Chapter 12. Turning to Renewable Energy

1. Christoph Podewils, “There’s a Lot of Water in the Wine: Renewable Energy Lobby Criticizes the EU’s Highly Praised Goal for Alternative Energy,” PHOTON International, April 2007, p. 14; Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) and Greenpeace, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006 (Brussels: 2006); U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), Electric Power 2006 (Washington, DC: October 2007), p. 26.

2. “Texas Decision Could Double Wind Power Capacity in the U.S.,” Renewable Energy Access, 4 October 2007; coal-fired power plant equivalents calculated by assuming that an average plant has a 500-megawatt capacity and operates 72 percent of the time, generating 3.15 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year; an average wind turbine operates 36 percent of the time; Iceland geothermal usage from Iceland National Energy Authority and Ministries of Industry and Commerce, Geothermal Development and Research in Iceland (Reykjavik, Iceland: April 2006), p. 16; European per person consumption from European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), “Wind Power on Course to Become Major European Energy Source by the End of the Decade,” press release (Brussels: 22 November 2004); China’s solar water heaters calculated from Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century (REN21), Renewables Global Status Report, 2006 Update (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, 2006), p. 21, and from Bingham Kennedy, Jr., Dissecting China’s 2000 Census (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, June 2001); Philippines from Geothermal Energy Association (GEA), “World Geothermal Power Up 50%, New US Boom Possible,” press release (Washington, DC: 11 April 2002).

3. International Telecommunications Union, “Mobile Cellular Subscribers per 100 People,” ICT Statistics Database, at www.itu.int/ITU D/icteye, updated 2007; Molly O. Sheehan, “Mobile Phone Use Booms,” Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2002 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2002), p. 85.

4. Personal computer data from Computer Industry Almanac Inc, “25-Year PC Anniversary Statistics,” press release, at www.c-i-a.com, 14 August 2006; solar cell production (sales) from Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2005, CD-Rom (Washington, DC: 2005); Paul Maycock, Prometheus Institute, Photovoltaic News, vol. 26, no. 3 (March 2007), p. 6, and previous issues.

5. Cristina L. Archer and Mark Z. Jacobson, “Evaluation of Global Windpower,” Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 110 (30 June 2005); Jean Hu et al., “Wind: The Future is Now,” Renewable Energy World, July–August 2005, p. 212.

6. D. L. Elliott, L. L. Wendell, and G. L. Gower, An Assessment of the Available Windy Land Area and Wind Energy Potential in the Contiguous United States (Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest Laboratory, 1991); C. L. Archer and M. Z. Jacobson, “The Spatial and Temporal Distributions of U.S. Winds and Wind Power at 80 m Derived from Measurements,” Journal of Geophysical Research, 16 May 2003.

7. W. Musial and S. Butterfield, Future of Offshore Wind Energy in the United States (Golden, CO: DOE, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), June 2004); U.S. electricity consumption from DOE, EIA, Electric Power Annual 2005 (Washington, DC: November 2006); Garrad Hassan and Partners, Sea Wind Europe (London: Greenpeace, March 2004).

8. “Wind Market Global Status 2007,” Windpower Monthly, March 2007, p. 37; GWEC, “Global Wind Energy Markets Continue to Boom—2006 Another Record Year,” press release (Brussels: 2 February 2007).

9. GWEC, Global Wind 2006 Report (Brussels: 2007), p. 7; share of wind generated electricity in Denmark calculated using BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 (London: 2007), and GWEC, op. cit. this note, p. 4, with capacity factor from NREL, Power Technologies Energy Data Book (Golden, CO: DOE, August 2006); Germany statistics from Janet L. Sawin, “Wind Power Blowing Strong,” in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2006–2007 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2006).

10. Flemming Hansen, “Denmark to Increase Wind Power to 50% by 2025, Mostly Offshore,” Renewable Energy Access, 5 December 2006.

11. GWEC, op. cit. note 9.

12. Laurie Jodziewicz, American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), e-mail to author, 16 October 2007; GWEC and Greenpeace, op. cit. note 1.

13. A 2-megawatt wind turbine operating 36 percent of the time generates 6.3 million kilowatt-hours of electricity per year; capacity factor from NREL, op. cit. note 9; wholesale electricity price from DOE, Wholesale Market Data, electronic database at www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity, updated 4 October 2007; wind royalties are author’s estimates based on Union of Concerned Scientists, “Farming the Wind: Wind Power and Agriculture,” at www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy.

14. Renewable Fuels Association (RFA), Homegrown for the Homeland: Ethanol Industry Outlook 2005 (Washington, DC: 2005); corn per acre and ethanol per bushel approximated from Allen Baker et al., “Ethanol Reshapes the Corn Market,” Amber Waves, vol. 4, no. 2 (April 2006), pp. 32, 34.

15. Godfrey Chua, “Wind Power 2005 in Review, Outlook for 2006 and Beyond,” Renewable Energy Access, 6 January 2006.

16. United States and Spain from GWEC, op. cit. note 9; “Spanish Wind Power Industry Attacks New Rules,” Reuters, 2 February 2007; “EWEA Aims for 22% of Europe’s Electricity by 2030,” Wind Directions (November/December 2006), p. 34; a 1-megawatt wind turbine operating 36 percent of the time generates 3.15 million kilowatt-hours and the average U.S. home consumes 10,000 kilowatt-hours per year; average energy consumption per U.S. home from DOE, EIA, Regional Energy Profile—U.S. Household Electricity Report (Washington, DC: July 2005); capacity factor from NREL, op. cit. note 9.

17. Carl Levesque, “Wind Companies Make $10 Billion Investment Commitment,” Wind Energy Weekly, vol. 25, no. 1211 (6 October 2006); “Texas Decision Could Double Wind Power Capacity in the U.S.,” op. cit. note 2.

18. Paul Klein, Media Relations Group, Southern California Edison, discussion with Jonathan Dorn, Earth Policy Institute, 22 October 2007; Jim Dehlsen, Clipper Wind, discussion with author, 30 May 2001; wind farm proposals from Kathy Belyeu, AWEA, discussion with Jonathan Dorn, Earth Policy Institute, 22 October 2007.

19. “British Columbia,” WT News, Wind Today, 1st Quarter 2007, p. 30; “UK Plans World’s Biggest Offshore Windfarm,” Reuters, 18 May 2007; Yang Jianxiang, “China Showing All Signs of Major Market Status,” Windpower Monthly, March 2007, p.38; Germany offshore wind from EWEA, Wind Force 12 (Brussels: 2002); “China to Build Offshore Wind Complex,” Associated Press, 15 August 2005.

20. Mike Jacobs, “U.S. States Hatch Solution to Transmission ‘Chicken-Egg’ Dilemma,” Renewable Energy Access, 7 May 2007.

21. Ibid.; Leonard Anderson, “Western U.S. States Plan Major Power System,” Reuters, 5 April 2005; Carl Levesque, “SPP Study Envisions Transmission Project Linking 13,000 MW of Wind with East,” Wind Energy Weekly, vol. 26, no. 1247 (6 July 2007); Carl Levesque, “Now Proposed at PUC, CAPX 2020 Transmission Project Would Have Big Wind Implications,” Wind Energy Weekly, vol. 26, no, 1253 (17 August 2007).

22. “Pan-European Wind Energy Grid Proposed,” Renewable Energy Access, 10 May 2006; “Airtricity and ABB Push for European Offshore Supergrid,” Wind Directions, July/August 2006, p. 7; Chris Veal, European Offshore Supergrid Proposal: Vision and Executive Summary (Dublin: Airtricity, 2006); an average European home consumes 5,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity per year, from State of the Environment in the South West 2006 (Rotherham, U.K.: Environment Agency, 2006), p. 22.

23. Wind capacity from GWEC, op. cit. note 9, pp. 4, 8; population data from U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Population Database, at esa.un.org/unpp, updated 2007.

24. Ward’s Automotive Group, World Motor Vehicle Data 2006 (Southfield, MI: Ward’s Automotive Group, 2006), p. 218; price of installed wind turbine from Windustry, “How Much Do Wind Turbines Cost?,” at www.windustry.org, viewed 21 October 2007; “Trillions in Spending Needed to Meet Global Oil and Gas Demand, Analysis Shows,” International Herald Tribune, 15 October 2007.

25. Harry Braun, The Phoenix Project: Shifting from Oil to Hydrogen with Wartime Speed, prepared for the Renewable Hydrogen Roundtable, World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, 10–11 April 2003, pp. 3–4.

26. Christian Parenti, “Big is Beautiful,” The Nation, 7 May 2007.

27. Prius mileage based on new Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates at www.fueleconomy.gov, viewed 23 August 2007; fleet average from Robert M. Heavenrich, Light Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2007 (Washington, DC: EPA, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, September 2007).

28. Fuel savings are author’s estimates updated from Lester R. Brown, “The Short Path to Oil Independence,” Eco-Economy Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 13 October 2004); Lionel Laurent, “Boeing’s Dreamliner, Airbus’s Nightmare,” Forbes, 9 July 2007; cost of electricity equivalent to a gallon of gas from Roger Duncan, “Plug-In Hybrids: Pollution-Free Transport on the Horizon,” Solar Today, May/June 2007, p. 46.

29. Amory B. Lovins et al., Winning the Oil Endgame: Innovation for Profits, Jobs, and Security (Snowmass, CO: Rocky Mountain Institute, 2004), p. 64.

30. Michael Kintner-Meyer et al., Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids—Part 1: Technical Analysis (Richland, WA: DOE, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 2006).

31. Randy Swisher, AWEA, e-mail to author, 16 October 2007.

32. Joseph Romm and Peter Fox-Penner, Plugging into the Grid: How Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles Can Help Break America’s Oil Addiction and Slow Global Warming (Washington, DC: Progressive Policy Institute, 2007); Roger Duncan, “Plug-In Hybrids: Pollution-Free Transport on the Horizon,” Solar Today, May/June 2007, p. 47.

33. Martin Crutsinger, “U.S. Trade Deficit a Record 6.5% of Economy,” Associated Press, 15 March 2007.

34. Lisa Braithwaite, Plug-In Partners National Campaign, e-mail to Jonathan Dorn, Earth Policy Institute, 19 October 2007.

35. Ben Hewitt, “Plug-in Hybrid Electric Cars: How They’ll Solve the Fuel Crunch,” Popular Mechanics, May 2007; Pacific Gas and Electric Company, Greening Fleets with New Technologies, at www.pge.com/about_us/environment, viewed 20 October 2007.

36. General Motors (GM), “Fuel Solutions,” at www.chevrolet.com/electriccar, viewed 23 October 2007; percent of Americans who live within 20 miles of their workplace from Plug-In Partners National Campaign, Building a Market for Gas-Optional Flexible-Fuel Hybrids, brochure (Austin, TX: 2007).

37. China water heaters calculated from REN21, op. cit. note 2, p. 21; Kennedy, Jr., op. cit. note 2; Ryan Hodum, “Kunming Heats Up as China’s ‘Solar City’,” China Watch (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute and Global Environmental Institute, 5 June 2007); tripling of solar water heaters from Emma Graham-Harrison, “China Solar Power Firm Sees 25 Percent Growth,” Reuters, 4 October 2007.

38. Rooftop solar water heaters have a capacity of 0.7 kilowatts per square meter and a capacity factor similar to rooftop photovoltaics (22 percent); nominal capacity from European Solar Thermal Industry Federation (ESTIF), “Worldwide Capacity of Solar Thermal Energy Greatly Underestimated,” ESTIF News (10 November 2004); capacity factor from NREL, op. cit. note 9.

39. Ole Pilgaard, Solar Thermal Action Plan for Europe (Brussels, Belgium: ESTIF, 2007); Janet L. Sawin, “Solar Industry Stays Hot,” in Worldwatch Institute, op. cit. note 9, p. 38.

40. Pilgaard, op. cit. note 39; Sawin, op. cit. note 39.

41. Uwe Brechlin, “Study on Italian Solar Thermal Reveals a Surprisingly High Contribution to EU Market: 130 MWth in 2006,” press release (Brussels: ESTIF, 24 April 2007); Sawin, op. cit. note 39; Les Nelson, “Solar-Water Heating Resurgence Ahead?” Solar Today, May/June 2007, p. 28; Pilgaard, op. cit. note 39.

42. Nelson, op. cit. note 41, p. 27.

43. Japan solar heating from Sawin, op. cit. note 39; population data from U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 23.

44. Population data from U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 23; China calculated from REN21, Renewables 2005 Global Status Report (Washington, DC: REN21 Secretariat and Worldwatch Institute, 2006); REN21, op. cit. note 2, p. 21; Turkey from Sawin, op. cit. note 39; nominal capacity from ESTIF, op. cit. note 38.

45. Nelson, op. cit. note 41, p. 26.

46. Ibid., p. 28.

47. Solar cell installations and growth rate calculated from Worldwatch Institute, op. cit. note 4; Maycock, op. cit. note 4; Anne Kreutzmann et al., “Exceeding Expectations: Survey Indicates more than 1 GW Installed in Germany in 2006,” PHOTON International, April 2007.

48. Travis Bradford, “23rd Annual Data Collection—Final,” PV News, vol. 26, no. 4 (April 2007), p. 9; Travis Bradford, “World Cell Production Grows 40% in 2006,” PV News, vol. 26, no. 3 (March 2007), pp. 6–8.

49. International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2006 (Paris: 2006); “Power to the Poor,” The Economist, 10 February 2001, pp. 21–23.

50. “Solar Loans Light Up Rural India,” BBC News, 29 April 2007.

51. IEA, Light’s Labour’s Lost: Policies for Energy-efficient Lighting (Paris: 2006), pp. 201–02; Kuwait oil production from DOE, EIA, International Petroleum Monthly, at www.eia.doe.gov/emeu, updated 12 October 2007.

52. Christoph Podewils, “As Cheap as Brown Coal: By 2010, a kWh of PV Electricity in Spain Will Cost Around 9¢ to Produce,” PHOTON International, April 2007.

53. Solar cell production (sales) from Worldwatch Institute, op. cit. note 4; Maycock, op. cit. note 4; people who lack electricity from IEA, op. cit. note 49.

54. Sybille de La Hamaide, “Bangladesh Seeks World Bank Loan for Solar Power,” Reuters, 26 April 2007.

55. Dana Childs, “South Korea Building Largest Solar Installation in World,” Inside Greentech, 10 May 2007; “Santander and BP Solar Partner in Major Euro Photovoltaic Project,” Green Car Congress, 24 April 2006; Google, Solar Panel Projects at www.google.com/corporate, updated 20 October 2007; “Google Sets Precedent for Clean Business Practices,” Renewable Energy Access, 23 October 2006.

56. Sawin, op. cit. note 39; Sara Parker, “Maryland Expands RPS: 1,500 MW Solar by 2022,” Renewable Energy Access, 12 April 2007.

57. “Largest Solar Thermal Plant in 16 Years Now Online,” Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy News, 13 June 2007; Asjylyn Loder et al., “FPL Unveils Plans for a Solar Plant,” St. Petersburg Times, 27 September 2007.

58. Georg Brakmann et al., Concentrated Solar Thermal Power—Now! (Brussels: European Solar Thermal Power Industry Association, 2005).

59. “Algeria Aims to Export Power—Solar Power,” Associated Press, 11 August 2007; “Algeria Plans to Develop Solar Power for Export,” Reuters, 19 June 2007.

60. “Algeria Aims to Export Power—Solar Power,” op. cit. note 59.

61. Charles F. Kutscher, Tackling Climate Change in the U.S.—Potential Carbon Emissions Reductions from Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by 2030 (Boulder, CO: American Solar Energy Society, 2007).

62. Brakmann et al., op. cit. note 58.

63. Karl Gawell et al., International Geothermal Development Directory and Resource Guide (Washington, DC: GEA, 2003); REN21, op. cit. note 2, p. 17.

64. Geothermal growth rate calculated using Eric Martinot, Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Research and Education Center, e-mail to Joseph Florence, Earth Policy Institute, 12 April 2007, and REN21, op. cit. note 44; Philippines geothermal electricity from “World Geothermal Power Up 50%, New US Boom Possible,” press release (Washington, DC: GEA, 11 April 2002); total number of countries with geothermal power from Karl Gawell et al., 2007 Interim Report: Update on World Geothermal Development (Washington, DC: GEA, 1 May 2007), p. 1; El Salvador geothermal electricity from Ruggero Bertani, “World Geothermal Generation 2001–2005: State of the Art,” Proceeding of the World Geothermal Congress (Antalya, Turkey: 24–29 April 2005), p. 3.

65. Jefferson Tester et al., The Future of Geothermal Energy: Impact of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) on the United States in the 21st Century (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2006); John W. Lund and Derek H. Freeston, “World-Wide Direct Uses of Geothermal Energy 2000,” Geothermics, vol. 30 (2001), pp. 34, 46, 51, 53.

66. Tester et al., op. cit. note 65.

67. U.S. projects from Gawell et al., op. cit. note 64, p. 11; Japan from Hal Kane, “Geothermal Power Gains,” in Lester R. Brown et al., Vital Signs 1993 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1993), p. 54; DOE, EIA, “Japan,” EIA Country Analysis Brief (Washington, DC: updated August 2004).

68. Peter Janssen, “The Too Slow Flow: Why Indonesia Could Get All Its Power From Volcanoes—But Doesn’t,” Newsweek, 20 September 2004.

69. World Bank, “Geothermal Energy,” prepared under the PB Power and World Bank partnership program, www.worldbank.org, viewed 23 January 2003.

70. Iceland National Energy Authority and Ministries of Industry and Commerce, Geothermal Development and Research in Iceland (Reykjavik, Iceland: April 2006), p. 16; World Bank, op. cit. note 69.

71. Lund and Freeston, op. cit. note 65, pp. 34, 51, 53.

72. World Bank, op. cit. note 69.

73. Ibid.

74. Lund and Freeston, op. cit. note 65, pp. 46, 53.

75. U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 23.

76. Kutscher, op. cit. note 61, p. 118; EIA, “Net Generation by Other Renewables,” at www.eia.gov/cneaf, updated 10 October 2007.

77. Swedish Energy Agency, Energy in Sweden 2005 (Eskilstuna, Sweden: November 2005), p. 37.

78. Population data from U.S. Bureau of the Census, State & County Quickfacts, electronic database, at quickfacts.census.gov, updated 31 August 2007; Anders Rydaker, “Biomass for Electricity & Heat Production,” presentation at Bioenergy North America 2007, Chicago, IL, 16 April 2007.

79. World Alliance for Decentralized Energy, Bagasse Cogeneration—Global Review and Potential (Washington, DC: June 2004), p. 32; sugar production from U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Commodities and Products, electronic database, at www.fas.usda.gov/commodities, updated May 2007.

80. Waste to Energy Conference, “Power and Heat for Millions of Europeans,” press release, (Bremen, Germany: 20 April 2007).

81. Robin Pence, “AES AgriVerde: An AES-AgCert Joint Venture,” fact sheet (Arlington, VA: AES Corporation, May 2006).

82. Ray C. Anderson, presentation at Chicago Climate Exchange, Chicago, IL, 14 June 2006.

83. F.O. Licht, “World Fuel Ethanol Production,” World Ethanol and Biofuels Report, vol. 5, no. 17 (8 May 2007), p. 354; F.O. Licht, “World-Biodiesel Production (tonnes),” World Ethanol and Biofuels Report, vol. 5, no. 14 (23 March 2007), p. 291.

84. F.O. Licht, “World Fuel Ethanol Production,” op. cit. note 83; RFA, Ethanol Biorefinery Locations, at www.ethanolrfa.org, updated 28 September 2007.

85. Fiona Harvey et al., “Biofuels Growth Hit by Soaring Price of Grain,” Financial Times, 22 February 2007; Nigel Hunt, “Biofuel Bandwagon Slows as Feedstock Prices Surge,” Reuters, 5 October 2007; Bill Guerin, “European Blowback for Asian Biofuels,” Asia Times, 8 February 2007.

86. USDA, Biomass as Feedstock for a Bioenergy and Bioproducts Industry: The Technical Feasibility of a Billion-Ton Annual Supply (Washington, DC: April 2005).

87. Kutscher, op. cit. note 61, p. 127.

88. IEA, op. cit. note 49, pp. 219, 479; IEA, Member Countries and Countries Beyond the OECD, electronic database, at www.iea.org/Textbase, viewed 20 October 2007; International Rivers Network, “Frequently Asked Questions about Dams,” fact sheet (Berkeley, CA: 2004).

89. “Rural Areas Get Increased Hydro Power Capacity,” Xinhua, 7 May 2007.

90. Choe Sang-Hun, “South Korea Seeks Cleaner Energy Sources,” International Herald Tribune, 9 May 2007; Choe Sang-Hun, “As Tides Ebb and Rise, South Korea Prepares to Snare Them,” International Herald Tribune, 31 May 2007.

91. “China Endorses 300 MW Ocean Energy Project,” Renewable Energy Access, 2 November 2004; “Company Plans 200-Megawatt Tidal Power Plant in New Zealand,” Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy News, 29 November 2006; Sang-Hun, “As Tides Ebb and Rise,” op. cit. note 90.

92. Sang-Hun, “As Tides Ebb and Rise,” op. cit. note 90; Igor Veletminsky, “Anatoly Chubais Wants Russia to Lead the World in Tidal Power,” FreeEnergy.ca, 26 February 2007, at www.freeenergy.ca/news.

93. “Company Plans 200-Megawatt Tidal Power Plant in New Zealand,” op. cit. note 91; Oceana Energy Company, “Oceana Subsidiary Signs Collaborative Agreement with PG&E, City of San Francisco,” press release (Washington, DC: 19 June 2007); Dan Power, Oceana Energy Company, discussion with Jonathan Dorn, Earth Policy Institute, 22 October 2007.

94. Robert Silgardo et al., Finavera Renewables Inc.: Where There is Wind There is a Wave (Toronto, ON: Dundee Securities Corporation, 18 June 2007); Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Hydrokinetics–Issued and Pending Permits, electronic database, at www.ferc.gov/industries, updated 6 August 2007.

95. “Wave Hub Names Fourth Developer for Wave Energy Farm,” Renewable Energy Access, 15 May 2007; European Commission, Report on the Workshop on Hydropower and Ocean Energy—Part I: Ocean Energy, 13 June 2007, pp. 1, 3; IEA, op. cit. note 88.

96. Lila Buckley, “Hydropower in China: Participation and Energy Diversity Are Key,” China Watch (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute and Global Environmental Institute, 24 April 2007); “Rural Areas Get Increased Hydro Power Capacity,” op. cit. note 89; Pallavi Aiyar, “China: Another Dammed Gorge,” Asia Times, 3 June 2006; Gary Duffy, “Brazil Gives Amazon Dams Go-Ahead,” BBC News, 10 July 2007; Patrick McCully, Before the Deluge: Coping with Floods in a Changing Climate (Berkeley, CA: International Rivers Network, 2007), pp. 22–23.

97. Table 12–1 by Earth Policy Institute, with 2020 projections cited throughout chapter and with 2006 figures calculated using the following sources: rooftop solar electric systems in Worldwatch Institute, op. cit. note 4, and Maycock, op. cit. note 4; wind from GWEC, op. cit. note 8; geothermal from Gawell et al., op. cit. note 64, and from REN21, op. cit. note 2; biomass from REN21, op. cit. note 2; hydropower, including tidal and wave, from IEA, Renewables in Global Energy Supply: An IEA Fact Sheet, pp.13, 25, at www.iea.org/textbase; rooftop solar water and space heaters from IEA, Solar Heating and Cooling Program, Solar Heat Worldwide: Markets and Contribution to the Energy Supply 2005 (Paris: April 2007); REN21, op. cit. note 2; REN21, op. cit. note 44; geothermal from Tester et al., op. cit. note 65, p. 9.

98. GM, op. cit. note 36.

99. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Freight in America: A New National Picture (Washington, DC: January 2006), pp. 7, 28.

100. Ashlea Ebeling, “What Would You Pay to Stay Cool?” Forbes, 15 August 2007.

Chapter 13. The Great Mobilization

1. “New Zealand Commits to 90% Renewable Electricity by 2025,” Renewable Energy Access, 26 September 2007; carbon sequestration calculated using Vattenfall, Global Mapping of Greenhouse Gas Abatement Opportunities up to 2030: Forestry Sector Deep-Dive (Stockholm: June 2007), p. 16.

2. Greenland sea level rise from U.N. Environment Programme, Global Outlook for Ice and Snow (Nairobi: 2007), p. 103.

3. Dahle, discussion with author, State of the World Conference, Aspen, CO, 22 July 2001.

4. Redefining Progress, The Economists’ Statement on Climate Change (Oakland, CA: 1997).

5. Nicholas Stern, The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (London: HM Treasury, 2006), p. 27.

6. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Sustaining State Programs for Tobacco Control: Data Highlights 2006 (Atlanta, GA: 2006).

7. Cigarette death toll from World Health Organization, “Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD),” fact sheet (Geneva: November 2006); Campaign for Tobacco Free Kids, “Top Combined State-Local Cigarette Tax Rates,” fact sheet (Washington, DC: Campaign for Tobacco Free Kids, 1 July 2007); Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids, “Raising Cigarette Taxes Reduces Smoking, Especially Among Kids (And the Cigarette Companies Know It),” fact sheet (Washington, DC: Campaign for Tobacco Free Kids, 11 June 2007).

8. Carbon content of fuels from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Bioenergy Conversion Factors, at bioenergy.ornl.gov/papers/misc/energy_conv.html, viewed 15 October 2007.

9. Gasoline indirect cost calculated based on International Center for Technology Assessment (ICTA), The Real Price of Gasoline, Report No. 3 (Washington, DC: 1998), p. 34, and updated using ICTA, Gasoline Cost Externalities Associated with Global Climate Change: An Update to CTA’s Real Price of Gasoline Report (Washington, DC: September 2004), ICTA, Gasoline Cost Externalities: Security and Protection Services: An Update to CTA’s Real Price of Gasoline Report (Washington, DC: January 2005), Terry Tamminen, Lives Per Gallon: The True Cost of Our Oil Addiction (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2006), p. 60, and Bureau for Economic Analysis, “Table 3—Price Indices for Gross Domestic Product and Gross Domestic Purchases,” GDP and Other Major Series, 1929–2007 (Washington, DC: August 2007); U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), This Week in Petroleum (Washington, DC: various issues).

10. American Petroleum Institute, State Gasoline Tax Report (Washington DC: August 2007); DOE, EIA, “Weekly (Monday) Retail Premium Gasoline Prices, Selected Countries,” at www.eia.doe.gov/emeu, updated 9 July 2007; Gerhard Metschies, “Pain at the Pump,” Foreign Policy, July/August 2007.

11. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, “Cigarette Price Increase Follows Tobacco Pact,” Agricultural Outlook, January–February 1999.

12. DOE, op. cit. note 10; carbon tax equivalent calculated using DOE, EIA, Emissions of Greenhouse Gasses in the United States 2001 (Washington, DC: 2002), p. B–1; DOE EIA, Annual Energy Review 2006 (Washington, DC: 2007), p. 359.

13. Markus Knigge and Benjamin Gorlach, Effects of Germany’s Ecological Tax Reforms on the Environment, Employment and Technological Innovation: Summary of the Final Report of the Project (Berlin: Ecologic Institute for International and European Environmental Policy, August 2005); German Wind Energy Association, A Clean Issue—Wind Energy in Germany (Berlin: May 2006), p. 4; Donald W. Aitken, “Germany Launches its Transition: How One of the Most Advanced Industrial Nations is Moving to 100 Percent Energy from Renewable Sources,” Solar Today, March/April 1005, pp. 26–29.

14. Estimate of Swedish tax shifting based on Paul Ekins and Stefan Speck, “Environmental Tax Reform in Europe: Energy Tax Rates and Competitiveness,” in press, 2007; Ministry of Finance, Sweden, “Taxation and the Environment,” press release (Stockholm: 25 May 2005); household size from Target Group Index, “Household Size,” Global TGI Barometer (Miami: 2005); population from U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Population Database, at esa.un.org/unpp, updated 2007; Andrew Hoerner and Benoît Bosquet, Environmental Tax Reform: The European Experience (Washington, DC: Center for a Sustainable Economy, 2001); European Environment Agency, Environmental Taxes: Recent Developments in Tools for Integration, Environmental Issues Series No. 18 (Copenhagen: 2000); environmental tax support from David Malin Roodman, The Natural Wealth of Nations (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1998), p. 243.

15. “New Hampshire Town Boosts Recycling with Pay-As-You-Throw,” Environment News Service, 21 March 2007; Tom Miles, “London Drivers to Pay UK’s First Congestion Tax,” Reuters, 28 February 2002; Energy Council, Energy Efficiency Policies and Indicators (London: 2001), Annex 1; Howard W. French, “A City’s Traffic Plans Are Snarled by China’s Car Culture,” New York Times, 12 July 2005.

16. N. Gregory Mankiw, “Gas Tax Now!” Fortune, 24 May 1999, pp. 60–64.

17. Australia in John Tierney, “A Tale of Two Fisheries,” New York Times Magazine, 27 August 2000; South Australian Southern Zone Rock Lobster Fishery Management Committee, Southern Zone Rock Lobster Annual Report 2005–2006 (Adelaide, South Australia: October 2006), p. 2.

18. Edwin Clark, letter to author, 25 July 2001.

19. André de Moor and Peter Calamai, Subsidizing Unsustainable Development (San José, Costa Rica: Earth Council, 1997); Barbara Crossette, “Subsidies Hurt Environment, Critics Say Before Talks,” New York Time, 23 June 1997.

20. World Bank, World Development Report 2003 (New York: Oxford University Press, 2003), pp. 30, 142; International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2006 (Paris: 2006), p. 279.

21. Belgium, France, and Japan from Seth Dunn, “King Coal’s Weakening Grip on Power,” World Watch, September/October 1999, pp. 10–19; coal subsidy reduction in Germany from Robin Pomeroy, “EU Ministers Clear German Coal Subsidies,” Reuters, 10 June 2002; DOE, EIA, International Energy Annual 2005 (Washington, DC: June–October 2007), Table E.4; Craig Whitlock, “German Hard-Coal Production to Cease by 2018,” Washington Post, 30 July 2007; China, Indonesia, and Nigeria subsidy cuts from GTZ Transport Policy Advisory Service, International Fuel Prices 2007 (Eschborn, Germany: April 2007), p. 3.

22. John Whitelegg and Spencer Fitz-Gibbon, Aviation’s Economic Downside, 3rd ed. (London: Green Party of England & Wales, 2003); dollar conversion based on August 2007 exchange rate in International Monetary Fund, “Representative Exchange Rates for Selected Currencies in August 2007,” Exchange Rate Archives by Month, at www.imf.org/external, viewed 16 August 2007; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 14.

23. Doug Koplow, Subsidies in the U.S. Energy Sector: Magnitude, Causes, and Options for Reform (Cambridge, MA: Earth Track, November 2006).

24. Fishery subsidy value includes “bad” subsidies and fuel subsidies as estimated in Fisheries Center, University of British Columbia, Catching More Bait: A Bottom-Up Re-Estimation of Global Fisheries Subsidies (2nd Version) (Vancouver, BC: The Fisheries Center, 2006), p.21.

25. Table 13–1 calculated with fossil fuel and transport carbon reductions using IEA, op. cit. note 20, p. 493, industry reductions using IEA, Tracking Industrial Energy Efficiency and CO₂ Emissions (Paris: IEA, 2007), avoided deforestation and aforestation reductions from Vattenfall, op. cit. note 1, and soil carbon sequestration based on conservative estimates in Rattan Lal, “Soil Carbon Sequestration Impacts on Global Climate Change and Food Security,” Science, vol. 304 (11 June 2004), pp. 1623–27; deaths from World Health Organization, “Air Pollution,” fact sheet 187 (Geneva: revised September 2000).

26. IEA, op. cit. note 20, p. 493.

27. Vattenfall, op. cit. note 1.

28. Ibid.

29. Lal, op. cit. note 25.

30. Figure of 400 parts per million calculated using fossil fuel emissions from G. Marland et al., “Global, Regional, and National CO2 Emissions,” in Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC), ORNL, 2007), and land use change emissions from R. A. Houghton and J. L. Hackler, “Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land-Use Changes,” in Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: CDIAC, ORNL, 2002), with decay curve cited in J. Hansen et al., “Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate: A GISS ModelE Study,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 7 (2007), pp. 2287–312.

31. “Ditch the Tie Japan Tells Workers as ‘Cool Biz’ Drive Begins,” Agence France-Presse, 1 June 2006; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 14.

32. Richard Register, e-mail to author, 16 October 2007.

33. Gidon Eshel and Pamela A. Martin, “Diet, Energy, and Global Warming,” Earth Interactions, vol. 10, no. 9 (2006); USDA, Production Supply and Distribution, electronic database, at www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline, updated 12 October 2007; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. note 14.

34. Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, Renewable Energy-Employment Effects: Impact of the Expansion of Renewable Energy on the German Labor Market (Berlin: June 2006); “German Plan to Close Coal Mines,” BBC News, 29 January 2007; Michael Levitin, “Germany Says Auf Wiedersehen to Nuclear Power, Guten Tag to Renewables,” Grist.com, 12 August 2005.

35. Commission on Weak States and U.S. National Security, On the Brink: Weak States and U.S. National Security (Washington, DC: Center for Global Development, 2004), p. 27.

36. The U.S. Commission on National Security in the 21st Century, Road Map for National Security: Imperative for Change (Washington, DC: February 2001), p. 53.

37. Commission on Weak States and U.S. National Security, op. cit. note 35, pp. 30–32.

38. “Roosevelt’s Tree Army: A History of the Civilian Conservation Corps,” at www.cccalumni.org/history1.html, viewed 18 October 2007.

39. For information on mobilization, see Francis Walton, Miracle of World War II: How American Industry Made Victory Possible (New York: Macmillan, 1956).

40. Franklin Roosevelt, “State of the Union Address,” 6 January 1942, at www.ibiblio.org/pha/7-2-188/188-35.html.

41. Harold G. Vatter, The US Economy in World War II (New York: Columbia University Press, 1985), p. 13; Alan L. Gropman, Mobilizing U.S. Industry in World War II (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, August 1996).

42. Doris Kearns Goodwin, No Ordinary Time—Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt: The Home Front in World War II (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1994), p. 316; “Point Rationing Comes of Age,” Business Week, 19 February 1944.

43. “War Production—The Job ‘That Couldn’t Be Done’,” Business Week, 5 May 1945; Donald M. Nelsen, Arsenal of Democracy: The Story of American War Production (New York: Harcourt, Brace and Co., 1946), p. 243.

44. Goodwin, op. cit. note 42.

45. Sir Edward Grey quoted in Walton, op. cit. note 39.

46. Jeffrey Sachs, “One Tenth of 1 Percent to Make the World Safer,” Washington Post, 21 November 2001.

47. Table 13–2 complied from Tables 7–1 and 8–1; see associated discussion in Chapter 7 for more information on social goals and funding.

48. See Table 7–1 and associated discussion in Chapter 7 for more information.

49. See Table 8–1 and associated discussion in Chapter 8 for more information.

50. Table 13–3 compiled from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Military Expenditure Database, electronic database at www.sipri.org, updated June 2007, with U.S. military expenditure from Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, “Analysis of the Pentagon’s Fiscal Year 2006 Supplemental Funding Request,” at www.armscontrolcenter.org, viewed 14 September 2007.

51. SIPRI, op. cit. note 50.

52. Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other War on Terror Operations Since 9/11 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 16 July 2007); Linda Bilmes and Joseph Stiglitz, The Economic Costs of the Iraq War: An Appraisal Three Years After the Beginning of the Conflict (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, February 2006).

53. For more information on plug-in hybrids and wind energy, see Chapter 12.

54. SIPRI, op. cit. note 50.

55. Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (New York: Penguin Group, 2005); Ronald Wright, A Short History of Progress (New York: Carroll and Graf Publishers, 2005).