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Abu Ghraib, 292–93
accidental nuclear strikes, 174
accurate missiles, 178
Ackerman, Thomas, 168–70
adaptation, 300–301
adaptive agents, in agent-based simulations, 283–84
affluence, and food supply, 105, 106
agent-based simulation, 280–87
aggressive nuclear strikes, 174
AIDS/HIV, 197, 198, 205, 206
Air France Flight 447, 287–89
air traffic control systems, 25–26
Allan, Tony, 230, 314n
al-Qaeda, 115, 117, 188–89
alternating current (AC), 222–23
Amazon.com, 50–51
Ambrose, Stanley, 21, 304n
analog vs. digital, 241–42
anatomy of an X-event, 273–75
Andromeda Strain, The (Crichton), 29–31
anticipating X-events, 24, 40–41, 273–74; mathematical tools for, 278–80, 316n
Antonine Plague, 197
Arab Spring, 9–13, 27, 53; Internet shutdown, 74–75, 86. See also specific countries
Arbesman, Samuel, 6, 14
arms reduction, 178
ARPAnet, 71
artificial intelligence, 239–46, 314n
Ashby, W. Ross, 56, 304n
Asimov, Isaac, 244–45
Athanassoulas, Alexander, 56
avian flu, 23, 203, 207–8, 313n
Bankers Trust, 290
Barabasi, Albert-Làszló, 202
Bardhan, Pranab, 124–25
baseball hitting streaks, 6–7
Becket, Thomas, 257–58
bee colony collapse disorder, 23, 98–102, 307–8n
bell curve, 34–37, 35n
Ben Ali, Zine El Abidine, 53–54
Bengal famine of 1943, 105
Berg, Bryan, 1–2, 303–4n
bifurcation theory, 277
Big Bang, 148, 151–55
bioterrorism, 211. See also pandemics
bird flu. See avian flu
Birks, John, 166–67, 168
Black, Fischer, 37
Black Death, 62, 198
black holes, 81–82, 149–52, 157–59
Black-Scholes formula, 37
Black Swan, The (Taleb), 37–40
black swans, 37–40
Bookstaber, Richard, 289–91
Bouillard, Alain, 288
Brazil, 72–73, 285, 286
Brock, William “Buz,” 277
Buchanan, Pat, 55
budget deficit, US, 260–61, 268–69
Buffett, Warren, 261–62
bunkers, 140–41
“bureaucratic creep,” 129
Burt’s Bees, 100
Bush, George W., 55, 192
butterfly effect, 54–55, 72, 126–27, 174
Byzantine Empire, 45–46
cable fragility, 83
Cambrian explosion, 138
Campbell, Colin, 184–85
Camus, Albert, 195–97, 312n
Capone, Al, 126
Carpenter, Stephen, 276–78, 316n
Carr, Nicholas, 292
Carroll, Lewis, 49
Carson, Rachel, 100
“Cassandra effect,” 292–93
Cat’s Cradle (Vonnegut), 31, 32, 145, 156
central banking, 255–56, 257
CERN (European Nuclear Research Center), 146–51, 155–59
Chako Paul, 72
Cheney, Dick, 192
Chicken Little, 19
China: agent-based simulation, 285–87, 317n; dust bowls, 104; financial system, 52–53, 124; globalization, 49–50; Internet outage, 73–74; Japanese tragedy and, 297; nuclear landscape, 173; public outbreaks, 206; water shortages, 104, 106
Christopher, John, 96–97, 307n
Chung-Li virus, 96–97, 307n
cigarette smoking, 203–4
Clarke, Roger, 244–45
climate change. See global warming
Clinger, Gilbert, 110
Clinton, Bill, 188
Club of Rome, 193–94
Cobb, Ty, 7
coffeemakers, 41–42
Cold War, 161–66
Collapse of Complex Societies, The (Tainter), 44, 45, 49
Collapse of Globalism, The (Saul), 124–25, 309n
collision, systems in, 9–15
colony collapse disorder (CCD), 98–102, 307–8n
“complexity creep,” 51
complexity gaps, 14–15; characterizing and measuring, 36–37, 287–88
complexity overload, 24, 42, 44–46, 62, 162, 216, 304–5n
complexity principles, 47–58
complexity trap, 1–4
Compton effect, 112
computer code, 42–43
consumer spending, 259–60
Conway, Kim, 220
cosmic rays, 159
“creative destruction,” 269
credit default swaps (CDS), 256–57
Crichton, Michael, 29–31
critical slowing down, 279–80
cropland, 104, 106
Crutzen, Paul, 166–67, 168
currencies (currency markets), 106, 124, 251–52. See also dollars, US; euro currency
Darby, Joe, 292–93
dark matter, 150, 152
Day After the Dollar Crashes, The (Vickers), 251–52, 253
Death of Grass, The (Christopher), 96–97, 307n
deduction, 53
Defense Department, US, 70–71, 135, 162
deflation, 143, 262–69, 315–16n
deflationary spiral, 262–68
deliberate Internet attacks, 85–89
Demon of Our Own Design, A (Bookstaber), 289–91
deposit insurance, 254–55
deregulation, 224, 257
deteriorating transmission grid, 224
Diamond, Jared, 198–99, 305n
Dickenson, Ray, 88
DiMaggio, Joe, 6–7, 14
dinosaurs, 21–22
direct current (DC), 222–23
disaster myths, 295–97, 317n
Dixon, Paul, 154
Doctor Strangelove (movie), 163
dollars, US, 106, 124, 131, 141, 251–52, 253, 260, 262, 268
Domain Name Server (DNS), 68–71, 75, 87–89
doomsday seed vault, 97–98, 102
DOS attacks, 69–71, 75, 84–85, 87–89
droughts, 228
drugs, 205, 207
Duffy, Hugh, 7
Dunavan, Claire, 198–99
dust bowl, 104
Dutch elm disease, 94
early-warning principles, 278–80
East-Midwest Blackout of 2003, 215–16
Ebola fever, 199–200, 313n
“edge of chaos,” 51
Edison, Thomas, 222–23
Egypt, 9, 54, 129; Internet shutdown, 11, 74–75, 83, 86
Einstein, Albert, 157
Eldredge, Nils, 137–38
electric power grid, 219, 221–23, 313n; history of, 222–23; vulnerabilities in system, 223–26
electric power grid failures, 212–26; adding it all up, 231–32; East-Midwest Blackout of 2003, 215–16; Great Northeast Blackout of 1965, 213–15, 225; New York City blackout of 1977, 212–13, 215
electromagnetic pulse (EMP), 109–21, 308–9n; adding it all up, 120–21; appropriate response to attack, 117–18; possible terrorist scenario, 115–16; preventing attack, 119–21
Eliot, T. S., 257–58, 295
e-mail, 70, 71–72, 78
emergent behaviors or traits, 48–49, 282
EMP Threat Commission, 118
endemics, 197
Enemy Within scenario, 133–34
engineers, 225
epidemics, 197
Eppel, Noam, 89–90, 307n
Estonia, Internet attack, 73, 88
ethanol, 105–6, 107
euro currency, 129–32, 253, 260–61
European Central Bank (ECB), 129–30, 131, 258
European Union (EU), 127–32, 260–61, 285, 310n
evolution, 137–38
exotic particles, 144–60, 310–11n
extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB), 205, 207
extinction-level events, 62–63
extra dimensions, 157–58
extrasociety dilemma, 204–5
extreme events, 8–9, 13, 34–35, 62–63, 304n
extreme impact of X-events, 5, 38, 39
extreme weather, 33, 104, 107
Facebook, 11–12, 82, 225
Fackler, Martin, 267
Faraday cages, 120
fat-tailed distributions, 35–37, 35n
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), 25–26
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), 254–55
Federal Reserve, 38, 106, 124, 255–56, 257, 263–64
Fefferman, Nina, 208–10
Ferguson, Niall, 137–40, 310n
Fermi, Enrico, 146
financial crisis of 2007–2008, 37–38, 43, 106, 123–24, 255–61, 289–90, 295, 315n. See also global financial crisis
financial markets: emergent aspect, 48; history of, 254–57; Internet dependence, 78–79; role of trust, 254, 258–59
financial regulations, 255–56, 257, 291
Financial Stability Oversight Board, 289
first law of robotics, 244–45, 314n
Florida, presidential election of 2000, 218
flu (influenza), 30, 202–3. See also Spanish flu outbreak of 1918
fluctuations, increasing rate of, 278
flux compression generator (FCG), 112–13, 116, 121
food industrialization, 93, 97
food prices, 92, 102–6, 308n
food-supply system. See global food-supply system
food web, Peter Lake experiment, 276–77
football betting, 281–82
Forbidden Planet (movie), 236, 243–44
forecasting models, 36–37, 280–87
“forecasting” of X-events, 39–41, 54
foreclosures, 259
Frederick, Ivan, II, 292
Friedman, Thomas, 122, 124
Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, 12–13, 256
Galviso, Mary Ann, 102–3
game theory, 163–64, 311n
genetic engineering, 237
genetic modification of crop seed, 101
Georgia (country), Internet attack, 88
Germany, 130–31, 218–19
Giannini, Ruggero, 181
Gibbons, Ann, 21
Gibson, William, 96
Gladwell, Malcolm, 200–201, 313n
Glass-Steagall Act, 257
Global Business Network (GBN), 135–37
global catastrophes, overview, 62–63
global disasters, overview, 62–63
global financial crisis, 123–24, 251–69, 315–16n; adding it all up, 269; black swans and, 37–38; deflation and, 262–69; economic defenses against, 254–56; potential scenarios, 251–53, 259–60; role of trust, 254, 258–59
global food-supply system, 92–108, 307n; adding it all up, 107–8; death of bees, 98–102; decline in supply, 102–6; plant viruses, 94–98; seed banks, 97–98, 102; “solution” to food crisis, 106–8
globalization, 46, 122–43, 309n; adding it all up, 140–43; caterpillar vs. butterfly, 125–27; decline and fall of European Union, 127–32; empire transitions, 137–40; GBN scenarios, 135–37; Proteus scenarios, 132–35, 136–37; Red Queen hypothesis, 49–50
global pandemics. See pandemics
global warming, 274–75; food supply and, 104, 107, 308n; Internet data centers and, 82; nuclear exchange and, 169–70; water supply and, 227
Glos, Michael, 219
GNR problem, 237–39, 247
Gödel, Kurt, 53, 54
gold, 131, 141, 253
Goldilocks Principle, 51–53
Google, 11–12, 82
Gorbachev, Mikhail, 125
Gore, Al, 55, 192
Gould, Stephen J., 137–38
gray goo scenario, 32, 63, 238, 314n
Great Depression, 142, 258, 264, 315n
Great Northeast Blackout of 1965, 213–15, 225
Great Recession of 2007–2008, 13–14, 141–43, 255–61, 315n
Greece, 27, 56, 128, 253, 265
greenhouse gases, 226
Greenspan, Alan, 124, 258
Gumede, William Mervin, 217
hackers, 81, 85–89
Haiti earthquake of 2010, 28
Hanson, Jason, 141
hardware failures, 81–85
Hawking, Stephen, 152, 154, 311n
Hawtin, Geoff, 98
Healing, Richard, 288
health care system, and Internet dependence, 79–80
“hedge,” 290
hedge funds, 257, 258
hedger’s dilemma, 294–97
Heffernan, Margaret, 291–93, 317n
Hempsell, C. M., 62–63, 306n
Hengchun earthquake of 2006, 83
H5N1 virus, 203, 207–8
Higgs, Peter, 147–48, 310n
Higgs boson, 147–48, 155
high-amplitude fluctuations, 278–79
Hiroshima, 20, 170
historical processes, theories of, 137–40
Hochberg, Steven, 261–62
Homeland Security Department, US, 219
home ownership, 142
Homer-Dixon, Thomas, 45, 303n
housing market, 259
Hubbert, M. King, 182–83, 312n
human brain vs. computer, 240–43
human-caused X-events, overview, 22–32
hurricanes, 39, 296
Hurricane Houston, 188–89
Hurricane Irene, 19
Hurricane Katrina, 7, 19, 34, 39, 294–95
Hut, Piet, 159
hyperinflation, 264–65
ice-nine, 31, 32, 145, 156
Ikle, Fred, 165
Immersion, Ingestion, and Inhalation (III) attacks, 176
impact of X-event, 7–9
impact time, 8–9, 63, 304n
income distribution in US, 279–80
income inequality, 143, 293–94
incompleteness, 53–54
Indiviglio, Daniel, 259–60
information overload, 292
intelligent agents, in agent-based simulations, 283–84
intelligent machines, 239–46
interest rates, 263–64, 268
International Monetary Fund (IMF), 252, 258
Internet: dependence on, 77–80; origin of, 70–71; size of, 76–77
Internet addresses, 68–71, 76
Internet failure, 68–91, 306n; adding it all up, 89–91; deliberate attacks, 81, 85–89; examples of, 71–76; systemic crashes, 80–85
Internet Protocol (IP), 68–71, 75, 87–89
intrasociety dilemma, 204–5
Iran, 116, 117; nuclear program, 86–87, 172–73, 177, 187–90; oil reserves, 185; Stuxnet virus, 86–87, 307n
Iraq, 187; oil reserves, 185
Iraq war, 4, 98, 185
Ireland, 265
I, Robot (movie), 245
iRobot, Inc., 243
irrational exuberance, 37, 300
isolationism, US, 134–35
Israel, 172–73, 174, 175, 177, 190, 227
Italy strike of 2007, 180–82
Jaffe, Robert, 159
Japan: deflationary depression, 266–68, 316n; earthquake and tsunami of 2011, 8, 12–13, 256, 297–98
Joy, Bill, 239, 315n
just in time (JIT), 181
Kahn, Herman, 163, 311n
Kaminsky, Dan, 68–70, 75, 87–89, 306n
Keeler, William Henry (“Wee Willie”), 7
Kelly, Walt, 302
Kennedy, John F., Jr., 154
Kennedy, Paul, 12, 137
Khodorkovsky, Mikhail, 126
Kitty Hawk, USS, 165
Koo, Richard, 267, 316n
Kopp, Carlo, 113
Krakatoa eruption of 1883, 20–21, 61
Krioukov, Dmitri, 81
Krugman, Paul, 258–59, 315n
Kubrick, Stanley, 163
Kurzweil, Ray, 235–37, 248–49
Kuwait, 185, 187–88
Langmuir, Irving, 31
Large Hadron Collider (LHC), 147–51, 155–59, 311n
law of accelerating returns, 237, 241, 249
law of requisite complexity, 12, 304n
law of requisite variety, 56, 304n
Law of the Few, 200–201
laws of robotics, 244–45, 314n
Lehman Brothers, 38, 43
LePore, Theresa, 55
Libya, 9–13
Lights Out (Makansi), 222, 224
Limited Test Ban Treaty (LTBT), 167
limited war, 172–73, 177–78
liquefied natural gas (LNG), 224, 226
liquidity trap, 264
Little Ice Age, 170
Litvinenko, Alexander, 176
Lloyd, Seth, 47–48, 235
localization, 125, 128
Loescher, Michael, 132, 133
Lofgren, Eric, 208–10
Lokela, Mabako, 199
Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989, 296
“long tail” concept, 36
Lorenz, Ed, 54–55
Los Alamos National Laboratory, 145–46
Lucas, Robert, 255, 315n
McCarthy, Cormac, 115
McIlhenny’s Tabasco Sauce, 50–51
MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction), 116–17, 164–65, 177, 311n
magnetic monopoles, 156
magneto-hydrodynamic device (MHD), 112–13, 116, 121
Maiello, Michael, 124
Makansi, Jason, 222, 224, 313n
malicious Internet attacks, 85–89
malware, 88–89, 306n
Manhattan Project, 145–46
Manning, Peyton, 284
manufacturing, 49–50
Mariner 9, 168
Marshall Plan, 9
Marx, Karl, 294
mathematical tools for anticipation, 278–80, 316n
Matrix, The (movie), 221–22
Matsuda, Hisakazu, 267
Mbeki, Thabo, 217–18
Mead, Carver, 233–34
Medvedev, Dmitri, 126
Merton, Robert, 37
Microsoft Windows, 25, 42–43
Mikko, Madis, 73
Militant Shangri-La scenario, 133
mini (micro) black holes, 149–52, 157–58
Minority Report (movie), 135
Mirkovic, Jelena, 88
Monod, Jacques, 40
Moore, Gordon, 233–35
Moore’s law, 233–35, 237, 249
moral hazard, 255
Morgenstern, Oskar, 163–64
mousepox, 30
Mubarak, Hosni, 54, 74–75, 86
multitasking, 292
Murder in the Cathedral (Eliot), 257–58
Murphy’s law, 235
nanobots, 32
nanotechnology, 31–32, 238
Nash, Jordan, 149
natural disasters, overview, 20–22
Navy, US, 165, 166
near-earth object (NEO), 21
Neuromancer (Gibson), 96
New York City blackout of 1977, 212–13, 215
New York power-grid collapse of 2003, 215–16
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), 252
Nezami, Nashriyeh-e Siasi, 118
“nice” X-events, 9
Nikkei Stock Index, 266
Nineteen Eighty-Four (Orwell), 96
Nishioka, Junko, 268
No Free Lunch, 50–51, 301
normal probability distribution, 34–37, 35n
normal regime, 14–15
North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), 215, 216
North Korea, 115, 117, 176
nuclear landscape, 161–79, 311n; adding it all up, 178–79; Cold War mentality, 161–66; damage-limitation ideas, 176–77; EMP and, 109–10, 112, 115, 117; history of technology, 145–46, 163–66; Iran program, 86–87, 172–73, 177, 187–90; “limited” nuclear war scenarios, 172–76; power grid vulnerabilities and, 224
nuclear terrorism, 23, 115–17, 162–63, 175–76; potential scenarios, 171–72, 175–76, 188–89, 311–12n
nuclear winter, 166–70, 311n
Occupy Wall Street, 28–29
oil supplies, 180–94, 312n; adding it all up, 191–94; global food supply and, 104; Italy strike of 2007, 180–82; peak oil question, 182–86, 191, 192–93; possible scenarios, 186–91
On Thermonuclear War (Kahn), 163, 311n
Oppenheimer, J. Robert, 145–46
optical fiber cables, 83
ordinary and the surprising, 4–5
Orwell, George, 96
outsourcing energy sources, 224
Owens, R. C., 284
Ozzie, Ray, 42
Pakistan, 170, 173, 175
pandemics, 28, 195–211, 312–13n; adding it all up, 210–11; early-warning signs, 202–3; personal freedoms vs. public health, 203–6; short list of, 197–98; terminology, 197; three network principles, 199–202; three ways to stop, 207–8; virtual world simulation, 208–10
parallel vs. serial, 242
particle accelerators, 146–59, 310n
peak oil, 182–86, 191, 192–93, 312n
Persian Gulf, 186, 187–91
Pesek, William, 297–98
pesticides, 93, 100–101
Peter Lake experiment, 276–78
phosphorus, 92
physics, 144–60
phytophthora ramorum (PR) fungus, 94–95, 97, 102
Plague, The (Camus), 195–97, 312n
Plague of Justinian, 197–98
Planck, Max, 150
plant viruses, 94–98
Pollack, James B., 168–70
pollution, 226
population growth, and global food supply, 105, 106
Portugal, 265
poverty, 92, 124–25
power consumption, Internet, 82–83
power grid failures. See electric power grid failures
Power of Context, 201
preemptive nuclear strikes, 174–75
presidential election of 2000, 55
Pringle, David, 95–96
probability curve, 34–37, 35n
process innovation, 50–51
product diversification, 51
Project Proteus, 132–35, 310n
Project Starfish Prime, 111–12, 118
punctuated equilibrium, 137–38
Putin, Vladimir, 125–27, 309n
quantum vacuum collapse, 156–57
quarantine, 201, 204, 209–10
quarks, 151, 156
Rajaratnam, Raj, 258
rarity of X-events, 13, 38–39
Reagan, Ronald, 177
Red Capitalism (Walter and Howie), 52
Red Queen Hypothesis, 49–50
redundancy, 46, 301
Rees, Martin, 159, 303n
regional nuclear attacks, 175
Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC), 153–55
Replogle, John, 100
resilience, 300–301
retail commerce, and Internet dependence, 79
retaliatory nuclear strikes, 175
Richardson, Bill, 224, 226
Road, The (McCarthy), 115
Robby, the Robot, 243–44
robotics, 238, 244–46, 314n
Roman Empire, 12, 44, 54, 139
Roomba, 243
router scalability, 84–85, 306–7n
runaway black holes, 156
Rushlo, Ben, 87–88
Russia, 88, 125–27, 140–41, 173
Sagan, Carl, 168–70
Samuelson, Robert, 258–59
San Diego blackout of 2011, 220–21
SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), 61, 189, 200, 206
Saudi Arabia, 92, 104, 185, 187–88
Saul, John Ralston, 124–25, 309n
scale-free network, 225
Schneider, Stephen H., 169–70
Schoch-Spana, Monica, 295–96
Scholes, Myron, 37
Schuchard, Max, 84–85, 307n
Schumpeter, Joseph, 269
Schwartz, Peter, 135–37
Science Fiction: The 100 Best Novels (Pringle, ed.), 95–96
Scud missiles, 115–16
Seabright, Paul, 254–55, 315n
second law of robotics, 244–45, 314n
seed banks, 97–98, 102
Sen, Amartya, 105
serial vs. parallel, 242
Shell Oil, 182
Silent Spring (Carson), 100
Singularity, 235–36, 237, 247–50, 314n
Singularity Is Near (Kurzweil), 235–37, 248–49
smallpox, 30, 197
Smith, Gary, 110
smoking, 203–4
social networking, 11–12
software failures, 81–85
soil erosion, 104, 106
Somalia, 228
South Africa, 217–18
Southwest blackout of 2011, 220–21
Soviet Union, 125–26, 136, 139, 161–66. See also Russia
Space Defense Initiative (SDI), 177
space defense systems, 177
Spain, 131, 265
Spanish flu outbreak of 1918, 30, 62, 198
Spears, Tara, 149
speculative bubbles, 259, 263, 266
Spengler, Oswald, 137
Spielberg, Steven, 135
Standard Model, 147–48, 160
Stickiness Factor, 201
Stiglitz, Joseph, 293–94, 317n
stock market, 36–37
Stoltenberg, Jens, 97
storage of electricity, 225
stories explaining X-events, 39
Strait of Hormuz, 187–88
strangelets, 150–51, 156, 159
Strategic Petroleum Reserve, 190
string theory, 148–50
Strock, Carl, 34–35, 305n
Strogatz, Stephen, 6, 14
Stuxnet virus, 86–87, 307n
subsistence diets, 105
Suez Canal, 83
Sumatra eruption of 1883, 20–21, 61
Sun Tsu-yun, 117–18
superbugs, 206
superspreaders, 200–201
superstring theory, 149–50
supersymmetry, 149–50
survivalism, 141, 244
sustainability, 15, 46, 274
Svalbard Global Seed Vault, 97–98, 102
Sweden, 71–72
Syria, 9, 12, 174
systemic Internet crashes, 80–85
systemic traits, 48–49
Szekely, Louis (“Louis CK”), 77
Tainter, Joseph, 44, 45–46, 49, 305n
Taiwan earthquake of 2006, 83
Takemori, Shumpei, 267–68
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 37–40, 54, 305n
Tamiflu, 207–8
taxes (tax policy), 56, 143, 260, 265
technology, 233–50; GNR problem, 237–39, 247; human brain vs. computer, 240–43; Moore’s law, 233–35, 237; Singularity, 235–36, 247–50
Teller, Edward, 145–46
Tesla, Nikola, 222–23
Tevatron, 149, 154
Texas City Refinery explosion of 2005, 292
Texas drought of 2011, 228
Thailand floods of 2011, 294–95
theory of everything (TOE), 147
thermodynamics, 8, 245
third law of robotics, 244–45, 314n
Thomas, Tom, 132, 133
Thompson, Derek, 259–60
Three Mile Island accident, 290
Through the Looking Glass (Carroll), 49
timescale, 66
Tipping Point, The (Gladwell), 200–201, 313n
Toba eruption, 20–21, 304n
Toon, O. Brian, 168–70
total impact, 8–9
Toynbee, Arnold, 137
transportation system, and Internet dependence, 80
Treasury Department, US, 87, 251, 253, 260
Trinity (nuclear test), 145–46
trust, in financial system, 254, 258–59
tuberculosis, 203, 205
Tunisia, 27, 54, 129
Turco, Richard, 168–70
Turing, Alan, 239
Turing test, 239–40
Twitter, 11–12, 82, 88
typhoid fever, 204
Typhoid Mary (Mary Mallon), 204–5
Ugly Swan Paradox, 298
Ulam, Stan, 236
undecidability, 53–54
underground bunkers, 140–41
unemployment, 142–43, 259
unfolding time, 8–9, 63, 304n
United Arab Emirates, 185, 187
United Nations (UN), 136, 229
Until the End of the World (movie), 109–10
Upside of Down, The (Homer-Dixon), 45
vaccinations, 207
Vanishing of the Bees (movie), 98–99
Van Valen, Leigh, 49
“variety,” 56
varroa mites, 101
Venezuela, 188–90
Viagra, 11
Vickers, Damon, 251–52, 253
Vinge, Vernor, 235–37, 247–48, 314n
virtual water, 230, 314n
viruses: bees, 101; Internet, 88–89; plant, 94–98
Volkova, Lyubov, 126, 127
Vonnegut, Kurt, 31, 32, 145, 156
Von Neumann, John, 163–64, 236
Wagner, Walter, 154, 155–57
Waldcock, Bill, 288
Wall Street Crash of 1929, 266
Walter, Carl E., 52
water supply, 104, 106, 227–32, 313–14n
Watts, Duncan, 202
weather forecasting, 5, 7, 169
Weldon, Curt, 110
Wenders, Wim, 109–10
Westinghouse, George, 223
wheat rust, 93
white dove, 40–41
Wilczek, Frank, 154, 310n
“willful blindness,” 291–92, 317n
Wolfe, Nathan, 198–99, 312–13n
Wood, Lowell, 110, 118
World Health Organization (WHO), 202, 205
World Is Flat, The (Friedman), 122, 124
World of Warcraft, 208–10, 313n
worms, Internet, 88–89
X-events regime, 14–15
X-risk, 299–301
Yankee Going Home scenario, 134–35
Yellowstone National Park, 64
Yeltsin, Boris, 125–26
zeroth law, 245