Potential, Not Just Performance
In the Army, we are measured constantly and exhaustively. We get evaluation reports annually and every time we change jobs or our supervisor changes jobs. Our immediate superior evaluates us. So does our next higher superior, and his evaluation compares us with all our peers who serve under him. Our school performance is graded. Our spouses are silently observed. Our careers are obsessively examined and managed.
The reason is simple and obvious. We do not hire from outside. If we need a battalion commander fifteen years from now, we have to grow one now from a promising new second lieutenant. Sergeants major are not hired in from Walmart or Hertz. It takes many years to grow them from basic training recruits. I was told as a lieutenant that only one out of a hundred of us would become a general. Ah, but which one!
Performance evaluations determine that choice. They are an essential part of the promotion system. We are bended, folded, and mutilated throughout our careers.
Though necessary and useful, performance evaluations don’t give the whole picture. Past performance alone does not adequately predict future performance. Sure, if past performance is mediocre or worse, satisfactory or outstanding performance in the future is extremely unlikely, and if past performance ranges from better than satisfactory to outstanding, chances are good that performance in the future will continue at that level. But it’s not a sure thing.
In both the military and civilian worlds, evaluations of potential are mostly subjective, or even anecdotal. “She’s going all the way.” . . . “He’s got General Officer potential.” . . . “She’s a winner, promote ahead of others.” . . . “He’s a water-walker.” Judgments like these are based on more than performance. Leaders and bosses see qualities that separate some few from the crowd. What do they see?
For starters, they see consistently outstanding prior performance in different positions.
They see someone learning and growing intellectually, someone preparing for the next level, not just maxing out in his current job; someone who is ambitious, but not cutthroat.
They see someone tested by assignments and challenges generally given to people with more seniority and greater experience, thus indicating early that he can probably perform well not only at that higher level, but at levels above that one.
They see someone reaching outside his comfort zone to acquire skills and knowledge that are not now essential, but are useful at a higher level.
They see someone who has demonstrated strength of character, moral and physical courage, integrity, and selflessness, and who will carry those virtues to the next level.
They see someone who is confident about the next step. His ego is under control, and he is mentally prepared for the added responsibilities and burdens of higher office. It won’t go to his head. He is balanced.
They see someone who enjoys the respect and confidence of his contemporaries who may soon become his juniors.
Even when someone passes this kind of evaluation with high marks, mistakes can be made.
After an officer I knew was promoted from colonel to brigadier general, an inadequacy surfaced that had not been detected earlier, and he broke under the burdens and expectations that were placed on him. One morning he committed suicide in his garage. We missed signs and portents we should have seen. He would have served successfully for many more years as a colonel, but we raised him up to a position beyond his potential.
His was an extreme but not uncommon case. Many people cannot scale up to the next level. I have known officers who asked not to be considered for promotion. They were satisfied with their place in life, realized they couldn’t handle greater responsibilities, and had the courage to act accordingly. A promotion would have made them miserable.
On the other hand, we sometimes missed an officer’s true potential.
There are many kinds of executive positions. Someone who can’t thrive in one may perform spectacularly in another.
Colonel Dick Chilcoat, my executive assistant when I was Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, came highly recommended and I hired him sight unseen; I had never met him. Though he was only a few years younger than me, he had been passed over several times for promotion to brigadier general. Some problem earlier in his career had held him back.
Dick performed brilliantly for me, and I thought he should be promoted, but I realized that since he had missed promotion twice before, I needed to make the case that he had other talents that may not have been adequately considered by the promotion boards. I gave him a superior evaluation that pointed out another dimension of his potential—as an educator. The promotion board agreed and he was promoted to brigadier general. He went on to be promoted twice more, and rose to become commandant of the Army War College and president of the National Defense University. After retiring as a lieutenant general, he became dean of the George H. W. Bush School at Texas A&M University. He was a master educator. Dick, I’m sad to say, passed away in 2010.
At other times I’ve recommended someone for promotion to the next higher level with the understanding that he would go no further. This person had unique abilities that we needed one step up, but he had to stop there. No higher. His unique abilities would not be needed at a higher level, or he did not have the additional abilities the higher level required.
Needless to say, it may happen that he grows and expands his potential, or else the higher-level position may change and require his unique abilities.
The leader must understand his subordinates, an imperative that includes identifying, training, watching, mentoring, encouraging, and evaluating the next generation of his organization’s leaders.
But leaders are not gods. Their understanding is never totally clear, totally accurate, totally certain. Every leader is human . . . imperfectly human. Water-walkers sometimes fail, and quiet walkers sometimes end up on top. Leaders need to watch all their subordinates; work with all of them, encourage the hotshots, but invest in the others. Always be prepared to change your mind, however firmly made up, when dealing with those infinitely faceted beings we call people.
The leader must never forget that he may end up working for one of them.