Page numbers refer to the print edition but are hyperlinked to the appropriate location in the e-book.
Note: Figures and tables are indicated by f and t after page numbers.
Afghanistan: conflict in, 22, 64–65, 165, 207, 210; costs of war in, 117; Foreign Military Financing (FMF) from Obama administration to, 128; NATO’s role in, 2; US budget implications of military operations in, 116
Africa: Asia–Africa Growth Corridor, 151–52, 186, 191; Belt and Road Initiative and, 62, 79, 148
American public opinion: on global economic integration, 113–15; on traditional US alliances, 70–71
anarchic status of international system, 9, 10–11, 90
Aquino, Benigno S., III, 198
Arroyo, Gloria Macapagal-, 80
ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), 160–64; “ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific” (2019), 161–62; ASEAN Way, 161; building norms, 164; building regional order, 161–62; centrality to US interests, 163–64; Chinese interference efforts and, 47, 56; Defence Ministers’ Meeting–Plus, 158, 163–64; economic growth of member countries, 104, 147, 172; EU seeking free trade agreement with, 178; importance of, 105; India and, 183; infrastructure investment in, 149; members of, 160; Obama administration and, 121; Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (proposed free trade agreements), 54, 75–76; rivalries interfering with cohesion of, 145; Taiwan relations and, 84; Vietnam and, 223, 225
ASEAN Studies Centre (ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute), 69
Asian Defence Ministers’ Meeting–Plus, 121–22
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, 217
“Asia Pacific Stability Initiative” (McCain proposal), 117
Asia-Pacific Technology Fund (TAP-TF), 152
Association of Bilateral European Development Finance Institutions, 151
Association of Southeast Asian Nations. See ASEAN
Australia, 164–73; ANZUS Treaty (1951), 207, 210–11; ASEAN free trade agreement with, 76; Australia–United States Free Trade Agreement, 165; China-US relations, effect of, 58; Chinese relations with, 47, 51, 84, 166; competing politically with China, 168–69; defense capabilities and budget of, 85, 86, 141–42, 169–71; economic growth and competition with China, 73f, 166, 172–73; EU seeking free trade agreement with, 178; Great White Fleet (1908), 165; inclusion in multilateral initiatives, 157–58, 228; independence of, 17–18; Indonesian relations with, 145; investment in United States, 166; Japanese relations with, 84; key regional partner role of, 83, 152; Malabar exercises, participation in, 184; Malabar exercises (US-India maritime exercises), participation in, 184; maritime capabilities of, 133, 179, 200; meddling by China in politics, media, and academia in, 98, 167–69; multilateral missile defense involving, 193; NATO relations with, 177; natural disaster response in, 250n37; OPIC investment and development in, 151; Partnership Interoperability Initiative (PII) and, 180; Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad consisting of US, Japan, Australia, and India), 151, 157–58, 206, 207; Security Intelligence Organisation, 168; stagnant economy in, 104; Taiwan relations with, 84; technological development in, 86; telecommunication development in, 172; Trump’s effect on, 69, 82; US investment in, 166; US relations with, 19, 106, 164–67
authoritarianism: China’s ambitions and, 33, 46, 48, 51, 248n14; receding from liberalism as opportunity for, 99; sovereignty issues and, 98; US willingness to work with authoritarian states, 19–20; Vietnamese government and, 222
balance of power: allowing setting of order’s norms, laws, and institutions, 13; evolution in Asia, 14, 23, 25–28, 233n14; US allies in Indo-China and intraregional balancing, 102–3. See also heterarchy
Bangladesh: independence of, 234n26; Soviet relations with, 234n26; Taiwan relations with, 84
bellum omnium contra omnes, 11, 233n5
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Asia–Africa Growth Corridor as competition for, 151, 191; foreign policy implications of, 45, 54, 62, 79, 118, 229; full scope of, 148, 150f; importance of, 75; Italy joining, 174; regional economic bandwagoning and, 75
Bhutan: Indian-Chinese standoff over (2017), 184; Taiwan relations with, 84
Brunei: South China Sea, territorial dispute over islands in, 55; UK military base as possibility in, 179
Burkina Faso, switching diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, 217
Burma, infrastructure investment in, 149
Cambodia: Chinese relations with, 78; independence of, 17; US relations with, 121
Canada-China relations, 47
CCP (Chinese Communist Party): climate change and, 30; as coordinating force for China’s military, economic, social, and political interests, 45–46; foreign policy and, 46, 51, 54, 59; ideological goals of, 39–41, 44; Nineteenth Party Congress (2017), 26, 34, 59; political power of, 35, 48–49, 98; United Front Department, 58, 98; United Front Work Department, 51, 169
Center for American Progress, 265n60
Center for a New American Security: Asia Program, 36–37; study on China’s exceptionalist approach, 56
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, US, 217–18
Central Asia: Belt and Road Initiative and, 79; Chinese military focus on, 32; Chinese policy in, 54
Central Europe: China–CEEC (Central and Eastern European Countries) summit (16+1 format), 174–75; Russian aggression toward, 116
Chicago Council on World Affairs, 70–71
China: allies and soft power of, 47, 51, 58; ambitions of, 33–38, 51, 107–8; ASEAN free trade agreement with, 76; authoritarianism and, 33, 48, 51, 248n14; belligerence of, 84, 85, 87, 140–41, 211; capitalism in, 35; “Century of Humiliation,” 16, 35, 40–41; challenge to regional liberal order, 6, 7, 28–49, 52, 94; China-centric regional order as vision of, 45–46, 149; Chinese Coast Guard, 135, 136t; Cold War hostility of, 20, 36; “Community of Common Destiny” in, 39; compared with disaggregated, market-led United States, 248n14; compared with rise of great powers in the past, 38–39; containment of, 3, 45, 137, 145, 206; cooperation promises used to leverage its interests, 102, 125; Cultural Revolution, 20, 28; cyberspace, regulation of, 109; diplomatic posts, compared with United States, 118; domestic policies as priority in, 40, 47, 51; economic challenges facing, 48–49; economic coercion of other countries by, 80–81, 98, 100; exceptionalist approach to international institutions, 42–43, 44, 51, 54, 56, 59, 61, 63; foreign policy of, 51, 59–60, 78–79, 100; freedom of navigation and, 42, 52, 61; GDP growth, 31, 31f, 48, 72, 78, 214; global financial crisis (2008–9) not affecting, 65; growth and dominance of, 2, 31–33, 74, 99, 147, 214; harmony vs. uniformity in, 44; historical background of foreign relations in, 14–22; ideological change after Maoism, 29; illiberal norms, promotion of, 107–8, 125, 155, 168, 172, 229; infrastructure investment in Indo-Pacific from, 151; international implications for order led by, 12, 33, 44–45, 49, 60; Liaodong Peninsula, Japanese control of, 16; maritime capabilities of, 131–33, 132f, 134f, 140–41, 218; meddling in politics and businesses in Indo-Pacific, 98, 125, 142, 167–69, 191, 208, 209; middle-income trap and, 48–49; Middle Kingdom and balance of power in Asia, 14–16; military power and expenditures of, 32, 41, 47–48, 72, 86, 108, 115, 126, 127f, 140–41, 218; Ministry of Commerce, 75; Ministry of Rites, 15; problems and challenges facing, 47–49; protectionism and government subsidies in, 42; Qing Dynasty, 16; regional implications of China’s rise, 13, 53–63, 99–103, 221; regional policy of, 49–51, 78–81; salami-slicing strategies of, 48, 61–62; Sinocentrism, 14–16, 91; sources of power of, 31–33; space flight capabilities of, 154; Tang Dynasty, 15; trade policy, 42, 78; unique aspects of great power of, 38–47; US allies in Indo-Pacific purchasing weapons from, 128; US recognition of, 212; Western colonialism in, 16; Zongli Yamen, 15. See also Belt and Road Initiative; People’s Liberation Army; names of other countries for China’s relations with them
China–CEEC (Central and Eastern European Countries) summit (16+1 format), 174–75
China’s Arrival (report), 37
China-US relations: changing ideology of China and, 28–30; Chinese efforts to delegitimize US global authority and, 48; competitive stance to United States, 52–53, 99–103, 148, 152, 161, 166, 169, 196; empowerment of moderates in China and, 36; external balancing in Indo-Pacific and, 81–83; growing tension in, 37; implications of China’s position and challenges for, 49–53; joint statement (2009) insuring mutual respect, 33; likelihood of conflict, 33; Nixon’s opening of, 20, 28–29; post–Cold War, 30; preconceptions about, 35; regional effect of, 58; split in US views on, 38; Steinberg on strategic reassurance in, 37; trade relations with, 31; US stance, effect of, 36, 228
climate change: China-US relations and, 30; Taiwan policy on, 218
Cold War: alliances formed to counter communism in, 2, 3, 19; China’s hostility during, 20; dysfunctionality and instability of Indo-Pacific during, 25; India’s nonaligned approach in, 182, 183; opening of US-Chinese relations by Nixon, 20, 28–29; rhetoric of defending the Free World, 19; strategy of containment in, 18–19; US conflicts in Asia during, 18
Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (2018), 83–84, 191, 209
Conference on Interaction Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (2014), 45
cyberspace and cybersecurity, regulation of, 109, 176, 205
Darwin (Royal Australian Air Force Base), 171, 179
Defense Department (US): budget allocation for Asia, 117; budget cuts post global financial crisis (2008–9), 65; “China Military Report” (2017), 133; Indo-Pacific Strategy Report, 53; on naval balance in East Asia, 131–32, 134f; Southeast Asia Maritime Security Initiative, 127; Title 10 funds for foreign military assistance and, 130; war-related costs since 9/11, 64–65. See also military capabilities and presence
deterrence and patron’s dilemma, 89–90
DFC (US International Development Finance Corporation), 124
diplomatic coordination: as essential to strategy, 5, 6, 145, 153–55; use of Convention on the Law of the Sea to settle disputes, 96–97
Djibouti, Chinese military base in, 32, 41
Dominican Republic, switching diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, 217
drug trafficking, control of, 135
duality in US strategy toward Indo-Pacific, 227–28
East Asia: China’s policy in, 32, 54, 133; coast guards’ role in, 135; Indian policy in, 180–81; naval balance in, 132, 132f; North Korean threat to, 110; significance of American dominance in, 25; stability of, 23; US policy in, 145, 234n26; US security budget for, 128
East China Sea: American public support for Japan in dispute over, 71; Australian forces in, 170; Chinese ideological approach to, 41; Chinese military focus on, 32; competition between United States and China for regional dominance and, 101; Convention on the Law of the Sea, applicability of, 96–97; diplomatic coordination to address Chinese assertiveness in, 158; dispute between Japan and China over, 54–55, 58, 79, 132; Indian security role in, 189; Japanese security role in, 194; resolution of territorial issues in, 50; salami-slicing strategies of China in, 61–62
Eastern Europe: Belt and Road Initiative and, 79, 174; China–CEEC (Central and Eastern European Countries) summit (16+1 format), 174–75; US budgetary implications created by Russian aggression in, 116
economic growth: ASEAN, 104, 147, 172; Australia, 73f, 166, 172–73; China, 31, 31f, 48, 72–74, 73f, 78, 147, 214; GDP levels, 25–26, 27f, 66f, 72, 73f, 182; India, 182; Indo-Pacific, 2, 25–26, 27f, 72, 73f, 105; stagnant economy’s effects, 104, 105; Taiwan, 214; US strength and resilience, 66, 66f, 72, 87–88, 114, 147
economic integration: benefits of, 105; as essential to strategy, 5, 6; Indian policies and, 186–87; Japanese policies and, 190, 195–96; liberal order and, 19, 97; New Zealand policies and, 209–10; South Korean policies and, 206; of US allies in Indo-Pacific, 122–24, 147–53; US policy in response to, 113–15, 148–49
Egypt receiving US Foreign Military Financing (FY 2018), 128
engagement of United States, 5, 67, 90–91, 95, 103, 119–25; negatives associated with reduction in, 7, 38, 87, 89; Obama’s pivot and, 67–69, 81–82; protecting against Trump’s disengagement, 118–19. See also military capabilities and presence; US allies in Indo-Pacific
entrapment risk and patron’s dilemma, 89–90
Europe, 173–80; Asia–Africa Growth Corridor and, 152; Asian strategy of US, role in, 4, 173, 177; Belt and Road Initiative and, 62, 148; China’s rise, implications for, 174–75; comparison of Asia to, 9–10, 12, 74; cyberspace, regulation of, 109; engagement in Indo-Pacific, 173–77; EU free trade agreements with Indo-Pacific nations, 178; EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement, 175; “Europe Deterrence Initiative,” 117; military capabilities and presence of, 178–79; overcoming geography as impediment to Indo-Pacific role of, 177–78; post–World War II status of wars in, 22; power politics and, 173; significance of American dominance in, 25; space weapons, international laws and norms on, 108; US disagreements on foreign policy issues with, 181; Vietnamese relations with, 225. See also specific regions and countries
Foreign Affairs (periodical), 29, 38
Foreign Ministers’ Meeting on Security and Stability on the Korean Peninsula (2018), 144
France: as American ally, 1; Chinese relations with, 47; decolonization and, 17; engagement in Indo-Pacific, 84, 174; Indo-Pacific strategy (2019), 175–76; military power of, 178–79; in World War I and World War II, 2
Friends of the Lower Mekong Initiative, 173
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, 21
Germany: Chinese relations with, 47, 176; engagement in Indo-Pacific, 174, 176; reunification of, 20–21; Wilhelmine, 38
global financial crisis (2008–9), 65
Great East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere, 17
Great Recession (2008–9), 37, 65, 166
heterarchy, 4, 71–77; competition between United States and China for regional dominance in terms of, 101; defined, 72; overlapping spheres of influence and, 74–77, 84
hollow leadership scenario, 91
Homeland Security Department (US), 65
immigration by boat, control of, 135
India, 180–89; Act East policy of, 180, 183, 187; American public support for, 71; Armed Forces, 182, 188; ASEAN free trade agreement with, 76; Asia-Pacific Technology Fund (TAP-TF) and, 152; Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geospatial Intelligence (not concluded, with United States), 188; bilateral investment treaty (BIT) with United States, need for, 186; bureaucratic inefficiencies in, 185; Chinese fiction with, 184; Chinese power and influence on, 104, 181, 182, 183–84; Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (not concluded, with United States), 188; corruption level in, 124, 185; defense capabilities and budget of, 85, 105, 141–42, 182, 187–89; Defense Technology and Trade Initiative, 187; economic growth, 182; economic integration and, 186–87; EU seeking free trade agreement with, 178; inclusion in multilateral initiatives, 157–58, 228; independence of, 17; Indian Navy, 189; infrastructure investment in Indo-Pacific from, 149–50, 151; Iranian relations with, 181; Japanese relations with, 186, 195; Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (2016), 187–88; Look East policy of, 183; “Make in India” initiative, 186; Mobile Hybrid Power Sources, 187; Next Generation Protective Ensembles, 187; nonaligned approach of, 182, 183, 185; Pakistan as threat to, 182, 183, 188; Philippines and, 202; Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad consisting of US, Japan, Australia, and India), 151, 157–58, 206, 207; regional leadership role of, 83, 207; Russian relations with, 181, 182; South China Sea and, 101; Taiwan relations with, 84; Trump’s effect on, 69; US bilateral defense agreement (2016), 187–88; US free trade agreement, need for, 149, 186; US–Indian Strategic and Commercial Dialogue, 184–85; US relations with, 181, 184; Vietnamese relations with, 84, 157, 221, 222
India-Japan Coordination Forum for Development of North East, 151–52
Indian Ocean: Australian security role in, 170; Chinese interests in, 32; diplomatic coordination to address Chinese assertiveness in, 158; French interests in, 178; India’s security role in, 181, 188–89; Japan’s security role in, 194; natural disaster response in, 109; US military presence in, 171
Individual Partnership and Cooperation Programme agreements (NATO), 179–80
Indonesia: Australian relations with, 145; Chinese power and influence as threat to, 104; defense budget of, 105; disaster response units as part of military in, 250n36; independence of, 17; Japanese infrastructure investment in, 151; multinational carrier group, participation in, 228; Tangguh LNG Facility, 151; Train III Project, 151; trilateral joint maritime cooperation with Malaysia and Philippines, 157; Trump’s effect on, 69; US Maritime Security Initiative (2018) to, 128; US military aid to, 127; US relations with, 155
Indo-Pacific: Asia–Africa Growth Corridor, 151–52; bandwagoning with China, 78–81, 102; Belt and Road Initiative and, 79; changing balance of power in, 2–3, 25–28, 37, 87; Chinese challenges to US leadership in, 45, 52, 60, 99–103, 229; Chinese geopolitical influence in, 32–33, 50; Chinese threat to liberal order in, 54; economic growth and military expenditures, 2, 25–26, 27f, 72, 73f, 105; European engagement in, 173–77; external regional balancing in, 83–84; heterarchy of, 71–77, 87; importance of region, 2, 52; Indo-Pacific Technology Fund, proposal for, 196; measures of power and economic strength in, 3–4; military investments, increase in, 84–86; natural disaster response in, 109, 251n37; resilience of US alliances and partnerships in, 87–88; scenarios of US engagement in, 90–91; uncertainty about Chinese future, effect of, 49; unique strategic environment of, 9; US allies resorting to hedging strategies in, 77f, 77–86; US commitment to, 61, 64–71, 227–28. See also US allies in Indo-Pacific; specific countries
infrastructure investment: Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), 45, 60, 148, 173, 184, 195, 229; in Indo-Pacific, 149–53, 195, 206; in 16+1 countries, 175
institutional weakness in Asia, 12
intelligence: artificial intelligence development, 142, 155; Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geospatial Intelligence, 188; drone use for, 130
International Civil Aviation Organization, 217
International Institute for Strategic Studies, 133, 134f
International Labor Organization, 217
international law, norms, and institutions: ASEAN’s role, 164; benefits to China for working within, 59, 108; China undermining, ways to prevent, 102; cyberspace, regulation of, 109; multipolar structure possibly undermining, 104; outer space, 108, 154; South China Sea territorial claims of China in contravention of, 55, 56–57; thwarting use of or threatened use of force, 63; US allies working with United States to sustain and strengthen, 93, 95, 96, 108, 141, 170. See also exceptionalism; specific conventions and institutions
International Monetary Fund, 173, 182
interregional cooperation, Chinese approach to, 54, 60, 102
intraregional rivalries, dangers of, 5, 7
Iran: China-US relations and, 30; Indian relations with, 181; nuclear crisis, 116
Iraq, aid from Taiwan to refugees from, 212
ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, ASEAN Studies Centre, 69
isolationist scenario, 90–91
Israel: European disagreement with US policy in, 181; receiving US Foreign Military Financing (FY 2018), 128
Italy, joining Belt and Road Initiative, 174
Japan, 189–96; American public support for, 71; ASEAN free trade agreement with, 76; Asia–Africa Growth Corridor and, 191; Asia-Pacific Technology Fund (TAP-TF) and, 152; Australian relations with, 84; Chinese relations with, 15, 16, 47, 100; Coast Guard, 194; Democratic Security Diamond proposal (2012), 157; East China Sea dispute with China, 54–55, 58, 62, 71, 79, 81, 132; economic integration and, 190, 195–96; EU free trade agreements with, 178; free trade agreement with US, need for, 149, 195; General Security of Military Information Agreement (2016), 144; Guidelines for Japan–US Defense Cooperation (2015 update), 190, 192; India-Japan Coordination Forum for Development of North East, 151–52; Indian relations with, 186, 195; infrastructure investment in Indo-Pacific from, 149–52, 195; island defense capabilities of, 140–41, 194; leadership role in Indo-Pacific, especially filling vacuum left by United States, 190–91; Malabar exercises (US-India maritime exercises), participation in, 184; maritime capabilities of, 131–32, 132f, 133; Maritime Self-Defense Force, 139; Meiji era’s rapid military and economic expansion, 16–17; military capabilities of, 84, 85, 86, 95, 100, 111, 142, 190, 192–94; missile defense systems of, 141, 193; NATO relations with, 177, 180; natural disaster response in, 109, 251n37; North Korea as threat to, 110, 139, 141, 144, 192–93; Partnership Interoperability Initiative (PII) and, 180; postwar recovery of, 3, 234n24; Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad consisting of US, Japan, Australia, and India), 151, 157–58, 206, 207; Russian relations with, 182; security cooperation of, 192–94; Self-Defense Force, constitutional amendment to expand, 85, 190, 194; South Korean relations with, 106, 141, 143–44; stagnant economy in, 104; strike capability of, 192–93; technological development in, 86; trilateral missile defense cooperation (US, Japan, and South Korea), 141, 143–44; “Triple Intervention” against Chinese invasion of, 16; Trump’s effect on, 69, 80, 83; US–Japan Mutual Defense Treaty, 194; US military based in, 106, 190; US relations with, 16–17, 19, 82, 106, 190, 234n24; US trade relations with, 149, 190, 195; Vietnamese relations with, 225
Japan Bank for International Cooperation, 151
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (Iran), 116
Joint Strategic Vision for the Indo-Pacific and Indian Ocean region, 184
Jordan receiving US Foreign Military Financing (FY 2018), 128
Justice Department, US, 80
Khalifa, Mohammed Jamal, 197
Korea: Choseon Dynasty’s relations with Japan, 16; comfort women in World War II, 143, 144; history of Chinese relations with, 15, 20, 205; independence from Japanese control, 17; US history with, 3. See also North Korea; South Korea
Korea Aerospace Industries, 142
Laos: Chinese relations with, 47, 78; independence of, 17; US relations with, 121
liberal order: attractiveness to developing states, 12, 229; authoritarian states supporting in some aspects, 20; benefits to China for working within, 58; challenges to sustaining, 95–96; Chinese schools of thought on, 54, 59; conceptual background of, 10–13; conservative order vs., 11; definition of “order,” 11; interests in strengthening, 4–5, 229; lack of alignment between United States and its allies on, 234n24; meaning of “liberalism,” 18; post–World War II United States and, 21, 43, 88; power allowing creation of, 13, 178; powerful states without interest in, 13; sources of, 12; strategic vision of, 92; Trump and, 95–96; US allies working with United States to sustain, 93, 103, 174, 191–92, 224; US role in maintaining international status of, 18, 21, 87–88, 89, 227
Lissner, Rebecca Friedman, 92
Lotte (South Korean conglomerate), 79
Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index, 72, 74
Malabar exercises (US-India maritime exercises), 184
Malaysia: Chinese investment in, 78; independence of, 17; joint military exercises with China, 80; South China Sea, territorial dispute over islands in, 55; trilateral joint maritime cooperation with Indonesia and Philippines, 157; US military aid to, 127; US relations with, 80, 121, 155
Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, disappearance of (2014), 137
Manus Island naval base, 170
Marine Corps, US: Commandant’s “Planning Guidance,” 117; at Darwin, Australia, base, 171, 179
Middle East: Belt and Road Initiative and, 79; Chinese military base in, 32; post-9/11 conflicts in, 64; significance of American dominance in, 25; US budget implications of instability in, 116; US policies in, effect on Muslim nation relations in Southeast Asia, 155; US security assistance to, 128
military capabilities and presence: antisatellite weapons and space weapons, 108; of Australia, 85, 86, 141–42, 169–71; of China, 32, 41, 47–48, 72, 86, 108, 115, 126, 127f, 140–41, 218; coast guards, 135–36, 136t; Cobra Gold military exercise, 211; drones, sales of, 129–30; as essential to strategy, 6; of Europe, 178–79; Foreign Military Financing (FMF) from Obama administration, 128–29; increase in military expenditures, 2, 26, 27f; of India, 85, 105, 141–42, 182, 187–89; Indo-Pacific countries expanding, 84–86, 125–26, 126f; island defenses, 140–41, 170, 194; of Japan, 84, 85, 86, 95, 100, 111, 142, 190, 192–94; Malabar exercises (US-India maritime exercises), 184; maritime security, 131–38, 132f, 134f, 136t, 153, 179, 190, 194, 200, 204, 225; no longer sole determinant of national power, 75; nuclear-powered submarines, 111, 182, 204; Pacific Dragon exercise (2016), 139; radar and surveillance installations for maritime domain awareness, 137–38; shoreline defenses, 140–41, 225; Southeast Asia Maritime Security Initiative, 127; of South Korea, 85, 111, 203–5; stagnant economy’s effects on, 105; of Taiwan, 213, 218–20; of Thailand, 142; of US allies in Indo-Pacific, 105–6; US dominance, 32, 63, 66–67, 74, 115–16, 117, 126, 126f; US Excess Defense Articles program, 131; US–Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, 199–200; US reduction of military presence in Asia, 106, 113; US Seventh Fleet, 132, 132f; US Third Fleet, 132; of Vietnam, 225; war-related costs of United States since 9/11, 65. See also Defense Department (US); People’s Liberation Army (PLA); THAAD missile defense system; weapons and disarmament
Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), 129–30
Mohammed, Khalid Sheikh, 197
Moro Islamic Liberation Front, 197
MTCR (Missile Technology Control Regime), 129–30
multinational institutions: weak environment in Asia for, 9–10. See also ASEAN
multipolar power structure, 48, 104–7
Myanmar: Chinese power and influence as threat to, 104; conflict in, 22–23; US relations with, 121
National Defense Strategy (US), 52
National Security Strategy (US), 52
NATO: China’s rise, implications of, 176–77; compared with Asian institutional environment, 10; engagement in Indo-Pacific, 174, 176–77, 180; expansion of, 21; Individual Partnership and Cooperation Programme agreements, 179–80; post–Cold War role of, 2; September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, response to, 112–13; Trump on costs of, 231n1
Navy, US: USS Carl Vison in Vietnam, 222; USS Sampson in New Zealand, 210
Nepal-Taiwan relations, 84
New Zealand, 207–11; ANZUS Treaty (1951), 207, 210–11; ASEAN free trade agreement with, 76; Australian relations with, 209; Belt and Road Initiative and, 79; Chinese relations with, 47, 51, 208, 209; Cobra Gold military exercise, participation in, 211; corruption level in, 124; economic cooperation of, 209–10; EU relations with, 209; EU seeking free trade agreement with, 178; foreign direct investment in, 209; independence of, 17–18; meddling by China in, 98, 208, 209; Partnership Interoperability Initiative (PII) and, 180; USS Sampson visiting, 210; security cooperation of, 210–11; Taiwan relations with, 84, 215; US free trade agreement, need for, 209; US relations with, 207
Nippon Export and Investment Insurance, 151
North Atlantic Treaty Organization. See NATO
North Korea: belligerence of, 23, 58, 64, 84, 85, 87, 94, 109–12, 189, 202–4; budgetary implications for US response to, 117; chemical and biological weapons in, 138; containment of, 3, 157, 169; cyberspace threat of, 205; development of ballistic missiles, 110, 138–39, 141, 193, 202; Japan’s role in defense against, 139, 141, 144; lagging development of other Southeast Asian countries, 74; People’s Army, 202; Trump seeking Chinese help with, 119; Trump’s relations with, 70
NSC-68 (“United States Objectives and Programs for National Security,” 1950), 18
Obama, Barack: ASEAN relations and, 121; Asian pivot and strategic rebalancing, 2, 67–69, 81–82; Australia-US relations and, 171; China-US relations and, 30, 36–37; on collective action and its benefits, 227; economic policy in relation to foreign policy, 114; enhanced engagement in Indo-Pacific, 121; failure to build on multilateral or bilateral agreements in Indo-Pacific, 148; Indian policy, 184; Japan-US relations and, 190; military aid to Southeast Asia, 126–27; Philippines-US relations and, 198; security assistance to Asia, 128; South Korean-Japanese relations and, 143–44
Okinawa, US military base in, 106
ONGC (Indian state-run energy company), 222
Operation Enduring Freedom–Philippines, 197
order: character defined by norms, laws, customs, and institutions, 13; conservative understanding of, 11; definition of, 11; liberal understanding of, 11; power as distinct from, 13
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 147
Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC), 151
Pakistan: Chinese relations with, 47; conflict in, 22; independence of, 17; India seeing as threat, 182, 183, 188; Taiwan relations with, 84; US military operations in, 65; US relations with, 234n26
Panama, switching diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, 217
Paris Peace Conference (1919), 16
Partnership Interoperability Initiative (PII), 180
peaceful resolution of international disputes, 19, 91, 96, 97, 138, 162
Peace Research Institute (Oslo), 22
Permanent Court of Arbitration on Philippines dispute with China in South China Sea (2016), 97, 138, 153–54, 198, 224–25
PetroVietnam Exploration Production Corporation, 222
Philippines, 196–202; Chinese relations with, 56, 80, 196, 198–99; Coast Guard, 200; Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro, 197; conflict in, 23; corruption level in, 124; diplomatic coordination involving, 158, 198; disaster response units as part of military in, 198, 251n37; engagement of US allies with, 202; Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA 2014), 198, 200; independence of, 17; Japanese infrastructure investment in, 150–51; Japanese invasion of, 17; Makati-Pasay-Taguig Mass Transit System (Manila), 151; maritime capabilities of, 200; North Korean ties with, 111; Operation Enduring Freedom–Philippines, 197; Sierra Madre (ship) in Spratley Islands, 201; South China Sea, territorial dispute over islands in, 55–56, 58, 62, 79, 81, 97, 197–99; trilateral joint maritime cooperation with Indonesia and Malaysia, 157; Trump’s effect on, 69, 83; US Maritime Security Initiative (2018) to, 128; US military aid to, 127; US–Philippines Alliance, 196–200; US–Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, 199–200; US relations with, 19, 80, 106, 196, 201–2; Xi’s effect on, 83
Qiushi (journal) publishing Xi’s vision for China, 34
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad consisting of US, Japan, Australia, and India), 151, 157–58, 206, 207
Racial Equality Proposal (1919), 16
Rao, P. V. Narasimha, 183
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (proposed), 54, 75–76, 118
regional economic networking, 83–84
regional stability: ASEAN objectives for, 162; benefits of, 24–26, 105; implications of China’s rise in, 13, 53–63, 99–103, 221; importance of, 3, 5, 7; Japan’s promotion of, 190, 192; measures to achieve, 19–21, 92–93; North Korean threat to, 23, 58, 64, 84, 85, 87, 94, 109–12, 189, 202–4; threats to, 87, 91; Vietnam and, 223–24. See also US allies in Indo-Pacific
resilience: of Indo-Pacific alliances and partnerships with United States, 87–88; of US economy, 66, 66f, 72, 114
Russia: competition with United States, 52; cyberspace, regulation of, 109; Indian relations with, 181, 182; Japanese relations with, 182; Japanese war against, 16; meddling in US 2016 elections, 98; promoting illiberal norms, 107–8; space flight capabilities of, 154; strings attached to defense sales by, 142; Trump and, 70; US allies in Indo-Pacific purchasing weapons from, 128; US budgetary implications created by territorial aggression of, 116; Vietnamese relations with, 221; as weapons supplier, 218
São Tomé and Príncipe, 217
satellite capabilities, 108, 154
scenarios of US engagement: hollow leadership, 91; isolationism, 90–91; unilateralism, 90
security: creation of principled security network, 94–95; cybersecurity, 109, 176; diplomatic coordination to advance, 153–54; missile defense systems, 138–40; radar and surveillance installations for maritime domain awareness, 137–38; Trump’s undermining of, 69; United States providing, 64–71, 94–95, 116, 127–31; US allies contributing to in order to defend liberal order, 103, 192–94. See also intelligence; military capabilities and presence
September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, US strategy for response to, 64, 112–13
Shanghai Cooperation Organization, 45, 60
Shangri-La Dialogue (2016), 94–95
shared vision for regional order: as essential to strategy, 5
Singapore: Asia-Pacific Technology Fund (TAP-TF) and, 152; Chinese relations with, 47; corruption level in, 124; EU free trade agreements with, 178; independence of, 17; Individual Partnership and Cooperation Programme and, 180; Malabar exercises (US-India maritime exercises), participation in, 184; multinational carrier group, participation in, 228; Taiwan free trade agreement with, 215; UK military base as possibility in, 179
16+1 format (China–CEEC), 174–75
socialism in China, 35, 40, 59
South Asia: Belt and Road Initiative and, 79; Chinese expansion in, 46; Chinese military focus on, 32; Indian relations with, 181; Japanese investment in, 151; maritime defense in, 137–38; Taiwan relations with, 84, 215; US security assistance to, 128
South China Sea: ASEAN role and, 163–64; Australian forces in, 170; Chinese maritime presence in, 122, 133, 194; Chinese prioritizing interests in, 32, 41–42, 46, 194, 224; competition between United States and China for regional dominance and, 101; conflict between Philippines and China in, 55–56, 58, 62, 79, 81, 97, 197–99; conflict between Vietnam and China over maritime oil drilling, 34, 60, 62, 222, 223–24, 225; Convention on the Law of the Sea, applicability of, 96–97, 198, 225; diplomatic coordination to address Chinese assertiveness in, 158, 198, 201; Indian interest in, 101, 183, 189; Japanese interest in, 194; military installations of China in, 60; military installations of Philippines in, 201; military spending of nations adjacent to, 85–86; Permanent Court of Arbitration on Philippines dispute with China in South China Sea (2016), 97, 138, 153–54, 198, 224–25; resolution of territorial issues in, 50; salami-slicing strategies of China in, 61–62; South Korean interest in, 206; sovereignty issues and, 98; territorial dispute over islands in, 55–56, 58, 79, 80, 221; US failure to endorse arbitration court ruling, 153–54
Southeast Asia: Australia’s defense role in, 171; Chinese expansion in, 46; democracy, promotion of, 98–99; economic and military power in, 74; European investment in, 178; Indian relations with, 183; Japan’s role in, 150–51, 190, 195; military spending in, 85–86; Obama’s focus on, 121, 126–27; security challenges in, 133–35; Taiwan and, 215; terrorism’s spread in, 2; US Foreign Military Financing to, 128; US relations with, 82
Southeast Asia Maritime Security Initiative, 127
South Korea, 202–7; American public support for, 71; ASEAN free trade agreement with, 76; Asia-Pacific Technology Fund (TAP-TF) and, 152; authoritarian governance in, 19; Belt and Road Initiative and, 79; Chinese relations with, 58, 100, 205; competition between United States and China for regional dominance and, 101, 206; cyberspace stability and, 205; diplomatic coordination involving, 158; economic liberalism in, 29, 206; EU free trade agreements with, 178; General Security of Military Information Agreement (2016), 144; infrastructure investment in Indo-Pacific by, 206; Japanese relations with, 106, 141, 143–44; Kill Chain and Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation plans, 204; KORUS (US-South Korea free trade agreement), 253n68; maritime capabilities of, 204; military capabilities and spending in, 85, 111, 203–5; missile defense systems, 50, 141, 205; multilateral missile defense involving, 193; NATO relations with, 177, 180; natural disaster response in, 250n36; operational control (OPCON) of South Korean military, transfer from United States to, 85, 203; Partnership Interoperability Initiative (PII) and, 180; South Korean Navy, 139, 204; stagnant economy in, 104; Taiwan relations with, 84; transition to democratic governance in, 19, 20, 25; trilateral missile defense cooperation (US, Japan, and South Korea), 141, 143–44; Trump’s effect on, 69, 83; US reduced military presence in, 113; US relations with, 19; US–ROK Cyber Cooperation Working Group, 205; Yusin reforms, 113. See also THAAD missile defense system
sovereignty of nation states, 98, 103, 167
Soviet Union: Bangladesh’s independence and, 234n26; Chinese as Cold War counter to, 29; collapse of, 2, 22; Indian relations with, 182. See also Cold War
Sri Lanka: Chinese investment in, 78; Taiwan relations with, 84
stability/instability paradox, 203
State Department, US: on South China Sea territorial dispute, 55; Title 22 funds for foreign military assistance and, 130; Trump administration cuts, 115, 118; war-related costs since 9/11, 65
state-owned enterprises, 42, 43
strategic changes needed, 3, 87–88; diplomatic coordination, 6; economic integration, 6; military capabilities and presence, 6, 109–12; networking alliances and partnerships, 6–8, 156–58; shared vision for regional order, 5, 228; US engagement and influence, 5, 91–92, 119–25, 228–29; US power and leadership role, 5, 228–29
Sub-Saharan Africa, counterterrorist operations in, 116
Syria: aid from Taiwan to refugees from, 212; US military operations in, 64–65
Taiwan (Republic of China), 3, 211–20; authoritarian governance in, 19; Chinese ideological approach to, 41, 58, 215; Chinese pressure to deny recognition of, 47, 78, 98, 217; Chinese trade with, 212, 213–14, 214f; competition between United States and China for regional dominance and, 101; Digital Nation and Innovative Economic Development Plan (DIGI+), 153; diplomatic coordination involving, 158; economic liberalism in, 29; economic relations of, 213–16; free trade agreements with Singapore and New Zealand, 215; health infrastructure, 217–18; independence of, 17; island defense capabilities of, 140–41, 218; loss of international recognition of, 216–18; military capabilities of, 213, 218–20; military protection from United States, 213, 218, 220; missile defense program and budget, 218–19, 219f; natural disaster response in, 212, 251n37; New Southbound Policy, 84, 215; PLA’s focus on, 32; resolution of territorial issues in, 50–51; security issues of, 128, 218–20; South China Sea, territorial dispute over islands in, 55; sovereignty issues and, 98; TPP-11 and, 216; transition to democratic governance in, 19, 20, 25, 212; Trump and, 82, 119; US free trade agreement, need for, 97, 149, 215–16; US relations with, 212; US trade with, 212–13; workforce overseas, 214–15
Taiwan Relations Act (US), 213
Tata Advanced Systems Limited, 187
technological development: Asia-Pacific Technology Fund (TAP-TF) as opportunity for US engagement, 152–53; in Australia, 86; in China, 99; diplomatic coordination and digital domain’s values, 153, 155; Indo-Pacific Technology Fund, proposal for, 196; in Japan, 86. See also cyberspace and cybersecurity
terrorism, war against: China’s role in, 52; in Philippines, 197; post-9/11 conflicts, 64, 112–13; in Southeast Asia, 2; US budgetary implications of, 116. See also Afghanistan
THAAD missile defense system: Chinese interference with negotiations over, 144; Chinese sanctions on South Korea in reaction to, 50, 58, 79; in Guam, 139; Moon seeking to deploy, 81, 84–85, 111; Trump and, 69, 118
Thailand: defense capabilities and spending, 142; infrastructure investment in, 149, 195; stagnant economy in, 104; US military aid to, 127; US relations with, 4, 19
Tibet, sovereignty issues and, 98
trade: bilateral trade agreements, Trump’s preference for, 122; China seeking to solidify its central position, 75–76, 78; European-Asian trade, 175, 178; global economic integration and US policy, 113–15; Indo-Pacific countries with free trade agreements with Europe, 178; Indo-Pacific countries with no free trade agreements with US, 149; Japan-US trade relations, 149, 190, 195; New Zealand–US trade relations, 209; regional networking, 83–84; Taiwan-US trade relations, 212; Trump policies creating power vacuum for, 76, 190–91; US failure to build on multilateral or bilateral agreements in Indo-Pacific, 147–48. See also ASEAN; Belt and Road Initiative; Trans-Pacific Partnership; World Trade Organization
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, 178
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): benefits to economic liberalism, 97, 114; converting to Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (2018), 83; New Zealand and, 209; Obama policy and, 67–69; reversing Trump policy on, possible benefits of, 148, 178; Taiwan’s desire to join, 215; talks among eleven nations, 83–84; TPP-11 as reconstituted form of, 215, 216; Trump withdrawal from, 68–69, 76, 82, 83, 118, 122, 148, 172, 191, 195, 215; Vietnam and, 97, 223
transparency and accountability, 153, 173, 229
Transparency International, 124
Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (2009), 121
Trump, Donald: “America First” philosophy of, 186; Chinese reaction to, 54, 119; compared with Xi Jinping, 83, 173; competition with China, 52–53, 102; decline of American credibility under, 68–70, 82–83, 118; drones, export controls on, 129–30; economic policy in relation to foreign policy, 114; emerging technologies, development of, 155; foreign aid and military aid cuts, 115; Foreign Military Financing (FMF) and, 128; Indo-Pacific policy (“Free and Open Indo-Pacific”), 2, 69–70, 93, 96, 118–19, 121, 187; Japan and, 80; Najib Razak’s visit to (2017), 80; NATO and, 231n1; North Korean policy, 110; private-sector initiatives as development assistance, 123–24; Quad (United States, Japan, Australia, and India) role and, 157; South Korean-Japanese relations and, 144–45; South Korean policy, 111, 118; State Department cuts, 118; TPP withdrawal, 68–69, 76, 82, 83, 118, 122, 148, 172, 191, 195, 215; undermining liberal order through ambivalence, 191; weak responses of, 95–96, 98
Turnbull, Malcolm, 82, 167
unilateralism: scenario, 90; of South Korea’s defense plans, 204; of US response to 9/11 attacks, 112–13
unipolar power structure, 21, 23; change to bipolar (or multipolar), 48, 104–7; US dominance, likelihood to continue, 66–67
United Kingdom: British empire, 17; China’s rise, implications for, 176; Chinese relations with, 47; engagement in Indo-Pacific, 174, 176; freedom of navigation and, 42; military power of, 178–79; in World War I and World War II, 2
United Nations: Chinese exceptionalism and, 56; cyberspace, regulation of, 109; role in resolving international disputes, 19, 169; Security Council, 22; UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific and the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction report (2010), 250n35; use of force and, 22. See also Convention on the Law of the Sea
United States: Better Utilization of Investments Leading to Development Act (BUILD Act, 2018), 124; exceptionalism of, 43–44; Foreign Assistance Act (1961), 129; Immigration Act (1924), 16; Taiwan Relations Act, 213; “United States Objectives and Programs for National Security” (Kennan memo, 1950), 18. See also American public opinion; China-US relations; Obama, Barack; Trump, Donald; US allies in Indo-Pacific; specific US departments and military operations; and specific Asian regions and countries for US relations
US Agency for International Development (USAID), 115
US allies in Indo-Pacific: American investment priorities in, 115–18; American leadership and power’s importance to, 112–13, 119, 145, 190–91, 228–29; American public opinion on, 70–71, 113–15; challenges facing, 94, 106–7; Chinese engagement and dangers of bandwagoning, 102; Chinese meddling in politics and business in, 98, 125, 142, 167–69, 191, 208, 209; coast guards, use of, 135–36, 136t, 194, 200; Cold War alliances, 2, 3, 19; competition between United States and China for dominance, effect on, 52–53, 99–103, 148, 152, 161, 166, 169, 196; comprehensive platform for cooperation, 120–22; coordination with, 141–45; corruption reduction, 124–25; cyberspace, regulation of, 109; defense budget and capabilities of, 105–6, 125–26, 126f, 141–45; democracy, promotion of, 98–99; diplomatic coordination with, 153–55; economic engagement with, 122–24, 147–53; hedging strategies of, 77f, 77–86; importance of, 92, 228; infrastructure partnerships and investment, opportunities for US involvement, 149–53, 195, 206; lack of alignment with United States, 96, 112, 234n23; maritime security in, 131–35, 132f, 134f; military capabilities, expansion of, 125–26, 126f; networking alliances and partnerships, 6–8, 137, 156–58; North Korean belligerence and, 23, 58, 64, 84, 85, 87, 94, 109–12, 189, 202–4; private-sector initiatives favored by Trump for, 123–24; public goods provided by United States to, 107–9; regional self-help strategies, dangers of, 103; resilience of alliances and partnerships, 87–88; rivalry and dominance of self-interests, 94, 95, 145; security assistance to, 127–31; shared vision for regional order, 93–95; sovereignty issues of, 98; space domain and cybertechnology of, 154–55; trilateral missile defense cooperation (US, Japan, and South Korea), 141, 143–44, 157; Trump’s policies’ effect on, 118–19, 121, 191; unifying to prevent China from undermining international law, norms, and institutions, 102; unintended consequences of US aid, 145–47; weapons purchasing from China or Russia, 128. See also military capabilities and presence; specific countries
US Department of ___. See name of specific department
US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), 124
Vajpayee, Atal Bihari, 183
Veterans Affairs Department (US), 65
Vietnam, 221–26; ASEAN and, 223, 225; authoritarian government of, 222; China’s rise, implications of, 221; Chinese relations with, 15, 221–22, 224–25; conflict with China over maritime oil drilling, 34, 60, 62, 222; EU free trade agreements with, 178; independence of, 17; Indian relations with, 84, 157, 221, 222; Japanese infrastructure investment in, 151; Japanese security assistance to, 225; Long Thanh International Airport project, 151; military capabilities of, 225; Russian relations with, 221; South China Sea, territorial dispute over oil drilling rights in, 34, 55, 60, 62, 221, 222, 223–24; stable regional order and, 223–24; TPP’s potential effect on, 97, 223; Trump’s effect on, 69, 83; US Maritime Security Initiative (2018) to, 128; US military aid to, 127, 222, 225; US relations with, 106, 221–22, 224–26; US trade with, 222–23
Washington Post, China watchers’ open letter to (2019), 35–36, 37
weapons and disarmament: Aegis missile defense system, 111, 139, 193; affordability for Southeast Asian militaries, 193–94; chemical and biological weapons, 138; China as missile threat to US allies, 138–40, 218; drones, sales of, 129–30, 222; missile defense in Indo-Pacific, 139, 141, 193, 218–19; Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), 129–30; North Korea’s development of ballistic missiles, 110, 138–39, 141, 193, 202; North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons, 202–3; nuclear-powered submarines, 111, 182, 204; South Korea’s development of ballistic missiles, 204; space weapons and international law, 108; US-Vietnam arms deals, 222. See also THAAD missile defense system
West Africa, Ebola outbreak in (2014), 212
Western colonialism in China, 16
World Health Assembly, 217, 218
World Health Organization, 218
world order differentiated from international order, 232n4
World Trade Organization (WTO), 21, 42–43, 96
Xi Jinping: authoritarian regime of, 48, 51; Belt and Road Initiative and, 62, 148; challenging US leadership role in Asia, 45; on China-centric regional order, 45, 46; on “Chinese Dream of National Rejuvenation,” 40; on “Community of Common Destiny,” 39; compared with Trump, 83; constitutional change of “Xi Jinping Thought for the New Era of Socialism with Chinese Special Characteristics,” 34, 40; economic reforms and, 43; European visits (2019), 174; foreign policy, 35, 40, 59; on political influence activities, 46; power of, 26, 33–34; trade policy, 42; on unification with Taiwan, 50; vision of China model, 34
Yugoslavia, NATO role in, 2