Index
Abraham, Jack, 103
Abramson, Lyn, 36
Accenture, 114
active thinking, 33
adaptation
embracing disequilibrium and, 57–59
generating leadership and, 59–62
increasing understanding of, 55, 56, 59–61
leadership in fostering, 54–57
Adobe, 115
Advanced Micro Devices, 57
advantage
implementation snags in gaining, 11
adversity
Amabile, Teresa, 71
ambidexterity, 138
American Customer Satisfaction Index, 99
Andreessen, Marc, 65
Anheuser-Busch InBev, 147
Antonovsky, Aaron, 36
Apple Computer, 14
assessment
of rivals’ vulnerabilities, 4–6
assumptions, 141
Atari, 63
attachment behavior, 126
attributional styles, 36
Audm, 148
authenticity, 128
automation, 67
Aventis, 13
backcasting, 136
Bain, 19
balance sheet, scenarios on, 3
banking losses, 2
Barrett, Craig, 113
Beck, Aaron, 36
benchmarking, 101
Bernstein, Shai, 21
Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, 57–59
Billington, Corey, 64
Blaze Pizza, 146
Blockbuster, 108
Bloom, Nicholas, 22
Boston Consulting Group, 1, 12–13
BP, 88
Brenneman, Greg, 99
Browne, John, 88
Budros, Art, 69
Built from Scratch (Bernard and Blank), 99
bureaucracy, 101
Bureau of Labor Statistics, 69
Burns, David, 36
business models, 15
M&A and, 155
Cahuc, Pierre, 24
capabilities, renewing, 106, 108–109, 112–113, 115
capacity utilization, 10
capital. See also financial factors
access to, 21
Career View, 77
Carnival, 14
Casciaro, Tiziana, 122
Cascio, Wayne, 71
cash position, monitoring and maximizing, 4, 6–8. See also debt
cause-oriented thinking, 38–39
cease routines/projects, 159–160
Centre for Economic Policy Research, 24
change, strategy for workforce, 72–81. See also adaptation; reinventing your business; reorganizations
Chizen, Bruce, 115
Cisco, 102
coaching
for resilience, 34
uncertainty and, 33
collaborating questions, 33, 35, 37, 39
commitment, 70
communication
about strengths and weaknesses, 86
of bad news, 63
culture of courageous conversations and, 59
in increasing understanding of change, 55, 56, 59–61
with investors, compelling, 12
leaders who shut down and, 55
“Competent Jerks, Lovable Fools, and the Formation of Social Networks” (Casciaro and Lobo), 122
competition
assessing vulnerabilities of, 4–6
benchmarking against, 101
in economic slowdowns, 109
market valuation maximization and, 12–13
tracking the basis of in your industry, 106
transformation of work by global, 67
complexity, creeping, 94–95, 100
Conan Doyle, Arthur, 57
Conaty, Bill, 117
concentration camp victims, 122
confidants, 62
conflict, depersonalizing, 58–59
consumer tastes, 109
context routines/projects, 159
contingency planning, 136
good bosses and, 55, 56, 61–62
coping, 36
core operations and identity
distinguishing essential from expendable, 55–56
core routines/projects, 159
corporate citizenship, 126–128
cutting, employees in decisions about, 157–160
Covid-19 pandemic, 129–130, 143, 149–150
cost-cutting decisions and, 157–158
preparing for the world after, 161–163
credit
credit default swaps, 8
crisis management teams, 16
crisis simulations, 136
crowdsourcing, 160
crucible experiences, 117
cultural fit, hiring for, 116–117
culture
changes after the Covid-19 pandemic, 162
of courageous conversations, 59
customers
focus on, protecting your job and, 123
judgment of business behavior during crises by, 163
serving, at Home Depot, 98–100
superconsumers, 146
viewing as underserved, 96
data, operational, 159
debt
deleveraging before a downturn, 20–22
in the Great Recession, 21
decentralization, 22
deflation, emotional, 31–32, 36–37
Department of Homeland Security, 135
Diabetes, Attitudes, Wishes, and Needs (DAWN) initiative, 111–112
Dillon, Karen, 48
Donovan, John, 72
dot-com bubble, 17
downturns
cost-cutting decisions in, 157–160
current, distinctive characteristics of, 2
as opportunities, 29
reinventing your business and, 105–119
stimulating cash flow in, 145–148
surviving and thriving after, 17–27
understanding and appreciation of, 11
EBITDA, 150
edge-centric strategy, 110–113
efficiency
technology and, 26
Egon Zehnder International, 57, 60, 61–62
Ellis, Albert, 36
emotional bonding, 126
emotional intelligence, 126
emotions
bringing leaders’ to the workplace, 62–63
empathy, 54
empathy, 54
stimulating cash flow and, 145
employees. See also layoffs
communicating with, 59, 86, 88
as contractors, 77
as corporate citizens, 126–128
in cost-cutting decisions, 157–160
in edge-centric strategy, 112–113
effects of layoffs on remaining, 24–25, 70–71
empathy of for leaders, 59, 124–126
empathy with, 54
gaining commitment of, 11
investing in for the future, 14
nurturing supply of talent and, 106, 109–110
protecting your job in a recession, 121–128
in relationships of unequal power, 52–55
showing compassion to, 55, 56, 62–64
theft rates by, 62
environmental forces, 141, 161–162
ESPN, 147
experience, limits of in planning, 131–132
expertise, decentralization, decision making, and, 23
exploitation, scenario planning and, 138–140
fallacy of centrality, 53
financial factors
compassion and, 62
quantifying impact on, 3
reorganizations and, 84–85, 89
flexibility, performance pay and, 25
flexible assignments, 78
Flight 1549, 60
forecasting, 136
founder’s mentality, 94
obsessing over your front line and, 97–100
scorecard for, 101
Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts, 117
Four Seasons: The Story of a Business Philosophy (Sharpe), 117
franchises, 102
Freud, Sigmund, 122
front line, obsessing over your, 97–100
full maritime domain awareness, 137–138, 139
Futures Strategy Group (FSG), 135
GE, 117
Gerstner, Lou, 15
gift cards, 146
Gittleman, Maury, 25
global financial crisis of 2007–2009, 149–150
Great Recession, 19
distinctive characteristics of, 2
private equity firms in, 21
Greenberg, Jerald, 62
obsessing over your front line and, 97–100
through your insurgent mission, 94–97
Haas, John C., 42
Hambrecht, Jürgen, 44
hardiness, 36
Heath, Chip, 60
Heath, Dan, 60
Heidari-Robinson, Stephen, 83–91
Hellgren, Johnny, 70
Henderson, Rebecca, 20
Henretta, Deborah, 118
High Performance Business research program, 114
high-touch consumer businesses, 98
horizon scanning, 137
Hudson Institute, 133
humility, 124
IBM, 15
identity
changes in after the pandemic, 162
Illinois Tool Works, 118
imagination, institutionalization of, 130
Immelt, Jeff, 117
implementation, 11
of strategies for the future, 142
inaction, 1
initiatives
comprehensive planning around, 11
accelerating, 147
integration, post-acquisition, 155
intellectual property, 109
investments, 5
reining in, 10
iPod, 14
iTunes, 14
Jobs, Steve, 98
job satisfaction, 70
Jordan, Michael, 147
judgment, planning in uncertainty and, 131–132
Kahn, Robert, 55
Kassar, Ray, 63
Keynes, John Maynard, 17
Khan, Sajid, 71
Khoshaba, Deborah, 36
Komisar, Randy, 65
Kraatz, Matthew S., 71
Kramarz, Francis, 24
The Last Dance (documentary), 147
communicating about, 59, 62–64
economic conditions variations and, 75–81
laws against, 68
plans for handling, 127
protecting your job and, 121–128
providing predictability and, 57–59
reorganizations compared with, 83
statistics on, 69
workforce change philosophy and, 72–74
“Layoffs That Don’t Break Your Company” (Sucher and Gupta), 24
leaders and leadership
attention of followers to, 54–55
being a good boss in a bad economy, 51–66
embracing disequilibrium and, 57–59
emergency phase of, 52
empathy in, 54
in fostering adaptation, 54–57
getting to the front line, 101
lack of preparation and commitment in, 11
organizing to avoid overload, 115–116
protecting your job in a recession, 121–128
in providing predictability, 55, 56–59
relying on what’s worked in the past and, 52–54
on strengths and weaknesses, 86
lean staffing, 76
learned helplessness, 36
legacy practices, loyalty to, 55
Lerner, Josh, 21
Levi Strauss, 57
Lexus, 108
Liveris, Andrew, 41–42, 44, 45, 47
Lobo, Miguel Sousa, 122
Lochhead, Christopher, 145–148
Love, E. Geoffrey, 71
loyalty
good bosses and, 64
to legacy practices, 55
Lucking, Brian, 22
Macromedia, 115
Made to Stick (Heath and Heath), 60
Makridis, Christos, 25
management
emotional traps in adversity and, 31–33, 36–37
investing in for the future, 14
layoffs and performance discussions by, 76
lenses for viewing adversity and, 29–31, 34
marketing costs, 147
market valuation, 4
maximizing relative to rivals, 12–13
McKinsey, 21–22, 69, 83, 88–89, 90
McKinstry, Nancy, 90
mental models, 141
mergers and acquisitions, 102, 149–155
active, performance and, 150–154
customer acquisition through, 148
in the global financial crisis, 149–150, 151–154
pursuing opportunistic and transformative, 14–15
Mezzanotti, Filippo, 21
Milo, 103
founder’s, 94
Mintzberg, Henry, 161
Miracle on the Hudson, 60
mission, rediscovering your insurgent, 94–97
modeling, synergy, 155
Modestino, Alicia Sasser, 25–26
Mondavi, Robert, 98
Moore, Gordon, 113
“Mourning and Melancholia” (Freud), 122
Narayen, Shantanu, 115
Näswall, Katharina, 70
National Compensation Survey, 25
National Strategy for Maritime Security, 139
Nationwide Automatic Identification System, 139
Naumann, Earl, 71
NetApp, 51
Netflix, 108
Nevoux, Sandra, 24
New York Times Company, 148
novelty, 132
Noyce, Robert, 113
nuclear war scenarios, 132–133
Olson, Matthew S., 105
OPEC oil embargo, 133
operating models, 160
operational data, 159
operational improvements, 23–25
opportunity costs, 26
optimism, 62
organizational culture, 116–117
organizational structure, 22–23, 118
distributing leadership and, 60
function and, 87
reorganizations and options for, 86–88
scenario planning and, 138–139
ownership, 61
Oxford Scenarios Programme, 141
participation, enthusiastic, 126–128
PayPal, 104
Pedersen, Cartsten Lund, 161–163
Pepper, John E., Jr., 54
performance
effects of downturn decisions on, 77
reorganizations and, 83
personal responsibility, 100–101
perspective, 162
Peterson, Christopher, 36
Pfeffer, Jeffrey, 55
plans, for bouncing back, 162. See also strategic planning
P&O Princess Cruises, 14
power
showing empathy for people with, 59, 124–126
practice, in building resilience, 40
predictability, creating, 55, 56–59
preparedness, 162
cash flow stimulation with, 146
priorities, strategic, 159–160
problem solving, 60
Procter & Gamble, 54, 60–61, 108
productivity
effects of layoffs on, 58–59, 70–71
effects of leadership on, 54
embracing disequilibrium and, 57–59
reorganizations and, 83
profitability
compassion and, 62
internal dysfunction and, 94
layoffs and, 70
profit and loss statements, 84–85, 89
Ramirez, Rafael, 141
RAND Corporation, 132
realism, 62
recessions
definition of, 17
protecting your job in, 121–128
surviving and thriving after, 17–27
crisis management teams in, 16
effects of decisions made in downturns on, 77
investing for the future and, 13–14, 25–27
obsessing over your front line and, 97–100
reinventing your business and, 105–119
through an insurgent mission, 94–97
Recruit Holdings, 77
reflexive thinking/responses, 31, 34
reinventing your business, 105–119
change at the top and, 113–116
edge-centric strategy in, 110–113
hidden capabilities curve and, 108–109
hidden competition curve and, 106–108
research on, 114
talent supply and, 106, 109–110
why now?, 109
Reivich, Karen, 36
considering multiple options in, 86–88
current weaknesses/strengths and, 85–86
getting the sequence right in, 88–89
pitfalls in, 90
profit and loss statements for, 84–85
reputation, 71
coaching, 34
internalizing the questions and, 39–40
lenses for, 34
practicing, 40
research on, 36
resources, 138
response-oriented thinking, 38–39
responses
aggressive, benefits of, 1
reinventing your company, 105–119
results-based pricing, 10
résumés, updating, 127
revenue models, 146
“Roaring Out of Recession” (Gulati, Nohria, and Wohlgezogen), 17, 19
routines, 158
Royal Caribbean, 14
Royal Dutch Shell, 133
sanctuaries, 62
Sanofi-Synthélabo, 13
scenario planning
conceptions of time for, 140
as cycles of strategic renewal, 133–134
definition of, 137
exploration to exploitation in, 138–140
stages in, 130
vocabulary used for, 136
in preparing for recessions, 19
for workforce change strategy, 75–81
Schlumberger, 110
self-awareness, 127
self-funding transformation projects, 26–27
September 11, 2001 attacks, 134–135
SG&A (selling, general, and administrative) expenses, 8–9
Sharp, Isadore, 117
Shatté, Andrew, 36
signal/safety hypothesis, 56
Simpson, Daniela, 146
Skype, 102
“Small Wins” (Weick), 61
SPaM, 64
specifying questions, 33, 35, 36, 37, 39
reinventing your business and, 105–119
symptoms of, 93
Stall Points (Olson and van Bever), 105
Starner, Tom, 77
stock prices, 70
strategic foresight, 130
continuous iteration of, 137–138, 142–143
strategic planning
for after the pandemic, 161–163
building adaptability and, 56–57
for dealing with job loss, 127
learning from the future and, 129–143
limits of experience in, 131–132
protecting your job with, 121–128
short-term, 129
workforce change strategy, 72–81
communication and understanding, 60–61
embracing disequilibrium and, 57–59
emotional responses of leaders to, 55
perception of control and responses to, 35–36
providing predictability and, 55, 56–59
reorganizations and, 83
Strully, Kate, 71
superconsumers, 146
supply chains, cost reduction and, 9
survivors, acting like, 122–124
Sverke, Magnus, 70
synergy modeling, 155
talent curve, 106, 109–110, 116–118
Tata, Ratan, 115
Tata Group, 115
technology
investing for the future with, 13–14, 25–27
reinventing companies and, 109
Tetlock, Philip, 59
theft rates, 62
Thomas, Bob, 117
time, conceptions of, 140
total shareholder return, 150, 153–154
Toyota, 108
training
costs of, 70
crucible experiences in, 117
as layoff alternative, 71–72, 80
transactional actors, 141
transaction diligence, 154–155
Transformation 2015, 97
trend analysis, 137
Trevor, Charlie, 70
TUNA (turbulent, uncertain, novel, and ambiguous), 129
turnover rates, 70
unbundling, 10
uncertainty
embracing disequilibrium and, 57–59
empathizing with leaders during, 59, 124–126
entrepreneurial potential in, 143
identifying, 141
limits of experience and, 131–132
novelty and, 132
relying on what’s worked in the past and, 33, 52–54
of current weaknesses and strengths, 85–86
unemployment, 20–21. See also layoffs
costs of, 71
UPS, 118
urgency, 53
U.S. Air Force, 132
exploration to exploitation in, 138–140
values, in workforce change philosophy, 72–74
van Bever, Derek, 105
Van Reenen, John Van, 22
visualizing questions, 33, 35, 37, 39
volatility, layoff alternatives and, 76–78
VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity), 129
vulnerabilities, assessing, 2–6
Wack, Pierre, 133
Wal-Mart, 108
war games, 137
Weick, Karl, 61
Weiner, Bernard, 35
Welch, Jack, 117
Williams, Paul, 71
WoLF (Women’s Leadership Forum) packs, 56–57
Wolters Kluwer, 90
workforce change strategy, 72–81
for different economic conditions, 75–81
World Management Survey, 22
Yoffie, David, 113
Zoom, 148