Understanding Uncertainty by Lindley, Dennis V. -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

Cover Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics Title Page Copyright Preface Prologue Chapter 1: Uncertainty

1.1 Introduction 1.2 Examples 1.3 Suppression of Uncertainty 1.4 The Removal of Uncertainty 1.5 The Uses of Uncertainty 1.6 The Calculus of Uncertainty 1.7 Beliefs 1.8 Decision Analysis

Chapter 2: Stylistic Questions

2.1 Reason 2.2 Unreason 2.3 Facts 2.4 Emotion 2.5 Normative and Descriptive Approaches 2.6 Simplicity 2.7 Mathematics 2.8 Writing 2.9 Mathematics Tutorial

Chapter 3: Probability

3.1 Measurement 3.2 Randomness 3.3 A Standard for Probability 3.4 Probability 3.5 Coherence 3.6 Belief 3.7 Complementary Event 3.8 Odds 3.9 Knowledge Base 3.10 Examples 3.11 Retrospect

Chapter 4: Two Events

4.1 Two Events 4.2 Conditional Probability 4.3 Independence 4.4 Association 4.5 Examples 4.6 Supposition and Fact 4.7 Seeing and Doing

Chapter 5: The Rules of Probability

5.1 Combinations of Events 5.2 Addition Rule 5.3 Multiplication Rule 5.4 The Basic Rules 5.5 Examples 5.6 Extension of the Conversation 5.7 Dutch Books 5.8 Scoring Rules 5.9 Logic Again 5.10 Decision Analysis 5.11 The Prisoners' Dilemma 5.12 The Calculus and Reality 5.13 Closure

Chapter 6: Bayes Rule

6.1 Transposed Conditionals 6.2 Learning 6.3 Bayes Rule 6.4 Medical Diagnosis 6.5 Odds Form of Bayes Rule 6.6 Forensic Evidence 6.7 Likelihood Ratio 6.8 Cromwell's Rule 6.9 A Tale of two Urns 6.10 Ravens 6.11 Diagnosis and Related Matters 6.12 Information

Chapter 7: Measuring Uncertainty

7.1 Classical Form 7.2 Frequency Data 7.3 Exchangeability 7.4 Bernoulli Series 7.5 De Finetti's Result 7.6 Large Numbers 7.7 Belief and Frequency 7.8 Chance

Chapter 8: Three Events

8.1 The Rules of Probability 8.2 Simpson's Paradox 8.3 Source of the Paradox 8.4 Experimentation 8.5 Randomization 8.6 Exchangeability 8.7 Spurious Association 8.8 Independence 8.9 Conclusions

Chapter 9: Variation

9.1 Variation and Uncertainty 9.2 Binomial Distribution 9.3 Expectation 9.4 Poisson Distribution 9.5 Spread 9.6 Variability as an Experimental Tool 9.7 Probability and Chance 9.8 Pictorial Representation 9.9 Probability Densities 9.10 The Normal Distribution 9.11 Variation as a Natural Phenomenon 9.12 Ellsberg's Paradox

Chapter 10: Decision Analysis

10.1 Beliefs and Actions 10.2 Comparison of Consequences 10.3 Medical Example 10.4 Maximization of Expected Utility 10.5 More on Utility 10.6 Some Complications 10.7 Reason and Emotion 10.8 Numeracy 10.9 Expected Utility 10.10 Decision Trees 10.11 The Art and Science of Decision Analysis 10.12 Further Complications 10.13 Combination of Features 10.14 Legal Applications

Chapter 11: Science

11.1 Scientific Method 11.2 Science and Education 11.3 Data Uncertainty 11.4 Theories 11.5 Uncertainty of a Theory 11.6 The Bayesian Development 11.7 Modification of Theories 11.8 Models 11.9 Hypothesis Testing 11.10 Significance Tests 11.11 Repetition 11.12 Summary

Chapter 12: Examples

12.1 Introduction 12.2 CARDS 12.3 The Three Doors 12.4 The Problem of Two Daughters 12.5 Two More Daughters and Cardano 12.6 The two Envelopes 12.7 Y2K 12.8 UFOs 12.9 Conglomerability 12.10 Efron's Dice

Chapter 13: Probability Assessment

13.1 Nonrepeatable Events 13.2 Two Events 13.3 Coherence 13.4 Probabilistic Reasoning 13.5 Trickle Down 13.6 Summary

Chapter 14: Statistics

14.1 Bayesian Statistics 14.2 A Bayesian Example 14.3 Frequency Statistics 14.4 Significance Tests 14.5 Betting 14.6 Finance

Epilogue Subject Index Index of Examples Index of Notations