Inside the Crystal Ball, First Edition, How to Make and Use Forecasts by Harris, Maury -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

Cover Title Page Copyright Acknowledgments Introduction: What You Need to Know about Forecasting

Notes

Chapter 1: What Makes a Successful Forecaster?

Grading Forecasters: How Many Pass? Why It's So Difficult to Be Prescient Bad Forecasters: One-Hit Wonders, Perennial Outliers, and Copycats Success Factors: Why Some Forecasters Excel Does Experience Make Much of a Difference in Forecasting? Notes

Chapter 2: The Art and Science of Making and Using Forecasts

Judgment Counts More Than Math Habits of Successful Forecasters: How to Cultivate Them Judging and Scoring Forecasts by Statistics Notes

Chapter 3: What Can We Learn from History?

It's Never Normal Some Key Characteristics of Business Cycles National versus State Business Cycles: Does a Rising Tide Lift All Boats? U.S. Monetary Policy and the Great Depression The Great Inflation Is Hard to Forget The Great Moderation: Why It's Still Relevant Why Was There Reduced Growth Volatility during the Great Moderation? Notes

Chapter 4: When Forecasters Get It Wrong

The Granddaddy of Forecasting Debacles: The Great Depression The Great Recession: Grandchild of the Granddaddy The Great Recession: Lessons Learned The Productivity Miracle and the “New Economy” Productivity: Lessons Learned Y2K: The Disaster That Wasn't The Tech Crash Was Not Okay Forecasters at Cyclical Turning Points: How to Evaluate Them Forecasting Recessions Forecasting Recessions: Lessons Learned Notes

Chapter 5: Can We Believe What Washington, D.C. Tells Us?

Does the U.S. Government “Cook the Books” on Economic Data Reports? To What Extent Are Government Forecasts Politically Motivated? Can You Trust the Government's Analyses of Its Policies' Benefits? The Beltway's Multiplier Mania Multiplier Effects: How Real Are They? Why Government Statistics Keep “Changing Their Mind” Living with Revisions Notes

Chapter 6: Four Gurus of Economics: Whom to Follow?

Four Competing Schools of Economic Thought Minskyites: Should We Keep Listening to Them? Monetarists: Do They Deserve More Respect? Supply-Siders: Still a Role to Play? Keynesians: Are They Just Too Old-Fashioned? Notes

Chapter 7: The “New Normal”: Time to Curb Your Enthusiasm?

Must Forecasters Restrain Multiyear U.S. Growth Assumptions? Supply-Side Forecasting: Labor, Capital, and Productivity Are Demographics Destiny? Pivotal Productivity Projections Notes

Chapter 8: Animal Spirits: The Intangibles behind Business Spending

Animal Spirits on Main Street and Wall Street Can We Base Forecasts on Confidence Indexes? Business Confidence and Inventory Building How Do Animal Spirits Relate to Job Creation? Confidence and Capital Spending: Do They Move in Tandem? Animal Spirits and Capital Spending Notes

Chapter 9: Forecasting Fickle Consumers

Making and Spending Money How Do Americans Make Their Money? Will We Ever Start to Save More Money? Why Don't Americans Save More? More Wealth = Less Saving Do More Confident Consumers Save Less and Spend More? Does Income Distribution Make a Difference for Saving and Consumer Spending? Pent-Up Demand and Household Formation Notes

Chapter 10: What Will It Cost to Live in the Future?

Whose Prices Are You Forecasting? Humans Cannot Live on Just Core Goods and Services Sound Judgment Trumps Complexity in Forecasting Inflation Should We Forecast Inflation by Money Supply or Phillips Curve? Hitting Professor Phillips' Curve A Statistical Lesson from Reviewing Phillips Curve Research Notes

Chapter 11: Interest Rates: Forecasters' Toughest Challenge

Figuring the Fed Federal Open Market Committee What Is the Fed's “Reaction Function”? Is the Fed “Behind the Curve”? Can the Fed “Talk Down” Interest Rates? Bond Yields: How Reliable Are “Rules of Thumb”? Professor Bernanke's Expectations-Oriented Explanation of Long-Term Interest Rate Determinants Supply and Demand Models of Interest Rate Determination When Will OPEC, Japan, and China Stop Buying Our Bonds? What Will Be the Legacy of QE for Interest Rates? What Is the Effect of Fed MBS Purchases on Mortgage Rates? Will Projected Future Budget Deficits Raise Interest Rates? Notes

Chapter 12: Forecasting in Troubled Times

Natural Disasters: The Economic Cons and Pros How to Respond to a Terrorist Attack Why Oil Price Shocks Don't Shock So Much Market Crashes: Why Investors Don't Jump from Buildings Anymore Contagion Effects: When China Catches Cold, Will the United States Sneeze? Notes

Chapter 13: How to Survive and Thrive in Forecasting

Surviving: What to Do When Wrong Hold or Fold? Thriving: Ten Keys to a Successful Career Notes

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