7 Climate Change Risk Perceptions in Nature-Based Tourism Systems: A Case Study from Western Maine
University of Maine, Orono, ME, USA
* E-mail: lydia.horne@maine.edu
Climate change risk perceptions are views directed to processing information and making sense of climate change as an external threat, phenomenon and situation (Shakeela and Becken, 2015). Risk perceptions of climate change can impact the extent to which tourism businesses and destinations implement mitigation and adaptation strategies. The effects of climate change are already being felt worldwide in the tourism industry, especially destinations that rely on nature-based tourism (Bicknell and McManus, 2006; Shakeela and Becken, 2015). In many destinations, local actors and community residents are reliant on tourism as a tool for economic development (UNWTO, 2016). Climate change is likely to change visitor behaviour to and at tourism destinations, while also influencing supply-side management decisions. At the same time that tourism is being impacted by climate change, the industry acknowledges its role in contributing to greenhouse gas emissions (UNWTO, 2016). Therefore, understanding tourism stakeholders’ and visitors’ climate change risk perceptions and resulting behaviours can have important implications for long-term tourism destination sustainability and mitigation practices.
We begin this chapter by introducing the case study area of Western Maine and its site characteristics, followed by a brief description of the climate change risk perception model and research methodologies utilized with tourism stakeholders and recreation users. Our chapter will then discuss results from our research to identify perceptions of risks and challenges associated with changes in climate, what variables influence perceptions of risk, and tourism stakeholder and recreation user behavioural intention as associated with climate change perceptions. The final section integrates results from both qualitative (tourism stakeholder) and quantitative research (recreation users) approaches to provide a richer understanding of climate change risk perceptions to guide more effective sustainable tourism planning efforts in light of changing conditions in tourism destinations.
The state of Maine, located in north-east US, is divided into eight tourism regions, including the Lakes and Mountains Region in Western Maine along the New Hampshire border (see Fig. 7.1). Our case study area of Western Maine is a four-season destination with over half of tourists and recreation users visiting the area to engage primarily in outdoor recreation activities (Maine Office of Tourism, 2012). The region received over 4.8 million visitors in 2017 (2.3 million being day visitors), with the majority of visitors residing in Maine, New Hampshire and Massachusetts (Maine Office of Tourism, 2018). Visitors to the destination spent over $670 million, which supported over 69 million in taxes, $251 million in total earnings and over 13,000 jobs (DPA, 2018).
Fig. 7.1. Location of the state of Maine within North America, and division of the state according to the eight official tourism regions. Highlighted in green is the case study tourism destination in Western Maine, the Maine Lakes and Mountains Region.
The majority of visitors to the region are particularly interested in participating in active nature-based, outdoor activities such as winter activities, outdoor swimming and hiking/backpacking. More popular winter activities in 2017 included alpine skiing or snowboarding, Nordic skiing and snowmobiling. Outdoor recreation activities that are becoming more popular in the area include mountain biking, camping, hiking, exploring parks and outdoor fun centres targeting visitors travelling with children (Maine Office of Tourism, 2018). Top attractions included state parks, ski resorts and trails. Though a four-season destination, visitation is higher during the winter season, making the tourism destination especially vulnerable to changes in climate conditions.
Since 1895, the average annual temperature in Maine has increased by 1.67°C and is expected to increase another 1.67–2.78°C by 2050 (Fernandez et al., 2015). Maine’s winter tourism industry faces a shorter season with projected decreases in precipitation and temperature. In Maine, snowfall total has declined by 2.54 cm since 1895 and with rising temperatures, the snow season has decreased by 2 weeks since 1895 (Fernandez et al., 2015). Though overall snowfall is expected to continue to decrease, Maine will likely experience more frequent winter storms and mixed precipitation. Changes in winter snowfall total and season length are jeopardizing winter recreation, especially in mountain regions of Western Maine that rely on ski tourism.
We used a mixed-methods research approach to understand both nature-based tourism stakeholder and recreation user climate change risk perceptions and behavioural intent. Nature-based tourism is a type of tourism that utilizes natural features such as mountains, lakes, beaches, rivers and weather as primary tourism attractions. We first applied a phenomenological research methodology (Moustakas, 1994) via tourism stakeholder in-depth interviews with an embedded pile sort activity (Bernard, 2011). Second, we conducted a mail resident survey (Dillman et al., 2014) to measure recreation use, perceptions of risk and future recreation behaviour in light of changes in resource conditions. Data from interviews, pile sort and survey were integrated for a holistic understanding of the case – Western Maine tourism destination.
Our research employed a modified version of van der Linden’s (2015) social-psychological theoretical framework to understand climate change risk perceptions within the nature-based tourism industry. The risk perceptions model we used included van der Linden’s proposed constructs of socio-demographics, cognition, experiential processing and social structures, and Mase and colleagues’ (2015) trust in climate change communication sources construct.
Socio-demographic factors that influence risk perceptions can include gender, political affiliation, levels of education, income and age. Being female and liberal increases climate change risk perceptions (Safi et al., 2012; van der Linden, 2015), while age may influence risk perceptions of climate change (De Urioste-Stone et al., 2015). Belief in anthropogenic climate change and more knowledge of climate change are associated with increased levels of concern and higher perceived risk (Milfont, 2012; Pidgeon, 2012; Safi et al., 2012; van der Linden, 2015). Experiencing an event first-hand that is the result of climate change usually equates to higher risk perceptions (Milfont, 2012; Pidgeon, 2012; Spence et al., 2012; van der Linden, 2015). Further, the more people act upon the risk of climate change, the more prevalent the issue becomes in society and the more amplified an individual’s risk perceptions (van der Linden, 2015). In addition, trust in climate change communicators, such as scientists or media outlets, influences how information is internalized and how information shapes risk perceptions (Johnson, 2012; Mase et al., 2015).
Tourism stakeholders in Western Maine were generally informed of global climate change impacts but lacked knowledge of specific local climate change impacts (Horne et al., 2019). Business owners felt more informed about climate change and more aware of its impacts on the region compared with tourism managers (Horne et al., 2019). This difference in knowledge could be explained by a daily connection to the environment through being nature-based tourism business owners who are constantly in the field, experiencing nature and the natural tourism assets. In contrast, town and regional planners do not work directly with the environment and oftentimes have different tasks in promoting nature-based tourism in the area, hence having more office-based work responsibilities.
Due to limited local climate change knowledge and low trust in climate change information, participants relied on first-hand experiences with impacts to inform their risk perceptions. Participants frequently discussed environmental changes they were observing in the region and how those changes connected back to large-scale environmental and climatic changes. Changes in snowfall, unpredictable winters and shifting seasons were experienced by nearly all tourism stakeholders interviewed (Horne, 2017). Of highest concern were the climate change impacts perceived to be directly connected to winter nature-based tourism (Horne et al., 2019). Changes in temperatures, precipitation, storm frequency and severity, and shifting seasons were especially salient to participants (Horne, 2017).
Most participants were uncertain about future climate change impacts to the region, which posed a challenge as they conceptualized the future of their business or organization (see Table 7.1). Uncertainty of how climatic changes could impact the region poses a problem for mitigation and adaptation behaviours, as did the unpredictability of the winter season, lack of financial resources and difficulty planning long-term. Results from the pile sorts indicated that low perceived control over many climate change causes and impacts was a significant barrier to mitigation and adaptation actions (Horne et al., 2018). With limited resources and knowledge, it can be difficult to invest in long-term adaptation and mitigation strategies. Finding ways to overcome and minimize barriers to climate change action while increasing facilitators to action will be important opportunities for Western Maine’s nature-based tourism industry to bolster its regional resilience.
Table 7.1. Facilitators and challenges for nature-based tourism stakeholders.
| Facilitators | Challenges |
| Collaboration (i.e. with Chambers of Commerce, other tourism business owners) | Lack of collaboration |
| Conservation ethic among residents | Competition between tourism businesses |
| Institutional support, especially at the regional and industry level | Lack of institutional support at the state level |
| Knowledge of overall climate change | Uncertainty about climate change |
| Financial incentives | Negative attitudes towards tourism by residents and visitors |
| Financial resources | Lack of resources (i.e. financial, staffing, space and difficulty reaching target markets) |
| Natural assets to support nature-based tourism | Winter weather dependence and the unpredictability of the winter seasons |
| ‘Wearing many hats’ (juggling many tasks) making it difficult to plan long term | |
| High socio-economic and environmental diversity of the tourism region, making it difficult to promote, collaborate, etc. |
Whether or not participants thought climate change was impacting the region, most participants were employing at least one adaptation strategy in response to observed environmental change. Winter businesses were especially likely to implement extensive adaptation strategies focused primarily on product development and modification. Adaptation strategies included snowmaking and adding bike trails for summer use at ski resorts, diversifying product offerings and altering the timing of activities (Horne et al., unpublished results). Many adaptation strategies were motivated primarily by economic decisions and a need to ensure a more certain future for specific nature-based tourism businesses. Our results are similar to Bicknell and McManus’s finding that high climate change risk perceptions among ski resort managers in Australia were associated with reliance on snowmaking to overcome the unpredictability of the season (Bicknell and McManus, 2006).
Few participants are adopting business-level mitigation strategies despite generally high awareness of and concern for climate change (Horne et al., 2019). This could be explained by the influence of barriers, such as lack of resources, and facilitators, such as collaboration between tourism businesses and local Chambers of Commerce (see Table 7.1). Economic incentive was a strong motivator to engage in emission mitigation strategies. Participants who talked about economic payoffs, such as increased efficiency or attracting specific high-paying clientele, were more likely to incorporate mitigation strategies into their business models (Horne et al., 2019). This is consistent with other research that found participants were more likely to reduce their emissions if there were financial incentives and a high perceived response-cost (Poussin et al., 2014; Thuy et al., 2014). For those businesses that were actively reducing their carbon emissions, large-scale investments in renewable energy were used, especially solar. In addition to environmental benefits, these businesses also saw green marketing as a means to attract visitors and boost profits. Those who did not include mitigation strategies in their tourism business model perhaps did not perceive any economic benefits or faced other barriers.
Many tourism stakeholders were using individual-level pro-environmental behaviours, such as recycling to reduce their environmental impact, though these behaviours were not often linked to climate change concerns (Horne et al., unpublished results). For most interviewees, social and economic pressures were the primary motivators of small-scale mitigation efforts. While small-scale mitigation efforts were personal measures taken to reduce stakeholders’ environmental impact, these actions were not necessarily directly connected to climate change concerns and rarely scaled up to become business-level mitigation strategies (Horne et al., 2019).
Survey participants were 59.9% male while 39.4% were female (the remaining 0.7% responded ‘prefer not to answer’) with a total mean age of 55 years. The majority of participants held a bachelor’s degree at 30.1%. Further, respondents were 39.7% republicans, 24.5% democrats, 14.2% were independent; 21.6% of participants chose not to identify their political affiliation.
Residents who participated in the survey mentioned engaging in an array of recreational activities throughout the Western Maine tourism destination. The majority of residents engage in sightseeing or driving for pleasure, shopping, pursuing arts and cultural activities, backpacking and hiking. The most popular winter outdoor recreation activities among residents in the region are snowshoeing and snowmobiling.
A total of 32.6% of residents mentioned that they recreate in Western Maine a few times in the year with 18% of people saying that they recreate weekly and 15.9% saying that they recreate every few weeks (see Fig. 7.2). The majority of residents recreate outdoors in the winter a few times in the season (18.2%), every few weeks (17.7%), and weekly (15.5%). This shows that residents in the region are regularly engaging in outdoor recreation activities in the region throughout the year.
Fig. 7.2. Frequency of participation in outdoor recreation activities among Western Maine survey participants (n = 337).
In terms of global climate change, the majority of residents believe that air temperature is rising and permanently frozen snow in the Arctic is now thawing. The majority of respondents (88.7%) believe that humans contribute to climate change, with 42.9% strongly agreeing, 29% agreeing and 16.8% somewhat agreeing to the human role in global climate change.
Among the climate change effects that residents expressed personally having experienced included changes in temperature, precipitation, storms and flooding. In the future, residents expect to increasingly experience changes in temperature (including heat waves), changes in precipitation and storms.
In terms of resident perceptions of climate change-related risks to outdoor recreation, residents believed that higher temperatures were more of a threat to the area than colder temperatures. Residents were particularly concerned with an increased amount of ticks and mosquitoes in the area as a result of climate change.
Further, 69% of respondents were concerned that climate change will affect tourism in Western Maine, while 76% of respondents mentioned being concerned that climate change will affect outdoor recreation in Western Maine. Finally, residents agreed that we can all contribute to reducing the effects of climate change (90.6%), most people they care about believe in climate change (77.3%), the government should be in charge of addressing climate change impacts (67.8%) and most people they care about are personally doing something to reduce the risk of climate change (62.5%).
After considering the effects of climate change on the area, people were questioned on whether this would affect their decisions to recreate in the area. The most concerning topics that would influence a person’s decision to recreate outdoors in the region were the prevalence of ticks and mosquitoes, extreme weather events, more ice storms, heat waves and reduced snow. Residents shared that the following conditions would be potential threats to Western Maine and its nature-based tourism industry: increased presence of ticks (85%), increased presence of mosquitoes (79%), reduced snow (63%) and extreme weather events (63%).
Finally residents expressed that if Western Maine experienced poor weather conditions, they would likely visit other places in Maine (70%), recreate at another time of year (60%), pursue other outdoor recreation activities (56%), visit another place in the north-east (53%) or visit another place in the US (45%). Participants believed that climate change could have harmful and long-term impacts on Western Maine communities (79%), and affect its outdoor recreation opportunities (76%) and tourism industry in the region (77%).
Tourism stakeholders perceived the risk of climate change as high and as a result many businesses have already incorporated adaptation responses to observed impacts and challenges, especially among ski resorts. Most stakeholders were employing small-scale pro-environmental behaviours, though these actions were not specifically directed towards reducing their business’s carbon footprint. The exceptions were those businesses that had heavily invested in renewable energy systems. Promoting the financial benefits of adopting mitigation behaviours could encourage businesses to make larger investments in renewable energy and other carbon offsetting initiatives. Furthermore, reducing barriers to adaptation and mitigation behaviours, such as providing subsidies and climate change information specific to the Western Maine tourism destination, will help ensure a climate resilient destination.
Outdoor recreationists in this study tended to be generalists, participating in multiple activities. This could explain the high willingness to substitute recreation activities among respondents. Additionally, participants indicated a high likelihood to visit Western Maine at a different time of year if conditions were unacceptable for outdoor recreation. Understanding this outdoor recreation behaviour could help nature-based tourism stakeholders justify investing in alternative winter tourism activities to help businesses sustain themselves during low snow years and draw users during the extending shoulder seasons. For example, several tourism stakeholders and outdoor recreation providers were developing mountain bike opportunities to create a summer market in this traditionally winter tourism destination (Horne, 2017).
We would like to thank Ashley Cooper for her assistance with the visitor survey and map making. This project was supported by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, McIntire Stennis project number ME041504 through the Maine Agricultural and Forest Experiment Station, and by a George J. Mitchell Center for Sustainability Solutions grant.
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