Democrats lost a meaningful fraction of their male base after 1980 because they were perceived to be weak on national security. They reinforced this impression over and over, squandering the Democratic foreign and military policy legacies of FDR, Truman, and JFK. They now have an enormous opportunity, as both a moral and a political force, to take back the high ground on defense, security, and terrorism—to mount a ringing, Kennedy- and Reaganesque defense of America’s role as a force for good in the world. Part of the referendum on Donald Trump is to show where the grubby rhetoric of the United States as a transactional, mercenary force leads, and how a man fueled by profound ignorance, low biases, irresistible impulses, and obvious weaknesses for praise and money put America at risk in an unstable world.
Even in the first term, the indictment is powerful. Trump has given the Democratic nominee a perfect opportunity to reclaim the mantle of being the national security grown-up in the room. He’s a foreign policy failure and a constant danger to national security. The case makes itself: From Putin to North Korea to Iran to ISIS to Saudi Arabia to NATO, Trump turned U.S. foreign policy into a pay-to-play humiliation, coupled with a juvenile, shit-talking style that sounds more like something from a third-world, beret-wearing caudillo from the 1970s.
We’re suffering from diminished credibility, influence, and security in the world, and the knock-on effects of this era will ripple out for decades, building a series of problems that will haunt our diplomats and damage our interests. America’s foreign and military policy inflection points are marked by big, transformative moments and small mistakes that mushroom into slow-burn conflicts we can’t quite win but don’t quite lose.
Trump’s endless self-aggrandizement as the Greatest Negotiator in the History of Mankind™, a human quantum computer of deal-making prowess that would break the wills, hearts, and backs of our trading competitors, military rivals, and players on the global stage turned out to be the largest nothingburger in the history of dealmaking. At this point, I wouldn’t trust Donald Trump to negotiate for a 1999 Hyundai at a used-car lot, and no one else who’s watched him over the last two and a half years would either.
On trade, every single deal that Trump promised would be quick, easy, and immediately profitable has been a flop. The rebranded NAFTA is still NAFTA. The trade war with China has left the Xi government in a stronger position than ever, while devastating Midwest farms and industries. Trump’s trade record is one long on bluster and higher costs for Americans, followed by concessions to the ostensible targets of his policy.
On foreign relations, from NATO to the Baltics to South America to the Persian Gulf, Trump has left allies wondering at the source of his affection for their enemies and his animus toward their leaders. From the Helsinki debacle in which Trump sided with the Russian leader over his own intelligence services4 to the weakening of NATO to Russia’s conflict with Ukraine, Trump has been outstanding as Vladimir Putin’s lapdog. He treats journalist-murdering Saudi Arabian rising-star Mohammed bin Salman with kid gloves, including providing U.S. intelligence and firepower for the Saudi war against Yemen.5 Far from making America safer, the president has left even our most loyal friends in doubt about our intention to honor our commitments abroad. He’s cast us as a pay-to-play mercenary force and has divorced us from the international priorities that once defined American power in the world.
We once were a beacon of freedom and liberation for the oppressed and those held in tyranny. A long line of presidents from both parties held that America plays a unique role in the world as a trusted defender of freedom, a model for other nations. But Trump’s America is transactional. With Trump, it’s “Fuck you, pay me.”
In July 2019, diplomatic cables sent by the British ambassador to the United States, Kim Darroch, were leaked, resulting in his resignation. In the leaked emails, Darroch stated the unvarnished truth about Donald Trump: “We don’t really believe this administration is going to become substantially more normal; less dysfunctional; less unpredictable; less faction-riven; less diplomatically clumsy and inept.” The ambassador described Trump and his team as “uniquely dysfunctional” and noted the deep divisions and internecine warfare inside the White House. He predicted the Trump presidency could “crash and burn” and “end in disgrace.” Remember, these are the observations of an ally.6
What does four more years of the Trump Doctrine look like on the world stage?
Best case? A diminished America. Worst case? Cleansing sea of radioactive fire.
Global economic downturns often lead nations to do stupid shit on the world stage and at home. The Great Depression is only the best-known example of this, but the pattern repeats, and with the global economy riding the brakes since the fall of 2019, our chances of economic conflicts erupting into international conflicts are rising fast. Add in the disruptive nature of Trump’s trade war with China and the deliberate destruction of generational alliances, and Trump will be uniquely remembered as a president whose policies weakened the nation at every turn. His fool’s luck has been that—so far—we have avoided the horror of a terrorist attack, a hot military confrontation, or some other foreign policy externality. Luck, however, is not a national security strategy, and luck famously and consistently runs out.
Our overseas partners’ confidence in America’s national security and intelligence community is severely damaged; they know Donald Trump’s hatred for the IC, and they know he is filling its leadership ranks with his toadies. An unsung story of American foreign policy success that was built on a foundation of quiet work by intelligence professionals working with our allies has fallen apart and will degrade further under Donald Trump in his second term.
Our close alliances are strained as never before. A frazzled NATO feels the eager heat of Russia’s breath in the east, with the Baltic states, Poland, and Germany wondering if we’re about to see a new Cold War, only this time with the United States more friendly to Russia than to the West. America’s role as a NATO ally will continue to degrade as Trump’s bromance with Putin, his extortion of the allies, and his utter ignorance of the traditions and meaning of the Western Alliance is demonstrated time and again. But hey, Trump Tower Moscow will make it worthwhile, right?
South Korea and Japan, our closest Asian allies, will face a China unconstrained by the leverage of U.S. trade to normalize its behavior and a North Korea emboldened by Trump’s elevation of Kim Jong-un to the status of an equal partner. Kim has been able to survive sanctions and threatens the stability of the region only by Trump’s goodwill. The DPRK will have enjoyed a long head start on developing effective intermediate-range nuclear weapons because Donald Trump gave it to them on a platter.
At least Jared Kushner will broker Middle East peace in the second term.
Oh. Wait.
The State Department will become an even more demoralized mess. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has gone down a path toward being the ultimate Trump sycophant. His leadership in U.S. diplomacy and protection of our allies is constantly compromised by attempts to apply the proper suction to Trump’s ass.
Trump’s eagerness for “wins” will continue to collide with the realities of a hard world of hard leaders. The Chinese will never give him a victory. The Taliban are salivating for the departure of U.S. forces from Afghanistan so they can return to their accustomed medieval savagery toward women and apostates. Russia will continue to behave as if they have—to paraphrase LBJ—Trump’s pecker in their pocket. And by “pecker” I mean “mushroom-shaped object.”
Trump’s short temper, lack of knowledge or experience in national security matters, and inability to see beyond the time horizon of his next tweet will, in the event of a more kinetic crisis, leave American forces and interests at risk. God forbid an American warship fails in battle, or a Special Forces unit can’t complete a mission. He’ll likely declare them enemies of the people and issue a tweet to mock their shortcomings.
The bad guys know the same things our allies know: This is a weak man in a weak White House. He is unreliable, untruthful, and unmanageable. No matter how many flyovers and tank displays are arranged to keep him clapping like a toddler, and no matter how tough he talks on Twitter, they’ve got his number…and America in their sights.