Note: Page references for figures are italicized.
abortion issue, 128
Abu Ghraib scandal, 113
acceptance, need for, 56–57, 63; groupthink, 17, 34, 77–80
acid rain, 138
action, 5, 130–31; patterned, 29, 98–99, 131
action maxims, 139
action scripts, 140
action templates, 34
actor-general theory, 16, 28, 219
actors: actor-subject interactions, 201–2; equilibrium rules and, 181–82; intermestic, 157, 218, 219
actor-specific theory, 6–8, 28, 32, 74, 219
Adar, Korwa, 218
Africa: scholarship from, 218; sub-Saharan, 171–72
African Union, 219
“agent-structure” problematique, 8, 10–13, 31
Albright, Madeleine, 76
Allen, John, 115
alliances, 161
Allison, Graham, 18, 99, 107, 217
Almond, Gabriel A., 129–30, 137
Almond-Lippmann consensus, 23–24
Analogies at War (Khong), 18
Analysis of Foreign Policy (AFP), 218. See also Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA)
analytic code, 50
anchoring fallacy, 46
Andriole, Stephen J., 19, 197, 199
Anglo-Boer War of 1899–1902, 186
Anglo-Irish Agreement (AIA), 143–44
Angola, 178
ANSA (special assistant to the president for National Security Affairs), 60, 111, 118
Appelbaum, Binyamin, 60
Arab Spring, 180
Argentina, 160
artificial intelligence, 199–200, 222
Ashcroft, John, 117
Assange, Julian, 180
associative recall, 45
at-a-distance indicators, 25
Ataturk Dam, 172
attitudinal prism, 196–97, 197
attributions, 58–60, 64, 122, 139
Austin, Lloyd, 115
Australia, 92–93, 121, 137, 148, 173; merging of organizations, 92–93
Azerbaijan, 171
Ba’ath Party, 73
balance of power systems, 181–82
Ball, Desmond, 139
Banerjee, Sanjoy, 135
Barber, James David, 62–63, 226
Barnett, Michael, 31
Battle of Algiers (movie), 129
Bay of Pigs invasion (1961), 80–82, 166, 227
behavioral economics, 39, 60, 212
Belgium, 137
beliefs/attributions, 58–60, 64, 122, 139. See also operational code
Bell, Coral, 137
Berlin Wall, 188
Beyond Groupthink (’t Hart, Stern, and Sundelius), 86
“Big 5” personality traits, 70
bin Laden, Osama, 20
Biological Weapons Convention, 176
bipolar systems, 122, 170, 182–83
Bissell, Richard, 81
Blankshain, Jessica D., 115
blind spot bias, 48
body, decisionmaking and, 53–56
body language of states, 135
Boland Amendment, 147
Bonn Summit (1978), 151
Brams, Steven, 213
branches of government, 120
Brawley, Mark, 211
Brecher, Michael, 21, 196–97, 197
Breuning, Marijke, 29–30, 32–33, 125, 137, 214
Brezhnev, Leonid, 204
British Cabinet, 86
Brzezinski, Zbigniew, 111
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, 145–46
Bundy, McGeorge, 81
bureaucratic politics, 18, 34, 75, 76, 106–21; in academia, 223; action channels, 108–9; agendas, 109, 111–12; coalitions, 110, 112; deadlines, 109, 110–11; framing, 109–10; games, 107, 114–16; Guantánamo Bay detention system, 116–21; information control, 109, 111; intraorganizational cleavages, 120; manipulation, levers of, 109–12; national bureaucracy, government as, 89, 93; personal networks, 107, 112; resultants, 109; rules, 110; stakeholders, 107–8, 114; sub-bureaucratic level of analysis, 115, 219; subversion and equalizers, 108, 113–14. See also interagency group politics
Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy (Halperin), 18–19
Bush, George H. W., 41, 54, 80, 84, 147, 192. See also Iraq invasions
Bush, George W., 41, 49, 72–73, 83, 148, 163–64; administration, 145; content analysis of, 70, 72; gamesmanship, 87; Guantánamo Bay detention system and, 116, 118, 119. See also Iraq invasions
Bybee, Jay, 113
bystanders, 56
Cambodia, 171
Card, Michael, 104
Carter, Jimmy, 42, 111, 151, 173
case studies, 17, 22–23, 25–26, 80, 193, 196, 214
causal explanations, 46–49, 58–60
CENTCOM (U.S. Central Command), 115
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), 50, 95, 108, 193; Bay of Pigs invasion and, 82; Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction, 72; 9/11 and, 88–89, 92, 97; Office of Leadership Analysis, 39–40, 63
Chad, 171
chain of command, 99–100, 102–5
Challenger disaster, 104
Chang, Cheng-Yun, 130
character, 43, 61–62; national, 123, 127; societal, 22–24
Charillon, Frédéric, 225
China (People’s Republic of China), 111, 114, 121, 136, 218; demographics, 174–75; energy needs, 171; national role conception, 139–40; nuclear installations, near-attack, 114; Spratly Islands, 141; U.S. Treasury bills and, 179
China, imperial, 137
Chinese Economic Statecraft (Norris), 180
Chinese Righteous War Tradition (CRWT), 130
Choucri, Nazli, 174
Civic Culture: Political Attitudes and Democracy in Five Nations (Almond and Verba), 129–30
Civil Service Foreign Affairs Fellowships, 226
Clancy, Tom, 129
clash of civilizations, 122
classic FPA scholarship (1954 to 1993), 16–28, 120; bureaucratic politics, 18; Comparative Foreign Policy (CFP), 19–20, 25; first generation of work (1954 to1973), 16; group decisionmaking, 17–19; organizational process, 18; psychological and societal milieux (psycho-milieu), 16, 20–25; second generation of work (1974 to 1993), 16–17. See also Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA); specific areas of study
climate change, 47, 145, 149, 172
Clinton, Bill, 70, 71, 150, 168
cloning, 92
Coates, John, 55
cognition, 34, 42–44, 43, 58, 60–61, 139, 192, 214
cognitive constraints, 22
cognitive dissonance, 61
Cohen, Michael D., 52
Cold War, 122–23, 124, 163, 165; actor-general theory and, 28; Angola, 178; constructivist turn and, 12; end of, 12, 31; ideational change, 13–14; individual decisionmaking theory, 39; origins of, 186; schema heuristic example, 47; strategic culture concept, 136
Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) Report, 100–106
Columbia shuttle disaster (2003), 100–106
Committee on Overhead Reconnaissance (COMOR), 193
The Communist Manifesto (Marx), 185
Comparative Foreign Policy (CFP), 19–20, 25–28, 123
Comparative Politics, 10
Comparative Research on the Events of Nations (CREON) Project, 21, 67, 201; CREON II, 203–8, 206
complexity, 97
complexity-aversion, 221
concessions, 57
confidence vs. competence, 49
confirmation bias, 50
conservation values, 60
constructivist analysis, 9, 10–14, 29, 214, 218, 223–24
content analysis, 64–69, 66, 196
Coolidge, Calvin, 63
Cooper, David A., 115
corporate sector, 85
Cottam, Richard, 22
Coverdale, Brydon, 125
CREON. See Comparative Research on the Events of Nations (CREON) Project
Crichlow, Scott, 86
cross-national theory building, 15, 16, 19, 26
Cuba: Bay of Pigs invasion, 80–82, 166, 227
Cuban missile crisis (1962), 6–7, 18, 81–83, 99, 166, 169–70; COMOR meeting, 193; ExCom (small group), 82, 110, 170; subversion by Soviet decisionmakers, 113–14
culture, 8, 33, 34, 77; cultural imperialism, 187; definitions, 125–26; dimensionalized, 130; ethical systems, 130; as “explanation of last resort,” 123, 127; as independent variable, 23; “last chance” meetings, 82–83; organizational, 34, 90–91, 100–101, 106; as organization of meaning, 128–29; political, 132–34, 137–38; strategic, 136–37; as templates of human strategy, 128, 130–31; as value preferences, 128, 129–30
culture and national identity, 8, 33, 34, 122–44; conceptualizing, 123–31; culture, study of, 127–31; differences in values and preferences, 136–38; dramaturgical studies, 131, 137; foreign policy, interface with, 131–35; prefabricated templates of action, 131, 139–41; recommendations, 141–44; shared systems of meaning, 131–35; strategic culture, 136–37; strategic social construction, 124; “what ‘we’ do,” 124–25; “who are ‘they’ ” question, 125–26; “who are ‘we’ ” question, 123–25
Czech culture, 138
d’Andrade, R. G., 127
Daniel, J. Furman, III, 129
Davies, Sara E., 224
Day, Benjamin, 108
decisionmaking: below nation-state level, 14–15, 28; decision unit roles, 77, 204–6, 205, 206, 207; dual-aspect setting, 7, 15; human decisionmakers, 3–9, 31, 33; as organizational behavior, 15, 76; outcomes, 5, 107, 109; psycho-milieu, 16; resultants, 109; stages of, 4
Decision-Making as an Approach to the Study of International Politics (Snyder, Bruck, and Sapin), 14–15
decision trees, 204–8, 205, 206
decision units, 77, 204–8, 205, 206, 207
“deep state,” 92
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), 19, 199
Defense Department (DoD), 89–90, 95, 97, 118; Strategic Air Command (SAC), 91
defense policymaking, 19
deference, patterns of, 42
definition of the situation, 8
de Graaf, Beatrice, 161
deliberation rules, 110
Democracy Fellows Program (USAID), 226
democratic peace theory, 24, 146, 175–76
dependent variable, 19, 24, 65, 127, 198–99, 208, 220–21
deterrence, 52
dialectical materialism, 185
Dimitriu, George, 161
director of national intelligence (DNI), 92, 95, 97
direct tactics, 160
disciplinary boundaries, 223
discourse analysis, 143
discursive practices, 136
disengagement, 136
dissent, encouraging, 50
Doeser, Fredrik, 136
Dolan, Thomas M., 51
domestic politics, 7, 33, 34, 58, 92, 145–68, 225; actor-mapping exercise, 151–56, 152, 153, 154, 155; actors in, 150–58; domestic polity: characteristics and institutions, 146–50; indirect tactics, 161–62, 163; policy entrepreneurs, 111; public opinion, 34, 148–49; rational choice theory and, 145–46; regime strategy, 158–62, 159; strategy and foreign policy, 162, 162–64; Vietnam War example, 164–68
dramaturgical analysis, 131, 137, 140, 169, 170
Dulles, Allen, 81
Dulles, John Foster, 65
Dunning, David, 48
dyadic relations, 213
Eagleton, Thomas, 62
early warning systems, 27, 59, 114, 199
East, Maurice, 181
The Ecological Perspective on Human Affairs with Special Reference to International Politics (Sprout and Sprout), 14
Edmondson, Amy, 85
Eichenberg, Richard, 149
Entman, Robert M., 109
Erdogan, Tayyip, 177
Esch, Joanne, 135
Essence of Decision (Allison), 18, 99
European Union (EU), 174, 179, 219
Evaluating U.S. Foreign Policy (Vasquez), 227
events (artifacts of decisions), 4–5, 19
ExCom (small group), 82, 110, 170
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Tetlock), 49
explanation, 11, 169–70, 192; explanandum, 4–5; explanans, 5–6, 26, 33–35
Falkland Islands, 161
fatigue, 54
Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), 56, 88–89, 92, 96–98, 108, 119
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), 100
Finland, 136
Flanik, William, 227
Food and Drug Administration (FDA), 108
Ford, Gerald, 84
foreign policy: culture and national identity, interface with, 131–35; domestic politics and, 162, 162–64; establishment, 92, 108–9; national attributes and, 170–80; orientations, 22, 34; system attributes and, 180–83; system transition, effect on, 183–88, 216
Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA): from 1993 to the present, 28–33; actor specificity, 6–7; agent-oriented theory, 6–9; classic scholarship (1954 to1993), 16–28; explanandum, 4–5; explanans, 5–6; first generation, 14–16, 22; fourth generation, 32; future of, 216–29; levels of analysis, 7–8; macrolevel analysis, 169–70; microlevel analysis, 9, 16, 21, 26–27, 169; non–North American scholarship, 9, 33, 35–36, 120–21, 157, 217–18; not acknowledged, 29–30; as possible and valuable to IR, 7–10; road map/beginnings, 14–16; second generation, 16–24; self-reflection (1970s and 1980s), 25–28; theoretical integration, 191–215; third generation, 29–30, 32–33; as U.S.-centric, 33, 121, 157, 217–18. See also classic FPA scholarship (1954 to 1993); future of foreign Policy Analysis (FPA); theoretical integration of FPA
Foreign Policy Analysis (journal), 32, 214, 216, 224
Foreign Policy Analysis: A Comparative Introduction (Breuning), 32–33
Foreign Policy Analysis beyond North America (Brummer and Hudson), 218
Foreign Policy and Bureaucratic Politics (Halperin), 120
Foreign Policy Behavior: The Interstate Behavior Analysis (IBA) Model (Wilkenfeld), 197–99, 198
foreign policy decisionmaking (FPDM), 5, 15, 34, 77–78, 142–43, 191, 196, 214; group nature of, 120–21; individual characteristics and, 21–22; in small groups, 17–18
Foreign Policy Motivation: A General Theory and a Case Study (Cottam), 22
foreign policy substitutability, 8
The Foreign Policy System of Israel (Brecher), 21, 196–98, 197
Foreign Policy: Theories, Actors, Cases (Smith, Hadfield, and Dunne), 217–18
FPA. See Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA)
FPDM. See Foreign Policy Decisionmaking (FPDM)
Franco, Francisco, 41
Freud, Sigmund, 62
Friedman, Richard, 54
F-35 and F-111 aircraft, 148
Fulton, Sarah, 56
fundamental attribution error, 59–60
Funk, Carolyn, 55
future of foreign Policy Analysis (FPA), 216–29; academia, 223–25, 227–29; critical insights and constructivism, 223–25; dependent variable, 220–21; evaluation, 226–27; integration across levels of analysis, 222; interdisciplinarity, 222–23; less developed levels of analysis, 218–19; methodologies, 133–34, 221–22; non–North American FPA scholarship, 217–18; pedagogy, 227–29; policymaking and, 224–26
games, 69; behavioral IR and, 213–14; bureaucratic politics and, 107, 114–16; proximity, cohesiveness, size, viewpoint, and activity, 151–56, 152, 153, 154, 155; “second game,” 115, 120; “two-level,” 7, 26, 34, 146
gender distribution, 175
general theory, 15–16, 25, 28, 123. See also actor-general theory
Geneva Accords (1954), 166, 168
George, Alexander, 6, 21, 62, 74, 139, 224
George, Juliette, 62
Germany, 211
Gilbert, Daniel, 51
globalization, 4, 32–33, 124, 179–80, 219
Global Society (journal), 218
Goldgeier, James, 32
Goldsmith, Jack, 113
Google, 85
Gorilla Experiment, 43
grand unified theory (GUT), 19
Great Man approaches, 39
Great Recession of 2008/Global Financial Crisis (GFC), 55, 179
Grechko, Andrei, 204
Groom, A.J. R., 217
ground of international relations (IR), 3–4, 6
group decisionmaking, 17–19, 33, 34, 40, 42, 75–121; dysfunctional groups, 76–81, 106. See also bureaucratic politics; organizational process; small group dynamics
Group of Soviet Forces, 99
groupthink, 17, 34, 77–86, 116; first Iraq war and, 192–93
Groupthink (Janis), 17, 77, 120, 222–23, 226–27
Guantánamo Bay detention system, 116–21
Guter, Admiral, 118
Gvosdev, Nikolas K., 115
Haas, Mark L., 174
Haddad, Deborah, 86
Hague, William, 224
Haidt, Jonathan, 129
Haiti, 170
Halperin, Morton H., 18–19, 90, 97, 114, 167, 217
Ham, Linda, 103
Haney, Patrick, 159
Hatch, Orrin, 112
Haynes, William J., II, 116, 117–18
health concerns, 175
Herbert, Joseph, 55
Hermann, Charles F., 17, 76–77, 87, 203–8
Hermann, Margaret G., 21–22, 41, 70, 139; analysis of Saddam Hussein, 74; content analysis, 65–68, 66; CREON II, 203–8; Leadership Style/Trait Analysis, 74, 218
heroic history, 125, 134–35, 141–42
Herrmann, Richard, 22
Herskovits, M. J., 126
heuristic fallacies, 34, 44–50
Heymann, Philip, 111, 112, 115
highlands, 171
Hill, Christopher, 4, 5, 14, 148
HIV/AIDS, 175
Holsti, Ole, 65
Homeland Security, Department of (DHS), 93–94, 114
honor, 136
Hoover, Herbert, 63
Hopple, Gerald W., 19, 197, 199
horizon analysis, 143
Houghton, David P., 29
Hudson, Valerie, 47, 58, 67, 92, 108, 129, 140, 216, 218; CREON II project, 203–8; Situational Predisposition (SP), 200–203
Huntington, Samuel, 122
Hurricane Katrina (2005), 100
Husband, Rick, 104
Hussein, King, 64
Hussein, Saddam, 5, 41, 53, 67, 77, 83–84, 125, 163, 171; bureaucratic politics in decisions about, 108–9; case study of, 72–74. See also Iraq invasions
hyper-connectivity, 129
identity, 11, 33, 34; history and discourse analysis, 34; socionational, 12; sub-identity, 93. See also culture and national identity
illness, 53
Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism (Lenin), 186
implementation issues, 5, 5, 18, 34, 148–49
independent variables, 20, 23, 27, 127, 197–98, 201
individual decisionmakers/leaders, 13, 31–33, 34, 39–74; active-passive dimension, 62–63; anamnesis, 63–64; approaching, 62–71; attitudes and mental model, 58–61; body, decisionmaking and, 53–56; character, 61–62; characteristics that matter, 40, 40–42; cognition, 34, 42–44, 43, 58, 60–61; conditions for assessment, 40–42, 41; content analysis, 64–69, 66; diplomatic training, 40, 41; drug use, 54, 64; elderly, 55; emotion and reason, 50–53; expertise, 40, 41–42; First Image, 10, 30; foreign policy orientations, 22; Great Man approaches, 39; “hands-on” style, 40, 42; heuristic fallacies, 34, 44–50; individual characteristics, 21–22, 34; leaders, approaching, 62–71; leadership style, 42, 86; life-and-death stakes for, 58; mental illnesses, 53, 64; mind, components of, 42–61, 43; operational code, 21–22, 34, 69; orientation, 67–68; particularities, 16; perception, 22, 42–44, 43, 58, 60; personality, 61, 64; personal stakes for, 58; positive-negative dimension, 62–63; psychobiography, 62–64; scholarly assessments, 69–70; self-image, 71; situational context, 56–58; “strong man,” 31, 39; subversion and equalizers, 108, 113–14. See also actor-general theory; leaders; personality
Indonesia, 139
information access and control, 94, 109, 111
information poor, ambiguous or uncertain environment, 40, 41
information-processing proclivities, 131
insensitive/sensitive orientations, 41, 204–6, 205, 206
integrated multilevel explanations, 20
integration. See theoretical integration of FPA
intelligence community, 50
interaction analysis, 143
interagency group politics, 34, 76–77, 95–96, 106–7, 117. See also bureaucratic politics
interdisciplinarity, 6, 15–16, 28, 222–23
intermestic level of analysis, 157, 218, 219
international court, 8
International Political Economy (IPE), 179, 218–19
international regimes, 34, 164
International Relations (IR), 123, 169; behavioral IR, 212–15; constructivist turn, 29; culture, studies of, 127; democratic peace thesis, 146; disconnect with FPA, 227–28; FPA as possible and valuable to IR, 7–10; FPA as subfield of, 29–33, 39, 191, 209–11, 216–21, 228; human decisionmakers as ground of, 3–4; practice theory, 29; theoretical integration and, 209–15
International Society of Political Psychology (ISPP), 222
International Studies Association (ISA), 26, 32, 216, 228
international system, 7, 32, 35, 169–70, 216; as anarchy, 10, 25, 34, 180, 188, 211; balance of power systems, 181–82; bipolar systems, 182–83; capitalism, 185–87; dialectical materialism, 185; federated system, 183; foreign policy and, 180–88; hierarchical system, 183; imperialism, 186–87; long cycle theory, 183–85, 184; Marxist views, 185–86; multipolar system, 124, 184; system attributes, 180–83; system transition and its effect on foreign policy, 183–88, 216; unit veto system, 183; universal system, 183
inter-nation culture, 135
The Interpretation of Cultures (Geertz), 128
Iran, 72, 109, 136, 141–42, 151
Iran-Contra scandal, 147
Iraq invasions, 148; Fallujah, 162; 1991, 41, 49, 163, 192–93; 2003, 5, 41, 49, 72–74, 83–84, 98, 164. See also Hussein, Saddam
Ireland, 173; Northern, 143–44
Iron Curtain, 165
ISIS Caliphate, 5
islands, 173
Janis, Irving, 17, 77–83, 222–23
Japan, 122, 137, 138, 161, 165, 171; action scripts, 140–41
Jentleson, Bruce, 32
Jinnah, Muhammad Ali, 135
Johnson, Lyndon B., 63, 86, 87–88, 148, 167
Johnson, Robert H., 114
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), 151–56, 152, 153, 154, 155
Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program, 148
Jordan River, 171
“Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” (Kahneman and Tversky), 44
Kaarbo, Juliet, 29, 30, 157, 209–10, 211, 214–15, 223–24, 225, 228
Kahneman, Daniel, 44, 45, 48, 49
KAL jetliner incident, 1983, 59
Kaplan, Fred, 98
Kennedy, Andrew, 188
Kennedy, John F., 41, 54, 61, 64, 99, 170; Bay of Pigs invasion and, 80–82, 166; Cuban missile crisis and, 83–84, 110, 166; Vietnam War and, 166–67
Kennedy, Robert “Bobby,” 81, 82, 84
Kent, Sherman, 50
Khamenei, Ali, 71
Khayrallah Talfah Msallat, 73
Khong, Yuen Foong, 18
King, Gary, 20
Kingdon, John W., 111
Kluckhohn, Clyde, 126
Koch, Michael, 56
Korany, Bahgat, 217
Köstem, Seçkin, 133
Kosygin, Aleksei, 204
Kowert, Paul, 86
Kruger, Justin, 48
language of acts/social scripts, 135
language use, 128
Lasswell, Harold, 21
lateral pressure, 174
Law of the Sea, 173
lawyers, military, 116, 117–18, 120
leaders. See individual decisionmakers/leaders
Leadership Style/Trait Analysis, 74, 218
leaks, 118
Lehrer, Jonah, 48
Leites, Nathan, 69
LeMay, Curtis, 91
Lenin, Vladimir Ilyich, 186–87
levels of analysis, 6–7, 15–20, 25, 28, 33–37, 34, 218–19; intermestic, 157, 218, 219; macrolevel, 212–13; microlevel, 9, 16, 21, 26–27, 169, 212–13; scope conditions, 219–20, 222; sub-bureaucratic, 115, 219; theoretical integration across, 222; three-fold level framework, 10, 30, 33. See also culture and national identity; domestic politics; group decisionmaking; individual decisionmakers/leaders; international system; national attributes
LeVine, 126
Libyan R2P operation (2011), 136, 149–50
Linton, Ralph, 131
liquefied natural gas (LNG), 178
Lobell, Steven, 211
long cycle theory, 183–85, 184
long-term memory, 45
Lotz, Hellmut, 134
Luker, K., 128
male gender performance, 55–56
Maley, Jacqueline, 160
Man, the State, and War (Waltz), 10
manipulation, levers of, 109–12
Man–Milieu Relationship Hypotheses in the Context of International Politics (Sprout and Sprout), 14
Mann, James, 47
Mansfield, Mike, 167
Mao Zedong, 188
Massie, Justin, 161
materialism, 185
McAdams, Dan, 70
McClosky, Herbert, 6
McCool, William, 104
McCormack, Don, 104
McDermott, Rose, 50
meaning, 17–18; organization of, 128–29; shared systems, 131–35
Mendel, Gregor, 195
meta-bias, 48
Mexico, 134
microlevel analysis, 9, 16, 21, 26–27, 169, 212–13
micromanaging, 42
Middle Eastern leaders, 139
middle-range theory, 15–16, 28
migration, 174
militant internationalism, 60
military leadership, 42
military organization, 93
Milner, Helen, 145, 146, 153, 156–57, 163
Milosevic, Slobodan, 125
mind, components of, 42–61; attitudes and the mental model, 58–61; body and decisionmaking, 53–56; emotion and reason, 50–53; heuristic fallacies, 44–50; perception and cognition, 42–44, 43; situational context, 56–58
Mitterrand, François, 67
Morin, Jean-Frédéric, 219
multicausal explanation, 6, 15–16, 28
multilateralism, 60
multiple regression methodology, 196, 197–98
Munich crisis, 86
Munich Pact, 193
narrative dominance, 161
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA): chain of command, 99–100, 102–5; Challenger shuttle disaster, 104; Columbia shuttle disaster (2003), 100–106
national attributes, 22–24, 34, 35, 169–80; demographics, 174–75; economic capabilities, 177–80; foreign policy and, 170–80; geography, 172–74; military capabilities, 176–77; natural resources, 171–72; political system, 175–76; size, 170
national character studies, 123, 127
National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), 93, 94–95
national efficacy beliefs, 188
National Intelligence Council (NIC), 50, 109
National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), 109
national role conception, 137, 139–40
National Science Foundation (NSF), 19, 20
National Security Agency (NSA), 98
National Security Council (NSC), 119, 147
nation-state, decisionmaking below level of, 14–15, 28
NATO Able Archer exercises, 1983, 59–60
neo-behavioral movement, 212–13
neoclassical realism (NCR, neorealism), 9, 10–12, 28, 180, 209–11
New Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy (Ohio State, 1985), 28
New York Times report on Guantanamo, 116–21
New Zealand, 137
9/11 attacks, 71, 72, 83, 92, 97–98, 116, 218; FBI concerns prior to, 56, 88–89
1984 (Orwell), 77
Nixon, Richard M., 41, 54, 63, 81, 159; as anticommunist, 165–66; China visit, 164, 168; Vietnam War and, 167–68
non–North American FPA scholarship, 9, 33, 35–36, 120–21, 157, 217–18
Norris, William J., 180
North, Robert, 174
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), 134–35
Obama, Barack, 47, 60, 90, 115, 164, 179; Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and, 151; surge decision, 86, 112
Office of Leadership Analysis (CIA), 39–40
Office of Legal Counsel (OLC), 113
Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), 92, 95
Olmert, Ehud, 87
Omestad, Thomas, 40
operational code, 21–22, 34, 69, 139
operational environment, 196–97, 197
Operation Desert Storm, 192
organizational culture, 34, 90–91, 100–101, 106
organizational process, 18, 34, 76, 89–106; in academia, 223; anthropomorphization of, 90; autonomy, 97–106; budget and personnel, 95; chain of command, 99–100, 102–3; Columbia shuttle disaster, 100–106; essence, 18, 90–93, 120; inertia, 98; influence, 94, 95–96; merging cultures, 92–93; morale, 96–97; operation of organizations, 97–98; siloing of information, 94–95, 106; stakeholders, 90; standard operating procedures (SOPs), 99; turf, 90, 93–95, 100, 102; unintended negative consequences, 100
Orwell, George, 77
Oslo Accord negotiations, 84–85
outcomes, 5, 107, 109. See also resultants
outgroups, 132
Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics and International Studies, 228
Paige, Glenn, 17
Pan Am 103 incident, 117
Paquin, Jonathan, 219
Parajon, Eric, 30
parliamentary democracies, 157
patterned actions, 29, 98–99, 131
pattern recognition, 45
The Peacemakers (Jentleson), 32
penetration variable, 195
Pentagon, 118
Pentagon Papers, 167
perception, 22, 42–44, 43, 58, 60
Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Jervis), 22
perceptions and images, 22
Perot, Ross, 134
personality, 61, 64, 220; bureaucratic politics and, 107; content analysis and, 64–69, 66; small group dynamics and, 75–76
Petrov, Stanislov, 114
phenotype, 195
Philippines, 175
physical environment, effect on decisionmaking, 5, 57–58
Pillsbury, Michael, 112
policy, 169
policy entrepreneurs, 111
policymaking, FPA’s influence on, 224–26
Policy Studies, 225
policy windows, 111
poliheuristic framework, 212, 218
political ad campaigns, 134
political culture, 132–34, 137–38
political myth, 135
political psychology, 21, 25, 39, 58, 62, 212
Post, Jerrold, 40, 53, 62, 63, 73–74, 77, 224–25
postdictions, 201
postmodernist critique, 131–32
posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), 54
Powell, Colin, 84, 118, 119, 163
practice theory, 29
prefabricated templates of action, 131, 139–41
The Presidential Character (Barber), 62–63, 226
Presidential Leadership and the Creation of the American Era (Nye), 32
presidents, U.S., 32, 39, 53–54, 226; bureaucratic politics and, 108–9; campaign debates, 134–35; domestic politics and, 147; foreign policy inner circles, 81; influence, 156–57; psychobiographical accounts, 62–63; public opinion and, 148–49
President’s Emergency Operations Center (PEOC), 94, 114
“Pre-Theories and Theories of Foreign Policy” (Rosenau), 14, 15, 26
pre-theorizing, 15, 194–96, 195
process, 192
Project Aristotle (Google), 85
Prosper, Pierre-Richard, 116–17, 118
psychobiography, 34, 62–64; of Saddam Hussein, 73–74
psychological and societal milieux (psycho-milieu), 16, 20–25, 196; individual characteristics, 21–22; national and societal characteristics, 22–24. See also mind, components of
The Psychological Dimension of Foreign Policy (Rivera), 21
psychological learning model, 52–53
psychological safety, 85
public policy, 10, 111, 158, 225
Putin, Vladimir, 31
Putnam, Robert, 23, 26, 146, 151
Pye, Lucian, 123
Qaddafi, Muammar, 171
al-Qaeda, 72
Qingmin, Zhang, 218
qualitative approaches, 192–93, 196–98, 197, 209
“racial psychology” studies, 127
“rally ’round the flag” effect, 148, 164
Rathbun, Brian C., 60
rational actor, 3, 6, 18, 89–90, 209, 213
rational choice theory, 28, 125, 130–31, 212–13; culture and national identity, 141–42; domestic politics and, 145–46; emotions and, 50
Readdy, William, 104
Reagan, Ronald, 13–14, 54, 59–60; administration, 112, 129, 147; Saddam Hussein’s interpretation of, 72–73
realism, 9, 11. See also neoclassical realism (NCR, neorealism)
Regimes and Oppositions (Dahl), 23
relative circumstances, 52, 60
relevance, 27
Renshon, Jonathan, 48
representativeness, 48
Republican Party, 166
Republican Steering Committee, 112
respect, 115
resultants, 109
Rethinking Foreign Policy Analysis: States, Leaders, and the Microfoundations of Behavioral International Relations (Walker, et al.), 212–14
Rhodes, Ben, 92
Rice, Condoleezza, 87, 118, 119
Ripsman, Norrin, 211
Rivera, Joseph de, 21
Rivera, William Anthony, 136
Roosevelt, Franklin Delano, 63, 64, 91, 117, 165
Rosenau, James N., 14, 15, 19, 24, 26, 194–96, 195, 208
Rosenboim, Or, 32
Rossa, Paul, 197
Rostow, Walt, 88
Rudd, Kevin, 42
Ruger, William, 92
rule-based production systems, 199–203, 200
Rumsfeld, Donald, 84, 117, 119, 129
Rusk, Dean, 81
Russell, Richard B., 167
Sampson, Martin W., 137
Sapin, Burton, 7, 8, 14–15, 17
scenario-based survey, 140
schematic maps, 133
Schlesinger, Arthur, Jr., 81
Schomburg, Calvin, 106
Schwartz, Barry, 51
Scowcroft, Brent, 84
self-image, 80
Senate Judiciary Committee, 118
Serbia, 124
sex hormones, 55
sex ratio, 175
Shaw, Tim, 217
Shiller, Robert, 55
single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), 55
Situational Predisposition (SP), 200–203
Skinner, B. F., 126
SLOCs (sea lines of communication), 173
Slovak culture, 138
“slow thinking,” 45
small group dynamics, 17–18, 34, 75–89, 76; acceptance, need for, 17, 34, 77–80; corporate sector, 85; fear of failure, 80–81; gamesmanship, 86–87; group efficacy, 87–88; groupthink, 77–86; mind-guard role, 42, 81, 84; newgroup syndrome, 34, 86; personality and, 75–76; polythink, 34, 88–89, 120; roles, 76–77
Smith, Martin A., 84
Snyder, Richard C., 7, 8, 14–15, 17
Social and Behavioral Sciences Team (Obama administration), 60
social constructivist analysis, 10
social roles and rules, 58
social sciences, 3, 8–9, 28, 221, 227
“Soldiers of Odin,” 125
South Africa, 171
Southeast Asian Treaty Organization (SEATO), 166
Soviet Union, 59–60, 99, 211; Bolshevik operational code, 139; collapse, 28, 133; Egypt and, 203–8; North Atlantic naval exercises, 135. See also Cuba: Bay of Pigs invasion; Cuban missile crisis (1962)
Spanish-American War of 1898, 186
Sprout, Margaret, 14, 15–16, 21
stakeholders: bureaucratic politics, 107–8, 114; organizational process, 90
Stalin, Josef, 177
standard operating procedures (SOPs), 18, 34, 99–100
Stasser, Garold, 85
state: as abstraction, 3, 6–7, 14–15; as “actor,” 3, 6–7, 13; “black-boxing”/billiard ball model, 3, 6, 10, 11, 29; identity, 29; levels of analysis, 14–15; material and ideational factors, 7, 10
State Department, 97, 111, 112, 152; Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR), 95–96; “China Hands,” 100, 166
stereotypes, 43
Stinger missiles, 112
Stitch, Steve, 104
Strategic Rocket Forces (SRF) (Soviet Union), 99
strategic social construction, 124
subnational analysis, 143
Subotić, Jelena, 124
subversion and equalizers, 108, 113–14
Sudan, 171
Sukarno, 139
Suslov, Mikhail, 204
Sylvan, David, 133
Sylvan, Donald, 86
system-level phenomena, 12, 28, 180–81. See also international system
Taliaferro, Jeffrey, 211
technology, 180
Tenet, George, 84
testosterone, 55
Tetlock, Philip, 49
Texas, economy, 177
’t Hart, Paul, 77
Thatcher, Margaret, 161
theoretical integration of FPA, 6, 18, 35, 191–215, 225; across levels of analysis, 222; ad hoc nature of, 208–9; behavioral IR, 212–15; cross-level, 191–93; International Relations theory and, 209–15; multiple regression methodology, 196, 197–98; neoclassical realism, 209, 210–11; obstacles, 193–94; quantitative vs. qualitative, 196–99; rule-based production systems, 199–203, 200
Theory of Cues (CUE), 213
Theory of Inferences about Preferences (TIP), 213
Theory of International Politics (Waltz), 145
Theory of Moves (Brams), 213
The Theory of Social and Economic Organizations (Weber), 18
Thies, Cameron G., 214
“think aloud” protocols, 69, 209
three-fold level of analysis framework, 10, 30, 33
Tierney, John, 54
Tillerson, Rex, 96
“torture memo” (2002), 113
touchstones, 129
traits, 61; content analysis of, 65–69, 66
transnational class struggle, 187
Triandis, Harry C., 126–27, 130, 132
True, Jacqui, 224
Trump, Donald, 30, 31–32, 39, 40, 55, 70, 92, 97, 147, 160, 163, 216
Tufte, Edward, 104
Tunander, Ola, 135
Tunisia, 180
turf, 34, 90, 93–95, 100, 102; in academia, 223
Turkic World, 133
Tversky, Amos, 44
Twitter, 180
UNITA, 178
United Nations, 176
United Nations Special Commission on Iraq, 72
United Nations system, 170
United States: action scripts, 140–41; actor-general theory, 28; borders, 147, 173; coercive diplomacy, 176; events data collection, 19–20; heroic myths, 134–35; national security policy, 140; Northern Ireland and, 144; presidents, 32, 39, 53–54; primacy, 32; public opinion data, 23–24, 26; U.S.-Israeli relations, 145
unit-level variables, 210
universalist values, 60
UN Security Council, 173
US STRATCOM, 102
Van Belle, Douglas, 158
Vance, Cyrus, 111
variables: dependent, 19, 24, 65, 127, 198–99, 208, 220–21; independent, 20, 23, 27, 127, 197–98, 201; interval-or ratio-level, 221; penetration, 195; unit-level, 210
Verbs in Context System (VICS), 69, 71, 139, 213, 218
Vertzberger, Yaacov, 86, 132–33, 139, 219, 221, 224
Victims of Groupthink (Groupthink) (Janis). See Groupthink (Janis)
Vietnam War, 19, 87–88, 97, 148, 164–68; “China Hands,” 100, 166; opinion data, 24; Tonkin Gulf incident, 87; war policy recommendations, 133
Vijayalakshmi, K. P., 218
Villard, Henry S., 114
visual representation, 104
V-22 Osprey, 147
Walker, Stephen, 69, 137, 212–14
Waltz, Kenneth, 10–12, 25, 145; three-fold level of analysis framework, 10, 30, 33
war, propensity for, 24
War on Terrorism, 83, 116, 148, 163
water access, 172
Wayne, Carly, 88
weapons of mass destruction (WMD), 176
Weinberger, Casper, 147
Wendt, Alexander, 10–13, 29, 188
Wheeler, Earle, 88
When Proliferation Causes Peace (Cohen), 53
whistle-blowers, 100
Whorf, B. L., 128
Whorfian hypothesis, 128
Why Leaders Fight (Horowitz, Ellis, and Stam), 29
WikiLeaks, 180
Wilhelm, Kaiser, 186
Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, 196, 197–99, 199
Williams, Kenneth, 56
Winter, David, 61
Wolfowitz, Paul, 84
word-count content, 67, 69–70, 74
World Trade Organization (WTO), 152, 156, 164, 177
World War I (1914–1917), 186
Xi Jinping, 69