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Index
Cover Title Page Copyright Preface Acknowledgments About the Author Introduction: The Market Wants to Be Your Friend Mistake #1: Market Timing
The Idiots The Liars Why Is It So Hard to Beat the Market? The Masses Get It Wrong, Over and Over Again The Media Get It Wrong, Over and Over Again Economists Get It Wrong, Over and Over Again Investment Managers Get It Wrong, Over and Over Again Newsletters Get It Wrong, Over and Over Again Your Buddy Strategies That Don't Sound Like Market Timing but Are Market Timing—Oh, and They Don't Work, Either What Smart Investors Have to Say on Market Timing Knowing All This, Why Would Anyone Market Time? Corrections Bear Markets: An Overview When Bear Markets “Turn,” They Make People on the Sidelines Look Silly The Market Is Volatile—Get Used to It You Can't Wait for Consumers to Feel Good Learning to Accept the Bear Markets Miscalculating the Risk of Market Timing But What If I Am Perfect? Lump Sum Investing versus Dollar Cost Averaging Learning to Fly Avoiding Mistake #1—Market Timing
Mistake #2: Active Trading
The History of Active Trading Active Investment Managers Lose to Indexing Fisher Investments Legg Mason Value Jim Cramer Newsletters Lose to Indexing Active Mutual Funds Lose to Indexing Survivor Bias (a.k.a. Mutual Funds Perform Even Worse Than the Data Suggests) What About the Winners, Huh? What About the Winners?! Hedge Funds Lose to Indexing Endowments—Misperception of Performance Venture Capital (Sounds Sexy but Usually a Dog) The Taxman Commeth (a.k.a. Dear Goodness, It Gets Worse) Portfolio Activity Hurts Performance But Doesn't Active Management Work in a Down Market? Why Indexes Win S&P 500, Here I Come! Avoiding Mistake #2—Active Trading
Mistake #3: Misunderstanding Performance and Financial Information
Misunderstanding #1—Judging Performance in a Vacuum Misunderstanding #2—Believing the Financial Media Exists to Help You Make Smart Decisions (a.k.a. the Media Is Killing You)1 Misunderstanding #3—Believing the Market Cares about Today Misunderstanding #4—Believing an All-Time High Means the Market Is Due for a Pullback Misunderstanding #5—Believing Correlation Equals Causation October Is the Worst Month to Invest Sell in May and Go Away Misunderstanding #6—Believing Financial News Is Actionable Misunderstanding #7—Believing Republicans Are Better for the Market Than Democrats Misunderstanding #8—Overestimating the Impact of a Manager Misunderstanding #9—Believing Market Drops Are the Time to Get Defensive Avoiding Mistake #3—Misunderstanding Performance and Financial Information
Mistake #4: Letting Yourself Get in the Way
Fear, Greed, and Herding The Overconfidence Effect Confirmation Bias Anchoring Loss Aversion Mental Accounting Recency Bias Negativity Bias The Gambler Avoiding Mistake #4—Letting Yourself Get in the Way
Mistake #5: Working with the Wrong Advisor
Most Advisors Will Do Far More Harm Than Good Advisor Selection Issue #1—Custody Advisor Selection Issue #2—Conflict Advisor Selection Issue #3—Competence A Final Thought on Advisors—Principles Avoiding Mistake #5—Choosing the Wrong Advisor
Mistake #6: Getting It Right
Rule #1: Have a Clearly Defined Plan Rule #2—Avoid Asset Classes That Diminish Results Rule #3—Use Stocks and Bonds as the Core Building Blocks of Your Intelligently Constructed Portfolio Putting It All Together Rule #4—Take a Global Approach Rule #5—Use Primarily Index-Based Positions Rule #6—Don't Blow Out Your Existing Holdings Rule #7—Asset Location Matters Rule #8—Be Sure You Can Live with Your Allocation Rule #9—Rebalance Rule #10—Revisit the Plan The Ultimate Rule—Don't Mess It Up! Portfolio Examples A Path to Success—Intelligent Portfolio Construction
The Ultimate Mistake Conclusion: Let's Roll! References Index End User License Agreement
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