Anticipating the future of terrorism is, of course, a speculative endeavor. There are no laws of nature or scientific principles that can guide one in stating with reasonable confidence that certain things will or will not unfold in the terrorist world. Yet trying to predict the future of terrorism is a very popular exercise, with scores of scholars, research institutes, government agencies, and the like all offering their prognoses on what the future may hold.1

I attempted to do this in a book I wrote in the early 1990s on America's experience with terrorism.² At that time, as noted in chapter 7, the optimism that the United States had turned a corner in the battle against terrorism, with the return of the hostages from Lebanon and the relative quiet in anti-US terrorist attacks around the world, was shattered with the 1993 World Trade Center bombing in New York City. Foreign terrorists had come to American shores and attacked one of the world's most famous business and financial structures in one of the country's most populated cities. The illusion of invulnerability to terrorism at home that many Americans had felt was now gone. But what lay ahead? As I looked toward the future then, I got some things right and some wrong. For example, I thought that a new type of terrorist threat would emerge, which I labeled “aerial terrorism,” predicting that terrorists would begin crashing planes into buildings and other populated targets. However, I thought that, to avoid radar detection, their weapons would be low-flying, single-engine planes packed with explosives. I didn't foresee hijacked jets with thousands of gallons of fuel being the weapons, as turned out to be the case on 9/11. I also predicted that people in the coming years would be linked together through computer terminals and other devices anywhere in the world, and that this could be taken advantage of by terrorists to bypass traditional media when issuing threats and gathering information. But I didn't foresee the enormous impact that the Internet, which was still in its early stages, would eventually have on everyday life, including the lives of terrorists.

The task of predicting the future of terrorism is fraught with difficulties. The best one can hope for is to anticipate the broad outlines of where things seem headed so that law-enforcement and intelligence agencies, as well as policymakers and the public, are not caught off guard when terrorists strike next. With respect to lone wolf terrorism, several trends and developments point to it becoming more diversified, innovative, and dangerous in the years ahead.

THE EMERGING FIFTH WAVE OF GLOBAL TERRORISM

In chapter 1, I discussed how David C. Rapoport, in his classic study of the history of terrorism, observed that we have experienced four distinct waves of international terrorism since the late-nineteenth century: the Anarchist, Anti-Colonial, New Left, and Religious Waves.³ Each wave, he noted, lasted approximately forty years, with the current fourth wave, the Religious Wave, beginning in 1979. While it is too early to determine if the Religious Wave will fade from prominence like its predecessors did after its forty-year period ends, many signs point to Rapoport being correct.

The end of US involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan will somewhat erode the appeal of Islamic extremism to impressionable youths around the world. Without the image of American troops occupying or involved in wars in Muslim nations, a major part of the Islamic extremists’ current anti-US campaign will be stripped away. There will, of course, still be plenty of issues for Islamic extremists to exploit in the years ahead, including various policies and actions that the United States and other Western nations may take on future developments around the world, as well as the extremists’ continual animosity to moderate Islamic regimes. But the end of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, combined with the US killing of high-level al Qaeda operatives throughout the world, including, of course, Osama bin Laden, has left a void in the leadership structure of al Qaeda. According to renowned terrorism expert Brian Michael Jenkins, “Al Qaeda may remain lethal, but become increasingly irrelevant, confined to circulating its screeds from the edge, a reservoir of inchoate anger, a conveyer of individual discontents, which is its most likely fate.”4 Other Islamic terrorist organizations and cells, including al Qaeda affiliates such as al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), based in Yemen, and al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), based in Algeria, will undoubtedly continue to strike and carry on the struggle against all those they believe to be infidels. But it does appear that the glory days of the Religious Wave of terrorism, which was characterized by a seemingly endless flurry of incidents and threats made during the decade following the 9/11 attacks, may very well be in the past.

The Religious Wave is likely to be succeeded by a fifth wave of terrorism, which I have labeled the Technological Wave. As I discussed in chapter 1, this wave may have already emerged, as is evident by the growing impact that technology, and particularly the Internet, is having on virtually every aspect of terrorist and counterterrorist activity. The Technological Wave is empowering all types of terrorists with information and confidence to launch attacks and publicize their cause. It is creating a more level playing field, where no single religious or ideological agenda will dominate the world of terrorism. While much of the attention and effort to combat terrorism in the post-9/11 decade was aimed at Islamic extremists, other movements have been gathering steam, and they will continue to play an important role in this fifth wave of terrorism. Rob Wainwright, the director of Europol, the European Union's law-enforcement agency, put it best when he wrote the following in 2012 about the future of terrorism in Europol's annual report on trends in terrorism:

The identified drivers [of terrorism] are not static…and can evolve or vanish over time in response to political or socio-economic developments, merge with other ideologies or convictions, or be the building blocks of new and sometimes very specific and highly individual motivations. Unclear or vague motives can blur the distinction between a terrorist offence and other criminal acts.5

Terrorists of all persuasions will take even more advantage of technology in the fifth wave than they have in the past, not just because it will be available to them, but also because of the need to keep up with other terrorists, as well as with the authorities, as they plan their attacks. Terrorism is a competitive business, with groups, cells, and lone wolves needing to outdo each other with more spectacular or different types of attacks in order to ensure they achieve the publicity and reaction they desire. More powerful and sophisticated weapons and explosives will give them the opportunity to do just that. For example, AQAP, after failing twice to blow up planes in midair (once with bombs hidden in the cartridges of printers and the other time with a bomb hidden in the underwear of a suicide bomber), decided in 2012 to try again to set off an explosive with a more sophisticated detonator. The plot was uncovered only because the “suicide terrorist” who was to wear the “underwear” bomb turned out to be working for Saudi intelligence, which then turned the bomb over to the United States for forensic analysis.⁶ Similarly, a technologically sophisticated plot by Chechen extremists to sabotage the 2014 Winter Olympic Games in Russia was uncovered by Russian security personnel in 2012. The plot involved using portable surface-to-air missiles, anti-tank guided missiles, a mortar, and a flamethrower in massive terrorist attacks during the Games.⁷

The next wave of terrorism will also see more groups use the al Qaeda model for exploiting the Internet for maximum benefit, including posting videos of terrorist attacks in order to attract recruits, encouraging forums and chat rooms to keep people engaged in the struggle, and calling for lone wolves to initiate their own operations. In fact, that trend may already be underway, as reflected in the remarks of a German government official regarding a surge in left-wing terrorism in that country. “The leftists are putting out propaganda on the Internet detailing where the weak spots are in police body armour in order to wound officers,” said Uwe Schünemann, the interior minister for the German state of Lower Saxony. “They are targeting police vehicles to set ablaze. They even have tips on how to attack police officers. We are in the preliminary stages of a new wave of leftist terror.”8 Right-wing extremists are also becoming more adept at using social media and the Internet to promote their cause. As one European terrorism expert noted: “More sophisticated propaganda structures—substantially empowered by the use of social media tools—means that such [right-wing] groups have nowadays the potential to spread their ideology among a specific target audience (younger generations) which would appear to be more receptive to their message.”⁹

As other non-Islamic groups expand and improve their Internet presence, we can expect an even more diverse array of lone wolves in the years ahead. The lone wolf will have a plethora of issues and causes to choose from, ranging from environmental, ecological, and economic concerns to opposition to a wide range of various governments’ policies and actions. Ethnic-nationalist and separatist causes are additional motivations for potential lone wolf activity. Self-radicalization over the Internet will remain a possibility for a lone wolf interested in any type of issue. And as Europol's Wainwright observed, the motivations for terrorist activity are never static; they can change at any time, as old issues recede and new ones arise.

Another likely development in the fifth wave of terrorism will be the global spread of individual skills and knowledge in making and using sophisticated IEDs. As noted in chapter 1, we can expect to find many former insurgents from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan taking their skills and weapons to other countries and regions. Some will join existing terrorist groups, others will form their own cells, and still others may embark on individual attacks. The knowledge and skills they have in bomb making will eventually spread to other terrorists, who may use those skills for any cause they adopt. A harbinger of this might be the April 2011 discovery in a field in Northern Ireland of a type of IED that had been commonly used in Iraq and Afghanistan. That was the first time such a device had been found in Northern Ireland.10

The fifth wave will also likely see more women become lone wolf terrorists. Thus far, it has been a male-dominated activity, with the two most prominent female lone wolves being Colleen LaRose and Roshonara Choudhry. Both women were attracted to the jihadist cause, with Choudhry being influenced simply by downloading the sermons of Anwar al-Awlaki over the Internet. It may very well be the case that as the ability of al Qaeda recedes in terms of its face-to-face recruitment of female members (whom they then were able to turn into suicide bombers), these same women, who would have joined the extremist group or its affiliates, will instead act by themselves after heeding the online call to embark upon lone wolf attacks. And, as mentioned above, as other types of movements from all parts of the political spectrum increase their online presence and emulate the model set by Islamic extremists in attracting lone wolves via the Internet, there will likely be more lone wolf attacks by individuals, including women, who are sympathetic to all types of different causes.

FUTURE INNOVATIONS IN LONE WOLF TACTICS

I've discussed in this book how lone wolves have been among the most innovative of terrorists throughout history. From vehicle bombings to anthrax letters, they have many times been ahead of the curve in introducing new terrorist tactics. What, then, might be some of the future innovations in terrorist tactics that will originate with lone wolves? One that appears to be tailor-made for such individuals would be to commit the first major, successful cyberterrorism incident. After all, a lone wolf would not even have to leave his or her home to launch a computer-driven attack. It is somewhat surprising, then, given the technical computer knowledge that individuals possess around the world, that we have not yet seen a major lone wolf cyberterrorist attack. For that matter, considering that many terrorist groups and foreign governments are also quite knowledgeable regarding computer-software technology, it is surprising that a worst-case scenario cyberterrorist operation by anybody, such as the sabotaging of critical infrastructures through computer and information systems attacks, has not yet occurred. One explanation is that the technology that businesses and governments have put into protecting against such major attacks is still ahead of the capabilities of potential adversaries. Furthermore, since most terrorist groups rely upon the Internet for communications, recruitment, fundraising, targeting information, and such, they would be shooting themselves in the foot if they committed a major cyberterrorist attack that brought down the Internet or greatly disrupted their own use of interconnected computer systems. And a foreign government that launched a cyberterrorist attack against another state, targeting its critical infrastructures, would be susceptible to retaliatory measures from that state, if the attack could be traced back to them.11

The lone wolf, however, has none of these concerns. With the world filled with bright young people highly skilled in technical computer knowledge, it may only be a matter of time before one of them figures out a way to do what others thus far have not been able to do or have not been willing to attempt. We cannot expect that security against major cyberterrorism operations will always remain ahead of those who are trying to penetrate various computer and communications systems. It would not be surprising, therefore, if the first major cyberterrorist attack came from a creative, smart, and dangerous individual motivated by anything ranging from political, social, and religious issues to criminal or mischievous intent.

Another innovative lone wolf tactic in the coming years may involve bioterrorism. We have seen how a lone wolf was able to perpetrate the first anthrax letter attack in history. Although that's not considered a major attack, since the casualty total was relatively low (five people killed), the next time a lone wolf uses bioweapons, we may not be as lucky. I discussed some of the potential scenarios involving a mass-casualty bioterrorism attack perpetrated by a lone wolf in chapter 3. These range from dispersing anthrax spores from a low-flying airplane or crop-duster to releasing ricin in the heating, ventilation, air-conditioning (HVAC) system of a building.

There remain many doubters about the ability of not just a lone wolf but any type of terrorist to successfully launch a major bioterrorist attack, due to the technical and scientific knowledge required to handle and use biological agents. However, as I pointed out in chapter 3, former secretary of the navy Richard Danzig is correct when he writes that the hurdles for terrorists to obtain an effective bioweapon “are being lowered by the dissemination of knowledge, techniques, and equipment.”¹² This dissemination is only likely to increase in the coming years, as the Internet continues to expand, providing even more detailed information than it does today on all types of weapons, including biological warfare agents. It should also be noted that if an innovative bioterrorist attack fails, or even if it is only a hoax, it can still be significant if it generates fear throughout a country, causes the closure of government buildings and other facilities, and, perhaps most importantly, gives new ideas to other terrorists, who then improve upon the failure or hoax and commit a successful attack.¹³

Lone wolves may also be among the first to design effective ways to evade or defeat the emerging biometrics that are being used around the world. The creativity of lone wolves will allow them to test their skills in matching wits with governments and other entities that are deploying biometric devices. For example, it was a researcher who decided to create a fake finger by using the gelatin found in gummy bears candy and a plastic mold. The fake finger was able to fool fingerprint detectors four times out of five.¹⁴ Although the researcher was not a lone wolf terrorist, it still indicates that smart, creative individuals can at times succeed in evading or penetrating existing security measures.

NEW THINKING ON TERRORISM

The lone wolf is also forcing us to rethink some of our basic concepts about terrorism. This reevaluation will likely continue in the coming years, as lone wolves make their presence felt throughout the world. The individual terrorist has proven repeatedly that he or she can be as dangerous and have as much impact on societies and governments as the larger, better-financed, and better-trained terrorist organizations.

One area where the lone wolf is forcing new thinking about terrorism is with regard to the age-old problem of definitions. No longer can definitions of terrorism be restricted to actions taken by “subnational groups or clandestine agents,” as the US State Department continues to view the terrorist threat.15 The definition needs to also include the activities of lone wolves. Similarly, the tendency to restrict definitions of terrorism to those violent acts or threats that have a political or religious motive, as many definitions do, also merits change, since there are some lone wolves who are motivated mainly by financial incentives, personal revenge, or psychological problems, yet the impact of their activities is no different than had they stated they were acting in the name of some political or religious cause. The case of Bruce Ivins, who perpetrated the anthrax letter attacks partly to increase interest in his new anthrax vaccine, illustrates that point.

The lone wolf is also making it clear why viewing antiterrorism activities as part of a “war” is unrealistic. A government cannot really be at war with an individual terrorist, and such declarations only raise the status of terrorists, since it puts them on equal footing with the government that declares such a war. Yet equating terrorism with war has occurred throughout history. As noted in the introduction, following the 1920 Wall Street bombing, which turned out to be the work of a lone wolf terrorist, the New York Chamber of Commerce described the bombing as an “act of war.”¹⁶ During the 1985 hijacking of TWA Flight 847 in Lebanon, Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger stated: “It is a war and it is the beginning of war.”¹⁷ One year later, Secretary of State George Shultz said that the United States was “pretty darn close” to declaring war on Libya due to Moammar Gadhafi's terrorism activities.18 And President George W. Bush, shortly after the 9/11 attacks, referred to them as “acts of war” and launched what became known as the “global war on terror.”¹⁹

The problem with equating terrorism with war, however, is that it raises expectations for the public and others of an ultimate victory, which, as pointed out throughout this book, is unattainable, given the endless nature of terrorism. With respect to the recent global war on terror, many people in the Muslim world viewed it mainly as a war on Muslims, which Osama bin Laden and other Islamic extremists exploited to their advantage. Although the administration of President Barack Obama ended the “war” terminology in 2009 by instead referring to counterterrorism efforts as “overseas contingency operations,”²⁰ it may only be a matter of time before another administration in the United States or elsewhere brings back the “war” analogy after a major terrorist attack. Lone wolf incidents, though, will continue to serve as reminders of the fallacy of viewing terrorism as a war.

The lone wolf is also causing a reevaluation of basic counterterrorism policies. While traditional measures (such as cutting off the finances of terrorist groups, launching military strikes when necessary, and pressuring state sponsors of terrorism to end their support for various terrorists) will continue to be vital parts of any nation's battle against terrorism, these measures will not be effective against a lone wolf. However, by employing a range of preventive and responsive strategies, as discussed in chapter 6, progress can be made in dealing with the lone wolf terrorist threat.

Finally, the lone wolf is changing the way we think about how somebody becomes a terrorist. No longer can theories and concepts about the radicalization of individuals be limited to considering only sociopolitical and economic explanations like poverty, unemployment, a sense of hopelessness among youths in a given society, revenge against perceived injustices, oppression, and other conditions. Likewise, we must dispense with the notion that radicalization is solely due to the efforts of charismatic leaders and other group members who recruit or brainwash impressionable individuals with face-to-face meetings. Explanations must now also include the impact of the Internet on virtually anybody who is curious about the world and finds information, websites, chat rooms, and other material online that can somehow accelerate the process of taking violent action in the name of some cause. The lone wolf may also develop out of a combination of personal and psychological problems that make certain individuals more susceptible to engaging in terrorist activities.

The world of lone wolf terrorism will continue to evolve in the coming years. We cannot predict the new issues that may arise to propel certain people into terrorism. It could be global economic and political developments, certain policies by various governments, or just a local issue that angers a particular individual. But whatever the cause, the lone wolf will try to remain anonymous and in the background until he or she strikes. Uncovering the secret world of the lone wolf terrorist will remain one of the major challenges in the battle against this form of terrorism.