This Time Is Different · Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Reinhart, Carmen M. -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

Cover Half title Title Copyright Dedication Contents List of Tables List of Figures List of Boxes Preface Acknowledgments Preamble: Some Initial Intuitions on Financial Fragility and the Fickle Nature of Confidence Part I Financial Crises: An Operational Primer

1 Varieties of Crises and Their Dates

2 Debt Intolerance: The Genesis of Serial Default

Debt Thresholds Measuring Vulnerability Clubs and Regions Reflections on Debt Intolerance

3 A Global Database on Financial Crises with a Long-Term View

Prices, Exchange Rates, Currency Debasement, and Real GDP Government Finances and National Accounts Public Debt and Its Composition Global Variables Country Coverage

Part II Sovereign External Debt Crises

4 A Digression on the Theoretical Underpinnings of Debt Crises

Sovereign Lending Illiquidity versus Insolvency Partial Default and Rescheduling Odious Debt Domestic Public Debt Conclusions

5 Cycles of Sovereign Default on External Debt

Recurring Patterns Default and Banking Crises Default and Inflation Global Factors and Cycles of Global External Default The Duration of Default Episodes

6 External Default through History

Part III The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt and Default

7 The Stylized Facts of Domestic Debt and Default

Domestic and External Debt Maturity, Rates of Return, and Currency Composition Episodes of Domestic Default Some Caveats Regarding Domestic Debt

8 Domestic Debt: The Missing Link Explaining External Default and High Inflation

9 Domestic and External Default: Which Is Worse? Who Is Senior?

Part IV Banking Crises, Inflation, and Currency Crashes

10 Banking Crises

11 Default through Debasement: An “Old World Favorite” 12 Inflation and Modern Currency Crashes

An Early History of Inflation Crises Modern Inflation Crises: Regional Comparisons Currency Crashes The Aftermath of High Inflation and Currency Collapses Undoing Domestic Dollarization

Part V The U.S. Subprime Meltdown and the Second Great Contraction

14 The Aftermath of Financial Crises

Historical Episodes Revisited The Downturn after a Crisis: Depth and Duration The Fiscal Legacy of Crises Sovereign Risk Comparisons with Experiences from the First Great Contraction in the 1930s Concluding Remarks

Concepts of Contagion Selected Earlier Episodes Common Fundamentals and the Second Great Contraction Are More Spillovers Under Way?

16 Composite Measures of Financial Turmoil

Developing a Composite Index of Crises: The BCDI Index Defining a Global Financial Crisis The Sequencing of Crises: A Prototype Summary

Part VI What Have We Learned?

On Early Warnings of Crises The Role of International Institutions Graduation Some Observations on Policy Responses The Latest Version of the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome

Data Appendixes

A.1. Macroeconomic Time Series A.2. Public Debt A.3. Dates of Banking Crises A.4. Historical Summaries of Banking Crises

Notes References Name Index Subject Index