Tables are indicated by t following the page number.
actor rationality, deterrence and, 119–21
Afghanistan, 99
Agreed Framework, 79, 80, 81, 83, 94, 187, 189, 195
air force, 132
airplane bombing, 135
Albright, David, 133
alliances: in East Asia, China and, 158–60
allies, reassurance of, 145–47
Arab Spring, 182
arms reduction, 19
Armstrong, Charles, 49
army, 131–32
artillery, 5, 131. See also Yeonpyeong Island
assassination attempts, 135
assured retaliation, in deterrence, 37t, 38
asymmetrical capabilities, 132–34
asymmetrical escalation, 22, 48
attribution error, 120–21
Australia, 29n3
ballistic missile defense (BMD), 142–43. See also intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs); Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
Banco Delta Asia (BDA), 83, 96
BDA. See Banco Delta Asia (BDA)
Beheading Operation, 207
Beijing-Washington G-2 idea, 159
blackmail, proliferation as, 73–84
BMD. See ballistic missile defense (BMD)
Bundy, McGeorge, 58
Burma, 135
Bush, George W., 42–43, 81–82, 93–94, 141, 186
byeongjin strategy, 2, 114–15, 123, 180, 199
calculus theory, 91–92
Campbell, Kurt, 45
capabilities, 131–34
Carter, Ashton, 1, 143, 145–46
Carter, Jimmy, 78
CCP. See Chinese Communist Party (CCP); Combined Counter-Provocation Plan (CCP)
Central Military Commission, 35
Chamsu Jakjeon (Beheading Operation), 207
Cheonan sinking, 5, 59, 101–2, 105
emboldening and, 198
navy and, 132
Northern Limit Line and, 137
operational control and, 144
restraint in response to, 40, 209n3
United States and, 46
and alliances in East Asia, 158–60
Asian security legacy and, 158
commitment to peace by, 202–3
dependence on, 81–82
Korean War and, 160
maritime power of, 168–69
“Monroe Doctrine” of, 157
Non-Proliferation Treaty and, 162, 163, 177n80
North Korea and, 160–63
North Korean nuclear capabilities and, 163–68
and North Korean nuclear status, 41
as nuclear power, 162
Obama administration and, 44–45
Partial Test Ban Treaty and, 188
pragmatism of, 161–62
revisionism of, 159
rise of, 157
Russia and, 176n74
Six-Party Talks and, 162, 169, 202
Soviet Union and, 64
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense and, 166, 203
testing and, 188–89
“three-Rs” strategy of, 45, 158–60
United States and, 165–68
“Chinamerica,” 159
Chinese Communist Party (CCP), 158, 159
Chun Doo-whan, 135
Chung Mong-joon, 190
Clinton, Bill, 5–6, 59, 76, 78, 80, 93, 193n27
Clinton, Hillary, 44, 111n90, 138
Cold War: China and, 158
compellence in, 58
Cuban Missile Crisis in, 60, 63–65
nuclearization and, 182
provocations during, 40
regional situation and, 18
Soviet nuclear weapons after, 179
unification of Germany after, 26–27
collapse, of North Korea, 21–22
collective actor management, 18
Combined Counter-Provocation Plan (CCP), 119, 144
“competency trap,” 195
competitive management, 18
comprehensive safeguards agreement (CSA), 183–84, 193n22, 205
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), 181, 188, 206
computer hacking, 134
constitution, of North Korea, 33
context, deterrence and, 122
control, 61–66
CSA. See comprehensive safeguards agreement (CSA)
CTBT. See Comprehensive Test Ban
Treaty (CTBT)
Cuban Missile Crisis, 60, 63–65
cultural interchange, 19
Defense Reform Plan 307 (DRP 307), 103–4, 106
defensive systems, 27
delivery systems, 37
Delpech, Thérèse, 196
Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), 27, 131, 197
democracy, 43
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). See North Korea
attribution error and, 120–21
beyond, 206–9
cognitive psychology and, 120–21
as context-specific, 122
dictatorship and, 121–22
emergence of, as term, by North Korea, 44
in evolution of nuclear doctrine, 32–33
Kim Jong-un on, 129
limits of, 196–201
military balance in, 37t, 39–40
missiles and, 133
as North Korean strategy, 31–32, 36–42, 37t
preemptive attack prevention in, 37t, 38
proliferation and, 129
rationality in, 119–21
recognition of nuclear status in, 37t, 40–42
revisionist strategy and, 37t, 42–47
as social construction, 123–24
as South Korean strategy, 116–24
tailored, 43
in Tailored Deterrence Strategy, 118, 142
theory, 119–21
United States and, 48–49
diplomacy, 74, 138–40. See also Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT); Six-Party Talks
DMZ. See Demilitarized Zone (DMZ)
DPRK. See North Korea
DRP. See Defense Reform Plan 307 (DRP 307)
East Germany, 26–27
economic interaction, 19
economic responses, 140–41. See also sanctions
economy, of North Korea, 115
EDPC. See Extended Deterrence Policy Committee (EDPC)
Eisenhower, Dwight, 182
energy: from China, 81–82
nuclear, 44, 75–79, 83–84, 93–94
subsidies, 79–80
engagement, 124–26
Extended Deterrence Policy Committee (EDPC), 142
F-22 aircraft, 43
familial interchange, 19
first use, 35–36
Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty, 180
Foal Eagle, 105
France, 188
Freedman, Lawrence, 123–24
G-2 idea, 159
Gaesong Industrial Complex, 40, 61, 199
General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), 148–49
Germany, 26–27
Gottemoeller, Rose, 146–47
Grand National Party, 100
GSOMIA. See General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA)
hacking, 134
Hagel, Chuck, 1
Hart, B. H. Liddell, 130
Hawaii, 61
Hiroshima bombing, 2
Hoguk, 102
IAEA. See International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
ICBMs. See intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)
imperialism, 157
India, 33, 35, 51n13, 58, 60, 64, 130, 179
inspections. See International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
intellectual interchange, 19
intelligence sharing, 159
intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), 1, 51n17, 59, 96–97, 97–98, 198. See also missile(s)
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 44, 86n21, 138, 180
expulsion of, 94
light-water reactors and, 93
Non-Proliferation Treaty and, 181, 183–84, 185
proliferation and, 75–78
safeguards, 183–84
international system management, 18
Interview, The (film), 134, 141
Clinton, Hillary on, 138
in Quadrennial Defense Review, 43
technology transfer and, 21, 29n6, 186, 187
United States nuclear deal with, 195
Iraq, 5, 7, 38, 42, 43, 65, 99, 140, 182
Ishiba Shigeru, 190
Jammu military base, 60
Japan: American alliance with, 159
China and, 166
Non-Proliferation Treaty and, 186
and North Korean nuclear status, 41
proliferation in, 4
testing and, 59
in trilateral relationship, 147–49
Joint Declaration of a Denuclearized Korean Peninsula, 187
Joint Vision Statement, 146
Kaesong Industrial Region. See Gaesong Industrial Complex
KAMD. See Korea Air and Missile Defense System (KAMD)
Kazakhstan, 179
Keltner, Dacher, 62
Kennedy, John F., 64
Kerry, John, 203
Key Resolve, 105
Khrushchev, Nikita, 59, 60, 63–64
Kill Chain, 47, 117, 118, 143, 203
Kim Dae-jung, 100, 190, 211n20
Kim Jong-il, 26
disappearances of, 43
Iraq and, 43
stroke, 182
Kim Jong-un: byeongjin strategy and, 114, 180
control by, 67
on deterrence, 129
as dictator, 121–22
fear on part of, 65
legitimization of, 208
on nuclear weapons, 1–2
rationality of, 120
as successor, 50n9
threats under, 114–16
Kim Yong-nam, 40
Kissinger, Henry, 92
KN-02, 133
KN-08, 133
Korea Air and Missile Defense System (KAMD), 47, 115, 117, 118, 143. See also ballistic missile defense (BMD)
Korean Air Lines Flight 858, 135
Korean People’s Air Force (KPAF), 132
Korean People’s Army (KPA), 131–32
Korean People’s Navy (KPN), 132
Korean War, 2, 5, 58, 68, 114, 160, 181–82
Korean Workers’ Party (KWP), 34, 50n9
KPAF. See Korean People’s Air Force (KPAF)
KPN. See Korean People’s Navy (KPN)
Krepon, Michael, 35
KWP. See Korean Workers’ Party (KWP)
Laskhar-e-Taiba, 64. See also Carter, Jimmy
launch detection, 27
Law on Consolidating the Status of a Self-Defensive Nuclear Weapons State. See Nuclear Weapons State Law
laws, in policy adoption, 34
Lee Myung-bak, 100, 103, 146, 175n55
Lerner, Jennifer, 62
Lewis, Jeffrey, 3
Libya, 5, 7, 179, 182, 186, 187
light-water nuclear reactors (LWRs), 93–94
Li Jinjun, 170
loss aversion, 120–21
low-level provocations, 144
L-SAM, 118
LWRs. See light-water nuclear reactors (LWRs)
MCM. See Military Committee Meeting (MCM)
media, 137
Middle East crisis of 1973, 92
military balance, between North and South Korea, 37t, 39–40
military capabilities, 131–34
Military Committee Meeting (MCM), 145
military exercises, 36, 68, 102, 207
military responses, 141–44
miniaturization, 36
missile(s): capabilities, 132–33
defense, 142–43
intercontinental ballistic, 1, 51n17, 59, 96–97, 97–98, 198
KN-02, 133
KN-08, 133
and Korean Air and Missile Defense System, 47, 115, 117, 118
Musudan, 37, 51n17, 61, 133, 200
submarine-launched ballistic, 37, 115, 133, 198, 201
Taepodong-2, 51n17, 96–97. See also testing
Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), 180, 186–87
Monroe Doctrine, 157
Morgan, Patrick, 3, 117, 122, 123, 206
motivations, of North Korea, 24–25, 115–16
MRLs. See multiple rocket launchers (MRLs)
M-SAM, 118
MTCR. See Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)
multiple rocket launchers (MRLs), 131
Musudan missile, 37, 51n17, 61, 133, 200
Mutual Defense Treaty, 145
Myanmar, 43
Nagasaki bombing, 2
Nakagawa Shoichi, 190
Narang, Vipin, 35
National Defense Commission, 36
National Security Strategy (NSS), 42, 43
NATO. See North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
navy, 132
Nixon, Richard, 2
NLL. See Northern Limit Line (NLL)
nonproliferation, 20–22
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), 4, 33, 45, 76, 78, 95–96
basics of, 180–81
challenges to, 181–89
International Atomic Energy Agency and, 181, 183–84, 185
objectives of, 181
Pakistan and, 187
role of, 179
technology transfers and, 187
undermining of, 205–6
as weak, 189
withdrawal from, 12, 33, 45, 76, 77, 94–96, 184–86, 205
normalization, 44
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 182
Northern Limit Line (NLL), 100, 101, 132, 136–37
North Korea: actions of, 135–37
antagonization of South Korea by, 5
capabilities of, 131–34
China and, 160–68
collapse of, 21–22
economy of, 115
feelings toward South Korea of, 16
motivations of, 24–25
United States and, 16
Northwest Islands Command, 104
NPR. See Nuclear Posture Review (NPR)
NPT. See Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
NSS. See National Security Strategy (NSS)
nuclear doctrine: evolution of, 32–36
Nuclear Weapons State Law and, 34–36
nuclear energy, 44, 75–79, 83–84, 93–94
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. See Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), 42, 45–46, 146, 200
Nuclear Security Summit, 147
nuclear status recognition, in deterrence, 37t, 40–42
Nuclear Suppliers Group, 180, 205
nuclear testing. See testing
nuclear war prevention, deterrence in, 37t, 39
Nuclear Weapons State Law, 32, 33–36, 45–46
Bush vs., in approach to North Korea, 44–45
deterrence and, 46
diplomacy and, 138, 139–40, 191
in Joint Vision Statement, 146
military power shifts in, 53n46
sanctions and, 141
testing and, 99
on trilateral cooperation, 147–48
Yeonpyeong attack and, 111n90
OPCON. See operational control (OPCON)
operational control (OPCON), 68–69, 143–44
PAC-3, 118
“asymmetrical escalation” posture of, 35, 48
deterrence and, 20
Non-Proliferation Treaty and, 179, 186
proliferation and, 23
technology transfers from, 164, 186–87, 205
terrorism and, 22
testing and, 33
uranium enrichment and, 94
Partial Test Ban Treaty, 188
Perry, William, 126
Politburo, 35
political usefulness, of nuclear weapons, 92–93
preemptive attack prevention, in deterrence, 37t, 38, 42
as blackmail, 73–84
deterrence and, 129
diplomacy and, 74
drivers of, 73–74
propaganda, 137
Protect the Nation exercises, 102
Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), 43
Radio Free Asia, 59
rationality, deterrence and, 119–21
reassurance, 124–26
Republican Party, 42–43
Republic of Korea (ROK). See South Korea
reputation, 91–92
retaliation, 35–36
assured, in deterrence, 37t, 38
revisionist strategy, 37t, 42–47, 159
rhetoric, 137
risk, 61–66
Ri Su-yong, 204
rocket launchers, 131
rogue states, 121
Roh Moo-hyun, 100
Russia, 20, 23, 58, 162, 176n74, 179, 186. See also Soviet Union
Saenuri Party, 100
sanctions, 31, 59, 78, 130, 140–41, 195–96
China and, 45, 170, 173n22, 201
limits of, 80
Non-Proliferation Treaty and, 94–96, 188
peace treaty and, 41
public discontent over, 49
severe, 55
testing and, 109n58
unification and, 19
SCM. See Security Consultative Meeting (SCM)
Security Consultative Meeting (SCM), 46, 142, 145–46
Security Council Resolution 1718, 99
Security Council Resolution 2270, 200
Security Council Resolution 2276, 141
Seoul, 2
Sheehan, Michael, 127n3
breakdown of, 38
concession-seeking in, 73
denuclearization and, 40
Non-Proliferation Treaty and, 186
threats and, 95–97
SLBM. See submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM)
Snyder, Glenn, 196
Snyder, Scott, 45
social construction, deterrence as, 123–24
South Africa, 179
South Korea: attacks on, 100–105
cyber attacks on, 134
deterrence strategy of, 116–24
military balance with, 37t, 39–40
in military exercises, 36
North Korea’s feelings toward, 16
nuclearization of, 190
proliferation in, 4
sinking of ship of, by North Korea, 5
strategic environment of, 5–6
in trilateral relationship, 32, 147–49
United States and, 6, 46–47, 48
South-North Joint Declaration, 211n20
Soviet Union, 18, 58, 59, 60, 63–64, 64–65, 182. See also Russia
status recognition, in deterrence, 37t, 40–42
Strategic Forces, 35
Struckman, Dana, 134
submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), 37, 115, 133, 198, 201
subsidies, energy, 79–80
Sunshine Policy, 100
Taepodong-2 missile, 51n17, 96–97
Tailored Deterrence Strategy, 118, 142, 198–99
tanks, 131
technology transfers, 186–87, 194n40
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), 68, 118, 143, 166, 171, 203–4. See also ballistic missile defense (BMD)
testing, 135–36
Banco Delta Asia and, 96–97
byeongjin and, 115
China and, 188–89
compellence and, 58
deterrence and, 33, 43, 129–30
increasing power of, 197–98
military exercises and, 68
Obama and, 97–98
sanctions for, 99
underground, 187–89
THAAD. See Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
Thompson, Julia, 35
threats: credibility and, 98–100
hyperbolic, 98–99
under Kim Jong-un, 114–16
reputation and, 91–92
in rhetoric, 137
“three-Rs” strategy, 45, 158–60
Thurman, James, 104
TISA. See trilateral intelligence-sharing agreement (TISA)
Tokyo, 2
tracking, of North Korean weapons, 27
trilateral intelligence-sharing agreement (TISA), 159
trilateral relationship, 32, 147–49
Ukraine, 179
underground testing, 187–89. See also testing
unipolar management, 18
United Nations Security Council, 4
United States: China and, 165–68
Cold War and, 18
cyber attacks on, 134
deterrence and, 48–49
Iraq and, 42–43
in military exercises, 36
normalization with, 44
North Korea and, 16
Nuclear Weapons State Law and, 36
proliferation by North Korea as blackmail of, 73–84
responses of, 137–44
as target, 2, 3, 4, 55, 60–61, 66, 113
in trilateral relationship, 32, 147–49
unification and, 25–26
Yeonpyeong Island attack and, 103. See also Bush, George W.; Carter, Jimmy; Clinton, Bill; Obama, Barack
uranium-enrichment program, 36, 59, 187, 205
U.S.-Japan-ROK Trilateral Dialogue, 166
Voice of America, 59
Volpe, Tristan, 195
Waltz, Kenneth N., 39, 165, 196
Wang, Fei-Ling, 45
war prevention, deterrence in, 37t, 39
White, Ralph K., 42
Wolfowitz, Paul, 81
World Bank, 141
World War II, 2
Xi Jinping, 161, 166, 202, 210n12
Yeonpyeong Island, 5, 38, 41, 59, 94, 102–3, 105, 111nn89–90, 131, 137, 150, 198
Yokota Air Base, 149
Yuk Young-soo, 135
Zhu Chenghu, 174n36
Zimbabwe, 43