1. Larry Diamond, “Facing Up to the Democratic Recession,” Journal of Democracy 26, no. 1 (January 2015): 141–155.
2. A long line of distinguished scholars has emphasized the role of institutions in political and economic development, even as they have differed on some of the details of how those processes work. This book’s conception of democracy—and various types of non-democratic regimes, as detailed later in the introduction—builds off this foundation. By using Douglass North’s definition of institutions as “rules of the game” that “structure incentives,” the book acknowledges the role of institutions as mechanisms for bargaining. It also recognizes their relation to state capacity, echoing the work of Samuel Huntington and Francis Fukuyama, who have focused on how institutions help bring order—without which political or economic development is not possible. The book’s typology also places considerable weight on the institutional space afforded to various actors and the degree to which they are able to contest political issues. In that sense it is similar to the work of Douglass North, John Joseph Wallis, and Barry R. Weingast, who contrasted “open access” and “limited access” societies; and Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson, who similarly wrote of “inclusive” and “extractive” institutions. These concepts generally map onto the meanings of “democracy” and “non-democracy” as used in this book.
3. Douglass C. North, Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), 3.
4. This phrase was popularized by Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan in “Toward Consolidated Democracies,” Journal of Democracy 7, no. 2 (April 1996): 12–33. They credit Giuseppe di Palma with coining the phrase.
1. For more on the Constitutional Convention of 1787, see Catherine Drinker Bowen, Miracle at Philadelphia: The Story of the Constitutional Convention, May to September 1787 (Boston: Little, Brown, 1966); Richard Beeman, Plain, Honest Men: The Making of the American Constitution (New York: Random House, 2010); David O. Stewart, The Summer of 1787: The Men Who Invented the Constitution (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2007); Jack N. Rakove, Original Meanings: Politics and Ideas in the Making of the Constitution (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1996); Christopher Collier, Decision in Philadelphia: The Constitutional Convention of 1787 (New York: Ballantine, 1986). For a broader but very rich account of the founding period and the republic’s first years, see Joseph J. Ellis’s Founding Brothers: The Revolutionary Generation (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2000).
2. The “Fourth Estate” usually refers to an entity outside the traditional power structure of a society—in this case, a free press. The original “three estates” of the ancien régime in prerevolutionary France were the nobility, clergy, and commoners. According to Thomas Carlyle, Edmund Burke coined the term when observing a parliamentary debate in 1787. Wrote Carlyle, “Burke said there were Three Estates in Parliament; but, in the Reporters’ Gallery yonder, there sat a Fourth Estate more important far than they all.”
3. David M. Kennedy, “The American Presidency: A Brief History,” lecture at Stanford University, fall 2016.
4. The Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 was passed to prevent federal troops from ever again serving a domestic law enforcement purpose. The one exception stemmed from the Insurrection Act of 1807, which allowed the president to deploy federal troops within the United States in the event of an “insurrection, or obstruction to the laws.” After Hurricane Katrina, the Insurrection Act was amended in 2006 to allow the president to deploy federal troops to restore order in the wake of a natural disaster, terrorist attack, or other public emergency. That amendment would have hastened the federal response to Hurricane Katrina had it been in place when the storm struck, but it also raised complaints from governors and states’ rights activists, and it was repealed in 2008.
5. Samuel E. Finer raised this question in his classic on civil-military relations, The Man on Horseback: The Role of the Military in Politics (London: Pall Mall, 1962), 5. As he put it, “Instead of asking why the military engage in politics, we ought surely ask why they ever do otherwise. For at first sight the political advantages of the military vis-à-vis other and civilian groupings are overwhelming. The military possess vastly superior organization. And they possess arms” (italics in original).
6. Between 1786 and 1787, former Continental army captain Daniel Shays led a group of four thousand rebels in a series of uprisings over high tax rates, including an attempt to capture a U.S. armory. Although the rebellion was eventually quelled, it spurred economic reforms and, more important, shaped debates about the scope of the new U.S. government by highlighting the weakness of a limited national government like the one put in place by the Articles of Confederation.
7. One of Madison’s mentors at Princeton, Dr. John Witherspoon, once argued that religion benefits from the spread of political liberty: “Knowledge of God and his truths have from the beginning… been confined to those parts of the earth where some degree of liberty and political justice were to be seen.… Knowledge of divine truth… has been spread by liberty,” he said. (Garrett Ward Sheldon, The Political Philosophy of James Madison [Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001], 28, which cites Jeffery Hays Morrison, “John Witherspoon and ‘The Public Interest of Religion,’” Journal of Church and State 41 [Summer 1999]: 597.)
8. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Value Added by Industry as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product,” 2015, http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTableHtml.cfm?reqid=51&step=51&isuri=1&5114=a&5102=5. This same fact can be demonstrated by comparing government spending as a percentage of GDP. According to 2015 data from the World Bank, government spending as a percentage of GDP in the United States (14.4 percent) was considerably lower than in a variety of other countries, including France (23.9); Canada (21.2); Japan (20.4); Brazil (20.2); and the United Kingdom (19.4). See: World Bank, “General Government Final Consumption Expenditure (% of GDP),” 2016, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.GOVT.ZS.
9. Olivier Zunz, Philanthropy in America: A History (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2012), 8.
10. Ken Stern, “Why the Rich Don’t Give to Charity,” Atlantic, April 2013.
11. Arthur C. Brooks, “A Nation of Givers,” American, American Enterprise Institute, March/April 2008, https://www.aei.org/publication/a-nation-of-givers/.
12. Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America, vol. 1, ch. 14.
13. The Alien and Sedition Acts were actually four pieces of legislation, and only one of them, the Sedition Act, targeted speech. The act prohibited “writing, printing, uttering or publishing any false, scandalous and malicious writing or writings against the government.” The law had a built-in sunset provision and was allowed to expire in 1801. The other three acts were related to the treatment and naturalization of non-American citizens within the United States.
14. As my colleague Francis Fukuyama notes, despite the progress under Teddy Roosevelt, “the end of the patronage system at a federal level did not arrive until the middle of the twentieth century.” Political Order and Political Decay: From the Industrial Revolution to the Globalization of Democracy (New York: Macmillan, 2014), 160.
15. Dred Scott v. John F. A. Sandford (1857), opinion of Chief Justice Taney, Supreme Court of the United States, available at http://memory.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/r?ammem/llst:@field(DOCID+@lit(llst022div3))).
16. Frederick Douglass, “The Dred Scott Decision,” speech before the American Anti-Slavery Society, May 14, 1857, available at https://www.lib.rochester.edu/index.cfm?PAGE=4399.
17. The KKK was refounded in the early twentieth century and had a strong following in the Midwest.
18. Today, there are more than a hundred historically black colleges operating across the country, granting undergraduate and graduate degrees to thousands of students of all races.
19. One judge from Alabama exemplifies the notion of judicial independence. Judge Frank M. Johnson, appointed to the federal judiciary by President Eisenhower in 1955, played a central role in helping to overturn Jim Crow–era laws in Alabama, even as it came at a high cost to himself in the form of harassment and ostracism from his segregationist neighbors. On the bench, he interpreted the law as he saw it, repeatedly ruling in favor of equal rights by applying the same principles upheld by the Supreme Court in Brown v. Board of Education, not just to schools, but to all areas of public life.
20. For further explanation of Native American history, consider the following books: Francis Paul Prucha, The Great Father: The United States Government and the American Indians (Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press, 1986); Dee Brown, Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee: An Indian History of the American West (New York: Picador, 2007; originally published in 1970); and Stephen Pevar, The Rights of Indians and Tribes (New York: Oxford University Press, 2012; originally published in 1983).
21. There were actually two matters before the Court, one involving undergraduate admissions at the University of Michigan (which were ultimately deemed unconstitutional), and one involving admissions to the University of Michigan Law School (which were not).
1. Josef Stalin, On the Opposition, 1921–1927 (Peking: Foreign Language Press, 1974).
2. For example, the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) was a satellite-based missile defense system designed to protect America from nuclear attack. While SDI never became fully operational, its real impact was on the Soviets’ thinking. It raised the stakes in the arms race and convinced many in the Soviet military that maintaining technological parity with the United States was either impossible or not worth the cost. For more on these issues, see two articles from earlier in my career: “The Party, the Military, and Decision Authority in the Soviet Union,” World Politics 40, no. 1 (October 1987): 55–81; and “The Military-Technical Revolution and the General Staff in the Soviet Union,” in Herbert Goodman, Science and Technology in the Soviet Union (Stanford Conference Report on Soviet Technology, 1984).
3. John Arch Getty, Origins of the Great Purges: The Soviet Communist Party Reconsidered, 1933–1938 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985), 8.
4. First performed in front of Tsar Nicholas I in 1836, this five-act satirical comedy takes place in a provincial town outside Saint Petersburg. A government copying clerk named Ivan Khlestakov is mistaken by the town officials for the anxiously anticipated inspector general. Upon realizing their mistake, Khlestakov accepts bribes from the officials in exchange for promising to leave the town’s corruption unreported. Despite its harsh satire of the Russian civil service, the play was received well by Tsar Nicholas I, who insisted that it be produced in the Imperial Theater. The story was popularized in modern times by a film starring Danny Kaye.
5. Michael McFaul, Russia’s Unfinished Revolution: Political Change from Gorbachev to Putin (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2001), 65.
6. Ibid.
7. Steven Rosefielde, Russia in the 21st Century: The Prodigal Superpower (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005), 41.
8. “Four Power Rights and Responsibilities” refers to the post–World War II agreement between the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and the Soviet Union on the status of East and West Germany and the divided city of Berlin.
9. Michael McFaul, borrowing from the language of the French Revolution, has helpfully spoken of three Russian “republics” during this period, of which the Gorbachev reforms were the first, connecting analytically the changes in reforms of the final years of the Soviet Union to the early years of Russia’s independence. In reality, that connection was broken—severed by the chaotic events surrounding the birth of a new Russia.
10. Branko Milanovic, “Income, Inequality, and Poverty During the Transition from Planned to Market Economy” (World Bank, February 1998), 12.
11. Ibid., 9.
12. Ibid., 68.
13. Matthew Johnston, “The Russian Economy Since the Collapse of the Soviet Union,” Investopedia, January 21, 2016, http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/012116/russian-economy-collapse-soviet-union.asp.
14. These figures represent the numbers of deaths by assault. World Health Organization Mortality Database, http://www.who.int/healthinfo/mortality_data/en/.
15. These federal interventions, which included removing governors and disbanding legislatures, could be initiated two ways. The president could act in concert with the Duma and the courts, or he could act on his own if he had the support of the general prosecutor’s office.
16. For those unfamiliar with these events, Putin’s Russia has a history of supporting separatist groups in neighboring countries, particularly former members of the Soviet Union. In Georgia, to Russia’s south, Russian support for the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia led to conflict in August 2008. Georgian officials played a role in provoking the violence, but the small country was clearly outmatched in the intense fighting that followed. A peace deal formally ended the conflict after several days, but diplomatic relations between Georgia and Russia were severed, tensions remain high, and the Georgian government seems further away from ever reclaiming its breakaway regions. A similar story has unfolded in Ukraine. In February 2014, antigovernment protests forced the pro-Russian president to flee, and Russia responded by authorizing a stealth invasion of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. It formally annexed Crimea shortly thereafter, in what is perhaps the greatest affront to the law-based international order in Europe since World War II. Russian-backed separatists have since expanded the conflict to several provinces of eastern Ukraine, which remain deadlocked and in turmoil, with no solution in sight.
1. “Zycie Warszawy Scores Solidarity Declarations,” Zycie Warszawy, December 2, 1981, Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report, Eastern Europe, FBIS-EEU-81-235, December 8, 1981, p. G10, infoweb.newsbank.com/iw-search/we/HistArchive/?p_product=FBISX&p_theme=fbis&p_nbid=U68N52XQMTQ4NTE5ODIwOC4zMTkxNTc6MToxNDoxNzEuNjYuMjA4LjEzNA&p_action=doc&p_docref=v2:11C33B0D5F860D98@FBISX-1256BBA5C44C47E0@2444947-1256BBAF0A60D088-1256BBAF2A5EF838.
2. There were several other parties as well—indeed, there were twenty-nine in 1991. Some catered to specific industries (such as the newly re-formed Polish Peasant Party); others were regionally targeted (such as the Movement for Silesian Autonomy); while others focused on specific issues (such as the Women Alliance Against Hardship). The political field consolidated in the following years, and in 2011 only five parties made it into parliament.
3. Such was the case with Croatia in 2005, when its accession talks were postponed over concerns about Croatian authorities’ willingness to pursue fugitives accused of war crimes. The Croats had to take concrete steps to put those concerns to rest, and by the end of the year they had apprehended the top fugitive. But even so, when the talks finally began, Croatia still had other issues to address, ranging from judicial reforms to anticorruption measures, before it was to be admitted as a member.
4. Democratic peace theory holds that democratic states do not go to war with other democratic states. The concept was first formulated by Immanuel Kant, who argued in a 1795 essay that “perpetual peace” could be achieved once every state had a republican constitution, because “if the consent of the citizens is required in order to decide that war should be declared… they would be very cautious in commencing such a poor game, decreeing for themselves all the calamities of war.” By the second half of the twentieth century, democracy had taken hold in enough countries to test Kant’s theory, which became the subject of substantial academic research. Of all the theories in international relations, few if any have more empirical support. For more, see Michael Brown, Sean Lynn-Jones, and Steven Miller, Debating the Democratic Peace (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1996).
5. Anna Grzymala-Busse, “Why Would Poland Make Its Already Strict Abortion Law Draconian?,” Washington Post, April 18, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/04/18/why-would-poland-make-its-already-strict-abortion-law-draconian. Additionally, see her book Nations Under God: How Churches Use Moral Authority to Influence Policy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2015).
1. As quoted in Svetlana Alexievich, Voices from Chernobyl: The Oral History of a Nuclear Disaster, trans. Keith Gessen (New York: Picador, 2006), 32.
2. Paul R. Magocsi, A History of Ukraine: The Land and Its Peoples (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2010), 722.
3. Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, “Widespread Campaign Irregularities Observed in Ukrainian Presidential Election,” November 1, 2004, www.osce.org/odihr/elections/56894.
1. Charles Hornsby, Kenya: A History Since Independence (London: I. B. Tauris, 2012), 30.
2. Ibid., 47–48.
3. Ibid., 60.
4. This was the topic of Jendayi’s doctoral dissertation. She argued that the Kenyan police and other non-military armed forces created prior to independence (1952–60) formed the basis of a counterweight to the military and granted civilian leaders experience in security affairs that promoted stable civil-military relations and civilian control over the military after independence in 1963. See Jendayi Elizabeth Frazer, “Sustaining Civilian Control: Armed Counterweights in Regime Stability in Africa” (PhD diss., Stanford University, March 1994).
5. Hornsby, History Since Independence, 96.
6. “Kenya: GDP Per Capita (Current US$)” (World Bank, 2016), http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=KE&view=chart.
7. The “Washington consensus” refers to a set of ten free-market economic policy reforms widely advocated by Washington-based agencies (such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the U.S. Treasury Department) in promoting economic expansion and trade liberalization in developing nations. The original tenets were outlined in the late 1980s and attempted to describe changing global norms for development policy.
8. Jane Perlez, “U.S. Forgives Portion of Kenya’s Loan Debt,” New York Times, January 10, 1990, www.nytimes.com/1990/01/10/business/us-forgives-portion-of-kenya-s-loan-debt.html.
9. Hornsby, History Since Independence, 472.
10. “Five More Reported Killed in Kenya Unrest,” Associated Press, July 10, 1990, www.nytimes.com/1990/07/10/world/5-more-reported-killed-in-kenya-unrest.html.
11. Jane Perlez, “Rising Political Discontent in Kenya Is Tarnishing Its Progressive Image,” New York Times, July 29, 1990, www.nytimes.com/1990/07/29/world/rising-political-discontent-in-kenya-is-tarnishing-its-progressive-image.html?pagewanted=all.
12. Hornsby, History Since Independence, 481.
13. Jane Perlez, “Stung by Protest Over Crackdown, Kenya Calls U.S. Envoy a Racist,” New York Times, November 19, 1991, www.nytimes.com/1991/11/19/world/stung-by-protest-over-crackdown-kenya-calls-us-envoy-a-racist.html.
14. Hornsby, History Since Independence, 486–87.
15. Jane Perlez, “Kenya, a Land That Thrived, Is Now Caught Up in Fear of Ethnic Civil War,” New York Times, May 3, 1992, http://www.nytimes.com/1992/05/03/world/kenya-a-land-that-thrived-is-now-caught-up-in-fear-of-ethnic-civil-war.html.
16. James C. McKinley Jr., “Sworn for 5th Term, Kenya’s President Vows to Fight Corruption and Poverty,” New York Times, January 7, 1998, www.nytimes.com/1998/01/06/world/sworn-for-5th-term-kenya-s-president-vows-to-fight-corruption-and-poverty.html.
17. Marc Lacey, “Kenya Joyful as Moi Yields Power to New Leader,” New York Times, December 31, 2002, www.nytimes.com/2002/12/31/world/kenya-joyful-as-moi-yields-power-to-new-leader.html.
18. Marc Lacey, “Kenya’s Judiciary Thrown into Disarray by Inquiry,” New York Times, October 23, 2003, www.nytimes.com/2003/10/23/international/africa/kenyas-judiciary-thrown-into-disarray-by-inquiry.html.
19. Marc Lacey, “Debate on Kenya’s Future: Serious Talk and Fruit Tossing,” New York Times, October 16, 2005, http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/16/world/africa/debate-on-kenyas-future-serious-talk-and-fruit-tossing.html.
20. Marc Lacey, “Debate on Kenya’s Future: Serious Talk and Fruit Tossing,” New York Times, October 16, 2005, www.nytimes.com/2005/10/16/world/africa/debate-on-kenyas-future-serious-talk-and-fruit-tossing.html.
21. Marc Lacey, “Kenya Government Opponents Reject Protest Ban,” New York Times, November 29, 2005, www.nytimes.com/2005/11/29/world/africa/kenya-government-opponents-reject-protest-ban.html.
22. Jeffrey Gettleman, “Turmoil Grows in Kenya, with More Than 100 Dead,” New York Times, December 31, 2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/world/africa/31cnd-kenya.html.
23. Jeffrey Gettleman, “Kenya Crisis Worsens as Opposition Cools to Talk,” New York Times, January 9, 2008, www.nytimes.com/2008/01/09/world/africa/09kenya.html.
24. “Kenyan Leaders in Call for Peace,” BBC News, April 24, 2008, news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7364273.stm.
25. Jeffrey Gettleman, “Kenyan Court Upholds Election of Candidate Facing Charges in The Hague,” New York Times, March 30, 2013, www.nytimes.com/2013/03/31/world/africa/in-tense-kenya-court-upholds-election-results.html.
26. “Kenya: President Kenyatta’s Inauguration Speech,” April 9, 2013, allafrica.com/stories/201304091200.html.
1. Rojas’s flight was the result of strong civilian opposition and intricate and difficult negotiation between the leaders of the Liberal Party, Alberto Lleras Camargo, and the Conservative leader, Laureano Gómez, who worked out the Agreement of Benidorm, which was signed on July 24, 1956, and was followed in March 1957 by the Declaration of Sitges. It defined the rules of the Frente Nacional (“National Front”), which sought to outline a structure that would allow the country to be ruled peacefully again. It was agreed that the parties would take alternate periods in the presidency during four terms: first Liberal, then Conservative, then Liberal, and then Conservative (although this arrangement ultimately continued longer). Half of the cabinet had to be Liberal and half Conservative. Half of the governors had to be Liberal and half Conservative. The parties worked to oust Rojas and set up a temporary junta while elections took place. The junta respected the terms.
2. Declaration of Sitges, July 20, 1957, http://college.cengage.com/history/world/keen/latin_america/8e/assets/students/sources/pdfs/119declaration_sitges.pdf.
3. Natalia Springer, “Colombia: Internal Displacement—Policies and Problems,” United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Status Determination and Protection Information Section, June 2006, 1, www.refworld.org/pdfid/44bf463a4.pdf.
4. Juan Forero, “Administration Shifts Focus on Colombia Aid,” New York Times, February 6, 2002, http://www.nytimes.com/2002/02/06/world/administration-shifts-focus-on-colombia-aid.html.
5. “Reaction of Sen. Patrick Leahy to the White House Budget for Fiscal Year 2003 (Including Budget Highlights),” press release, Office of Senator Patrick Leahy, February 4, 2002, http://lobby.la.psu.edu/_107th/123_Farm_Bill/Congressional_Statements/Senate/S_Leahy_020402.htm.
6. Harvey F. Kline, Historical Dictionary of Colombia (Lanham, MD: Scarecrow Press, 2012), 515.
7. Álvaro Uribe, Interview with Charles Nicas, May 23, 2016.
8. All the figures in this paragraph come from the World Bank and are measured in 2013 dollars.
9. Claudia Palacios, “Colombians Debate Third Term for President,” CNN, December 4, 2008, http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/12/04/colombia.president.
10. Andre Viollaz, “UN to Monitor End of Colombia-FARC Conflict,” Agence France-Presse, January 26, 2016, https://www.yahoo.com/news/un-monitor-end-colombia-rebel-conflict-resolution-214246221.html?ref=gs.
1. “Lebanon,” CIA World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/le.html.
2. This data point comes from the 2016 edition of an annual survey conducted by Burson-Marsteller. For more, see the Arab Youth Survey 2016, www.arabyouthsurvey.com.
3. To write the report, the United Nations Development Program commissioned an independent team of experts from the Arab world. Nader Fergany, an Egyptian economist, served as the lead author of the report, and he worked with a collection of other Arab scholars, including: M. Abido, A. A. Ali, N. Ali, M. M. Al-Imam, M. Al-Khalidi, F. Al-Allaghi, M. K. Al-Sayed, M. Badawi, G. Corm, M. Dewidar, I. Elbadawi, A. El-Bayoumi, O. El-Kholy, F. ElZanaty, M. Amin Faris, Salim Jahan, T. Kanaan, A. Mahjoub, S. Morsy, N. Mosa’ad, M. A. Nassar, S. Ben Nefissa, H. Rashad, M. Gawad Redha, F. Sarkis, M. Za’alouk, A. Zahlan and H. Zurayk.
4. “How the Arabs Compare: Arab Human Development Report 2002,” Middle East Quarterly 9, no. 4 (Fall 2002): 59–67, http://www.meforum.org/513/how-the-arabs-compare.
5. Condoleezza Rice, No Higher Honor: A Memoir of My Time in Washington (New York: Crown, 2011), 166ff.
6. “Iraq’s Continuing Program for Weapons of Mass Destruction,” U.S. National Intelligence Estimate, October 2002; Rice, No Higher Honor, 166–71.
7. Thomas Wagner, “Iraq Vice-President’s Sister Gunned Down,” Associated Press, April 27, 2006.
8. The PRT model was initially developed in Afghanistan in 2002, with the same goal of improving local governance, and it was adapted to Iraq in 2005.
9. Haider Ala Hamoudi, “Post-War Iraq: Slow and Steady Progress,” Jurist, December 13, 2011, www.jurist.org/forum/2011/12/haider-hamoudi-iraq-withdrawal.php.
10. Bob Gates, interview with Bret Baier, “Fox News Reporting: Rising Threats, Shrinking Military,” Fox News, May 10, 2016, video.foxnews.com/v/4887449378001.
11. Dr. Tahani Alsandook, Government of Iraq Ministry of Higher Education, presentation at the NAFSA 2016 Annual Conference, June 1, 2016, https://www.nafsa.org/_/File/_/iem_spotlight_aug16_iraqihighered.pdf.
12. Hafez Ghanem, “The Role of Micro and Small Enterprises in Egypt’s Economic Transition,” Brookings Institution, 2013, 5, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/01-egypt-economic-transition-ghanem.pdf.
13. Paolo Verme et al., Inside Inequality in the Arab Republic of Egypt: Facts and Perceptions Across People, Time, and Space (World Bank, 2014), 47, http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/egypt-inequality-book.pdf.
14. Michael Slackman, “In Egypt, Mixed Views of Politics with a Field of Choices,” New York Times, September 4, 2005, http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/04/world/africa/in-egypt-mixed-views-of-politics-with-a-field-of-choices.html.
15. Condoleezza Rice, “Remarks with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Ali Aboul Gheit After Meeting,” State Department, February 21, 2006, https://2001-2009.state.gov/secretary/rm/2006/61811.htm.
16. Middle East Monitor, as quoted in “British Foreign Policy and the ‘Arab Spring,’” UK House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, 2012, 17, http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmfaff/80/80.pdf.
17. Sharan Grewal, “Why Tunisia Didn’t Follow Egypt’s Path,” Washington Post, February 4, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/02/04/why-egypt-didnt-follow-tunisias-path.
18. Marina Ottaway, “Egypt and Tunisia: Democratic Transitions and the Problem of Power,” Woodrow Wilson Center, April 18, 2014, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/egypt-and-tunisia-democratic-transitions-and-the-problem-power.
19. Sarah Drury, “Education: The Key to Women’s Empowerment in Saudi Arabia?,” Middle East Institute, July 30, 2015, http://www.mei.edu/content/article/education-key-women%E2%80%99s-empowerment-saudi-arabia.
20. Jonathan Chew, “Women Are Taking Over Saudi Arabia’s Workforce,” Fortune, August 10, 2015, http://fortune.com/2015/08/10/women-saudi-arabia/.
21. In the Spanish case, King Juan Carlos helped usher in democratic rule after the death of longtime dictator Francisco Franco in 1975. The king assumed power in the aftermath of Franco’s death and worked with rival groups from across the spectrum to facilitate free elections in 1977 and a new constitution in 1978. Spain’s success in transitioning from dictatorship to democracy without civil war or violence was unprecedented at the time.
22. The disarmament and demobilization process is a standard part of peacebuilding efforts and has been undertaken in a variety of contexts as a prerequisite to electoral participation, including in Afghanistan, Northern Ireland, and Colombia.
23. For more, see Madeleine K. Albright and Stephen J. Hadley, Middle East Strategy Task Force: Final Report of the Co-Chairs (Atlantic Council, November 2016), http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/MEST_Final_Report_web_1130.pdf.
24. West Bank and Gaza: Towards Economic Sustainability of a Future Palestinian State: Promoting Private Sector–Led Growth (World Bank, April 2012), 39, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWESTBANKGAZA/Resources/GrowthStudyEngcorrected.pdf.
25. Jacob J. Lew, “Remarks of Secretary Jacob J. Lew at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy 30th Anniversary Gala,” April 29, 2015, https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl0040.aspx.
1. “Afghanistan’s Election: Taliban? What Taliban?” Economist, October 14, 2004, www.economist.com/node/3291641.
2. “Afghanistan Goes to Polls,” Associated Press, October 10, 2004, www.thehindu.com/2004/10/10/stories/2004101004500100.htm.
3. Ahmed Rashid, Descent into Chaos: The US and the Disaster in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia (New York: Penguin Books, 2009), 260.
4. Ibid.
5. John F. Burns, “For a Battered Populace, a Day of Civic Passion,” New York Times, January 31, 2005, www.nytimes.com/2005/01/31/world/middleeast/for-a-battered-populace-a-day-of-civic-passion.html.
6. This figure from Chinese scholar Sun Liping, whose most recent data is from 2010, appears in a recent book by my Stanford colleague Anja Manuel: This Brave New World: India, China, and the United States (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2016), 191.
7. Manuel, This Brave New World.
1. Bradley C. Parks and Zachary J. Rice, “Measuring the Policy Influence of the Millennium Challenge Corporation: A Survey-Based Approach,” Institute of Theory and Practice of International Relations: The College of William and Mary, February 2013, http://www.wm.edu/offices/itpir/_documents/reform-incentives-report-mcc.pdf.
1. While Afghanistan has done a good job of keeping to its schedule of regular elections, the parliamentary elections due in 2016 became a source of dispute, as sought-after electoral reforms failed to pass and the election was delayed.
2. George W. Bush, The National Security Strategy for the United States of America, September 2002, https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/63562.pdf.
1. Bianca DiJulio, Jamie Firth, and Mollyann Brodie, “Data Note: Americans’ Views on the U.S. Role in Global Health,” Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, January 23, 2015, http://kff.org/global-health-policy/poll-finding/data-note-americans-views-on-the-u-s-role-in-global-health/.
2. “Americans’ Confidence in Institutions Stays Low,” Gallup, June 13, 2016, www.gallup.com/poll/192581/americans-confidence-institutions-stays-low.aspx; “Public Trust in Government: 1958–2015,” Pew Research Center, November 23, 2015, http://www.people-press.org/2015/11/23/public-trust-in-government-1958-2015/.
1. Sarah Marsh, “‘I Am Fed Up with the Elite Ignoring Us’: Leave Voters on Article 50 Ruling,” Guardian, November 4, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/04/leave-voters-on-article-50-ruling-brexit.
2. Fareed Zakaria, “America’s Democracy Has Become Illiberal,” Washington Post, December 29, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/america-is-becoming-a-land-of-less-liberty/2016/12/29/2a91744c-ce09-11e6-a747-d03044780a02_story.html?utm_term=.7bcd039036ed.