[Yale Series in Economic and Financial History 01] • A Great Leap Forward · 1930s Depression and U.S. Economic Growth by Field, Alexander J. -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

A GREAT LEAP FORWARD

CONTENTS PREFACE INTRODUCTION

CONCEPTS AND METHODS OUTPUT MEASURES A NOTE ON MEASUREMENT ONLINE RESOURCES A BRIEF NOTE ON THE HISTORY OF GROWTH ACCOUNTING

Part One A NEW GROWTH NARRATIVE

1 THE MOST TECHNOLOGICALLY PROGRESSIVE DECADE OF THE CENTURY

2 THE INTERWAR YEARS

THE MANUFACTURING REVOLUTION OF THE 1920S DISEMBODIED TECHNICAL CHANGE IN THE 1930S MANUFACTURING’S CONTRIBUTIONS TO TFP GROWTH DISAGGREGATION OF PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, 1929–1941 TRANSPORT AND PUBLIC UTILITIES SPILLOVERS FROM PUBLIC INVESTMENT WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE 1919–1929 DISAGGREGATION OF TFP GROWTH RAILS AND ROADS: HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

3 THE SECOND WORLD WAR

THE TIMING OF ECONOMIC MOBILIZATION SECTORAL REDISTRIBUTIONS OF LABOR SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: ADJUSTMENTS TO 1941 AND 1948 PRODUCTIVITY LEVELS

4 THE GOLDEN AGE AND BEYOND

MANUFACTURING THE END OF THE GOLDEN AGE A TALE OF TWO TRANSITIONS

5 THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY BOOM

6 FIN DE SIÈCLE: THE LATE NINETEENTH CENTURY IN THE MIRROR OF THE TWENTIETH

Part Two EXTENSIONS AND REFLECTIONS

7 PROCYCLICAL TFP

THE EVIDENCE FOR PROCYCLICAL TFP PROCYCLICALITY IN TFP AND OUTPUT PER HOUR A STATISTICAL ARTIFACT? AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND THE CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR OF TFP SHORT-RUN ECONOMIES OF SCALE AND INCREASING RETURNS

8 THE EQUIPMENT HYPOTHESIS

THE MODERN STATEMENT OF THE EQUIPMENT HYPOTHESIS WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE ECONOMIC HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES? SEVEN PEAK-TO-PEAK EPISODES, 1919–2007 THE ASYMMETRY CLAIM

9 GENERAL-PURPOSE TECHNOLOGIES

WHAT GPTS PROMISE GPT CRITERIA PROBLEMS WITH THE GPT CONCEPT TOO MANY GPTS? HAVE GPT CRITERIA BEEN CONSISTENTLY APPLIED? DO THE GPT CRITERIA SEPARATE THE CONSEQUENTIAL FROM THE INCONSEQUENTIAL? IS THE EXPERIENCE OF IT REALLY GENERALIZABLE TO ELECTRIC POWER AND STEAM? WHAT GPT GAVE THE GREAT DEPRESSION ITS CHARACTER?

Part Three HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES ON 2007–2010

10 FINANCIAL FRAGILITY AND RECOVERY

THE ORIGINS OF FINANCIAL FRAGILITY MINSKY AND FINANCIAL FRAGILITY CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND INCOME TO CAPITAL DURING THE DEPRESSION

11 UNCONTROLLED LAND DEVELOPMENT AND THE DURATION OF THE DEPRESSION

12 DO ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS HAVE A SILVER LINING?

TFP GROWTH IN THE DEPRESSION AND TODAY THE ADVERSITY/HYSTERESIS EFFECT RAILROADS AND THE SILVER LINING

EPILOGUE APPENDIX: A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF GROWTH ACCOUNTING METHODS

BIAS OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE

NOTES

INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 1: THE MOST TECHNOLOGICALLY PROGRESSIVE DECADE OF THE CENTURY CHAPTER 2: THE INTERWAR YEARS CHAPTER 3: THE SECOND WORLD WAR CHAPTER 4: THE GOLDEN AGE AND BEYOND CHAPTER 5: THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY BOOM CHAPTER 6: FIN DE SIÈCLE CHAPTER 7: PROCYCLICAL TFP CHAPTER 8: THE EQUIPMENT HYPOTHESIS CHAPTER 9: GENERAL-PURPOSE TECHNOLOGIES CHAPTER 10: FINANCIAL FRAGILITY AND RECOVERY CHAPTER 11: UNCONTROLLED LAND DEVELOPMENT AND THE DURATION OF THE DEPRESSION CHAPTER 12: DO ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS HAVE A SILVER LINING?

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