Surviving Mass Victim Attacks

Watching and reading the news can lead us to believe that we are helpless when it comes to protecting against mass victim attacks. The descriptions, videos, and survivor accounts are horrifying. The attacks are without mercy, and anyone from the unborn to infants to the helpless are killed or severely injured. Women, children, men, the physically and mentally challenged have been unfortunate fatalities and survivors with lifelong disabilities. However, we are not as aware of the many successes in preventing mass victim attacks. Successful prevention is not as sensational for media to cover. Therefore, we tend to know less about attacks being prevented than actual attacks.

To keep all in perspective, in the time since the 9/11 Al Qaeda attack, many mass victim attacks have been prevented in the United States, as well as in other countries. There have been successes, and we are getting better at prevention. To continue improving success rates in preventing mass victim attacks, we must first understand the reasons why we have had successes. Was it See Something, Say Something, increased personal security, more rapid law enforcement response, or improved pre-attack intelligence and investigation?

We must remember the underlying reasons for mass victim attacks. As this book has presented, international terrorism, domestic terrorism, self-radicalized terrorism, hate/bias, and mental health issues are all evident. Because we have not solved many of the various underlying issues that feed these types of attacks, we cannot expect significant reductions in their occur-rences. But, with improved methods, prevention can be successful, and we can learn how to better survive.

As an example of making strides against international terrorism, at the time of writing this book, the ISIS (ISIL) caliphate has been destroyed in Syria. The caliphate was a Jihadi-declared state, with Raqqa, Syria, being the center. This caliphate lasted for over three years and was a breeding ground for attacks against non-Jihadists, including the fueling of ISIS mass victim attacks. U.S. military and U.S.-backed forces have been successful with this mission. However, Al Qaeda and ISIS organizations are still alive and capable of mass victim attacks, as well as strong recruitment and encouragement of self-radicalized followers.

Successful prevention of mass victim attacks has, no doubt, saved countless fatalities and injuries. There are lists of successfully prevented plots and attacks. For example, the Heritage Foundation tracks such successes with international terrorism that is radical Islamic-inspired. This can include self-radicalized terrorism as well. In one such report, they listed 60 successes since 9/11.¹ Although it is beyond the scope of this book to highlight all successes, they fall into categories which will be highlighted here to demonstrate how successful prevention has been.

Categories of successes have included: (1) prevention of attacks from occurring, and (2) decreasing loss of life and injuries at the time of attack. First, through law enforcement investigative methods, including informants and infiltration, plots have been discovered and attacks prevented from occurring. As a second category of effectiveness, an attack has started but through quick intervention by affected citizens or rapid law enforcement response, additional fatalities and injuries were prevented from occurring.

By far the most successful prevention has been the methods and diligence of local and federal law enforcement. A detailed list of successful prevention, such as the one referenced, as well as additional research, demonstrates the value of discovery of plots to engage in mass victim attacks. Discovery has occurred in several ways, including the use of informants, monitoring social media such as chat rooms, and the successful covert infiltration of anti-U.S. groups and organizations.

There have been multiple examples of sting operations. For example, once a plot, such as a bombing, is discovered, law enforcement infiltrators may help the group acquire the materials for the planned bomb and follow through with attempted detonation at a target site. However, the group does not know the bomb is an ineffective dud. However, for legal purposes, there is no doubt of the intent to engage in an attack with a weapon of mass destruction. As a result of such methods, there are scores of would-be attackers serving lengthy sentences in prison, including life sentences, for their attempts to engage in mass victim attacks.

The most effective prevention has occurred in the categories of terrorism. Hate/bias and mental health disorder–based attacks have been more difficult to prevent. Why? Attacks born out of hate/bias and mental health issues are more private and depend little on others. In hate/bias attacks, the focus is to hit a hated group. This can include workplace violence in which a disgruntled member of the organization returns to seek revenge against a hated group of employees. Attacks born out of mental health issues or disorders may be the result of living out fantasies divorced from reality or seeking much-needed recognition. It is essential that family, friends, acquaintances, or neighbors report suspicious activities of those fitting into these two categories.

Hate/bias and mental health disorders still have pre-incident antecedents and behaviors that are present. Social media postings, website searching for liked-minded individuals, sharing violent plans on social media, surveillance, and personal communications with others motivated by the same drivers all exist.

See Something, Say Something has resulted in many reports. However, such reports are from untrained individuals and overall have not been that useful. For example, it has been reported that the number of suspicious package reports in New York grew from 814 in 2002 to 37,614 in 2006. The See Something, Say Something slogan, created by Allen Kay, an advertising executive, has been adopted by multiple agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security.² Although there have been rare cases in which reports led to prevention, the reports have been far less effective than law enforcement and investigative efforts.

See Something, Say Something has contradictions. On one hand, reports of effectiveness indicate that there are many “Say Somethings” per day, while other reports indicate that the public is afraid to report. Political correctness has become an overriding concern. To quote from the Department of Home-land Security site that encourages See Something, Say something :

The intent here is to try to focus reporting on suspicious behavior and not simply on ethnicity or appearance. However, if suspicious behavior is present and you have concerns, you should never let ethnicity, religious affiliation, or appearance prevent you from reporting—just emphasize the suspicious behavior. It is OK if emphasizing behavior to mention ethnicity, religious affiliation, or appearance.

Although See Something, Say Something is a valuable concept if used correctly, this is not the overwhelming reason why attacks have been prevented. The overriding reason attacks have been prevented is simple: improved and effective law enforcement intervention. We have learned much since the 9/11 attack. It was a wake-up call for law enforcement and intelligence services. The attack resulted in the formation of the Department of Homeland Security. Law enforcement agencies are working together more now than at the time of 9/11.

Citizen prevention can be viewed in two ways: (1) prevention of mass victim attacks, and (2) prevention of additional loss of life during an attack as a result of intervention. As previously presented, the vast majority of attacks prevented from occurring has been the result of official law enforcement actions. However, citizens have assisted in prevention as well. Although fewer than law enforcement successes, citizens have provided significant assistance in thwarting either an attack or reducing the number of deaths and injuries during an attack. There are a few examples.

•Khalid Ali-M Aldawsari was a Saudi Arabian citizen living in Texas. He had ordered phenol (carbolic acid), which is a dangerous and highly toxic substance that is also used to make improvised explosive devices (IED). The commercial supplier and shipping company staff were suspicious and reported the order to the authorities (i.e., See Something, Say Something). The FBI arrested Aldawsari after surveillance showed online searching on how to construct an IED and search for suitable targets. He had acquired most of the materials required.⁴ He was sentenced to life in prison.

The following examples illustrate how citizens not acting in an official law enforcement or security role have assisted in decreasing the number of fatalities and injuries:

•Perhaps the most well-known example of citizen involvement in attempting to prevent a mass victim attack from taking multiple lives is the attempt on the part of passengers aboard United Airlines flight 93 to prevent a successful hijacking from ending in tragedy. On September 1, 2001, four airliners were hijacked by Al Qaeda terrorists working in concert and using the hijacked airliners as weapons of mass destruction. As all likely know, two planes were flown into the North and South towers of the World Trade Center in Manhattan and a third was flown into the Pentagon. However, the fourth did not make it to its target.

Through cell phone calls, passengers on the flight discovered that the planes were being used to crash into targets. There was a vote, and three passengers, after saying their goodbyes to family on cell phones and aided by flight attendants, rushed to the front of the plane to gain control of the hijackers. The hijacker pilot, in response to the attempted intervention, violently tilted the plane back and forth and then finally turned it upside down and crashed it into the ground near Shanksville, Pennsylvania, at over 500 miles per hour and loaded with 7,000 gallons of fuel. All aboard perished. It appears the target was the White House, the Capitol, a nuclear power plant, or Camp David presidential retreat. Due to these brave individuals, and credit to all passengers lost on that flight, the target was not reached.

•In December 2001 Richard Reid had a significant impact on air travel that is still being felt today. In a flight from Paris to Miami, Florida, Reid had placed explosives inside his shoes. He attempted to light the fuses to the explosives while the plane was in the air, but was denied an explosion when passengers and flight attendants subdued him. The airliner made an emergency landing and he was arrested. He is serving a life sentence. We are still removing our shoes prior to boarding today.

In a similar manner, in December 2009 Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab attempted to detonate an explosive he had hidden in his underwear on a flight from Amsterdam to Detroit, Michigan. He had acquired two chemicals, pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) and acetone peroxide (TATP). PETN is similar to the more known nitroglycerin and TATP is used because it is difficult to detect. Although the substance caught fire, passengers and flight attendants quickly tackled and subdued Abdulmutallab and extinguished the fire. He was apprehended on landing and was later sentenced to life imprisonment.⁵

•At the Sunday, November 5, 2017, Sunday service at the First Baptist Church in Sutherland Springs, Texas, Devin Kelley approached the church and started shooting. He then entered the small church, targeting the congregation. He killed 26 and injured 20. As he was leaving the church, a nearby neighbor, Stephen Willeford, starting shooting at Kelley to stop him. Willeford’s gunfire hit Kelley in the leg and torso. Kelley was able to make it to his vehicle and left. Willeford, with the assistance of a nearby driver, Johnnie Langendorff, in his own vehicle, took pursuit. Kelley’s vehicle eventually crashed, and he was found with a self-inflicted gunshot wound that ended his life (see chapter 8).

•On September 17, 2016, self-radicalized Dahir Adan committed a hitand-run of a bicyclist and then approached the Crossroads Center mall in St. Cloud, Minnesota (see chapter 5), with two long knives and started a stabbing attack directed at innocent victims. Jason Falconer, an off-duty policeman who was armed, pursued Adan. It was a confusing situation in that Adan was in a security uniform and Falconer, the plain-clothes off-duty officer, was pursuing Adan with a raised gun. Falconer kept showing bystanders his badge, explaining he was the police. Adan approached Falconer twice in a threatening manner and Falconer shot Adan six times, killing him.

Although there are few examples of citizen reporting resulting in actual prevention of a mass victim attack, we see that citizens have assisted during attacks. It should be noted that guns were used by some citizens in preventing additional deaths and injuries. It is difficult to stop an active shooter without the use of force. In the case of the attempted bombings, passengers sprang to action and were able to manually overpower the attackers.

To date, mass victim attacks have included guns, blade objects for stabbings, vehicles for run-downs, bombs, and even hijacked airliners used as weapons of mass destruction (e.g., 9/11 attack). My work on terrorism and other mass victim types of threat began 32 years ago. In this time, I have witnessed a change in tactics and planning, as well as in the attacks themselves. We even see a difference between the massive 9/11attack, in which nearly 3,000 people died and many thousands were injured, and those of more recent years. The new trend is to recruit or use self-radicalized zealots in low technology attacks against soft targets. A soft target for mass victim attacks is basically a group of innocent, vulnerable, and unprotected individuals.

Low technology attacks follow the Al Qaeda and ISIS instructions and communications. It is easy for a self-radicalized individual to use a rented vehicle or sharp blade weapons to attack, kill, and injure multiple victims. They do not require training or funding, or need to visit a terrorist organization in a foreign country. The attacks are simple, horrifying, and serve the purpose of terrorizing others.

However, we must keep alert and be aware of potential large-scale attacks using weapons of mass destruction. The new trend in vehicle run-downs and stabbings does not mean there is not planning for a massive 9/11 type of attack. Before the 9/11 attack, there was little to suggest an attack whereby multiple airliners could be hijacked almost simultaneously and essentially be used as guided suicide missiles. But, it happened. This type of threat still exists, although I would expect a different method. Today, if a small group of terrorists threatened a plane full of passengers with a box cutter or knife, I believe they would immediately be overpowered. My suggestion to airlines is to arm all staff on board with pepper spray and other nonlethal defensive weapons such as Tasers.

To successfully prevent mass victim attacks in the future, we must be aware of much more than how events in the past unfolded. The past is important, and we are likely to see much more of the same in the future. However, there are new threats, new bad actors, and more advanced ways of killing innocent people. Prevention and survival in the future requires understanding of both past threats and methods and what could be coming in the future.

The referenced list provides dangerous chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear agents (CBRN) available today to terrorists who have attacked the United States.⁶ Many add high-yield explosives (CBRN E ) to this list because they can be obtained or created from scratch (e.g., ANFO, made from readily available ammonium nitrate fertilizer and fuel oil).

Why should we be concerned about such weapons of mass destruction? Because they are well within the reach and current capabilities of terrorist organizations, particularly if they have support and resources provided by nation states (e.g., Iran among others). In the following section, I highlight these risks. We should make no mistake that such organizations as Al Qaeda and ISIS still desire mass victim attacks of even more massive proportions than those we have seen.

On March 20, 1995, five Aum Shinrikyo cult teams of two terrorists per team boarded separate subways from a Tokyo, Japan, subway hub, and in a coordinated manner released toxic Sarin gas. The attack killed 12 passengers with 5,500 treated in hospitals. Many were in a coma when treated, and some suffered permanent damage to eyes, lungs, or digestive systems. Although the effects of the attack were devastating, the delivery of the poisonous gas was not efficient. A U.S. Senate committee that investigated the attack later estimated that if delivered properly, the Sarin gas might have resulted in the death of tens of thousands.⁷

Toxic substances are indiscriminate and will affect all who come into contact with them. The purpose of chemical substances is to kill massive numbers of people and, unfortunately, there is no shortage of such substances. The following are examples.

Sodium or potassium cyanides: white to pale chemical that can be easily used to poison food or drinks.

Hydrogen cyanide (HCN) and cyanogen chloride (CICN): colorless to pale liquids that turn into gas at room temperature.

Symptoms can include nausea, heart palpitations, vomiting, mental confusion, and heavy and rapid breathing. If not treated immediately, exposure can progress to total confusion, extreme irritability, coma (passing out), and ultimately death. High doses can cause immediate breakdown of body systems resulting in collapse.

To dispel any misconception, this is NOT mustard that goes on a hamburger. In its toxic form, it can be clear to dark brown with a garlic-like smell. It is labeled as a blister agent because exposure results in just that—harmful and extensive blisters both external, on skin, and/or internally. It can occur as a liquid (room temperature) or as a gas. Both are exceedingly harmful, if not deadly. Mustard gas is not commercially available, but instructions are available on how to develop this toxic chemical.

Noted as a slower acting agent, the first contact may result in mild skin irritation which becomes more severe with fluid-filled blisters yellow in color. If inhaled, the lungs can be damaged, which results in labored breathing. In severe cases, death may result from actual suffocation due to water in the lungs and the inability to receive enough oxygen to sustain life. Symptoms might take 6 to 24 hours to appear. Unfortunately, there are few medical remedies once the process has started.

Sarin, Tabun, and VX are military-grade chemicals that are nerve agents. This means that if a person comes in contact with them, the nervous system is attacked. Because Sarin, Tabun, and VX are not available commercially, possession alone is cause for concern. The only purpose of a person not in an appropriate research or clinical setting to have any of these substances would be to weaponize any of the agents to cause death and injuries—at least that should be the assumption.

Sarin, Tabun, and VX are extremely toxic, and it takes relatively small amounts to achieve the wanted malicious effects. However, there are other substances that are less toxic but reach lethal levels if used in larger amounts. These other substances, according to the CIA site listed, are labeled as toxic industrial chemicals.

Two examples of these substances include Chlorine and Phosgene. Sarin, Tabun, and VX must be prepared by an expert. As mentioned, they are not commercially available. Although Chlorine and Phosgene are less toxic, they are present in large enough amounts to rival the commercially unavailable toxic chemicals. Perhaps one of the more significant vulnerabilities posed by Chlorine and Phosgene is that they are often shipped by truck or rail in very large quantities—large enough to be severely toxic, if released. Explosive detonation at the right location could be devastating. If tanks are ruptured by an explosion at the right time and at the right place, the effects could be highly similar to the release of a mustard agent.

Organophosphate pesticides include many different products but have highly similar actions. Products such as Parathion act as nerve agents if released in large quantities. They are not only highly toxic to insects, but also to humans. In fact, that is how they work against pest insects. Unfortunately, they also have the same nerve agent effect on humans even if less toxic than typically unavailable nerve agents. The solution for those with malicious intent to kill others is to ensure the release of large amounts of the substance. The agricultural pesticide can be purchased by the ton without raising concern if it appears the purchase is for agricultural pest control.

There are a number of symptoms related to nerve agent exposure, as well as other substances listed in this section. If interested, detailed information may be found on the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) website.⁸ However, primary symptoms of nerve agent exposure consist of pupils contracting to pinpoint size, more salivation than normal, and convulsions. All can progress to the point of death.

Biological agents are substances that are living or capable of replicating. There are well over 1,000 that are capable of infecting humans. However, there are several that are of extreme concern that can be used to cause mass fatalities. Anthrax, Botulinum toxin, and Ricin are among the top of the list of substances that can be weaponized and used against a target of a massive number of innocent people.

Perhaps the number one biological agent of concern is Anthrax. It can be found in nature, and cultivated, it is highly toxic, and has been used in attacks before. It occurs as spores, and can be weaponized as a spray (aerosol) or used to contaminate food. Less than a month after the 9/11 attack, reports of individuals contracting Anthrax delivered as a fine powder in mail started to surface. Letters were mailed to a news anchor, major politicians, and New York post offices—all mailed from Trenton, New Jersey.

The series of mailings resulted in five deaths, including two postal workers. Seventeen lived, but became ill.⁹ After much investigation, and given there was a suspect, no arrests were ever made. The suspect was Dr. Bruce Ivins, a microbiologist researcher at Fort Detrick, Maryland, who committed suicide by overdose after learning that criminal charges were going to be made. The series of events underscore the harsh reality of how Anthrax can be weaponized and how deadly the substance can be. Anthrax is typically fatal unless treatment is started within hours of exposure.

Of increasing concern is the potential for a foreign country–supported attack against U.S. citizens. Recent reports have indicated that North Korea is testing the use of ICBMs loaded with a warhead containing Anthrax. To date, the missiles are capable of reaching any spot in the United States from North Korea.¹⁰

Ricin is extremely toxic, being many times more deadly than military grade VX by weight. A dangerous substance, it can be easily extracted from common castor beans. Because it is slightly off-white in color and odorless, Ricin is extremely difficult to detect. Unfortunately, there is not a known treatment if it enters the bloodstream. Fortunately, it would take a significant amount, if inhaled, to be fatal. The substance breaks down in food if heated. It can be delivered by food, air, or water.

Botulinum toxin is a naturally occurring substance found in soil. It is one of the most toxic substances known and is among the top agents as a potential weapon of mass destruction. Instructions to produce this toxin have been found in terrorist training manuals. However, it is difficult to weaponize but likely to be effective in small, enclosed spaces (such as a movie theatre).¹³

A radiological dispersal device (RDD) is also referred to as a “dirty bomb.” It is not a nuclear bomb. The RDD is comprised of radioactive materials wrapped with a conventional explosive. When detonated, the radioactive material is spread throughout the area with the objective of contamination. There are two threats rolled into one: the explosion itself, and the spreading of radioactive material. If the material is placed without any explosive material it is referred to as a passive RDD. A small amount of radioactive material even with an explosive can be easily carried. If spread, the radioactive material can cause significant contamination.

The radioactive materials that could be used in a dirty bomb are readily available. For example, hospital diagnostic/treatment devices incorporate radioactive materials. Research laboratories may also have radioactive materials in enough amounts to result in significant threat, if used. There are other local organizations/companies that may use radioactive materials that could be stolen or purchased from an unethical employee.

There is also a risk of a true low-yield nuclear weapon that could be detonated. Such a device is known as an improvised nuclear device (IND). It is possible to construct such a device by modifying stolen weaponry or even constructing from scratch.

The use of an RDD or IND would be recognized more by the explosion than by symptoms. There would first be an explosion that would result in radioactivity being released, as well as having to deal with the effects of the explosion. In the case of an RDD, the explosion is not a nuclear explosion. In the case of an IND, the explosion would likely be greater and be a true nuclear explosion. The significance of the latter cataclysmic explosion would be obvious and immediate action would be warranted.

Typical symptoms at first would include nausea and vomiting. The speed at which such symptoms appear is directly related to how much radiation exposure occurred. For example, nausea and vomiting could occur within 6 hours for mild exposure and 10 minutes for severe exposure. After initial exposure, symptoms can continue to develop. I refer you to the Mayo Clinic website for a very good description of radiation sickness and amount of exposure.¹⁴

We have likely all seen a drone of one type or another. Perhaps we see the toy-like versions in the mall stores, or videos of drones used by the military. We may even see an occasional drone where it should not be—sporting events, near airports, or near businesses or schools. Because they are popular, recreational, and increasing in popularity, we will see more in the future. Yet they are new enough to require regulation if we are to protect ourselves from an attack from the air from drones operated by those who want to kill and harm us.

Drones have been weaponized and used by ISIS in battle to drop bombs. Claiming multiple deaths with the use of unmanned drones, ISIS and other terrorist groups certainly have the technology, means, equipment, and desire to kill others.¹⁵ This concern includes the U.S. efforts focused on mass victim attacks. It is also important to note that attackers do not have to be international terrorists. Certainly, domestic terrorists, self-radicalized terrorists, those fueled by hate/bias, and those with mental health issues can easily obtain drones commercially. Also, drones do not have to be used as a single drone attack. Multiple drones used simultaneously increase the chances of success.

If an explosive, or some form of chemical, biological, or radiological material is attached and dropped, there is little chance the perpetrator will be even noticed. The drone can be controlled from a distance. Certainly, remote-controlled devices carrying explosives is nothing new, but what was missing in the past was commercially available, unmanned vehicles, at relatively low cost. It does not take much ingenuity to attach a harmful payload.

Drones are here to stay. It is only a matter of time until we see a more serious, drone-based attack in the United States. It is one of those topics to know about from a mass victim attack perspective. The above section on chemical, biological, and radiological threats should be enough to know the types of payloads that could be attached to multiple drones attacking at the same time.

•One of the best ways to detect approaching or imminent danger is to become accustomed to observing others. If people in one area start expressing alarm, shouting, coughing, or begin to run, it is clear that a group of people have all observed or have experienced something alarming. Escape in the opposite direction.

•If you will be traveling out of the country, do your homework. Check the U.S. Department of State travel advisory site (travel.state.gov).¹⁶ The State Department issues regular warning for current threats if traveling to foreign countries. Also search on current terrorist threat for any specific country/city you may be ready to visit (e.g., “London England current terrorist threat”).

•Be aware of future threats and not just what has happened in the past. Reports of outbreaks of illness in one area should be heeded for many reasons.

Unfortunately, mass victim attacks are here to stay. Such attacks allow those with malicious intent and limited resources to commit horrible acts of slaughter that will certainly result in massive media coverage. Such coverage guarantees attention for an attacker’s message if an international terrorist, domestic terrorist, or a self-radicalized terrorist. It can also highlight a person seeking recognition if suffering from mental health issues and highlight the cause against a specific hated group if the attacker is motivated by hate/bias. In short, a successful mass victim attack provides the results to complete the act of targeting, planning, attack preparation, and committing the attack itself.

Local law enforcement, security, and federal law enforcement have learned much since the infamous 9/11 attack. They have been successful in actually foiling plots and stopping scores of attacks. We now need to ensure that citizens know the risks, know how to recognize threat when it occurs, how to report it, and how to survive if caught in a mass victim attack. This book was written to fill that gap. My last words: Practice situational awareness, recognize threat when it is there, and escape, if possible. If not, then hide until an escape is possible. Know when to stay in place, and know how to attack back if ever caught with no other alternatives.

Share knowledge with families, and keep alert if you are the responsible person with children, elderly, or physically/mentally challenged family, friends, or acquaintances in public places. Most importantly, don’t stay home. Live your lives and enjoy the many public places available within the United States. But times have changed. Just make sure you are knowledgeable and capable of acting out your self-protection planning.

Successful Prevention