Notes
INTRODUCTION
3 Winston S. Churchill,
The World Crisis, 1911-1918, vol. 1 (Free Press, 2005).
4 John Gever, Robert Kaufmann, David Skole and Charles Vorosmarty,
Beyond Oil: The Threat to Food and Fuel in the Coming Decades (Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1987), 87.
5 Richard Heinberg,
The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism, and Economic Collapse (Gabriola Island, BC: New Society, 2006).
CHAPTER ONE
1 Edward Hull,
The Coal-Fields of Great Britain: Their History, Structure and Resources (London: H. Rees, 1905); Hull, E, 1864.
The Geology of The Country Around Oldham, Including Manchester and its Suburbs (Memoir of the Geological Survey of Great Britain), Sheet 88SW.
3 Energy Information Administration,
International Energy Outlook 2008 (Official Energy Statistics from the US Government, Report # DOE/EIA- 0484, June 2008), Chapter 4, “Coal,”
eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/coal.html. R/P ratios provided in Table 9, “World Recoverable Coal Reserves as of January 1, 2006,”
eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/table9.pdf.
5 A coal-mining engineer in South Africa once described to me in conversation how cost-driven mining techniques often disregard poorer-quality resources, and do so in such a way that once an underground mine is shut down, it is likely never to be re-opened. Eugene N. Cameron’s
At the Crossroads: The Mineral Problems of the United States (John Wiley & Sons, 1986) discusses how “workings deteriorate, and cave-ins may occur” in abandoned mines, frequently leading to a situation where “costs of rehabilitation may become prohibitive,” “mining of the poorer seams may never be resumed,” and “the coal involved in such mines becomes a lost resource.”
6 Eugene N. Cameron,
At the Crossroads: The Mineral Problems of the United States (John Wiley & Sons, 1986), 43-45.
7 Gordon H. Wood, Jr., Thomas M. Kehn, M. Devereux Carter, and William C. Culbertson, “Coal Resource Classification System of the US Geological Survey,”
Geological Survey Circular 891, USGS,
pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c891/.
14 David B. Rutledge, “Hubbert’s Peak, the Coal Question, and Climate Change,” California Institute of Technology, presentation (2007),
rutledge.caltech.edu/.
17 Kenneth Deffeyes,
Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert’s Peak (New York: Hill and Wang, 2005).
19 Jean Laherrère, e-mail message to author, April 17, 2008.
CHAPTER 2
1 Robert C. Milici, “Production Trends of Major US Coal-Producing Regions,” (in Proceedings of the International Pittsburgh Coal Conference, Pittsburgh, 1996),
byronwine.com/files/coal.pdf.
2 Marius R. Campbell, “The Value of Coal-Mine Sampling,”
Economic Geology, vol. 2, no. 1, (1907): 48-57.
3 Andrew B. Crichton, “How Much Coal Do We Really Have? The Need for an Up-to-date Survey,”
Coal Technology, August 1948.
4 Palmer Putnam,
Energy in the Future (New York: Van Nostrand, 1953).
5 Paul Averitt,
Coal Resources of the United States (US Geological Survey Bulletin 1412, 1975), 131.
7 Energy Information Administration,
Recoverable Coal Reserves at Producing Mines, Estimated Recoverable Reserves, and Demonstrated Reserve Base by Mining Method (EIA, Report DOE/EIA 0584 (2007), Report Released: September 2008),
eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/acr/table15.html.
8 Committee on Coal Research, Technology, and Resource Assessments to Inform Energy Policy,
Coal: Research and Development to Support National Energy Policy (Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2007), 44,
books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11977.
10 Timothy J. Rohrbacher, Dale D. Teeters, Gerald L. Sullivan, and Lee M. Osmonson,
Coal Reser ves of the Matewan Quadrangle, Kentucky — A Coal Recoverability Study (USGS, US Bureau of Mines Circular 9355),
pubs.usgs.gov/usbmic/ic-9355/.
11 Committee on Coal Research, Technology, and Resource Assessments to Inform Energy Policy,
Coal: Research and Development to Support National Energy Policy (Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2007), 53,
books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11977.
16 David B. Rutledge, “Hubbert’s Peak, the Coal Question, and Climate Change,” California Institute of Technology, presentation (2007),
rutledge.caltech.edu.
CHAPTER 3
1 Jerry C. Tien, “China’s Two Major Modern Coal Projects,”
Engineering and Mining Journal (May 1, 1998).
2 According to the 1992 BP proven reserves estimate, borrowed from WEC data, 13.5 percent of China’s coal reserves consist of lignite, 24 percent non-coking bituminous coal, 28 percent coking bituminous coal, and 18.5 percent anthracite.
4 In 1987, the BP “Statistical Review of World Energy” listed reserves of 156.4 billion tons. In 1990, BP reported Chinese coal reserves as 152.8 billion tons. By 1992, the amount had fallen to 114.5 billion tons. Oddly, that official number has not changed in the succeeding 16 years, during which the nation has produced over 20 billion tons of coal.
10 David B. Rutledge, “Hubbert’s Peak, the Coal Question, and Climate Change,” California Institute of Technology, presentation (2007),
rutledge.caltech.edu.
CHAPTER 4
7 A. Salamatin, “Coal Industry of Russia — The State of the Art and Prospects for Development,”
Mining for Tomorrow’s World (Düsseldorf, Germany, 8-10 June 1999, Bonn, Germany: Wirtschaftsvereinigung Bergbau e.V., 1999), 329-335.
12 David B. Rutledge, “Hubbert’s Peak, the Coal Question, and Climate Change,” California Institute of Technology, presentation (2007),
rutledge.caltech.edu.
16 Heading Out, post on “From ASPO-USA to MinExpo — A Study in Contrasts,” The Oil Drum, comment posted September 30, 2008,
theoildrum.com/node/4579.
26 David B. Rutledge, “Hubbert’s Peak, the Coal Question, and Climate Change,” California Institute of Technology, presentation (2007),
rutledge.caltech.edu/.
CHAPTER 5
10 David B. Rutledge, “Hubbert’s Peak, the Coal Question, and Climate Change,” California Institute of Technology, presentation (2007),
rutledge.caltech.edu/.
18 David B. Rutledge, “Hubbert’s Peak, the Coal Question, and Climate Change,” California Institute of Technology, presentation (2007),
rutledge.caltech.edu/.
19 Barbara Freese,
Coal: A Human History (Basic Books, 2003).
20 During the British coal decline from 1970 to the present, the number of jobs in the industry fell from 150,000 to fewer than 5,000.
21 John Maynard Keynes,
The Economic Consequences of the Peace (New York: Harcourt, Brace and Howe, 1920).
30 David B. Rutledge, “Hubbert’s Peak, the Coal Question, and Climate Change,” California Institute of Technology, presentation (2007),
rutledge.caltech.edu/.
CHAPTER 6
3 The Earth Summit, “Agenda 21, the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development, the Statement of Forest Principles, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity,” (United Nations Conference on Environment and Development [UNCED], Rio de Janeiro, June 3-14, 1992),
un.org/geninfo/bp/enviro.html.
4 R.T. Watson and the Core Writing Team, eds.,
IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report (Geneva, Switzerland: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001),
ipcc.ch/ipccreports/assessments-reports.htm.
5 R.K. Pachauri, A. Reisinger, and the Core Writing Team, eds.,
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (Geneva, Switzerland: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2008),
ipcc.ch/ipccreports/assessments-reports.htm.
7 Colin J. Campbell and Jean Laherrère, “The End of Cheap Oil,”
Scientific American (March 1998),
dieoff.org/page140.htm.
10 Andrew B. Crichton, “How Much Coal Do We Really Have? The Need for an Up-to-date Survey,”
Coal Technology (August 1948).
11 Werner Zittel and Jörg Schindler, “Peak Coal by 2025 Say Researchers,”
Energy Bulletin, Energy Watch Group, (March 28, 2007),
energybulletin.net/node/28287.
12 Committee on Coal Research, Technology, and Resource Assessments to Inform Energy Policy,
Coal: Research and Development to Support National Energy Policy (Washington DC: The National Academies Press, June 2007),
nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11977.
13 Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart, eds.,
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), (Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 2000),
ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.htm.
19 Committee on Coal Research, Technology, and Resource Assessments to Inform Energy Policy,
Coal: Research and Development to Support National Energy Policy (Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2007),
books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11977.
25 Bill McKibben,
The End of Nature (Random House, 1989), and George Monbiot,
Heat: How to Stop the Planet From Burning (South End Press, 2007).
26 Erik Shuster, “Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants,” National Energy Technology Laboratory, Office of Systems Analyses and Planning, (June 20, 2008),
netl.doe.gov/coal/refshelf/ncp.pdf.
28 Tim Jackson,
Material Concerns: Pollution, Profit and Quality of Life (Routledge, 1996). For an application to environmental issues, see Larry Karp, “Global Warming and Hyperbolic Discounting,” CUDARE Working Paper 934R, (Department of Agriculture & Resource Economics, UBC, July 9, 2004),
repositories.cdlib.org/are_ucb/934R/..
30 In the United States, despite the cancellation of so many new coal plants in recent years, the National Mining Association projects that about 54 percent of the nation’s electric power will be coal-fired by 2030, up from the current 48 percent.
CHAPTER 7
10 United States Government Accountability Office Report to Congressional Requesters, “Crude Oil Uncertainty About Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production,” GAO-07-283, (February 2007),
gao.gov/htext/d07283.html 14 William Siemens,
Transactions of the Chemical Society 21, No. 279 (1868).
16 Bert Metz et al., eds.,
Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage, International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), (Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 2005),
ipcc.ch/ipccreports/srccs.htm.
18 Bert Metz et al., eds.,
Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage, International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), (Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 2005),
ipcc.ch/ipccreports/srccs.htm.
19 United States Government Accountability Office, Report to Congressional Requesters,
Key Challenges Remain for Developing and Deploying Advanced Energy Technologies to Meet Future Needs (Department of Energy, December 2006),
gao.gov/new.items/d07106.pdf.
CHAPTER 8
1 Committee on Coal Research, Technology, and Resource Assessments to Inform Energy Policy,
Coal: Research and Development to Support National Energy Policy (Washington DC: The National Academies Press, 2007),
nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11977.
2 Nicholas Stern,
The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review (Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 2007), and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Climate Change 2007 — Mitigation of Climate Change: Working Group III contribution to the Fourth Assessment (Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 2007).
5 Charles Hall, “The Energy Return of (Industrial) Solar — Passive Solar, PV, Wind and Hydro (5 of 6),” The Oil Drum, comment posted by Nate Hagens April 29, 2008,
theoildrum.com/node/3910.
7 Lynn White,
The Science of Culture, (New York: Grove Press, 1949).
8 See Adam Dadeby, “Should Eroei Be the Most Important Criterion Our Society Uses to Decide How It Meets Its Energy Needs?” The Oil Drum: Europe, comment posted August 20, 2008,
europe.theoildrum.com/node/4428.
9 World Energy Council,
2007 Survey of Energy Resources, 235.
10 Herman Daly,
Steady-State Economics (Island Press, 1991).
11 Bill McKibben,
The End of Nature (Random House, 1989).