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Index
Foreword Preface Introduction
Part I — Reminiscences of a Trader
1 From Hunger Goose Nickels No Little League 2 To the Real World Frat Life Is Gin a Drink or a Card Game? Very Little Class A Glimpse of the Future(s) Out of School You’re in the Army Now The Brain Watchers and the Butterfly 3 Wood That I Would Trade Chicago Learning the Trading Floor Life in the Fast Lane Zenith 4 Spectacular Speculator Timber Tumbles The Arabian Horse Fiasco Soybean Oil Spreads Road to Riches The Death Knell Phone Call Soybean Oil Gets Slippery Vertigo Nadir 5 The Quest How Do The Pros Make Money? Advice and Dissent Averaging a Loss Top and Bottom Picking Spreading Up Losses
Part II — Lessons Learned
Market Lore to Ignore? 6 The Psychological Dynamics of Loss External vs. Internal Losses How Market Losses Become Internal Losses The Five Stages of Internal Loss The Five Stages of Internal Loss and the Market Participant Discrete Events vs. Continuous Processes 7 The Psychological Fallacies of Risk Inherent Risk Created Risk Behavioral Characteristics Determine the Activity A Dangerous Combination Psychological Fallacies Some Examples Profit Motive or Prophet Motive? 8 The Psychological Crowd Emotions and the Crowd Conventional Views of the Crowd What is a Crowd? Characteristics of a Crowd Two Psychological Crowd Models The Illusion Model Emotions Hope/Fear Paradox Mania and Panic: Where Hope and Fear Meet the Crowd
Part III — Tying It All Together
9 Rules, Tools and Fools Tying It All Together Dealing with the Uncertainty of the Future Decision-Making The Plan A Plan and Objectivity Conclusion What If . . . ? Postscript Appendix Bibliography
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