11
The best way to survive mass victim attacks is to prevent them from occurring. The largest successes of all have been when such attacks were stopped prior to being carried out. See Something, Say Something has worked to stop attacks that could have killed numerous innocent victims. Behavior does not occur in a vacuum. There are always indicators prior to a mass victim attack. There are antecedent events and situations encountered by a would-be attacker that serve to fuel the desire and drive of a would-be attacker. Others may encounter the same events and situations but respond in a very different and nonviolent manner.
Attacks require preparation, thought, and the decision to attack mass victims. It is not just about the attack itself. There are events and situations that occur that serve as antecedents to an attacker that serve to fuel the drive to attack. It is possible that a single behavior or statement may not be as disturbing as observing a series of behaviors or statements that appear to be getting worse.
Successful mass victim attacks are the result of many actions to prepare for an attack that either were not observed by others or not acted on. We have all seen on television or have read in the media the interviews of neighbors, friends, or family members after a mass victim attack. For the most part, preparation and concern were present but not reported. Just as important, when reports are actually made, officials need to investigate and act on the concerns that are being relayed. I would change See Something, Say Something to: See Something, Say Something, Do Something.
Prior to the 9/11 attack, the worst attack on U.S. soil, killing almost 3,000 people, the U.S. government knew of the threat for years. It had been reported that Osama bin Laden had ordered his followers to take pilot training in the United States and in other countries. There were mixed reasons given for this training, but all involved hijacking, and several included intelligence that airliners would be used to crash into structures.1, 2, 3 Although investigation was underway, it did not result in preventative action prior to the 9/11 attack.
Some mass victim attackers have sought help. James Holmes, the Aurora, Colorado, Century 16 movie theatre attacker who killed 12 and injured 70, had sought psychiatric treatment. He had been brought to the attention of mental health services at the University of Colorado in Denver. His psychiatrist, Dr. Lynne Fenton, during Holmes’s trial, indicated that Holmes had mentioned killing people several times a day and the thoughts were getting worse over time.
Although Holmes was acquiring weapons and checking out movie theatres, Dr. Fenton mentioned she could not do anything and place him in psychiatric hold because he had not mentioned specifics of a target. He had never mentioned suicide. His ex-girlfriend recounted how she had received messages from Holmes that he wanted to kill people. Just hours before the attack, Holmes mailed a notebook to his psychiatrist detailing his plans for the attack. Some victims’ families are suing Dr. Fenton and the university for failure to intervene.4
Aaron Alexis, the Washington, D.C., Navy Yard attacker who killed 12 people and injured three (chapter 10), had brought himself to the attention of police a month before the incident. He self-reported that people were talking to him by microwaves through the floors and walls and were following him. There were clear indications of mental illness that should have been of concern. In some cases, the attacker himself recognized there was a problem and sought help.
Sometimes, it is just too late. Charles Whitman who killed 16 at the University of Texas, Austin, attack, and who was killed by a police officer, had left a diary requesting that his brain be checked after death. This was done, and he had a brain tumor that could have contributed to his worsening mental health condition. We need to ensure that those individuals who have mixed feelings about the thoughts that are driving them to a potential attack know how to seek mental health services and that mental health services intervene when necessary. The best person to prevent an attack is the attacker himself.
Prevention means acting on indicators, behaviors, thoughts, situations, and any other potential precursors that precede an attack. Those who are in the best position to see something threatening include family, friends, acquaintances, teachers, and neighbors. Because preparation for an attack could take months to years, there are often multiple occasions to observe behavior that may be cause for concern. As an example, Adam Lanza, the Sandy Hook Elementary School killer, exhibited numerous signs that should have been reported by his mother. This could have prevented her from being killed, as well as the 20 children and six adults he shot to death (chapter 2).
Lanza’s mother was aware of the level of disturbance of her son and had confided the issues to friends. His school work was accompanied by violent depictions and disturbing accounts of death and killings. When his mother searched his room, she found drawings of mutilated children and violent deaths drawn by him as his disturbance became worse.5 Lanza eventually totally withdrew into a world of violent thoughts and target practice with the weapons purchased by his mother.
THE ROLES OF ANTECEDENTS AND BEHAVIORS
Over the past decades, I have led the development of scores of applications to predict threat. Having invented Automated Behavior Analysis (AuBA), the underlying approach is useful for anticipating threat and knowing what to observe that could be an indication of attacks without the automation tools.6 AuBA, based on the foundations of applied behavior analysis, a field in psychology, stresses that behavior does not stand alone. There are antecedents (A) that precede behavior (B) and the behavior has consequences (C). Antecedents and consequences have profound effects on the behavior in question.
My definitions as related to mass victim attacks are as follows:
Antecedent
An antecedent is any event or situation that precedes a behavior that is logically associated with multiple occurrences of that behavior over time.
Behavior
The behavior is the specific act of an individual, group, or country that follows antecedents.
Consequence
The consequence is the effect of the behavior when it occurs. If the consequence is beneficial to the actor, then the behavior is more likely to occur when the antecedents or highly similar antecedents are present in the future.
The method I have used for prediction is to identify antecedents of past attacks that repeat and are associated with consequences that are beneficial to the attacker from the attacker’s perspective. Then, monitor for these antecedents in the future. If a constellation of antecedents occur that were associated with past attacks or are highly similar, the probability that an attack will follow is increased.
Antecedents associated with past mass victim attacks can include such things as time of day, specifics of the location (e.g., nightclub, sporting event, house of worship, statements made, parades, shopping specials, school opening, etc.), or U.S. government actions against a favored group, among many others. These are events and situations that “attract” attacks based on the motivators of potential mass victim attackers. For example, the objective of a mass victim attack is to kill as many people as possible in the shortest amount of time. In the case of the Pulse nightclub attack in Orlando, Omar Mateen attacked late in the evening when the maximum number of people was partying. Four o’clock in the afternoon would not have been a good time because far fewer customers would be present.
For any location, the antecedents of interest can be determined prior to attack. What is the maximum crowd time of a public place? Are there few exits available? Is security absent? When is security not available? Business owners, security, and law enforcement need to understand the vulnerabilities of any locations surveyed. Vulnerabilities can be readily identified and rectified to make a location more secure. For example, a location may only have one entrance/exit, no windows, and no visible security, among other weaknesses.
Although vulnerabilities and how to strengthen locations is not the topic of this book, it should be said that it is not difficult to make locations more secure. Obvious changes could convince an attacker to go elsewhere, much like the obvious presence of an alarm system/cameras at a home can persuade a burglar to move on to another location.
Why are known antecedents valuable? Because when they occur in the future, we know we should be more careful, increase security, and ramp up vigilance and situational awareness. As one important example, we know that an attacker seeks maximum crowd density for his attack. The actual presence of the crowd may be more important that the event itself. For self-radicalized terrorists such as brothers Dzhokhar and Tamerlan Tsarnaev, their interest was not likely the marathon but a nearby gathering of a large crowd with a symbolic target that was an all-American activity. This means that such events as the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade, which was listed by ISIS as a target in 2017, and other public events are likely targets. They are symbolic and attract large crowds.
Antecedents set the stage for an imminent attack while actual attacker behaviors prior to an attack are present as preparation. Security and law enforcement, as well as everyone else, should be aware of both. If we observe a neighbor renting a moving truck that is parked in front of the house for a week and not used, this is enough to report to law enforcement, especially if accompanied by any other suspicious behavior. On October 31, 2017, 29-year-old Sayfullo Saipov, drove a rental truck from Home Depot down a bike path near the World Trade Center site, killing eight, before crashing into a bus and exiting. He was captured after being shot by a police officer (chapter 9).
The following tables (11.1 and 11.2) are provided as examples of two attacks showing antecedents versus preparation behaviors. The attacks are shown because they were very different approaches to killing multiple people.
Table 11.1 shows a breakdown of antecedents and preparation behaviors for the Boston Marathon attack. This type of analysis can be completed across all mass victim attacks and leads to characteristics included in this book. As can be seen, the fact that a symbolic, all-American event such as the Boston Marathon was scheduled to occur near the Tsarnaev brothers’ residence near Boston made it a logical anti-U.S. target of convenience. In addition, the large crowds, especially near the finish line, added to the attractiveness of the target, including the presence of innocent victims. As antecedents that drove motive, the Tsarnaev brothers were upset with U.S. actions in Afghanistan and Iraq that resulted in deaths of Muslims.
Bombings are indiscriminate, and explosives can be detonated once the attacker has left the scene of bomb placement. This is why reporting unattended packages is essential, especially if at any event or situation where there is a crowd. The pressure cooker bombs were straight out of the Al Qaeda magazine available on the Internet. The timing of the detonations was based on the brothers successfully leaving the scene after planting the backpacks that hid the loaded bombs.
Table 11.2 shows the breakdown of antecedents and behaviors associated with the mentally disturbed 26-year-old Devin Kelley’s semi-automatic rifle attack on the First Baptist Church in Sutherland Springs, Texas (chapter 8). Antecedents for target selection included the church being local to him and the strong, threatening conflict with his ex-wife’s family. The grandmother-in-law was present during the attack and was killed. The remainder of the family did not attend that day. Kelley had threatened the family repeatedly. Preparation included purchasing weapons and ammunition.
Attack timing was based on Sunday morning service time, which is the service of maximum attendance at small churches. My father, a Christian pastor, always worked to obtain maximum attendance at Sunday morning services.
It is important to note that officials can be lacking in their responsibility to report. Kelley’s violent behavior was well known, even when he was in the air force. He received one year in jail for crushing his young stepson’s skull and repeatedly beating his wife, and there were other crimes and serious threats. The result was a “bad conduct” discharge from the U.S. Air Force, yet the service did not report the conviction to the FBI. Such a report would have prevented Kelley from acquiring the firearms he openly purchased to commit the church massacre—an unfortunate breakdown of responsibility.
Targets for mass victim attacks are not random. Target selection is basically antecedent based. Given the common journalistic questions—who what, where, when, why, and how—the items are divided among antecedents and behavior. Who and where are antecedent based. A potential attacker must determine the target (who) and the location of the attack (where). Based on the motivations of the potential attacker, these are important considerations. Who may be innocent victims at a symbolic location. Innocent victims are more horrifying, and location is to amplify fear.
How and what are more method-based and tend to be associated with preparation behaviors. What type of attack? We have observed vehicle rundowns, stabbings, shootings, and bombings, as well as hybrids. Given what type of attack, how will it occur? When is obviously the timing of the attack itself. When is antecedent based as well. What are common attack antecedents? The time for maximum density of targets present is key.
The type of victims may be very important. In hate/bias attacks, the consideration is when the maximum density of hated targets will be present in one place. If workplace motivated, it is work hours. If a house of worship, it is worship time. If international, domestic, or self-radicalized terrorism, it is when a crowd is assembled at the target location. Mass victim attacks care much less about structure damage—the purpose is to kill people of all ages and physical capability literally ranging from the unborn and infants to the elderly. All are fair game. In most cases, these characteristics become the why.
It is important to realize that we could observe antecedents as well as actual threatening behaviors. We should be on the lookout for antecedents that lead to attacks, as well as the behaviors required to prepare for an attack.
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM
Antecedents
•Increased U.S. efforts to counter Al Qaeda, ISIS, fringe elements, Taliban, or other known international adversaries
•Economic progress
•Recent military enhancements on global basis
•Anti-international terrorism rhetoric from U.S. leadership
Behaviors of Concern
•Anti-U.S. rhetoric
•Calls for attack
•Suggestions of targets
•Weapons of mass destruction preparation (bomb construction, pilot training)
•Practice with weapons
•Acquisition of guns, ammunition, and clips, with behavior not consistent with the activity
SELF-RADICALIZED TERRORISM
Antecedents
•U.S. efforts to identify self-radicalized (SR) elements in the U.S.
•U.S. efforts to decrease international terrorism influence
•U.S. provocative statements against radical Islam
•Anti-radical Islam behavior/statements among private groups
Behaviors of Concern
•U.S.-based person(s) preoccupied with anti-U.S. radical Islamic social media, blogs, or websites
•Communication with foreign international terrorism contacts
•Bomb preparation
•Rental of large vehicles without apparent use
•Acquiring blade weapons (e.g., knives, machetes, axes)
•Acquiring guns, particularly semi-automatic rifles and pistols
•Excessive home target practice
DOMESTIC TERRORISM
Antecedents
•U.S.-based law enforcement or military efforts directed against U.S. persons opposed to government activities or actions
Behaviors of Concern
•Expressed disgruntlement in the work setting
•Threats made to coworkers
•Acquiring bomb-making supplies (e.g., ammonium nitrate fertilizer, military-grade explosives)
•Acquiring homemade materials for bombs (e.g., pressure cookers, timers, pipes)
•Acquiring guns, ammunition, and clips, with behavior not consistent with the activity
HATE/BIAS
Antecedents
•Location of the hated group becomes apparent, such as a church that contains only member of the hated group (e.g., [in past attacks] African Americans, Sikhs, Jews)
•Time of hated-group gatherings
Behaviors of Concern
•Acquiring weapons, primarily semi-automatic weapons
•Weapons practice
•Wearing hate clothing (e.g., presence of swastikas, anti-group clothing statements/images)
•Stalking protests
•Wearing protective gear and carrying weapons at protests
•Preoccupation with harsh, anti-group bias or hate rhetoric in public or on blogs, websites, or other forms of social media (e.g., white supremacy, anti-religious, anti-race, anti-gender)
MENTAL HEALTH ISSUES
Antecedents and Behaviors of Concern
Antecedents to those suffering from mental health issues may be very different than for other, more rational mass victim attackers such as international terrorists, domestic terrorists, self-radicalized terrorists, and those driven by hate/bias. We certainly disagree with the motivators that drive these attackers, but, given their perceptions, they are easier to understand. Those suffering from mental health issues may respond to antecedents that are self-generated based on the level of disturbance they may be experiencing. In reality, antecedents may be internal and be fantasized and imagined.
Those suffering from mental health issues may hear voices, hallucinate events, situations, and actions that did not occur, or see events and behaviors that actually occurred in a much different way than actually happened (illusions). We cannot know what is going on in the heads of those suffering, but it may be obvious they are seeing and hearing things that are simply not there.
We may observe the affected person talking to himself or others who are not there, acting in such a way that simply is not appropriate for the situation, or reacting in strange ways to normal events. We must infer that the person is suffering, and use what is said and done as indicators that he is responding to events that are not based in reality. This can be a real concern if threatening statements or behaviors are being made in response to what they believe they are seeing and hearing.
•The person makes threatening statements or reacts to events that did not happen.
•The person, to us, is speaking nonsense, is angry, and has weapons (e.g., guns) or attempts to acquire weapons.
•The person makes threats toward others that are not based on reality.
•The person threatens suicide.
WHAT SHOULD BE OF CONCERN TO REPORT?
There are multiple types of people who can report when they see something of concern. There is self-reporting, family, friends, neighbors, employees, service people at work, and strangers. All are slightly different and afford different opportunities where one may see something of concern. These times range from many years with a family member to perhaps just a few seconds for a stranger or bystander. But first, what might you see that should raise concern to the point that it should be reported? In other words, when should you “say something”?
Any behavior that reveals:
•Special and repeated interest in violent, dangerous actions of others whereby innocent victims were stabbed, shot, bombed, or run down by a vehicle
•Interest includes collecting past news articles and other material focusing on mass victim attacks, killings, or any gruesome attacks,
•Frequenting anti-U.S. or racial/hate/bias websites or social media
•Posting anti-U.S. or racial/hate/bias content
•Writing a journal or manifesto with anti-U.S. or hate/bias content
•Repeated instances of violent or threatening behavior
•Ongoing criminal activity
•Appearance of purchasing guns and ammunition or blade weapons (knives, machetes, hatchets) and any practice with weapons combined with threatening behavior or actions
•Renting a truck that sits for days or weeks without obvious use
•Any appearance of acquiring or using bomb materials or explosives, including black powder, ammonium nitrate fertilizer, dynamite, or weapons-grade explosives, especially combined with threatening behavior or actions
•Any verbal or written stated plans or threats to hurt or kill others
•An obvious obsession with killing others
•Person is speaking nonsense and making threatening statements against a specific group that are not based on reality
•Suicide statements combined with threatening behavior, statements, or demeanor
SEE SOMETHING, SAY NOTHING?
In my review of past mass victim attacks, it was rare to review an attack where unusual behavior of concern was not witnessed by someone prior to an attack—almost always discovered on interview after the fact. It is clear that when attacks have been prevented, behaviors of concern were noted, leading to prevention and apprehension. This underscores a basic question, if unusual, threatening behaviors of concern combined with antecedents that force a concern, why don’t those who see something, say something? Why not report?
See something, say something does not mean to say something to a friend, colleague, or family member. Say something means to report it to the proper authorities so that intervention will be be forthcoming. If it looks like preparation for an attack, call law enforcement. If it looks like an attack is ready to happen, call 911. Although I have not seen hard data to answer why more frequent reporting does not occur, I believe it is fair to say that most non-reporters fear revenge, retribution, discovery, or simply being disliked by the potential attacker if a family member. This creates see something, say nothing.
In private conversations, when I ask people if they believe they can make an anonymous phone call to tip off law enforcement, the answer is more often no. In these days of national security surveillance, wiretapping, reverse-look ups (available capabilities to obtain name and address from a phone number), and known lack of security on cell phones and social media, there is a basic distrust that makes anonymity appear to be elusive, at best. While I believe full information provided is the best, there are times when one would prefer to be anonymous. It is far better to be anonymous than to say nothing ! You can make an anonymous call to law enforcement ! This is how to ensure anonymity:
•There is a code for most countries that if dialed before you dial the number you want to call can block your number from being seen by the person called. For example, in the United States, if you dial *67 and then the number you want to call, including the “1” if long distance, your number will be blocked and the recipient will be unable to see your number. There are variations across countries. Rather than listing codes here that could change for any specific country, you can find this code for any specific country by searching on the Internet for “codes to block a phone number from being seen when making a call” or a variation of this search.
•There is an increasing number of law enforcement anonymous-tip telephone lines and websites. As one example, We Tip (https://wetip.com/submit-anonymous-tip-2) and anonymous telephone number (1-800-78-CRIME or 1-800-782-7463) are national tip lines.
•For some types of phone, you can go into settings and disable the feature that shows your phone number when you call. However, I recommend finding the specific code for your country and use it on a call-by-call basis.
•Don’t use your phone—call from a public phone. Yes, they still exist. Use a hotel pay phone and cash only.
•Purchase a cheap disposable phone, or burner phone as they are called, make your call, and then dispose of the phone. Both can be prepaid with cash, and the number is for temporary use only. Disposables may be used a little longer than burner phones, with the latter purchased typically for a one-time call and then tossed along with the number.
•If not an emergency, type it, print it, and mail it to local law enforcement. Leave off the return address and don’t sign it.
•Be aware that anonymous tips may not be taken as seriously as those with identification, but they do matter. If anonymous, be specific about what the concern is, and if the actions/behaviors are getting worse.
WHO IS REPORTED?
Who is reported and who is doing the reporting can make a difference. If the person heading down the path of violent behavior is a son or daughter, it may be more difficult to report than if the person is an unknown neighbor. This is why anonymous reporting must be an option. An anonymous call or anonymous tip on an anonymous law enforcement website, could literally save the life of the person heading for an attack, as well as the lives of many potential innocent victims. It could also save the potential attacker from a life in prison. A family member may be much more willing to provide an anonymous tip, and this should be respected by local and federal law enforcement.
SELF-REPORTING
Some mass victim attackers have attempted to proclaim their plans to kill others prior to the attack. The reasons are mixed and can range from bragging to a need to be stopped of an obsession that cannot be controlled and a compulsion to kill many people. For the braggart, it is to gain respect from like-minded individuals in his circle of friends or to gain the attention of an organized group such as international terrorists. The person suffering from severe mental health issues may very well complete the act, although reluctant and wanting to be stopped. I have gone by the assumption in my career that if it doesn’t make sense at any level, then mental health issues are likely at play.
The following are some guidelines for anyone wanting intervention from carrying out a vicious act. If you are that person, follow the advice. If you know someone, copy the page and leave it for them anonymously. If an attack appears imminent, then call 911, and if in the planning stages, contact local law enforcement, even if trying to get the person to self-report.
•If you are experiencing feelings of being driven beyond self-control, seek help at a local mental health clinic or hospital. However, do not stop here. Also report yourself to local law enforcement. This provides two avenues to help prevent a horrible act.
•If you are contemplating killing multiple people at one time and you are ready to attack, report yourself to 911 and request immediate assistance. Explain that you can’t stop yourself from attacking. Give specifics of the target and your exact location.
•If you are reporting yourself, present staff and law enforcement officers with any written plans, journals, or manifestos that you have prepared. Describe the plan, including weapon type and planned timing of the attack.
•If you have been treated for mental health issues and have been prescribed medication, do not miss medication. Take all medications as directed by your physician. Give your physician or therapist/counselor a call and tell them you need immediate help. Go to the emergency room or local law enforcement office—they will help you.
•If you feel suicidal, seek assistance immediately at a local mental health clinic or hospital. Don’t just call, but actually go there.
FAMILY MEMBER
Family members have repeated opportunities over a considerable amount of time to observe a family member who may be having issues, may be converting to radical Islamic terrorism, or harboring strong hate/bias, or growing anti-U.S. sentiment. They also could be suffering from severe mental health issues. If this is happening, you will know it. If combined with obsession to obtain weapons, threats, and repeated examples of violent behavior, there should be raised concern.
As a family member, we often feel protective and hope for the best. We are willing to overlook threatening behavior, violent statements, suicidal talk, repeated violence, criminal activity, and even physical or mental abuse, because the offender is family. It is easy to overlook violent behavior as a “stage” and things will get better. Change your way of thinking. Assume it will get worse, not better.
A family member typically does not want to report on another family member. There may be much wishful thinking that all will be OK, the person doing the reporting fears he or she will never be forgiven. However, if behaviors and statements are threatening and there are expressed plans to harm others, the fact that the person is a family member is not the primary consideration. If concern is raised, it is far better to intervene before an act occurs than to be sorry that many were killed and maybe the family member was killed or took his own life. Intervention is better than the alternative for all concerned.
It is OK to express concern directly to the family member of concern if you feel safe to do so. If you do not feel safe, call local law enforcement and explain the concern specifically or provide an anonymous tip. If you report a family member, indicate the behavior of concern, any writings or statements of concern, social media or website postings of concern, criminal behavior, and any verbal or physical abuse.
How do you know what should be reported? My answer: You will know. We all have a lifetime of experience learning the good from the bad, the comfortable from the frightening, and fear from safety. Trust your senses. If you feel concerned, then there is likely a very good reason. Are we always correct—no! That is all the more reason why we should be specific when we report something we have seen that concerns us. Law enforcement is experienced in recognizing threat from descriptions of behavior. This is what they do for a living. If you believe that you have observed something that may be threatening, then report, even if anonymously. Let law enforcement pursue it. Importantly, if you do not see action from authorities, report again and inquire why something is not being done. If still no action, then call 911 or federal law authorities (e.g., the FBI). Remember, you are trying to save lives and do not accept inaction.
Family members have many opportunities to observe disturbing behavior. However, the concerned family member may not know what to do. All states in the United States have laws that provide forced observation in an approved setting if there is evidence of danger to self or others. Both are important. Call law enforcement if the family member is making threats toward others or expressing suicidal thoughts.
In many cases, those with suicidal thoughts and actions force others to kill them. This is true with mass victim attacks, as well. Suicide by cop is an expression that means a person commits an act that forces law enforcement to stop the act by killing the perpetrator. Threats combined with suicidal behavior and statements is a dangerous combination, even if a family member.
FRIENDS
Friends are very special. Sometimes friends are closer than actual family. We are born into family with no choice, but friends are family we select. This can make it very difficult to report a friend, even if on an anonymous basis.
So, you now have concerns. Your friend is not the same anymore. He has become more isolated, and his behavior and statements are more extreme. Although your friend has been loyal for many years, and you have shared many interests, you have noticed that he has become more extreme. He expresses hate for the United States, allegiance for international terrorists, expresses strong bias against racial, religious, or ethnic groups, or seems to be becoming increasingly irrational, and your concern has grown. Now you see some behaviors of concern. He is posting hate or anti-U.S. posts on social media, and is being outspoken, expressing hate for all U.S.-supported groups and associations. Perhaps he is suddenly acquiring weapons and/or ammunition. Trust your instincts. If your friend is heading down the wrong path, you need to intervene.
NEIGHBORS
Because of close proximity, neighbors have numerous opportunities to observe behaviors of those who live in proximity to them. You may know your neighbors well, or not know them at all. But their comings and goings and behaviors within the neighborhood and around the house, apartment, townhouse, or condominium are difficult to miss.
Prior to the Sayfullo Saipov October 31, 2017, rented truck run-down of victims in Manhattan, Saipov’s neighbors reported after the attack that they were suspicious of his and the family’s behavior for weeks to months prior to the attack. The family kept to themselves and the wife was rarely seen. When she was seen, she wore a niqab, the Muslim veil that covers the face except for the eyes. This was unusual because other Muslim women in the neighborhood were not as conservative.
Saipov also rented trucks like the one later used in the attack. The rented vehicles would sit in the street for many days without being used except for an occasional outing with the same two friends. Neighbors reported after the event that Saipov was practicing. It is difficult for neighbors to not give something away if planning a major attack. According to one neighbor, Saipov rented the type of trucks from Home Depot that are used for construction, but never did any construction work.7
Again, if there is concern for safety, you can report through any of a number of anonymous methods. One way to determine if there is enough cause for reporting is that if you see multiple behaviors that appear not to be right or suspicious, then it is best to report. For example, Saipov rented trucks that sat in the street unused in a climate where sympathizers have been asked by ISIS and Al Qaeda to conduct run-downs; the family appeared to be devout Muslim; and the same suspicious friends would come and go mysteriously. Any single behavior could be of less concern, but when taken together, concern increases. However, even a single instance of a threatening behavior can raise enough concern to be reported. For example, if three pressure cooker boxes are seen in a neighbor’s trash, given the current climate, I would report it anonymously.
Don’t worry about being politically correct if it appears there is real threat. Don’t let the fact that the suspected person is a member of a particular racial, religious, or ethnic group deter you. If you reported on this fact alone, then that would not be warranted. However, if threatening actions and behaviors are present, do not let group membership prevent you from reporting.
WORK
The workplace is unique. We may spend as much time or more with coworkers than family members. We become familiar with our workplace and coworkers. However, how we don’t truly get to know all coworkers. Unless we socialize with coworkers, we may not know their interests, hobbies, pastimes, or even political leanings. In many workplaces, coworkers are reluctant to voice political leanings unless they are very close to one and other.
In short, we know coworkers well enough to determine what would be called normal behavior over time. This means that anomalous behavior, or behavior that is not typical, stands out. Although there can be many reasons for unusual behavior, the focus here is on potential mass victim attack preparation.
It is also important to realize that some mass victim attacks are hybrids. In other words, the person observed may not fit neatly into a single category such as international terrorism, domestic terrorism, self-radicalized terrorism, hate/bias, or mental health issues. For example, Major Nidal Hassan’s attack at Fort Hood, Texas, was a mixture of self-radicalized terrorism, workplace violence (hate/bias), and domestic terrorism. Regardless of “type,” Hassan walked into a room at Fort Hood, killed 13 people and injured 30 others. This is definitely an example of see something, say nothing. Although a U.S. Army major (psychiatrist), he wore Muslim dress on base, made strong anti-U.S. statements, and exhibited multiple examples of radical Islam leanings.
What Should Concern Us in the Workplace?
We should be aware of changes in coworkers in the workplace, That is, changes that should be of concern. The following are among the most significant changes that should be of concern to us:
•The coworker is expressing strong disagreement with the organization or specific managers that includes threatening statements (e.g., I wish he/she was dead, I could kill him/her, etc.).
•The coworker is increasingly disgruntled and unhappy, with emotional charges made against specific staff.
•The coworker expresses desire to purchase or has stated that he/she has purchased a weapon.
•The coworker appears to be self-radicalized, expressing strong radical Islamic statements against the United States or specific managers or employees.
•The person starts wearing Muslim dress while at the same time expressing strong anti-U.S. or anti-organization statements.
•The person makes repeated threats of harm directed against other employees or management.
•The person has quit employment at the organization or has been terminated based on disgruntlement or threats being made and shows up at work unannounced.
•The person, whether currently employed or formerly employed, uses social media to make threats directed toward other employees.
•Any evidence that an employee might have a weapon at work.
•You feel personally threatened by a coworker.
To report, immediately go to human resources (HR) to file a complaint if you have trust that all will be held in confidence. If you do not have trust in HR (some may be “leaky”), then file an anonymous law enforcement report detailing what specifically is of concern. Does your place of employment have security? You can also report to security, but again make sure all will be in confidence.
Disgruntled coworkers, if upset with you, can harbor grudges or want to seek revenge if they know that you reported them.
IMMINENT THREAT
Imminent threat is different. If you believe that a threat is present, and an attack is about to happen, call 911 and report immediately. Local law enforcement should always be called if behaviors are observed that could lead to a mass victim attack.
The following will provide examples of when you should call 911.
•Someone has placed a package on the ground, leaving it unattended. Immediately tell those around the unattended package, backpack, suitcase, or any other unattended container to move far away and call 911.
•You have witnessed someone having a weapon where a weapon is not allowed (e.g., airport, movie theatre, mall, sporting event, performance, etc.); immediately call 911 and report the exact location and what you have observed. Be as specific as you can.
•The suspected person has left with a concealed weapon or backpack after making such statements as “I will fix everything now,” “people will now be sorry,” or any threatening statement.
CROWD AWARENESS
The number-one consideration in mass victim attacks is the attacker’s requirement that there be a crowd of potential victims gathered in one location. A crowd increases the number of people that can be killed at one time if a bombing or if the attacker is using semi-automatic guns. If the attack is a stabbing or a vehicle run-down, a crowd provides more opportunity for fatalities and injuries. This means that you should have increased situational awareness in any crowded location. Awareness can pay off, especially if suspicious or threatening behavior is spotted prior to an attack.
The crowd is more important than the actual location. We have seen mass victim attacks in fast-food restaurants, bars, clubs, sporting events, malls, movie theatres, the Pentagon, the World Trade Center, government building/offices, workplaces, military bases and installations, elementary schools, high schools, colleges/universities, houses of worship, and streets with pedestrians. Although there may be a reason for picking an exact location, there would not be an attack without a crowd.
When in a crowd of any type or location, put away the smartphone and stop texting or listening to music. You need your senses functioning and focused on the crowd and situation. It is important to immediately report suspicious behavior. Prevention is our number-one way to survive mass victim attacks.