INTRODUCTION
1. Juan Kulik, “Fundaciones de los edificios asismicos,” La Ingeneria (Buenos Aires) 855 (January 1946): 29, quoted in Mark Alan Healey, “The ‘Superstition of Adobe’ and the Certainty of Concrete: Shelter and Power After the 1944 San Juan Earthquake in Argentina,” in Aftershocks: Earthquakes and Popular Politics in Latin America, edited by Jürgen Buchenau and Lyman L. Johnson (Albuquerque: University of New Mexico Press, 2009).
2. Allan Lavell and Michael Oppenheimer (coordinating lead authors), “Climate Change: New Dimensions in Disaster Risk, Exposure, Vulnerability, and Resilience,” in IPCC, 2012: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by Chris Field et al. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012).
CHAPTER 1: TRUST IN THE WALLS
1. National Centers for Environmental Information, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), “Great Tohoku, Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, 11 March 2011,” https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/11mar2011.html.
2. Setsuko Kamiya, “Students Credit Survival to Disaster-Preparedness Drills,” Japan Times, June 4, 2011.
3. “Tsunami in Kamaishi City, Japan, March 11, 2011,” YouTube, posted by semimaru0000, March 12, 2011, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M535NGr9vbo; “Tsunami at Kamaishi Port, Iwate Prefecture,” YouTube, posted by Clancy688, March 12, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=629em0mPpUY.
4. Skeptikai, “Tsunami Survival Guide: Japanese Culture Is Not Conducive to Staying Alive,” posted by Ryo, March 11, 2012, http://skeptikai.com/2012/03/11/tsunami-survival-guide-japanese-culture-is-not-conducive-to-staying-alive/.
5. John M. Glionna, “Japanese School Takes Blame for Tsunami Deaths of 74 Students,” Los Angeles Times, January 24, 2012.
6. Public Relations Office, Government of Japan, “The ‘Miracle of Kamaishi’: How 3,000 Students Survived 3/11,” http://mnj.gov-online.go.jp/kamaishi.html.
7. Setsuko Kamiya, “Tsunami Hero Continuing Disaster Education Efforts,” Japan Times, May 30, 2013; Kamiya, “Students Credit Survival to Disaster-Preparedness Drills.”
8. James Owen, “Tsunami Family Saved by Schoolgirl’s Geography Lesson,” National Geographic News, January 18, 2005, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/01/0118_050118_tsunami_geography_lesson.html. Tilly Smith appeared at the United Nations in November 2005, met former president Bill Clinton (UN special envoy for tsunami relief), and read a poem on December 26, 2005, at the one-year anniversary ceremony in Khao Lak, Thailand, commemorating the tsunami. In the same month, she was named “Child of the Year” by the French magazine Mon Quotidien.
9. Public Relations Office, Government of Japan, “The ‘Miracle of Kamaishi.’”
10. Lafcadio Hearn and Ikegami Sako, “The Tale of Hamaguchi Gohei and the Tsunami,” available at SCBWI Japan Translation Group, https://ihatov.wordpress.com/2011/04/09/hamaguchi-gohei-a-living-god-by-lafcadio-hearn/ (posted by Sako Ikegami, April 9, 2011).
11. Sawaji Osamu, “Education and Disaster Reduction,” Japan Journal 8, no. 11 (February 2012): 6–10, http://www.japanjournal.jp/home/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/1202e_06-10_CoverStory.pdf.
12. Al Jazeera English, “Tsunami Survival Strategy Interview with Prof. Katada,” Don Productions, 2012, http://vimeo.com/31601481.
13. Jun Lee, Kiichiro Hatoyama, and Hitoshi Ieda, “Formulation of Tsunami Evacuation Strategy to Designate Routes for the Car Mode—Lessons from the Three Cities in Tohoku Area, Japan,” Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies 9 (2013), http://easts.info/on-line/proceedings/vol9/PDF/P41.pdf.
14. Hermann M. Fritz, Jose C. Borrero, Costas E. Synolakis, Emile A. Okal, Robert Weiss, Vasily V. Titov, Bruce E. Jaffe, Spyros Foteinis, Patrick J. Lynett, I.-Chi Chan, and Philip L.-F. Liu, “Insights on the 2009 South Pacific Tsunami in Samoa and Tonga from Field Surveys and Numerical Simulations,” Earth-Science Reviews 107 (2011): 66–75.
15. Benjamin D. Maygarden, Jill-Karen Yakubik, Ellen Weiss, Chester Peyronnin, and Kenneth R. Jones, National Register Evaluation of New Orleans Drainage System, Orleans Parish, Louisiana (New Orleans: Earth Search, Inc., November 1999), http://w5jgv.com/downloads/New%20Orleans%20Drainage%20History.pdf.
16. Craig E. Colten, An Unnatural Metropolis: Wresting New Orleans from Nature (Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press, 2006).
17. “Wind Driven Water Rising in New Peril to Metairie,” New Orleans States, September 22, 1947, http://archive.oah.org/special-issues/katrina/resources/hurricanes.html.
18. US Army Corps of Engineers, New Orleans District, “History of MRGO,” http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/Missions/Environmental/MRGOEcosystemRestoration/HistoryofMRGO.aspx.
19. D. A. Goudeau and W. C. Conner, “Storm Surge over the Mississippi River Delta Accompanying Hurricane Betsy, 1965,” Monthly Weather Review 96, no. 2 (February 1968): 118–124.
20. Anu Mittal, Director of Natural Resources and Environment, US Government Accountability Office (GAO), “Army Corps of Engineers: History of the Lake Pontchartrain and Vicinity Hurricane Protection Project: Testimony Before the Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development, Committee on Appropriations, House of Representatives” (Washington, DC: GAO, September 28, 2005).
21. Joel K. Bourne Jr., “Louisiana Wetlands,” National Geographic, October 1, 2004.
22. David L. Johnson, “Service Assessment: Hurricane Katrina, August 23–31, 2005” (Washington, DC: US Department of Commerce, NOAA, National Weather Service, June 2006).
23. Brian Williams, “Brian Williams: We Were Witnesses,” NBC News, August 28, 2006; “Hurricane Katrina Plows into Louisiana but Spares New Orleans Its Full Fury,” Minnesota Public Radio, August 29, 2005.
24. American Society of Civil Engineers, Hurricane Katrina External Review Panel, The New Orleans Hurricane Protection System: What Went Wrong and Why? (Reston, VA: ASCE, 2007).
25. Bob Marshall, John McQuaid, and Mark Schleifstein, “For Centuries, Canals Kept New Orleans Dry. Most People Never Dreamed They Would Become Mother Nature’s Instrument of Destruction,” New Orleans Times-Picayune, January 29, 2006; Nicole T. Carter, “CRS Report for Congress: Protecting New Orleans: From Hurricane Barriers to Floodwalls” (Washington, DC: Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service, December 13, 2005).
26. Jason Berry, “Harrowing Questions, and Ethics, During Katrina” (review of Five Days at Memorial by Sheri Fink), New York Times, September 3, 2013.
27. Keith C. Heidorn, “The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scales,” The Weather Doctor, June 30, 1999 (updated September 2013), http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/elements/safsimp.htm.
28. Joshua Norman, “Katrina’s Dead,” Biloxi Sun Herald, February 17, 2006.
29. Roger Yates, “When Words Save Lives: ‘Storm Tsunami’ v. ‘Storm Surge’,” Thomas Reuters Foundation, Plan International, December 4, 2013, http://news.trust.org//item/20131204083148-2anxo/.
30. Norimitsu Onishi, “Japan Revives a Sea Barrier That Failed to Hold,” New York Times, November 2, 2011.
31. Howard E. Graham, Meteorological Considerations Pertinent to Standard Project Hurricane, Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. National Hurricane Research Project Report 33 (Washington, DC: US Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau, 1959). After Hurricane Betsy in 1965, the Weather Bureau revised the wind field parameters but did not change the other characteristics of the SPH; see also John Schwartz, “An Autopsy of Katrina: Four Storms, Not Just One,” New York Times, May 29, 2006.
32. John Schwartz, “Ivor Van Heerden’s ‘Storm’ Draws Fire at LSU,” New York Times, May 30, 2006; Coleman Warner, “Sinking Homes Stymie Flood Survey Experts: Post-Katrina, Reliability of Elevation Maps Suspect,” New Orleans Times-Picayune, December 5, 2005.
33. Lewis E. Link, et al., Performance Evaluation of the New Orleans and Southeast Louisiana Hurricane Protection System: Draft Final Report of the Interagency Performance Evaluation Task Force, vol. 1, Executive Summary and Overview (Washington, DC: US Army Corps of Engineers, 2007).
34. Dwight Ink, “An Analysis of the House Select Committee and White House Reports on Hurricane Katrina,” Public Administration Review 66, no. 6 (2006): 800–807; R. B. Seed, et al., Investigation of the Performance of the New Orleans Flood Protection Systems in Hurricane Katrina on August 29, 2005, vol. 1, Main Text and Executive Summary (Berkeley, CA: Independent Levee Investigation Team, July 31, 2006), http://www.ce.berkeley.edu/projects/neworleans/report/intro&summary.pdf.
35. John Schwartz, “Vast Defenses Now Shielding New Orleans,” New York Times, June 14, 2012; Alissa L. Miller, S. N. Jonkman, and M. van Ledden, “Risk to Life Due to Flooding in Post-Katrina New Orleans,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 15, no. 1 (2015): 59–73.
36. Stéphane Hallegatte, “A Cost-Benefit Analysis of the New Orleans Flood Protection System,” American Enterprise Institute–Brookings Joint Center: Regulatory Analysis (2006): 06–02.
37. Norimitsu Onishi, “Japan Revives a Sea Barrier That Failed to Hold,” New York Times, November 2, 2011; David Cyranoski, “Rebuilding Japan: After the Deluge,” Nature, March 7, 2012, http://www.nature.com/news/rebuilding-japan-after-the-deluge-1.10172.
38. “The Great Wall of Japan,” The Economist, June 14, 2014.
CHAPTER 2: CATASTROPHE YEAR ZERO
1. The three largest, in order of size, were London, Paris, and Naples. Alvaro S. Pereira, “The Opportunity of a Disaster: The Economic Impact of the 1755 Lisbon Earthquake,” Journal of Economic History 69, no. 2 (2009): 466–499.
2. Psalms 18:7–15; all Bible quotations are taken from The English Standard Version Bible (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009).
3. See the illustration captioned “Krak des Chevaliers,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krak_des_Chevaliers#/media/File:Near_East_1135.svg (last modified March 7, 2016).
4. Kate Raphael, “The Impact of the 1157 and 1170 Syrian Earthquakes on Crusader-Muslim Politics and Military Affairs,” Geological Society of America Special Papers 471 (2010): 59–66.
5. Ibid.
6. Emanuela Guidoboni, Filippo Bernardini, Alberto Comastri, and Enzo Boschi, “The Large Earthquake on 29 June 1170 (Syria, Lebanon, and Central Southern Turkey),” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth (1978–2012) 109.B7 (2004): B07304, doi:10.1029/2003JB002523 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2003JB002523/pdf; Nicholas N. Ambraseys, “The 12th Century Seismic Paroxysm in the Middle East: A Historical Perspective,” Annals of Geophysics 47, nos. 2–3 (2004).
7. William Archbishop of Tyre, A History of Deeds Done Beyond the Sea, vol. 2 (New York: Columbia University Press, 1943), 371.
8. Herbert Thurston, “Bells,” The Catholic Encyclopedia, vol. 2 (New York: Robert Appleton Company, 1907), http://www.newadvent.org/cathen/02418b.htm.
9. Angelo Rocca (1612), De Campanis Commentarium (A Commentary on Bells), Rome, https://blogs.library.duke.edu/magazine/2013/01/07/for-whom-the-bell-tolls/; The Catholic Encyclopedia, 2:136–139; for the rite, see 31–42. See also Andrew Dickson White, “From the Prince of the Power of the Air to Meteorology. Part II. Diabolic Agency in Storms,” in A History of the Warfare of Science with Theology in Christendom (2009), ch. 11, https://archive.org/details/historyofwarfare189701whit.
10. “Tonnerre” (“Thunder”), in Encyclopédie Art (1756), quoted in I. Bernard Cohen, “Franklin, Boerhaave, Newton, Boyle, and the Absorption of Heat in Relation to Color,” Isis 46, no. 2 (1955): 99–104, note 70.
11. John L. Heilbron, Electricity in the 17th and 18th Centuries: A Study of Early Modern Physics (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1979), 341–342.
12. Ibid.
13. Ibid.
14. I. Bernard Cohen, Benjamin Franklin’s Science (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1990), 251, note 63.
15. New York Times, July 22, 1901.
16. G. Neilson, R. M. W. Musson, and P. W. Burton, “The ‘London’ Earthquake of 1580, April 6,” Engineering Geology 20, no. 1 (1984): 113–141.
17. See, for example, Thomas Churchyards, A Warning for the wise, a feare to the fond, a bridle to the lewde, and a glasse to the good, or Abraham Fleming, A bright burning beacon, forewarning all wise virgins to trim their lampes against the comming of the Bridegroome. . . . And a praier for the appeasing of Gods wrath and indignation.
18. Within a week, the publisher and archivist Thomas Twyne had produced A general historical catalogue of previous earthquakes, while Arthur Golding wrote A discourse upon the earthquake that hapned throughe this realme of Englande, and other places of Christendom. Preempting the tabloid press was Anthony Munday’s A view of sundry examples Reporting many strunge murthers . . . What straunge and monstrous children have of late beene borne: Also a short discourse of the late earthquake the sixt of Aprill.
19. William Shakespeare, Henry IV: Part 1, act 3, scene 1.
20. Kevin J. Horsburgh and Matt Horritt, “The Bristol Channel Floods of 1607: Reconstruction and Analysis,” Weather 61, no. 10 (2006): 272–277; see also “1607 Bristol Channel Floods: 400-Year Retrospective: RMS Special Report” (London: Risk Management Solutions, 2007), http://forms2.rms.com/rs/729-DJX-565/images/fl_1607_bristol_channel_floods.pdf. The people who lived and worked on the great estuary were well aware of the causes of the flood: an exceptional tide accompanied by a wind-driven storm surge: “The ryver of Severn rose upon a sodeyn Tuesday mornyng the 20 of January beyng the full pryme day and hyghest tyde after the change of the moone,” wrote the vicar of Almondsbury, John Paul. “The Sea being very tempestuously moved by the windes, overflowed his ordinary Bankes,” noted Newes from Monmouthshire.
21. Two modest earthquakes had struck London in February and March 1750, presenting Wesley with the opportunity to recall the “parable” of the 1692 earthquake. “Sermon 129: The Cause and Cure of Earthquakes: A Sermon by John Wesley First Published in the Year 1750,” Wesley Center Online, http://wesley.nnu.edu/john-wesley/the-sermons-of-john-wesley-1872-edition/sermon-129-the-cause-and-cure-of-earthquakes/.
22. Increase Mather, “A Discourse Concerning Earthquake” (Boston, 1706), 8, in Michael G. Hall, The Last American Puritan: The Life of Increase Mather, 1639–1723 (Middletown, CT: Wesleyan University Press, 1988), 326.
23. M. A. Baptista, J. M. Miranda, F. Chierici, and N. Zitellini, “New Study of the 1755 Earthquake Source Based on Multi-Channel Seismic Survey Data and Tsunami Modelling,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 3 (2003): 333–340; Robert Muir-Wood and Arnaud Mignan, “A Phenomenological Reconstruction of the Mw9 November 1st 1755 Earthquake Source” (2007), in The 1755 Lisbon Earthquake: Revisited (Springer Netherlands, 2009), 121–146.
24. Anonymous letter from “Faro,” Gentleman’s Magazine, December 25, 1755, 563.
25. Kenneth R. Maxwell, Pombal, Paradox of the Enlightenment (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995).
26. “The first day of this month will be remembered throughout the centuries because of the earthquake and fires that have destroyed a large part of this city; fortunately, the safes of the royal exchequer, as well as those of many private citizens, have been recovered from the ruins”; Gazeta de Lisboa, no. 45 (1755), in André Belo, “Between History and Periodicity: Printed and Hand-Written News in 18th-Century Portugal,” E-journal of Portuguese History 2, no. 2 (2005).
27. Gentleman’s Magazine, November 29, 1755.
28. James Boswell, Boswell’s Life of Johnson, edited by George Birkbeck Hill, vol. 1, Life 1709–1765 (New York: Bigelow Brown & Co.), 358; James Boswell’s Life of Johnson, vol. 9, Hester Lynch Piozzi, Anecdotes of the Late Samuel Johnson, LL.D. (London: John Murray, 1835), 48–49.
29. The official account was written by the Swiss Miguel Tibério Pedegache Brandão Ivo in his capacity as a correspondent of the journal Étranger; reprinted in T. D. Kendrick, The Lisbon Earthquake (London: Methuen and Co., 1955).
30. Daniel Defoe, The Storm: Or, a Collection of the Most Remarkable Casualties and Disasters Which Happen’d in the Late Dreadful Tempest (London: George Sawbridge and J. Nutt, 1704); Gaston R. Demarée and Robert Muir-Wood, “De ‘Grote Storm van december 1703’ in de Lage Landen—een stormachtige periode in de Spaanse Successieoorlog,” Jaarboek voor Ecologische Geschiedenis (2009): 33–54.
31. Daniel Defoe, The Lay-Man’s Sermon upon the late Storm (Held Forth at an Honest Coffee-House Conventicle) (London, 1704); see also Daniel Defoe, The Storm (London: Penguin Books, 2005), 86, http://www.gutenberg.org/files/36694/36694-h/36694-h.htm.
32. The questions for the viceroys were simple, direct, and to the point: “At what time? What duration? What movements were observed in floors, walls, buildings, springs and rivers? What damages and collapses had been caused? The numbers of injuries and deaths to people and animals? What other notable observations about what preceded or caused the earthquake?”
33. Mark Molesky, “The Great Fire of Lisbon,” in Flammable Cities: Urban Conflagration and the Making of the Modern World, edited by Greg Bankoff, Uwe Lübken, and Jordan Sand (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 2012), 147–169; A. Carneiro and T. S. Mota, “Um Terramoto para uma vida: Francisco Luiz Pereira de Sousa” (A Life of Earthquakes: Francisco Luiz Pereira), in O Terramoto de 1755 Impactos Históricos (The Earthquake of 1755: Historical Impacts) (Lisbon: Livros Horizonte, 2007), 127–138.
34. In 1780 a maximum-intensity hurricane hit Barbados. Admiral George Rodney visited the island and reported: “I am convinc’d that the Violence of the Wind must have prevented the Inhabitants from feeling the Earthquake which certainly attended the Storm. Nothing but an Earthquake could have occasion’d the foundations of the Strongest buildings to be rent, and so total has been the devastation that not one house or one Church, as I am well inform’d but what has been destroy’d.” In a typhoon in the Bay of Bengal in October 1737 in which the water “reached 40 feet” above sea level, “20,000 Ships, Barks, Sloops, Boats and Canoes were cast away,” and “300,000 perished.” The colonial masters in Calcutta recognized this to be an intense storm surge, but some newspapers in London, disbelieving that a mere hurricane could be so destructive, wrote: “There was at the same time a violent earthquake, which threw down a great many houses along the river side.”
35. Such as the August 25, 1618, collapse of a mountain, which had been quarried for layers of talc, onto the village of Plurs, Switzerland, killing 1,000 to 2,500 inhabitants, or the September 2, 1806, rockfall onto the village of Goldau, which killed 457 people in central Switzerland.
36. Waldo Ross, Nuestro imaginario cultural: Simbolica literaria hispanoamericana, Autores, Textos, y Temas 11 (Barcelona: Anthropos, 1992), 117.
37. Kendrick, The Lisbon Earthquake.
38. Hesiod, Theogony: The Homeric Hymns and Homerica with an English Translation, translated by Hugh G. Evelyn-White (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1914), lines 664–721; see also Nonnus, Dionysiaca, book 13, 435ff.
39. Maxwell, Pombal, Paradox of the Enlightenment.
40. Robert H. Brown, “The ‘Demonic’ Earthquake: Goethe’s Myth of the Lisbon Earthquake and Fear of Modern Change,” German Studies Review (1992): 475–491.
41. Russell R. Dynes, “The Dialogue Between Voltaire and Rousseau on the Lisbon Earthquake: The Emergence of a Social Science View,” International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters 18, no. 1 (2000): 97–115; Russell R. Dynes, “The Lisbon Earthquake in 1755: Contested Meanings in the First Modern Disaster,” in The Lisbon Earthquake of 1755: Representations and Reactions, edited by Theodore E. D. Braun and John B. Radner (Oxford: Voltaire Foundation, 2005), 34–49.
42. Lowell Juilliard Carr wrote in 1932: “Not every windstorm, earth-tremor, or rush of water is a catastrophe. A catastrophe is known by its works; that is to say, by the occurrence of disaster. So long as the ship rides out the storm, so long as the city resists the earth-shocks, so long as the levees hold, there is no disaster. It is the collapse of the cultural protections that constitutes the disaster proper.” Lowell Juilliard Carr, “Disaster and the Sequence-Pattern Concept of Social Change,” American Journal of Sociology (1932): 207–218.
43. “Von den Ursachen der Erderschütterungen bei Gelegenheit des Unglücks, welches die westliche Länder von Europa gegen das Ende des vorigen Jahres betroffen hat” (On the Causes of Earthquakes, on the Occasion of the Calamity That Befell the Western Countries of Europe Towards the End of Last Year); “Geschichte und Naturbeschreibung der merkwürdigsten Vorfälle des Erdbebens, welches an dem Ende des 1755sten Jahres einen grossen Teil der Erde erschüttert hat” (History and Natural Description of the Most Noteworthy Occurrences of the Earthquake That Struck a Large Part of the Earth at the End of the Year 1755); “Fortgesetzte Betrachtung der seit einiger Zeit wahrgenommenen Erderschütterungen” (Continued Observations of the Terrestrial Convulsions That Have Been Perceived for Some Time). See translations by Olaf Reinhardt in Eric Watkins, ed., Kant: Natural Science (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012).
44. Dynes, “The Lisbon Earthquake in 1755.”
45. “Les Tremblements de terre attribués à l’électricité,” Journal Enclyclopédique, March 1, 1756.
46. On the origin of the word “risk,” see Rolf Skjong, “Etymology of Risk: Classical Greek Origin—Nautical Expression—Metaphor for “Difficulty to Avoid in the Sea,” February 25, 2005, http://research.dnv.com/skj/Papers/ETYMOLOGY-OF-RISK.pdf.
47. Howard Goodall, The Story of Music: From Babylon to the Beatles: How Music Has Shaped Civilization (London: Chatto and Windus, 2014), 120.
48. Ryan Nichols, “Re-evaluating the Effects of the 1755 Lisbon Earthquake on Eighteenth-Century Minds: How Cognitive Science of Religion Improves Intellectual History with Hypothesis Testing Methods,” Journal of the American Academy of Religion 82 (2014): 970–1029.
49. Stuart McCook, “Nature, God, and Nation in Revolutionary Venezuela: The Holy Thursday Earthquake of 1812,” in Aftershocks: Earthquakes and Popular Politics in Latin America, edited by Jürgen Buchenau and Lyman L. Johnson (Albuquerque: University of New Mexico Press, 2009), 43–69.
50. Ibid.
51. Ibid.
52. “National Pantheon of Venezuela,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Pantheon_of_Venezuela (last modified February 5, 2016).
53. McCook, “God and Nation in Revolutionary Venezuela.”
54. Melvin Nava, “El Terremoto Cuatricentenario de Caracas,” Venelogía, August 2, 2005, http://www.venelogia.com/archivos/627/.
55. J. D. Woodruff, et al., “Depositional Evidence for the Kamikaze Typhoons and Links to Changes in Typhoon Climatology,” Geology 43, no. 1 (2015): 91–94.
56. Ernest Mason Satow, Japan 1853–1864: Or, Genji Yume Monogatari (Tokyo: Naigai Suppan Kyokai, 1905).
57. Masaru Fujimoto, “Shipwrecked Russians Lived to Tell an Epic Tale,” Japan Times, June 1, 2003.
58. C. Veit, “Matthew Perry and the Opening of Japan,” Navy and Marine Living History Association, http://www.navyandmarine.org/ondeck/1800perryjapan.htm; Rhoda Blumberg, Commodore Perry in the Land of the Shogun (New York: HarperCollins, 1985), 18.
59. St. Thomas Tidende, November 13, 1867.
60. US Department of State Archive, “Purchase of the United States Virgin Islands, 1917,” http://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/wwi/107293.htm; Isaac Dookhan, A History of the Virgin Islands of the United States (Kingston, Jamaica: Canoe Press, 1974); Erik Overgaard Pedersen, The Attempted Sale of the Danish West Indies to the United States of America, 1865–1870 (Frankfurt: Haag & Herzhen, 1997); Charles C. Tansill, The Purchase of the Danish West Indies (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1932).
61. Roy Watlington and Shirley Lincoln, summarized by Robin Swank, “Earthquakes and Tsunamis: Prospects for the Virgin Islands,” St. John Historical Society, March 7, 2008, http://stjohnhistoricalsociety.org/vol-ix-no-7-march-2008-earthquakes-tsunamis-prospects-for-the-virgin-islands-presented-by-roy-watlington-and-shirley-lincoln-summarized-by-robin-swank/.
62. Bret Harte, “St. Thomas: A Geographical Survey,” in The Heathen Chinee: Poems and Parodies (London: Richard Edward King, 1888).
63. Narcisse Zahibo, et al., “The 1867 Virgin Island Tsunami,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 3, no. 5 (1930): 367–376; Roy A. Watlington, “The Terrible Earthquake and Tsunami of Nov. 18, 1867,” St. Croix Source, November 19, 2013; Aimery Caron, “The Urgency for the Acquisition of the Danish West Indies,” presented to the Caribbean Genealogy Library on the occasion of the ninety-seventh anniversary of Transfer Day, March 31, 2014, http://www.rootsweb.ancestry.com/~vicgl/Caron/TransferDWI.pdf.
64. William James, “On Some Mental Effects of the Earthquake,” in Memories and Studies (1911), 207–226, http://grammar.about.com/od/classicessays/a/WJamesEarthquake_2.htm.
CHAPTER 3: CATASTROPHYSICS
1. A British planter, Christopher Jeaffreson, had been cultivating his land on St. Kitts for five years when, in 1681, a hurricane arrived and tore “downe strong stone walled houses before it . . . as well as trees and timber buildings. It left me not a house or sugar-worke standing on my plantation. It broke and twisted my sugar-canes, rooted up my Cassava, and washed the graine and new-planted puttatoes.” See John C. Jeaffreson, A Young Squire of the 17th Century, from the Papers of Christopher Jeaffreson of Dullingham House, Cambridgeshire, vol. 1 (London, 1878), 274–280.
2. Captain Langford’s “Observations of His Own Experience upon Huricanes, and Their Prognosticks,” communicated by Mr. Bonavert, The Royal Society: Philosophical Transactions 20, nos. 236–247 (January 1, 1698): 407–416, http://rstl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/20/236-247/407.full.pdf+html.
3. Ibid.
4. William C. Redfield, “Remarks on the Prevailing Storms of the Atlantic Coast, of the North American States,” American Journal of Science and Arts 20 (1831): 17–51.
5. Emery R. Boose, Kristen E. Chamberlin, and David R. Foster, “Landscape and Regional Impacts of Hurricanes in New England,” Ecological Monographs 71, no. 1 (2001): 27–48.
6. Redfield, “Remarks on the Prevailing Storms of the Atlantic Coast.”
7. Lee Sandlin, Storm Kings: America’s First Tornado Chasers (New York: Vintage, 2014), 266.
8. Mark Monmonier, Air Apparent: How Meteorologists Learned to Map, Predict, and Dramatize Weather (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1999).
9. Sandlin, Storm Kings.
10. “Reid, William (1791–1858),” in Dictionary of National Biography, 1885–1900, vol. 47, edited by Robert Hamilton Vetch (London: Smith, Elder and Co., 1885–1990).
11. S. Naylor, “Log Books and the Law of Storms: Maritime Meteorology and the British Admiralty in the Nineteenth Century,” Isis 106, no. 4 (2015): 771–797.
12. William Reid, An Attempt to Develop a Law of Storms by Means of Facts (London: J. Weale, 1838).
13. Stephen Taylor, Storm and Conquest: The Battle for the Indian Ocean, 1808–1810 (London: Faber & Faber, 2012).
14. Wayne Neely, The Great Hurricane of 1780: The Story of the Greatest and Deadliest Hurricane of the Caribbean and the Americas (iUniverse, 2012).
15. Samuel Morison, The European Discovery of America: The Southern Voyages, 1492–1616 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1974).
16. John Knox Laughton, “Piddington, Henry (1797–1858),” in Dictionary of National Biography, vol. 45 (London: Smith, Elder and Co., 1885–1990).
17. Henry Piddington, The Sailor’s Horn-book for the Law of Storms: Being a Practical Exposition of the Theory of the Law of Storms, and Its Uses to Mariners of All Classes in All Parts of the World, Shewn by Transparent Storm Cards and Useful Lessons (London: Williams and Norgate, 1869).
18. Ibid.
19. Joseph Conrad, Typhoon, serialized in Pall Mall magazine, January–March 1902.
20. Erik H. Palmén, “On the Formation and Structure of Tropical Cyclones” (1948), Geophysics 3: 26–38, http://www.geophysica.fi/pdf/geophysica_1948_3_1_026_palmen.pdf.
21. John Michell, “Conjectures Concerning the Cause and Observations upon the Phaenomena of Earthquakes,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 51 (1760): 566–634.
22. “Libro o Trattato di Pirro Ligorio (1571),” in Di Diversi Terremoti, vol. 28, edited by Emanuela Guidoboni (Rome: de Luca Editori d’Arte, 2005), 27, http://www.culturaimmagineroma.it/dwd/guidob.terremoti.pdf; Emanuela Guidoboni, “Riti di calamità: Terremoti a Ferrara nel 1570–74,” Quaderni Storici 55 (1984): 107–135. The idea of engulfment has been kept alive by the phenomenon of sinkholes—particularly in Florida; see Michael Wines, “One Sinkhole Killed, and Many Others Opened, but Experts Counsel Not to Panic,” New York Times, March 15, 2013.
23. Hotspur, in William Shakespeare, Henry IV, Part 1, act 3, scene 1.
24. “Von den Ursachen der Erderschütterungen bei Gelegenheit des Unglücks, welches die westliche Länder von Europa gegen das Ende des vorigen Jahres betroffen hat” (On the Causes of Earthquakes, on the Occasion of the Calamity That Befell the Western Countries of Europe Towards the End of Last Year); Immanuel Kant, Werke (Works), vol. 1, Vorkritisch Schriften I (Precritical Writings I) 1747–1756 (Berlin: Verlag von Georg Reimer, 1902).
25. Gregory Quenet, Les Tremblements de terre aux XV11ème et VV111ème Siècles: La Naissance d’un risque (Seyssel, France: Éditions Champ Vallon, 2005), 444.
26. Francesco Milizia, Principii di Architettura Civile (Principles of Civil Architecture), vols. 1–3 (Bassano: A spese Remondini di Venezia, 1785).
27. Emmanuel Heath, A Full Account of the Late Dreadful Earthquake at Port Royal in Jamaica: Written in Two Letters from the Minister of that Place, from aboard the Granada in Port Royal harbour, June 22, 1692 (London: printed for Jacob Tonson, sold by R. Baldwin, 1692); Julie Yates Matlock, “The Process of Colonial Adaptation: English Responses to the 1692 Earthquake at Port Royal, Jamaica” (master’s thesis, Eastern Kentucky University, 2012).
28. The sand grains, blown by the wind into the still water of the lagoon, touched at their corners. The vibrations caused the grains to jiggle and pack together more tightly. As the space between the grains reduced, the water increased in pressure, pushing the grains apart and causing the sand to behave like a liquid.
29. Daniel Defoe, A General History of the Pyrates (Mineola, NY: Dover Publications, 1999); Christopher Minster, “The History of Port Royal,” About Education, December 16, 2014, http://latinamericanhistory.about.com/od/historyofthecaribbean/p/The-History-Of-Port-Royal.htm
30. “Sermon 129: The Cause and Cure of Earthquakes: A Sermon by John Wesley First Published in the Year 1750,” Wesley Center Online, http://wesley.nnu.edu/john-wesley/the-sermons-of-john-wesley-1872-edition/sermon-129-the-cause-and-cure-of-earthquakes/.
31. Boston Evening-Post, July 9, 1770.
32. Robert Muir-Wood, “Robert Mallet and John Milne: Earthquakes Incorporated in Victorian Britain,” Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics 17, no. 1 (1988): 107–142.
33. Robert Mallet, Fourth Report upon the Facts and Theory of Earthquake Phenomena (London: British Association for the Advancement of Science, 1858), 1–136.
34. “Robert Mallet,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Mallet (last modified February 15, 2016).
35. Robert Mallet, Great Neapolitan Earthquake of 1857: The First Principles of Observational Seismology, vol. 2 (London: Chapman and Hall, 1862).
36. W. H. Hobbs, Earthquakes (London: Sydney Appleton, 1908). Professor Rico, in a study of a Calabrian earthquake of 1894, found that out of thirty-three villages, in sixteen cracks pointed toward the center of the damage and in another seventeen they pointed away; see Annibale Ricco, “Terremoti el 16 Novembre 1894 in Calabria e Sicilia: Relazio Sismologica” (Earthquakes of November 16, 1894, in Calabria and Sicily: Seismological Report), Annali del R. Ufficio Centrale Meteorologico e Geodinamico, Serie Seconda 19, part 1 (1897).
37. Graeme J. N. Gooday and Morris F. Low, “Technology Transfer and Cultural Exchange: Western Scientists Encounter Late Tokugawa and Meiji Japan,” Osiris 13 (1998): 99–128.
38. Muir-Wood, “Robert Mallet and John Milne,” 121.
39. At the end of 1880, Ewing recorded several earthquakes using a horizontal pendulum inscribed on a smoked-glass disk. Muir-Wood, “Robert Mallet and John Milne,” 124–125.
40. Bunjiro Koto, “On the Cause of the Great Earthquake in Central Japan, 1891,” Journal of the College of Science, Imperial University 5, part 3 (1892): 295–353.
41. Ibid. The 1881 and 1883 earthquakes on the island of Ischia in Italy had been so localized and catastrophic that they were widely attributed to Aristotle’s preferred cavern collapse explanation. The association of an earthquake with fault movement was offered, however, in G. K. Gilbert, “A Theory of the Earthquakes of the Great Basin, with a Practical Application,” American Journal of Science, series 3, 27, no. 157 (1884): 49–54.
42. Gregory K. Clancey, Earthquake Nation: The Cultural Politics of Japanese Seismicity, 1868–1930 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2006).
43. Ōmori Fusakichi, “Notes on the Great Mino-Owari Earthquake of Oct. 28, 1891,” Publications of the Imperial Earthquake Investigation Committee I Foreign Languages, no. 4 (1900): 13–24.
44. Finding the European intensity scale with its observations of church towers and chandeliers useless for Japan, Ōmori developed a Japanese intensity scale in seven bands; see Ōmori Fusakichi, “Preliminary Note on the Formosan Earthquake of Mar. 17, 1906,” Bulletin of the Imperial Earthquake Investigation Committee I, no. 2 (1907): 53–69.
45. By 1906, the population of San Francisco was 372,000, and that of the Bay Area was 789,000.
46. Carl-Henry Geschwind, California Earthquakes: Science, Risk, and the Politics of Hazard Mitigation (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001), 18; Alan E. Leviton and Michele L. Aldrich, “John Boardman Trask, Physician-Geologist in California, 1850–1879,” in Frontiers of Geological Exploration of Western North America, edited by Alan E. Leviton, Peter U. Rodda, Ellis Yochelson, and Michele L. Aldrich (Washington, DC: American Association for the Advancement of Science, Pacific Division, 1982), 37–70.
47. “Some Facts About Earthquakes” (editorial), Daily Alta California, October 24, 1868.
48. University of California–Berkeley, Seismological Laboratory (BSL), “History of the BSL,” http://seismo.berkeley.edu/history/; Bruce A. Bolt, “One Hundred Years of Contributions of the University of California Seismographic Stations,” in Observational Seismology: A Centennial Symposium for the Berkeley Seismographic Stations, edited by Joe J. Litehiser (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1987), 24–50.
49. The stations were Berkeley Astronomical Observatory, Oakland Chabot Observatory, Alameda Mills College Observatory, San Jose University of the Pacific, Mount Hamilton Lick Observatory, and Carson Observatory (in Carson City, Nevada).
50. W. W. Campbell, “Edward Singleton Holden (1846–1914),” in Biographical Memoirs (Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences, 1916), 347–372; UC Berkeley, “History of the BSL”; Donald E. Osterbrock, “The Rise and Fall of Edward S. Holden: Part One,” Journal for the History of Astronomy 15, no. 2 (1984): 81; Donald E. Osterbrock, “The Rise and Fall of Edward S. Holden: Part Two,” Journal for the History of Astronomy 15, no. 3 (1984): 151.
51. John Milne, “A Catalogue of 8,331 Earthquakes Recorded in Japan 1885–1892,” Seismological Journal of Japan 4 (1895): 21.
52. Oscar Lewis, George Davidson: Pioneer West Coast Scientist (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1954).
53. Correctly, as it turned out. See “Ōmori Declares There Is No Danger of Severe Shock in Near Future,” San Francisco Chronicle, June 6, 1906, 8.
54. “Effects of the 1906 Earthquake in San Jose,” Santa Clara County Genealogy, http://www.sfgenealogy.com/santaclara/history/sc1906.htm; “Century-old Kingston Quake Monument Stands Tall,” Jamaica Gleaner, May 28, 2015.
55. Ryan Kim, “Daly City Officials Unmoved by Quake Notoriety, Plan to Note Change of 1906 Epicenter Lacking Support,” San Francisco Chronicle, April 11, 2004.
56. The authors of the report were Lawson and Branner; three astronomers who had been innocently housing seismological recorders at their observatories; the octogenarian George C. Davidson, who had come to San Francisco in 1850, worked on the original geodetic survey of the state and served on the thwarted commission to research the 1868 earthquake; the distinguished US Geological Survey field geologist Grove Karl Gilbert; and Harry Fielding Reid, an earth physicist colleague of Lawson’s at Johns Hopkins University.
57. Philip L. Fradkin, Magnitude 8: Earthquakes and Life Along the San Andreas Fault (New York: Henry Holt, 1998).
58. In 1901, when he was director of the Geological Survey, the story goes that Walcott was having breakfast with Carnegie, and Carnegie asked Walcott to tell him about James Smith, who gave the money that led to the establishment of the Smithsonian Institution. Carnegie was so impressed by Walcott’s account that he eventually gave $10 million to establish the Carnegie Institution of Washington. See Ellis L. Yochelson, Charles Doolittle Walcott, 1850–1927: A Biographical Memoir (Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences, 1967), http://www.nasonline.org/publications/biographical-memoirs/memoir-pdfs/walcott-charles.pdf.
59. Andrew Cowper Lawson and Harry Fielding Reid, The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906: Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission in Two Volumes and Atlas, no. 87 (Washington, DC: Carnegie Institution of Washington, 1908–1910).
60. Robert Reitherman, “The Effects of the 1906 Earthquake in California on Research and Education,” Earthquake Spectra 22, no. S2 (April 2006): 207–236; Robert Reitherman, “Effects of Significant Earthquakes on the Development of Earthquake Engineering,” paper 37, presented at the 2006 meeting of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, http://www.nzsee.org.nz/db/2006/Paper37.pdf; Fradkin, Magnitude 8; Charles Derleth Jr., “The Destructive Extent of the California Earthquake of 1906: Its Effect upon Structures and Structural Materials Within the Earthquake Belt,” in The California Earthquake of 1906, edited by David Starr Jordan (San Francisco: A. M. Robertson, 1907), 79–212; Charles Derleth Jr., “Structural Lessons on the Earthquake Disturbance,” Architects and Engineers of California 5, no. 1 (1906);
61. Charles Derleth Jr., “Reinforced Concrete Construction: Its Proper Application in Earthquake Countries,” Journal of the Association of Engineering Societies 38 (1907): 72–82.
62. Reitherman, “The Effects of the 1906 Earthquake.”
63. Charles Walcott, letter to Charles R. Bishop, May 23, 1907, Smithsonian Institution Library.
64. Ibid.
65. In March 1910, Senator Hernando Money of Mississippi wrote to Boies Penrose: “There was great opposition in Congress to the establishment of a new Bureau.”
66. US Senate, Congressional Record, 61st Cong., 2nd sess., parts 7–9, June 10, 1910, 7793–7794, https://archive.org/stream/congressionalrec45funit#page/n177/mode/1up.
67. A rival proposal for the Weather Bureau to undertake seismic monitoring was voted in at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) on the first anniversary of the San Francisco earthquake in 1907.
68. “BARS EARTHQUAKE STUDY: Controller of Treasury Says It Is Not Weather Bureau Work,” New York Times, August 26, 1911, http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=9B0DE0DB1531E233A25755C2A96E9C946096D6CF.
69. Augustan Udías and William Stauder, “The Jesuit Contribution to Seismology,” in International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, vol. 81A (International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior, Committee on Education, 2002), 19–27.
70. Ibid.
71. Henry M. Robinson, letter to Robert Millikan (responding to a recent publication by Bailey Willis), April 8, 1927, in Geschwind, California Earthquakes, 89.
72. An 80-kilogram Weichert vertical seismograph arrived at Berkeley from Germany in 1910, and the next year a 160-kilogram horizontal seismograph and an 80-kilogram Weichert vertical component seismograph were installed at the Lick Observatory.
73. Clifford W. Marsh, “San Francisco Is Burning,” The Standard, July 7, 1906, reprinted in Facts Concerning the Great Fire of San Francisco (Bridgeport, CT: Marigold-Foster Printing Co., 1907), 234; Robert A. James, “Six Bits or Bust: Insurance Litigation over the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and Fire,” Western Legal History 24, no. 2 (2011): 127–165, https://www.pillsburylaw.com/siteFiles/Publications/SixBitsorBustInsuranceLitigation.pdf.
74. Vannevar Bush, “Biographical Memoir of John Ripley Freeman, 1855–1932,” presented at the Autumn 1936 meeting of the National Academy of Sciences, http://www.nasonline.org/publications/biographical-memoirs/memoir-pdfs/freeman-john.pdf.
75. “Harry Oscar Wood,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_O._Wood (last modified November 27, 2015).
76. Geschwind, California Earthquakes.
77. Ibid. The British and French had been using seismic recorders to locate the enemy’s big guns on the Western Front.
78. Ibid.
79. John A. Anderson had designed equipment for sensitive submarine detection; see Susan Elizabeth Hough, Richter’s Scale: Measure of an Earthquake, Measure of a Man (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007).
80. Ibid.
81. Charles F. Richter, “An Instrumental Earthquake Magnitude Scale,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 25, no. 1 (1935): 1–32.
82. Charles F. Richter, Elementary Seismology (San Francisco: W. H. Freeman and Co., 1958).
83. Digby Diehl, Super-Talk (Garden City, NY: Doubleday, 1974).
84. Robert Muir-Wood, The Dark Side of the Earth (London: Allen & Unwin,1985).
85. Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory, “50 Years of Global Seismology,” US Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2011–3065 (June 2011).
86. Bryan Isacks, Jack Oliver, and Lynn R. Sykes, “Seismology and the New Global Tectonics,” Journal of Geophysical Research 73, no. 18 (1968): 5855–5899.
87. On plates, see Arch C. Johnston and Eugene S. Schweig, “The Enigma of the New Madrid Earthquakes of 1811–1812,” Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 24, no. 1 (1996): 339–384; on plate tectonics, see W. Jason Morgan, “Rises, Trenches, Great Faults, and Crustal Blocks,” Journal of Geophysical Research 73, no. 6 (1968): 1959–1982, doi:10.1029/JB073i006p01959.
88. Lucilla Benedetti, Paul Tapponier, Geoffrey C. P. King, and Luigi Piccardi, “Surface Rupture of the 1857 South Italian Earthquake?” Terra Nova 10, no. 4 (2002): 206–210.
89. “Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interferometric_synthetic_aperture_radar (last modified February 4, 2016).
90. Keiiti Aki, “Generation and Propagation of G Waves from the Niigata Earthquake of June 14, 1964: Part 2: Estimation of Earthquake Moment, Released Energy and Stress-Strain Drop from G Wave Spectrum,” Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute 44 (1966): 73–88.
91. Shengji Wei, “Updated Result 3/11/2011 (Mw 9.0), Tohoku-oki, Japan,” Tectonics Caltech, March 11, 2011, http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/slip_history/2011_taiheiyo-oki/; Gilles Peltzer, “Crustal Deformation Studies Using SAR Interferometry.” NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, June 19, 2015, http://www-radar.jpl.nasa.gov/insar4crust/.
92. See, for example, “NASA/University Japan Quake Study Yields Surprises,” NASA: Jet Propulsion Laboratory May 19, 2011, http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=3006.
93. Robert Muir-Wood and Geoffrey C. P. King, “Hydrological Signatures of Earthquake Strain,” Journal of Geophysical Research 98 (1993): 22035–22068.
94. Richard Lloyd Parry, “Japan’s Hot-Spring Spas Drained by Earthquake,” Australian Times, June 4, 2011.
95. George Plafker and J. C. Savage, “Mechanism of the Chilean Earthquakes of May 21 and 22, 1960,” Bulletin of the Geological Society of America 81, no. 4 (April 1970): 1001–1030; George Plafker, “Surface Faults on Montague Island Associated with the 1964 Alaska Earthquake,” US Geological Survey Professional Paper 543-G (1967), 41.
96. Katsuichiro Goda, Takashi Kiyota, Rama Mohan Pokhrel, Gabriele Chiaro, Toshihiko Katagiri, Keshab Sharma, and Sean Wilkinson, “The 2015 Gorkha Nepal Earthquake: Insights from Earthquake Damage Survey,” Frontiers in Built Environment, June 22, 2015, doi:10.3389/fbuil.2015.00008.
CHAPTER 4: THE STORY OF THE THREE LITTLE PIGS
1. Henry Burstow, Reminiscences of Horsham: Being Recollections of Henry Burstow, the Celebrated Bellringer and Songsinger (Norwood Editions, 1975).
2. Arthur Freeman, “Phillipps, James Orchard Halliwell- (1820–1889),” in Oxford Dictionary of National Biography (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004); Charles Nicholl, “Shakespeare’s Scholar Tramp,” The Guardian, April 11, 2014.
3. “The Tale of the Three Little Pigs and the Big Bad Wolf” was included in Nursery Rhymes and Nursery Tales by James Orchard Halliwell-Phillipps, published in 1843.
4. Later versions of this story through the nineteenth century attempted to make the conduct of the wolf (or sometimes the fox) more credible by having him paw at each pig’s house rather than blow at it.
5. William H. TeBrake, “Taming the Waterwolf: Hydraulic Engineering and Water Management in the Netherlands During the Middle Ages,” Technology and Culture 43, no. 3 (July 2002): 475–499, http://www.yorku.ca/slater/documents/tebrake.pdf.
6. Bruno Bettelheim, “The Three Little Pigs: Pleasure Principle Versus Reality Principle,” in The Uses of Enchantment: The Meaning and Importance of Fairy Tales (New York: Vintage Books, 1975).
7. Nathaniel Lloyd, A History of English Brickwork (London: H. Greville Montgomery, 1925).
8. Rand Richards, “Growing Pains (1850–1859),” in Historic San Francisco: A Concise History and Guide (San Francisco: Heritage House Publishers, 2007).
9. Albert Shumate, The California of George Gordon and the 1849 Sea Voyages of His California Association: A San Francisco Pioneer Rescued from the Legend of Gertrude Atherton’s First Novel (Glendale, CA: Arthur H. Clark Co., 1976); Samuel Dickson, Lord George Gordon: Tales of San Francisco (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1992).
10. Walter L. Huber, “San Francisco Earthquakes of 1865 and 1868,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 20 (1930): 261–262.
11. USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, “Historic Earthquakes: Hayward, California: 1868 October 21, 15.53 UTC: Magnitude 6.8,” http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/events/1868_10_21.php.
12. See William H. Prescott, “Circumstances Surrounding the Preparation and Suppression of a Report on the 1868 California Earthquake,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 72, no. 6A (1982): 2389–2393.
13. Stephen Tobriner, “Weighing the Damage 1863–1869,” in Bracing for Disaster: Earthquake-Resistant Architecture and Engineering in San Francisco, 1838–1933 (Berkeley: Heyday Books, 2006), 54.
14. The admission of the distinguished surveyor George Davidson, who had been a member of the original 1868 Committee of Scientific Inquiry almost forty years earlier, was reported in 1908 by the University of California professor of geology Andrew Lawson while writing on his frustration about getting either the state of California or the city of San Francisco to fund research on the 1906 earthquake; he was quoting from a conversation with Davidson. See Oscar Lewis, George Davidson: Pioneer West Coast Scientist (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1954).
15. See Prescott, “Circumstances Surrounding the Preparation and Suppression of a Report. . . .”
16. Dr. Stephen Tobriner, “The Earthquake of 1868 and the Birth of Seismically Resistant Architecture and Engineering in the San Francisco Bay Area” (lecture), http://www.ncgeolsoc.org/SpeakerInfo/2009%20-%202010/DrTobriner_Jan2010_AbstBio.pdf; Tobriner, Bracing for Disaster.
17. Conder would also be honored with a bronze statue outside the current Faculty of Engineering at Tokyo University. See Greg Clancey, Earthquake Nation: The Cultural Politics of Japanese Seismicity, 1868–1930 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2006), 13.
18. Ibid., 14.
19. Ibid., 12.
20. Ibid.
21. Ibid., 61.
22. Ibid., 114–115.
23. Milne and Conder independently set off to investigate the earthquake in the field and published their findings pseudonymously in the English-language newspapers. Milne took a camera and provided history’s first detailed photographic record of earthquake damage.
24. Clancey, Earthquake Nation, 180.
25. “The San Francisco Earthquake, 1906,” EyeWitness to History, 1997, http://www.eyewitnesstohistory.com/sfeq.htm.
26. “Brickmakers Opposition to Re-inforced Concrete,” Architects and Engineers of California 5, no. 2 (1906): 68; “Defends Use of Concrete,” San Francisco Chronicle, June 12, 1906, 9.
27. “An Updated Map of Seattle’s Brick Earthquake Risk Shows Capitol Hill Concentration,” Capitol Hill Seattle, August 22, 2012.
28. Huixian Liu, ed., “The Great Tangshan Earthquake of 1976” (Pasadena: California Institute of Technology, Earthquake Engineering Research Laboratory, 2004).
29. Ioanna Ioannou, et al., “The 29th May 2012 Emilia Romagna Earthquake: EPICentre Field Observation Report” (London: UCL EPICentre, June 21, 2012).
30. Bigman M. Hutapea, et al., “The Mw 6.3 Java, Indonesia, Earthquake of May 27, 2006: Special Earthquake Report” (Oakland, CA: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, 2006).
31. Otto W. Nuttli, Gilbert A. Bollinger, and Robert B. Herrmann, The 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, Earthquake: A 1986 Perspective (Reston, VA: US Geological Survey, 1986).
32. Roberto Meli, et al., “Seismic Design Guide for Low-Rise Confined Masonry Buildings” (Oakland, CA: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, 2011).
33. N. N. Ambraseys and C. F. Finkel, “The Marmara Sea Earthquake of 1509,” Terra Nova 2 (1991): 167–174; N. N. Ambraseys, “The Earthquake of 1509 in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, Revisited,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 91, no. 6 (2001): 1397–1416, doi:10.1785/0120000305.
34. N. N. Ambraseys and C. F. Finkel, “Long-Term Seismicity of Istanbul and the Marmara Sea Region,” Terra Nova 3 (1991): 527–539.
35. Mario Schipano, Roma 1650–1658, vol. 1 of Viaggi di Pietro Della Valle il Pellegrino, La Turchia, La Persia e l‘India (Travels of Pietro Della Valle il Pellegrino in Turkey, Persia, and India), 3 vols. (Torino: G. Gancia, 1843).
36. Conservationtech.com: Building Conservation Technology, “Publications: Books and Articles by Randolph Langenbach on the Subject of Earthquakes and Traditional Building Construction,” http://www.conservationtech.com/RL’s%20resume&%20pub’s/RL-publications/1-EQ-const2.htm.
37. UNESCO World Heritage Center, “Churches of Chiloé,” http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/971.
38. The building in question was the Grand Hotel in San Francisco. See “South Hall and Seismic Safety at the University of California in 1870,” Chronicle of the University of California 1, no. 1 (1998): 16.
39. For an image of a half-timbered house in Turkey next to reinforced-concrete frame construction, see http://www.ofhayrat.com/images/other/793.jpg.
40. Richard Allan, “The Beginnings of the Cretan Palaces: The Proto Palatial Period,” in Greek Architecture, 5th ed., vol. 11, revised by Arnold Walter Lawrence (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1996), 13–17.
41. Joseph Jay Deiss, “Houses of the Middle Class,” in Herculaneum: Italy’s Buried Treasure (Los Angeles: J. Paul Getty Museum, 1985).
42. Randolph Langenbach, “Rescuing the Baby from the Bathwater: Traditional Masonry as Earthquake-Resistant Construction,” presented at the Eighth International Masonry Conference (2010).
43. Marisa Mazria Katz, “The Gingerbread Reclamation,” Wall Street Journal, April 28, 2011.
44. A feature of these structures, in comparison with the half-timbering of Turkey or Kashmir, was that the interiors were lined with wooden boards, giving the structure extra strength.
45. N. N. Ambraseys and C. Finkel, The Seismicity of Turkey and Adjacent Areas: A Historical Review, 1500–1800 (New York: John Wiley, 1996), 93. İzmir continued to be a city of wooden houses until 1922, when it was burned during a battle between Greek and Turkish forces.
46. Matthew Mulcahy, “The Port Royal Earthquake and the World of Wonders in Seventeenth-Century Jamaica,” Early American Studies: An Interdisciplinary Journal 6, no. 2 (2008): 391–421; Matthew Mulcahy, “The Port Royal Fire of 1703,” paper presented at “Disasters! A Conference on Catastrophes in History,” Hagley Museum, Wilmington, DE (2011).
47. As recounted by Ebul Hasan Ali bin Muhammed, leading an ambassador’s delegation from Morocco, quoted in All About Turkey, “The Map for Istanbul and Its Surroundings,” http://www.adiyamanli.org/istanbul.html; see also Republic of Turkey, Ministry of Culture and Tourism, “Istanbul During the Turkish Period,” http://www.kultur.gov.tr/EN,33080/istanbul-during-the-turkish-period.html.
48. B. J. Slot, “The Fires in Istanbul of 1782 and 1784 According to Maps and Reports by Dutch Diplomatic Representatives,” Güneydoğu Avrupa Araştırmaları Dergisi 4–5 (1975–1976): 48–49, http://www.journals.istanbul.edu.tr/iugaad/article/view/1023014624.
49. Zeynep Çelik, The Remaking of Istanbul: Portrait of an Ottoman City in the Nineteenth Century (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1993). 49–81.
50. Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, Istanbul Fire Brigade, “Fires in Istanbul,” http://www.ibb.gov.tr/sites/itfaiye/workarea/en-us/Pages/FiresInIstanbul.aspx.
51. Greg Bankoff, “A Tale of Two Cities: The Pyro-Seismic Morphology of Nineteenth Century Manila,” in Bankoff et al., Flammable Cities, 82–102.
52. Greg Bankoff, “Fire and Quake in the Construction of Old Manila,” Medieval History Journal 10, nos. 1–2 (2007): 411–427, http://www2.hull.ac.uk/FASS/pdf/History-Bankoff-fire2.pdf.
53. Joseph Fayol, “Affairs in the Filipinas, 1644–1647,” in The Philippine Islands, 1493–1803, vol. 35, edited by Emma Blair and Alexander Robertson (Cleveland: A. H. Clark, 1903–1908), 217; Bankoff, “Fire and Quake in the Construction of Old Manila.”
54. Gregory Bankoff, “Living with Risk: Coping with Disasters: Hazard as a Frequent Life Experience in the Philippines,” Education About Asia 12, no. 2 (Fall 2007): 26–29, http://www2.hull.ac.uk/FASS/pdf/History-Bankoff-Livingwithrisk2.pdf.
55. Gerard Lico, Arkitekturang Filipino: A History of Architecture and Urbanism in the Philippines (Manila: University of the Philippines Press, 2008); “Philippine Architecture,” http://nlpdl.nlp.gov.ph:81/CC01/NLP00VM052mcd/v2/v1.pdf.
56. By 1606, there were 3,000 Japanese in the city, a number that increased after the Japanese emperor outlawed Christianity in 1614.
57. “Filipino Architecture and Its Influences: Spanish Colonial,” Openthedorr, posted by Ddmdomag, April 9, 2013, https://openthedorr.wordpress.com/2013/04/09/spanish-colonial/.
58. Lico, Arkitekturang Filipino; “History of Architecture,” http://historyofarchitecture.weebly.com/bahay-na-bato.html.
59. “Baroque Churches of the Philippines,” UNESCO Information Services Section, http://www.unesco.org/archives/multimedia/?s=flvplayer&pg=33&vo=2&vl=Eng&id=185.
60. “Paoay Church,” Heritage Conservation Society, July 27, 2006, https://heritageconservation.wordpress.com/2006/07/27/paoay-church/.
61. On quincha buildings, see Mark Alan Healy, “The ‘Superstition of Adobe’ and the Certainty of Concrete: Shelter and Power After the 1944 San Juan Earthquake in Argentina,” in Buchenau and Johnson, Aftershocks, 100–128. Simple quincha buildings, constructed rapidly and informally after the 1944 earthquake in San Juan, Argentina, were found, against all expectations, to withstand earthquake shaking much better than the traditional thick-walled adobe construction. See Anthony Oliver-Smith, “El Terremoto de 1746 de Lima: El Modelo colonial, el desarrollo urbano y los peligros naturales,” in Historia y desastres en América Latina, vol. 2 (Bogotá: CIESAS/Red de Estudios Sociales en Prevención de Desastres en América Latina [La Red], 1997), 2–20, http://www.desenredando.org/public/libros/1997/hydv2/hydv2_cap05-ETELP_sep-09-2002.pdf.
62. John R. Mullin, “The Reconstruction of Lisbon Following the Earthquake of 1755: A Study in Despotic Planning,” Landscape Architecture and Regional Planning Faculty Publication Series, Paper 45, Planning Perspective 7, no. 2 (1992): 157–179.
63. Kendrick, The Lisbon Earthquake.
64. Rafaela Cardoso, Mário Lopes, and Rita Bento, “Earthquake Resistant Structures of Portuguese Old ‘Pombalino’ Buildings,” Paper 3329, Thirteenth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver, BC, Canada (August 1–6, 2004).
65. Stephen Tobriner, “La Casa Baraccata: Earthquake-Resistant Construction in 18th-Century Calabria,” Journal of the Society of Architectural Historians (1983): 131–138.
66. Halil İnalcık, “Devlet-i ‘Aliyye,” in Osmanlı İmparatorluğu Üzerine Araştırmalar-I. II: Beyazıd Dönemi (1481–1512): Fatih Dönemine Tepki (Istanbul: Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları, 2009), 129–136.
67. Library of Congress, Federal Research Division, “Dominican Republic and Haiti: Country Studies” (Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 2001), https://www.loc.gov/item/2001023524/.
68. N. N. Ambraseys, “The Buyin-Zara (Iran) Earthquake of September, 1962: A Field Report,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 53, no. 4 (July 1, 1963): 705; N. Ambraseys and J. S. Tchalenko, “The Dasht-e Bayāz (Iran) Earthquake of August 31, 1968: A Field Report,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 59, no. 5 (1969): 1751–1792.
69. Parastoo Pourvahidi, “Bioclimatic Analysis of Vernacular Iranian Architecture,” master’s thesis, Eastern Mediterranean University (Gazimağusa, North Cyprus), January 2010, i-rep.emu.edu.tr:8080/jspui/bitstream/11129/98/1/Pourvahidi.pdf.
70. Beverley Adams, et al., “The Bam (Iran) Earthquake of December 26, 2003: Preliminary Reconnaissance Using Remotely Sensed Data and the VIEWS (Visualizing the Impacts of Earthquakes with Satellite Images) System,” MCEER Earthquake Reconnaissance Investigation Report (2004): 10.
71. Stephen Tobriner, “Response of Traditional Wooden Japanese Construction,” National Information Service for Earthquake Engineering (NISEE), University of California at Berkeley, http://nisee.berkeley.edu/kobe/tobriner.html (updated December 9, 1997).
72. Michio Fujioka, Kyoto Gosho (Tokyo: Shokokusha Publishing, 1956), 169–170.
73. Tobriner, “Response of Traditional Wooden Japanese Construction”; Heinrich Engel, The Japanese House: A Tradition for Contemporary Architecture (Rutland, VT: Charles E. Tuttle: 1964), 356–357.
74. Matthew Mulcahy, Hurricanes and Society in the British Greater Caribbean, 1624–1783 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2006), 126.
75. Ibid.
76. Greg J. Holland and George R. Walker, “Tracy Revisited: Historical Perspective, Synoptics, Track, and Winds,” Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 60, no. 3 (2010): 145–154; George R. Walker, “A Review of the Impact of Cyclone Tracy on Building Regulations and Insurance,” Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 60, no. 3 (2010): 199; Robert H. Leicester and Greg Reardon, “Impact Statistics of Tracy and an Opportunity Missed,” Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 60, no. 3 (2010): 2079; Anthony Schofield, Craig Arthur, and Bob Cechet, “Assessing the Impacts of Tropical Cyclone Tracy on Residential Building Stock—1974 and 2008,” Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 60, no. 3 (2010): 213.
77. George Walker, “Cyclone Tracy and the Australian Insurance Industry: The Silver Lining,” Risk Frontiers 9, no. 3 (2010): 1–4; Colin Packham, “Cyclone Tracy and the Australian Insurance Industry: The Silver Lining, Part II,” Risk Frontiers 9, no. 4 (2010): 1–2.
78. “Typhoon Bopha,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Bopha (last modified November 29, 2015).
79. Harold Brooks, “Mobile Home Tornado Fatalities: Some Observations,” NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, March 25, 1997, http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/essays/mobilehome.html.
80. According to NOAA, 31 percent of 823 people killed in US tornadoes during that period were in mobile homes, which made up 8 percent of all housing in the United States.
81. The speed limit is as high as 70 miles per hour in Florida and most of the Eastern states, and up to 75 miles per hour in Oklahoma. See Daniel Albalate and Germà Bel, “Speed Limit Laws in America: Economics, Politics, and Geography,” Working Paper 2010-02 (Barcelona: Research Institute of Applied Economics [IREA], 2010).
CHAPTER 5: RISK MADE CONCRETE
1. Eric Fernie, The Architecture of Norman England (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002).
2. Between 1957 and 1959, twenty-seven of forty-three rocket launches failed. See Dennis R. Jenkins, “Stage and a Half: The Atlas Launch Vehicle,” in To Reach the High Frontier: A History of US Launch Vehicles, edited by Roger D. Launius and Dennis R. Jenkins (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 2002), 70–102.
3. At Canterbury (1070), Chichester (1075), Winchester (1079), Hereford (1079), Rochester (1080), Ely (1083), Worcester (1084), Lichfield (1085), London (1087), Lincoln (1088), Durham (1093), and Norwich (1096).
4. At Exeter (1107), St. Davids (in Pembrokeshire, Wales, 1115), Peterborough (1118), and Bristol (1140).
5. Chichester Cathedral Restoration and Development Trust, “Chichester Cathedral Spire Collapses,” http://www.chichestercathedraltrust.org.uk/chichester-cathedral-spire/.
6. Paul Frankl and Paul Crossley, “The Early Gothic Period,” in Gothic Architecture, vol. 19 (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2000), 67–104.
7. Ibid.
8. The tradition of laying the axis of the chancel east-west gave the building the minimum profile facing the prevailing westerly winds, although the desire was not so much to achieve climatological optimization as simply to face Jerusalem.
9. At the cathedral at Amiens, the original thirteenth-century flying buttresses were sited too high to counteract the lateral load from the roof and a second row of stronger flying buttresses had to be inserted. When even this failed to prevent bowing and cracking in the lower walls, a massive chain of wrought-iron links was heated red-hot and tightened around the whole mezzanine level to keep the columns from further movement.
10. In Japan the large Hōkō-ji temple erected in 1589 in Kyoto was destroyed by an earthquake in 1596, then rebuilt in 1614, only to be destroyed by another earthquake in 1662.
11. William John Macquorn Rankine, A Manual of Applied Mechanic (London: Charles Griffin and Co., 1872).
12. Matthew Wells, Engineers: A History of Engineering and Structural Design (Abingdon, UK: Routledge, 2010).
13. The wind has yet to demolish a modern engineered tall building. While there have been big fires in high-rise buildings, only one such building has ever collapsed simply as a result of catching fire—the forty-seven-story 7 World Trade Center building in lower Manhattan.
14. “History of Reinforced Concrete and Structural Design,” Engineer’s Standpoint, November 10, 2011, http://engineerstandpoint.blogspot.com/2010/09/services.html.
15. Richard Beamish, Memoir of the Life of Sir Marc Isambard Brunel (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013).
16. Sara Wermiel, “The Development of Fireproof Construction in Great Britain and the United States in the Nineteenth Century,” Construction History (1993): 3–26.
17. Geschwind, California Earthquakes, 28, note 31.
18. Charles W. Dickey, “Lessons of the San Francisco Earthquake and Fire,” Architect and Engineer of California 5, no. 1 (1906).
19. John B. Leonard, “How Reinforced Concrete Stood Earthquake and Fire,” Architect and Engineer of California 5, no. 1 (1906).
20. Edwin Duryea, et al. “The Effects of the San Francisco Earthquake of April 18th, 1906, on Engineering Constructions: Reports of a General Committee and of Six Special Committees of the San Francisco Association of Members of the American Society of Civil Engineers,” Transactions of the American Society of Civil Engineers 59, no. 2 (1907): 264–329; Gilbert Grove Karl, Richard Lewis Humphrey, John Stephen Sewell, and Frank Soule, The San Francisco Earthquake and Fire of April 18th, 1906, and Their Effects on Structures and Structural Materials (Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 1907).
21. David Starr Jordan, John Casper Branner, Charles Derleth Jr., Stephen Taber, F. Omari, Harold W. Fairbanks, and Mary Hunter Austin, The California Earthquake of 1906 (San Francisco: A. M. Robertson, 1907).
22. Clancey, Earthquake Nation, 214.
23. Jonathan Reynolds, Maekawa Kunio and the Emergence of Japanese Modernist Architecture (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2001).
24. Clancey, Earthquake Nation, 224–225.
25. Le Corbusier, Towards a New Architecture (London: John Rodker, 1931); Kenneth Frampton, “Corbu, Construed,” Architect 97, no. 4 (2008): 51.
26. Andrew Kroll, “AD Classics: Villa Savoye/Le Corbusier,” ArchDaily, October 27, 2010.
27. Gus Lubin, “Why Architect Le Corbusier Wanted to Demolish Downtown Paris,” Business Insider, August 20, 2013.
28. When in 1934 Le Corbusier’s proposals for Algiers had been rejected, he wrote: “I have been expelled, the doors have been shut in my face. I am right, I am right, I am right.” See Le Corbusier, The Radiant City: Elements of a Doctrine of Urbanism to Be Used as the Basis of Our Machine-Age Civilization (New York: Orion Press, 1967), 260.
29. M. A. Sozen, et al., Engineering Report on the Caracas Earthquake of 29 July 1967 (Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences, 1968).
30. K. V. Steinbrugge, E. E. Schader, and D. F. Moran, “Building Damage in San Fernando Valley,” in San Fernando, California, Earthquake of 9 February 1971 (Sacramento: California Division of Mines and Geology, 1975), 323–353.
31. Nicole B. Trujillo, “1985 Mexico City Earthquake Summary and Lessons Learned,” Wikispace, 2012, https://failures.wikispaces.com/1985+Mexico+City+Summary+%26+Lessons+Learned.
32. Mario Ordaz and Roberto Meli, “Seismic Design and Codes in Mexico,” Paper 4000, Thirteenth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver, BC, Canada (August 1–6, 2004).
33. L. Teresa Guevara-Perez, “‘Soft Story’ and ‘Weak Story’ in Earthquake Resistant Design: A Multidisciplinary Approach,” paper presented at the World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon (2012).
34. Tsuneo Okada, “Pursuit of Creation of Sustainable Architectural Space,” JR EAST Technical Review 4 (2004): 2–3.
35. Toshihide Kashima, Shin Koyama, Masanori Iiba, and Izuru Okawa, “Dynamic Behavior of a Museum Building Retrofitted Using Base Isolation System,” Fourteenth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Beijing (October 12–17, 2008), http://www.iitk.ac.in/nicee/wcee/article/14_05-06-0021.PDF.
36. Approximately an additional 0.1 second for each story of the building—thus, a ten-story building oscillates at one cycle per second. See Christopher Arnold, “Earthquake Effects on Buildings,” chapter 4 in Risk Management Series: Designing for Earthquakes: A Manual for Architects, FEMA 454 (Washington, DC: Federal Emergency Management Agency, December 2006).
37. Ronald O. Hamburger, Helmut Krawinkler, James O. Malley, and Scott M. Adan, “Seismic Design of Steel Special Moment Frames: A Guide for Practicing Engineers,” Seismic Design Technical Brief No. 2, NIST GCR 09-917-3 (Washington, DC: US Department of Commerce, National Institute of Standards and Technology [NIST], National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program [NEHRP], 2009); Ofelia Moroni and C. Gomez, “Concrete Shear Wall Construction,” Report 4, World Housing Encyclopedia (Earthquake Engineering Research Institute and International Association for Earthquake Engineering, 2002).
38. Robert Tremblay, et al., “Performance of Steel Structures During the 1994 Northridge Earthquake,” Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 22, no. 2 (1995): 338–360; Stephen A. Mahin, James O. Malley, Ronald O. Hamburger, and Michael Mahoney, “Overview of the US Program for Reduction of Earthquake Hazards in Steel Moment-Frame Structures,” Earthquake Spectra 19 (2003): 237–254.
39. Cheng Song, Santiago Pujol, and Andrés Lepage, “The Collapse of the Alto Río Building During the 27 February 2010 Maule, Chile Earthquake,” Earthquake Spectra 28, no. S1 (June 2012): S301–S334, http://www.earthquakespectra.org/doi/abs/10.1193/1.4000036?journalCode=eqsa; American Red Cross Multidisciplinary Team, “Report on the 2010 Chilean Earthquake and Tsunami Response,” US Geological Survey, Open-File Report 2011-1053, version 1.1.0, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1053/.
40. Shunsuke Otani, “Japanese Seismic Design of High-Rise Reinforced Concrete Buildings—An Example of Performance Based Design Code and State of Practices,” Paper 5010, Thirteenth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver, BC, Canada (August 1–6, 2004).
41. “The Art of Detailing,” PCA: America’s Cement Manufacturers, http://www.cement.org/think-harder-concrete-/buildings-structures/design-aids/detailing.
42. R. I. Gilbert, “Detailing of Reinforcement in Concrete Structures,” Civil and Structural Engineering Panel, Engineers Australia Sydney Division, August 28, 2012, http://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/sites/default/files/detailing_of_reinforcement_in_concrete_structures_28_aug_2012.pdf.
43. J. Despeyroux, “The Agadir Earthquake of February 29th 1960: Behavior of Modern Buildings During the Earthquake,” paper presented at the Second World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Tokyo (1960), http://www.iitk.ac.in/nicee/wcee/article/vol.1_session5_521.pdf.
44. John F. Meehan, Henry J. Degenkolb, Donald F. Moran, Karl V. Steinbrugge, Lloyd S. Cluff, Gary A. Carver, R. B. Mathiesen, and Charles F. Knudson, Managua, Nicaragua, Earthquake of December 23, 1972: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) Reconnaissance Report (Oakland, CA: EERI, May 1973).
45. Mark Alan Healey, “The ‘Superstition of Adobe’ and the Certainty of Concrete: Shelter and Power After the 1944 San Juan Earthquake in Argentina,” in Buchenau and Johnson, Aftershocks, 100–128.
46. Vasile I. Marza, “On the Death Toll of the 1999 Izmit (Turkey) Major Earthquake,” European Seismological Commission Proceedings (2004).
47. George C. Lee and Chin-Hsiung Loh, eds., The Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Earthquake of September 21, 1999: Reconnaissance Report (Buffalo, NY: University at Buffalo, Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research, 2000).
48. “Egypt: Cairo Building Collapse Death Toll Rise to 15—Mena,” AllAfrica, November 25, 2014, http://allafrica.com/stories/201411251663.html; “Why Are Buildings Collapsing in Egypt?” http://egyptbuildingcollapses.org/; “392 Buildings Collapse in One Year, 52% Due to Lack of Regulation: EIPR,” Cairo Post, June 8, 2014, http://thecairopost.youm7.com/news/114082/inside_egypt/392-building-collapses-in-one-year-52-due-to-lack-of-regulation-eipr.
49. Hossam S. Badawi and Sherif A. Mourad, “Observations from the 12 October 1992 Dahshour Earthquake in Egypt,” Natural Hazards 10, no. 3 (November 1994): 261–274.
50. Fatemah Farag, “Shaken, Not Stirred,” Al-Ahram Weekly, August 29, 2002, http://www.masress.com/en/ahramweekly/22655.
51. Michael O. Ajufoh, W. A. Gumau, and Yaktor Joshua Inusa, “Curbing the Menace of Building Collapse in Nigeria,” International Letters of Natural Sciences 15, no. 2 (2014): 168–178.
52. Olabosipo I. Fagbenle and Adedamola O. Oluwunmi, “Building Failure and Collapse in Nigeria: The Influence of the Informal Sector,” Journal of Sustainable Development 3, no. 4 (2010): 268–276.
53. Roger Bilham, “The Seismic Future of Cities,” Twelfth Annual Mallet Milne Lecture, Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 7, no. 4 (2009): 839–887, doi:10.1007/s10518-009-9147-0.
54. Laws 229–233 of Hammurabi’s Code of Laws (c. 1780 BC), from a stone slab discovered in 1901 and preserved in the Louvre Museum in Paris.
55. “Rome: A City of Rental Property,” http://romaninsulae.weebly.com/dangers-of-living-in-an-insula.html; The Geography of Strabo, vol. II (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press/Loeb Classical Library, 1923), 235, http://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Strabo/5C*.html.
56. James Lewis, “Earthquake Destruction: Corruption on the Fault Line,” in Transparency International, Global Corruption Report 2005: Corruption in Construction and Post-Conflict Reconstruction (London: Pluto Press, 2005), 23–25; Penny Green, “Disaster by Design: Corruption, Construction, and Catastrophe,” British Journal of Criminology 45, no. 4 (July 2005): 528–546.
57. Nicholas Ambraseys and Roger Bilham, “Corruption Kills: Supplementary Materials 1: The Influence of Poverty and Corruption on the Loss of Life in Earthquakes,” Nature 469 (January 2011): 153–155. More than 80 percent of deaths from building collapses in earthquakes in the last three decades occurred in corrupt and poor countries.
58. “Rescue Operations over for Collapsed School in Haiti,” The Guardian, November 11, 2008.
59. Roger Bilham, “Lessons from the Haiti Earthquake,” Nature 463 (2010): 878–879.
60. Deborah Sontag, “Two Years After Haiti Quake, Safe Housing Is a Dream for Many,” New York Times, August 16, 2012.
CHAPTER 6: MR. HEATH’S LITTLE BLACK BOOK
1. Ilana Krausman Ben-Amos, The Culture of Giving: Informal Support and Gift-Exchange in Early Modern England (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008).
2. Samuel Pepys, entry of June 30, 1661, in Diary of Samuel Pepys (Teddington, Middlesex, UK: Echo Library, 2006).
3. Peter George Muir Dickson, The Sun Insurance Office, 1710–1960: The History of Two and a Half Centuries of British Insurance (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1960), 3.
4. Ibid., 3.
5. Neil Hanson, The Great Fire of London in That Apocalyptic Year, 1666 (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley and Sons, 2002).
6. Alan D. Dyer, “The Influence of Bubonic Plague in England, 1500–1667,” Medical History 22, no. 3 (1978): 308–326.
7. “Charles II, 1666: An Act for Rebuilding the City of London,” in Statutes of the Realm, vol. 5, 1628–1680 (1819), 603–612.
8. Anthony Sutcliffe, London: An Architectural History (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2006).
9. Christine Stevenson, “Robert Hooke: Monuments and Memory,” Art History 28, no. 1 (2005): 43–73.
10. Becoming a builder would have made Barbon very rich if he had not chosen to ignore niceties such as planning authority for what he built, or owning the land on which his properties were developed, or providing proper foundations to his houses, some of which began to fall down soon after they were erected. See Dickson, The Sun Insurance Office, 1710–1960, 7–9.
11. Barbon, seeking to “avoid those Disputes which might arise about the Dimensions, Form and substantialness of Building,” offered to rebuild any properties destroyed by fire. However, he soon substituted financial compensation as an alternative to “replacing the property.”
12. Dickson, The Sun Insurance Office, 1710–1960, 8–11.
13. Ibid.
14. Ibid., 11–16.
15. Ibid., 324. See also Robin Pearson, Insuring the Industrial Revolution: Fire Insurance in Great Britain, 1700–1850 (Aldershot, UK: Ashgate, 2004); Jennifer Anne Carlson, “The Economics of Fire Protection: From the Great Fire of London to Rural/ Metro,” Economic Affairs 25, no. 3 (2005): 39–44; Dickson, The Sun Insurance Office, 1710–1960, 23.
16. An exception was for ransom insurance in pirate-infested waters. See Tim Armstrong, “Slavery, Insurance, and Sacrifice in the Black Atlantic,” in Sea Changes: Historicizing the Ocean, edited by Klein Bernhard (New York: Routledge, 2004), 167–185.
17. Robin Pearson, “Moral Hazard and the Assessment of Insurance Risk in Eighteenth- and Early Nineteenth-Century Britain,” Business History Review 76, no.1 (May 2002): 1–35.
18. Dirk Schubert, “The Great Fire of Hamburg,” in Bankoff et al., Flammable Cities, 212–234.
19. Originally, “reinsurance” meant exchanging part of the risk with another insurer. But insurers were not keen on sharing information or prices with their competitors. They could reinsure with an insurer in another state or country, but that was complicated to arrange. See E. W. Kopf, “Notes on the Origin and Development of Reinsurance,” Proceedings of the Casualty Actuarial Society 16 (1929): 33–34, https://www.casact.org/pubs/proceed/proceed29/29022.pdf; David M. Holland, “Reinsurance: A Brief History,” Reinsurance News (special issue) 65 (February 2009).
20. Peter Borscheid, David Gugerli, and Tobias Straumann, The Value of Risk: Swiss Re and the History of Reinsurance (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013).
21. Dait Baranoff, “Fire Insurance in the United States,” EH.Net Encyclopedia, edited by Robert Whaples, March 16, 2008, http://eh.net/encyclopedia/fire-insurance-in-the-united-states/.
22. Sara E. Wermiel, “Did the Fire Insurance Industry Help Reduce Urban Fires in the United States in the Nineteenth Century?” In Bankoff et al., Flammable Cities, 235–253.
23. In 1888 the city of Sundsvall in Sweden, built of wood, burned to the ground. A group of reinsurers, Swiss Re among them, let Sweden’s insurers know that there was going to be a limit in the future on losses from wooden houses, and that this limit was going to be low. Sweden began building with stone.
24. Wermiel, “Did the Fire Insurance Industry Help Reduce Urban Fires. . . .”
25. Ibid.
26. Daniel Defoe, An Essay upon Projects (London: Cassell & Co., 1887).
27. “The UK’s Worst Convective Storm of the Last 200 Years, 9th August 1843,” Severe Weather Photography from Mid-Wales,” http://www.geologywales.co.uk/storms/1843.htm.
28. Antony Brown, Cuthbert Heath: The Maker of the Modern Lloyds of London (London: David and Charles, 1980).
29. “Loss by fire or storm” insurance was written sporadically in the late nineteenth century as an added peril to fire insurance, and it was sold until 1880 by local or farmers’ mutual insurers in the Eastern United States. The first insurance that covered windstorms specifically was written in the Midwest toward the end of the century under the title of “Tornado Insurance” and continued to be written until 1930.
30. “Redwood’s Claims as a Fire Resistant Substantiated,” American Lumberman (May 26, 1906): 25.
31. In the hours between the earthquake and the fire, those who photographed a surprisingly lightly damaged city would find that their images acquired great value in later disputes with insurers. See Stephen Tobriner, “An EERI Reconnaissance Report: Damage to San Francisco in the 1906 Earthquake: A Centennial Perspective,” Earthquake Spectra 22, no. S2 (2006): 11–41.
32. Tobriner, Bracing for Disaster, 193–194.
33. Lloyd’s, “San Francisco Earthquake: Lloyd’s and the San Francisco Earthquake, 1906,” 2006, http://www.lloyds.com/lloyds/about-us/history/catastrophes-and-claims/san-francisco-1906-earthquake.
34. Robert A. James, “Six Bits or Bust: Insurance Litigation over the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and Fire,” Western Legal History 24, no. 2 (2011): 127–165, https://www.pillsburylaw.com/siteFiles/Publications/SixBitsorBustInsuranceLitigation.pdf; Rene Siemens and Peter Gillon, “Lessons from the Great Fire of 1906,” Risk Management, December 1, 2010.
35. For a list of these companies, see Tilmann Röder, Rechtsbildung im wirtschaftlichen Weltverkehr: Das Erdbeben von San Francisco und die internationale Standardisierung von Vertragsbedingungen (1871–1914), vol. 206 (Frankfurt am Main: Vittorio Klostermann Verlag, 2006), 341–351.
36. Charles Scawthorn, Thomas Denis O’Rourke, and F. T. Blackburn, “The 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and Fire: Enduring Lessons for Fire Protection and Water Supply,” Earthquake Spectra 22, no. S2 (2006): 135–158, http://scawthornporter.com/documents/06Spectra1906SFEQandFire-EnduringLessonsCRSTDOFTB.pdf.
37. Total insurance premiums collected in the city of San Francisco between January 1 and June 30, 1907, was $3,876,430, as compared with $1,606,204 during the same period in 1905.
38. Tilmann J. Röder, “The Roots of the ‘New Law Merchant’: How the International Standardization of Contracts and Clauses Changed Business Law,” October 4, 2006, forum historiae iuris, http://www.forhistiur.de/es/2006-10-roder/.
39. “Disaster: The Earthquake of 1907,” Pieces of the Past, January 14, 2002, http://old.jamaica-gleaner.com/pages/history/story0017.html.
40. The local Jamaica Cooperative, with business foresight, made a compromise agreement around paying for fire claims (thus securing by its generosity “good will and future business”): shopkeepers agreed to pay one-third of their debts plus whatever share they received from any insurance settlement.
41. David Dutton, “The Strange Case of Edward Hemmerde,” Journal of Liberal History 69 (Winter 2010–2011): 6–16; Frederick Edwin Smith Birkenhead, “Fire and Earthquake in Jamaica,” in Famous Trials of History (London: Hutchinson, 1926), 245–256; Ansell Hart of Newport (Manchester) Jamaica, “Monthly Comments Jamaica,” West Indies 6, nos. 17–19 (April–June 1969).
42. Evening Post 76, no. 106 (October 31, 1908): 15; London Times, August 1, 1908.
43. Charles D. James, The 1923 Tokyo Earthquake and Fire (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2002).
44. Takau Yoneyama, “The Great Kanto Earthquake and the Response of Insurance Companies: A Historical Lesson on the Impact of a Major Disaster,” Hitotsubashi University, 2008, https://apebhconference.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/yoneyama-20081.pdf.
45. Ibid.
46. In 1914 German reinsurers had two-thirds of the global reinsurance market, but all trade ceased with France and Britain and, after 1917, also with the United States. In its place, many new reinsurers arose in countries uninvolved in the conflict, like Denmark and Switzerland. Russian reinsurers were successful in the United States until the 1917 revolution, after which only one Russian reinsurer remained.
47. “Mr. Baldwin on Aerial Warfare—A Fear for the Future,” The Times, November 11, 1932.
48. A. Claire Cutler, Virginia Haufler, and Tony Porter, eds., Private Authority and International Affairs (Albany: State University of New York Press, 1999), 207.
49. “War Damage Insurance,” Yale Law Journal 51, no. 7 (May 1942): 1160–1174, http://www.jstor.org/stable/792291?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents; “War Damage Bill: House of Commons Debate, 12 February 1964 vol 689 cc 431–48,” Hansard 1803–2005, http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1964/feb/12/war-damage-bill.
50. “Changes to Disaster Insurance in New Zealand,” Bulletin of the New Zealand National Society for Earthquake Engineering 26, no. 4 (1993).
51. C. T. Lowndes & Company, “About Us,” http://www.ctlowndes.com/about/about.htm; A More Detailed History of C. T. Lowndes & Company (Charleston, SC: C. T. Lowndes & Company, 2015); Richard J. Roth Sr. and Howard Kunreuther, eds., Paying the Price: The Status and Role of Insurance Against Natural Disasters in the United States (Washington, DC: Joseph Henry Press, 1998).
52. Oyugi Margaret Achieng, “Actuarial Modeling for Insurance Claim Severity in Motor Comprehensive Policy Using Industrial Statistical Distributions,” presented at International Congress of Actuaries, 2010, http://www.actuaries.org/EVENTS/Congresses/Cape_Town/Papers/Non-Life%20Insurance%20(ASTIN)/22_final%20paper_Oyugi.pdf.
CHAPTER 7: THE GARDEN OF THE FORKING PATHS
1. Jorge Luis Borges, El Jardín de senderos que se bifurcan (Buenos Aires: Editorial Sur, 1941), translated as “The Garden of Forking Paths,” in Ficciones, translated by Andrew Hurley (London: Penguin Books, 1944), 75–86, http://www.coldbacon.com/writing/borges-garden.html.
2. The book was little noticed and soon went out of print. However, Borges wrote six more enigmatic short stories, and his publisher, considering them too meager for a separate compilation, added them to the original eight stories and changed the title of the collection to Ficciones. The book El Jardín de senderos que se bifurcan disappeared, its fork in the path of history ending in oblivion. Yet Borges as a writer had taken the first steps on a path that would lead to translation and international acclaim.
3. Sharon Ghamari-Tabrizi, The Worlds of Herman Kahn: The Intuitive Science of Thermonuclear War (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2009).
4. Nicholas Metropolis, “The Beginning of the Monte Carlo Method,” Los Alamos Science 15, no. 584 (1987): 125–130.
5. At RAND in Santa Monica, California, mathematicians worked alongside economists and strategy planners, employing probabilistic methods to consider strategic options, game theory, and the likely moves of the enemy.
6. Born in 1938 at Mobridge, South Dakota, C. Allin Cornell passed away on December 14, 2007. See Robin K. McGuire, Thomas C. Hanks, and Jack W. Baker, “C. Allin Cornell (1938–2007),” Seismological Research Letters 79, no. 3 (2008): 382–383.
7. Carl Allin Cornell, “Stochastic Processes in Civil Engineering,” PhD thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, Stanford University, 1964. Cornell took up his first academic appointment at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology as a Ford Foundation Fellow and was promoted to a faculty appointment in 1966.
8. Paula Garb, “Critical Masses: Opposition to Nuclear Power in California, 1958–1978” (book review), Journal of Political Ecology 6 (1999).
9. National Research Council (United States), Committee on the Alaska Earthquake, The Great Alaska Earthquake of 1964, Part 1 (Washington, DC: National Academies, 1968).
10. Arnold J. Meltsner, “The Communication of Scientific Information to a Wider Public: The Case of Seismology in California,” Minerva 17 (1979): 331–354, 333.
11. Richard L. Meehan, The Atom and the Fault: Experts, Earthquakes, and Nuclear Power (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1984).
12. Robin K. McGuire, “Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Early History.” Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics 37, no. 3 (2008): 329–338.
13. C. Allin Cornell, “Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 58, no. 5 (1968): 1583–1606.
14. Sylvester Theodore Algermissen and David M. Perkins, “A Probabilistic Estimate of Maximum Ground Acceleration in Rock in the Contiguous United States,” US Geological Survey, Open-File Report 76-416, 1976.
15. However, Mexican researchers were the leaders in work to combine probabilistic thinking in mapped hazards, producing a probabilistic hazard map for Mexico in 1968. See Charles Scawthorn, “A Brief History of Seismic Risk Assessment,” in Risk Assessment, Modeling, and Decision Support: Strategic Directions, edited by Ann Bostrom, Steven French, and Sara Gottlieb (Berlin: Springer Verlag, 2008), 1–70.
16. Thomas F. Malone, “The Travelers Weather Research Center,” Weatherwise 7, no. 6 (1954): 159.
17. Don G. Friedman, “Insurance and the Natural Hazards,” ASTIN Bulletin: International Journal for Actuarial Studies in Non-Life Insurance and Risk Theory 7, no. 1 (1972): 4–58.
18. Don G. Friedman, “Computer Simulation in Natural Hazard Assessment,” Monograph NSF-RA-E-l S-002 (Boulder: University of Colorado, Program on Technology, Environment, and Man, 1975).
19. Richard W. Schwerdt, Francis P. Ho, and Roger R. Watkins, “Meteorological Criteria for Standard Project Hurricane and Probable Maximum Hurricane Windfields, Gulf and East Coasts of the United States,” NOAA Technical Report NWS 23 (Washington, DC: US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 1979).
20. Francis P. Ho, J. C. Su, K. L. Hanevich, R. J. Smith, and F. P. Richards, “Hurricane Climatology for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States,” NOAA Technical Report NWS 38 (Washington, DC: US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 1987).
21. Art Jahnke, “The Acts of God Algorithm: Why the Insurance Industry Is Headed for the Perfect Storm,” Bostonia (2010).
22. Don G. Friedman, “Natural Hazard Risk Assessment for an Insurance Program,” Geneva Risk and Insurance Review 9, no. 30 (January 1984): 57–128, doi:10.1057/gpp.1984.4.
23. Karen M. Clark, “A Formal Approach to Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Management,” Proceedings of the Casualty Actuarial Society 123, no. 140 (1986): 69–92.
24. James M. Gere and Haresh C. Shah, Terra Non Firma: Understanding and Preparing for Earthquakes (San Francisco: W. H. Freeman & Co., 1984).
25. Weimin Dong had been director of earthquake research for the Design Institute of the Ministry of Machine Building and had visited Tangshan to study building and equipment failures within ten days of the 1976 earthquake.
26. The project was sponsored by the Aetna insurance company and Salomon investment bank. See Patricia Grossi, Weimin Dong, and Auguste Boissonnade, “Evolution of Earthquake Risk Modeling,” Risk Management 1 (2008): 1; also presented at the Fourteenth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Beijing (October 12–17, 2008). A summary of their work, published in June 1988, had Weimin Dong as the lead author on the article “A Knowledge-Based Seismic Risk Evaluation System for the Insurance and Investment Industries (IRAS)”; such a system could analyze earthquake losses probabilistically on individual buildings or portfolios of buildings. See Weimin Dong, John Eup Kim, Felix S. Wong, and Haresh Shah, “A Knowledge-Based Seismic Risk Evaluation System for the Insurance and Investment Industries (IRAS),” Technical Report 5 (Stanford, CA: Stanford University, Center for Integrated Facility Management, June 1988), http://cife.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/TR005.pdf.
27. Jahnke, “The Acts of God Algorithm.”
28. Thomas Starner, “Model Citizen,” Risk and Insurance (July 1, 2003), http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Model+citizen%3A+Hemant+Shah’s+youthful+exterior+belies+a+very+smart...-a0105477038.
29. Andrew Duguid, On the Brink: How a Crisis Transformed Lloyd’s of London (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2014); Martin Mayer and Elizabeth Luessenhop, Risky Business: An Insider’s Account of the Disaster at Lloyd’s of London (New York: Scribner, 2010).
30. Lilla Zuill, “1993 Bermuda Cat Reinsurers Celebrate 1st Decade,” Property Casualty 360 (August 27, 2003).
31. Tonkin & Taylor Ltd., “Liquefaction Vulnerability Study,” report prepared for Earthquake Commission, February 2013, http://www.eqc.govt.nz/sites/public_files/documents/liquefaction-vulnerability-study-final.pdf.
32. Emanuela Guidoboni, Alberto Comastri, and Giusto Traina, Catalogue of Ancient Earthquakes in the Mediterranean Area up to the 10th Century (Bologna: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica, 1994).
33. Auguste Boissonnade, “Modeling Demand Surge,” Risk Assessment and Communication Workshop, Stanford University, Risk Management Solutions (2007).
34. Gordon Woo, Calculating Catastrophe (London: Imperial College Press, 2011).
35. Julian Bommer, et al., “Development of an Earthquake Loss Model for Turkish Catastrophe Insurance,” Journal of Seismology 6, no. 3 (2002): 431–446.
36. Antonio R. T. Joyette, Leonard A. Nurse, and Roger S. Pulwarty, “Disaster Risk Insurance and Catastrophe Models in Risk-Prone Small Caribbean Islands,” Disasters 39, no. 3 (2015): 467–492.
37. Dimitris Papachristou, “Statistical Analysis of the Spreads of Catastrophe Bonds at the Time of Issue,” ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association 41, no. 1 (2011): 251–277.
38. Dante O. Portula and Reynaldo Vergara, “Case Study: The Philippine Experience on Microinsurance Market Development,” for the Training Program of Insurance Supervisors in Asia, organized by Access to Insurance Initiative, AITRI, GIZ-RFPI, and Toronto Center, Manila, Philippines (August 2013).
39. William Dick and Andrea Stoppa, Weather Index-Based Insurance in Agricultural Development: A Technical Guide, prepared for the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and World Food Program (WFP) Weather Risk Management Facility (WRMF) (2012).
40. Angelika Wirtz, Petra Löw, Thomas Mahl, and Sibel Yildirim, “Hitting the Poor: Public-Private Partnership as an Option,” in Extreme Natural Hazards, Disaster Risks, and Societal Implications, edited by Alik Ismail-Zadeh et al. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014), 386–398.
41. Kenneth R. Feinberg, Camille S. Biros, Jordana Harris Feldman, Deborah E. Greenspan, and Jacqueline E. Zins, Final Report of the Special Master for the September 11th Victim Compensation Fund of 2001, vol. 1 (Washington, DC: US Department of Justice, n.d.), http://www.glad.org/uploads/docs/history/pdfs/walsh-victim-fund-report_(1).pdf.
42. Robert P. Hartwig, “9/11 and Insurance: The Five Year Anniversary,” Insurance Information Institute, September 2006, http://www.iii.org/sites/default/files/docs/pdf/September%2011%20Anniversary.pdf.
43. Elisabeth Bumiller, “Bush Pledges Federal Role in Rebuilding Gulf Coast,” New York Times, September 16, 2005.
44. “New Orleans Betrayed,” Washington Post, January 29, 2006.
45. Eugene Boyd, “Community Development Block Grant Funds in Disaster Relief and Recovery,” Congressional Research Service, September 21, 2011, https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL33330.pdf.
46. “Testimony of Paul Rainwater, Executive Director of the Louisiana Recovery Authority, Before the US House Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity, August 20, 2009,” Louisiana Recovery Authority, http://archives.financialservices.house.gov/media/file/hearings/111/rainwater.pdf.
47. Bruce R. Lindsay and Justin Murray, “Disaster Relief Funding and Emergency Supplemental Appropriations,” Congressional Research Service, April 12, 2011, https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40708.pdf; Natalie Keegan, “The Louisiana Road Home Program: Federal Aid for State Disaster Housing Assistance Programs,” Congressional Research Service, July 31, 2009, https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=714345.
48. Peter J. Boyer, “The Bribe: How the Mississippi Lawyer Who Brought Down Big Tobacco Overstepped,” The New Yorker, May 19, 2008.
49. On July 6, 2012, the president signed into law the Consumer Option for an Alternative System to Allocate Losses (COASTAL) Act of 2012, which authorizes FEMA to arrive at a formula for settling slab claims (now known as “indeterminate losses”) to be based on “very sophisticated models,” for which FEMA was to submit a plan to Congress in April 2013 for an operational system by December 28, 2013.
50. “Consumer Option for an Alternative System to Allocate Losses (COASTAL) Act Project Work Plan,” USACE-USGS Coordination Meeting, January 17, 2014, http://www.iwr.usace.army.mil/Portals/70/docs/projects/2014Jan17/COASTAL_Act_Pres_17Jan.pdf. The system was first exercised for Hurricane Erika in 2015, although the storm dissipated before reaching Florida. See “Federal Coordination and Planning for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research,” http://www.ofcm.gov/homepage/text/FedCoordandPlanningFY2016.pdf.
51. Cassius Dio, Roman History, book LXVI, sections 21–24 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press/Loeb Classical Library, 1925), 305–309.
52. John Eugene Haas and Robert S. Ayre, The Western Sicily Earthquake of 1968: A Report (Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences, 1969); Giacomo Parrinello, Fault Lines: Earthquakes and Urbanism in Modern Italy (New York: Berghahn Books, 2015).
53. Half was spent on creating “a whole new class of social millionaires in the affected region,” while one-sixth went to the Camorra and one-tenth to bribe local politicians. See Antonello Caporale, “Il Terremoto Infinito: Irpinia, 20 anni dopo,” La Repubblica, December 13, 2004; Tom Behan, “The Administrative Economy and the 1980 Earthquake,” in The Camorra: Political Criminality in Italy (London: Routledge, 1996), 59–74.
54. “1908 Summer Olympics,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1908_Summer_Olympics (last modified February 5, 2016).
55. The French “Catastrophe Naturelle” system was funded, like the UK wartime bomb damage insurance, as a uniform-percentage “solidarity” charge on all fire insurance. See Véronique Bruggeman, Compensating Catastrophe Victims: A Comparative Law and Economics Approach (Alphen aan Den Rijn, Netherlands: Kluwer Law International, 2010), 302–314.
56. John M. Barry, Rising Tide: The Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 and How It Changed America (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2007).
57. Unnecessarily, as the river had already found a shorter route to the sea upstream.
58. Gilbert White, Human Adjustments to Floods: A Geographical Approach to the Flood Problem in the United States (Chicago: University of Chicago, 1945).
59. American Academy of Actuaries, Flood Insurance Subcommittee, The National Flood Insurance Program: Past, Present . . . and Future? (Washington, DC: American Academy of Actuaries, 2011).
60. “Testimony of J. Robert Hunter, Director of Insurance, Consumer Federation of America, Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs of the United States Senate Regarding Proposals to Reform the National Flood Insurance Program,” February 2, 2006, https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-109shrg33994/html/CHRG-109shrg33994.htm.
61. Debbie Matz, “Guidance on Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2012” (Alexandria, VA: National Credit Union Administration, April 1, 2013).
62. Andrew G. Simpson, “House Passes Flood Insurance Bill; Key Senators Sign On,” Insurance Journal News, March 4, 2014; Bruce Alpert, “Senate Passes Bill Averting Largest Flood Insurance Increases Under Biggert-Waters,” New Orleans Times-Picayune, March 13, 2014.
63. Lynne McChristian, “Hurricane Andrew and Insurance: The Enduring Impact of an Historic Storm” (Tampa, FL: Insurance Information Institute, August 2012), 16, http://www.iii.org/sites/default/files/paper_HurricaneAndrew_final.pdf.
64. Charles Scawthorn, “Insurance Loss Estimation: Performance After the Northridge Earthquake,” Contingencies (September–October 1995): 26–36.
65. Philip D. LeGrone, “An Analysis of Fire Sprinkler System Failures During the Northridge Earthquake and Comparison with the Seismic Design Standard for These Systems,” Paper 2136, Thirteenth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver, BC, Canada (August 1–6, 2004), http://www.iitk.ac.in/nicee/wcee/article/13_2136.pdf.
66. Sebastian von Dahlen and Goetz von Peter, “Natural Catastrophes and Global Reinsurance—Exploring the Linkages,” BIS Quarterly Review (December 2012): 23–35, http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1212e.pdf.
67. The Florida Residential Property and Casualty Joint Underwriting Association (FRCJUA) later merged into Citizens Property Insurance Corporation.
68. To obtain a mortgage required that fire insurance (but strangely, not earthquake insurance) be in place on the property.
69. Consider the impact of a $100,000 loss on a $500,000 (rebuild value) property, from which the insured would only be compensated one-quarter of outlays, or $25,000. The California Earthquake Authority was a publicly managed but privately funded agency offering limited earthquake insurance coverage.
70. Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan, “Mortgages and Disasters: A Ticking Bomb?” presented at the conference “Managing Earthquake Shake,” Washington, DC, September 26, 2014, http://biotech.law.lsu.edu/blog/Erwann-Michel-Kerjan_Mortgages-and-Disasters.pdf.
71. Rawle O. King, “The National Flood Insurance Program: Status and Remaining Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, February 6, 2013, http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42850.pdf; W. J. T. Mitchell, ed., Landscape and Power (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2002).
72. Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan, Coping with Extreme Events and Extra-ordinary Situations (personal blog), http://erwannmichelkerjan.com/did-you-know/; Howard C. Kunreuther and Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan, At War with the Weather: Managing Large-Scale Risks in a New Era of Catastrophes (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2009).
73. Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), “FONDEN: Mexico’s National Disaster Fund: An Evolving Inter-Institutional Fund for Post-Disaster Expenditures,” GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Case Study, January 2013, https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/gfdrr.org/files/documents/Mexico_FONDEN_final_GFDRR.pdf.
CHAPTER 8: INTOLERABLE RISK
1. Herman Pleij, Hollands Welbehagen (The Well-being of Holland) (Amsterdam: Ooievaar, 1998).
2. Sophie Thasing, “On terpen from Flanders up to Frisia: Two Maritime Regions from the Last Centuries BC Until the Late Middle Ages Compared,” Vlaams Institut voor de Zee, 89–96, www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/252971.pdf.
3. G. J. Borger, “Draining—Digging—Dredging: The Creation of a New Landscape in the Peat Areas of the Low Countries,” in Fens and Bogs in the Netherlands: Vegetation, History, Nutrient Dynamics, and Conservation, edited by Jos T. A. Verhoeven (Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic, 1992), 131–171.
4. TeBrake, “Taming the Waterwolf: Hydraulic Engineering and Water Management in the Netherlands During the Middle Ages”; Daniel R. Curtis and Michele Campopiano, “Medieval Land Reclamation and the Creation of New Societies: Comparing Holland and the Po Valley, c. 800–c. 1500,” Journal of Historical Geography 44 (2014): 93–108.
5. Salvatore Ciriacono, “Venice and Holland: Amphibious States,” in Building on Water: Venice, Holland, and the Construction of the European Landscape in Early Modern Times, translated by Jeremy Scott (New York: Berghahn, 2006), 157–193.
6. Borger, “Draining—Digging—Dredging,” 49–50.
7. Jaap-Evert Abrahamse, Menne Kosian, and Henk Weerts, “The ‘Amstel Canal’ in Amsterdam Canal Construction as Part of the Medieval Reclamation and Drainage System of the Western Netherlands Wilderness,” EGU 2013-10767, Geophysical Research Abstracts 15 (2013).
8. Tim Soens, “Flood Security in the Medieval and Early Modern North Sea Area: A Question of Entitlement?” Environment and History 19, no. 2 (2013): 209–232.
9. M. K. E. Gottschalk, Stormvloeden en Rivieroverstromingen in Nederland, 3 vols. (Assen, Netherlands: Van Gorcum & Comp. NV, 1971–1977); Adriaan de Kraker, “Storminess in the Low Countries, 1390–1725,” Environment and History 19, no. 2 (2013): 149–171.
10. Richard S. J. Tol and Andreas Langen, “A Concise History of Riverine Floods and Flood Management in the Dutch Rhine Delta,” Climate Change 46 (2000): 357–369.
11. Ibid.
12. L. C. Geerts, “The St. Elisabeth Flood of 1421 (November 18, 1421) or the Collapse of the Hollandsche Waard,” http://geerts.com/dordrecht/st-elisabeth-flood-1421.
13. Robert J. Hoeksema, Designed for Dry Feet: Flood Protection and Land Reclamation in the Netherlands (Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2006).
14. R. Glaser and H. Stangl, “Historical Floods in the Dutch Rhine Delta,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 3, no. 6 (2003): 605–613.
15. Andries Vierlingh, Tractae van dyckagie, edited by J. de Hullu and A.G. Verhoeven (1920; reprint, Den Haag, the Netherlands: Martinus Nijhoff, 2008), http://dbnl.org/tekst/vier004trac01_01/vier004trac01_01.pdf.
16. Andries Vierlingh advocated a patient approach because “water will not be compelled by any force or it will return that force unto you.” He wrote that it was necessary to “direct the streams from the shore without vehemence. With subtlety and sweetness you may do much at low cost.” Vierlingh, Tractaet van dyckagie.
17. “Jan Adriaanszoon Leeghwater: Developer of a System for Creating Agricultural Land from the Sea,” The Robinson Library, http://www.robinsonlibrary.com/technology/engineering/biography/leeghwater.htm (last updated February 28, 2015).
18. Simon Schama, The Embarrassment of Riches: An Interpretation of Dutch Culture in the Golden Age (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1988).
19. “Water Management in the Netherlands” (Rijkswaterstaat Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, 2011), https://staticresources.rijkswaterstaat.nl/binaries/Water%20Management%20in%20the%20Netherlands_tcm21-37646.pdf.
20. Robert Slomp, “Flood Risk and Water Management in the Netherlands: A 2012 Update” (Rijkswaterstaat Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, 2012).
21. Michitaro Nakai, “The Outline of the River Law,” Network of Asian River Basin Organizations (NARBO), http://www.narbo.jp/narbo/event/materials/twwa03/tw03_09_01-2.pdf.
22. “Makurazaki Typhoon,” Bousai Prefecture, Hiroshima Disaster Prevention (website, in Japanese), http://www.bousai.pref.hiroshima.jp.e.bq.hp.transer.com/hdis/.
23. “1959 Super Typhoon Vera: 50-Year Retrospective: RMS Special Report” (London: Risk Management Solutions, 2009), http://forms2.rms.com/rs/729-DJX-565/images/tc_1959_super_typhoon_vera.pdf.
24. Yutaka Takahasi, “Flood Management in Japan During the Last Half-Century,” Working Paper 1/2011 (Singapore: Institute of Water Policy, June 2011), http://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/iwp/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2013/04/201106_Takahasi-IWP_WP_01.pdf; “Typhoon Vera,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Vera (last modified February 7, 2016).
25. National Land Agency, Japan, “Disaster Counter Measures Basic Act” (Act No. 223, November 15, 1961) (provisional translation), June 1997, http://www.adrc.asia/documents/law/DisasterCountermeasuresBasicAct.pdf.
26. Tom Mitchell, Debarati Guha-Sapir, Julia Hall, Emma Lovell, Robert Muir-Wood, Alastair Norris, Lucy Scott, and Pascaline Wallemacq, “Setting, Measuring and Monitoring Targets for Reducing Disaster Risk: Recommendations for Post-2015 International Policy Frameworks” (London: Overseas Development Institute, October 2014), figures 15–20, http://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/9215.pdf.
27. Associated Programme on Flood Management (APFM), “Integrated Flood Management Case Study, Japan: Tokai Heavy Rain (September 2000)” (World Meteorological Organization and Global Water Partnership APFM, January 2004), http://www.apfm.info/publications/casestudies/cs_japan_full.pdf.
28. Teruko Sato, “Fundamental Characteristics of Flood Risk in Japan’s Urban Areas,” in A Better Integrated Management of Disaster Risks: Toward Resilient Society to Emerging Disaster Risks in Mega-cities, edited by S. Ikeda, T. Fukuzono, and Teruko Sato (Tokyo: Terra Scientific Publishing Company and NIED, 2006), 23–40, http://www.terrapub.co.jp/e-library/nied/pdf/023.pdf.
29. Stephen Tobriner, The Genesis of Noto: An Eighteenth-Century Sicilian City (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1982).
30. Ibid.; Stephen Tobriner, “Safety and Reconstruction of Noto After the Sicilian Earthquake of 1693: The Eighteenth-Century Context,” in Dreadful Visitations: Confronting Natural Catastrophe in the Age of Enlightenment, edited by Alessa Johns (New York: Routledge, 1999): 49–80.
31. Tobriner, The Genesis of Noto; M. S. Barbano, et al. “Seismic History and Hazard in Some Localities of South-eastern Sicily,” Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica ed Applicata 42, nos. 1–2 (2001): 107–120.
32. Tobriner, The Genesis of Noto.
33. Stephen Tobriner, “Building the Cathedral of Noto: Earthquakes, Reconstruction, and Building Practice in 18th-Century Sicily,” Construction and Building Materials 17, no. 8 (2003): 521–532; S. Tringali, R. de Benedictis, C. Gavarini, and Rosanna La Rosa, “The Cathedral of Noto: From the Analysis of the Collapse to the Restoration and Reconstruction Project,” Proceedings of the UNESCO/ICOMOS International Millennium Congress Archi, Paris (2000), http://www.unesco.org/archi2000/pdf/tringali.pdf.
34. David Marley, Historic Cities of the Americas: An Illustrated Encyclopedia, vol. 2, North America and South America (Santa Barbara, CA: ABC-CLIO, 2005).
35. Vicente Carvallo Goyeneche, Descripción Histórico Geográfica del reino de Chile, vol. 2, ch. 87, written between 1780 and 1796, published in 1875, available at Fuentes documentales y bibliográficas para el estudio de la historia de Chile, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, http://www.historia.uchile.cl/CDA/fh_complex/0,1393,SCID%253D7181%2526ISID%253D404%2526JNID%253D12,00.html.
36. “1939 Chillán Earthquake,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_Chill%C3%A1n_earthquake (last modified July 13, 2015).
37. Elizabeth Bell, Antigua Guatemala: The City and Its Heritage (La Antigua, Guatemala: Antigua Tours, 1999).
38. Julio Galicia Díaz, Destrucción y traslado de la ciudad de Santiago de Guatemala, no. 4 (Guatemala City: Editorial Universitaria, 1976).
39. “1773 Guatemala Earthquake,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1773_Guatemala_earthquake (last modified December 5, 2015).
40. Mauricio A. Pajon, “Building Opportunity: Disaster Response and Recovery After the 1773 Earthquake in Antigua Guatemala,” PhD thesis, University of Texas at Austin, 2013 http://repositories.lib.utexas.edu/bitstream/handle/2152/21159/PAJON-DISSERTATION-2013.pdf?sequence=1; Juan González Bustillo, Extracto, ô relacion methodica, y puntual de los autos de reconocimiento, praticado en virtud de comission del señor presidente de la real audiencia de este reino de Guatemala (Mixco: Antonio Sánchez Cubillas, 1774), 13–14.
41. Díaz, Destrucción y traslado.
42. Pajon, Building Opportunity, 50.
43. “Antigua Guatemala,” UNESCO, World Heritage Convention, http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/65.
44. Marshall H. Saville, “The Guatemala Earthquake of December, 1917, and January, 1918,” Geographical Review 5, no. 6 (1918): 459–469.
45. Mark Alan Healey, “The ‘Superstition of Adobe’ and the Certainty of Concrete: Shelter and Power After the 1944 San Juan Earthquake in Argentina,” in Buchenau and Johnson, Aftershocks, 100–128.
46. D. E. E. Braman, Braman’s Information About Texas: Carefully Prepared (Philadelphia: J. B. Lippincott & Co., 1858).
47. Erik Larson, Isaac’s Storm: A Man, a Time, and the Deadliest Hurricane in History (New York: Crown Publishers, 1999).
48. Ibid.
49. Jodi Wright-Gidley and Jennifer Marines, Galveston: A City on Stilts (Charleston, SC: Arcadia Publishing, 2008).
50. Muhammad Sadaqat, “Balakot City: A Tale of the Forgotten Town,” Express Tribune, October 8, 2012; Zhu Ziyu, Li Ming, and Huang Shuo, “Post-Quake Reconstruction Planning and Implementation for Beichuan New Town,” presented at Forty-Eighth International Society of City and Regional Planners (ISOCARP) Congress, Perm, Russia (September 10–13, 2012), http://www.isocarp.net/Data/case_studies/2149.pdf.
51. P. Abercrombie, “Wren’s Plan for London After the Great Fire,” Town Planning Review 10, no. 2 (1923): 71–78.
52. Stephen Porter, The Great Fire of London (Stroud, Gloucestershire, UK: The History Press, 2011).
53. Sir Christopher Wren, Christopher Wren Jr., and Stephen Wren, Parentalia: or, Memoirs of the family of the Wrens … Chiefly of Sir Christopher Wren (London: T. Osborn and R. Dodsley, 1750), 269.
54. “Charles II, 1670: An Additionall, Act for the rebuilding of the Citty of London, uniteing of Parishes and rebuilding of the Cathedrall and Parochiall Churches within the said City,” Statutes of the Realm, vol. 5, 1628–1680, edited by John Raithby (London: Great Britain Record Commission, 1819), 665–682, British History Online, http://www.british-history.ac.uk/statutes-realm/vol5/pp603-612.
55. Angela Delaforce, “The Dream of a Young Architect: Robert Adam and a Project for the Rebuilding of Lisbon in 1755,” in Portugal e o Reino Unido: A Aliança Revisitada (Lisbon: Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian, 1995), 56–60; Robert Cherny, “Burnham Plan 1905: Historical Essay,” FoundSF, http://foundsf.org/index.php?title=Burnham_Plan_1905.
56. Stefano Condorelli, “The Reconstruction of Catania After the Earthquake of 1693,” Proceedings of the Second International Congress on Construction History 1 (2006): 799–816.
57. Named after José de la Guerra, former commandant of the Presidio in Santa Barbara (before California passed into American hands in 1846). See Neal Graffy, “The Great Santa Barbara Earthquake—The Disaster That Built a City: Day 3,” Santa Barbara Edhat, July 1, 2010.
58. The advisory committee came up with a set of proposed new Spanish-style facades for State Street stores.
59. Steven Brooke, Miami Beach Deco (New York: Universe Publishing, 2011).
60. John Annabell, “Napier After the Earthquake: Reconstruction and Planning in the 1930s,” Planning Quarterly 162 (2006): 2–7.
61. “Gibellina,” SYNCHRONICITY (blog), May 10, 2009, http://synccity.blogspot.co.uk/2009/05/gibellina.html.
62. Harry O. Wood, “Preliminary Report on the Long Beach Earthquake,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 23, no: 2 (1933): 44–56; Maureen K. Fleury, “The Long Beach Earthquake 1933,” May 20, 2009, http://www.suite101.com/content/the-long-beach-earthquake-1933-a118990#ixzz1AN5Xq05v; Susan Fatemi and Charles James, “The Long Beach Earthquake of 1933,” National Information Service for Earthquake Engineering, University of California at Berkeley, http://nisee.berkeley.edu/long_beach/long_beach.html (updated December 8, 1997).
63. Alfred E. Alquist, “The Field Act and Public School Construction: A 2007 Perspective,” California Seismic Safety Commission, February 2007, http://www.seismic.ca.gov/pub/CSSC_2007-03_Field_Act_Report.pdf.
64. National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities (NCEF), “Earthquakes and Schools,” NCEF, 2008, appendix B, http://www.ncef.org/pubs/earthquakes.pdf.
65. Shinzo Abe, statement made at the opening ceremony of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, Sendai, Japan (March 14, 2015).
66. Nicola Alessandro Pino, et al., “The 28 December 1908 Messina Straits Earthquake (Mw 7.1): A Great Earthquake Throughout a Century of Seismology,” Seismological Research Letters 80, no. 2 (2009): 243–259.
67. Giacomo Parrinello, “The 1908 Messina Earthquake,” in Parrinello, Fault Lines, 21–50.
68. M. S. Teramo, et al., “A Damage Scenario for the City of Messina, Italy, Using Displacement-Based Loss Assessment,” presented at the Fourteenth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Beijing (October 12–17, 2008), http://www.iitk.ac.in/nicee/wcee/article/14_07-0023.PDF.
69. Richard V. Lee, “Darwin’s Earthquake,” Revista Médica de Chile 138 (2010): 897–901, http://www.scielo.cl/pdf/rmc/v138n7/art16.pdf.
70. Renee Salanders, “First Hand Account of Chilean Earthquake,” Oklahoma Daily, March 1, 2010.
71. Francisco Medina, Peter I. Yanev, and Alexander P. Yanev, “The Magnitude 8.8 Offshore Maule Region Chile Earthquake of February 27, 2010: Preliminary Summary of Damage and Engineering Recommendations: A Report to the World Bank” (Berkeley: University of California, 2010).
72. D. E. Alexander, “Mortality and Morbidity Risk in the L’Aquila, Italy, Earthquake of 6 April 2009 and Lessons to Be Learned,” in Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, no. 29, Human Casualties in Earthquakes, edited by Robin S. Spence, Emily So, and Charles Scawthorn (Berlin: Springer, 2011).
73. Of the mortgaged residential properties in Chile, 96 percent had insurance against earthquakes in 2010. Michael Useem, Howard Kunreuther, and Erwann Michel-Kerjan, “From Nepal Quake, Lessons for the US,” Philadelphia Inquirer, April 27, 2015.
74. “Chile Sacks Oceanography Chief over Failure to Issue Tsunami Warnings,” The Telegraph, March 6, 2010.
75. Oliver L. Fassig, “San Felipe—The Hurricane of September 13, 1928, at San Juan, PR,” Monthly Weather Review (September 1928): 350–352.
76. Jorge Ortiz Colom, “The Essence of Puerto Rican Historic Architecture.” Academia.edu, January 24, 2003, Instituto de Cultura Puertorriqueña, http://www.academia.edu/1502878/The_Essence_of_Puerto_Rican_Historic_Architecture.
77. James R. Beverley, “Excerpts from the Thirty-Third Annual Report of the Governor of Puerto Rico (1933),” 1–6, New Deal Network, http://newdeal.feri.org/pr/pr12.htm.
78. E. J. Humphreys, ed., “West Indian Hurricanes of August and September, 1932,” Monthly Weather Review 60, no. 9 (September 1932): 177–178, http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/060/mwr-060-09-0177.pdf.
79. Starting with the construction of rows of identical 900-square-foot concrete buildings on the old San Patricio farm south of San Juan Bay. Arq. Jorge Ortiz Colom, “The Essence of Puerto Rican Historic Architecture,” P&S: Patrimonio y Sociedad, June 6, 2005, http://patrimonioysociedad.blogspot.co.uk/2005/06/essence-of-puerto-rican-historic.html.
80. Jan Geraets, “Hurricanes on Saint Martin: The Constitutional Impact of Hurricanes in the Lesser Antilles in a Comparative Perspective,” master’s thesis, Department of History, Leiden University (2012).
CHAPTER 9: THE DISASTER FORECAST
1. Jón Frímann, “Small Streams Around Hekla Volcano Dry Up,” Earth Changes and the Pole Shift, November 29, 2010, http://poleshift.ning.com/profiles/blogs/small-streams-around-hekla.
2. Floyd W. McCoy and Grant Heiken, eds., Volcanic Hazards and Disasters in Human Antiquity, vol. 345 (Boulder, CO: Geological Society of America, 2000).
3. Angelo Heilprin, Mont Pelée and the Tragedy of Martinique: A Study of the Great Catastrophes of 1902, with Observations and Experiences in the Field (Philadelphia: J. B. Lippincott Co., 1903); Alwyn Scarth, La Catastrophe: The Eruption of Mount Pelée, the Worst Volcanic Eruption of the Twentieth Century (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002).
4. Jelle Zeilinga De Boer and Donald Theodore Sanders, “The 1902 Eruption of Mount Pelée: A Geological Catastrophe with Political Overtones,” in Jelle Zeilinga De Boer and Donald Theodore Sanders, Volcanoes in Human History: The Far-Reaching Effects of Major Eruptions (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2002), 186–208.
5. Alwyn Scarth, “Montagne Pelée, 1902,” in Alwyn Scarth, Vulcan’s Fury: Man Against the Volcano (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1999), 156–189.
6. Basse-Terre is also the highest point in the Lesser Antilles. François Beauducel, “À Propos de la Polémique ‘Soufrière 1976,’” IPGP.fr, August 2006, http://www.ipgp.fr/~beaudu/soufriere/forum76.html.
7. Noel-Jean Bergeroux, “La Soufrière ne constitue plus un danger pour les populations environnantes,” Le Monde, July 18, 1976, http://www.ipgp.fr/~beaudu/soufriere/1976-07-18_LeMonde.jpg.
8. “Le Processus est irréversible, nous courons à la catastrophe, déclare le professeur Brousse,” France Antilles, August 16, 1976, http://www.ipgp.fr/~beaudu/soufriere/1976-08-16_FranceAntilles_3.jpg.
9. Dominique Pouchin, “M. Haroun Tazieff à la Guadeloupe: Il ne faut pas manquer de sang-froid,” Le Monde, August 31, 1976, http://www.ipgp.fr/~beaudu/soufriere/1976-08-31_LeMonde.jpg.
10. Haroun Tazieff, “La Soufrière et la prévision volcanologique,” Le Monde, October 6, 1976, http://www.ipgp.fr/~beaudu/soufriere/1976-10-06_LeMonde.jpg.
11. Alexander McBirney, “Obituary: Haroun Tazieff (1914–98),” Nature 392, no. 6675 (1998): 444.
12. Beauducel, “À Propos de la polémique.”
13. Alwyn Scarth, “Nevado del Ruiz,” in Scarth, Vulcan’s Fury, 226–243.
14. Dick Thompson, “After Armero,” in Dick Thompson, Volcano Cowboys: The Rocky Evolution of a Dangerous Science (New York: Macmillan, 2002), 180–205.
15. C. Dominik Güss and Oliver I. Pangan, “Cultural Influences on Disaster Management: A Case Study of the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption,” International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters 22, no. 2 (August 2004): 31–58, http://www.ijmed.org/articles/383/download/.
16. Alwyn Scarth, “Pinatubo, 1991,” in Scarth, Vulcan’s Fury, 254–273.
17. Tim Weiner, “Mexicans Resist Flight from ‘Friendly’ Volcano,” New York Times, December 19, 2000.
18. Erik Klemetti, “World’s Most Dangerous Volcano May Kill Another City,” Wired, July 29, 2015, http://www.wired.com/2015/07/worlds-dangerous-volcano-threatens-huge-city/; S. Judenherc and A. Zollo, “The Bay of Naples (Southern Italy): Constraints on the Volcanic Structures Inferred from a Dense Seismic Survey,” Journal of Geophysical Research 109 (2004): B10312, http://people.na.infn.it/~zollo/articoli/JGR_2004_a/2003JB002876.pdf.
19. “2001 Vesuvius Emergency Plan (Updated in 2007),” Protezione Civile, http://www.protezionecivile.gov.it/jcms/en/view_pde.wp;jsessionid=3DDAFAE6B2D6096A41CF68577C44324F?contentId=PDE12771.
20. B. De Vivo, G. Rolandi, P. B. Gans, A. Calvert, W. A. Bohrson, F. J. Spera, and H. E. Belkin, “New Constraints on the Pyroclastic Eruptive History of the Campanian Volcanic Plain (Italy),” Mineralogy and Petrology 73, no. 1 (November 2001): 47–65, http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs007100170010; Kathryn E. Fitzsimmons, Ulrich Hambach, Daniel Veres, and Radu Iovita, “The Campanian Ignimbrite Eruption: New Data on Volcanic Ash Dispersal and Its Potential Impact on Human Evolution,” PLoS ONE 8, no. 6 (2013): e65839, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0065839, http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0065839; Richard V. Fisher, Giovanni Orsi, Michael Ort, and Grant Heiken, “Mobility of a Large-Volume Pyroclastic Flow—Emplacement of the Campanian Ignimbrite, Italy,” Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 56 (1993): 205–220, http://volcanology.geol.ucsb.edu/camptuff.htm; Antonio Costa, et al., “Quantifying Volcanic Ash Dispersal and Impact of the Campanian Ignimbrite Super-eruption,” Geophysical Research Letters 39 (2012), http://www.academia.edu/421040/Quantifying_volcanic_ash_dispersal_and_impact_of_the_Campanian_Ignimbrite_super-eruption.
21. John F. Hoffecker, Vance T. Holliday, M. V. Anikovich, A. A. Sinitsyn, V. V. Popov, S. N. Lisitsyn, G. M. Levkovskaya, G. A. Pospelova, Steven L. Forman, and Biagio Giaccio, “From the Bay of Naples to the River Don: The Campanian Ignimbrite Eruption and the Middle to Upper Paleolithic Transition in Eastern Europe,” Journal of Human Evolution 55 (2008): 858–870, http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/~nabo/meetings/glthec/materials/hoffecker/Hoffeckeretal2008.pdf.
22. John Guest, Paul Cole, Angus Duncan, and David Chester, Volcanoes of Southern Italy (London: Geological Society, 2003).
23. Yoshiyuki Tatsumi and Keiko Suzuki-Kamata, “Cause and Risk of Catastrophic Eruptions in the Japanese Archipelago,” Proceedings of the Japan Academy, series B, 90 (2014): 347–352, https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/pjab/90/9/90_PJA9009B-01/_pdf.
24. Laurent Dubois, Haiti: The Aftershocks of History (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2012), 335–336.
25. K. E. Bullen, “Imamura, Akitsune,” in Dictionary of Scientific Biography, vol. 7 (New York: Charles Scribner’s Sons, 1970–1980), 9–10.
26. In 1900 Ōmori identified the next likely earthquake locations in southern Italy (adjacent to those that had already happened): in Messina and in the Avezzano region—events that duly arrived in 1908 and 1915.
27. Charles Davison, “Fusakichi Ōmori and His Work on Earthquakes.” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 14 (1924): 240–255.
28. Ōmori, “Tokyo Observations of the Strong Earthquake on Jan. 14, 1923,” IEIC, Seismological Notes, no. 6 (Tokyo, 1924), 10.
29. Carl-Henry Geschwind, “1920s Prediction Reveals Some Pitfalls of Earthquake Forecasting,” EOS: Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, September 2, 1997.
30. Bailey Willis, “Earthquake Risk in California,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 14 (1924): 21–23.
31. Geschwind, “1920s Prediction Reveals . . .”
32. Robert T. Hill, Southern California Geology and Los Angeles Earthquakes, with an Introduction to the Physical Geography of the Region (Los Angeles: Southern California Academy of Sciences, 1928).
33. Robert O. Castle, et al. “Elevation Changes Preceding the San Fernando Earthquake of February 9, 1971,” Geology 2, no. 2 (1974): 61–66.
34. Max Wyss, “Interpretation of the Southern California Uplift in Terms of the Dilatancy Hypothesis,” Nature 266 (1977): 805–808; Robert O. Castle, Jack P. Church, and Michael R. Elliott, “Aseismic Uplift in Southern California,” Science 192, no. 4236 (1976): 251–253; Richard A. Kerr, “Palmdale Bulge Doubts Now Taken Seriously,” Science 14, no. 4527 (1981): 1331–1333. “Earthquake prediction, long treated as the seismological family’s weird uncle, has in the last few years become everyone’s favorite nephew”; quoted in “Can We Predict the Coming California Earthquake?” Popular Science (November 1976): 79–82.
35. Kelin Wang, Qi-Fu Chen, Shihong Sun, and Andong Wang, “Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 96, no. 3 (2006): 757–795; “China Says She Predicted Big Quake,” New York Times, March 1, 1975.
36. Liu Huixian, et al., “The Great Tangshan Earthquake of 1976: Overview Volume” (Pasadena: California Institute of Technology, Earthquake Engineering Research Laboratory, 2002), http://authors.library.caltech.edu/26539/1/Tangshan/Overview.pdf.
37. Aberto A. Giesecke, “Case History of the Peru Prediction of 1980–81,” http://www.desastres.hn/docum/crid/Septiembre-Octubre2005/CD-1/pdf/eng/doc15925/doc15925-contenido.pdf; Richard S. Olson, Bruno Podesta, and Joanne M. Nigg, The Politics of Earthquake Prediction (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1989).
38. William H. Bakun, et al. “Implications for Prediction and Hazard Assessment from the 2004 Parkfield Earthquake,” Nature 437, no. 7061 (2005): 969–974; William H. Bakun and Allan G. Lindh, “The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment,” Science 229, no. 4714 (1985): 619–624.
39. Richard A. Kerr, “Seismic Crystal Ball Proving Mostly Cloudy Around the World,” Science 332, no. 6032 (2011): 912–913; Nicola Nosengo, “Scientists on Trial over L’Aquila Deaths,” Nature 474, no. 7349 (2011): 15.
40. “Stephen S. Hall, “Scientists on Trial: At Fault?” Nature News 477, no. 7364 (2011): 264–269.
41. Nicola Nosengo “New Twists in Italian Seismology Trial: Californian Scientist Testifies Against Defendants in Quake Manslaughter Case,” Nature, February 16, 2012, doi:doi:10.1038/nature.2012.10049.
42. W. Jason Morgan, “Rises, Trenches, Great Faults, and Crustal Blocks,” Journal of Geophysical Research 73, no. 6 (1968): 1959–1982, doi:10.1029/JB073i006p01959.
43. Kunihiko Shimazaki, “The Giant Tsunami Had Been Foreseen, but Not Been Included in Disaster Design,” translated from the Japanese by Taku Tada, Kagaku (Science Journal) 81, no. 10 (October 2011): 1002–1006.
44. Larry J. Ruff and Hiroo Kanamori, “Seismicity and the Subduction Process.” Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors 23 (1980): 240–252.
45. Seth Stein and Emile A. Okal, “The 2004 Sumatra Earthquake and Indian Ocean Tsunami: What Happened and Why?” The Earth Scientist (National Earth Sciences Teachers Association) 21, no. 2 (2005): 6–11, http://www.earth.northwestern.edu/public/seth/research/nestasumatra.pdf.
46. The Nihon Sandai Jitsuroku (The True History of Three Reigns of Japan), also known as Sandai Jitsuroku, was an official history written in AD 901 and covering the period AD 858–887.
47. Yuki Sawai, Yushiro Fujii, Osamu Fujiwara, Takanobu Kamataki, Junko Komatsubara, Yukinobu Okamura, Kenji Satake, and Masanobu Shishikura, “Marine Incursions of the Past 1,500 Years and Evidence of Tsunamis at Suijin-numa, a Coastal Lake Facing the Japan Trench,” The Holocene 18, no. 4 (2008): 517–528.
48. “Was 869 Tohoku Quake Japan’s Strongest?” National Daily Yomi, October 12, 2007.
49. Jogan was the era of the emperor who ruled Japan when the tsunami hit and Sanriku the name for this section of coastline.
50. K. Satake, Y. Sawai, M. Shishikura, Y. Okamura, Y. Namegaya, and S. Yamaki, “Tsunami Source of the Unusual AD 869 Earthquake Off Miyagi, Japan, Inferred from Tsunami Deposits and Numerical Simulation of Inundation,” abstract T31G-03, presented at the fall 2007 meeting of the American Geophysical Union, http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFM.T31G..03S.
51. Eric Talmadge, “Quake-Damaged Nuclear Plant in Japan Shut, Leak Worse Than Thought; Auto Plants Closed,” Associated Press, July 18, 2007.
52. “Japanese Nuclear Plant’s Evaluators Cast Aside Threat of Tsunami,” Washington Post, March 23, 2011.
53. S. Fraser, G. S. Leonard, I. Matsuo, and H. Murakami, “Tsunami Evacuation: Lessons from the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of March 11th 2011,” GNS Science Report 2012/17, April 2012, http://crew.org/sites/default/files/SR%202012–017.pdf.
54. Lucy Birmingham, “Japan’s Earthquake Warning System Explained,” Time, March 18, 2011.
55. Tomomi Sasaki, “Japan: Not That Sound Again,” Global Voices, March 14, 2011, http://globalvoicesonline.org/2011/03/14/japan-not-that-sound-again/.
