Brilliant Mistakes by Schoemaker, Paul J.H. -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

Dedication in Memoriam Contents Preface Introduction: When Wrong Is Right

“With Every Mistake We Must Surely Be Learning”

What’s Your View?

The Path to Brilliance

Part One: Rethinking Mistakes Chapter 1: Context Matters: Defining Mistakes

Defining Mistakes

Theory Reality

Temporality: Vantage Points in Time Chance: As Opposed to Skill Treatment Effects: Confounding Influences Ex Post Facto Missing Data: The Road Not Taken

Who Makes the Call?

Chapter 2: Not All Errors Are Equal: Brilliant Mistakes

Mistakes with Potential

Inventors, or Professional Mistake Makers?

Questioning Assumptions Types of Errors, and Their Relative Benefits

Chapter 3: Why and How We Err: Causes and Remedies

Developing a Forensic Mind-set Innocent Mistakes Drowning in a Pool of Subjectivity

Emotional Factors Cognitive Gaps

The 4 Key Phases in Decision Making

Phase 1: Decision Framing Phase 2: Intelligence Gathering Phase 3: Coming to Conclusions Phase 4: Learning from Experience

Better Decision Making

Part Two: Designing for Mistakes Chapter 4: Faster Learning: A Practical Road Map

Entrepreneurs: Expert Mistake Makers To Err Can Be Divine Disconfirming Evidence Disciplined, Deliberate Mistake-Making Performance versus Learning

Chapter 5: Deliberate Mistakes: Creating Portals of Discovery

Making Mistakes on Purpose Challenging the Existing Model The Paradox of Deliberate Mistakes Practical Applications Conditions That Favor Deliberate Mistakes

There is much to gain relative to the cost of the mistake. Decisions are made repeatedly. The environment is in flux. The problem is complex and solutions numerous. Your experience with a problem is limited.

Exploring Your Willingness to Make Mistakes Ready for Deliberate Mistakes? An Open Mind Is a Fertile Mind Column Legend

Chapter 6: Portfolio of Mistakes: Hedging Conventional Wisdom

The Benefits of a Portfolio

Portfolio Thinking Goes Against the Grain Placing Many Small Bets: The Portfolio Approach Managing Diversity: The Key to Portfolio Thinking

Part Three: Putting It All Together Chapter 7: The Prepared Mind: Detecting Anomalies

A Nobel from the Trash Michelangelo of the Microbes From Epiphany to Utility Flashes of Brilliance Peripheral Vision

Epilogue: Musing About Mistakes

How Successful People View Mistakes Courting Error and Mistake In Conclusion

Appendix A: Einstein’s 23 Mistakes Appendix B: Expected Utility Analysis Appendix C: Portfolio Justifications Appendix D: How Your Mind Plays Tricks

Filtering Distorted Inference Bolstering

Acknowledgments Notes About the Author