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Index
The Math of Hold’em About Dimat Enterprises, Inc. Our Books About the Authors Collin Moshman Douglas Zare Acknowledgements Introduction Part One Introduction Pot Odds Expected Value Expected Value in Poker Relative Expected Value Definition of +EV Drilling Down Conclusion on EV Effective Stack Depth Counting Hand Combinations Basic Probabilities Pre-flop Ranges Flop Hitting the Flop Dangerous Ranks River Outs to Percentages 2-to-4 Rule Backdoor Draws and Redraws Winning Without Improving Percentages to Odds Calling Decisions Based on Outs, Odds, and Percentages Implied Odds Reverse Implied Odds Hot and Cold Equity Pre-flop Match-Ups Ranges Re-steals Post-flop Domination Overpairs Draws Gutshot Gutshot + Overcard Gutshot + Overcards Open-Ended Straight Draw Double Gutshot and an Overcard Pair and Open-Ended Straight Draw Flush Draw Flush Draw vs. Flush Draw Pair and Flush Draw Pair and a Flush Draw vs. Straight Gutshot-straight and Flush draw Straight and Flush Draw vs. Straight Straight and Flush Draw vs. King-High and Gutshot Straight and Flush Draw Overcards Overcards vs. Pair Overcards vs. Counterfeitable Pair Overcards and Backdoor-Flush Draw vs. Pair Sets Set vs. Top Pair Top Kicker Low Full House vs. Trips Set vs. Gutshot Set vs. Flush Draw Set vs. Flush Set vs. Set Miscellaneous Examples Top and Bottom Pair vs. Top Pair Top Kicker Top Two Pair vs. Top Pair Top Kicker Straight vs. Trips and Flush Draw Straight vs. Straight and Flush Draw Post-flop Equity vs. Ranges A-K Unimproved Top Pair Top Kicker Set vs. Top Pair or Better Two-Pair Hands on a Coordinated Flop Unimproved on the River Post-flop Equity Against Random Hands Other Factors Conditional Probability and Bayes’ Theorem Sklansky Dollar Accounting[5] Traps Part Two Introduction Equity against a Pre-flop Range Equity against a Post-flop Range Making the Fold or Call Decision EV of Value Bets and Bluffs Determining the EV of a Semibluff All-in Pre-flop Showing an Immediate Profit Later Profit Metagame Math Split-Pot Math More Expected Value Examples Common Mistakes Using a Bad Baseline The Sunk-Cost Fallacy Philosophy Part Three Introduction Rock-Paper-Scissors (Roshambo) Nash Equilibrium Note of Caution Sequential Rock-Paper-Scissors The Game of Chicken Sequential Chicken Basic Bluffing Game Drilling Down Deviations Mixed Strategies in Models, but Pure Strategies in Poker Bettor Strength Bet Size Bluffing in No-Limit Caller Strength Showdown Value Value Bluffs Bluffing Two Streets Choosing a Bet Size Bluffing Three Streets Complications Conclusion Part Four Introduction Blind Levels High Blinds Medium Blinds Low Blinds Adjusting to Future Blind Increases Re-stealing Tournament Equity Independent Chip Model (ICM) Sit-and-go Tournaments Calling Pushes/Bubble Math Converting Chips to Cash Heads Up Adjusting for Antes Effective Big Blinds Heads-Up Push/Fold Strategies Satellites Part Five Introduction Standard Deviation Standard Deviations in Poker Central Limit Theorem The Long Run How Rapidly Do Statistics Converge? Downswings Looking Backwards Downswing Formulas Bankroll Management For Winning Players Only Goals Psychology Kelly Criterion[16] The Key Bankroll Formula Applying the Key Formula Instantaneous Risk of Ruin Moving up Stages Calculations Splitting Tables across Stakes Multitabling Flawed Bankroll Management Ideas Fixed Number of Buy-ins Stop-Losses Anecdotal Downswings Part Six Introduction Beating the Rake Cash Games Sets What Can Go Wrong? Not Getting to See a Flop Behind with Flopped Set Not Getting Paid Off Being Outdrawn Ideal Conditions Favorable Conditions The 5-10 Rule Curtis vs. Farha Revisited Set-Mining Tips Combating Set-Miners Hit-to-Win Math When Fit-or-Fold is Correct Logic Math versus Instincts The Free Card Play Bet Sizing Part Seven Introduction Poker Equity Calculators Hold’em Manager (HEM) Heads-Up Display (HUD) Results Tracking Database Analysis Finding Leaks Using Software Extreme or Happy Medium? Aggregated Statistics Averages vs. Totals Linked Categories Linked Statistics Blinds Social Statistics Cardrunners EV ICM Explorer[18] SitNGo Wizard Note of Caution Nash Equilibrium Calculator Appendix - Hand Rankings Dimat Enterprises Foreign Translations Other Books From Dimat Enterprises, Inc Poker Mindset: Essential Attitudes for Poker Success Peak Performance Poker Small Stakes No-Limit Hold’em Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time Volume 2
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