Eclipse by Subramanian, Arvind -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

Title Page About the Author Copyright Page List of Tables List of Figures List of Boxes Preface Acknowledgments Introduction 1. A Brief History of Economic Dominance

Systemic Manifestations of US Economic Dominance Defining Dominance and Power

2. Quantification and Validation of Economic Dominance

Identifying the Potential Attributes of Economic Dominance Occam Razorization: Narrowing the List Measuring the Three Determinants Validating Economic Dominance Weighting and Constructing the Index of Economic Dominance Results: Economic Dominance in the Past

3. Quantifying Currency Dominance

Definition Benefits and Costs to the Country Issuing the Reserve Currency Short History What Determines Reserve Currency Status? Appendix 3A: A Regression Analysis of Reserve Currency Status

4. Forces Driving Dominance: Convergence and Gravity

Convergence of the Previously Poor Convergence of the Populous, Previously Poor Projecting Numbers: Background Analytics Results Caveat Back to History: Economics Catches Up with Demographics Conclusion Appendix 4A: Projecting GDP Growth Based on Purchasing Power Parity and Market Exchange Rates Appendix 4B: Trade Projections Based on the Gravity Model

5. Projecting Economic and Currency Dominance

Economic Dominance in the Future The Future of the Dollar and the Renminbi The Renminbi When the Chips Are Down Conclusion Appendix 5A: Robustness of the Index of Economic Dominance

6. A Historical Perspective on China’s Distinctive Dominance

Precocious or Premature: Can a Not-the-Richest China Be Dominant? China’s Trade and Openness Outcomes in Historical Power Perspective Chinese Mercantilism in Historical Perspective

7. Guarding Against Rash Prophesying

China’s Growth: Repeating Mistakes? Looking Back Realism of Trade Projections Conclusion

8. Economic Cooperation with a Rising China

How Many Country Groupings Are There in 2011? Historical Parallels Prospects for Cooperation Leading Up to Chinese Hegemony

9. China as the New Raison d’Être for Reviving Multilateralism

Limits to the Efficacy of Trade Reciprocity with a Dominant China Alternative Approaches: Promiscuous and Hostile Bilateralism Asian-Centered Regionalism as a Medium Impediments to Revived Multilateralism A “China Round” for Tethering China Conclusion

Postscripts: America Resurgent or America Vulnerable? References Index

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