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Index
Title Page
Epigraph
Table of Contents
Preface
Introduction
PART ONE - The Global Economy and Developing Countries
1. 1950: The Start of a Remarkable Century
2. Static Views of a Changing World
3. Postwar Changes in the Global Economy
A Study in Contrasts
The Overall Picture After World War II
Economists’ Forecasts
4. The Origins of the Global Economy
A Brief History of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the World Trade Organization (WTO)
Small Steps Toward a Global Economy
5. Economic Growth
Why Are We Interested in Growth?
Leadership and Politics
Where Does Growth Come From?
Parallel Development: Prerequisites in Small Steps
6. Common Questions About the Developing World and the Global Economy
Foreign Aid and Growth
Where Is the Income in the Global Economy?
Poverty in the Developing Economies?
How Big Is the Chinese Economy?
Where Is India in Relation to China?
PART TWO - Sustained High Growth in the Developing World
7. The High-Growth Developing Countries in the Postwar Period
8. The Opening of the Global Economy
9. Knowledge Transfer and Catch-up Growth in Developing Countries
Tangible and Intangible Assets
Intellectual Property
10. Global Demand and Catch-up Growth
11. The Internal Dynamics of Sustained High Growth
12. Key Internal Ingredients of Sustained High-Growth Recipes
Reliance on Markets and Incentives
Growth Is Driven by Continual Structural Change
Protecting People and Not Jobs
Investment and Savings
Savings Matter
Public-Sector Investment: Education and Infrastructure as Public Goods
Malnutrition Among Children
The Productive Deployment of Underutilized Resources
Urbanization
Inclusiveness and Equity
13. Opening Up: An Issue of Speed and Sequencing
14. The Washington Consensus and the Role of Government
15. Managing One’s Currency in the Course of Growth
16. The Middle-Income Transition
17. The Political, Leadership, and Governance Underpinnings of Growth
Economic Freedom
Growth and the Form of Government
18. Low-Growth Economies in the Developing World
19. Natural Resource Wealth and Growth
20. The Challenge for Small States
21. The Adding-Up Problem
PART THREE - The Crisis and Its Aftermath
22. Emerging Markets During and After the Global Crisis
23. Instability in the Global Economy and Lessons from the Crisis
Periodic Instability
Self-Regulation
24. Stimulus in the Crisis and the Need for Cooperative Behavior
25. Rebalancing the Global Economy and Its Consequences for Growth
The Forward-Looking Version of Global Imbalances
Surpluses and Reserve Accumulation in Developing Countries
The Excess-Savings Issue
26. The Excess-Savings Challenge in China
27. The Openness of the Global System and the WTO
28. Legacies of the Crisis: Slow Growth and Sovereign-Debt Issues in Advanced Countries
29. Periodic Systemic Risk and Investment Behavior
Non-Stationary Components of Overall Risk
Responding to Periodic Systemic Risk
Regulatory Reform
Liquidity and Risk
What Does This Mean for Investment Strategy?
PART FOUR - The Future of Growth
30. Can the Emerging Economies Sustain High Growth?
31. China and India
32. China’s Structural Challenges
33. India’s Growth, Diversification, and Urbanization
34. Brazil’s Growth Reset
35. Energy and Growth
36. The Challenge of Climate Change and Developing-Country Growth
Developing Countries
The Data
How Do We Get to Safe Levels Over Time?
Implementation
Carbon Credit Trading
37. Information Technology and the Integration of the Global Economy
Fixed and Cell-Phone Penetration
History
The Economic Impacts of Network-Based Information Technology
Automation
Search, Information, and Transactions
Is There a Downside to All This?
The Internet Bubble
Accessing Human Talent Globally
The Distribution of Benefits
Cell Phones and the Developing World
38. European Integration and Transnational Governance
39. Global Governance in a Multispeed World
Global Governance in the Run-up to the Global Financial Crisis
The Global Crisis Response: Effectiveness
Postcrisis Global Policy Response: Dilution
Looking Forward
Management of the Global Economy in the Past Twenty-five Years
How Can We Make Progress on the New Architecture?
The Global Economy at a Crossroads
40. The G20, the Advanced Countries, and Global Growth
Growth and Employment Problems in Advanced Countries
Global Coordination
41. Sustaining Growth: The Second Half Century of Convergence
Also by Michael Spence
Notes
Index
Copyright Page
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