Intelligence Analysis · A Target-Centric Approach by Clark, Robert M. -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

Title Copyright Contents Tables, Figures, and Boxes Preface Introduction

Why We Fail

Failure to Share Information Failure to Analyze Collected Material Objectively Failure of the Customer to Act on Intelligence

What the Book Is About Summary

Part 1 Introduction to Target-Centric Analysis

1 The Intelligence Process

The Nature of Intelligence: Reducing Uncertainty in Conflict The Traditional Intelligence Cycle Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process The Target

The Target as a Complex System The Complex Target as a Network

Summary

2 Defining the Intelligence Problem

Statement of the Problem The Problem Definition Product Detailed Problem Definition: Strategies-to-Task Strategies-to-Task and Complex Problems Example: Defining the Counterintelligence Problem Summary

3 An Analysis Approach to the Target

The Concept of a Model Using Target Models for Analysis Counterintelligence Analysis

Targets Operations Linkages

Target Model Combinations

Submodels Collateral Models

Summary

4 The Analytic Spectrum

The Conflict Spectrum

Strategic Intelligence Operational Intelligence Tactical Intelligence

The Temporal Analysis Spectrum

Long-Term Research Versus Current Intelligence The Tyranny of Current Intelligence Fusion Centers Capabilities, Plans, and Intentions

Indications and Warning Summary

Part 2 Synthesis: Creating the Model

5 Overview of Models in Intelligence

Creating a Conceptual Model Generic Models

Lists Curves Comparative Modeling (Benchmarking) Pattern Models Relationship Models Profiles Process Models Simulation Models

Combination Models

Geospatial Models Human Terrain Models Space-Time Models

Geographic Profiling Summary

6 Sources of Intelligence Information

Existing Reports A Taxonomy of Intelligence Sources Literal Intelligence Sources

Open Source Human Intelligence Communications Intelligence Cyber Collection

Nonliteral Intelligence

Remote and In Situ Sensing Imaging and Spectral Sensing Passive Radiofrequency Intelligence Radar Intelligence Geophysical and Nuclear Intelligence Materiel and Materials Collection Biometrics

Summary

7 Evaluating and Collating Data

Evaluating Evidence

Evaluating the Source Evaluating the Communications Channel Evaluating the Credentials of Evidence Pitfalls in Evaluating Evidence

Combining Evidence

Convergent and Divergent Evidence Redundant Evidence Formal Methods for Combining Evidence

Summary

8 Collection Strategies

The U.S. Collection Management Problem The Problem Breakdown and Target Model Relationship Identifying Gaps Developing the Collection Strategy

Using Existing Collection Assets Dealing with Enigmas

Planning for Future Collection: Filling the Long-Term Gaps

Executing Collection Strategies

Summary

9 Denial, Deception, and Signaling

Denial and Deception Defense Against D&D: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods Higher Level Denial and Deception

The Man Who Never Was The Cuban Missile Crisis The Farewell Dossier The Indian Nuclear Test

Countering Denial and Deception Signaling Analytic Tradecraft in a World of D&D Summary

Part 3 Predictive Analysis

10 Analytic Methodologies

Structured Argumentation

Wigmore’s Charting Method Bayesian Techniques for Combining Evidence

Competitive and Alternative Target Models

Competitive Analysis Alternative Analysis The Role of Information Technology

Summary

11 Prediction

Introduction to Prediction Convergent and Divergent Phenomena The Predictive Approach

Introduction to Force Synthesis/Analysis Qualitative Force Synthesis/Analysis

Scenarios

Why Use Scenarios? Types of Scenarios Scenario Perspectives How to Construct Scenarios Indicators and the Role of Intelligence A Scenario Exercise: The Global Information Environment in 2020

Summary

12 Predictive Techniques

Extrapolation

Extrapolation Techniques Correlation and Regression Limitations of Extrapolation

Projection

Generating Alternatives Influence Trees or Diagrams Influence Nets Making Probability Estimates Sensitivity Analysis

Forecasting

The Nonlinear Approach to Forecasting Techniques and Analytic Tools of Forecasting Evaluating Forecasts

Summary

13 Shaping Forces

Inertia Countervailing Forces Contamination Synergy Feedback

Strength Time Delay

Regulation Summary

14 Organizational Analysis

Structure

Organizational Size and Capabilities Type of Structure Network Analysis

Function

Rational Aspect Cultural Aspect Emotional Aspect Collective Decision Making

Process

Operations Research Schedule Cost

Summary

15 Technology and Systems Analysis

Technology Assessment

Future Performance Innovation Technology Use, Transfer, and Diffusion

Systems Analysis

Future Systems Performance Analyses

Systems Simulation

Simulations Used in Intelligence Analysis Creating and Running a Simulation

Summary

16 The Intelligence Customer

Introduction

Policymakers Congress Business Leaders Military Leadership Military Operations Homeland Security Law Enforcement What All Customers Want

Analyst-Customer Interaction

Analyst as Communicator: Getting the Customer to Understand the Message Analyst as Advocate: Getting Buy-In The Defense Analysis Challenge

Presenting Analysis Results

Support Every Analytic Conclusion Write or Brief with a Purpose Separate Facts from Analysis Get to the Point Write or Brief to Inform, Not to Impress Make It Easy and Enjoyable to Read or Listen To Write as You Would Talk Avoid Acronyms Use Graphics

Summary

17 Managing Analysis

Introduction

Who Are the Customers, and What Do They Need? What Should the Unit Produce?

Structure

Topical or Regional Structure? Fusion Centers To Firewall or Not to Firewall

Process

The Analyst Recruiting and Developing Analysts Planning the Analysis Project Managing Team Efforts Peer and Management Review Collaborative Tools Sharing Versus Protection of Sources and Methods

Limits and Boundaries

Limits Boundaries

Function

Pressures Some Causes of Failures Evaluating the Product

Summary

Appendix I: A Tale of Two NIEs

The Yugoslavia NIE

The Setting First Draft (the “Muddle Through” NIE) Second Draft: Force Field Analysis The Customer View

The Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE

Poor Problem Definition Poor Evaluation of Sources and Evidence Failure to Consider Alternative Target Models Poor Analytic Methodology Poor Interaction with Collectors and Customers

Appendix II: Example Project Plan

Problem Definition Précis Research Plan

Index About the Author

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