We understand the nature of a problem, and we carefully contemplate an ideal solution. Everyone should see how great an idea it is, and there should be no opposition.
Unfortunately, we often assume everyone is rational all of the time. A good idea will be supported because it is a good idea.
Experience eventually teaches us that those around us will make irrational decisions, often born in fears that have no realistic basis. Be prepared to sell your ideas not only in response to legitimate questions but also to ill-conceived fears others might express.
World-renowned economist John Maynard Keynes used to explain what the stock market is really about by comparing it to a contest British newspapers used to run. Contestants were given dozens of pictures of women and asked to choose the six that other people would think are the most beautiful. The person whose answers most closely resembled the collective opinion of the other contestants was the winner.
Keynes said, “It is not a case of choosing those which, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.”
In this game or in the stock market, Keynes argued, the task wasn’t to figure out what was rationally best or what other people would think was rationally the best. Instead, the game and the stock market reflect the beliefs, ridiculously flawed though they may be, of the average person anticipating what other average people might think.
Research on the hiring process shows that a fear-based concern, often of the consequences of hiring a person who is too talented, is a factor in more than 20 percent of hiring decisions, despite there being no strategic or rational basis for the decision.
Baker 2000