commitments, 57

values, assessing, 123

voluntary constraints, 57

Vulcan Capital, 163

W-X-Y-Z

Walker, Maria, 107-108

Walmart, 131

weighting decision criteria, 9, 12

Weiner, Sheri, 59

What’s Your Decision Style? questionnaire, 19-20

Wilde, Oscar, 161

Wilder, T., 3

Wilson, I. E., 133

Winfrey, Oprah, 4, 157