Notes

CHAPTER 1: THE BLACKFISH EFFECT

1. William Alden, “Public Offering Values SeaWorld at $2.5 Billion,” New York Times, April 18, 2013, https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/04/18/seaworld-prices-i-p-o-at-top-of-range/?_r=0.

2. Samantha Bonar, “How Blackfish Director Gabriela Cowperthwaite Became SeaWorld’s Worst Nightmare,” LA Weekly, February 6, 2014, www.laweekly.com/arts/how-blackfish-director-gabriela-cowperthwaite-became-sea-worlds-worst-nightmare-4417148.

3. Rupert Neate, “Sea World Fights to Restore Its Image as Shares Sink in the Wake of Blackfish,” Guardian, November 6, 2015, www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/06/seaworld-blackfish-pr-profits-share-prices.

4. Tim Zimmermann, “First Person: How Far Will the Blackfish Effect Go?,” National Geographic, January 13, 2014, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/01/140113-blackfish-seaworld-killer-whale-orcas/. In October, CNN aired the movie alongside an organized Twitter campaign and cross-promotions on several of its popular shows, including Crossfire and Anderson Cooper 360. When Blackfish aired, CNN included #Blackfish on the screen to integrate Twitter and live-blogged conversations about the movie on CNN.com. Weeks later, Netflix released the film, and backlash against SeaWorld grew even more. Simon Rogers, “The #Blackfish Phenomenon: A Whale of a Tale Takes Over Twitter,” Twitter, November 6, 2013, https://blog.twitter.com/2013/the-blackfish-phenomenon-a-whale-of-a-tale-takes-over-twitter.

5. Ibid.; Aly Weisman, “Big Music Acts Cancel SeaWorld Performance After ‘Blackfish’ Doc Shows Mistreatment of Whales,” Business Insider, December 10, 2013, www.businessinsider.com/willie-nelson-barenaked-ladies-heart-cancel-seaworld-performance-after-blackfish-documentary-2013-12.

6. Christopher Palmeri and Mary Schlangenstein, “Virgin America Drops SeaWorld in Next Blow to Orca Parks,” Bloomberg, October 14, 2014, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-14/virgin-america-drops-seaworld-in-next-blow-to-orca-parks; Stephen Messenger, “Hyundai Motor Cuts Ties with SeaWorld,” The Dodo, November 14, 2014, www.thedodo.com/hyundai-cuts-ties-seaworld-819812155.html.

7. Roberto A. Ferdman, “What the Documentary ‘Blackfish’ Has Done to Sea World,” Washington Post, December 12, 2014, www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/12/chart-what-the-documentary-blackfish-has-done-to-seaworld/.

8. Aly Weisman, “Why the Director of ‘Blackfish’ Hasn’t Made a Penny Off the Film,” Business Insider, March 19, 2014, www.businessinsider.com/blackfish-director-gabriela-cowperthwaite-made-no-money-from-film-2014-3; Rupert Neate, “SeaWorld Still Battling Blackfish Fallout as Profits Fall by $10m for the Year,” Guardian, November 5, 2015, www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/nov/05/seaworld-blackfish-fallout-profits-fall-by-10m.

9. Zimmermann, “How Far Will the Blackfish Effect Go?”

10. Ibid.

11. Many articles and books talk about emerging markets. Many others offer prognostications about the future of geopolitics. Legal experts examine corruption and the risk of contract breaches. Supply chain experts talk about global vulnerabilities and how to create more resilient organizations that can withstand sudden disruptions from natural disasters. But rarely do these disparate threads come together to offer a coherent tapestry of how political actions affect business or what business leaders can do to better handle political uncertainty. Research and teaching about “strategy beyond markets” in business schools has increased, but it is still tiny and underdeveloped. One recent study reviewed three years of the Strategic Management Journal, arguably the most prestigious business strategy academic journal, and found that fewer than 10 percent of its papers examined political risk topics. Between 2012 and 2014, fewer than 3 percent of the nearly two thousand presentations at the Strategic Management Conference, the premier academic strategy conference in the country, focused on political risk. John De Figueiredo, Michael Lenox, Felix Oberholzer-Gee, and Richard Vanden Bergh, Strategy Beyond Markets (Bingley, UK: Emerald, 2016), xvi.

12. In July 2015, “political risk” returned 251 hits, which included several materials we published for our course. “Business risk” returned 2,806 hits, and “global business” returned 4,518 hits.

13. Samantha Azzarello and Blu Putnam, “BRIC Country Update: Slowing Growth in the Face of Internal and External Challenges,” Market Insights, CME Group, July 25, 2012, www.cmegroup.com/education/files/ed133-market-insights-bric-2012-8-1.pdf.

14. “Dating Game: When Will China Overtake America?,” Economist, December 16, 2010, www.economist.com/node/17733177. In 2010, the Economist predicted the size of China’s economy (calculating for purchasing power parity) would surpass that of the United States in 2019. In 2014, the IMF announced that using the PPP method, China had surpassed the United States as the world’s largest economy, nearly five years ahead of predictions. See International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2015, www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/index.aspx. If you had bet in 1950 what countries would be advanced economies today, the smart money would have been on resource-rich nations in Africa, not the Asian tigers of Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea. Michael Spence, The Next Convergence: The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World (New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 2011); World Bank, Commission on Growth and Development, The Growth Report Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development, 2008, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/6507/449860PUB0Box3101OFFICIAL0USE0ONLY1.pdf?sequence=1.

15. Renée Johnson and Geoffrey S. Becker, “U.S.-Russia Meat and Poultry Trade Issues,” Congressional Research Service, April 2, 2010, http://nationalaglawcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/assets/crs/RS22948.pdf.

16. Globalization has also transformed higher education. Each year, about 40 percent of our Stanford MBA students have come from outside the United States, from countries including Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Israel, Lebanon, Mexico, Nigeria, Poland, Rwanda, Spain, and Ukraine.

CHAPTER 2: MOVE OVER, HUGO CHÁVEZ

1. Rory Carroll, “Chávez Bans Sale of Coke Zero in Venezuela,” Guardian, June 11, 2009, www.theguardian.com/world/2009/jun/11/venezuela-coke-zero-hugo-chavez.

2. “Factbox: Venezuela’s Nationalizations Under Chavez,” Reuters, October 7, 2012, www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/08/us-venezuela-election-nationalizations-idUSBRE89701X20121008.

3. Witold J. Henisz and Bennet A. Zelner, “The Hidden Risks in Emerging Markets,” Harvard Business Review, April 2010, reprinted in Harvard Business Review, Thriving in Emerging Markets (Boston: Harvard Business Review Publishing, 2011), 204.

4. Nader’s book Unsafe at Any Speed attacked the safety record of American automobile manufacturers, who at the time were largely unregulated. Nader claimed that in 1964 alone, more than forty-seven thousand people were killed in auto accidents, and he accused U.S. car companies of designing vehicles with an emphasis on style rather than consumer safety. When he presented his findings at a Senate hearing in 1966, a firestorm erupted when it was revealed that General Motors had hired private investigators to find derogatory information to discredit him as a witness. In September 1966, President Lyndon Johnson signed the National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act, which established federal safety standards for U.S.-made cars, including seat belts for all passengers. Patricia Cronin Marcello, Ralph Nader: A Biography (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 2004), 17–27.

5. “Passenger Forcibly Removed from United Flight, Prompting Outcry,” All Things Considered, National Public Radio, April 10, 2017, www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/04/10/523275494/passenger-forcibly-removed-from-united-flight-prompting-outcry; Daniel Victor and Matt Stevens, “United Passenger Dragged from Overbooked Flight,” New York Times, April 10, 2017, www.nytimes.com/2017/04/10/business/united-flight-passenger-dragged.html; Roger Cheng, “United Airlines Gets Black Eye over Passenger Ejection Video,” CNET, April 10, 2017, www.cnet.com/news/united-airlines-passenger-ejected-in-intense-facebook-video/; press release from Eleanor Holmes Norton, April 10, 2017, http://norton.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/norton-wants-hearing-on-abusive-removal-of-united-airlines-passenger.

6. Victor Reklaitis, “United’s Stock Falls 1.1%, Wipes Out $255 Million off the Airline’s Market Cap,” MarketWatch, April 12, 2017, www.marketwatch.com/story/uniteds-stock-is-set-to-fall-5-and-wipe-1-billion-off-the-airlines-market-cap-2017-04-11.

7. James Griffiths and Serenitie Wang, “Man Filmed Being Dragged Off United Flight Causes Outrage in China,” CNN, April 11, 2017, www.cnn.com/2017/04/11/asia/united-passenger-dragged-off-china-reaction/.

8. Quoted in Mohamad Bazzi, “The Two Greatest Threats to U.S.-Iran Détente,” Reuters, January 22, 2016, http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2016/01/22/the-two-greatest-threats-to-a-united-states-iran-detente/.

9. Cara Lyttle, “FDI in Iran Soars with Sanctions Relief,” Financial Times, June 20, 2016, www.ft.com/cms/s/3/549d0dac-36d6-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html#axzz4DsLV4f3e.

10. “California’s Economy Is Bigger Than All but Five Nations, World Bank Data Says,” San Jose Mercury News, July 5, 2016, www.mercurynews.com/2016/07/05/californias-economy-is-bigger-than-all-but-five-nations-world-bank-data-says/.

11. “Governor Abbott Rejects Obama Administration’s Request to Lift Iran Sanctions,” Office of the Texas Governor, May 16, 2016, http://gov.texas.gov/news/press-release/22315.

12. Andrew Soergel, “Economy Still Reeling from West Coast Slowdown,” U.S. News & World Report, February 23, 2016, www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-02-23/a-year-later-west-coast-labor-disputes-cost-still-unresolved; Laura Stevens and Paul Ziobro, “Ports Gridlock Reshapes the Supply Chain,” Wall Street Journal, March 5, 2015, www.wsj.com/articles/ports-gridlock-reshapes-the-supply-chain-1425567704.

13. Ibid.; Robert J. Bowman, “A Vow After West Coast Port Disruption: Never Again,” SupplyChainBrain, June 1, 2015, www.supplychainbrain.com/content/general-scm/global-supply-chain-mgmt/single-article-page/article/a-vow-after-west-coast-port-disruption-never-again/.

14. Quoted in Devon Maylie, “Alcoa Invests Near Planned Mines,” Wall Street Journal, March 24, 2008, www.wsj.com/articles/SB120631154713558085.

15. Quoted in ibid.

16. Lu Wei, “Dream of the Web,” speech at Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, February 9, 2015, http://cmp.hku.hk/2015/02/17/lu-wei-on-the-dream-of-the-web/.

17. “Jane Stanford: The Woman Behind Stanford University,” Stanford University, http://archive.is/80g7.

18. Mike Lennon, “Hackers Hit 100 Banks in ‘Unprecedented’ $1 Billion Cyber Heist: Kaspersky Lab,” SecurityWeek, February 15, 2015, www.securityweek.com/hackers-hit-100-banks-unprecedented-1-billion-cyber-attack-kaspersky-lab.

19. Statement from the press secretary, the White House, February 15, 2018.

20. The effort to integrate Europe began in the aftermath of World War II, with the creation of the NATO military alliance (1949), the European Coal and Steel Community (1951), and the European Economic Community (1957). Membership in European institutions expanded over the decades and culminated in the creation of the European Union in 1991.

21. Democracies fight wars against non-democracies. The key finding is that democracies almost never wage wars on other democracies. There is a rich literature in political science about what explains the democratic peace and the unique advantages of democratic regimes in international affairs more broadly. See, for example, Michael W. Doyle, “Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs,” Philosophy and Public Affairs 12, no. 3 (Summer 1983): 205–35; Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993); John M. Owen, “How Liberalism Produces Democratic Peace,” International Security 19, no. 2 (Fall 1994): 87–125; James D. Fearon, “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes,” American Political Science Review 88, no. 3 (September 1994): 577–92.

22. “Security Council Subsidiary Bodies: An Overview,” United Nations, www.un.org/sc/committees/index.shtml; “UN Sanctions,” Security Council Report, November 25, 2013, www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/special_research_report_sanctions_2013.pdf, p. 3.

23. Yossi Sheffi, The Resilient Enteprise: Overcoming Vulnerability for Competitive Advantage (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2005), 165–66, citing Christopher B. Pickett, “Strategies for Maximizing Supply Chain Resilience: Learning from the Past to Prepare for the Future” (Master of Engineering in Logistics thesis, MIT, June 2003), http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/28579.

24. Adrian Edwards, “Global Forced Displacement Hits Record High,” UNHCR, June 20, 2016, www.unhcr.org/en-us/news/latest/2016/6/5763b65a4/global-forced-displacement-hits-record-high.html.

25. William Spindler, “Ukraine Internal Displacement Nears 1 Million as Fighting Escalates in Donetsk Region,” ed. Leo Dobbs, UNHCR, February 6, 2015, www.unhcr.org/54d4a2889.html.

26. Amnesty International, “Syria’s Refugee Crisis in Numbers,” updated December 20, 2016, www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/02/syrias-refugee-crisis-in-numbers/.

27. The Rohingya are a Muslim minority group in Burma who have been denied citizenship and for decades have faced discrimination and persecution by the Burmese government. The United Nations classifies them as one of the most persecuted refugee groups in the world. Cf. Austin Ramzy, “Rohingya Refugees Fleeing Myanmar Await Entrance to Squalid Camps,” New York Times, October 18, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/18/world/asia/rohingya-refugees-myanmar.html; Lucy Westcott, “Who Are the Rohingya and Why Are They Fleeing Myanmar?,” Newsweek, May 11, 2015, www.newsweek.com/who-are-rohingya-and-why-are-they-fleeing-myanmar-330728.

28. Paul Collier, Wars, Guns, and Votes: Democracy in Dangerous Places (New York: HarperCollins, 2009).

29. Andrew Flowers, “How Thailand’s Coup Could Affect Its Economy,” FiveThirtyEight, May 23, 2014, http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-thailands-coup-could-affect-its-economy/.

30. Marek Strzelecki, “Poland Shale Boom Falters as State Targets Higher Taxes,” Bloomberg, May 21, 2013, www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-20/poland-shale-boom-falters-as-state-targets-higher-taxes-energy.html.

31. Ibid.

32. “Poland Says Will Not Tax Shale Gas Output Until 2020,” Reuters, May 22, 2013, www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/22/poland-shale-idUSL6N0E320Q20130522; “Poland Says Law on Shale Gas to Be Ready by Year End,” Reuters, November 26, 2013, www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/26/poland-shale-law-idUSL5N0JB1A120131126.

33. World Bank, Doing Business 2015: Going Beyond Efficiency, 12th ed., www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/WBG/DoingBusiness/Documents/Annual-Reports/English/DB15-Full-Report.pdf, p. 87.

34. Ibid., p. 88.

35. Cited in Witold J. Henisz and Bennet A. Zelner, “The Hidden Risks in Emerging Markets,” Harvard Business Review, April 2010, reprinted in Harvard Business Review, Thriving in Emerging Markets (Boston: Harvard Business Review Publishing, 2011), https://hbr.org/2010/04/the-hidden-risks-in-emerging-markets.

36. Quoted in “When a Country Defaults, Who Comes Knocking?,” NPR, October 9, 2011, www.npr.org/2011/10/09/141195893/when-a-country-defaults-who-comes-knocking.

37. “To Default, or Not to Default?,” Economist, June 20, 2011, www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/06/sovereign-defaults-and-gdp.

38. “Usual Suspects,” Economist, July 31, 2014, www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2014/07/daily-chart-23.

39. Michael Tomz and Mark L. J. Wright, “Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default,” Annual Review of Economics 5 (August 2013): 263, www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080443; Michael Tomz and Mark L. J. Wright, “Do Countries Default in ‘Bad Times’?,” Journal of the European Economic Association 5, nos. 2–3 (April–May 2007): 352–60, https://web.stanford.edu/~tomz/pubs/TW2007.pdf.

40. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat, The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge in an Uncertain World (New York: Oxford University Press, 2010), 75–76.

41. “Ian Bremmer on Sovereign Defaults,” Reuters, March 23, 2009, http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/03/23/ian-bremmer-on-sovereign-defaults/.

42. “Correa Defaults on Ecuador Bonds, Seeks Restructuring,” Bloomberg via Market Pipeline, December 12, 2008, http://marketpipeline.blogspot.com/2008/12/correa-defaults-on-ecuador-bonds-seeks.html.

43. Virginia Harrison and Chris Liakos, “Greece Defaults on $1.7 Billion IMF Payment,” CNNMoney, June 30, 2015, http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/30/news/economy/greece-imf-default/.

44. Sarah Chayes, Thieves of State: Why Corruption Threatens Global Security (New York: Norton, 2015).

45. Patrick Radden Keefe, “Corruption and Revolt,” New Yorker, January 19, 2015, www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/01/19/corruption-revolt. See also Cleangovbiz.org, OECD, “The Rationale for Fighting Corruption,” 2014, www.oecd.org/cleangovbiz/49693613.pdf.

46. World Bank, “Helping Countries Combat Corruption: The Role of the World Bank,” September 1997, www1.worldbank.org/publicsector/anticorrupt/corruptn/cor02.htm, p. 8.

47. Quoted in World Policy Journal blog, February 12, 2016, www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2016/02/12/talking-policy-sarah-chayes-corruption.

48. World Bank, “Helping Countries Combat Corruption.”

49. Transparency International, “Corruption Perceptions Index 2014,” 2014, www.transparency.org/whatwedo/publication/cpi2014.

50. Alvin Shuster, “In Some Countries, Bribes Remain Tax Deductible,” New York Times, March 20, 1997, www.nytimes.com/1977/03/20/archives/in-some-countries-bribes-remain-tax-deductible-postlockheed-picture.html?_r=0.

51. Martin T. Biegelman and Daniel R. Biegelman, Foreign Corrupt Practices Act Compliance Guidebook (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2010), 2.

52. Richard L. Cassin, “The 2016 FCPA Enforcement Index,” The FCPA Blog, January 2017, http://www.fcpablog.com/blog/2017/1/3/the-2016-fcpa-enforcement-index.html.

53. Richard L. Cassin, “Teva Announces $59 million FCPA Settlement,” The FCPA Blog, December 22, 2016, http://www.fcpablog.com/blog/2016/12/22/teva-announces-519-million-fcpa-settlement.html.

54. One key difference is that the FCPA allows “facilitating payments” that speed the process of business decisions but do not alter the outcome. The U.K. Bribery Act bans facilitating payments.

55. “Fifa Corruption Inquiries: Officials Arrested in Zurich,” BBC, May 27, 2015, www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32895048.

56. Stephen Heifetz and Evan Sherwood, “Those Other Economic Sanctions: Section 311 Special Measures,” Banking Law Journal, September 2014, www.steptoe.com/assets/htmldocuments/Banking%20Law%20Journal%20-%20September%202014.pdf.

57. Anna Yukhananov and Warren Strobel, “After Success on Iran, U.S. Treasury’s Sanctions Team Faces New Challenges,” Reuters, April 14, 2014, www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/15/us-usa-sanctions-insight-idUSBREA3D1O820140415; Steven R. Weisman, “Success in Macao Bank Case Demonstrates Reach of U.S. Financial Sanctions,” New York Times, June 27, 2007, http://mobile.nytimes.com/2007/06/27/business/worldbusiness/27iht-bank.1.6354294.html?referrer=.

58. “Brief History,” OPEC, n.d., www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/24.htm.

59. Greg Myre, “The 1973 Arab Oil Embargo: The Old Rules No Longer Apply,” NPR, October 16, 2013, www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2013/10/15/234771573/the-1973-arab-oil-embargo-the-old-rules-no-longer-apply.

60. Michael L. Ross, “How the 1973 Oil Embargo Saved the Planet,” Foreign Affairs, October 15, 2013, www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-america/2013-10-15/how-1973-oil-embargo-saved-planet.

61. Danielle Venton, “Rare-Earth Mining Rises Again in United States,” Wired, May 11, 2012, www.wired.com/2012/05/rare-earth-mining-rises-again/.

62. “Manipulation of China’s Rare Earth Minerals Supply Could Backfire,” Voice of America, October 25, 2011, www.voanews.com/content/chinas-rare-earth-minerals-supply-manipulation-could-backfire-132605798/168140.html.

63. “Update 2—China Loses Appeal of WTO Ruling on Rare Earth Exports,” Reuters, August 7, 2014, www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/07/china-wto-rareearths-idUSL6N0QD5T820140807.

64. “Manipulation of China’s Rare Earth Minerals Supply Could Backfire,” Voice of America; Richard Martin, “Molycorp’s $1 Billion Rare-Earth Gamble,” Fortune, November 18, 2011, http://fortune.com/2011/11/18/molycorps-1-billion-rare-earth-gamble/.

65. The White House, “Remarks by the President on Fair Trade,” March 13, 2012, www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/03/13/remarks-president-fair-trade; “Update 2—China Loses Appeal of WTO Ruling on Rare Earth Exports,” Reuters.

66. “Manipulation of China’s Rare Earth Minerals Supply Could Backfire,” Voice of America.

67. Quoted in Emily Steel, “Nestlé Takes a Beating on Social-Media Sites,” Wall Street Journal, March 29, 2010, www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304434404575149883850508158.

68. Greenpeace UK, “Have a Break?,” Vimeo, March 17, 2010, https://vimeo.com/10236827.

69. Quoted in Chris Rose, “Campaign Case Study: How Greenpeace Changed Corporate Behaviour over Rainforest Destruction,” Three Worlds, July 26, 2013, http://threeworlds.campaignstrategy.org/?p=265. See also Elliott Fox, “Nestlé Hit by Facebook ‘Anti-social’ Media Surge,” Guardian, March 19, 2010, www.guardian.co.uk/sustainable-business/nestle-facebook; Paul Armstrong, “Greenpeace, Nestlé in Battle over Kit Kat Viral,” CNN, March 20, 2010, www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/03/19/indonesia.rainforests.orangutan.nestle/.

70. Julie Creswell and Rachel Abrams, “Shopping Becomes a Political Act in the Trump Era,” New York Times, February 10, 2017, www.nytimes.com/2017/02/10/business/nordstrom-trump.html.

71. “Case Study: Always #LikeAGirl,” Campaign, October 12, 2015, www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/case-study-always-likeagirl/1366870; “Case Study: Always #LikeAGirl,” D&AD, www.dandad.org/en/d-ad-always-like-a-girl-campaign-case-study-insights/; Hannah Goldberg, “This Ad Completely Redefines the Phrase, ‘Like a Girl,’” Time, June 26, 2014.

72. Scott Stewart, “The Persistent Threat to Soft Targets,” Stratfor, July 26, 2012, www.stratfor.com/weekly/persistent-threat-soft-targets.

73. “List of Terrorist Attacks That Have Struck Europe in 2016,” Indian Express, July 25, 2016, http://indianexpress.com/article/world/world-news/list-of-terrorist-attacks-that-have-struck-europe-in-2016/; Lana Clements, “EU Death Knell: Eurozone Growth HALVES as French Economy Grinds to a Halt,” Express, July 29, 2016, www.express.co.uk/finance/city/694739/European-economic-growth-HALVES-as-France-grinds-to-a-halt.

74. Quoted in “Brexit Heightens Uncertainty in Global Economy, Says G20,” Guardian, July 24, 2016, www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/24/brexit-heightens-risks-to-global-economy-says-g20.

75. Julia La Roche, “The Amazing and Heartbreaking Story of the CEO Who Lived and Rebuilt His Firm After 9/11: Howard Lutnick,” Business Insider, September 11, 2011, www.businessinsider.com/cantor-fitzgerald-9-11-story-howard-lutnick-2011-9.

76. John Chambers, “What Does the Internet of Everything Mean for Security?,” World Economic Forum, January 21, 2015, www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/01/companies-fighting-cyber-crime/.

77. “All Fortune 500 Companies Have Been Hacked, 97% Know It, the Other 3% Don’t,” Homeland Security News Wire, January 8, 2014, www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/srcybersecurity20140108-all-fortune-500-companies-have-been-hacked-97-know-it-the-other-3-don-t.

78. Jonathan Weber, “Google Notifies Users of 4,000 State-Sponsored Cyber Attacks per Month” Reuters, July 12, 2016, www.reuters.com/article/us-google-cyberattack-idUSKCN0ZR2IU.

79. Elaine Edwards, “Cyber Security Experts Warned of a Hacked World,” Irish Times, February 15, 2017, www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/cyber-security-experts-warned-of-a-hacked-world-1.2976432. See also ISACA, “State of Cybersecurity: Implications for 2016,” www.isaca.org/cyber/Documents/state-of-cybersecurity_res_eng_0316.pdf.

80. Peter Elkind, “Inside the Hack of the Century,” Part 2, Fortune, June 25, 2015, http://fortune.com/sony-hack-part-two/.

81. “Net Losses: Estimating the Global Cost of Cybercrime,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 2014, www.mcafee.com/us/resources/reports/rp-economic-impact-cybercrime2.pdf, p. 2.

82. “GDP (Official Exchange Rate),” The World Factbook, Central Intelligence Agency, www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2195.html#xx.

83. Robert Dethlefs, “How Cyber Attacks Became More Profitable Than the Drug Trade,” Fortune, May 1, 2015, http://fortune.com/2015/05/01/how-cyber-attacks-became-more-profitable-than-the-drug-trade/.

84. Adam Janofsky, “Equifax Breach Could Cost Billions,” Wall Street Journal, September 15, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/equifax-breach-could-cost-billions-1505474692.

85. Ibid.

86. Between September 2014 and June 2015, the U.S. Department of Defense faced thirty million known attempted cyber intrusions. Only 0.1 percent of them compromised a cyber system. Department of Defense, Cybersecurity Culture and Compliance Initiative (DC3I), September 2015, www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/OSD011517-15-RES-Final.pdf, p. 1. During that same period, the Office of Personnel Management fended off ten million known cyber attacks per month. James Eng and Wendy Jones, “OPM Chief Says Government Agency Thwarts Ten Million Hack Attempts a Month,” Reuters via NBC News, June 16, 2015, www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/opm-chief-says-government-agency-thwarts-10-million-hack-attempts-n376476.

87. Bruce Schneier, “Who Are the Shadow Brokers?,” Atlantic, May 23, 2017, www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/05/shadow-brokers/527778/.

88. National Intelligence Council, “Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections,” Office of the Director of National Intelligence, ICA 2017-01D, January 6, 2017, www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf.

89. Mike Isaac and Scott Shane, “Facebook’s Russia-Linked Ads Came in Many Disguises,” New York Times, October 2, 2017.

90. Colin Stretch, Testimony Before the United States Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Hearing on Social Media Influence in the 2016 U.S. Elections, November 1, 2017.

91. James R. Clapper, “Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community,” Office of the Director of National Intelligence, February 26, 2015, www.dni.gov/files/documents/Unclassified_2015_ATA_SFR_-_SASC_FINAL.pdf, p. 1. The Navy has become so worried about vulnerabilities in GPS systems that it has started teaching cadets how to navigate with stars and sextants again, just in case. NSA director/U.S. Cyber Command commander Admiral Michael Rogers in 2016 warned that the next wave of hacking will alter data, not just steal, destroy, or release it. Imagine a world where military leaders cannot trust their missile defense systems, where a company’s product designs have been sabotaged but nobody realizes it, where an individual’s medical records may suddenly include the wrong blood type, where your bank account seems just a little off each month but you can’t be sure anything is wrong.

92. Quoted in 2014 Global Survey on Reputation Risk, Deloitte, October 2014, www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/Governance-Risk-Compliance/gx_grc_Reputation@Risk%20survey%20report_FINAL.pdf, p. 8.

93. Cyber experts note that “air gapped” systems that are not directly connected to the Internet are not safe from attack.

94. Aimee Picchi, “Target Breach May Have Started with Email Phishing,” CBS MoneyWatch, February 13, 2014, www.cbsnews.com/news/target-breach-may-have-started-with-email-phishing/; Brian Krebs, “Email Attack on Vendor Set Up Breach at Target,” KrebsOnSecurity, February 12, 2014, http://krebsonsecurity.com/tag/fazio-mechanical-services/.

95. Peter Elkind, “Inside the Hack of the Century,” Part 1, Fortune, June 25, 2015, http://fortune.com/sony-hack-part-1/.

96. Paul Farhi, “Bill O’Reilly’s Fox News Career Comes to a Swift End Amid Growing Sexual Harassment Claims,” Washington Post, April 19, 2017, www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/bill-oreilly-is-officially-out-at-fox-news/2017/04/19/74ebdc94-2476-11e7-a1b3-faff0034e2de_story.html?utm_term=.b56789107826. Emily Steel and Michael S. Schmidt, “Bill O’Reilly Settled New Harassment Claim, Then Fox Renewed His Contract,” New York Times, October 21, 2017, www.nytimes.com/2017/10/21/business/media/bill-oreilly-sexual-harassment.html?_r=0.

97. Mike Isaac, “Uber Founder Travis Kalanick Resigns as C.E.O.,” New York Times, June 21, 2017, www.nytimes.com/2017/06/21/technology/uber-ceo-travis-kalanick.html. See also Mike Isaac, “Uber Fires 20 Amid Investigation into Workplace Culture,” New York Times, June 6, 2017, www.nytimes.com/2017/06/06/technology/uber-fired.html; Mike Isaac, “Inside Uber’s Aggressive, Unrestrained Workplace Culture,” New York Times, February 22, 2017, www.nytimes.com/2017/02/22/technology/uber-workplace-culture.html.

CHAPTER 3: HOW WE GOT HERE

1. Cecilia Yap and Clarissa Batino, “Cargo Containers Jam Manila Docks in Rush-Hour Truck Ban,” Bloomberg, May 12, 2014, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-05-11/cargo-containers-jam-manila-docks-amid-truck-ban.

2. “Mayor Erap Lifts Truck Ban in Manila,” GMA News Online, September 13, 2014, www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/379022/news/metro/mayor-erap-lifts-truck-ban-in-manila.

3. Yap and Batino, “Cargo Containers.”

4. Bea Cupin, “Isko Moreno: Port Congestion Preceded Manila Truck Ban,” Rappler, September 8, 2014, www.rappler.com/business/industries/208-infrastructure/68572-isko-moreno-truck-ban-port-congestion.

5. Louella Desiderio, “Toyota Auto Parts Shipments Down 10%,” Philippine Star, January 22, 2015, www.philstar.com/business/2015/01/22/1415302/toyota-auto-parts-shipments-down-10; Chelsea Cruz, “Port Congestion Dampens Toyota Philippines’ Parts Exports,” InterAksyon, January 21, 2015, http://interaksyon.com/business/103504/port-congestion-dampens-toyota-philippines-parts-exports.

6. “Sales Volume Overseas,” 75 Years of Toyota, Toyota-Global.com, 2012, www.toyota-global.com/company/history_of_toyota/75years/data/automotive_business/sales/sales_volume/overseas/index.html.

7. John Gunnell, Standard Catalog of Chevrolet, 1912–2003 (Iola, WI: Krause Publications, 2011); Andy Thompson, Cars of the Soviet Union: The Definitive History (Sparkford, Somerset, UK: Haynes Publishing, 2008); Matt Gasnier, “France 1950: Renault 4CV and Citroen Traction Avant Shine,” Best Selling Cars Blog, http://bestsellingcarsblog.com/1951/01/france-1950-renault-4cv-and-citroen-traction-avant-shine/.

8. “Sales Volume Overseas,” Toyota-Global.com.

9. Dan Mihalascu, “Russia’s Best-Selling Car No Longer a Lada for the First Time Since the 1970s,” CarScoops, January 2, 2015, www.carscoops.com/2015/01/russias-best-selling-car-no-longer-lada.html.

10. Fairphone exemplifies just how much supply chains have globalized. Between 1995 and 2007, the number of transnational companies more than doubled, from 38,000 to 79,000, and foreign subsidiaries nearly tripled, from 265,000 to 790,000. “World Investment Report 1996: Investment, Trade and International Policy Agreements,” United Nations, August 1996; “World Investment Report 2008: Transnational Corporations, and the Infrastructure Challenge,” United Nations, July 2008.

11. Yogesh Malik, Alex Niemeyer, and Brian Ruwadi, “Building the Supply Chain of the Future,” McKinsey on Supply Chain: Select Publications, January 2011, https://commdev.org/userfiles/779922_McKinsey_on_Supply_Chain_Select_Publications_20111.pdf.

12. Demetri Sevastopulo, “Vietnam Riots Land Another Blow on the Global Supply Chain,” Financial Times, May 20, 2014, www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/abc9ba84-e01c-11e3-9534-00144feabdc0.html#axzz44yd9dVmh.

13. Clement Tan, “Li & Fung Sees Limited Impact from Vietnam Factory Unrest,” Bloomberg, May 15, 2014, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-05-15/li-fung-sees-limited-impact-from-vietnam-factory-unrest.

14. Ravi Anupindi, Boeing: The Fight for Fasteners, Case 1-428-787, Tauber Institute for Global Operations, University of Michigan, November 17, 2009; Ravi Anupindi, “Case Study: Boeing’s Dreamliner,” Financial Times, October 10, 2011, www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a7d38332-ef70-11e0-941e-00144feab49a.html#axzz3c78p4A2S.

15. Dave Demerjian, “Small Fasteners Cause Big Problems for Boeing,” Wired, November 10, 2008, www.wired.com/2008/11/the-little-fast/.

16. Quoted in “Boeing CEO Blames Industry for 787 Bolt Shortage,” Reuters, September 11, 2007, www.reuters.com/article/2007/09/11/us-boeing-alcoa-idUSN1141086620070911.

17. Chris Matthews, “Why China’s Stock Market Crash Could Spark a Trade War,” Fortune, January 7, 2016, http://fortune.com/2016/01/07/china-stock-market-crash-2/.

18. Karen Youresh, Derek Watkins, and Tom Giratikanon, “Where ISIS Has Directed and Inspired Attacks Around the World,” New York Times, March 22, 2016, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/06/17/world/middleeast/map-isis-attacks-around-the-world.html?_r=0; Jessica Roy, “Why You Probably Didn’t Hear Everyone Talking About These Major Terror Attacks,” Los Angeles Times, www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-terrorist-attacks-worldwide-20160329-snap-htmlstory.html; Jonathan Kealing, “This Weekend’s Terrorist Attacks Are Just a Handful Among Hundreds. Most of Them You Don’t Hear About,” PRI, July 4, 2016, www.pri.org/stories/2016-03-22/paris-there-have-been-hundreds-terrorist-attacks-many-have-gone-unnoticed.

19. “Refugees/Migrants Emergency Response—Mediterranean,” UNHCR, http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php.

20. Yoshi Sheffi, The Resilient Enterprise: Overcoming Vulnerability for Competitive Advantage (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2005), 88–90.

21. Martin Landau and Donald Chisholm, “The Arrogance of Optimism: Notes on Failure-Avoidance Management,” Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management 3, no. 2 (June 1995): 67–80, at 71.

22. Accenture research found that significant supply chain disruptions reduced the share price of impacted companies by an average of 7 percent. Cited in World Economic Forum, Building Resilience in Supply Chains, An initiative of the Risk Response Network in collaboration with Accenture, January 2013, www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_RRN_MO_BuildingResilienceSupplyChains_Report_2013.pdf, p. 7.

23. ManMohan S. Sodhi and Christopher S. Tang, Managing Supply Chain Risk (New York: Springer Publishing, 2012), 70, citing Hicks 2002.

24. Sheffi, The Resilient Enterprise, 13.

25. Christopher S. Tang and Joshua D. Zimmerman, “Managing New Product Development and Supply Chain Risks: The Boeing 787 Case,” Supply Chain Forum 10, no. 2 (2009): 74–86.

26. E2open and Exostar, Boeing 787: Global Supply Chain Management, Case Study, 2013, http://zygxy.jwzhn.com/foreign/Files/File/Boeing_case_study.pdf.

27. “787 Model Summary: Orders,” Boeing, February 2017, http://active.boeing.com/commercial/orders/displaystandardreport.cfm?cboCurrentModel=787&optReportType=AllModels&cboAllModel=787&ViewReportF=View+Report.

28. IBM, “The Smarter Supply Chain of the Future Report,” 2009, www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/gbs-csco-study.html, p. 13.

29. Russ Banham, “Political Risk and the Supply Chain,” Risk Management, June 1, 2014, www.rmmagazine.com/2014/06/01/political-risk-and-the-supply-chain/.

30. World Economic Forum, Building Resilience in Supply Chains.

31. Mary Driscoll, “Risk Management: Extreme Weather Increasingly Disrupts Global Supply Chains,” APQC, June 28, 2013, www.apqc.org/knowledge-base/documents/risk-management-extreme-weather-increasingly-disrupts-global-supply-chains.

32. Zachary Davies Boren, “There Are Officially More Mobile Devices Than People in the World,” Independent, October 7, 2014, www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/there-are-officially-more-mobile-devices-than-people-in-the-world-9780518.html.

33. Roger Cheng, “By 2020, More People Will Own a Phone Than Have Electricity,” CNET, February 3, 2016, www.cnet.com/news/by-2020-more-people-will-own-a-phone-than-have-electricity/.

34. Other emerging technologies—from artificial intelligence to crypto currencies—are poised to make profound impacts as well. See Amy Zegart, “The Tools of Espionage Are Going Mainstream,” The Atlantic, November 27, 2017, https://www.theatlantic.com/international archive/2017/11/deception-russia-election-meddling-technology-nationa-security/546644, and Reid Hoffman, “Why the Blockchain Matters,” WIRED Magazine, May 15, 2015, https://www.wired.co.uk/article/bitcoin-reid-hoffman.

35. “Time Magazine’s ‘Person of the Year’ Is… You,” NBC News, December 17, 2006, www.nbcnews.com/id/16242528/ns/us_news-life/t/time-magazines-person-year-you/#.VwvD2xMrKRs.

36. Mancur Olson, The Logic of Collective Action (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1971); Sidney Tarrow, Power in Movement: Social Movements, Collective Action and Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1994).

37. In the 2012 American presidential election, only 53.6 percent of eligible voters ended up casting ballots. See Drew DeSilver, “U.S. Voter Turnout Trails Most Developed Countries,” Pew Research Center, August 2, 2016, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/06/u-s-voter-turnout-trails-most-developed-countries/. A USA Today/Suffolk University Poll examining the 2012 election found that among unlikely voters, 41 percent said they were not bothered about not voting because they felt their vote did not make a difference anyway. See Susan Page, “What the Unlikely Voters Think,” USA Today, August 15, 2012, http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-08-15/non-voters-obama-romney/57055184/1.

38. Marc Fisher, “In Tunisia, Act of One Fruit Vendor Sparks Wave of Revolution Through Arab World,” Washington Post, March 26, 2011, www.washingtonpost.com/world/in-tunisia-act-of-one-fruit-vendor-sparks-wave-of-revolution-through-arab-world/2011/03/16/AFjfsueB_story.html.

39. Ibid.

40. Worker Rights Consortium, “Update on Bangladesh Apparel Factory Disaster,” press release, www.workersrights.org/press/WRC%20Update%20on%20Bangladesh%20Apparel%20Factory%20Disaster.pdf; Sarah Stillman, “Death Traps: The Bangladesh Garment-Factory Disaster,” New Yorker, May 1, 2013, www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2013/05/death-traps-the-bangladesh-garment-factory-disaster.html.

41. Taslima Akhter, “A Final Embrace,” Time, May 8, 2013, http://time.com/3387526/a-final-embrace-the-most-haunting-photograph-from-bangladesh/.

42. Michael Guerrerio, “The Number: Ten Cents,” New Yorker, May 16, 2013, www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-number-ten-cents; Patrick Lo, “H&M Responds Slowly to Bangladesh Factory Collapse Killing 1,100,” CorpWatch, May 19, 2013, www.corpwatch.org/article.php?id=15840; Steven Greenhouse, “Global Retailers Join Safety Plan for Bangladesh,” New York Times, May 13, 2013, www.nytimes.com/2013/05/14/world/asia/bangladeshs-cabinet-approves-changes-to-labor-laws.html.

43. Sara Ayech, “LEGO: Everything Is NOT Awesome,” Making Waves (Greenpeace blog), July 8, 2014, www.greenpeace.org/international/en/news/Blogs/makingwaves/lego-awesome-video/blog/49850/.

44. Simon Mainwaring, “How Lego Rebuilt Itself as a Purposeful and Sustainable Brand,” Forbes, August 11, 2016, www.forbes.com/sites/simonmainwaring/2016/08/11/how-lego-rebuilt-itself-as-a-purposeful-and-sustainable-brand/#4004d3256f3c.

45. Dominique Mosbergen, “Lego Saying ‘No’ to Plastic, Invests Millions into Search for ‘Sustainable Material,’” Huffington Post, June 24, 2015, www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/06/24/lego-plastic-sustainable-materials_n_7651190.html; Mainwaring, “How Lego Rebuilt Itself as a Purposeful and Sustainable Brand”; Lorenza Brascia, “Lego Puts Big Bucks Behind Push to Go Green,” CNN, June 25, 2015, http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/23/news/companies/lego-sustainable-material/.

46. Quoted in 2014 Global Survey on Reputation Risk, Deloitte, October 2014, www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/Governance-Risk-Compliance/gx_grc_Reputation@Risk%20survey%20report_FINAL.pdf, p. 5.

47. Global Risks 2015, World Economic Forum Report, http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2015/, pp. 28–30.

CHAPTER 4: MIND GAMES AND GROUPTHINK

1. Michael Elliott, “The Anatomy of the GE-Honeywell Disaster,” Time, July 8, 2001.

2. The EU has expanded since 2001 from fifteen member states to twenty-eight (including the United Kingdom, which voted in 2016 to leave the union, a process that remains under way). At the time of the proposed GE-Honeywell merger, the European Union consisted of Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The thirteen member states that have joined since then are Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. See “About the EU,” European Union, March 20, 2017, http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/member-countries/.

3. Raymond J. Ahearn, “U.S.-European Union Trade Relations: Issues and Policy Challenges,” CRS Issue Brief for Congress, May 1, 2006, www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/crs/ib10087.pdf; Elliott, “Anatomy of the GE-Honeywell Disaster.”

4. Quoted in “Spiking the World’s Biggest Merger,” Economist, July 3, 2001.

5. Andrew Ross Sorkin, “Failure to Acquire Honeywell Is Sour Finish for G.E. Chief,” New York Times, July 3, 2001, www.nytimes.com/2001/07/03/business/failure-to-acquire-honeywell-is-sour-finish-for-ge-chief.html.

6. Elliott, “Anatomy of the GE-Honeywell Disaster”; Michael D. Watkins and Max H. Bazerman, “Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming,” Harvard Business Review, April 2003, 5; Matt Murray, Philip Shishkin, Bob Davis, and Anita Raghavan, “As Honeywell Deal Goes Awry for GE, Fallout May be Global,” Wall Street Journal, June 15, 2001, www.wsj.com/articles/SB992563873127359695.

7. Quoted in “Merger Muddle,” Economist, June 21, 2001, www.economist.com/node/666703.

8. See, for example, 2013 World Investment and Political Risk, Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, World Bank Group, 2014, www.miga.org/documents/WIPR13.pdf.

9. International Telecommunication Union, United Nations, Global Cybersecurity Index 2017, www.itu.int/dms_pub/itu-d/opb/str/D-STR-GCI.01-2017-PDF-E.pdf.

10. 2014 Global Survey on Reputation Risk, Deloitte, October 2014, www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/Governance-Risk-Compliance/gx_grc_Reputation@Risk%20survey%20report_FINAL.pdf.

11. Thomas Davenport, “Why No One Wants to Be a Chief Information Officer Any More,” Fortune, March 10, 2016, http://fortune.com/2016/03/10/why-no-one-wants-to-be-a-chief-information-officer-any-more/.

12. “Stanford Salutes Professor William J. Perry,” YouTube, February 12, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7HSCDHZRYA, at 3:38.

13. Fred Smith and Brian Dumaine, “How I Delivered the Goods,” CNN, October 1, 2002, http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fsb/fsb_archive/2002/10/01/330568/.

14. Ibid.

15. “Universal Signs Deal for Beijing Theme Park,” Associated Press via Hollywood Reporter, September 15, 2015, www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/universal-beijing-theme-park-deal-823339.

16. Remarks by Kirtee Kapoor, DavisPolk, Stanford University Directors’ College, June 21, 2016.

17. The most authoritative account is the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board investigation, which was declassified in 2015. See “The 1982 War Scare Declassified and For Real,” National Security Archive, the George Washington University, October 24, 2015, http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb533-The-Able-Archer-War-Scare-Declassified-PFIAB-Report-Released/.

18. Approximately thirty thousand Americans die in car accidents annually, compared to one fatality about every two years from shark attacks in the United States.

19. Aaron Brown, “You’re More Likely to Die in a Black Friday Sale Than a Shark Attack,” Daily Express, November 12, 2015, www.express.co.uk/life-style/science-technology/618951/Black-Friday-Death-Injury-Shark-Attack.

20. World Health Organization Influenza Fact Sheet, November 2016, www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs211/en/; “Ebola: Mapping the Outbreak,” BBC News, January 14, 2016, www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28755033; Aurelio Locsin, “Is Air Travel Safer Than Car Travel?,” USA Today, http://traveltips.usatoday.com/air-travel-safer-car-travel-1581.html.

21. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases,” Science, New Series, vol. 185, no. 4157 (September 27, 1974): 1124–31.

22. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment,” Psychological Review 90, no. 4 (October 1983): 293–315.

23. Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow (New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 2011), 158.

24. Steven Strogatz, “It’s My Birthday Too, Yeah,” New York Times, October 1, 2012, http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/01/its-my-birthday-too-yeah/.

25. R. A. Olsen, “Desirability Bias Among Professional Investment Managers: Some Evidence from Experts,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 10 (1997): 65–72. As Kahneman wrote in 2011, “In terms of its consequences, the optimistic bias may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases.” See Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, 255.

26. Albesh B. Patel, Investing Unplugged: Secrets from the Inside (New York: Springer, 2005).

27. N. D. Weinstein, “Optimistic Biases About Personal Risks,” Science 246 (December 8, 1989): 1232–33.

28. Joseph P. Simmons and Cade Massey, “Is Optimism Real?,” Journal of Experimental Psychology 141, no. 4 (2012): 630–34.

29. D. Granberg and E. Brent, “When Prophecy Bends: The Preference–Expectation Link in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1952–1980,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 45 (1983): 477–81; Zlatan Krizan, Jeffrey C. Miller, and Omesh Johar, “Wishful Thinking in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election,” Psychological Science 2, no. 1 (2010): 140–46, https://public.psych.iastate.edu/zkrizan/pdf/Krizan_etal_2009.pdf.

30. S. P. Hayes Jr., “The Predictive Ability of Voters,” Journal of Social Psychology 7 (1936): 183–91.

31. Simmons and Massey, “Is Optimism Real?”

32. Nate Cohn, “Why the Surprise over ‘Brexit’? Don’t Blame the Polls,” New York Times, June 24, 2016, www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/upshot/why-the-surprise-over-brexit-dont-blame-the-polls.html?_r=0.

33. Dave Mosher and Skye Gould, “How Likely Are Foreign Terrorists to Kill Americans? The Odds May Surprise You,” Business Insider, January 31, 2017, www.businessinsider.com/death-risk-statistics-terrorism-disease-accidents-2017-1.

34. Yossi Sheffi, The Resilient Enterprise: Overcoming Vulnerability for Competitive Advantage (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2007), 26.

35. Michael Tomz and Mark L. J. Wright, “Do Countries Default in ‘Bad Times,’” Journal of the European Economic Association 5 (April–May 2007): 352–60, https://web.stanford.edu/~tomz/pubs/TW2007.pdf.

36. Data from Global Terrorism Database, www.start.umd.edu/gtd/. All observations are coded based on news and media reports. Therefore the numbers reported are a lower bound on the total number of terrorist attacks.

37. Sherman Kent, “A Crucial Estimate Relived,” Studies in Intelligence 36, no. 5 (Spring 1964): 111–19.

38. Ibid.

39. Warren Buffett, Annual Letter to Shareholders, Berkshire Hathaway, February 27, 2009, www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html.

40. The nuclear countries are: United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, and North Korea. In addition, Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons.

41. When the Soviet Union collapsed, three former Soviet republics—Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan—had nuclear weapons on their soil and ultimately, with the assistance of the forward-looking Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, gave them up.

42. Sonali Singh and Christopher R. Way, “The Correlates of Nuclear Proliferation,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48, no. 6 (December 2004): 859–85.

43. Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (New York: Random House, 2010), xxii.

44. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat, The Fat Tail: The Power of Knowledge in an Uncertain World (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010), 21.

45. Ibid., 179–80.

46. Diane Vaughan, The Challenger Launch Decision: Risky Technology, Culture, and Deviance at NASA (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1996); Richard Betts, “Surprise Despite Warning,” Political Science Quarterly 94, no. 4 (Winter 1980–81): 551–72.

47. Roberta Wolhstetter, “Cuba and Pearl Harbor,” Foreign Affairs, July 1965, 699; Richard Betts, Surprise Attack: Lessons for Defense Planning (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1982), 41, 97–99. See also Frederic L. Borch, “Comparing Pearl Harbor and 9/11: Intelligence Failure? American Unpreparedness? Military Responsibility?,” Journal of Military History 67 no. 3 (July 2003): 845–60, https://muse.jhu.edu/article/44242/pdf.

48. Vaughan, The Challenger Launch Decision.

49. Report of Columbia Accident Investigation Board, Volume 1, NASA, August 26, 2003, www.nasa.gov/columbia/home/CAIB_Vol1.html.

50. For industry differences, see A. L. Pablo, “Managerial Risk Interpretations: Does Industry Make a Difference?,” Journal of Managerial Psychology 14, no. 2 (1999): 92–107.

51. Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, “Status of World Nuclear Forces,” Federation of American Scientists, https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/; “Nuclear Notebook: Nuclear Arsenals of the World,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, http://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia.

52. Condoleezza Rice, No Higher Honor: A Memoir of My Years in Washington (New York: Crown, 2011), pp. 122–30.

53. Ibid.

54. Ibid.

CHAPTER 5: MOVING BEYOND INTUITION

1. Royal Caribbean International is one of several cruise lines owned and operated by its parent company, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd.

2. “Haiti Earthquake Fast Facts,” CNN, December 28, 2016, www.cnn.com/2013/12/12/world/haiti-earthquake-fast-facts/.

3. Myat Su Yin and John Walsh, “A Review of the Appropriateness of Royal Caribbean’s Actions in Visiting Haiti after the 2010 Earthquake,” Journal of Travel and Tourism Research, Spring/Fall 2010, 1; Leslie Gaines-Ross, “Reputation Warfare,” Harvard Business Review, December 2010.

4. Chuck Bennett, “Ship of Ghouls,” New York Post, January 19, 2010, http://nypost.com/2010/01/19/ship-of-ghouls/.

5. During the Haiti earthquake Goldstein was president and CEO of Royal Caribbean International. In 2014, he became president and chief operating officer of the parent company.

6. Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd. Annual Report 2015, www.rclcorporate.com/content/uploads/RCL-2015-Annual-Rreport-WEB.pdf.

7. “Royal Caribbean Provides Tourists, Relief to Haiti,” NPR, January 19, 2010, www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=122716579; Scott Mayerowitz, “Cruise-Ship Tourists Visit Haiti,” ABC News, January 19, 2010, http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/cruise-ship-tourists-visit-haiti-royal-caribbean-liners/story?id=9595955.

8. Jeneen Interlandi, “Cruises to Haiti Stir Controversy,” Newsweek, January 27, 2010, www.newsweek.com/cruises-haiti-stir-controversy-70855.

9. Interlandi, “Cruises to Haiti Stir Controversy.”

10. Leslie Gaines-Ross, “Reputation Warfare,” Harvard Business Review, December 2010, p. 7, https://hbr.org/2010/12/reputation-warfare.

11. On November 20, 2016, after several rounds of voting during a fourteen-month process, businessman Jovenel Moïse was elected president. He took office in February 2017.

12. “Haiti Earthquake Facts and Figures,” Disasters Emergency Committee, www.dec.org.uk/articles/haiti-earthquake-facts-and-figures.

13. Mary Mederios Kent, “Earthquake Magnifies Haiti’s Economic and Health Challenges,” Population Reference Bureau, October 2010, www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2010/haiti.aspx.

14. Kim Wall and Caterina Clerici, “Haiti Sees Tourism Promises Fade Amidst Electoral Tensions,” Time, January 26, 2016, http://time.com/4192693/haiti-tourism/, quote at 1:08.

15. Kate Rice, “Haiti Expects Carnival Port to Spur Further Tourism Development,” Travel Weekly, August 11, 2014, www.travelweekly.com/Cruise-Travel/Haiti-expects-Carnival-port-to-spur-further-tourism-development; interview with Peter Whelpton.

16. “Labadee, Haiti,” Royal Caribbean International, www.royalcaribbean.com/findacruise/ports/group/home.do?portCode=LAB.

17. Rice, “Haiti Expects Carnival Port to Spur Further Tourism Development.”

18. Interlandi, “Cruises to Haiti Stir Controversy.”

19. “Royal Caribbean Provides Tourists, Relief to Haiti,” NPR.

20. Royal Caribbean, press release, January 15, 2010, www.royalcaribbean.com/ourCompany/pressCenter/pressReleases/info.do.

21. Blog posts, June 11, 2010, and June 23, 2010, www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/category/category/haiti.

22. Sea World Entertainment, Inc., is the parent company that owns or licenses several brands, including SeaWorld, Shamu, and Busch Gardens, and operates about a dozen theme parks in the United States, including SeaWorld theme parks in Orlando, San Antonio, and San Diego.

23. Justin Chang, “Review: Blackfish,” Variety, January 26, 2013, http://variety.com/2013/film/reviews/blackfish-1117949104/.

24. Secretary of Labor v. SeaWorld of Florida, LLC, OSHRC Docket No. 10-1705, Decision and Order, Administrative Law Judge Ken S. Welsch, June 11, 2012, www.oshrc.gov/decisions/pdf_2012/10-1705.pdf. Lynne Schaber, a Senior Trainer 1 at SeaWorld, stated that employees were told that “if you found yourself in the pool with Tilikum, you might not survive” (pp. 22–23).

25. Secretary of Labor v. SeaWorld, p. 9; “Autopsy: SeaWorld Trainer Died from Drowning, Traumatic Injuries,” CNN, April 1, 2010, www.cnn.com/2010/US/03/31/florida.seaworld.autopsy/; Orange County Sheriff’s Office Investigative Report, Case Number 2010-016715, Detective Samara Melich, EID 2685, April 28, 2010.

26. Tara John, “California Bans Captive Breeding of Killer Whales at SeaWorld,” Time, October 9, 2015, http://time.com/4067762/california-bans-captive-breeding-killer-whales-orcas-seaworld/. SeaWorld contested the legal authority of the Coastal Commission to issue the domestic breeding ban.

27. “SeaWorld Launches National Television Advertising Campaign,” press release, SeaWorld, 2015, https://seaworldparks.com/en/corporate/media/company-news/2015/seaworld-launches-national-television-advertising-campaign.

28. Becky Peterson, “‘Are Your Tanks Filled with Orca Tears?’: SeaWorld Twitter Campaign Backfires as Marine Park Hashtag #AskSeaWorld Is Hijacked by Animal Rights Campaigners,” Daily Mail, March 31, 2015, www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-3019299/Are-tanks-filled-orca-tears-SeaWorld-Twitter-campaign-backfires-water-park-hashtag-AskSeaWorld-hijacked-animal-rights-campaigners.html.

29. Ibid.

30. Joel Manby, “SeaWorld CEO: We’re Ending Our Orca Breeding Program. Here’s Why,” Los Angeles Times, March 17, 2016, www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0317-manby-sea-world-orca-breeding-20160317-story.html.

31. “The Only Place Where Real and Amazing Live,” TV commercial, SeaWorld, www.ispot.tv/ad/A68O/seaworld-the-only-place-where-real-and-amazing-live.

32. Sandra Pedicini, “First Orcas, Now Orlando: SeaWorld’s Challenges Just Don’t Let Up,” Orlando Sentinel, August 21, 2016, www.orlandosentinel.com/business/tourism/os-seaworld-new-problems-20160818-story.html.

33. Ibid.

34. Ibid.

35. This step served to reduce violence, but it by no means eliminated the possibility of violence. In 2004, an uprising against former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide spread, resulting in the shooting death of a security guard outside the front gate of Royal Caribbean’s Labadee property. The incident prompted Royal Caribbean to cancel port visits there for three months. Marc Lacey, “An ‘Uphill Battle’ to Polish Haiti’s Image,” New York Times, February 15, 2007, www.nytimes.com/2007/02/15/world/americas/15iht-haiti.4609127.html?_r=0.

36. Secretary of Labor v. SeaWorld of Florida, LLC, pp. 24–29.

37. Ibid.

38. Quoted in ibid., pp. 36–37.

39. PETA’s SeaWorld campaign website, called SeaWorldofhurt.com, attracted about two dozen visitors per day before Blackfish. In 2015, the site had 1.3 million daily visitors all year long. Hugo Martin, “PETA Rakes in More Donations as It Denounces SeaWorld,” Los Angeles Times, February 16, 2016, www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-peta-donations-20160216-story.html.

40. Caty Borom Chattoo, “Anatomy of the Blackfish Effect,” Huffington Post, March 25, 2016, www.huffingtonpost.com/caty-borum-chattoo/anatomy-of-the-blackfish-_b_9511932.html.

41. SeaWorld Entertainment 2013 Annual Report. The six SeaWorld theme parks and companion parks were: SeaWorld Orlando, SeaWorld San Antonio, SeaWorld San Diego, Aquatica Orlando, Aquatica San Diego, and Discovery Cove (which is next to SeaWorld Orlando). The remaining five theme parks operated by SeaWorld Entertainment were: Busch Gardens Tampa, Busch Gardens Williamsburg, Sesame Place, Water Country USA, and Adventure Island (which is next to Busch Gardens Tampa).

42. Secretary v. SeaWorld, Judge Welsch Decision and Order, p. 3.

43. 2013 Annual Report, SeaWorld Entertainment, pp. 1–6; Kenneth Brower, “SeaWorld vs. the Whale That Killed Its Trainer,” National Geographic, August 4, 2013.

44. Secretary vs. SeaWorld, Judge Welsch Decision and Order, pp. 19-21; Kenneth Brower, “SeaWorld vs. the Whale That Killed Its Trainer,” National Geographic, August 4, 2013; David Kirby, “Near Death at SeaWorld: Worldwide Exclusive Video,” Huffington Post, July 24, 2012, www.huffingtonpost.com/david-kirby/near-death-at-seaworld-wo_b_1697243.html.

45. Michael Cieply, “SeaWorld’s Unusual Retort to a Critical Documentary,” New York Times, July 18, 2013, www.nytimes.com/2013/07/19/business/media/seaworlds-unusual-retort-to-a-critical-documentary.html.

46. Chabeli Herrera, “Royal Caribbean Reestablishes Stop in Haiti, Deems It Safe,” Miami Herald, January 26, 2016, www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article56710248.html.

CHAPTER 6: THE ART OF BOAT SPOTTING

1. We are grateful to Mary Driscoll from APQC for sharing this case study with us. APQC is a leading nonprofit organization that partners with more than five hundred global member organizations across industries to improve business productivity. Case study from APQC, “Best Practices Report, Enterprise Risk Management: Seven Imperatives for Process Excellence,” 2014. See also Jens Hansegard, “Building Risk Management at Lego,” Wall Street Journal, August 5, 2013, http://blogs.wsj.com/riskandcompliance/2013/08/05/building-risk-management-at-lego/; Mark L. Frigo and Hans Læssøe, “Strategic Risk Management at the Lego Group,” Strategic Finance, February 2012.

2. Case study from APQC, “Best Practices Report.”

3. Ibid. See also Hansegard, “Building Risk Management at Lego”; Frigo and Læssøe, “Strategic Risk Management at the Lego Group.”

4. Case study from APQC, “Best Practices Report.” See also Hansegard, “Building Risk Management at Lego”; Frigo and Læssøe, “Strategic Risk Management at the Lego Group.”

5. Frigo and Læssøe, “Strategic Risk Management at the Lego Group,” p. 31.

6. “Lego Is Building Itself Up to Pass Mattell as the World’s Largest Toymaker,” The Motley Fool, March 4, 2016, www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/03/04/lego-is-building-itself-up-to-pass-mattel-as-the-w.aspx.

7. Hansegard, “Building Risk Management at Lego.”

8. Some astronauts flew more than once.

9. Tariq Malik, “NASA’s Space Shuttle by the Numbers: 30 Years of a Spaceflight Icon,” Space.com, July 21, 2011, www.space.com/12376-nasa-space-shuttle-program-facts-statistics.html.

10. In 2014, U.S. carriers flew an average 22,211 flights per day, or 675,000 per month. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, United States Department of Transportation, www.rita.dot.gov/bts/acts/customized/table?adfy=2014&adfm=1&adty=2015&adtm=1&aos=6&artd=1&arti&arts&asts=1&astns&astt&ascc&ascp=1.

11. Quoted in Alan Levin, “There’d Be 272 Crashes a Day If Jets Failed Like Shuttles,” Bloomberg, October 31, 2014, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-31/there-d-be-272-crashes-a-day-if-jets-failed-like-shuttles.

12. See, for example, “Disney Named World’s Most Powerful Brand,” Walt Disney Company, February 18, 2016, https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/disney-named-worlds-most-powerful-brand/; “Disney Tops List of the World’s Most Reputable Companies for 2016,” Walt Disney Company, March 23, 2016, https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/disney-tops-list-of-the-worlds-most-reputable-companies-for-2016/; “The Harris Poll Releases Annual Reputation Rankings for the 100 Most Visible Companies in the U.S.,” press release, Harris Poll, February 18, 2016, www.theharrispoll.com/business/Reputation-Rankings-Most-Visible-Companies.html.

13. Andrey P. Anohkin, Simon Golosheykin, and Andrew C. Heath, “Heritability of Risk Taking in Adolescence: A Longitudinal Twin Study,” Twin Research and Human Genetics 12, no. 4 (August 2009): 366-71, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3077362/.

14. David Cesarini, Magnus Johannesson, Paul Lichtenstein, and Örjan Sandewall, “Genetic Variation in Financial Decision Making,” Journal of Finance 65, no. 5 (October 2010): 1725–54; Xavier Caldu and Jean-Claude Dreher, “Hormonal and Genetic Influences on Processing Reward and Social Information,” Annals of New York Academy of Sciences 1118 (2007):43–73, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17804523.

15. Claudia R. Sahm, “How Much Does Risk Tolerance Change?,” Working Paper, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Federal Reserve Board, June 26, 2008, www.federalreserve.gov/PubS/feds/2007/200766/revision/200766pap.pdf.

16. 2014 Global Survey on Reputation Risk, Deloitte, October 2014, www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/Governance-Risk-Compliance/gx_grc_Reputation@Risk%20survey%20report_FINAL.pdf, p. 5.

17. Tom Aabo, John Fraser, and Betty J. Simkins, “The Rise and Evolution of the Chief Risk Officer: Enterprise Risk Management at Hydro One,” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 17, no. 3 (June 2005).

18. Case study from APQC, “Best Practices Report.”

19. “About Us,” CEMEX, www.cemex.com/AboutUs/WorldwideLocations.aspx.

20. 2014 Global Survey on Reputation Risk, Deloitte, p. 15.

21. Case study from APQC, “Best Practices Report.” See also Hansegard, “Building Risk Management at Lego”; Frigo and Læssøe, “Strategic Risk Management at the Lego Group.”

22. APQC, “Best Practices Report.” See also Hansegard, “Building Risk Management at Lego”; Frigo and Læssøe, “Strategic Risk Management at the Lego Group.”

23. APQC, “Best Practices Report,” p. 40.

24. Quoted in 2014 Global Survey on Reputation Risk, Deloitte, p. 7.

25. Quoted in ibid., pp. 1–6.

26. Ibid., p. 9.

27. Video, “A Message from Tom Hill, President and CEO of BAAM,” Blackstone, www.blackstone.com/the-firm/asset-management/hedge-fund-solutions-(baam).

28. Hansegard, “Building Risk Management at Lego.”

29. National Intelligence Council, “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds,” Office of the Director of National Intelligence, December 2012, www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/global-trends-2030.

30. “Cybersecurity Futures 2020,” Center for Long-Term Cybersecurity, University of California at Berkeley, https://cltc.berkeley.edu/scenarios/.

31. Hansegard, “Building Risk Management at Lego”; Kristina Narvaez, “Value Creation Through Enterprise Risk Management,” PowerPoint presentation, ERM Strategies, July 2013, www.erm-strategies.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Value-Creation-Through-Enterprise-Risk-Management.pdf. In 2008, the Lego Group created four scenarios based on megatrends defined by the World Economic Forum. These included “More of the Same,” “Brave New World,” “Cut-Throat Competition,” and “Murphy’s Surprise.” For each, it identified key issues that might happen as a result of these trends and action steps for managing those issues. For more, see Frigo and Læssøe, “Strategic Risk Management at the Lego Group,” p. 33.

32. Paul Bracken and Martin Shubik, “War Gaming in the Information Age: Theory and Purpose,” Naval War College Review 54, no. 2. (Spring 2001).

33. Paul Bracken, The Second Nuclear Age: Strategy, Danger, and the New Power Politics (New York: Macmillan, 2012), 85.

34. Ibid., 87.

35. Geoff Wilson and Will Saetren, “Quite Possibly the Dumbest Military Concept Ever: A ‘Limited’ Nuclear War,” National Interest, May 27, 2016, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/quite-possibly-the-dumbest-military-concept-ever-limited-16394.

36. Tucker Bailey, James Kaplan, and Allen Weinberg, “Playing War Games to Prepare for a Cyberattack,” McKinsey, July 2012, www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/business-technology/our-insights/playing-war-games-to-prepare-for-a-cyberattack.

37. For a business war game primer, see Benjamin Gilad, Business War Games (Pompton Plains, NJ: Career Press, 2009).

38. Christine Negroni, “Dutch Safety Board: Ukraine Should Have Closed Its Airspace Before MH-17 Was Shot Down,” Air & Space Magazine, October 13, 2015, www.airspacemag.com/daily-planet/dutch-safety-board-ukraine-should-have-closed-its-airspace-before-mh-17-was-shot-down-180956921/?no-ist.

39. Alastair Jamieson, “Why Was Malaysia Airlines MH17 Flying over Ukraine? Time, Money,” NBC News, July 18, 2014, www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-plane-crash/why-was-malaysia-airlines-mh17-flying-over-ukraine-time-money-n159161.

CHAPTER 7: ANALYZING RISKS LIKE A PHYSICIST

1. Kiku Telecommunications is a fictitious company.

2. “Myanmar’s Ethnic War Grinds On,” Stratfor, October 8, 2015, www.stratfor.com/analysis/myanmars-ethnic-war-grinds; “Why Is There Communal Violence in Myanmar,” BBC, July 3, 2014, www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-18395788; “Reforming Telecommunication in Burma,” report, Human Rights Watch, May 2013, www.hrw.org/report/2013/05/19/reforming-telecommunications-burma/human-rights-and-responsible-investment-mobile.

3. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat, The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge in an Uncertain World (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010), 179–80.

4. PricewaterhouseCoopers and Eurasia Group, “How Managing Political Risk Improves Global Business Performance,” March 2006, summary of findings available at https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2006/03/30/341195/96448/en/Study-on-Political-Risk-Management-by-PricewaterhouseCoopers-and-Eurasia-Group-Reveals-Multinational-Companies-Need-a-Rigorous-Political-Risk-Management-Framework.html.

5. Drew Erdmann, Ezra Greenberg, and Ryan Harper, “Geostrategic Risks on the Rise,” McKinsey & Company, May 2016, www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/geostrategic-risks-on-the-rise.

6. This enthusiasm was widespread. A 2013 McKinsey study noted that the country was a “highly unusual but promising prospect for businesses and investors,” with sixty million people, a large labor pool, vast swaths of developable land, significant natural resources, a strategic location (neighboring half a billion people in the world’s fastest-growing region), and an emerging economy. Heang Chhor et al., “Myanmar’s Moment: Unique Opportunities, Major Challenges,” McKinsey Global Institute, June 2013, www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/asia-pacific/myanmars-moment.

7. Nomination of General Michael V. Hayden, USAF, to be Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Hearing Before the Select Committee on Intelligence, United States Senate, 109th Congress, Second Session, May 18, 2006, www.intelligence.senate.gov/hearings/nomination-general-michael-v-hayden-usaf-be-director-central-intelligence-agency-may-18#.

8. Nicholas Charron, Victor Lapuente, and Lewis Dijkstra, “Regional Governance Matters: A Study on Regional Variation in Quality of Government Within the EU,” Working Paper, European Commission, 2012, http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/work/2012_02_governance.pdf. See also Enterprise Surveys/World Bank Group corruption surveys, which in some cases subdivide by regions or states within individual countries. In Romania, for example, surveys find that the percent of firms expected to give gifts to secure government contracts ranges from zero percent in the Northeast, Northwest, South, and West regions to 29.3 percent in the Central region. www.enterprisesurveys.org/data/exploretopics/corruption.

9. Juan Forero and Taos Turner, “Challenger Mauricio Macri Wins Argentine Presidential Runoff,” Wall Street Journal, November 22, 2015, www.wsj.com/articles/argentines-cast-votes-for-president-1448209335.

10. Daniel Bases, Richard Lough, and Sarah Marsh, “Argentina, Lead Creditors Settle 14-Year Debt Battle for $4.65 Billion,” Reuters, March 1, 2016, www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-debt-idUSKCN0W2249.

11. Peter Schechter, “Argentina’s Mauricio Macri Needs Concrete Wins,” Forbes, August 15, 2016, www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2016/08/15/argentinas-mauricio-macri-needs-concrete-wins/#2990dd452c11.

12. Ibid.

13. Bruce Watson, “Cruise Line Visit to Haiti Highlights Ugly Side of Paradise,” AOL.com, January 22, 2010, www.aol.com/article/2010/01/22/cruise-line-visit-to-haiti-highlights-ugly-side-of-paradise/19328050/?gen=1.

14. The Dubai Ports World discussion is drawn mostly from Condoleezza Rice, William Barnett, and Cecilia Hyunjung Mo, “The Dubai Ports Controversy,” Stanford Graduate School of Business, Case GS-73, 2009, www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/case-studies/dubai-ports-controversy; see also “Key Questions About the Dubai Port Deal,” CNN, March 6, 2006, www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/03/06/dubai.ports.qa/.

15. Ibid.

16. Ibid.

17. Quoted in Julio J. Rotemberg, “The Dubai Ports World Debacle and Its Aftermath,” Harvard Business School Case 9-707-014, August 29, 2007, p. 4.

18. Quoted in Jim V, eHei [sic: VandeHei], and Jonathan Weisman, “Republicans Split with Bush on Ports: White House Vows to Brief Lawmakers on Deal with Firm Run by Arab State,” Washington Post, February 23, 2006, www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2006/02/23/republicans-split-with-bush-on-ports-span-classbankhead-white-house-vows-to-brief-lawmakers-on-deal-with-firm-run-by-arab-statespan/346ad4cb-6723-467b-b8d8-e362667d0acd/?utm_term=.c2e46387e6c1.

19. Rodney C. Ewing and Jeroen Ritsema, “Underestimating Nuclear Accident Risks: Why Are Rare Events So Common?,” Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, May 3, 2011, http://thebulletin.org/fukushima-what-dont-we-know/underestimating-nuclear-accident-risks-why-are-rare-events-so-common; “A Brief History of Nuclear Accidents Worldwide,” Union of Concerned Scientists, www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-power/nuclear-power-accidents/history-nuclear-accidents#.V_FWvJMrJBx.

20. Quoted in Miles Traer, “Fukushima Five Years Later: Stanford Nuclear Expert Offers Three Lessons from the Disaster,” Stanford News Service, March 4, 2016, http://news.stanford.edu/press-releases/2016/03/04/pr-fukushima-lessons-ewing-030416/.

21. The IAEA’s 2010 report finds that Japan operated 54 nuclear reactors. The United States had 104 reactors and France had 58. See “International Status and Prospects of Nuclear Power,” www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/np10.pdf.

22. Ewing, “Underestimating Nuclear Accident Risks.”

23. Minoura published his findings in respected scientific journals. Officials at the Tokyo Electric Power Company, which owns the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, were aware of his findings but dismissed them. Ewing, “Underestimating Nuclear Accident Risks.” See also “Scientist Warned of Tsunami Disaster in Japan,” PRI, January 17, 2012, www.pri.org/stories/2012-01-17/scientist-warned-tsunami-disaster-japan; “Nuclear Aftershocks,” Frontline, PBS, January 17, 2012, at 15:48–19:19, www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/nuclear-aftershocks/.

24. Alice Park, “A Cardiac Conundrum,” Harvard Magazine, March–April 2013, http://harvardmagazine.com/2013/03/a-cardiac-conundrum; Amy Beth Zegart, “What March Madness Tells Us About Forecasting,” Insights by Stanford Business, Stanford Graduate School of Business, March 18, 2013, www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/what-march-madness-tells-us-about-forecasting.

25. David S. Jones, Broken Hearts: The Tangled History of Cardiac Care (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2012).

26. Richard P. Feynman, “Cargo Cult Science,” commencement address, California Institute of Technology, June 14, 1974, http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm.

27. Richards J. Heuer, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (Center for the Study of Intelligence, CIA, 1999).

28. Norman Maier, “Reasoning in Humans I,” Journal of Comparative Psychology 10 (1930): 115–43, 10.1037/h0073232.

29. Atul Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right (New York: Henry Holt, 2009), 108.

30. Ibid., 150.

31. Irving L. Janis, Victims of Groupthink: A Psychological Study of Foreign Policy Decisions and Fiascoes (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1972).

32. Angela Wilkinson and Roland Kupers, “Living in the Futures,” Harvard Business Review, May 2013, https://hbr.org/2013/05/living-in-the-futures.

33. Pierre Wack, “Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead,” Harvard Business Review, September 1985, https://hbr.org/1985/09/scenarios-uncharted-waters-ahead.

34. Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View (New York: Doubleday, 1991), 7–9; Wack, “Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead.”

35. Wilkinson and Kupers, “Living in the Futures.” They note that scenario planning at Shell has not always been well supported or received.

36. Barbara Bilodeau and Darrell K. Rigby, “A Growing Focus on Preparedness,” Harvard Business Review, July–August 2007, https://hbr.org/2007/07/a-growing-focus-on-preparedness; Darrell Rigby and Barbara Bilodeau, “Management Tools and Trends 2015,” Bain & Company, June 10, 2015, www.bain.com/Images/BAIN_BRIEF_Management_Tools_2015.pdf.

37. Bilodeau and Rigby, “Management Tools and Trends.”

38. Pierre Wack, “Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids,” Harvard Business Review, November 1985, https://hbr.org/1985/11/scenarios-shooting-the-rapids; Schwartz, The Art of the Long View; Peter Schwartz, Learnings from the Long View (San Francisco: Global Business Network, 2011); Wack, “Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead.”

39. Schwartz, The Art of the Long View, xiii.

40. Ibid., p. 9; Pierre Wack, “Scenarios: The Gentle Art of Re-perceiving,” Shell International Petroleum Company, 1985.

41. Intel’s use of red teams from Rossi Sheffi, The Resilient Enterprise: Overcoming Vulnerability for Competitive Advantage (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2005), 53–55. Goldman Sachs’s use of red teams from Micah Zenko, Red Team: How to Succeed by Thinking Like the Enemy (New York: Basic Books, 2015), 178.

42. Red team cyber “penetration testing” is required for many large companies. As Micah Zenko writes, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act, and the Payment Card Industry Data Security Standard all require that companies use penetration testing to identify vulnerabilities and verify safeguards. Zenko, Red Team, 177–78.

43. For more on red team best practices and pitfalls, see Zenko, Red Team.

44. Jayson E. Street, “Breaking in Bad,” DEF CON 23 presentation, published December 11, 2015, www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vdvINDmlX8.

45. Ibid.; Zenko, Red Team, 202–6.

46. Street, “Breaking in Bad.” One national U.S. bank hired Street to test cyber security at ten West Coast branches. Posing as a technician needing to examine “power fluctuations,” Street was granted access throughout the first branch. He plugged in a small device called a Pwn Plug that looks like a power adapter but is actually a computer armed with hacking tools for remote access. After the fourth branch, Street says, the bank told him, “Stop now please. We give up.” Robert McMillan, “The Little White Box That Can Hack Your Network,” Wired, March 2, 2012, www.wired.com/2012/03/pwnie/.

47. Zenko, Red Team, 5.

48. Heuer, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, 71. See also Todd Conklin, Pre-Accident Investigations: An Introduction to Organizational Safety (Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2012); Deborah J. Mitchell, J. Edward Russo, and Nancy Pennington, “Back to the Future: Temporal Perspective in the Explanation of Events,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 2 (1989): 25–38.

49. A 1989 study by researchers at Wharton, Cornell, and the University of Colorado found that thinking backwards—what they call “prospective hindsight”—increased by 30 percent the ability to correctly identify reasons for future outcomes. Mitchell, Russo, and Pennington, “Back to the Future.”

50. Pope John Paul II ended the use of official devil’s advocates in the Catholic Church in 1983 to make the process faster and less adversarial. He produced more beatifications and canonizations in two decades than his 263 predecessors did over the previous two millennia. Zenko, Red Team, ix–xii; Rachel Martin and Ben Zimmer, “Who Is the ‘Devil’s’ Advocate,” NPR, March 3, 2013, www.npr.org/2013/03/03/173350724/who-is-the-devils-advocate.

51. Richard K. Betts, Surprise Attack: Lessons for Defense Planning (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1982); Alexander L. George and Eric K. Stern, “Harnessing Conflict in Foreign Policy Making: From Devil’s to Multiple Advocacy,” Presidential Studies Quarterly 32, no. 3 (September 2002): 484–508.

52. Jens Hansegard, “Building Risk Management at Lego,” Wall Street Journal, August 5, 2013.

53. We are grateful to Mary Driscoll from APQC for sharing this case study with us. APQC is a leading nonprofit organization that partners with more than five hundred global member organizations across all industries to improve business productivity. Case study from APQC, “Best Practices Report, Enterprise Risk Management: Seven Imperatives for Process Excellence,” 2014. See also Hansegard, “Building Risk Management at Lego”; Mark L. Frigo and Hans Læssøe, “Strategic Risk Management at the Lego Group,” Strategic Finance, February 2012.

54. Ibid.

55. Quoted in Hansegard, “Building Risk Management at Lego.”

56. Ibid.

57. Full disclosure: Phil Knight, the founder of Nike, came up with the idea for the company while he was attending business school at Stanford, and the business school today is named after him.

58. Mike Ozanian, “The Forbes Fab 40: The World’s Most Valuable Sports Brands 2015,” Forbes, October 22, 2015, www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2015/10/22/the-forbes-fab-40-the-most-valuable-brands-in-sports-2015/#51ea0fc22e2a.

59. Quoted in Shelly Banjo, “Inside Nike’s Struggle to Balance Cost and Worker Safety in Bangladesh,” Wall Street Journal, April 21, 2014, https://www.wsj.com/articles/inside-nikes-struggle-to-balance-cost-and-worker-safety-in-bangladesh-1398133855.

60. Quoted in ibid.

61. Ibid.

62. Quoted in ibid.

63. Ibid.

CHAPTER 8: THE NUCLEAR TRIAD, THE EMPTY PLANE, AND OTHER WAYS TO MITIGATE RISKS

1. Andrew Cave, “The $30,000-a-Night Jet That Flies Empty,” Forbes, August 29, 2016; “About FedEx,” FedEx website, http://about.van.fedex.com/our-story/company-structure/express-fact-sheet.

2. Ibid. FedEx also delivers 7.3 million packages daily to the United States and Canada by ground and offers a host of business logistics services.

3. Henry Samuel, “France Braced for Wave of Strikes over Labour Reform as Hollande Insists: ‘I Won’t Give In,’” Telegraph, May 17, 2016, www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/17/french-braces-for-wave-of-strikes-over-labour-reform-as-hollande/.

4. Quoted in Cave, “The $30,000-a-Night Jet That Flies Empty.” See also Karl E. Weick and Kathleen M. Sutcliffe, Managing the Unexpected: Resilient Performance in an Age of Uncertainty (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2007).

5. Bonny Harrison and Jeff Martinez, “Fueling E-commerce: FedEx Super Hub’s Physical Structure Powers Virtual Business,” FedEx Blog, August 1, 2016, http://about.van.fedex.com/blog/fueling-e-commerce-fedex-super-hubs-physical-structure-powers-virtual-business-2/.

6. Jeffrey F. Rayport, “The Miracle of Memphis,” MIT Technology Review, December 20, 2010, www.technologyreview.com/s/422081/the-miracle-of-memphis/; Harrison and Martinez, “Fueling E-commerce.”

7. Cave, “The $30,000-a-Night Jet That Flies Empty”; “About FedEx.”

8. Harrison and Martinez, “Fueling E-commerce”; Cave, “The $30,000-a-Night Jet That Flies Empty”; “About FedEx”; Rayport, “The Miracle of Memphis.”

9. “In Control, Around the Clock,” FedEx website, https://smallbusiness.fedex.com/global-operations-center.html.

10. Ibid.

11. Jason Douglas, “Every Plane Has a Name,” FedEx Blog, September 30, 2015, http://about.van.fedex.com/blog/every-plane-bears-a-name/; “FedEx Executive Leadership,” FedEx website, http://about.van.fedex.com/our-story/leadership/.

12. FedEx, “In Control, Around the Clock.”

13. Paul Tronsor, “Business Unusual: Flight Planning and the Iceland Volcano Eruption,” FedEx Blog, May 4, 2010, http://about.van.fedex.com/blog/business-unusual-flight-planning-and-the-iceland-volcano-eruption/.

14. “In Control, Around the Clock,” FedEx Updates, October 2015.

15. Ibid.

16. Brian Dumaine, “FedEx CEO Fred Smith on… Everything,” Fortune, May 11, 2012, http://fortune.com/2012/05/11/fedex-ceo-fred-smith-on-everything/.

17. Quoted in ibid.

18. Quoted in “Frederick W. Smith,” Academy of Achievement, interview, www.achievement.org/achiever/frederick-w-smith/#interview.

19. APQC, “Risk Management: Extreme Weather Increasingly Disrupts Global Supply Chains,” K04425, 2013, p. 2; Andrea J. Stroud, “Supply Chain Disruption: What Your Organization Should Know About Managing Risk in the Supply Chain,” APQC K04424, 2013. APQC is a member-based nonprofit and one of the leading proponents of benchmarking and best-practice business research. “Managing the Risk of Supply Chain Disruption,” May 2013 APQC Summary Report, www.apqc.org/knowledge-base/download/289037/K04362_Survey%20Summary%20Report-Finance%20and%20Supply%20Chain%20Risk.pdf.

20. IRM Security, Finally the Board Is Paying Attention to Cyber. Now What? 2016, http://info.irmsecurity.com/riskybusinessreport, p.8.

21. 2014 SeaWorld Annual Report, http://s1.q4cdn.com/392447382/files/doc_financials/Annual%20Reports/2014-SEAS-Annual-Report.pdf; Arthur Levine, “SeaWorld in 2017: New Coasters, Rides, and Shows to Turn the Tide,” USA Today, September 26, 2016, www.usatoday.com/story/travel/experience/america/theme-parks/2016/09/26/seaworld-new-coasters-rides-shows-2017/91129692/.

22. This point is debated. FBI cyber division chief Joseph Demarest and cyber security expert Kevin Mandia found that the Sony hack was the work of a sophisticated cyber adversary using malware that was undetectable by standard antivirus software.

23. Peter Elkind, “Inside the Hack of the Century,” Part 2, Fortune, June 25, 2015, http://fortune.com/sony-hack-part-two/; Sophie Curtis, “Sony Saved Thousands of Passwords in a Folder Named ‘Password,’” Telegraph, December 5, 2014, www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/sony/11274727/Sony-saved-thousands-of-passwords-in-a-folder-named-Password.html.

24. Peter Elkind, “Inside the Hack of the Century,” Part 1, Fortune, June 25, 2015, http://fortune.com/sony-hack-part-1/.

25. Ibid.

26. Nenad Pacek and Daniel Thorniley, Emerging Markets: Lessons for Business Success and the Outlook for Different Markets, 2nd ed. (London: The Economist in association with Profile Books, 2007), 44–45.

27. “Permian Basin,” Occidental Petroleum Company, www.oxy.com/OurBusinesses/OilandGas/UnitedStates/Permian/Pages/default.aspx.

28. We are grateful to Paul Bracken for drawing the parallels between U.S. nuclear strategy and businesses. See Bracken, The Second Nuclear Age: Strategy, Danger, and the New Power Politics (New York: Macmillan, 2012).

29. Meryl Gordon, “Howard Lutnick’s Second Life,” New York Magazine, December 10, 2001, http://nymag.com/nymetro/news/sept11/features/5486/index1.html.

30. Julia La Roche, “The Amazing and Heartbreaking Story of the CEO Who Lived and Rebuilt His Firm After 9/11: Howard Lutnick,” Business Insider, September 11, 2011, www.businessinsider.com/cantor-fitzgerald-9-11-story-howard-lutnick-2011-9.

31. Ivy Schmerken, “Cantor’s eSpeed System Rebounds, Replacing Voice Brokerage,” Wall Street & Technology, October 10, 2001, www.wallstreetandtech.com/careers/cantors-espeed-system-rebounds-replacing-voice-brokerage/d/d-id/1254841?.

32. Ibid.

33. Richard Blake, “Cantor Fitzgerald: Miracle on Wall Street,” Institutional Investor, September 3, 2009, www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/2287395/banking-and-capital-markets-banking/cantor-fitzgerald-miracle-on-wall-street.html#.WBJ_5JMrJBw; Susanne Craig, “The Survivor Who Saw the Future for Cantor Fitzgerald,” New York Times, September 3, 2011, http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/09/03/the-survivor-who-saw-the-future-for-cantor-fitzgerald/?_r=0.

34. Schmerken, “Cantor’s eSpeed System Rebounds.”

35. “Boeing 787 Dreamliner: A Timeline of Problems,” Telegraph, July 28, 2013, www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/comment/Boeing-787-Dreamliner-a-timeline-of-problems/; Nicola Clark, “Boeing Announces Delay in Deliveries of 787 Dreamliner,” New York Times, October 10, 2007, www.nytimes.com/2007/10/10/business/worldbusiness/10iht-boeing.4.7837959.html.

36. Gary S. Lynch, Single Point of Failure: The 10 Essential Laws of Supply Chain Risk Management (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2009), 188.

37. Yossi Sheffi, The Resilient Enterprise: Overcoming Vulnerability for Competitive Advantage (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2005), 184, citing Chris J. McDonald, “The Evolution of Intel’s Copy Exact! Technology Transfer Method,” Intel Technology Journal, 1998.

38. Stephen Prince, Classical Film Violence: Designing and Regulating Brutality in Hollywood Cinema, 1930–1968 (New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 2003).

39. Roxanna Guildrod-Blake, “It’s Time to Break Down Silos: Former NIRI President Points to FedEx as Model of IR, PR Integration,” Bulldog Reporter, July 29, 2010, www.bulldogreporter.com/its-time-break-down-silos-former-niri-president-points-fedex-model-ir-pr-integratio/.

40. Pacek and Thorniley, Emerging Markets, 40.

41. “MH17 Ukraine Plane Crash: What We Know,” BBC, September 28, 2016, www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28357880.

42. Ibid.; Alastair Jamieson, “Why Was Malaysia Airlines MH17 Flying over Ukraine? Time, Money,” NBC News, July 18, 2014, www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-plane-crash/why-was-malaysia-airlines-mh17-flying-over-ukraine-time-money-n159161.

43. “Mexico Travel Warning,” U.S. Department of State, October 10, 2014, http://travel.state.gov/content/passports/english/alertswarnings/mexico-travel-warning.html; “U.S. Relations with Mexico,” U.S. Department of State, September 10 2014, www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35749.htm.

44. “Crime in the United States: Uniform Crime Reports,” Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2013, www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/violent-crime/murder-topic-page/murdermain_final.

45. Kate Abbey-Lambertz, “These Are the Major U.S. Cities with the Highest Murder Rates, According to the FBI,” Huffington Post, November 12, 2014, www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/12/highest-murder-rate-us-cities-2013_n_6145404.html; Anthony Harrup, “Mexican Homicide Rate Fell 12.5% in 2013, Statistics Agency Says,” Wall Street Journal, July 24, 2014, http://online.wsj.com/articles/mexican-homicide-rate-fell-12-5-in-2013-statistics-agency-says-1406155624.

46. Betts, Surprise Attack: Lessons for Defense Planning (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1982), 91; William Bartsch, December 8, 1941: MacArthur’s Pearl Harbor (College Station: Texas A&M University Press, 2012), 409.

47. “Marriott Closes $13-Billion Purchase of Starwood to Become World’s Largest Hotel Chain,” Los Angeles Times, September 23, 2016, www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-marriott-starwood-20160923-snap-story.html.

48. Abdala and Archell, “Alcoa’s Juruti Mining Project Seeking to Set Sustainability Benchmark.”

49. Ibid.; Maylie, “Alcoa Invests Near Planned Mines.”

50. Walmart case abstracted from Daniel Diermeier, Reputation Rules: Strategies for Building Your Company’s Most Valuable Asset (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2011), 112–16; Renee Montagne, “Wal-Mart CEO Stepping Down After 9 Years,” NPR, January 30, 2009, www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=100049709.

51. Diermeier, Reputation Rules, 112–16.

52. Quoted in ibid., 114.

53. Ibid., 112–16.

54. Montagne, “Wal-Mart CEO Stepping Down After 9 Years.”

55. Diermeier, Reputation Rules, 112–16.

56. Montagne, “Wal-Mart CEO Stepping Down After 9 Years.”

57. Diermeier, Reputation Rules, 112–16.

58. Quote from Montagne, “Wal-Mart CEO Stepping Down After 9 Years.”

59. Herbert A. Simon, The Sciences of the Artificial (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1996); Herbert A. Simon, Reason in Human Affairs (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1983); William G. Chase and Herbert A. Simon, “Perception in Chess,” Cognitive Psychology 4, no. 1 (January 1973): 55–81; Roger Frantz, Two Minds: Intuition and Analysis in the History of Economic Thought (New York: Springer, 2005), 118.

60. Zegart, Flawed by Design (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1999), 229–30; Mark Bowden, “The Desert One Debacle,” Atlantic, May 2006, www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/05/the-desert-one-debacle/304803/.

61. Eugene Scott, “Carter: ‘I Wish I’d Sent One More Helicopter’ for U.S. Hostages in Iran,” CNN, August 20, 2015, www.cnn.com/2015/08/20/politics/jimmy-carter-iran-hostages/.

62. Zegart, Flawed by Design, 143, 229–30.

63. FedEx, “In Control, Around the Clock.”

64. Ibid.

65. Ibid.; Tronsor, “Business Unusual.”

66. Ibid.

CHAPTER 9: ZULU TIME

1. “Profile: Jemaah Islamiah,” BBC, February 2, 2012, www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-16850706; Alan Orlob, “Traveler Safety Is Everybody’s Business,” Forbes, January 6, 2015, www.forbes.com/sites/edfuller/2015/01/06/traveler-safety-is-everybodys-business/2/#5e9b3b1b29b1; Tom Wright, “Bombing Suspects Spent Two Days at Hotel,” Wall Street Journal, July 18, 2009, www.wsj.com/articles/SB124783405799057621.

2. CRS Report, “Terrorism in Southeast Asia,” Congressional Research Service 7-5700, October 16, 2009, www.fas.org/sgp/crs/terror/RL34194.pdf, p. 8.

3. Orlob, “Traveler Safety Is Everybody’s Business.”

4. Ibid.

5. Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism, “Country Reports on Terrorism 2009,” U.S. Department of State, August 5, 2010, www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2009/140884.htm.

6. Rich Roberts, “Marriott Tweets to Spread Word During Crisis,” Hotel News Now, August 3, 2009, www.hotelnewsnow.com/Articles/3279/Marriott-tweets-to-spread-word-during-crisis.

7. Marriott Sustainability Report, 2009, www.marriott.com/Multimedia/PDF/CorporateResponsibility/Marriott_Sustainability_Report_2009.pdf, p. 5.

8. Alan Orlob, “Protecting Soft Targets: How Marriott International Deals with the Threat of Terrorism Overseas,” in The McGraw-Hill Homeland Security Handbook, ed. David Kamien (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2005), 861–72.

9. Ibid.

10. Their security protections had been ratcheted even higher to incorporate lessons learned from earlier attacks. Keith Bradsher, “Deadly Car Bombing Shakes Marriott Hotel in Jakarta,” New York Times, August 5, 2003, www.nytimes.com/2003/08/05/international/asia/deadly-car-bombing-shakes-marriott-hotel-in-jakarta.html; “JW Marriott Hotel Bombing,” GlobalSecurity.org, www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/marriot.htm.

11. Orlob, “Protecting Soft Targets.”

12. NTDTV, “Security Under Scurtiny for Jakarta Hotels,” YouTube, July 25, 2009, www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKakvJcwO2A.

13. APPEL News Staff, “Understanding Near-Misses at NASA,” Academy of Program/Project and Engineering Leadership, NASA, February 26, 2010, http://appel.nasa.gov/2010/02/26/ao_1-12_understanding-html/.

14. Indeed, some research finds that people engage in riskier behavior after near-miss events. See Robin L. Dillon and Catherine H. Tinsley, “Interpreting Near-Miss Events,” Engineering Management Journal 17, no. 4 (2005); Dillon and Tinsley, “How Near-Misses Influence Decisions Making Under Risk: A Missed Opportunity for Learning,” Management Science 54, no. 8 (June 2008): 1425–40; Catherine H. Tinsley, Robin L. Dillon, and Peter M. Madsen, “How to Avoid Catastrophe,” Harvard Business Review, April 2011, https://hbr.org/2011/04/how-to-avoid-catastrophe.

15. Tinsley, Dillon, and Madsen, “How to Avoid Catastrophe.”

16. Apple case from ibid.

17. Ibid.

18. Chapters III and IV of “Report of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident,” Rogers Commission Report (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1986), 157–336, available at https://er.jsc.nasa.gov/seh/explode.html.

19. Rogers Commission Report, 92.

20. AmericaSpace, “Missed Warnings: The Fatal Flaws Which Doomed Challenger,” Space Safety Magazine, January 28, 2014, www.spacesafetymagazine.com/space-disasters/challenger-disaster/missed-warnings-fatal-flaws-doomed-challenger/.

21. “Engineer Who Opposed Challenger Launch Offers Personal Look at Tragedy,” NASA, October 5, 2012, www.nasa.gov/centers/langley/news/researchernews/rn_Colloquium1012.html.

22. “Report to the President by the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident,” NASA, June 6, 1986, http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/outreach/SignificantIncidents/assets/rogers_commission_report.pdf, p. 149.

23. Weick and Sutcliffe, Managing the Unexpected, 24.

24. “USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70),” Navy Site, http://navysite.de/cvn/cvn70.html; information from USS Vinson public affairs office.

25. “Heathrow Airport,” Optics and Media Access, http://optimediacc.com/airport-heathrow.php.

26. Kyle Mizokami, “Here Is Every Aircraft Carrier in the World,” Popular Mechanics, January 25, 2016, www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/g2412/a-global-roundup-of-aircraft-carriers/.

27. See Weick and Sutcliffe, Managing the Unexpected, for more on planning for failure and responding strongly to weak signals.

28. Ibid.

29. Charles Goldsmith, “EU Agrees to Block Merger of Boeing, McDonnell-Douglas,” Wall Street Journal, July 7, 1997, www.wsj.com/articles/SB868213225416324500; “Brussels v Boeing,” Economist, July 17, 1997, www.economist.com/node/151796.

30. Goldsmith, “EU Agrees to Block Merger of Boeing, McDonnell-Douglas.”

31. BP contracted the Deepwater Horizon rig, which was owned and operated by Transocean. A third company, Halliburton, was contracted for cementing and other drilling services.

32. Scientists and analysts are still assessing the long-term environmental impact of the spill. Chelsea Harvey, “The Deepwater Horizon Spill May Have Caused ‘Irreversible’ Damage to Gulf Coast Marshes,” Washington Post, September 27, 2016, www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/09/27/the-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-may-have-caused-irreversible-damage-to-marshes-along-the-gulf-coast/?utm_term=.3550e88324a9; Jacqueline Fiore, Craig Bond, and Shanthi Nataraj, Estimating the Effects of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill on Fisheries Landings: A Preliminary Exploration, RAND Report WR-1173-GMA, December 14, 2016.

33. Devlin Barrett, “U.S., BP Finalize $20.8 Billion Deepwater Oil Spill Settlement,” Wall Street Journal, www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-says-20-8-billion-bp-spill-settlement-finalized-1444058619.

34. These included violations of existing government regulations; lagging government and industry safety standards and unclear guidelines as offshore drilling grew more technically challenging; unclear management responsibilities between BP (the well owner), Transocean (the rig owner/operator), and Halliburton (the cement and drilling contractor); poor maintenance of electrical equipment that may have ignited the explosion; bypassed gas alarms and automatic shutdown systems; training deficiencies; and a flawed safety management system and culture on board Deepwater Horizon.

35. Ian Urbina, “In Gulf, It Was Unclear Who Was in Charge of Rig,” New York Times, June 5, 2010, www.nytimes.com/2010/06/06/us/06rig.html?scp=1&sq=at%20issue%20in%20gulf&st=cse.

36. James David Dykes, Co-Chair, USCG/BOEMRE Joint Investigation into the Deepwater Horizon/Macondo Well Blowout, testimony before the United States House of Representatives Committee on Natural Resources, Oversight Hearing on the BOEMRE/U.S. Coast Guard Joint Investigation Team Report, October 13, 2011, p. 9.

37. Urbina, “In Gulf, It Was Unclear Who Was in Charge of Rig.”

38. Michael R. Bromwich, Director, Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, United States Department of the Interior, testimony to the United States House of Representatives Committee on Natural Resources, oversight hearing on BOEMRE/U.S. Coast Guard Joint Investigation Team Report Part I, October 13, 2011.

39. Urbina, “In Gulf, It Was Unclear Who Was in Charge of Rig.” See also United States House of Representatives, Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, hearing on the Role of BP in the Deepwater Horizon Explosion and Oil Spill, June 17, 2010, p. 14.

40. Sheila McNulty, “Documents Hint at BP Planning Failures,” Financial Times, August 26, 2010, www.ft.com/content/752b1c32-b16f-11df-b899-00144feabdc0?mhq5j=e1; United States House of Representatives, Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, hearing on the Role of BP in the Deepwater Horizon Explosion and Oil Spill, June 17, 2010, pp. 99, 109.

41. The results were discussed among members of the crew, and a second test was ordered. This second test was successful, so BP and Transocean officials decided to ignore the first test, explaining the pressure readings as a “bladder effect.” According to the Coast Guard Joint Inquiry, the crew continued to overlook “a number of different anomalies” for the next sixty to ninety minutes that should have signaled the influx of leaking hydrocarbons up the wellbore, through the riser, and onto the rig. Michael R. Bromwich, Director, Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, United States Department of the Interior, testimony to the United States House of Representatives Committee on Natural Resources, oversight hearing on BOEMRE/U.S. Coast Guard Joint Investigation Team Report Part I, October 13, 2011.

42. BP, Deepwater Horizon Accident Investigation Report, September 8, 2010, www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/sustainability/issue-reports/Deepwater_Horizon_Accident_Investigation_Report.pdf, p. 89.

43. Committee on the Analysis of Causes of the Deepwater Horizon Explosion, Fire, and Oil Spill to Identify Measures to Prevent Similar Accidents in the Future, National Academy of Engineering and National Research Council, Interim Report on Causes of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Rig Blowout and Ways to Prevent Such Events (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2010), 10. In addition, the report, and a second investigation conducted by the U.S. Coast Guard, found that the Deepwater Horizon crew disabled or circumvented other systems designed to generate signals of possible disaster. These included bypassing an automatic shutdown system intended to prevent flammable gas from reaching ignition sources. The chief electrician was told by a crew member that it had “been in bypass for five years” and that “the entire fleet runs them in bypass.” Had it been activated, the engine room explosion might have been prevented. See also U.S. Coast Guard, Report of Investigation into the Circumstances Surrounding the Explosion, Fire, Sinking, and Loss of Eleven Crew Members Aboard the Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico April 20-22, 2010, vol. I, MISLE Activity Number 3721503, pp. 26–27.

44. James David Dykes, Co-Chair, USCG/BOEMRE Joint Investigation into the Deepwater Horizon/Macondo Well Blowout, testimony before the United States House of Representatives Committee on Natural Resources, oversight hearing on the BOEMRE/U.S. Coast Guard Joint Investigation Team Report Part I, October 13, 2011, pp. 7–8.

45. Alan Orlob, “Lessons from the Mumbai Terrorist Attacks,” Part II, Testimony to HSGAC, January 28, 2009.

46. Weick and Sutcliffe, Managing the Unexpected, 47.

47. Howard Berkes, “30 Years After Explosion, Challenger Engineer Still Blames Himself,” NPR, January 28, 2016, www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/01/28/464744781/30-years-after-disaster-challenger-engineer-still-blames-himself.

48. Challenger Commission Report, p. 102.

49. Berkes, “30 Years After Explosion.”

50. Howard Berkes, “Challenger: Reporting a Disaster’s Cold, Hard Facts,” NPR, January 28, 2006, www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5175151.

51. Martin Landau and Donald Chisholm, “The Arrogance of Optimism: Notes on Failure-Avoidance Management,” Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management 3, no. 2 (June 1995): 67–80, at 77.

52. Darcy Steeg Morris, Cornell National Social Survey 2009 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Survey Research Institute, 2009).

53. One high explosives researcher found that every time an experiment failed, colleagues lined up outside his door offering their assessments about what went wrong. Some of this information could be discovered only in retrospect, but much of it was available beforehand. The researcher began holding “premortem” meetings to surface ideas about potential failures before they occurred. Todd Conklin, Pre-Accident Investigations: An Introduction to Organizational Safety (Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2012). Psychologist Gary Klein, who has written extensively about premortems, noted in an interview, “The premortem technique is a sneaky way to get people to do contrarian, devil’s advocate thinking without encountering resistance… The logic is that instead of showing people that you are smart because you can come up with a good plan, you show you’re smart by thinking of insightful reasons why this project might go south.” Interview with Gary Klein and Daniel Kahneman, “Strategic Decisions: When Can You Trust Your Gut?,” McKinsey Quarterly, March 2010, www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategic-decisions-when-can-you-trust-your-gut.

54. Brad Tuttle, “Warren Buffett’s Boring, Brilliant Wisdom,” Time, March 1, 2010.

55. Howard Markel, “How the Tylenol Murders of 1982 Changed How We Consume Medication,” PBS NewsHour, September 29, 2014, www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/tylenol-murders-1982/; Jerry Knight, “Tylenol’s Maker Shows How to Respond to Crisis,” Washington Post, October 11, 1982, www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1982/10/11/tylenols-maker-shows-how-to-respond-to-crisis/bc8df898-3fcf-443f-bc2f-e6fbd639a5a3/.

56. Knight, “Tylenol’s Maker Shows How to Respond to Crisis”; Tamar Lewin, “Tylenol Posts an Apparent Recovery,” New York Times, December 25, 1982, www.nytimes.com/1982/12/25/business/tylenol-posts-an-apparent-recovery.html; Judith Rehak and International Herald Tribune, “Tylenol Made a Hero of Johnson & Johnson: The Recall That Started Them All,” New York Times, March 23, 2002, www.nytimes.com/2002/03/23/your-money/tylenol-made-a-hero-of-johnson-johnson-the-recall-that-started.html.

57. Diermeier, Reputation Rules, 11; Lawrence G. Foster, “The Johnson & Johnson Credo and the Tylenol Crisis,” New Jersey Bell Journal 6, no. 1 (1983); Michael Useem, The Leadership Moment (New York: Three Rivers Press, 1998), also calls it the most covered news story since JFK assassination.

58. CEO James E. Burke carried the message personally, appearing on 60 Minutes.

59. Berge, The First 24 Hours; Diermeier, Reputation Rules, 11.

60. Diermeier, Reputation Rules, 11.

61. Rehak, “Tylenol Made a Hero of Johnson & Johnson.”

62. Ibid.

63. See Paresh Dave, “Here’s Why Companies Leave You in the Dark About Hacks for Months,” Los Angeles Times, June 15, 2016, www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-tn-cyberattack-simulation-20160615-snap-story.html.

64. To add insult to injury, Target at the time was an industry leader in cyber security, with state-of-the-art malware detection and a security operations center staffed with more than three hundred analysts.

65. Jim Hammerand, “Target’s Redcard Login Website Crashes After Data Breach,” Minneapolis/St. Paul Business Journal, www.bizjournals.com/twincities/news/2013/12/19/target-red-card-login-site-crashes.html.

66. Jure Leskovec, Lars Backstrom, and Jon Kleinberg, “Meme-Tracking and the Dynamics of the News Cycle,” ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, Paris, June 28–July 1, 2009, cited in Diermeier, Reputation Rules, 41, note 60.

67. Diermeier, Reputation Rules, 43, citing Philip E. Tetlock, Orie V. Kristel, S. Beth Elson, Melanie C. Green, and Jennifer S. Lerner, “The Psychology of the Unthinkable: Taboo Trade-Offs, Forbidden Base Rates and Heretical Counterfactuals,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 78, no. 5 (2000): 853–70.

68. Thomas Moore, “The Fight to Save Tylenol,” Fortune, November 29, 1982. See also Glen M. Broom and Bey-Ling Sha, Cutlip and Center’s Effective Public Relations, 11th ed. (New York: Pearson, 2013), 20.

69. Orlob, “Protecting Soft Targets.”

70. Diermeier, Reputation Rules.

71. Quoted in “Tylenol and the Legacy of J&J’s James Burke,” Knowledge@Wharton, University of Pennsylvania, October 2, 2012, http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/tylenol-and-the-legacy-of-jjs-james-burke/.

72. Moore, “The Fight to Save Tylenol.”

73. Quoted in Rehak, “Tylenol Made a Hero of Johnson & Johnson.”

74. Richard C. Boothman et al., “A Better Approach to Medical Malpractice Claims?,” Journal of Health & Life Sciences Law 2, no. 2 (January 2009); Kevin Sack, “Doctors Say ‘I’m Sorry’ Before ‘See You in Court,’” New York Times, May 18, 2008, www.nytimes.com/2008/05/18/us/18apology.html; Michael S. Wood and Jason Starr, Healing Words: The Power of Apology in Medicine (Oak Park, IL: Doctors in Touch, 2007).

75. Munoz is not alone. In the fall of 2016, Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf appeared before the Senate Banking Committee over a fraud scandal, attracted bipartisan ire for his tone-deaf testimony, and later lost his job. Jeffrey A. Sonnenfield, “How Wells Fargo’s CEO Could Have Avoided His Senate Belly Flop,” Yale Insights, Yale School of Management, September 23, 2016, http://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/how-wells-fargos-ceo-could-have-avoided-his-senate-belly-flop; Matt Egan, Jackie Wattles, and Cristina Alesci, “Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf Is Out,” CNN, October 12, 2016, http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/12/investing/wells-fargo-ceo-john-stumpf-retires/.

76. Matt Rosoff, “United CEO Doubles Down in Email to Employees, Says Passenger Was ‘Disruptive and Belligerent,’” CNBC, April 10, 2017, www.cnbc.com/2017/04/10/united-ceo-passenger-disruptive-belligerent.html.

77. Quoted in Julie Creswell and Sapna Maheshwari, “United Grapples with PR Crisis over Videos of Man Being Dragged Off Plane,” New York Times, April 11, 2017, www.nytimes.com/2017/04/11/business/united-airline-passenger-overbooked-flights.html.

78. Creswell and Maheshwaria, “United Grapples with PR Crisis.”

79. “Honesty/Ethics in Professions,” Gallup poll, 2015, www.gallup.com/poll/1654/honesty-ethics-professions.aspx.

80. “Tylenol and the Legacy of J&J’s James Burke.”

81. Alex Kirkpatrick, “A FedEx Driver Will Keep Job After Saving Flag from Burning,” KCCI Des Moines, January 28, 2017, www.kcci.com/article/a-fedex-driver-will-keep-job-after-saving-flag-from-burning/8644721.

82. Katie Fratie, “FedEx Releases Statement on Driver Who Saved an American Flag from Being Burned,” Daily Caller, January 27, 2017, dailycaller.com/2017/01/29/fedex-releases-statement-on-driver-who-saved-an-american-flag-from-being-burned/.

83. “2014 Social CEO Report,” CEO.com, www.ceo.com/social-ceo-report-2014/.

84. Rohan Gunaratna, “Marriott in Flames: The Attack on the World’s ‘Most Protected’ Hotel,” Insite Blog on Terrorism and Extremism, http://news.siteintelgroup.com/blog/index.php/about-us/21-jihad/52-marriott.

85. Diermeier, Reputation Rules, 72.

86. Reuters, “BP CEO Apologizes for ‘Thoughtless’ Oil Spill Comment,” June 2, 2010, www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-spill-bp-apology-idUSTRE6515NQ20100602.

87. Elizabeth Shogren, “BP: A Textbook Example of How Not to Handle PR,” NPR, April 21, 2011.

88. Lisa Myers, “BP Goes on PR Offensive,” NBC Nightly News, June 3, 2010, www.nbcnews.com/video/nightly-news/37499024#58503439.

89. Ibid.

90. Elizabeth Shogren, “BP: A Textbook Example of How Not to Handle PR.”

91. “Facing Congressional Wrath, BP Chief Apologizes for Oil Disaster,” Fox News, June 17, 2010, www.foxnews.com/us/2010/06/17/bp-ceo-tell-congress-hes-devastated-spill.html.

92. Rowena Mason, “BP’s Tony Hayward Resigns After Being ‘Demonised and Vilified’ in the US,” Telegraph, July 27, 2010, www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/7912338/BPs-Tony-Hayward-resigns-after-being-demonised-and-vilified-in-the-US.html.

93. Report of Columbia Accident Investigation Board, Volume 1, August, 26, 2003, http://s3.amazonaws.com/akamai.netstorage/anon.nasa-global/CAIB/CAIB_lowres_chapter6.pdf, chapter 6, p. 122. See also Ben Paynter, “Close Calls Are Near Disasters, Not Lucky Breaks,” Wired, August 14, 2012.

94. James G. March, “Exploration and Exploitation in Organizational Learning,” Organization Science 2, no. 1 (February 1991): 71–87.

95. Ibid., 85.

96. Marina Krakovsky, “Charles O’Reilly: Why Some Companies Seem to Last Forever,” Insights by Stanford Business, Stanford Graduate School of Business, May 31, 2013, www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/charles-oreilly-why-some-companies-seem-last-forever.

97. “Patients Versus Profits at Johnson & Johnson: Has the Company Lost Its Way?,” Knowledge@Wharton, University of Pennsylvania, February 15, 2012, http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/patients-versus-profits-at-johnson-johnson-has-the-company-lost-its-way/.

98. Ibid.

99. Erika Fry, “Can Big Still Be Beautiful?,” Fortune, July 22, 2016, http://fortune.com/johnson-and-johnson-global-500/.

100. David Voreacos, Alex Nussbaum, and Greg Farrel, “Johnson & Johnson Reaches for a Band-Aid,” NBC News, April 3, 2011, http://www.nbcnews.com/id/42383262/ns/business-us_business/t/johnson-johnson-reaches-band-aid/.

101. Jonathan D. Rickoff and Joann S. Lublin, “J&J CEO Weldon Is Out,” Wall Street Journal, February 22, 2012, www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970204909104577237642041667180.

102. Quoted in “Patients Versus Profits at Johnson & Johnson.”

103. Fry, “Can Big Still Be Beautiful?”

104. Rockoff and Lublin, “J&J CEO Weldon Is Out.”

105. Fry, “Can Big Still Be Beautiful?”

106. Tanya Gazdik, “Johnson & Johnson Struggles with Brand Image,” Marketing Daily, May 26, 2016, www.mediapost.com/publications/article/276722/johnson-johnson-struggles-with-brand-image.html.

107. Landau and Chisholm, “The Arrogance of Optimism,” 75.

108. Ibid., 76.

109. Matt Miller, “Breaking Down the Jim Harbaugh Blueprint for Success,” Bleacher Report, September 25, 2012, http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1347305-breaking-down-the-jim-harbaugh-blueprint-for-success.

110. Samuel Chi, “Jim Harbaugh Engineering Another Big Turnaround at Michigan,” SFGate, September 27, 2015, www.sfgate.com/collegesports/article/Jim-Harbaugh-engineering-another-big-turnaround-6533638.php.

111. Taylor Price, “You Never Stay the Same,” News, San Francisco 49ers, September 14, 2011, www.49ers.com/news/article-2/You-Never-Stay-the-Same/4b2f244d-76be-46dd-8602-f88e7f54a081.