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Imperial Library
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Index
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Preface
Acknowledgments
About the Author
Introduction: The Market Wants to Be Your Friend
Mistake #1: Market Timing
The Idiots
The Liars
Why Is It So Hard to Beat the Market?
The Masses Get It Wrong, Over and Over Again
The Media Get It Wrong, Over and Over Again
Economists Get It Wrong, Over and Over Again
Investment Managers Get It Wrong, Over and Over Again
Newsletters Get It Wrong, Over and Over Again
Your Buddy
Strategies That Don't Sound Like Market Timing but Are Market Timing—Oh, and They Don't Work, Either
What Smart Investors Have to Say on Market Timing
Knowing All This, Why Would Anyone Market Time?
Corrections
Bear Markets: An Overview
When Bear Markets “Turn,” They Make People on the Sidelines Look Silly
The Market Is Volatile—Get Used to It
You Can't Wait for Consumers to Feel Good
Learning to Accept the Bear Markets
Miscalculating the Risk of Market Timing
But What If I Am Perfect?
Lump Sum Investing versus Dollar Cost Averaging
Learning to Fly
Avoiding Mistake #1—Market Timing
Mistake #2: Active Trading
The History of Active Trading
Active Investment Managers Lose to Indexing
Fisher Investments
Legg Mason Value
Jim Cramer
Newsletters Lose to Indexing
Active Mutual Funds Lose to Indexing
Survivor Bias (a.k.a. Mutual Funds Perform Even Worse Than the Data Suggests)
What About the Winners, Huh? What About the Winners?!
Hedge Funds Lose to Indexing
Endowments—Misperception of Performance
Venture Capital (Sounds Sexy but Usually a Dog)
The Taxman Commeth (a.k.a. Dear Goodness, It Gets Worse)
Portfolio Activity Hurts Performance
But Doesn't Active Management Work in a Down Market?
Why Indexes Win
S&P 500, Here I Come!
Avoiding Mistake #2—Active Trading
Mistake #3: Misunderstanding Performance and Financial Information
Misunderstanding #1—Judging Performance in a Vacuum
Misunderstanding #2—Believing the Financial Media Exists to Help You Make Smart Decisions (a.k.a. the Media Is Killing You)1
Misunderstanding #3—Believing the Market Cares about Today
Misunderstanding #4—Believing an All-Time High Means the Market Is Due for a Pullback
Misunderstanding #5—Believing Correlation Equals Causation
October Is the Worst Month to Invest
Sell in May and Go Away
Misunderstanding #6—Believing Financial News Is Actionable
Misunderstanding #7—Believing Republicans Are Better for the Market Than Democrats
Misunderstanding #8—Overestimating the Impact of a Manager
Misunderstanding #9—Believing Market Drops Are the Time to Get Defensive
Avoiding Mistake #3—Misunderstanding Performance and Financial Information
Mistake #4: Letting Yourself Get in the Way
Fear, Greed, and Herding
The Overconfidence Effect
Confirmation Bias
Anchoring
Loss Aversion
Mental Accounting
Recency Bias
Negativity Bias
The Gambler
Avoiding Mistake #4—Letting Yourself Get in the Way
Mistake #5: Working with the Wrong Advisor
Most Advisors Will Do Far More Harm Than Good
Advisor Selection Issue #1—Custody
Advisor Selection Issue #2—Conflict
Advisor Selection Issue #3—Competence
A Final Thought on Advisors—Principles
Avoiding Mistake #5—Choosing the Wrong Advisor
Mistake #6: Getting It Right
Rule #1: Have a Clearly Defined Plan
Rule #2—Avoid Asset Classes That Diminish Results
Rule #3—Use Stocks and Bonds as the Core Building Blocks of Your Intelligently Constructed Portfolio
Putting It All Together
Rule #4—Take a Global Approach
Rule #5—Use Primarily Index-Based Positions
Rule #6—Don't Blow Out Your Existing Holdings
Rule #7—Asset Location Matters
Rule #8—Be Sure You Can Live with Your Allocation
Rule #9—Rebalance
Rule #10—Revisit the Plan
The Ultimate Rule—Don't Mess It Up!
Portfolio Examples
A Path to Success—Intelligent Portfolio Construction
The Ultimate Mistake
Conclusion: Let's Roll!
References
Index
End User License Agreement
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