Contents

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List of Figures and Tables

Acknowledgments

About the Authors

PART I: Overview and Evolution of Foreign Policy Analysis

1 Introduction: The Situation and Evolution of Foreign Policy Analysis: A Road Map

Hallmarks of Foreign Policy Analysis Theory

Explanandum: That Which Is to Be Explained in FPA

Explanans: That Which Will Provide Explanation in FPA

FPA Is Possible and Valuable to IR (and Comparative and Policy Studies)

An Example: Waltz, Wendt, and FPA

A Road Map of FPA: FPA’s Beginnings and Three Paradigmatic Works

Classic FPA Scholarship (1954–1993)

Group Decisionmaking

Comparative Foreign Policy

The Psychological and Societal Milieux of Foreign Policy Decisionmaking

FPA Self-Reflection in the Late 1970s and 1980s

Foreign Policy Analysis from 1993 to the Present

A Road Map of the Book

PART II: Levels of Analysis

2 The Individual Decisionmaker: The Political Psychology of World Leaders

When and Which?

Exploring the Components of the Mind

Perception and Cognition

Heuristic Fallacies

Emotion and Reason

The Body and Decisionmaking

The Situational Context

Attitudes and the Mental Model—and What Lies Beneath

Approaching Leaders

Psychobiography

Content Analysis

Other Techniques

Case Study: Saddam Hussein

3 Group Decisionmaking: Small Group Dynamics, Organizational Process, and Bureaucratic Politics

Small Group Dynamics

Organizational Process

Essence

Turf

Budget and Personnel

Influence

Morale

Autonomy

Bureaucratic Politics

Stakeholders

Action Channels

Resultants

Levers of Manipulation

Coalitions

Subversion and Equalizers

The Games

Case Study: Detention of Foreign Terrorists at Guantánamo

4 Culture and National Identity

Conceptualizing Culture and National Identity

The Study of Culture

The Interface: Culture and Foreign Policy

Shared Systems of Meaning in Foreign Policy and Foreign Policymaking

Differences in Values and Preferences in Foreign Policy and Foreign Policymaking

Prefabricated Templates of Action in Foreign Policy and Foreign Policymaking

Thoughts on Moving Ahead

5 Domestic Politics

The Domestic Polity: Characteristics and Institutions

Actors in Domestic Politics

Case Study: Iran, U.S. Domestic Politics and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

Regime Strategy on the Domestic Game Board

Strategy and Foreign Policy

Case Study: U.S. Involvement in Vietnam

6 The Levels of National Attributes and International System: Effects on Foreign Policy

National Attributes and Foreign Policy

Size

Natural Resources

Geography

Demographics

Political System

Military Capabilities

Economic Capabilities

The International System and Foreign Policy

System Attributes and Their Effect on Foreign Policy

Concepts of System Transition and Transition’s Effect on Foreign Policy

PART III: Putting It All Together, or Not

7 Theoretical Integration in Foreign Policy Analysis

Cross-Level Integration: Promise and Frustration

Obstacles to Systematized, Cross-Level Theoretical Integration in Foreign Policy Analysis

Rosenau’s Pre-Theories

Brecher and Wilkenfeld: The Question of Quantitative versus Qualitative Integration

Rule-Based Production Systems

CREON II Efforts

A Promise yet to Be Fulfilled

Integrating FPA Theory and IR Theory

Neoclassical Realism

Behavioral IR

8 The Future of Foreign Policy Analysis

Foreign Policy Analysis beyond North America

Less Developed Levels of Analysis

Scope Conditions

The Dependent Variable

Methodology

Integration across Levels of Analysis

Real Interdisciplinarity

Critical Insights and Constructivism

Policymaking

Evaluation

Pedagogy

Bibliography

Index