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Index

Page numbers beginning with 439 refer to end notes.

Abbasi-Davani, Fereydoun, 62

Abdallah, King of Saudi Arabia, 78, 249, 318

Abu Dhabi, 88–89

Acheson, Dean, 71, 333, 370

Addis Ababa, 91

Afghanistan, 10, 121–22, 157

Mashad area of, 17

mountainous terrain of, 5

Northern Alliance in, 241

Taliban rule of, 17, 114

2001 Taliban eviction in, 241

Afghanistan War (2001–), xiv, 26, 114, 153, 268–69, 372

drawdown of U.S. troops in, 304

as Operation Enduring Freedom, 244, 406

U.S. invasion in, 116

U.S. troops killed in, 32–33, 65, 270

winding down of, 356

Africa, 209, 283

Aghazadeh-Khoi, Gholamreza, 37

Ahmadinejad, Mahmud, 33, 135–37, 387

cabinet of, 21

destruction of Israel supported by, 15

erratic leadership style of, 19, 31, 366

Khameini condemnation of, 13

nuclear program and, 42–43, 50, 58, 193

presidency of, 13, 42–43, 50, 366

2009 reelection of, 19

U.S. relations with, 22

Air Force, Israel, 144

Air Force, U.S., 42, 78, 144, 220–21, 268, 314, 345

fighters and strike planes of, 231–32, 345

foreign bases of, 247–48, 355–56

Albright, David, 196–99

Alevras-Chen, Maria, 245

Ali, Ben, 318, 368

al-Kibar reactor destruction, 184, 195, 247, 398, 399

al-Qa’ida, 45, 247, 287, 292, 369

counterterrorism against, 318, 330

Iranian support of, 29, 30

Saudi support of, 69

Sunnis in, 70

al-Qa’ida in Iraq, 30

Amangah, Abol-Ghassam, 16

Amano, Yukiya, 203

American Enterprise Institute Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, 158

Amrollahi, Reza, 37

Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, 135

Ankara, 92–94, 350

Annan, Kofi, 244

Ansar-e Hizballah, 20, 242

Ansari, Ali, 13

anti-Semitism, 30, 70

anti-Zionism, 30

Arabian Sea, 146, 232

Arabic language, 15, 24, 85

Arab-Israel conflict, 211, 259, 295, 300–301, 389

Iranian involvement in, 11, 26, 286

Palestinian issue in, 15, 26, 95, 163, 204, 213

peace process in, 127, 286

Saudi involvement in, 86–87

wars of, 74, 81, 87, 90, 183, 210, 212, 298, 317, 322–23, 352, 457

Arab League, 250

Arab oil embargo of 1973, 363

Arab Spring, 20, 26, 27, 32, 317–19, 398, 410, 444

economic and social dilemmas of, 95–96

emergence of Arab public opinion in, 96

Iranian nuclear threat and, 79–80, 95

regional impact of, 95–97, 171, 462

Arad, Uzi, 148–49

Arak plutonium plant, 36–37, 39, 48–50, 192, 198

Arbabsiar, Mansour J., 24, 30–35, 174, 217, 259, 273, 304, 305, 335

Argentina, 42, 78, 98, 99, 376, 417

Armed Forces, U.S., 313

ABLE ARCHER 83 military exercise of, 307–8

low-intensity conflict (LIC) skills of, 319–20

see also specific armed forces

Arms and Influence (Schelling), 77

Army, U.S., 77, 270, 345

82nd Airborne Division of, 267

101st Air Assault Division of, 267

173rd Airborne Brigade of, 267

Asad, Bashar al-, 26, 92–93, 398, 417

Asaib ahl al-Haq, 319

Ashkenazi, Gabi, 306

Athens, 282

Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, 37, 62

Attiyah, Khalid bin Mohamed al-, 250

Australia, 98, 130

B-1 bomber, 231

B-2 bomber, 231–32, 234

B-52 bomber, 231–32

Baghdad, 10, 50, 69, 199, 266, 268, 308

Baghdad Pact of 1955, 351

Bahrain, 28, 29, 70, 84, 95, 231, 247, 314, 317, 342, 348

civil unrest in, 346

Iranian aid to Shi’a opposition in, 12, 15, 32, 65, 78, 79, 316

Saudi proposal of union with, 15, 441

Saudi support for Sunni royal family of, 15

Bakhtiar, Shapour, 170

Balkans, 11, 93, 265

Barak, Ehud, 141, 199

Barnea, Nahum, 215

Barzani, Mas’ud, 93

Bashir, Tahseen, 92

Basij militia, 20, 242

Beijing, 99, 124, 365

Beirut, l, 68

Iranian attacks on, 72

U.S. Embassy in, 285

Belarus, 365

Bellinger, John, 245–46

Ben-Gurion, David, 89–90

Bergman, Ronen, 209

Berlin, 68

Mykonos restaurant in, 25

1948 crisis in, 328, 332

1961 crisis in, 298, 322, 339

Berra, Yogi, 44

bin Laden, Osama, 69, 346

bin Zayed, Muhammad, 249–50

Biological Warfare (BW), 68

Boroujerdi, Alaeddin, 144

Bosnia, 237, 251, 270, 271

Bracken, Paul, 302, 307, 329–30, 332, 462–63

Brannan, Paul, 196–99

Brazil, 42, 98, 99, 417, 418

British Petroleum (BP), 135

Brodie, Bernard, 297–98, 325–26

Brookings Institution, 136, 158–59, 181, 273

Saban Center at, 197, 205, 218, 236, 260

Bulgaria, 29, 149, 208

Bundy, McGeorge, 322

Bush, George Herbert Walker, 62–63, 139, 153, 251–53, 285–86, 288, 353

coalition for Persian Gulf War built by, 252, 257

Husayn plot against, 67, 305

Iraq War invasion opposed by, 308

Bush, George W., 45, 71, 98, 128, 152, 202, 251–53, 269, 302

decision to invade Iraq by, xv, 252, 270, 308, 372, 406, 449

Iran policy of, 114, 121–22, 127, 130, 140, 144, 145, 172, 206, 221, 246, 286–88, 372

2002 State of the Union address of, 122

Bushehr power plant, 41, 192

Cairo, 89–91

Cambodia:

U.S. bombing of, 247

Vietnamese invasion of, 78

Canada, 127, 130, 178

Caribbean Sea, 273, 356

Carter, Jimmy, 71, 113–14, 160, 169–70, 283, 284

Caucasus, 93, 247–48

CBS News/New York Times poll, 256

Ceause_cu, Nicolai, 368

Central Asia, 10, 27, 60, 247–48, 268

Central Command, U.S., 218

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), 23, 31, 51, 63, 68, 147–49, 169, 170, 234, 239, 245

Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), 351

Chamberlain, Neville, 387

Chávez, Hugo, 301

Cheney, Dick, 308

Chen Xiaodong, 249

Chicago Council of Global Affairs 2012 survey, 256

China, 34, 56, 78, 87, 90, 99, 359, 365

“Cultural Revolution” in, 75

economy of, 362

Foreign Ministry of, 249

Iranian nuclear program aided by, 39

Iranian trade with, 134

Korean War and, 77

nuclear arsenal of, 35, 75–76, 80, 98, 293, 329, 375, 418

oil needs of, 127

sanctions opposed by, 61, 138, 227

Soviet clashes with, 75–76, 298

Tiananmen Square incident in, 286

U.S. relations with, 77, 124–25, 154, 286, 372

U.S. strike on Iran opposed by, 244, 246, 254

Chirac, Jacques, 129

Christians, 30, 70

Maronite, 26

Chubin, Shahram, 5, 62, 352, 378

Chun Doo-Hwan, 368

Churchill, Winston, 8, 300

Civil War, U.S., 228, 418

Clapper, James, 62

Clausewitz, Carl von, 243

Clawson, Patrick, 252

Clinton, Bill, 139, 153, 407, 491–92

Dual Containment policy of, 286–87, 288, 290, 372, 494

failed rapprochement with Iran by, 8, 287

Iraq attacked by, 305

sanctioning of Iran by, 115, 130

CNN, 197

CNN/ORC International poll, 257

Cold War, xix, 66, 71, 77, 128, 146, 208, 281–83, 289, 293, 297, 302, 312–13

deterrence theory of, 320

lessons of, 307–8, 326, 331–32, 344–46, 419

“lines in the sand” concept in, 333

“mutual assured destruction” (MAD) strategy of, 298, 347

U.S. victory in, 347

Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), 146

communism, 315

fall of, 286

Congress, U.S., 117, 247, 286, 354; see also Senate, U.S.

Congressional Research Service, 235

Conoco, 115, 324

containment, see Iran, proposed containment of

Cordesman, Anthony, 195–96, 233–34

Cuba, 145, 166, 283, 301, 322, 367, 371

Cuban Missile Crisis, 145, 166, 283, 298, 308, 322, 328–29, 339, 340, 367, 408, 501

cyberwarfare, 29, 189

Flame virus, 148, 469–70

by Iran, 29, 85, 148–50, 180, 217, 259–60, 271–72, 460, 470

against Iranian nuclear program, 33, 38, 71, 148–50, 217, 273, 321, 470

Stuxnet virus, 148

Cyrus the Great, 10

Damascus, 211

Darkhovin power plant, 41

de Gramont, Diane, 280–81

Dehaf Institute, 213–14

democracy, 80, 96, 114, 152, 159, 169–71, 368

Democratic Party, 122

Dempsey, Martin, 197

Denmark, 127

Dhahran, 68, 85316

Diego Garcia island, 231, 268, 345

Dolphin submarines, 388

Donnelly, Thomas, 281, 322, 407

Drezner, Daniel W., 152

drones (unmanned aerial vehicles), 231–33, 247

Drug Enforcement Administration, U.S., 24

Druse, 27

Eastern Europe, 166, 371

communist dictatorships overthrown in, 20, 315, 368, 385

Ebtekar, Massoumeh, 163

Edelman, Eric, 315

Egypt, 26, 27, 79

Iran and, 90–92

Israel and, 90, 323

Mubarak rule in, 91, 318

nuclear program of, 89–92, 98, 110

political upheaval in, 317

Egyptian army, 90

Eisenhower, Dwight D., 71, 77, 345

Eisenstadt, Michael, 58

Eitan, Rafi, 196

Eizenstat, Stuart, 152

ElBaradei, Mohamed, 250

elections, Iran:

of 1948, 169

of 1952, 169

of 1997, 19, 175, 176, 287

of 2009, 19–21, 123, 174, 442

elections, Israel, of 2013, 213, 215

elections, U.S.:

of 2008, 122, 255

of 2012, 123, 255

Entebbe airport hostage crisis, 193–94

Erdogan, Recep Tayyip, 92–93, 126

“neo-Ottoman” policy of, 92

Esfahan nuclear plant, 40, 189, 192, 198–99, 232, 314

European Union (EU), 93, 117, 130, 132, 156, 178, 219, 244, 386

Evron, Yair, 306–7

F-14 aircraft, 191

F-15 aircraft, 183, 189, 191, 192–93, 199, 231

F-16 aircraft, 87, 189, 191, 199, 231

F-18 aircraft, 231

F-22 aircraft, 231, 232, 321, 388

F-35 aircraft, 388

F-117 aircraft, 231

Fabius, Laurent, 54–55

Faisal, Prince Turki al-, 250

Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi, Mohsen, 52–53

Falklands, 78

Farouk, King of Egypt, 90

Farsi language, 7, 24

Fatah, 26

Federation of American Scientists Iran Project, 196

Finland, 77

Fordow nuclear plant, 42–43, 45–46, 49–50, 143–44, 189, 192–93, 195, 197–99, 231–34

Foreign Policy Institute 2012 National Survey, 256

Fox News survey, 256

France, 34, 45, 54–55, 77, 90, 125–26, 292, 349, 419

independent foreign policy of, 128–29

intelligence agencies of, 51

Iranian relations with, 41–42, 150

nuclear arsenal of, 35, 64, 83, 94

U.S. relations with, 129

Franco, Francisco, 368

Gaddis, John Lewis, 370–71

Gallup poll of 2012, 162

Gantz, Benny, 306

Gates, Robert, 197

Gatilov, Gennady, 138

Gaza, 27, 210, 215

rockets fired on Israel from, 211–12

Georgia, 29, 208

Gerecht, Reuel, 236, 338–39

Germany, 45, 125–26, 292, 497

intelligence agencies in, 51

Iranian relations with, 41–42

Germany, Imperial, 228, 419

Germany, Nazi, 237, 300

Glaspie, April, 339

Gordievsky, Oleg, 308

Greco-Persian Wars, 282

Green Revolution of 2009, 19–22, 159, 177, 240–41, 386, 396

crushing of, 20–22, 123–24, 171, 172, 174, 236–37, 240

leaders of, 161, 174

street demonstrations in, 19–20

Western support for, 149, 167

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, 89, 147, 248, 285, 291–93, 295, 352

“balancing” behavior of, 341–44

Iranian threat to, 338, 341–50, 378

military capabilities of, 347–50, 353–58

selling U.S. arms to, 321, 358

Gulf emirates, 11, 26, 28, 89

oil exports of, 25

Guzansky, Yoel, 57, 141

Haaretz (Israel), 306

Haass, Richard, 112–13, 152

Halevy, Efraim, 196

Hamas, 27, 28, 110

clash of Israel and, 317

Iranian support of, 26, 30, 173, 207–11, 258–59

Sunni fundamentalists of, 319

Hayden, Michael, 202, 234–35, 239

Healey, Dennis, 353

Helms, Jesse, 158

Helsinki, 77

Helsinki Accords of 1975, 166

Henry II, King of England, 166

Hiroshima bombing, 36, 80

Hitler, Adolf, 7, 387

Hizballah, 26, 28–30, 32, 68, 85, 110, 214, 337

Iranian support for, 173, 185, 207–11, 213, 258–59, 285, 314, 350, 389

Israeli war with, 210, 212, 266, 317, 362, 377

Shi’i in, 319

Hollande, François, 129

Holocaust, 216

Hong Kong, 293

Hormuz, Strait of, 88, 249, 250, 272, 274, 365

flow of oil through, 261–62, 363

threatened closing of, 219–21, 233, 260–63, 268, 273, 314

human rights, 124, 130, 178

containment of Iran and, 385–87

Human Rights Watch, 178

Husayn, Saddam, 9, 69, 96, 99, 109, 128, 155–56, 227, 237, 244, 266, 271, 285, 303

domestic opposition to, 371–72

failed efforts at containment of, xv, 78

fall and execution of, 47, 70, 84, 114, 121, 199, 252, 267, 410, 472

Kuwait invaded by, 199, 241, 252, 257, 339

military aggression of, 67, 84, 156, 212

nuclear weapons program of, 35, 45–47, 52, 76, 84, 104, 199–200, 201, 240

reckless belligerence of, 15–16, 67, 240, 248, 339, 410, 454

WMDs and, 9, 46–47, 143, 151, 155, 292, 308, 420

Huyser, Robert E. “Dutch,” 71, 169–70

IDF Radio, 148–49

India, 29, 56, 90, 130, 208, 295, 374–75

Kargil region of, 75

Kashmir crisis and, 75, 293–94, 378

nuclear arsenal of, 64, 74–75, 84, 98, 315, 331, 375, 377–78, 410

Pakistani conflict with, 74–75, 293–94, 315, 377–78

sanctions opposed by, 227

Indian Ocean, 146, 231, 345, 356

Indo-Pakistani wars:

of 1965, 74

of 1971, 74

of 1999, 75

Institute for National Security Studies, 202, 213

Institute for Science and International Security, 54, 196–99

Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, 364

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 35, 37–40, 43–47, 52, 193, 203, 249, 381

Additional Protocol of, 58

Board of Governors of, 40

General Conference resolutions of, 245

Iran condemned by, 40

Iran’s communication with, 49, 50, 119

Member States of, 44

monitoring of nuclear sites by, 39, 40, 43, 46, 143, 144, 234, 239, 377–78, 401

International Court of Justice, 245

International Crisis Group, 156

international law, 243–47

Internet:

Iranian control of, 21, 148, 178

see also cyberwarfare

Iran:

air defenses of, 220, 232, 233

Americans attacked by, 24–25, 65, 67, 72, 78, 81–82, 85, 114, 148–50, 157, 180, 273

anti-Americanism of, 23–26, 59, 60, 67, 72, 163, 173, 236–39, 323

Arab and Mongol conquests of, 10

Assembly of Experts of, 6, 21

blackmarket in, 135, 136

Byzantine, fragmented political system of, 5–7, 68

Central Bank of, 130

clerical rule of Supreme Leader in, 3–4, 5–8, 9–10, 115, 242, 272

constitution of, 18, 59

Council of Guardians of, 6, 18, 23, 59, 120, 366

crime and corruption in, 133

culture of, 4–5

cyberwarfare by, 29, 85, 148–50, 180, 217, 259–60, 271–72, 460, 470

damaged economy of, 38, 56–57, 115–16, 119, 132–39

defection of diplomats and scientists from, 177

defense and protection of, 9, 10, 13, 15, 70–73

disputed election of 2009 in, 19–21, 123, 174, 442

distance between Israel and, 189–91

as dominant power in southwest Asia, 10–11

Expediency Discernment Council of, 6, 18, 59

factionalism endemic in, 5, 18

fear of American invasion in, 40, 113, 116, 120, 167

foreign intelligence operations in, 171

Foreign Ministry of, 141–42

foreign policy since 2009 in, 22–28, 32–33

goals and priorities of, xviii, 9–16

gross domestic product of, 153

hardliner policymakers in, 12, 19–22, 61, 119, 120–21, 137–38, 141, 149, 159, 167, 239, 285, 301, 366, 443

hatred of Israel by, 30–32, 59, 60, 72, 110

highly personalized, xenophobic leadership of, 6, 7, 17, 21, 70

human rights abuses in, 178

impact of Israeli or U.S. air strikes on, 195–223, 233–36

impact of sanctions on, xiii, 112, 115–16, 119, 132–38, 154–57, 179, 226–28

indigenous opposition groups in, xvii–xviii, xix, 25, 32, 37, 149, 169, 171–72, 174–79

inertia of political change in, 5, 8, 61–62

intelligence and security agencies in, 6, 12, 21, 69, 144, 172, 209, 241, 260

Islamic Revolution of 1979 in, xiv, 3–5, 7, 9, 11–12, 15, 19, 35, 65, 68, 71, 113, 134, 160, 175, 201, 363, 372

isolation of, xiii, 65, 119, 121, 171, 201, 283

judiciary in, 12, 21, 366

“kaleidoscopic” politics of, 5

Khobar Towers attack by, 67, 72, 85, 173, 208, 273, 302–3, 492

Kurdish, Baluch, and Arab minorities in, 25, 32, 149, 171–72, 175, 179, 389

Law Enforcement Forces of, 132

legislature of, 366

limited U.S. understanding of, xvi, xviii, 4–9, 25–26, 33, 45, 48, 63, 105, 109–10, 215

major ports of, 268

maps of, ix, 187

moderate and pragmatic voices in, 8–9, 15–16, 18, 20–24, 68, 115–17, 120–21, 133–34, 137, 149

mountainous terrain of, 5, 266–67

nationalism in, 5, 10–11, 236–37, 270

natural gas reserves of, 41–42

naval defenses of, 25, 85, 257, 285

1979–81 U.S. hostage crisis in, 65, 72, 114, 134, 194

90 percent Shi’i population of, 4, 27, 70, 84, 96, 210

nuclear program of, see Iranian nuclear program

oil industry of, 71, 84–85, 86, 115, 125, 130, 132–35, 138, 148, 154, 155, 219, 226–27, 250, 269, 272, 274

oppositionists killed and imprisoned by, 124, 160, 171–72, 178

Parliament (Majles) of, 6, 12, 21, 59, 116, 144, 203, 285

as part of the “Axis of Evil,” 122

pharmaceutical industry in, 68

population of, 153

possible collapse of, 367–69, 391, 405

possible Israeli strike on, xix, 42, 55, 60, 65, 72–73, 104, 106, 183–223, 231, 235–36, 254, 258, 259, 289, 327, 336–38, 477

pragmatism vs. ideological convictions in, 15–16, 24

principle of maslahat (interest of the regime) in, 58

purge of moderate elements in, 21–22, 367

pursuit of regime change in, xviii, xix, 104, 106–7, 119–22, 145, 158–82, 240–43, 287, 311, 321, 370, 372–73, 395–96

reform elements in, xviii, 36–37, 115–17, 159, 161, 174, 366

regional hegemony seen as “natural” order by, 10–11, 12, 82, 91, 92, 120, 323

road and rail network of, 71

secrecy and insecurity of, 4–5, 7, 8, 70, 234, 239

smuggling in, 226–27

Soviet troops withdrawn from, 77

spread of Islamic Revolution as priority of, 9, 11–12, 16, 24, 120

Sunni-Shi’a conflict in, 70

support for opposition groups in, 149, 167, 321

terrorism supported and practiced by, 14, 25, 26, 28–30, 31, 64, 65, 67–70, 72, 78, 79–80, 82, 85, 92, 110, 114, 147, 163, 173–74, 180–81, 207–11, 217, 258–60, 271–74, 285, 299–300, 304, 305, 310, 314–15

two distinct military units of, 6–7

unemployment in, 133

U.S. attempts to influence internal politics of, 8–9, 23, 33, 36–37, 71, 169–70, 176, 321

U.S. seen as waging “soft war” against, 14, 26, 33, 149, 168

Western attacks and occupation of, 70–71, 116

Western covert action against, 33, 38, 71, 147–50, 173, 273, 284, 321

willingness to use torture, mass arrests and killings to hold power by, 10, 124, 160, 172, 178

WMD program of, 227, 272, 305–6

Iran, proposed containment of, xiv–xix, 105–9, 117, 277–391, 396–405, 416–21

advantages and disadvantages of, 401–5

air strikes vs., 397–401, 405–8, 413–15

appeasement vs., 280, 281

“balancing” behavior and, 340–44, 352

“bandwagoning” (“Finlandization”) and, 340–44, 352, 374, 403, 459

breakout capability and, 373–76

choosing the path of, 421

costs and risks of, 311, 354–65, 414–15, 509

crisis management in, 310–11, 322–26, 376–78, 409, 412

current U.S. disavowal of, 279–80, 290

danger of nascent nuclear arsenals and, 326–32

dealing with Iranian subversion and unconventional warfare in, 314–20, 334–35, 340, 366–67, 372

defense treaties helpful in, 350–52

defensive vs. offensive, 317–21, 370, 371, 389–90

deterrence and extended deterrence as, 281, 297–309, 312–14, 352, 381–82, 387–88, 403, 409–10, 419, 495–98

“existential threats” and, 292–96

flexibility of, 320, 389–90

human rights and, 385–87

increased conventional forces and, 344–50, 354–60

Israel and, 387–89

long-term considerations and, 311, 365–69, 382–85

need for a deal in, 378–82, 395, 396, 421

oil market and, 360–65, 404, 408–9, 411–12, 491

possible collapse of Iran and, 367–69, 391, 405

prevention vs., 279–80, 338, 393–94

problems of, 310–69, 407

proliferation and, 338–41, 375, 391, 403, 412

purposes of, 280–81, 370

“red lines” concept and, 333–38, 378–79, 394

regime change and, 287, 311, 321, 370, 372–73, 395–96

reputational considerations and, 338–41

sanctions and, 382–85

successful functioning of, 370–91

tactical nuclear weapons and, 346–47

understanding of, 280–84

U.S. history of containment and, 280–83, 284–91, 408, 419–20

U.S. regional allies and, 291–96, 316–17, 320–21, 340, 342–44, 350–54

Iran Air Flight 455, 257

Iran-Contra scandal, 8, 285

Iranian Armed Forces (Artesh), 6, 17, 169–70, 171, 242, 266, 360

Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 58

Iranian nuclear program, xiii–xx, 9, 17, 34–83, 86, 88, 97, 445–53

Arab Spring and, 79–80

assassination of Iranian scientists in, 25, 26, 38, 148, 173, 208

“breakout” capability and, 55–57, 60, 62–63, 80, 86, 103–9, 142–43, 373–76

capacity for weaponizing of, xiii–xvi, xix–xx, 3, 5, 13, 31, 34–44, 47–83, 95, 97, 99–421

carrot-and-stick (negotiation for concessions) approach to, xvii, xix, 36–37, 107–8, 112, 117–57, 159–60, 164, 181, 206, 253, 255, 287–88, 289, 465

concealment of, 38–44, 45–46, 48–53, 60, 193

cyberattacks on, 33, 38, 71, 148–50, 217, 321, 470

debate on, xx, 7, 12–13, 17, 39, 51–53, 110–11, 157, 184, 279

defensive vs. offensive rationale for, 22–23, 31, 59, 70–73, 76, 81

economic incentives for change in, 144–45

engagement-only approach to, 111–17

as “existential threat,” 292–96

international sanctions imposed to force an end to, xiii, 13, 38, 48, 56–57, 60–61, 65, 89, 108, 113–19, 121–22, 124–27, 129–39, 145, 149–53, 156–57, 163–64, 167, 179, 219, 220, 226–28, 245, 284, 289, 382–85

Iranian military involvement in, 44

Iranian public opinion on, 162

Iraq nuclear program compared to, 44–48

Khamene’i and, 12–13, 37, 119

monitoring and inspections of, 39, 40, 46, 55–56, 105–6, 108–9, 111, 140, 142–43, 144, 239, 377, 401

nuclear and technological incentives for change in, 140–44

options for dealing with, xiii–xx, 72, 101–421

peaceful, domestic uses of, 34, 35, 38–39, 40–41, 48, 109, 125–26, 161

as possible benefit to U.S., 65–66

prevention of weaponizing of, 101–275, 279–80, 338, 393–94

progress in, xiii, 31, 36–38, 57, 61–62, 108, 122, 141, 235–36, 239, 246, 287

rebuilding of, 235, 238–40, 248, 251, 264, 399, 400

security guarantees as incentives for change in, 145–46, 147

threats and costs to U.S. of, xvi–xix, 64–82

U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) of, 51, 52

Western campaign against, xiii, xvii, xix, 13, 29, 31, 33, 38, 71, 77, 148–50

see also Iran, containment of; United States, military option of

Iran-Iraq War, 16, 25, 35, 84–85, 133, 134, 201, 208, 237, 303

Iranian counter-invasion in, 285

Iranian losses in, 10, 67

Iraq’s use of WMD in, 69, 71

1980 Iraq invasion of Iran in, 7, 67, 171

U.S. naval intervention in, 67, 273

Iran Law Enforcement Forces (LEF), 20, 242

Iraq, xv–xvii

civil war of 2005–2007 in, 28

failed U.S. efforts at containment of, xv, 9

intelligence services of, 305

Iranian involvement in, 26, 27, 29

Israeli strike on nuclear plant in, 184, 191, 194, 199–202, 240

Kurds in, 241

Kuwait invaded by, 67, 78, 156, 199, 241, 252, 257, 339

monitoring and inspection of, 46, 111, 143, 240

naval blockade of, 227

1990s U.S. air strikes on, 96, 233, 248, 251, 406

nuclear program of, 45–47, 48, 50, 60, 76, 184, 191, 194, 199–200, 202, 222

political parties in, 93

proto-democracy created in, 70, 96, 114

Republican Guard of, 24

sanctions against, 47, 143, 151, 154–56, 227, 283, 371

Scud missile attacks on Israel by, 74, 212

sectarian conflict in, 26

Shi’a dominance in, 70, 93, 114, 241, 303

U.S. containment of, 371–72

U.S.-led occupation and rebuilding of, xv, 16, 206, 225, 269, 271, 272, 304, 346, 356, 406, 492

Western belief in WMDs in, 44–48, 52

withdrawal of U.S. troops from, 26, 173

WMDs of, 9, 46–47, 69, 71, 143, 151, 155, 233, 292, 308, 420, 449, 451

see also Husayn, Saddam; Iran-Iraq War; Persian Gulf War

Iraq Army, 171

Iraq Security Forces, 269

Iraq War, xiv, 153, 406

costs of, 272

lack of planning in, xv–xvi, 287

legality of, 244–45

as Operation Iraqi Freedom, 267

problems in the aftermath of, xv, 268–69

2003 U.S. invasion in, xv, 9, 45, 47, 60, 67, 99, 104, 109, 114, 116, 143, 199, 225, 248, 257, 263, 266, 267, 303–4, 308, 362

U.S. military surge in, 152, 269, 271, 492

U.S. troops killed in, 33, 270

Irbil, 248

Islam:

belief in return of the Mahdi in, 67–68

Israel seen as foe of, 14–15

militant power of, 215

spreading of revolution as God’s will in, 12

see also Muslims

Islamabad, 73, 74, 86

Islamic law:

fatwas issued in, 58–60

nuclear weapons and, 57–58

Islamic Revolution, The: A Surge in Political Changes in History (Mesbah-Yazdi), 61

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), 6–7, 12, 42, 62, 114, 120, 203, 209, 219, 274

British forces captured by, 16, 304

independent actions taken by, 16–17, 24, 229, 305

Kurdish revolt crushed by, 171–72

power of, 7, 17, 242, 440

purge of moderate government elements by, 21

Quds force of, 24–26, 69, 323

terrorist groups supported by, 24–25

vital roles of, 7, 273

Israel, 16, 45, 69, 76, 77, 89–90, 96–97, 114, 163, 292–93

Begin-Sadat Center in, 341

containment of Iran and, 387–89

covert actions against Iran by, 148–49, 173

distance between Iran and, 189–91

economy of, 213, 214

Egypt and, 90

gross domestic product (GDP) of, 212

intelligence agencies of, 31, 37, 51, 53, 57, 87, 141, 148, 202, 215

Iranian hatred of, 30–32, 59, 60, 72, 110

Iranian nuclear scientists believed killed by, 148, 173, 208

Iranian support for elimination of, 14–15, 31

Iraq nuclear plant struck by, 184, 191, 194, 199–202, 240

Iraq Scud missile attacks on, 74, 212

Lebanon invaded by, 114

map of, 187

1973 October War of, 74, 298, 322–23, 352, 457

nuclear arsenal of, 31, 61, 72, 73–74, 84, 90, 306–7, 336–38, 456

possible strike on Iran by, xix, 42, 55, 60, 65, 72–73, 104, 106, 183–223, 231, 235–36, 254, 258, 259, 289, 327, 336–38, 394, 477

prisoner exchanges by, 194

public opinion in, 204, 213–14, 215, 216, 295

restraint on Iran nuclear issue by, 184–85, 222

Saudi relations with, 86–87

security in, 214–15

settlers in, 215

Six Day War of, 81, 457

Syrian attacks by, 184, 194, 246–47, 398, 399

terrorist attacks against, 211–12, 217, 337

threat of Iranian nuclear program to, 3, 66, 68, 127–28, 336–38

2006 Hizballah war with, 210, 212, 266, 317, 362, 457

U.S. aid to, 360, 389

U.S. relations with, 14–15, 29, 74, 84, 87, 190, 204–7, 216–21, 291–92, 300–301, 320–21, 352

War of Attrition of, 90, 457

see also Arab-Israel conflict

Israel Air Force (IAF), 183–84, 186–95

aircraft of, 388

bombs of, 192–93, 206

suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) by, 195

Israel Atomic Energy Commission, 196

Israel Defense Forces (IDF), 57, 186, 190, 207, 210, 215, 216, 323

Iron Dome antirocket system of, 210, 212–13, 350

Operation Pillar of Defense of, 211

special forces (SF) of, 193–95

Israel Defense Intelligence, 141

Israel Knesset, 306

Italy, 98

Jafari, Mohammad Ali, 203

Jalili, Saeed, 126

Jannati, Ayatollah Ahmad, 23, 120

Japan, 98, 99, 130, 237, 245, 293, 353, 374

Jaysh al-Mahdi, 30

Jerusalem, 10, 24, 86–87, 128, 285

Jews, 31, 70

ultra-orthodox, 215

Johnson, Lyndon B., 147

Joint Chiefs of Staff, U.S., 197

Jordan, 26, 27, 188–89, 227, 318

Jubeir, Adel al-, failed assassination of, 24–25, 85, 217

Kahl, Colin, 75, 235, 239

Kahn, Herman, xix

Kam, Ephraim, 202, 209

Kargil War of 1999, 298, 322, 367, 378, 408

Karrubi, Mehdi, 174

Kashani, Ayatollah Abol-Ghasem, 169

Kataib Hizballah, 319

Kayhan (Iran), 15, 61, 133–34, 137

Kazakhstan, 365

Kennan, George, 282, 370

Kennedy, John F., 145, 322, 339, 340, 345

KGB, 308

Khajehpour, Bijan, 131, 135, 154

Khalaji, Mehdi, 58

Khamene’i, Ayatollah Ali, 22, 33, 56, 115–16, 133, 167–68, 305, 338

accession to power of, 8

Ahmadinejad disowned by, 13

challenge to authority of, 8

consolidation of power by, 7, 13

fatwas issued by, 58, 59–60

fear and loathing of U.S. by, 13–15, 126, 131–32, 239

hatred of Israel by, 30–31

leadership style of, 63

liberal policies opposed by, 13, 21

nuclear program and, 12–13, 37, 57–58, 119, 120, 136–40, 240

nuclear weaponization disclaimed by, 57–58, 59, 161, 379

Obama and, 123, 379

personalized functioning of, 7, 17, 22

policies of, 12–15, 22, 37, 119, 258

pragmatism of, 15–16, 24, 31, 62, 303

presidency of, 14, 59

relationship of hardline factions and, 13, 19, 21, 119

secretive, suspicious nature of, 8, 9, 12, 18

shrouded decision-making of, 7, 8, 12

succession to, 17–19, 311, 365–69, 404–5, 409, 411

as Supreme Leader, 7–9, 12–16, 63, 365–69

terrorist plots approved by, 15, 25

Khan, Abdul Qadeer, 35–37, 39, 417

Kharrazi, Kamal, 41

Kharrazi, Sadegh, 116

Khartoum, 247

Khatami, Mohammad, 117

liberal tendencies of, 13, 20, 36–37, 115–16, 120, 175, 366

presidency of, 13, 33, 36–37, 115–16, 162–63, 175, 176, 287

Khatami, Mohammad Reza, 162–63

Khomeini, Ayatollah Ruhollah, 58–59, 114, 133, 169, 177, 303, 323, 409

anti-Semitism and anti-Zionism of, 30

death of, 16, 58, 335, 452

determination to “liberate” Baghdad, Mecca, and Jerusalem by, 10

elimination of foreign influences as obsession of, 13

elimination of Israel supported by, 14–15

fatwas issued by, 59–60

Iran-Iraq War ended by, 67

nuclear weaponization disclaimed by, 59

Salafiyya (Wahhabi) Islam rejected by, 15

stated goals of, 9, 10, 11–12, 16

U.S. labeled “Great Satan” by, 21, 22

Khrushchev, Nikita, 329, 339, 340, 367, 410

Khuzestan, 172, 175

Kissinger, Henry A., 356

Koran, 300

Korean War, 74, 328

Chinese involvement in, 77

U.S. involvement in, 333

Kosovo War, 242, 251, 254, 265, 406

NATO intervention in, 241, 244, 407

Krepinevich, Andrew, 315

Kroenig, Matthew, 239, 258, 307, 406–7, 491

Kugler, Richard L., 299–300

Kurdistan, 171–72

Kurdistan Democratic Party, 93

Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), 92

Kurds, 25, 26, 27, 92

in Iran, 25, 31, 149, 171–72, 175, 179, 389

in Iraq, 241

Kuwait, 26, 27, 29, 173, 231, 247, 268, 305, 342, 348–49

Iraq invasion of, 67, 78, 156, 199, 241, 252, 257, 339

liberation of, 352

see also Persian Gulf War

Larijani brothers, 366

Laser Isotope Separation, 40

Lashkar-e Taiba, 369

Lavrov, Sergei, 249

Lebanon, 27, 28, 70, 157, 266, 273, 389

Bekaa Valley in, 114, 314

Iranian interests in, 11, 26, 84, 114, 285, 314

Israeli invasion of, 114, 457

mountainous terrain of, 5

1980s hostage crisis in, 72, 335

U.S. intervention in, 335, 339

Lebanon War of 2006, 210, 212, 266, 362

Lend-Lease program, 71

Levite, Eli, 207

Levy, Daniel, 214

Libya, 27, 35, 47, 79, 301, 372, 487

government overthrown in, 60, 241, 317

nuclear program of, 48, 60

sanctions against, 153

terrorism sponsored by, 69, 153, 257

light-water reactors, 140–41

Lockerbie, 153

London, 16, 71

Los Zetas cartel, 24–25

Louis XIV, King of France, 419

Luft, Gal, 364–65

Lula da Silva, Luiz Inácio, 126

Lynch, Marc, 342

Machel, Samora, 368

McNally, Robert, 154, 364–65

Mahdi (Redeemer), 67–68

Majd, Hooman, 4

Maliki, Nuri al-, 27

Maloney, Suzanne, 136, 171

Manes (Persian prophet), 23

Manichean philosophy, 23

Mao Zedong, 75–76, 80, 418

Marine Corps, U.S., 267, 270, 271, 285, 345

Marine Reserves, U.S., 270

Marxism, 37

Massive Ordinance Penetrators (MOPs), 231–32, 234

Mazar-e Sharif, 16

Mecca, 10, 285

Hajj pilgrimage to, 84

Medes, 10

Medina, 84

Mediterranean Sea, 345, 356

Mehmanparast, Ramin, 141

Menashri, David, 15, 300

Mesbah-Yazdi, Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi, 18, 61

Mexican drug cartels, 24–25

Middle East, 14, 26, 29, 78, 223, 374

dangers of destabilization in, xiv, 26–28, 110, 128, 139, 163, 316–18, 362, 409

demands for a Nuclear-Weapons Free Zone in, 91, 391

economic, political, and social stagnation in, 95

Iranian policy of expanded Islamic influence in, 9, 11–12, 16, 65

map of, ix

U.S. interests and military forces in, 64, 146, 281

Milani, Abbas, 170

military option, U.S., see United States, military option of

Milosevich, Slobodan, 237, 254, 265, 368, 407

MI6, 31, 51–52, 169

missiles, 186–88, 216

antiballistic (ABM), 350, 352

Arrow II and III, 388

ballistic, 87, 186, 188, 209, 229, 232–33, 235, 258, 271, 312, 327–28, 330, 358–59, 388

cruise, 186, 195, 205, 231, 233, 248, 273, 305, 312, 359–60, 388

David’s Sling, 350, 388

intercontinental ballistic (ICBMs), 328, 347, 359

intermediate-range ballistic, 87

medium-range ballistic (MRBMs), 359

Patriot, 188, 205, 350, 388

Scud, 74, 212, 353

surface-to-air (SAM), 186, 191, 232–33

transport of, 327

Mohajer, Fariba Davoodi, 172

Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, Shah of Iran, 31

demonstrations against, 20

Israel’s relations with, 114

nuclear ambition of, 34

overthrow of, 11, 12, 71

U.S. relations with, 13, 71

Mongols, 10

Montgomery, Evan Braden, 315

Morocco, 26, 32, 316, 318

Morris, Benny, 215–16

Morsi, Muhammad, 91

Mosaddeq, Mohammad, 135, 237

fall of, 23, 71, 117, 169

Moscow, 71, 75, 77

Mossad, 31, 37, 148, 149

Mousavi, Mir-Hossein, 174

Mousavian, Seyed Hossein, 56, 138

Moussa, Amr, 250

Mozambique, 368

Mubarak, Husni, 91

fall of, 318, 368

Muhammad (Prophet), 20

Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), 37

mujahideen, Afghan, 315

Mumbai, Pakistani attack on, 75, 378

Muslims, 61, 204, 208–9, 218, 246

nondenominational, 30

public opinion of, 259

Salafiyya (Wahhabi), 15

Shi’i, 4–5, 12, 15, 26–30, 58, 67, 70, 78, 84, 85, 92–93, 96, 114, 177, 210, 211, 260, 303, 319

Sufi, 30

Sunni, 15, 26, 27–28, 30, 70, 84, 85, 92–93, 210, 319, 350, 508–9

see also Islam; Sunni-Shi’a conflict

Napoleon I, Emperor of France, 228, 419

“Military Maxims” of, 266

Nasrallah, Hassan, 210–11

Nasser, Gamal ‘Abd al-, 89–90

Natanz uranium enrichment plant, 36, 37, 39, 48–50, 189, 192, 198, 232–33, 448

National Guard, U.S., 270

National Intelligence Council, U.S., 51

National Security Agency, U.S., 148

National Security Council, U.S., 51, 62, 155–56, 322, 330, 356, 407

Legislative Affairs office of, 158

Navy, U.S., 16, 67, 219, 220, 227, 260, 268, 272

blockade of Iraq by, 227

clash of Iran’s naval forces with, 25, 85, 285

Fifth Fleet of, 346

Nimitz-class aircraft carriers in, 231

Operation Praying Mantis of, 257, 303

in Persian Gulf, 146, 219, 232, 285, 314, 324, 345, 347, 355–56, 362, 503

possible blockade of Iran by, 226–29

NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 256–57

Nellis Air Force Base, 183

Netanyahu, Benjamin, 54, 128, 193, 213, 215, 279, 379

Netanyahu, Yonatan, 193

New Delhi, 68, 75, 294

New York Times, 134, 147–48, 197, 249, 446–47

Nicaragua, 283

Contras in, 8, 285, 315

Sandinistas in, 371

9/11 attacks, see September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks

Nitze, Paul, 370

Nixon, Richard M., 75, 147, 247, 283, 313, 323

North Africa, 11, 29

North Arabian Sea, 248

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 18, 93–94, 128, 188, 312–13, 341

Kosovo War intervention by, 241, 244, 254, 271

Libyan rebels aided by, 241

membership of Turkey in, 349–52

North Carolina, 158

North Korea, 35, 138, 301, 324, 359, 367, 371, 391

attacks on South Korea by, 74, 80, 294–95, 333

inspectors sent to, 111

isolation and unpredictability of, 13, 69, 294, 369

nuclear arsenal of, 54, 60–61, 74, 80–81, 86, 98, 99, 208, 294–96, 363–64, 369, 417

nuclear program of, 35, 36, 47, 48, 54, 97, 255, 462

see also Korean War

North Korean Army Supreme Command, 294

nuclear energy, 34–63

natural gas energy vs., 41–42

peaceful uses of, 34–35, 38–41, 48, 88, 109

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), 34–40, 51, 54–55, 58, 86, 88, 100, 401

Additional Protocol of, 116, 143, 379

Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement of, 35, 37–40, 42, 58

conditions stipulated by, 55

Iran as signatory to, 34–35, 37, 202–3, 447

sanctions issued under, 48, 57

threatened withdrawal of Iran from, 62–63, 80, 205, 216, 218, 222, 238, 248, 258, 274, 377, 378, 381, 384

violations of, 245

nuclear war, 407

containment vs., 395

“escalation dominance” in, 328–30

“mutual assured destruction” (MAD) and, 298, 327, 329, 347, 387

“red line” concept and, 333–38, 378–79

second strike capabilities in, 327–28, 388

as unthinkable, xix

nuclear weapons:

blackmail threats and, 76–79, 311, 341, 458–59

caution and restraint with, 73–76, 100, 110–11

countries discontinuing quest for, 98, 365, 368, 376

countries in possession of, 34, 35, 54, 60, 73–81, 83–84, 97–99, 417

defensive vs. offensive rationale for, 22–23, 31, 59, 70–76

as deterrents, 59, 60, 61, 72–77, 112

fear of, 66, 293

Islamic law and, 57–58

limitation of, 83–84, 97, 100

physics and engineering problems in production of, 35–36

proliferation of, 83–100, 311, 338–41, 375, 391, 403, 412

radioactive fallout from, 56

radioactive fissile materials in, 35–40, 42–43, 45–46, 48–49, 54, 68, 145

tactical, 346–47

terrorism and, 68–70, 97–98

unlikelihood of Iranian transfer of, 68–70, 334, 337

Nye, Joseph, 14

Obama, Barack, 26, 54, 118–20, 139, 144, 148, 252, 304–5, 386, 414, å465

containment policy disavowed by, 279–80, 290

criticism of, 131

drawdown of troops in Afghanistan by, 304

Dual-Track Iran policy of, xix, 8, 33, 71, 103–4, 115, 119–20, 122–28, 131–32, 140, 206, 287–89, 378–80

elections of, 122, 123, 255

Israeli strike on Iran opposed by, 206, 221

Khamene’i and, 123, 379

“red line” rhetoric of, 334, 378–79

regime change rationale and, 164, 167–68

2013 State of the Union address of, 280, 379

withdrawal of troops from Iraq by, 304

O’Connell, Mary Ellen, 245

O’Hanlon, Michael, 239

Olmert, Ehud, 206

Oman, 231, 247, 342, 348

Osirak reactor, 184, 191, 194, 199–200, 201, 202, 240

O’Sullivan, Meghan, 112–13, 152–53, 156, 179–80, 383

Pacific Ocean, 333, 356

Pahlavi, Mohammad Reza Shah, see Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, Shah of Iran

Pakistan, 70, 138, 247

Baluch population of, 73

drug smuggling and terrorist operations of, 73

Indian conflict with, 74–75, 293–94, 315, 377–78

Iranian nuclear program aided by, 35–37, 39–40

Kahuta nuclear plant in, 85

Kashmir crisis and, 75, 293–94, 378

nuclear arsenal of, 35, 36, 37, 50, 60–61, 66, 72–73, 74–75, 81, 85–86, 98, 208, 294, 295, 306, 315, 331, 369, 375, 378, 410, 411, 497

Saudi relations with, 85, 87

terrorists and extremists in, 294

Palestine Liberation Organization, 315

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), 26, 30, 173

Iranian support for, 185, 207–9, 258–59, 337, 350

Palestinians, 15, 84, 95, 163, 204, 213–14, 259, 318

Jewish hostages taken by, 193

see also Arab-Israel conflict

Pan Am Flight 103 bombing, 153, 257

Panetta, Leon, 236

Parchin military complex, 43, 192, 232

Paris, 54, 128

Parsi, Trita, 123

Parthians, 10

Passchendaele, Battle of, 300

Patrikarakos, David, 60

Payne, Keith, 302, 329–30

Pearl Harbor, Japanese attack on, 71

Perry, Mark, 149

Persian Empire:

1501 Safavid conquest of, 70

as world’s first superpower, 10, 12

as World War I battleground, 70–71

Persian Gulf, xiv, 16, 34, 60, 85, 89, 112, 314, 339

flow of oil through, 268, 285

U.S. interests in, 161, 169, 220, 412–13

U.S. naval forces in, 146, 219, 232, 247–48, 267, 284, 285, 303, 314, 324, 345, 347, 355–56, 362, 503

Persian Gulf War, xv, 50, 69, 151, 183, 212, 243, 244, 251, 286, 346

Kuwait liberated in, 352

oil market and, 362, 363

as Operation Desert Storm, 199, 200, 201, 240, 241, 303, 340

U.S.-led coalition in, 67, 252, 257, 353

Persian Puzzle, The (Pollack), 158

Pickering, Tom, 336

Pillar, Paul, 69

Pinochet, Augusto, 368

Pletka, Danielle, 158–60, 181, 281, 322, 396, 407

plutonium, 35–36

separation of, 36, 37–38, 45, 51

polonium-210, 40

Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC), 207–9

Powell, Colin, 52

Princeton Survey Research Associates International, 256

Proliferation Security Initiative, 227

Putin, Vladimir, 99

Pyongyang, 74, 81, 111, 294

Qadhafi, Muammar, 69, 153, 241, 301, 487

Qajars, 10

Qatar, 26, 78, 231, 247, 250, 342, 348–49

Qom, 42, 45, 49, 189, 192

Rafsanjani, Ali Akbar Hashemi, 18, 21, 285, 325, 501

liberal tendencies of, 13, 20, 115, 120, 133, 286

presidency of, 13, 115, 286

on WMD, 59

Ramazani, R. K., 5

Ranchian, Saeed, 134

RAND Corporation, 299

2010 poll of, 162

Rapidan Group, 364

Reagan, Ronald, 139, 153, 170, 283, 284–85, 288, 370, 372

Red Army, 71, 75, 77, 312, 313, 345

Reissner, Johannes, 113

Repubblica (Rome), 162–63

Republican Party, 122

Reuters-IPSOS survey, 256

Riyadh, 15, 84–87, 316, 341

Ross, Dennis, 252, 462

Rowhani, Hassan, 33, 120

Royal Navy, 16

Rubin, Barry, 341

Rushdie, Salman, 59

Russia, 8, 56, 78, 99

nuclear arsenal of, 64, 293, 418

sanctions opposed by, 61, 138

U.S. strike on Iran opposed by, 244, 246, 249, 254

see also Soviet Union

Ryabkov, Sergei, 249

Sadat, Anwar as-, 90

Sadjadpour, Karim, 13, 21, 41, 124, 140, 167, 218, 280–81, 306, 440–41

Safavi, Yahya Rahim, 211

Safavids, 10, 70

Salehi, Ali Akbar, 58, 134, 141–42

Salehi, Ataollah, 219

Salehi-Isfahani, Djavad, 135

Sarkosy, Nicolas, 129

Sassanids, 10

Saudi Arabia, 26, 70, 84–87, 91, 95, 157, 248, 250, 295, 316, 362

al-Qa’ida supported by, 69

Eastern Province of, 85

impact of Iranian nuclear program on, 3, 78, 84–87, 95, 97, 110, 410–11

Israeli relations with

Khobar Towers attack in, 67, 72, 85, 173, 208, 273, 302–3, 492

oil industry of, 78, 84–85, 86, 88, 173, 262, 361, 363, 506, 509

Pakistan and, 85, 87

police in, 84

reforms in, 318

Salafiyya (Wahhabi) Islam practiced in, 15

Shi’as in, 84, 85, 260, 506

Sunnis in, 84, 85

UAE and, 88–89, 342

union with Bahrain proposed by, 15

U.S. alliance with, 15, 27, 33, 66, 127, 231, 285, 346

Saudi Aramco, 85

Saudi royal family, 84, 87, 91

Schake, Kori, 330

Schelling, Thomas, 77

Schwarzkopf, Norman, 353

Scowcroft, Brent, 308

“Second Nuclear Age,” 302

Seleucids, 10

Senate, U.S., 279

Seoul, 74

September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, 271, 289

aftermath of, 274, 287, 302

destruction of World Trade Center in, 69

U.S. response to, 122, 244, 259, 274, 318, 330

Serbia, 237, 241, 254

Shabani, Mohammad Ali, 134

Shakuri, Gholam, 24–25

Shamir, Yitzhak, 389

Sharoudi, Mahmoud Hashemi, 18

Shatt al-Arab waterway, 16, 304

Shiffer, Shimon, 215

Shire, Jacqueline, 196–99

Shrewd Sanctions (O’Sullivan), 152–53

Singapore, 154, 293

Smith, Jeff, 245–46

Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), 131

Solidarity movement, 385

Soltanieh, Ali Asghar, 203

Somme, Battle of, 300

South Africa, 365

GDP of, 180

sanctions against, 179–80

South Asia, 10, 27, 69

Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO), 351

South Korea, 98, 99, 130, 293, 295, 368, 371, 374, 376

North Korean attacks on, 74, 80, 294–95, 333

see also Korean War

Soviet Frontal Aviation, 312

Soviet Union, 71

Chinese clashes with, 75–76, 298

collapse of, 153, 166, 282, 286, 315, 349, 405

economy of, 282

“hotline” between U.S. and, 324

issue of nuclear war between U.S. and, xix, 66, 323, 324, 326, 328–29, 332–33

military power of, 282

nuclear arsenal of, 34, 35, 75–76, 98, 293, 295, 328–29, 418

Politburo of, 322, 367

U.S. relations with, xix, 66, 75, 77, 281, 282–83, 302, 307–8, 312–13, 323, 324, 326, 328–29, 332–33, 344–45, 370–71, 390, 391

withdrawal of troops from Iran by, 77

see also Cold War; Cuban Missile Crisis; Russia

Spain, 237, 368, 417

Sparta, 282

Stalin, Joseph, 21, 77, 300, 410

Stanford University, 170

State Department, U.S., 170, 245, 466

Stephens, Bret, 299, 301

Strait of Hormuz, see Hormuz, Strait of

Strategies of Containment (Gaddis), 370–71

Suez Canal 1956 crisis, 328

“Sunni Bomb,” 73

Sunni-Shi’a conflict, 27–28, 70, 84, 85, 92–93, 95

Supreme National Security Council of Iran, 138

Suskind, Ron, 308

Sweden, 98

Switzerland, 5, 98, 130

Syria, 70, 76, 211, 316, 323, 372

Asad regime in, 26, 92–93, 398, 417

civil war in, 26, 27–28, 65, 92–93, 188, 318

80 percent Sunni population in, 27–28

Iranian support of government in, 65, 93

Israeli attacks on, 184, 194, 246–47, 398, 399

nuclear program of, 48, 184, 202, 222, 247, 417

opposition militias in, 27–28

Shi’i Alawite community in, 27–28, 92–93, 211

Turkey and, 92–93

Taiwan, 98, 293, 374, 376

Takeyh, Ray, 14, 21, 112

Taliban, 121–22, 287, 369

Iranian diplomats killed by, 17

Iranian support for, 26, 30, 173, 273

1998 control of Afghanistan by, 17, 114

2001 Afghan eviction of, 241

Tanker War of 1987–88, 25, 65, 72, 264, 285, 303, 444

Taraghi, Hamid Reza, 116

Tehran, 11, 14–15, 16, 24, 25, 71, 189

Iranian seizure of U.S. Embassy in, 114

student protests in, 171

Swiss Embassy in, 116

2009 demonstrations in, 19–20

Tehran Research Reactor (TRR), 42, 57, 125–26, 132, 133, 141

Tel Aviv, 207

Telhami, Shibley, 213–14

terrorism, 130

definition of, 28n

against Israel, 193, 211–12, 217, 337

Libyan, 153

nuclear, 68–70, 97–98

Pakistani, 73

state sponsorship of, 69

suicide, 114, 300

see also Iran, terrorism supported and practiced by

Thinking About the Unthinkable (Kahn), xix

Thucydides, 282

Times of Israel, 213, 215

Toukan, Abdullah, 195–96, 233–34

Truman, Harry, 71, 77

Tunis, 194

Tunisia, 27, 317

Turkey, 10, 92–94, 110, 219, 227, 248

air defenses of, 188–89

economy and trade of, 93

Kurdish population of, 92

NATO membership of, 349–52

official secularism of, 92

Sunni population in, 92, 350

threat of Iranian nuclear program to, 3, 66, 92–93, 94, 331

Western alliances of, 93–94

Turkish army, 71

Tuwaitha, 184, 199

Uganda, 193–94

Ukraine, 365

United Arab Emirates (UAE), 26, 78, 87–89, 91, 95, 127, 154, 231, 247, 249–50, 316, 348–49

Iran and, 87–88

nuclear program of, 88–89, 461

oil industry of, 88, 262

Saudi Arabia and, 88–89, 342

United Kingdom, 33, 45, 77, 169, 292, 349, 419

intelligence agencies of, 35, 51–52, 148

Iranian relations with, 16, 41–42, 71, 135

Nazi Blitz of, 300

nuclear arsenal of, 64, 83, 94

United Nations, 323

Charter of, 38, 40, 122, 244, 245

Conference on Disarmament in, 294

General Assembly of, 279–80

inspection of Iran nuclear facilities by, 55–56, 108–9

Iran nuclear program banned by, 38

Iran sanctioned by, 48, 114–15, 121, 122, 124–25, 129–30, 143, 219, 245, 248

Iraq sanctioned by, 47, 143, 151, 227

P-5+1 permanent Security Council members of, 125–26, 150, 228–29, 253

Resolution 1929 of, 382

Security Council of, 38, 40, 48, 99, 117, 121, 122, 124–25, 129–30, 143, 155, 203–4, 243–44, 254, 274, 382

United States:

allies of, 15, 27–29, 33, 51–52, 64, 66, 68, 71, 81, 173, 244–45

Appalachia in, 5

attempted influence of Iranian policy by, xiii, 8–9, 29, 33

belief in Iraq WMD program by, 44–48, 69

costs and risks of Iranian nuclear program to, xvi–xix, 3, 64–82

foreign relations of, see specific countries

as “Great Satan,” 22, 23

Hiroshima bombing by, 36, 80

indirect Iranian attacks on, 24–25, 65, 67, 72, 78, 81–82, 85, 114, 148–50, 157, 180, 273

intelligence community of, 23, 32, 43–45, 50–52, 62–63, 176, 197, 259, 331, 359–60, 399, 449, 451

Iranian hatred of, 13–14, 23–26, 59, 60, 67, 72, 78, 81–82, 85, 114, 148–50, 157, 180, 273

Iran policy options of, xiii–xx, 72, 101–421; see also United States, military option of

issue of nuclear war between Soviets and, xix, 66, 323–24, 326, 328–29, 332–33

military strength of, 224–26

nuclear arsenal of, 34, 35, 36, 66, 73, 77, 83–84, 94, 98, 325, 328–36

oil imports of, 220

possible naval blockade of Iran by, 226–29

post 9/11, 33

protracted Iran crisis of, xiii, xvii, 33, 72, 82

public opinion in, 225, 244, 255–57

surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities of, 231–33, 247, 331, 359–60

United States military option of, xiv–xvi, xx, 3, 42, 55, 60, 65, 72–73, 104, 206–7, 224–75

air strikes in, 229–66, 273–74, 289, 313, 344, 380, 394–95, 397–402, 405–8, 413–16

battle areas in, 230

building international support for, 251–53

casualties in, 264, 270–71

costs of, 270–72, 398

domestic opinion on, 225, 244, 255–57

first strike by Iran in, 272–75, 308, 415

impact on Iran of, 233–38

importance of foreign U.S. bases in, 247–48, 258, 267, 268, 284

international reaction to, 243–53

invasion in, 262–75, 289

Iranian political fallout from, 236–38

military aspects of, 231–33, 247, 266–68

naval blockade in, 226–29

post-invasion occupation and, 268–70

rebuilding of nuclear program following, 235, 238–40, 248, 251, 264, 399, 400

regime change through, 240–43

retaliation for, 247, 250, 257–62, 263, 264–65, 267–68, 271–72, 399–400, 407

ultimatum prior to, 253–55

unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs or drones), 231–33, 247

uranium, 35–40, 198–99

enrichment of, 36, 37–38, 39–40, 42–43, 45, 48–50, 51, 87, 140–42, 162–63, 264

high-enriched (HEU), 49, 50, 54

low-enriched (LEU), 49, 54, 57, 108, 125–26, 132, 142, 254–55, 379

medical uses of, 125–26, 133

medium-enriched (MEU), 49, 50, 54, 57

purity levels of, 49–50, 54, 62, 125

V-22 Osprey aircraft, 194

Vaez, Ali, 41, 196

Venezuela, 301, 362

Vienna, 126, 132, 339

Viet Cong, 315

Vietnam, 78, 237, 372

Vietnam War, xv, 339–40

Vincennes, USS, 257

Wahhab, Muhammad Ibn ‘Abd al-, 15

Wahhabis (Salafiyya Muslims), 15

Walesa, Lech, 385

Wall Street Journal, 299

Waltz, Kenneth N., 73–74, 76, 81, 110–11

war games, 205, 218, 263

War of 1812, 228

Warsaw Pact, 312, 346

Washington, D.C., 29, 74, 85, 158, 183, 279

Café Milano in, 24, 33, 304

Washington Post, 58

Waxman, Matt, 246

weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), 44–48, 52, 68–70, 153

chemical and biological agents in, 68–69, 71

Husayn’s elimination of, 9, 46–47, 151

Iranian, 227, 272, 305–6

Iraqi, 9, 46–47, 69, 71, 143, 151, 233, 420, 449, 451

proliferation of, 97–99

radiological weapons (“dirty bombs”) as, 68

Wen Jiabao, 99

West Bank, 215

WikiLeaks, 197, 249

women’s rights, 172

World Trade Organization (WTO), 205–6

World War I, 70–71

battles of, 300

U-boat blockade of, 228, 300

World War II, 23, 71, 79, 83, 300, 383, 418

Yadlin, Amos, 57, 141, 202

Yale University, 297

Yedioth Ahronoth (Israel), 215

Yemen, 27, 32, 70, 247, 316

civil war in, 11, 317

Iranian interests in, 11, 32, 65, 79, 84, 317

Yugoslavia, 78, 90, 383

Zagros Mountains, 191

Zakaria, Fareed, 197

Zarif, Maseh, 322, 407

Zionism, 144, 203